CN106875048A - Emergent Flood Forecasting Method based on success experience pattern - Google Patents
Emergent Flood Forecasting Method based on success experience pattern Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN106875048A CN106875048A CN201710068127.0A CN201710068127A CN106875048A CN 106875048 A CN106875048 A CN 106875048A CN 201710068127 A CN201710068127 A CN 201710068127A CN 106875048 A CN106875048 A CN 106875048A
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- flood
- forecast
- emergent
- history
- forecasting
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Pending
Links
- 238000013277 forecasting method Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 17
- 238000000034 method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 38
- 238000013461 design Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 34
- 238000001556 precipitation Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 17
- 238000010586 diagram Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 12
- 238000007619 statistical method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 6
- XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N water Substances O XLYOFNOQVPJJNP-UHFFFAOYSA-N 0.000 claims description 10
- 239000002689 soil Substances 0.000 claims description 9
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 description 3
- 238000009795 derivation Methods 0.000 description 3
- 238000005516 engineering process Methods 0.000 description 3
- 238000013459 approach Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000005540 biological transmission Effects 0.000 description 2
- 230000015572 biosynthetic process Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000004364 calculation method Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000000205 computational method Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000012937 correction Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000002498 deadly effect Effects 0.000 description 2
- 239000000463 material Substances 0.000 description 2
- 238000005259 measurement Methods 0.000 description 2
- 230000000630 rising effect Effects 0.000 description 2
- 238000003786 synthesis reaction Methods 0.000 description 2
- 238000006424 Flood reaction Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000009286 beneficial effect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 230000033228 biological regulation Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000004891 communication Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000007547 defect Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000012938 design process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000011161 development Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000004069 differentiation Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000004519 manufacturing process Methods 0.000 description 1
- 238000011160 research Methods 0.000 description 1
- 230000006641 stabilisation Effects 0.000 description 1
- 238000011105 stabilization Methods 0.000 description 1
- 239000005425 throughfall Substances 0.000 description 1
- 230000000007 visual effect Effects 0.000 description 1
Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/04—Forecasting or optimisation specially adapted for administrative or management purposes, e.g. linear programming or "cutting stock problem"
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01W—METEOROLOGY
- G01W1/00—Meteorology
- G01W1/10—Devices for predicting weather conditions
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Information and communication technology [ICT] specially adapted for implementation of business processes of specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/10—Services
- G06Q50/26—Government or public services
- G06Q50/265—Personal security, identity or safety
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A10/00—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE at coastal zones; at river basins
- Y02A10/40—Controlling or monitoring, e.g. of flood or hurricane; Forecasting, e.g. risk assessment or mapping
-
- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A90/00—Technologies having an indirect contribution to adaptation to climate change
- Y02A90/10—Information and communication technologies [ICT] supporting adaptation to climate change, e.g. for weather forecasting or climate simulation
Landscapes
- Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Strategic Management (AREA)
- Economics (AREA)
- Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
- Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
- Environmental & Geological Engineering (AREA)
- General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Development Economics (AREA)
- Marketing (AREA)
- Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
- General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
- Ecology (AREA)
- Operations Research (AREA)
- Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
- Life Sciences & Earth Sciences (AREA)
- Atmospheric Sciences (AREA)
- Biodiversity & Conservation Biology (AREA)
- Quality & Reliability (AREA)
- Environmental Sciences (AREA)
- Computer Security & Cryptography (AREA)
- Educational Administration (AREA)
- Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- General Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Primary Health Care (AREA)
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of emergent Flood Forecasting Method based on success experience pattern, including statistical analysis is carried out to history observed flood key element, as the basic according to data set of emergent flood forecasting；Following flood was met to 10 years one to be refined using interpolation method, designed flood hydrograph table is obtained according to refinement interpolation method；By the master dependency key element view of history observed flood, it is abscissa to set up with " Precipitation amount P+ early stages influence rainfall Pa " value, acts the historical flood scatter diagram that flow is ordinate that rises；Qualitative, quantitative, water-break forecast is carried out according to history observed flood and design flood characteristic value.This invention ensures that can be forecast accurately and in time under any circumstance, promptness of the Real-time Flood Forecasting for Basin Rainfall data, integrity demands, and simple easily implementation are reduced.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of emergent Flood Forecasting Method based on success experience pattern, belong to flood forecasting technology neck
Domain.
Background technology
According to current weather forecast development level and forecast precision, available short-term rainfall forecast information is referred mainly to not
Carry out the rainfall forecast information of 24h and 48h.With enriching for Flood Forecasting Theory and continuing to develop for forecasting technique, the essence of forecast
Degree and leading time are all greatly increased, and flood forecasting Information application is increasingly taken seriously in reservoir operation.Since
Throughfall forecast (i.e. flood forecasting) is the foundation of reservoir operation, then reservoir operation just has higher wanting to flood forecasting
Ask：Can be forecast accurately and in time under any circumstance.
