CN108416468A - A kind of flood advanced early warning forecasting procedure - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of flood advanced early warning forecasting procedures, similarity of rainstorms comprehensive measurement method based on total amount similar index, process similar index, earth mover range index and distribution of rainfall similar index, similar heavy rain and its corresponding typical flood process are found in history play heavy rain, typical flood process is zoomed in and out further according to storm rainfall ratio, realizes that the advanced early warning of flood is forecast with this.The present invention can constantly update, forecast precision, to obtain longer leading time, can provide decision support in gradually rising for reservoir operation with the increase of storm flood procedural information by the peb process of period forecast.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to hydrographic water resources and data mining crossing domain, are related to a kind of flood advanced early warning forecasting procedure.
Background technology
With the construction of China's water conservancy projects, hydrology basic data also gradually enriches.How to be provided using history storm flood
Material, the similitude for excavating storm flood are always the hot issue of hydrological similarity research.Contain in long-term hydrologic observation data
A large amount of hydrology function information, the similitude between current storm flood and history play storm flood is studied, efficiently uses
In history similar to the development and evolution information of storm flood, realizes the advanced early warning forecast of real-time flood, be the new way of flood forecasting
Diameter.
Storm flood sequence belongs to time series.Currently, having scholar to use for reference Time Series Similarity measurement technology carries out water
Literary process Study on Similarity.Time Series Similarity measure have Euclidean distance, dynamic time warping distance, slope distance,
Symbolism distance, longest common subsequence measurement etc..But most researchers are all from whole field Flood Information, and flood is whole
Relevant information could be obtained after process, and technical support, such as ten thousand Sunyu etc. can not be provided for real-time reservoir operation according to flood
10 flooding schedule indexs such as water lasts, crest discharge, flood peak time of occurrence carry out flood phase using the method for principal component analysis
Like property analysis；Ou Yangrulin etc. carries out research 220 flood discharge processes of website using Dynamic Time Warping Furthest Neighbor similar
Property search.In fact, the formation of storm flood is a process gradually to develop, with the propulsion of peb process, obtained flood
Water information is more, is more conducive to estimate following storm flood development situation, to extend real-time prediction leading time, for flood in real time
Water advanced prediction early warning provides decision references.Currently, compare the method for flood advanced early warning forecast accurately and quickly not yet,
So the development situation of following storm flood can't be estimated according to the information of flood.
Invention content
Goal of the invention：In order to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention provides one kind can be accurately to flood
The flood advanced early warning forecasting procedure that water is estimated.
Invention content：In order to solve the above technical problems, a kind of flood advanced early warning forecasting procedure of the present invention, including following step
Suddenly：
Step 1：The rainfall of N number of precipitation station of acquisition survey region in real time, and areal rainfall is calculated using arithmetic mean method；
Step 2：The data of the current heavy rain data of the collected survey region of step 1 and R history heavy rains are carried out pair
Than：Calculate separately the current heavy rain of survey region and total amount similar index, process similar index, the earth mover of every history heavy rain
Range index and distribution of rainfall similar index；
Step 3：The similitude comprehensive measurement for calculating the current heavy rain data and every history heavy rain data of survey region refers to
Mark, to find out and the highest a certain field history heavy rain of current Heavy Rainfall Process similarity degree；
Step 4：The result obtained according to step 3 finds out a certain field history heavy rain and its corresponding typical flood process, root
Typical flood process is zoomed in and out according to storm rainfall ratio, obtains forecast peb process；Wherein, the corresponding flood mistake of history heavy rain
Journey can be obtained according to the similar heavy rain of the history from hydrological data bank or yearbook.
Wherein, in the step 2 the current heavy rain of survey region to every history heavy rain the similar finger of the total amount within the preceding T periods
Target computational methods are：According to formulaCalculate the total of current heavy rain and every history heavy rain
Measure similar index quantity (X, Y), wherein X indicates current Heavy Rainfall Process, and Y indicates history Heavy Rainfall Process, when T indicates comparison
Long, t indicates moment, XtIndicate current heavy rain t moment areal rainfall；YtAreal rainfall of the expression history heavy rain in t moment.
