CN111932023A - Small-watershed short-term flood forecasting method based on typical design flood process line - Google Patents

Small-watershed short-term flood forecasting method based on typical design flood process line Download PDF

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CN111932023A
CN111932023A CN202010846328.0A CN202010846328A CN111932023A CN 111932023 A CN111932023 A CN 111932023A CN 202010846328 A CN202010846328 A CN 202010846328A CN 111932023 A CN111932023 A CN 111932023A
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周宏伟
袁野
蔡君怡
梁煜峰
潘龙阳
周家文
杨兴国
费文平
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Sichuan University
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Abstract

The invention discloses a small watershed short-term flood forecasting method based on a typical design flood process line, which comprises the following steps of: s1, acquiring design flood peak flow and a typical design flood process line of small watershed riverways in different years; s2, judging whether the river channel starts to carry out short-term flood forecasting or not according to the actually measured flow; s3, determining the forecasting time of short-term flood forecasting according to the actually measured flood flow of the river channel; s4, determining slope K according to typical design flood process line of corresponding agen(ii) a S5, according to tnActual measurement flood flow q at a momentnAnd slope KnDetermining tn+1Moment predicted flood flow q'n+1(ii) a S6, according to tn+1Judging whether the short-term flood forecast can be ended or not according to the actual flood flow at the moment; s7, according to tn+1Actual measurement flood flow q at a momentn+1And tn+1Predicted flood flow q 'of time'n+1For calculating the slope KnDesign flood process line ofnCorrecting; and S8, ending the short-term flood forecast. The inventionCompared with the existing flow algorithm and the corresponding water level method, the method has the advantages of simplicity, rapidness and the like.

Description

Small-watershed short-term flood forecasting method based on typical design flood process line
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of flood forecasting, in particular to a small-watershed short-term flood forecasting method based on a typical design flood process line.
Background
The small watershed is usually a small river and a small stream with a water collecting area not more than hundreds of square kilometers, but the small river and the small stream are not limited specifically, and the watershed area is generally considered to be 300-500 km2The following may be considered as a small watershed. From the hydrologic perspective, the small watershed has the characteristics of watershed convergence mainly based on slope convergence, hydrologic data lack, small water collection area and the like.
The small watershed design flood calculation is widely applied to medium and small hydraulic engineering, for example, small reservoirs and flood skimming ditches for constructing farmland hydraulic engineering, cross buildings such as culverts and flood discharge gates on channel systems, and small bridges and culverts on railways and highways, compared with large and medium watersheds, the small watershed design flood has the following four characteristics:
(1) most of small watersheds do not have hydrological stations, namely lack of measured runoff data, and even rainfall data. Therefore, the flood calculation of the small watershed design is generally calculation under the condition of no material.
(2) The small watershed area is small, the natural geographic conditions tend to be single, and proper simplification, namely certain generalized assumptions are allowed to be made when a calculation method is formulated. For example, assume that the short duration design storms are evenly distributed in space.
(3) The small flow field is wide in distribution and large in quantity. Therefore, the proposed calculation method is simple and convenient on the premise of keeping a certain precision, and can be completed by a hydrological manual generally.
(4) The small-scale engineering generally has smaller regulation capacity on flood, and the engineering scale is mainly controlled by the flood peak flow, so the requirement on the design of the flood peak flow is higher than the requirement on a flood process line.
A method for calculating a typical design flood process line in a small watershed includes calculating a design flood peak flow of the small watershed by an inference formula method or a regional experience formula method, and calculating the typical design flood process line of the small watershed according to a comprehensive instantaneous unit line method or a polygonal process line method (triangle, five-point shape, multi-peak shape and the like) in combination with the design flood peak flow of the small watershed.
Because of numerous small watersheds in China, flood disasters on the small watersheds are high in frequency and wide in damage range, and the influence on national economy is serious. Just because the disaster loss caused by the flood in the small watershed is so huge, the reduction of the short-term flood forecast in the small watershed and even the avoidance of the disaster loss of the flood are particularly important, and the reasonable forecast result has great significance for the benefit and flood control.
At present, the river flood forecasting method is usually a flow algorithm and a corresponding water level method. The flow algorithm is essentially a cause analysis method and is mainly divided into two methods, namely a hydrological method and a hydraulic method. Wherein, the hydrology method is a Masjing root method and a characteristic river growth method; the hydraulics method adopts an analytic method and a numerical method. The essence of the corresponding water level method is mathematical statistics, which is a method for forecasting the flood in the river reach according to the relationship (statistical law) between the corresponding water levels (or the corresponding flow rates), and mainly includes a flood peak water level forecasting method.
