CN114897319A - Method for establishing bearing capacity evaluation and early warning index system of water resource environment - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for establishing a bearing capacity evaluation and early warning index system of a water resource environment, which comprises the following steps: constructing an index library according to documents based on a frequency analysis method; screening indexes in an index library according to a preset rule to obtain candidate indexes; fusing the candidate indexes to obtain fusion information; analyzing the water management process according to the candidate indexes and the fusion information, and selecting the indexes for representing to obtain final indexes; and analyzing the causal relationship of the final indexes and classifying the indexes based on the logic framework to obtain an index system. By using the invention, the system construction can be completed more scientifically, and the actual requirements of water area space management and ecological civilization construction assessment can be met. The invention is used as a method for constructing a bearing capacity evaluation and early warning index system of a water resource environment, and can be widely applied to the field of environmental science.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of environmental science, in particular to a method for constructing a bearing capacity evaluation and early warning index system of a water resource environment.
Background
The evaluation and early warning of the bearing capacity of the resource environment are the basis of the planning and management of the territorial space, and can be used as one of the assessment systems of ecological civilized construction, wherein water is an important component of the resource environment. The construction of the existing water resource environment bearing capacity evaluation and early warning index system uses a system analysis method and a model framework method more, and cannot be linked with the concepts of ecological civilization construction and water ecological environment protection. The system analysis method is used for selecting indexes in a subsystem division mode such as population-economy-water resource-water environment, society-economy-water resource-water environment, water resource quantity-socioeconomic-water consumption level-water resource quality-ecological environment and the like; the frame model rule only carries out index selection around model frames such as PSR, DPSIR, VOR and the like, the construction mode of the index system lacks a core guidance concept or is not matched with the latest ecological environment protection and treatment concept, the sub-system division is not comprehensive and unscientific or fails to accurately cover all links of water management, and the actual requirements of water area space management and ecological civilization construction assessment cannot be met practically.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention aims to provide a method for constructing a water resource environment bearing capacity evaluation and early warning index system, which can more scientifically finish the construction of the system and meet the actual requirements of water area space management and ecological civilization construction assessment.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows: a method for constructing a bearing capacity evaluation and early warning index system of a water resource environment comprises the following steps:
constructing an index library according to documents based on a frequency analysis method;
screening indexes in an index library according to a preset rule to obtain candidate indexes;
fusing the candidate indexes to obtain fusion information;
analyzing the water management process according to the candidate indexes and the fusion information, and selecting the indexes for representing to obtain final indexes;
and analyzing the causal relationship of the final indexes and classifying the indexes based on the logic framework to obtain an index system.
Further, the frequency-based analysis method, which is a step of constructing an index library according to a document, specifically includes:
acquiring a water resource environment document and carrying out frequency statistics on indexes in the water resource environment document to obtain a statistical result;
and integrating the indexes with the frequency being greater than the preset threshold value based on the statistical result to construct an index library.
Further, the preset rules include frequency, importance, comparability, relevance, and acquirability.
Further, the step of fusing the candidate indexes to obtain fusion information specifically includes:
reflecting the economic development level according to the production total value of per capita regions and the increase rate of the production total value of regions;
reflecting the population concentration according to population density and the size of the absorbed floating population;
and integrating the economic development level and the population concentration degree to obtain fusion information.
Further, the step of analyzing the water management process according to the candidate index and the fusion information and selecting the index for characterization to obtain the final index specifically includes:
constructing a bearing main body by using water resources, water environment and water ecology;
constructing a bearing object according to the development planning of population, economy and industrial structures of the region;
and analyzing the water management process according to the bearing subject and the bearing object, and selecting the candidate index and the fusion information to obtain a final index.
Further, the water resource in the bearing main body comprises a water supply link, a water using link and a water retention link, and the water environment in the bearing main body comprises a wastewater generation link, a water drainage link and a water treatment link.