The calculating side of current heavy rain and process similar index of the every history heavy rain within the preceding T periods in the step 2
Method is：According to process (t)=(Xt-Xt+1)/(Yt-Yt+1) andKnow current heavy rain and goes through
The process similar index of history heavy rainWherein process (t) indicates that two rainfalls change over time the consistency of trend,
It is inconsistent that process (t)≤0 indicates that two rainfalls change over time trend, and process (t) ＞ 0 indicate two rainfalls at any time
Variation tendency is consistent；H (t) indicates the similarity in t moment current heavy rain and history heavy rain.
The current heavy rain of survey region refers to earth mover distance of the every history heavy rain within the preceding T periods in the step 2
Target computational methods are：According to formulaCalculate the mound of current heavy rain and every history heavy rain
Machine range index EMD (X, Y), wherein dijIndicate between the current heavy rain X at the i-th moment and the history heavy rain Y at jth moment away from
From dij=abs (i-j), i.e., distance is close if mobile storm rainfall in the same time, if traveling time gap bigger storm rainfall away from
From remoter, such as the storm rainfall transfer part at the 1st moment of current heavy rain being arrived to the 2nd moment of history heavy rain, distance is 1, if
It is transferred to the 2nd moment of history heavy rain, distance is 2.Wherein fijIt indicates the current heavy rain X at the i-th moment shifting a part of heavy rain
Measure the cost (freight charges) spent by the history heavy rain Y at jth moment, fij=abs (Xi-Yj), i.e. fijIt is current sudden and violent for the i-th moment
Storm rainfall gap between rain X and the history heavy rain Y at jth moment.
The calculating side of the current heavy rain of survey region and the distribution of rainfall similar index of every history heavy rain in the step 2
Method is：According to formulaCalculate the distribution of rainfall similar index of current heavy rain and history heavy rain
Euclidean, whereinIndicate that k-th of precipitation station is in the rainfall of t moment in current heavy rain；It indicates the in history heavy rain
Rainfall of the k precipitation station in t moment.
Similarity of rainstorms comprehensive measurement is calculated in the step 3 to refer to calibration method and be：Using deviation standardized method, will count
Obtained original index is respectively mapped to [0,1] section：Wherein, original index includes the research area being calculated in step 2
The current heavy rain in domain and the total amount similar index of history heavy rain, process similar index, earth mover range index and distribution of rainfall phase
Like four kinds of index；R history heavy rains are shared, then r (r=1,2 ..., R) field history heavy rain is standardized with current heavy rain X deviations
Similar index value afterwards is：
Wherein, xs(r) it is the s kind original index values of r history heavy rains and current heavy rain X,For r history
The s kind original index of heavy rain and current heavy rain X be standardized after index value, xsmax(r) it is r history heavy rains and work as
Maximum value in the s kind original index values of preceding heavy rain X, xsmin(r) it is the s kinds of r history field heavy rains and current heavy rain X
Minimum value in original index value；Further according to formulaSimilarity of rainstorms comprehensive measurement index W；Wherein,For s-th of standardized index value；M is evaluation index number, as the type number of original index.
Typical flood process is zoomed in and out according to storm rainfall ratio in the step 4, obtains the side of forecast peb process
Method is：According to formulaIt calculates and obtains forecast peb process Q (t), PCurrent heavy rainFor the heavy rain of current heavy rain
Amount, PSimilar heavy rainFor the storm rainfall of similar history heavy rain, QIt is similar(t) it is the peb process corresponding to similar history heavy rain.