The hydrological method in the flow algorithm has stronger empirical type parameters, and the problem that the parameters are difficult to be accurately calibrated can be met in a basin with complex water flow conditions; the hydraulics method has the defects of more required data of different types, long calculation time and the like. The corresponding water level rule needs a large amount of mathematical statistics on flood waves, has high data precision requirement and time-consuming statistical calculation, and mainly forecasts the water level at a flood peak.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects of the prior art and provides a small-watershed short-term flood forecasting method based on a typical design flood process line.
The purpose of the invention is realized by the following technical scheme: a small watershed short-term flood forecasting method based on a typical design flood process line is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
s1, acquiring design flood peak flow and a typical design flood process line of different ages of a small watershed river channel:
in small river domains, different ages T of river channels are determined1＜T2＜T3＜……＜TN-1＜TNDesigned peak flow Q1＜Q2＜Q3＜……＜QN-1＜QN(ii) a Wherein the nth year TnCorresponding design peak flow of Qn，n＝1,2,3,…,N；
Then, according to an integrated instantaneous unit line method or a polygonal process line method (triangle, five-point shape, multi-peak shape and the like), calculating and determining typical design flood process lines of the river channel in different years by combining the design flood peak flow of the river channel in different years;
s2, judging whether the river channel starts to carry out short-term flood forecasting or not according to the actually measured flow:
obtaining the actually measured flow q of the river channel, and when the actually measured flow q is not lower than a certain age TnDesigned peak flow QnWhen the condition Q is satisfied, Q is equal to or more than QnJudging that the river channel starts short-term flood forecasting, and entering step S3, wherein the actual measurement flow q is the actual measurement flood flow; when the measured flow q is lower than a certain age TnDesigned peak flow QnWhen the condition Q < Q is satisfiednRepeatedly executing the step S2 until the river channel starts short-term flood forecasting;
s3, determining the forecasting time of the short-term flood forecasting according to the actually measured flood flow of the river channel:
the design flood peak flow of each year corresponds to a flood forecast time interval when the actual flood flow Q and the design flood peak flow Q are measuredn、Qn+1Satisfies the relationship: qn≤q＜Qn+1N is 1,2,3, …, N-1, and the forecast time interval of flood at that time is determined to be QnCorresponding Δ tn(ii) a According to the measured time tnAnd forecast time interval Δ tnIn combination with the formula tn+1＝tn+ΔtnDetermining the next forecast time tn+1；
S4, determining slope K according to typical design flood process line of corresponding agen：
At TnDetermining t on the design flood process line of the age limitnInstantaneous flood flow
Figure BDA0002643165250000021
tn+1Instantaneous flood flow
Figure BDA0002643165250000022
According to the slope calculation formula
Figure BDA0002643165250000023
Performing a calculation when tnMeasured flow at time tn-1Momentarily measured flow rate decrease, i.e. qn-1＞qnThen K isn-K; when t isnMeasured flow at time tn-1Increase of the measured flow at any moment, qn-1＜qnThen Kn＝K；
S5, according to tnActual measurement flood flow q at a momentnAnd slope KnDetermining tn+1Moment predicted flood flow q'n+1：
According to a linear equation formula q'n+1＝qn+Kn(tn+1-tn) Or q'n+1＝qn+KnΔtnDetermining tn+1Moment predicted flood flow q'n+1This predicted value q'n+1Is a publication of t to societyn+1Time of dayThe predicted flood flow value;
s6, according to tn+1And (3) judging whether the short-term flood forecast can be ended or not according to the actual flood flow at the moment:
when flood flow q is actually measuredn+1Below a certain age TnDesigned peak flow QnWhen the condition q is satisfiedn+1＜QnJudging that the river channel finishes short-term flood forecasting, and entering step S8; when flood flow q is actually measuredn+1Not less than a certain age TnDesigned peak flow QnWhen the condition q is satisfiedn+1≥QnProceeding to step S7;
s7, according to tn+1Actual measurement flood flow q at a momentn+1And tn+1Predicted flood flow q 'of time'n+1For calculating the slope KnDesign flood process line ofnCorrecting;
according to the relation of the ratio
Figure BDA0002643165250000031
Calculating and determining a ratio A of the predicted flood flow to the actually measured flood flow;