Further, the step of analyzing the water management process according to the carrying subject and the carrying object, and selecting the candidate index and the fusion information to obtain the final index specifically includes:
selecting indexes of the inside and outside water quantities to represent a water supply link;
selecting an index representing water consumption link reflecting the utilization efficiency of water resources;
selecting forest coverage and soil and water conservation indexes to represent a water conservation link;
selecting a waste water discharge rate index to represent a waste water generation link;
selecting indexes reflecting the water quality condition of a water body to represent a drainage link;
selecting a wastewater treatment index to represent a water control link;
selecting ecological construction indexes to represent water ecology in the bearing main body;
and selecting population, economy and industrial structure to represent the bearing object. .
Further, the step of analyzing the causal relationship of the final index and classifying the index based on the logical framework to obtain an index system specifically includes:
combing the logical relationship between the index of the bearing subject and the index of the bearing object;
and (4) adapting the final index based on the driving force, the pressure, the state, the influence and the corresponding causal logic chain, and enabling the final index to fall into a logic frame to obtain an index system.
The method has the beneficial effects that: the method combines the current planning and policy, completes the system construction more scientifically, can meet the actual requirements of water area space management and ecological civilization construction assessment, and can reflect the logical relationship among indexes, thereby being beneficial to the subsequent comprehensive evaluation and prediction.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of steps of a method for building a bearing capacity evaluation and early warning index system for a water resource environment according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a diagram of an index library according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic illustration of screening criteria according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of a water management process analysis according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a schematic representation of a selection index representation according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a logical framework diagram of the index architecture in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention is described in further detail below with reference to the figures and the specific embodiments. The step numbers in the following embodiments are provided only for convenience of illustration, the order between the steps is not limited at all, and the execution order of each step in the embodiments can be adapted according to the understanding of those skilled in the art.
As shown in FIG. 1, the invention provides a method for constructing a bearing capacity evaluation and early warning index system of a water resource environment, which comprises the following steps:
s1, constructing an index library according to the literature based on a frequency analysis method;
s1.1, acquiring a water resource environment document and carrying out frequency statistics on indexes in the water resource environment document to obtain a statistical result;
s1.2, integrating the indexes with the frequency being greater than a preset threshold value based on the statistical result, and constructing an index library.
Specifically, referring to fig. 2, the index library includes a document index library and a policy planning index library, the document index library is constructed by referring to a research summary of a predecessor or performing frequency analysis on indexes used in documents, and the policy planning index library is constructed by exhausting existing policy planning related to a water resource environment as much as possible.
S2, screening indexes in the index library according to preset rules to obtain candidate indexes;
specifically, the preset rule includes frequency, importance, comparability, relevance, and acquirability.
And frequency analysis, namely performing frequency analysis on main targets in the related planning of the region, counting and analyzing the frequency of the indexes related to water resources, water environment and water ecology, sequencing the occurrence frequency of the indexes in high and low order, and preferentially selecting the index with higher frequency to determine important management and assessment indexes of a certain region in the period.
Importance analysis, in the related planning, the indexes are generally divided into two indexes, namely a "constraint" index and a "expectation" index. In the related bearing capacity evaluation guideline or technical outline, the listed indexes are "evaluation type indexes". Wherein, the constraint index is the bottom line in the assessment, which has important management and assessment significance, the importance degree is 'extremely important', 'the anticipation' index is 'important', and the importance of the 'evaluation index' in the guideline and technical outline is 'secondary importance'. If a certain index is a constraint index in a certain plan and is an expectation index in another plan, the most strict item is taken, namely the index is determined to be the constraint index.
And the comparability is analyzed, the relative quantity index can scientifically reflect the development degree of the index, and the comparability of the index is increased. Selecting the relative quantity index and the rejection absolute quantity index in the index library. Such as replacing the general population index with the population density.
And the index correlation analysis is performed on indexes in the index database, when a plurality of indexes have correlation, the most representative indexes are reserved, other indexes with higher correlation degree are eliminated, and the information repetition reflected by the indexes is avoided.