Operation principle：The present invention is proposed based on total amount similar index, process similar index, earth mover distance (Earth
Mover ' s Distance, EMD) index and distribution of rainfall similar index similarity of rainstorms comprehensive measurement method, in history field
Similar heavy rain and its corresponding typical flood process are found in secondary heavy rain, and typical flood process is carried out further according to storm rainfall ratio
Scaling realizes that the advanced early warning of flood is forecast with this.
Advantageous effect：Compared with prior art, the present invention do not need etc. whole field storm flood process terminate to carry out it is similar
Property search constantly updated by the peb process of period forecast, forecast precision is in but with the increase of storm flood procedural information
It gradually rises, to obtain longer leading time, decision support can be provided for reservoir operation.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the method provided by the present invention；
Fig. 2 is No. 19960810 and No. 20040811 play rainfall comparison diagrams in embodiment；
Fig. 3 is 20040811 play of embodiment forecast peb process figure；Wherein, former 5 hourly precipitations are research object；
Fig. 4 is No. 19840704 and No. 20040811 play rainfall figure comparison diagrams in embodiment；
Fig. 5 is 20040811 play of embodiment forecast peb process figure, wherein former 10 hourly precipitations are research pair
As.
Specific implementation mode
Technical scheme of the present invention is further explained below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
As shown in Figure 1, the present invention provides a kind of flood advanced early warning forecasting procedure, include the following steps：
Step 1：The rainfall of the acquisition N number of precipitation station of survey region in real time, and areal rainfall is calculated using arithmetic mean method；Face
Rainfall can be by being averaging each website rainfall or weighted average obtains.
Step 2：The data of the current heavy rain data of the collected survey region of step 1 and R history heavy rains are carried out pair
Than：Calculate separately the current heavy rain of survey region and total amount similar index, process similar index, the earth mover of every history heavy rain
Range index and distribution of rainfall similar index；
Step 21：According to formulaCalculate the total of current heavy rain and every history heavy rain
Measure similar index quantity (X, Y), wherein X indicates current Heavy Rainfall Process, and Y indicates history Heavy Rainfall Process, when T indicates comparison
Long, t indicates moment, XtIndicate current heavy rain t moment areal rainfall；YtAreal rainfall of the expression history heavy rain in t moment.This refers to
Mark the similarity degree that two rainfalls are described from the angle of accumulation rainfall.If quantity (X, Y) value is smaller, two rainfalls are indicated
It is close to accumulate rainfall, i.e., it is more similar；If quantity (X, Y) value is bigger, indicate that two rainfall accumulation difference in rainfall are bigger,
From the point of view of total amount similar index, similarity degree is lower.
Step 22：According to process (t)=(Xt-Xt+1)/(Yt-Yt+1) andKnow and works as
The process similar index of preceding heavy rain and history heavy rainWherein process (t) indicates that two rainfalls change over time trend
Consistency, it is inconsistent that process (t)≤0 indicates that two rainfalls change over time trend, and process (t) ＞ 0 indicate two
It is consistent that rainfall changes over time trend；H (t) indicates the similarity in t moment current heavy rain and history heavy rain.If two rainfalls exist
The variation tendency of t moment is consistent, that is, raises simultaneously or reduce simultaneously, then process (t) ＞ 0, and remembers that H (t) is 1；Otherwise note
It is 0.Current heavy rain and the similarity of the rainfall of history heavy rain can use accumulation unit jump functionIt describes, value is bigger
Indicate that two rainfalls are consistent with time-histories trend, vice versa.
Step 23：According to formulaCalculate the mound of current heavy rain and every history heavy rain
Machine range index EMD (X, Y), wherein dijIndicate between the current heavy rain X at the i-th moment and the history heavy rain Y at jth moment away from
From dij=abs (i-j), i.e., distance is close if mobile storm rainfall in the same time, if traveling time gap bigger storm rainfall away from
From remoter, such as the storm rainfall transfer part at the 1st moment of current heavy rain being arrived to the 2nd moment of history heavy rain, distance is 1, if
It is transferred to the 2nd moment of history heavy rain, distance is 2.Wherein fijIt indicates the current heavy rain X at the i-th moment shifting a part of heavy rain
Measure the cost (freight charges) spent by the history heavy rain Y at jth moment, fij=abs (Xi-Yj), i.e. fijIt is current sudden and violent for the i-th moment
Storm rainfall gap between rain X and the history heavy rain Y at jth moment.