if A is more than or equal to 90% and less than or equal to 110%, and the predicted flood flow is in a reasonable range of the actually-measured flood flow, the predicted flood flow meets the precision requirement, which indicates that the river flood at the moment meets TnDesign flood of age, then TnThe age does not need to be corrected, and the process returns to step S3;
if A is more than 110%, the predicted flood flow is higher than the upper limit of the reasonable range of the actually measured flood flow, and the predicted flood flow does not meet the precision requirement; if the actual flood flow rate is increased from the previous time, it indicates that the low-age limit T should be satisfiedn-1Design flood of (1), thennThe age needs to be corrected to Tn-1Wherein T isn-1＜TnAnd returns to step S3; if the actual flood flow rate is reduced from the previous time, it indicates that the high age limit T should be satisfiedn+1Design flood of (1), thennThe age needs to be corrected to Tn+1Wherein T isn+1＞TnReturning to step S3;
if A is less than 90Percent, predicting the flood flow to be lower than the lower limit of the actual measurement flood flow reasonable range, wherein the predicted flood flow does not meet the precision requirement; if the actual flood flow rate is increased from the previous time, it indicates that the high age limit T should be satisfiedn+1Design flood of (1), thennThe age needs to be corrected to Tn+1Wherein T isn+1＞TnReturning to step S3; if the actual flood flow rate is reduced from the previous time, it indicates that the low-age limit T should be satisfiedn-1Design flood of (1), thennThe age needs to be corrected to Tn-1Wherein T isn-1＜TnReturning to the step 3;
and S8, ending the short-term flood forecast.
Further, the corresponding age T of the design flood peak flow as the determination condition in step S2nThe method is selected and determined in advance according to the river channel characteristics and the importance of protected objects.
Further, designing the peak flow QnThe larger, or TnThe greater the age, the greater the time interval Δ t of flood forecastingnThe smaller (Δ t)1＞Δt2＞Δt3＞……＞Δtn-1＞Δtn)。
Further, t in step S4nThe actual measurement flood flow rate corresponding to the moment is qnAt TnT determined on the year design flood process linenAt the moment the flood flow is
Figure BDA0002643165250000041
tn+1The actual measurement flood flow rate corresponding to the moment is qn+1At TnT determined on the year design flood process linen+1At the moment the flood flow is
Figure BDA0002643165250000042
Further, it is determined for the first time in step S4 to calculate the slope K of the predicted flood flownYear of (T)nThe age T of the short-term flood forecast may be determined according to step S2nAnd (4) determining.
Further, t in step S5nMeasured flow q corresponding to momentnThe parameters can be obtained from related departments in advance and are known parameters in the application; in step S6, the river tn+1Actual measurement flood flow q at a momentn+1The parameters may be obtained in advance from the relevant department, which are known in the present application.
Further, the year T of the design flood peak flow rate as the determination condition in step S6nThe river channel feature and the importance of the protected object are selected and determined in advance.
Further, the age T of the flood process line is designed in step S7nGenerally by adjacent years Tn-1Or Tn+1Correcting, if the calculated error of the predicted flood flow is too large (exceeding the set error range), considering TnBy Tn-2、Tn+2Or other age.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: the small watershed short-term flood forecasting method based on the typical design flood process line provided by the invention obtains the design flood peak flow and the typical design flood process line for a certain river channel of the small watershed through a hydrological method, determines whether to start and end the flood forecasting and forecasting time through actually measuring the flow, determines the forecast flood flow according to the typical design flood line, and finally corrects the age of the typical design flood process line to obtain the forecasting result of the flood of the whole watershed. Compared with the existing flow algorithm and the corresponding water level method, the method has the characteristics of simplicity, rapidness and the like.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention.
Fig. 2 shows the flood process lines for different years of a river in the example.
Fig. 3 is a comparison graph of the predicted flood flow and the actually measured flood flow of a certain river channel and a certain flood in a small watershed in the embodiment, wherein (a) and (b) respectively correspond to two schemes for flood forecasting, and forecasting time intervals of the schemes are different.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions of the present invention are further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings, but the scope of the present invention is not limited to the following.