The acquirability analysis, the acquisition source of the data includes but is not limited to the statistical yearbook of each region, water resource bulletin, environmental condition bulletin, national economy and social development statistical bulletin, various official data distribution platforms, active government publication, application publication and the like. And analyzing whether the data can be acquired and the difficulty of acquiring the data according to each index.
The screening criteria are shown in FIG. 3.
S3, fusing the candidate indexes to obtain fusion information;
s3.1, reflecting the economic development level according to the production total value of the per capita region and the increase rate of the production total value of the region;
the economic development level, the economic development level is the average human GDP k, the k value is the GDP growth intensity coefficient, and the economic growth intensity is calculated and obtained from the last five years, and the calculation formula is as follows: the economic growth strength is (GDP in the current year/GDP in the first 5 years) ^ (1/5) -1.
The unit of GDP is: billion yuan; the human-average GDP unit is: ten thousand yuan/man. The economic development level index integrates two indexes of the production total value of per capita regions and the increase rate of the production total value of regions for comprehensive reflection, so that the economic development status of the region can be reflected, and the increase activity of the region can be reflected at the same time.
S3.2, reflecting the population concentration according to population density and the absorbed floating population scale;
specifically, the population clustering state of the area is reflected through a population clustering degree index, the index is a comprehensive index, and the population density and the absorbed floating population scale are reflected in two factors. Meanwhile, in an environment control unit defined by 'three lines one single' in Guangdong province, the preferential protection area has the characteristic of being unsuitable for development, and the area of the preferential protection area is subtracted from the area of the administrative area when population density calculation is carried out so as to truly reflect the area of land which can gather population and be developed and utilized in the administrative area. The calculation formula is as follows:
population density d
Population density (number of permanent population) 10000/land area suitable for development and utilization
Area suitable for developing and utilizing land, namely land area-area of environment-priority protection area
The unit of the area of the land area suitable for development and utilization, the land area and the area of the environment priority protection area is as follows: km 2 (ii) a The unit of the number of the permanent population at the end of each market is as follows: ten thousands of people; population density units are: person/km 2 (ii) a d is a population growth weight coefficient, the value of which is measured by population data of nearly five years, and the population growth rate is (the number of the current-year-permanent population/the number of the previous five-year-permanent population-1)/4.
The land area and the permanent population data at the end of each city year are from the annual book of Guangdong statistics, the annual book of special administrative districts of hong Kong and the annual book of special administrative districts of Macau, and the area data of the environmental priority protection area are from the application platform of ' three-line-one-single ' in Guangdong province ' in the ecological environment hall of Guangdong province.
And S3.3, integrating the economic development level and the population concentration degree to obtain fusion information.
S4, analyzing the water management process according to the candidate indexes and the fusion information, and selecting the indexes for characterization to obtain final indexes;
specifically, the evaluation process of the water resource bearing capacity is divided into a bearing subject and a bearing object. The main body (background) of the bearing is water resource, water environment and water ecology; the loaded objects (objects) are the population, economy and industrial structure development plans of a certain area on the premise of ecological civilization construction.
Aiming at the whole process of water management, the bearing main body carries out analysis around the three aspects of water resource, water environment and water ecology around the existing concept of 'three-water coordination' and 'sea-land coordination', and the sea-land water environment is coordinated. Wherein, the water resource and the water environment are analyzed from six links according to a logic chain of 'water supply-use-water retention-wastewater generation-drainage-water control'; the water ecology part is analyzed around the two parts of 'river lake' and 'sea'.
The water resource is closely related to three links of water supply, water use and water retention. The water supply quantity source of a certain area can be divided into domestic and overseas, the domestic is local water resources, the overseas is a diversion project outside the area, and the part is represented by using indexes which reflect the domestic and overseas water quantities. The water utilization process is the consumption of water resources in the social production (including industrial and agricultural) and living processes, the relevant indexes reflecting the utilization efficiency of the water resources are selected for use in the part, the utilization efficiency reflects the water utilization level of the city, and the higher the water utilization efficiency is, the larger the economic and population scale which can be borne by the same water resources is. Water retention refers to conservation and maintenance of water resources, and indexes related to forest coverage, water and soil conservation and the like are selected.