Step 24：According to formulaCalculate heavy rain point of the current heavy rain with history heavy rain
Cloth similar index Euclidean, whereinIndicate that k-th of precipitation station is in the rainfall of t moment in current heavy rain；Expression is gone through
Rainfall of k-th of precipitation station in t moment in history heavy rain.The index can portray heavy rain spatial distribution differences to a certain extent,
When Euclidean is smaller, two spatially distributed rainfall differences of expression are smaller, and similarity degree is higher；Euclidean is bigger, then table
Show that two spatially distributed rainfalls differ greatly, similarity degree is lower.
Step 3：Similarity of rainstorms comprehensive measurement index is calculated, is found out accordingly highest with current Heavy Rainfall Process similarity degree
History heavy rain play.Using deviation standardized method, the original index being calculated is respectively mapped to [0,1] section：Wherein,
Original index includes total amount similar index of the current heavy rain with history heavy rain for the survey region being calculated in step 2, process
Four kinds of similar index, earth mover range index and distribution of rainfall similar index；Share R history heavy rains, then r (r=1,
2 ..., R) the similar index value after field history heavy rain and current heavy rain X deviations standardize is：
Wherein, xs(r) it is the s kind original index values of r history heavy rains and current heavy rain X,For r history
The s kind original index of heavy rain and current heavy rain X be standardized after index value, xsmax(r) it is r history heavy rains and work as
Maximum value in the s kind original index values of preceding heavy rain X, xsmin(r) it is the s kinds of r history field heavy rains and current heavy rain X
Minimum value in original index value；Further according to formulaSimilarity of rainstorms comprehensive measurement index W；Wherein,For s-th of standardized index value；M is evaluation index number, as the type number of original index.
Step 4：The result obtained according to step 3 finds out similar history heavy rain and its corresponding typical flood process, root
Typical flood process is zoomed in and out according to storm rainfall ratio, obtains forecast peb process.In general, certain Heavy Rainfall Process has
Corresponding peb process is documented in hydrological data bank or Water Year Book.
Typical flood process is zoomed in and out according to storm rainfall ratio, obtains forecast peb process：
Wherein, Q (t) is forecast peb process, PSimilar heavy rainFor the storm rainfall of similar history heavy rain, QIt is similar(t) it is similar
Peb process corresponding to history heavy rain.
Embodiment：The totally 85 history storm flood process datas of existing a certain hydrological observation website 1981~2007 years.According to
According to method provided by the invention, forecast that process is as follows using No. 20040811 storm floods as real-time storm flood：
(1) using the rainfall of 5 periods before the station 20040811 as research object, with each play flood phase in history
Compare, find flood similar to its, similarity of rainstorms comprehensive measurement index each similarity indices value in the top is shown in Table 1.Most
Searching out 19960810 and 20040811 rainfall in first five period eventually has the similitude of higher degree, rainfall
As shown in Fig. 2, observed flood and forecast peb process are as shown in Figure 3.
1 No. 20040811 similarity of rainstorms index analysis results of table (preceding 5 periods)
(2) using the rainfall of 10 periods before the play of the station 20040811 as research object, with each play in history
Flood compares, and finds flood similar to its, and similarity of rainstorms comprehensive measurement index each similarity indices value in the top is shown in
Table 2.It is final search out 19840704 and 20040811 first five period rainfall with similitude to a certain extent,
Rainfall is as shown in figure 4, observed flood and forecast peb process are as shown in Figure 5.