As shown in fig. 1, a small watershed short-term flood forecasting method based on a typical designed flood process line performs two-site flood forecasting on a certain river reach in a small watershed, and mainly includes the following steps:
s1, acquiring design flood peak flow and a typical design flood process line of different ages of a small watershed river channel:
for the river channel, the design flood peak flow (Q) of the river channel in 6 years (2, 5, 10, 20, 30 and 50 years) is calculated by an inference formula method or a regional experience formula method1＜Q2＜Q3＜……＜Q6) And then, according to an integrated instantaneous unit line method or a polygonal process line method (triangle, five-point shape, multi-peak shape and the like), combining the design flood peak flow of the river channel for 6 years, and calculating and determining a corresponding typical design flood process line of the river channel. Fig. 2 shows the flood course lines of 6 typical designs of the river.
S2, judging whether the river channel can carry out short-term flood forecasting according to the actually measured flow:
obtaining the actual measurement flow q of the river channel to related departments, and when the actual measurement flow q is not less than 238m of the design flood peak flow which is met all the time in 2 years3When is/s, the condition q is satisfied to be more than or equal to 238m3Step S3, judging that the river starts short-term flood forecasting, wherein the actual measurement flow q is the actual measurement flood flow; when the measured flow q is lower than the design peak flow 238m of 2 years3When is/s, the condition q < 238m is satisfied3And S, repeating the step S2 until the river channel can be subjected to short-term flood forecasting.
S3, determining the forecasting time of the short-term flood forecasting according to the actually measured flood flow of the river channel:
the design flood peak flow of each year corresponds to a flood forecast time interval when the actual flood flow Q and the design flood peak flow Q are measuredn、Qn+1Satisfies the relationship: qn≤q＜Qn+1The forecast time interval of flood at that time can be determined as Δ tn. According to the measured time tnAnd forecast time interval Δ tnIn combination with the formula tn+1＝tn+ΔtnDetermining the next forecast time tn+1。
Table 1 shows two schemes of forecast time intervals corresponding to the design peak flows of different ages.
Figure BDA0002643165250000051
S4, determining slope K according to typical design flood process line of corresponding agen：
At TnThe year-round design flood process can be determined on-linenInstantaneous flood flow
Figure BDA0002643165250000052
tn+1Instantaneous flood flow
Figure BDA0002643165250000053
According to the slope calculation formula
Figure BDA0002643165250000054
Performing a calculation when tnMeasured flow at time tn-1Momentarily measured flow rate decrease, i.e. qn-1＞qnThen K isn-K; when t isnMeasured flow at time tn-1Increase of the measured flow at any moment, qn-1＜qnThen KnK. Calculating an initial slope KnThe year limit of the design flood process line of (2) is taken as 2 years.
S5, according to tnActual measurement flood flow q at a momentnAnd slope KnDetermining tn+1Moment predicted flood flow q'n+1：
According to a linear equation formula q'n+1＝qn+Kn(tn+1-tn) Or q'n+1＝qn+KnΔtnDetermining tn+1Moment predicted flood flow q'n+1This predicted value q'n+1Is a publication of t to societyn+1Predicted flood flow values at time.
S6, according to tn+1Actual measurement flood flow determination at a timeWhether short-term flood forecasting can be ended:
when flood flow q is actually measuredn+1Design peak flow rate of 238m lower than 2 years3When is/s, the condition q is satisfiedn+1＜238m3(S), it can be determined that the river can end the short-term flood forecast, and step S8 is performed; when flood flow q is actually measuredn+1Design peak flow rate of 238m not less than 2 years3When is/s, the condition q is satisfiedn+1≥238m3and/S, go to step S7.
S7, according to tn+1Actual measurement flood flow q at a momentn+1And tn+1Predicted flood flow q 'of time'n+1For calculating the slope KnDesign flood process line ofnAnd (6) correcting.
According to the relation of the ratio
Figure BDA0002643165250000061
And calculating and determining the ratio A of the predicted flood flow and the actually measured flood flow.