The water environment is closely related to three processes of waste water (generation), water discharge and water control, the seawater generation process refers to the generation of waste water in the production process of industry and agriculture and the generation of domestic sewage in the life of residents, and the related indexes of the waste water generation and discharge rate are selected for representation; in the drainage process, the pressure generated by the discharge of waste water and sewage into the water environment influences the water quality of rivers, lakes and coastal areas, and relevant indexes reflecting the water quality condition are selected for characterization. The water treatment is characterized in that the influence of the water treatment on the water environment is reduced by means of relevant waste water treatment and the like in the society, and relevant indexes of waste water treatment are selected for representation.
The water ecology aspect is analyzed from two aspects of rivers, lakes and sea areas, and the ecological construction of the rivers, the lakes and the sea can protect the rivers, the lakes and the sea, recover aquatic vegetation in the water areas and improve the self-purification capacity and the biodiversity of the water bodies. And selecting indexes related to ecological construction of rivers, lakes and gulfs for expression.
The bearing object, namely an object supported by water resources, water environment and water ecology, is generally represented as a population, economic and industrial structure in the development of a regional society, and the bearing object is characterized by selecting indexes related to the bearing object.
According to the whole water management process, indexes which are high in frequency, high in importance and representative and have operability and can be obtained from the policy planning index library are selected in sequence and preferentially for representation, and if indexes for representing a certain link of the water management process are lacked, the indexes in the document high-frequency index library are used for representation. For the higher importance, but because the data is difficult to obtain and the index of operability of quantitative calculation is lacked, the qualitative evaluation mode can be used for discussion.
The whole water management process is analyzed, the analysis process refers to fig. 4, and the characterization of each process is carried out by selecting corresponding indexes, and the characterization refers to fig. 5.
And S5, analyzing the causal relationship of the final indexes, and classifying the indexes based on the logic framework to obtain an index system.
Specifically, referring to fig. 6, the final indexes are analyzed in a DPSIR causal chain, and each index falls into the logical framework to form an index system with causal logical relationships.
And S6, finishing the evaluation of the environmental bearing capacity of regional water resources according to the index system.
The evaluation example is based on quantification of multi-dimensional state space bearing capacity and obstacle degree analysis, and a state-space technique (state-space techniques) is an effective method for quantitatively describing the system state by using an Euclidean geometric space, and expresses the state of each element in the system by using a vector through a three-dimensional state space axis. The principle is as follows: and comparing a vector formed by any state point and the origin in the state space with the position of the ideal curved surface to quantify the bearing capacity of a certain area. The state space method can describe not only the overall characteristics of the system, but also the state and performance inside the system. In resource environment bearing capacity evaluation, the three axes of the state space are typically the human activity axis, the resource axis, and the environment axis. And improving the ondansetron on the basis, and constructing an n-dimensional state space by using the selected n index items. The method for constructing the n-dimensional state space is used for reference, a plurality of threshold values are selected for each index on the basis, and 5 early warning intervals are constructed, so that the bearing capacity state of the water resource environment in a certain area can be more carefully and comprehensively described. The method mainly comprises the following steps:
(1) setting a comprehensive characterization matrix of the current situation of the bearing capacity of the regional water resource environment as alpha, alpha lj (1, 2, …, m;. 1,2, …, n) is the current value of the unit to be evaluated, item j;
(2) constructing an early warning evaluation standard matrix beta, beta kj (k 1,2,3, 4; j 1,2, … n), the ith critical threshold for the j-th index;
(3) and carrying out data standardization on the early warning evaluation matrix alpha and the 4-level critical threshold matrix beta. And combining the matrixes alpha and beta to obtain a matrix X, wherein X is a matrix of (m +4) × n. The matrix X is data normalized. The raw data is linearly changed using 0-1 normalization (also called dispersion normalization) to make the result fall in the interval of [0,1 ]. When the index effect is positive, namely the index value is larger and better, the following formula is adopted for conversion:
when the index effect is negative, that is, the index value is smaller and better, the following formula is adopted for conversion:
(4) determining weights w of indexes j (j＝1,2,…,n)，w j Is the weight of the j index. The research adopts an entropy weight method to determine the weight of each index.