2 No. 20040811 similarity of rainstorms index analysis results of table (preceding 10 periods)
When merely entering preceding 5 hourly precipitations, No. 20040811 rainfalls are dropped in history rainfall play with No. 19960810
The matched similarity degree of rain is higher, but forecasts that flood peak value is higher；When inputting preceding 10 hourly precipitations, No. 20040811 rainfalls exist
It is higher with No. 19840704 matched similarity degrees of rainfall in history rainfall play, but forecast that flood peak value connects with actual measurement flood peak value
Closely.From the point of view of the forecast result of aforementioned 5,10 periods, with the increase of storm flood procedural information, by the flood of period forecast
Process is constantly updated, and forecast precision is in gradually rise trend.It can be seen that the present invention can be accurately advanced to flood progress pre-
Report and early warning, application effect are more preferable.
The above is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, it should be pointed out that：For the ordinary skill people of the art
For member, various improvements and modifications may be made without departing from the principle of the present invention, these improvements and modifications are also answered
It is considered as protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. a kind of flood advanced early warning forecasting procedure, it is characterised in that：Include the following steps：
Step 1：The rainfall of N number of precipitation station of acquisition survey region in real time, and areal rainfall is calculated using arithmetic mean method；
Step 2：The current heavy rain data of the collected survey region of step 1 and the data of R history heavy rains are compared：Point
It Ji Suan not the total amount similar index of current heavy rain and every history heavy rain of survey region, process similar index, earth mover distance
Index and distribution of rainfall similar index；
Step 3：The similitude comprehensive measurement index for calculating the current heavy rain data and every history heavy rain data of survey region, from
And it finds out and the highest a certain field history heavy rain of current Heavy Rainfall Process similarity degree；
Step 4：The result obtained according to step 3 finds out similar heavy rain and its corresponding typical flood process, according to storm rainfall ratio
Value zooms in and out typical flood process, obtains forecast peb process.
2. flood advanced early warning forecasting procedure according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：Survey region in the step 2
Current heavy rain the computational methods of total amount similar index within the preceding T periods are with every history heavy rain：According to formulaCalculate current heavy rain and every history heavy rain total amount similar index quantity (X,
Y), wherein X indicates that current Heavy Rainfall Process, Y indicate that history Heavy Rainfall Process, T indicate that comparison duration, t indicate moment, XtExpression is worked as
Areal rainfall of the preceding heavy rain in t moment；YtAreal rainfall of the expression history heavy rain in t moment.
3. flood advanced early warning forecasting procedure according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：It is current sudden and violent in the step 2
The computational methods of rain and the process similar index of history heavy rain are：According to process (t)=(Xt-Xt+1)/(Yt-Yt+1) andKnow the process similar index of current heavy rain and history heavy rainWherein process
(t) indicate that two rainfalls change over time the consistency of trend, process (t)≤0 indicates that two rainfalls change over time trend
Inconsistent, it is consistent that process (t) ＞ 0 indicate that two rainfalls change over time trend；H (t) indicate the current heavy rain of t moment with
The similarity of history heavy rain.
4. flood advanced early warning forecasting procedure according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：It is current sudden and violent in the step 2
Rain and the computational methods of the earth mover range index of history heavy rain are：According to formulaCalculating is worked as
The earth mover range index EMD (X, Y) of preceding heavy rain and every history heavy rain, wherein dijIndicate the current heavy rain X at the i-th moment with
The distance between the history heavy rain Y at jth moment, dij=abs (i-j)；fijIt indicates the current heavy rain X at the i-th moment shifting one
Divide the cost spent by history heavy rain Y of the storm rainfall to the jth moment, fij=abs (Xi-Yj)。
5. flood advanced early warning forecasting procedure according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：It is current sudden and violent in the step 2
The computational methods of rain and the distribution of rainfall similar index of history heavy rain are：According to formulaMeter
Calculate the distribution of rainfall similar index Euclidean of current heavy rain and history heavy rain, whereinIndicate k-th of rain in current heavy rain
Rainfall of the amount station in t moment；Indicate that k-th of precipitation station is in the rainfall of t moment in history heavy rain.