If A is more than or equal to 90% and less than or equal to 110%, and the predicted flood flow is in a reasonable range of the actually-measured flood flow, the predicted flood flow meets the precision requirement, which indicates that the river flood at the moment meets TnDesign flood of age, then TnThe age does not need to be corrected, and the process returns to step S3;
if A is larger than 110%, the predicted flood flow is higher than the upper limit of the reasonable range of the actually measured flood flow, and the predicted flood flow does not meet the precision requirement. If the actual flood flow rate is increased from the previous time, it indicates that the low-age limit T should be satisfiedn-1Design flood of (1), thennThe age needs to be corrected to Tn-1(Tn-1＜Tn) Returning to step S3; if the actual flood flow rate is reduced from the previous time, it indicates that the high age limit T should be satisfiedn+1Design flood of (1), thennThe age needs to be corrected to Tn+1(Tn+1＞Tn) Returning to step S3;
if A is less than 90%, the predicted flood flow is lower than the lower limit of the actual flood flow reasonable range, and the predicted flood flow does not meet the precision requirement. If the actual flood is presentThe flow rate is increased from the previous moment, which shows that the high age limit T should be satisfied at the momentn+1Design flood of (1), thennThe age needs to be corrected to Tn+1(Tn+1＞Tn) Returning to step S3; if the actual flood flow rate is reduced from the previous time, it indicates that the low-age limit T should be satisfiedn-1Design flood of (1), thennThe age needs to be corrected to Tn-1(Tn-1＜Tn) Returning to step S3;
and S8, ending the short-term flood forecast.
As shown in fig. 3, in the embodiment of the present application, fig. 3(a) is a diagram of a predicted flood process of scenario one, in which the forecast time intervals of the corresponding design years 2, 5, 10, 20, 30, 50 years are 60, 50, 40, 30, 20, 10 minutes respectively; fig. 3(b) is a diagram of a predicted flood process of a second solution, in the second solution, the time intervals of forecast of the corresponding design years 2, 5, 10, 20, 30 and 50 are respectively 30, 25, 20, 15, 10 and 5 minutes, the designed flood peak flow rates of the two solutions are equal, and the forecast time interval of the second solution is smaller than that of the first solution. The results show that: the ratio of the predicted flood volume to the actually measured flood volume in the first scheme is 0.999, the ratio of the predicted flood volume to the actually measured flood volume basically meets 90-110%, but the ratio of the predicted maximum flood volume to the actually measured maximum flood volume is 0.807; the ratio of the predicted flood volume to the actually measured flood volume in the second scheme is 1.002, the ratio of the predicted flood volume to the actually measured flood volume basically meets 90-110%, and the ratio of the predicted maximum flood volume to the actually measured maximum flood volume is 0.954. Compared with the two schemes, the forecasting time interval is reduced, the flood forecasting has good predictability, the flood flow forecasting and the calculation accuracy of the flood quantity basically meet the requirements, the forecasting result of the method can better describe the development process of the flood in the whole field, and the calculation method is time-saving and simple, and has the characteristics of simplicity, quickness and the like compared with a flow calculation method and a corresponding water level method.
The foregoing is a preferred embodiment of the present invention, it is to be understood that the invention is not limited to the form disclosed herein, but is not to be construed as excluding other embodiments, and is capable of other combinations, modifications, and environments and is capable of changes within the scope of the inventive concept as expressed herein, commensurate with the above teachings, or the skill or knowledge of the relevant art. And that modifications and variations may be effected by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined by the appended claims.

Claims (4)

1. A small watershed short-term flood forecasting method based on a typical design flood process line is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
s1, acquiring design flood peak flow and a typical design flood process line of different ages of a small watershed river channel:
in small river domains, different ages T of river channels are determined1＜T2＜T3＜……＜TN-1＜TNDesigned peak flow Q1＜Q2＜Q3＜……＜QN-1＜QN(ii) a Wherein the nth year TnCorresponding design peak flow of Qn，n＝1,2,3,…,N；
Then, according to an integrated instantaneous unit line method or a polygonal process line method, calculating and determining typical design flood process lines of the river course in different years by combining the design flood peak flow of the river course in different years;
s2, judging whether the river channel starts to carry out short-term flood forecasting or not according to the actually measured flow:
obtaining the actually measured flow q of the river channel, and when the actually measured flow q is not lower than a certain age TnDesigned peak flow QnWhen the condition Q is satisfied, Q is equal to or more than QnJudging that the river channel starts short-term flood forecasting, and entering step S3, wherein the actual measurement flow q is the actual measurement flood flow; when the measured flow q is lower than a certain age TnDesigned peak flow QnWhen the condition Q < Q is satisfiednRepeatedly executing the step S2 until the river channel starts short-term flood forecasting;
s3, determining the forecasting time of the short-term flood forecasting according to the actually measured flood flow of the river channel:
the design flood peak flow of each year corresponds to a flood forecast time interval when the actual flood flow Q and the design flood peak flow Q are measuredn、Qn+1Satisfies the relationship: qn≤q＜Qn+1Determining the forecast time interval of flood at the moment as QnCorresponding Δ tn(ii) a According to the measured time tnAnd forecast time interval Δ tnIn combination with the formula tn+1＝tn+ΔtnDetermining the next forecast time tn+1；
S4, determining slope K according to typical design flood process line of corresponding agen：
At TnDetermining t on the design flood process line of the age limitnInstantaneous flood flow
Figure FDA0002643165240000011
tn+1Instantaneous flood flow
Figure FDA0002643165240000012
According to the slope calculation formula
Figure FDA0002643165240000013
Performing a calculation when tnMeasured flow at time tn-1Momentarily measured flow rate decrease, i.e. qn-1＞qnThen K isn-K; when t isnMeasured flow at time tn-1Increase of the measured flow at any moment, qn-1＜qnThen Kn＝K；
S5, according to tnActual measurement flood flow q at a momentnAnd slope KnDetermining tn+1Moment predicted flood flow q'n+1：
According to a linear equation formula q'n+1＝qn+Kn(tn+1-tn) Or q'n+1＝qn+KnΔtnDetermining tn+1Moment predicted flood flow q'n+1This predicted value q'n+1Is a publication of t to societyn+1A flood flow prediction value at a moment;
s6, according to tn+1And (3) judging whether the short-term flood forecast can be ended or not according to the actual flood flow at the moment:
when actually measuring floodWater flow qn+1Below a certain age TnDesigned peak flow QnWhen the condition q is satisfiedn+1＜QnJudging that the river channel finishes short-term flood forecasting, and entering step S8; when flood flow q is actually measuredn+1Not less than a certain age TnDesigned peak flow QnWhen the condition q is satisfiedn+1≥QnProceeding to step S7;
s7, according to tn+1Actual measurement flood flow q at a momentn+1And tn+1Predicted flood flow q 'of time'n+1For calculating the slope KnDesign flood process line ofnCorrecting;
according to the relation of the ratio
Figure FDA0002643165240000021
Calculating and determining a ratio A of the predicted flood flow to the actually measured flood flow;
if A is more than or equal to 90% and less than or equal to 110%, and the predicted flood flow is in a reasonable range of the actually-measured flood flow, the predicted flood flow meets the precision requirement, which indicates that the river flood at the moment meets TnDesign flood of age, then TnThe age does not need to be corrected, and the process returns to step S3;
if A is more than 110%, the predicted flood flow is higher than the upper limit of the reasonable range of the actually measured flood flow, and the predicted flood flow does not meet the precision requirement; if the actual flood flow rate is increased from the previous time, it indicates that the low-age limit T should be satisfiedn-1Design flood of (1), thennThe age needs to be corrected to Tn-1Wherein T isn-1＜TnAnd returns to step S3; if the actual flood flow rate is reduced from the previous time, it indicates that the high age limit T should be satisfiedn+1Design flood of (1), thennThe age needs to be corrected to Tn+1Wherein T isn+1＞TnReturning to step S3;
if A is less than 90%, the predicted flood flow is lower than the lower limit of the reasonable range of the actually measured flood flow, and the predicted flood flow does not meet the precision requirement; if the actual flood flow rate is increased from the previous time, it indicates that the high age limit T should be satisfiedn+1Design flood of (1), thennThe age needs to be corrected to Tn+1Wherein T isn+1＞TnReturning to step S3; if the actual flood flow rate is reduced from the previous time, it indicates that the low-age limit T should be satisfiedn-1Design flood of (1), thennThe age needs to be corrected to Tn-1Wherein T isn-1＜TnReturning to the step 3;
and S8, ending the short-term flood forecast.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: corresponding age T of design peak flow as determination condition in step S2nAnd the river channel characteristics and the importance of the protected objects are selected and determined in advance.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: in the step S3, the peak flow Q is designednThe larger, or TnTime interval of flood forecast for longer age
ΔtnThe smaller, i.e. Δ t1＞Δt2＞Δt3＞……＞ΔtN-1＞ΔtN。
4. The method of claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: in the step S7, the age T of the flood process line is designednGenerally by adjacent years Tn-1Or Tn+1The scheme for correcting is to replace T when the calculation error of the predicted flood flow is too largenBy Tn-2、Tn+2Or other age.
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