Firstly, the characteristic specific gravity p of the ith measured value of the jth index is obtained ij To avoid the occurrence of a "0" value,global right translation 0.00001:
the information entropy (entropy) E of each index is obtained by calculating the characteristic proportion j ：
Information redundancy D j :
D j ＝1-E j
Determining the weight w of each index j ：
Determination of DPSIR each level weight: for an index system with multiple levels, the calculation of index weights of each level can be based on the additivity of entropy. Setting q indexes under the p (p is 1,2,3,4,5, respectively corresponding to DPSIR layers) layer in the criterion layer, and adding the weights of the q indexes in the lower layer to obtain the weight w of the index in the upper layer p 。
For analyzing each subsystem, a certain index X is obtained j Weight w in its subsystem pj ：
(5) Vector S k The kth threshold point, vector WRECC, representing the region l The current point of the water resource environment load in the region is represented, and the evaluation of the load capacity is expressed by the positional relationship of the two points in the n-dimensional space. Calculating the weighted distance S from each threshold vector to the coordinate origin k ：
Similarly, the threshold value of each subsystem is calculated:
(6) calculating n WRECC's by weighting each index lj The modulus of the space vector of the first evaluation unit characterizes the actual bearing state of the research area at a certain time:
similarly, calculating the bearing state value of each subsystem consisting of q indexes:
(7)WRECC l and S k D (P/S/I/R) and S pk And respectively comparing the two to determine the bearing state of each evaluation unit.
Evaluation of the degree of obstacle introduces the concept of degree of deviation of the index, o ij And O P The method respectively represents the influence of the single index and the subsystem index on the bearing capacity level, can diagnose the bearing capacity of the water resource environment, and knows the main reason causing the alarm of the bearing capacity of the water resource environment, and the calculation method is as follows:
v ij ＝1-x lj
the annual average barrier degree value is obtained for each index and subsystem in each area, and the barrier degree condition of the area can be reflected on the whole.
A system for building a bearing capacity evaluation and early warning index system of a water resource environment comprises:
the index library construction module is used for constructing an index library according to documents based on a frequency analysis method;
the screening module is used for screening the indexes in the index library according to a preset rule to obtain candidate indexes;
the fusion module is used for fusing the candidate indexes to obtain fusion information;
the characterization module is used for analyzing the water management process according to the candidate indexes and the fusion information and selecting the indexes for characterization to obtain final indexes;
and the analysis module is used for analyzing the causal relationship of the final indexes and classifying the indexes based on the logic framework to obtain an index system.
Specifically, the method further comprises the following steps:
and the evaluation module is used for finishing the evaluation of the environmental bearing capacity of the regional water resource according to the index system.
The contents in the above method embodiments are all applicable to the present system embodiment, the functions specifically implemented by the present system embodiment are the same as those in the above method embodiment, and the beneficial effects achieved by the present system embodiment are also the same as those achieved by the above method embodiment.
A water resource environment bearing capacity evaluation and early warning index system construction device:
at least one processor;
at least one memory for storing at least one program;
when the at least one program is executed by the at least one processor, the at least one processor is enabled to implement the method for evaluating the bearing capacity of the water resource environment and constructing the early warning index system.
The contents in the above method embodiments are all applicable to the present apparatus embodiment, the functions specifically implemented by the present apparatus embodiment are the same as those in the above method embodiments, and the advantageous effects achieved by the present apparatus embodiment are also the same as those achieved by the above method embodiments.
A storage medium having stored therein instructions executable by a processor, the storage medium comprising: the processor-executable instructions are used for realizing the method for building the bearing capacity evaluation and early warning index system of the water resource environment when being executed by the processor.