At home in reservoir operation complex automatic system, flood forecasting scheme is with Xinanjiang model, two kinds of moulds of API models
Based on type.Two kinds of promptnesses of model method watershed rainfall data, integrity demands are higher, it is necessary to have complete rainfall and water
Literary control station data, by the flood forecasting program being molded, forms final Prediction version after complex calculation, and unimpeded to communicating
The dependence of rate, automated system stability and network stabilization is strong, can only solve (including road, traffic, logical under normal circumstances
News, electric power, information gathering transmission etc. are normal) flood forecasting problem；And for great flood, extraodinary flood during occur very
In the case of (typically produce road, traffic, communication, electric power, information gathering transmission etc. be susceptible to interrupt) flood forecasting may
The serious problems that can not in time make or even cannot make occur, it is therefore necessary to for the emergent flood of own actual situation establishment
Water Prediction version, enables that flood forecasting is round-the-clock to be carried out.
The content of the invention
The technical problems to be solved by the invention are the defects for overcoming prior art, there is provided one kind is based on success experience pattern
Emergent Flood Forecasting Method, historical flood and design flood are surveyed as basic document with history, according to hydrology phenomenon in this stream
Similitude this principle on domain, the emergent flood forecasting scheme of establishment.
In order to solve the above technical problems, the present invention carries a kind of emergent Flood Forecasting Method based on success experience pattern, bag
Include following steps：
1) statistical analysis is carried out to history observed flood master dependency key element, as the basic according to data of emergent flood forecasting
Collection；
2) met following flood to 10 years one to be refined using interpolation method, design flood process is obtained according to refinement interpolation method
Line table；
3) by the master dependency key element view of history observed flood, set up with " Precipitation amount P+ early stages influence rainfall Pa "
It is abscissa to be worth, and acts the historical flood scatter diagram that flow is ordinate that rises, and according to " Precipitation amount P+ early stages influence rainfall
Pa " values mark general flood, small flood, medium flood, great flood, the scope of extraodinary flood successively；
4) forecast stage by stage according to history observed flood master dependency key element value and designed flood hydrograph table, including the
The qualitative forecast of one stage, second stage quantitative forecast, phase III water-break forecast.
Foregoing step 1) in, history observed flood master dependency key element includes that flood numbering, crest discharge, early stage soil contain
Water Pa values, rise and rise flow, Precipitation amount P, 7 days magnanimity, P+Pa values and runoff coefficients.
Foregoing step 1) in, the side that statistical analysis is counted or drawn using list is carried out to history observed flood key element
Formula.
Foregoing step 1) in, the general flood, small flood, medium flood, great flood, the criteria for classifying of extraodinary flood
For：Work as P+Pa in selected basin<It is general flood when 90, when 90<P+Pa<120 be small flood, when 120<P+Pa<In being when 150
Deng flood, when 150<P+Pa<It is great flood when 190, works as P+Pa>It is extraodinary flood when 190.
Foregoing qualitative forecast refers to according to the antecedent soil moisture Pa values of current flood, acts rise flow, Precipitation
Amount P, in the step 3) historical flood scatter diagram in obtain a data point, the position according to where the data point makes small
The forecast of flood, medium flood, great flood or extraodinary flood.
Foregoing quantitative forecast refers to according to the antecedent soil moisture Pa values of current flood, acts rise flow, Precipitation
Amount P, in the step 3) historical flood scatter diagram in obtain a data point, selection and the hithermost history flood of the data point
Water process carries out quantitative forecast.
It is foregoing near referring to most short with the data point air line distance.
Foregoing water-break forecast refer to current flood flood peak occur after with flood peak, the peak of history observed flood before magnanimity enter
Row compares, with flood peak it is similar based on, before peak magnanimity it is similar supplemented by, select the water-break process of the historical flood similar to current flood
To forecast the water-break process of this flood；If current flood is maximum history, maximum flood is surveyed far beyond history, then used
The flood for having occurred is contrasted with the design flood of different frequency, looks for similar rise process, then from 200 years, 300
Year one meets or bigger design flood process forecasts the water-break process of this flood.
The beneficial effect that the present invention is reached：
(1) present invention utilizes rendered P+Pa, rise flow and historical flood scatter diagram is acted, using forecast side stage by stage
Method, helps to make more accurate judgement for actual flood regime and basin feature, can be made in rainfall
Qualitative forecast more than a certain rank (such as 20 years one meet) flood will occur, it is therefore foreseen that the phase in advance for flood proofing decision meaning weight
Greatly.Peb process needs the time, and the leading time of quantitative forecast is very long, and in earliest flood-fighting work, meaning is less than qualitative
Forecast.The quantitative forecast again on the basis of qualitative forecast, it will preferably play the important function of flood forecasting.