6. flood advanced early warning forecasting procedure according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：Heavy rain is calculated in the step 3
Similitude comprehensive measurement refers to calibration method：Using deviation standardized method, the original index being calculated is respectively mapped to
[0,1] section：Wherein, original index includes the total of current heavy rain and the history heavy rain for the survey region being calculated in step 2
Measure four kinds of similar index, process similar index, earth mover range index and distribution of rainfall similar index；According to formula
Calculate obtain r history heavy rains and current heavy rain X s kind original index be standardized after index value
Wherein, xs(r) it is the s kind original index values of r history heavy rains and current heavy rain X, xsmax(r) be r history heavy rains and
Maximum value in the s kind original index values of current heavy rain X, xsmin(r) it is the s of r history field heavy rains and current heavy rain X
Minimum value in kind original index value；Further according to formulaSimilarity of rainstorms comprehensive measurement index W；Wherein,For s-th of standardized index value；M is evaluation index number, as the type number of original index.
7. flood advanced early warning forecasting procedure according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：According to heavy rain in the step 4
Amount ratio zooms in and out typical flood process, and the method for obtaining forecast peb process is：According to formulaIt calculates and obtains forecast peb process Q (t)；PCurrent heavy rainFor the storm rainfall of current heavy rain, PSimilar heavy rainFor phase
As history heavy rain storm rainfall, QIt is similar(t) it is the corresponding typical flood process of similar heavy rain.
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| CN109886818A (en) * | 2019-01-14 | 2019-06-14 | 成都数保科技有限公司 | A kind of accurate analysis system of medical insurance business datum based on big data |
| CN111027763A (en) * | 2019-12-06 | 2020-04-17 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Basin flood response similarity analysis method based on machine learning |
| CN111027763B (en) * | 2019-12-06 | 2020-07-31 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Basin flood response similarity analysis method based on machine learning |
| CN111639810A (en) * | 2020-06-01 | 2020-09-08 | 宁波市水利水电规划设计研究院有限公司 | Rainfall forecast precision evaluation method based on flood prevention demand |
| CN111639810B (en) * | 2020-06-01 | 2023-05-09 | 宁波市水利水电规划设计研究院有限公司 | Rainfall forecast precision assessment method based on flood prevention requirements |
| CN111898831B (en) * | 2020-08-06 | 2022-11-08 | 长江水利委员会水文局 | Real-time flood probability forecasting practical method |
| CN111898831A (en) * | 2020-08-06 | 2020-11-06 | 长江水利委员会水文局 | Real-time flood probability forecasting practical method |
| CN111932023A (en) * | 2020-08-21 | 2020-11-13 | 四川大学 | Small-watershed short-term flood forecasting method based on typical design flood process line |
| CN111932023B (en) * | 2020-08-21 | 2023-04-07 | 四川大学 | Small-watershed short-term flood forecasting method based on typical design flood process line |
| CN113204865A (en) * | 2021-04-15 | 2021-08-03 | 武汉大学 | Urban design rainstorm type calculation method and system based on intrinsic orthogonal decomposition |
| CN113204865B (en) * | 2021-04-15 | 2022-10-11 | 武汉大学 | Urban design rainstorm type calculation method and system based on intrinsic orthogonal decomposition |
| CN115188163A (en) * | 2022-07-08 | 2022-10-14 | 黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司 | Flood early warning method and system based on rainstorm and flood similarity |
| CN115188163B (en) * | 2022-07-08 | 2023-08-29 | 黄河勘测规划设计研究院有限公司 | Flood early warning method and system based on storm and flood similarity |
| CN117313911A (en) * | 2023-05-30 | 2023-12-29 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Flood forecasting method based on rainfall characteristic recognition |
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