The contents in the above method embodiments are all applicable to the present storage medium embodiment, the functions specifically implemented by the present storage medium embodiment are the same as those in the above method embodiments, and the advantageous effects achieved by the present storage medium embodiment are also the same as those achieved by the above method embodiments.
While the preferred embodiments of the present invention have been illustrated and described, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes in form and details may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims.
Claims (9)
1. A method for constructing a bearing capacity evaluation and early warning index system of a water resource environment is characterized by comprising the following steps:
constructing an index library according to documents based on a frequency analysis method;
screening indexes in an index library according to a preset rule to obtain candidate indexes;
fusing the candidate indexes to obtain fusion information;
analyzing the water management process according to the candidate indexes and the fusion information, and selecting the indexes for representing to obtain final indexes;
and analyzing the causal relationship of the final indexes and classifying the indexes based on the logic framework to obtain an index system.
2. The method for building the bearing capacity evaluation and early warning index system of the water resource environment according to claim 1, further comprising:
and finishing the evaluation of the environmental bearing capacity of regional water resources according to the index system.
3. The method for building the index system for evaluating and warning the bearing capacity of the water resource environment according to claim 1, wherein the step of building the index library according to the literature based on the frequency analysis method specifically comprises:
acquiring a water resource environment document and carrying out frequency statistics on indexes in the water resource environment document to obtain a statistical result;
and integrating the indexes with the frequency greater than a preset threshold value based on the statistical result to construct an index library.
4. The method for building a water resource environment bearing capacity evaluation and early warning index system according to claim 3, wherein the preset rules include frequency, importance, comparability, relevance and acquirability.
5. The method for building the water resource environment bearing capacity evaluation and early warning index system according to claim 4, wherein the step of fusing the candidate indexes to obtain fusion information specifically comprises:
reflecting the economic development level according to the production total value of per capita regions and the increase rate of the production total value of regions;
reflecting the population concentration according to population density and the size of the absorbed floating population;
and integrating the economic development level and the population concentration degree to obtain fusion information.
6. The method for building a water resource environment bearing capacity evaluation and early warning index system according to claim 5, wherein the step of analyzing a water management process according to the candidate index and the fusion information and selecting an index for characterization to obtain a final index specifically comprises:
constructing a bearing main body by using water resources, water environment and water ecology;
constructing a bearing object according to the development planning of population, economy and industrial structures of the region;
and analyzing the water management process according to the bearing subject and the bearing object, and selecting the candidate index and the fusion information to obtain a final index.
7. The method for building the bearing capacity evaluation and early warning index system of the water resource environment as claimed in claim 6, wherein the water resource in the bearing main body comprises a water supply link, a water using link and a water retention link, and the water environment in the bearing main body comprises a wastewater generation link, a water drainage link and a water treatment link.
8. The method for building a water resource environment bearing capacity evaluation and early warning index system according to claim 7, wherein the step of analyzing the water management process according to the bearing subject and the bearing object, and selecting the candidate index and the fusion information to obtain the final index specifically comprises:
selecting indexes of the inside and outside water quantities to represent a water supply link;
selecting an index representing water consumption link reflecting the utilization efficiency of water resources;
selecting forest coverage and soil and water conservation indexes to represent a water conservation link;
selecting a waste water discharge rate index to represent a waste water generation link;
selecting indexes reflecting the water quality condition of a water body to represent a drainage link;
selecting a wastewater treatment index to represent a water control link;
selecting ecological construction indexes to represent water ecology in the bearing main body;
and selecting population, economy and industrial structure to represent the bearing object.
9. The method for building the index system for evaluating and warning the bearing capacity of the water resource environment according to claim 8, wherein the step of analyzing the causal relationship of the final index and classifying the index based on the logical framework to obtain the index system specifically comprises:
combing the logical relationship between the index of the bearing subject and the index of the bearing object;
and (4) adapting the final index based on the driving force, the pressure, the state, the influence and the corresponding causal logic chain, and enabling the final index to fall into a logic frame to obtain an index system.
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