(2) emergent Flood Forecasting Method of the invention, rainfall data can use rain making and automatic telemetry rainfall two
Plant data.For automatic telemetry rainfall, even if indivedual survey station failures or damage, can also calculate the average rainfall in basin, Bu Huizhi
Connect and have influence on manufacturing for flood forecasting scheme.
(3) emergent Flood Forecasting Method of the invention receives automated system, network service and flood forecasting running software shape
Condition influence is small, and it is to be capable of achieving the making of flood forecasting only to need the application software such as a simple computation machine equipment and electrical form, together
When, also manually hand computation mode flood forecasting can be realized using simple auxiliary calculating instrument (such as calculator).
(4) inventive process ensures that can accurately and in time carry out flood forecasting under any circumstance, flood in real time is reduced
Water forecasts promptness, integrity demands for Basin Rainfall data, it is to avoid basin must have complete rainfall and hydrology control
Station data processed, for great flood, extraodinary flood during occur deadly condition under flood forecasting it is possible that can not be timely
The serious problems made or even cannot make are evaded.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is P+Pa of the invention, acts rise flow and historical flood scatter diagram.
Specific embodiment
The invention will be further described below.Following examples are only used for clearly illustrating technical side of the invention
Case, and can not be limited the scope of the invention with this.
Emergent Flood Forecasting Method of the invention is basic document to survey historical flood and design flood, existing according to the hydrology
As this principle of the similitude on this basin, research basin heavy rain, floor regulation are analysed in depth, propose that flood forecasting is " normal
Situation, it is reliable and stable；Deadly condition, it is simple and practical；It is first qualitative, quantitative again " emergent flood forecasting new approaches.Applicable object master
If medium above flood, especially to great flood, the extraodinary flood value of forecasting more preferably.
Emergent flood forecasting scheme makes every effort to simple and practical, the non-reason occurred during can solving great flood, extraodinary flood
Flood forecasting problem under condition.
Present invention application actual measurement historical flood first and the emergent flood forecasting scheme set of design flood data establishment, then root
Factually the original state on border, precipitation, reservoir inflow and trend, find similar flood as forecast according to flood in scheme set
Water, carrying out appropriate adjustment according to flood according to weather report carries out flood forecasting.It is specific as follows：
1st, history observed flood and design flood materials compilation are analyzed
Design flood is defined：It is being drafted for engineering designs such as flood controls, meeting specified design standard of flood control, local possible
The flood of appearance.That is plan for flood control and flood control works is expected the maximum flood set up defences.
Property and hydrological data condition according to engineering use different computational methods.In general, take various
Approach is calculated, and comprehensive analysis is proved and reasonable selection achievement.Conventional computational methods have：
A, according to flow data Derivation Design flood.There is flood-discharge measurement more long to provide near engineering location or its
Material, and when having historical flood data several times, chooses flood peak discharge then and different periods (such as 1 day, 3 days and 7 year by year
It etc.) maximum magnanimity, separately constitute flood peak discharge and different periods maximum magnanimity series, then carry out frequency analysis,
To determine corresponding to the synthesis design of design standard and period design magnanimity.Finally, model flood hydrograph is selected, by what is obtained
Synthesis design and day part design magnanimity, same frequency are carried out to model flood hydrograph or are amplified with multiple proportions, as design flood
Graph.
B, according to Rainfall data Derivation Design flood.When engineering location and its neighbouring flood discharge data system are too short,
When being not enough to directly be carried out that there is serial Rainfall data more long in frequency analysis, but basin with flood discharge data, can first try to achieve
Design storm, then by producing stream and runoff concentration calculation, Derivation Design flood peak, magnanimity and flood hydrograph.The method is it is assumed that certain weight
Current heavy rain produces the flood of identical return period.
If c, the flood discharge in engineering location and Rainfall data are short, can be in the similar stream of physical geography condition
Domain, flood discharge, rainfall and historical flood data to there is data basin are analyzed and comprehensive, are depicted as the various return periods
Crest discharge, rainfall, stream parameter and confluence parameter isogram are produced, or by these parameters and basin nature geography characteristic (basin
Area and stream gradient etc.) empirical relation is set up, the design flood in design place is then calculated by these charts and empirical relation
Water.
With modes such as list, drawing, the principal character and flood of simple, intuitive ground displaying history observed flood and design flood
Water process, as the basic according to data set of emergent flood forecasting.
1.1 list statistical analysis history observed flood master dependency key elements
History observed flood master dependency key element is included：Flood number (flood is numbered, and is represented with the date of flood peak time of occurrence),
Crest discharge, antecedent soil moisture Pa values, act the flow that rises, Precipitation amount P, 7 days magnanimity, P+Pa values, runoff coefficients etc..Pin
Historical flood is actually occurred to certain basin, information above count is obtained flood master dependency key element statistical information.
Table 1 certain river basin flood master dependency key element Data-Statistics table
1.2 designed flood hydrograph interpolations
The characteristic value of design flood is included：The magnanimity of crest discharge and its return period, maximum 3 days, 7 days magnanimity etc..Due to setting
Meter return period of flood is met for only 5 years one below being met at 10 years one, and medium and small flood is fewer.So meet within 10 years one following flood using
Interpolation method is refined, draw 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, 4 years, 6 years, 7 years, 8 years, the design process line of flood is met within 9 years one, according to thin
Change interpolation method and obtain designed flood hydrograph table 2 and table 3.
Design flood typically only 10 years, 30 years, century-old, 500 years, a flood hydrograph met in 1000, are not each and every one
The flood hydrograph of return period has, therefore the present invention is using the design flood process of method each return period of completion of interpolation.
In table, design frequency P refers to the chance of flood appearance, and year is the return period of flood, and data are different frequency
(return period) corresponding peb process data, which represent flood occur frequency, such as 10% represent 10 years one meet floods,
1% represents once-in-a-century flood etc..
Certain basin designed flood hydrograph table (one) of table 2
Certain basin designed flood hydrograph table (two) of table 3
1.3 history observed flood master dependency key element views
The original state of one flood mainly includes：Antecedent soil moisture Pa values and rising rise flow.Original state and mistake
The size and Rainfall Characteristics of journey precipitation P determine a size for flood.
In order to analyze more Simple visual, according to history observed flood data, master dependency key element view is set up with P+Pa
For abscissa, to act the flow that rises be " P+Pa, rise rise flow and historical flood scatter diagram " of ordinate.As shown in figure 1, in figure
Flood numbering is marked in flood idea, and general flood, small flood, medium flood, great flood, spy are marked according to P+Pa values successively
Diluvial scope.
According to《Hydrological Information and Forecasting specification》, the grade classification of flood is：Flood of the hydrographic features return period less than 5 years,
It is small flood；The hydrographic features return period is more than or equal to 5 years, and the flood less than 20 years is medium flood；The hydrographic features return period is
More than or equal to 20 years, the flood of below 50 years was great flood；Flood of the hydrographic features return period more than 50 years, is extraodinary flood.
Flood Grades of the invention are arranged according to basin feature, for the empirical differentiation knot that basin feature is summarized
Really.Basin is selected in the present invention and works as P+Pa<It is general flood when 90, when 90<P+Pa<120 be small flood, when 120<P+Pa<
It is medium flood when 150, when 150<P+Pa<It is great flood when 190, works as P+Pa>It is extraodinary flood when 190, so ratio is united
Meter is calculated can more be rapidly performed by flood division.
When using, on the diagram according to P+Pa, act the specific data point obtaining of data of the flow that rises, Precipitation amount P
Son, using hithermost that historical flood of idea as the foundation of forecast.
2 carry out first qualitative, quantitative forecast again according to history observed flood and design flood characteristic value
Emergent flood forecasting point three phases：First stage is qualitative forecast；Second stage is quantitative forecast；Phase III
It is water-break forecast.
First stage qualitative forecast：Flood forecasting first has to solve crucial problem.For flood control department, make early
The qualitative forecast of one flood is extremely crucial, and flood control personnel know what kind of countermeasure the flood that much ranks occur will take.Root
According to the original state (antecedent soil moisture Pa values, rise rise flow) of current flood, Precipitation amount P and a nearest period
Reservoir inflow and trend, by tabling look-up and historical flood scatter diagram, make qualitative (small flood, medium flood, great flood, especially big
Flood) forecast.Original state and Precipitation amount P such as according to current flood, work as P+Pa>Can determine when 150 current
Flood reached diluvial rank, but due to the increase of follow-up rainfall, the value of P+Pa also continuing to increase,
So can qualitatively be judged.
Second stage quantitative forecast：According to the P+pa of current flood, the corresponding data point position of flow that rises is acted, selected and it
Hithermost historical flood process is applied by fine setting or directly, completes quantitative forecast.Here near refer to straight line away from
From most short.
The fine setting refers to finding that more like point according to original state.
Phase III water-break is forecast：
Preferably it is Flood Control Dispatch service, it is necessary to which real time correction is carried out to Prediction version to improve forecast precision, according to
The adjustment of the information such as rainfall, the flow for occurring in real time, amendment Prediction version, and carry out water-break forecast.
Real time correction refers to be forecast again according to the rainfall, flow information for continuously emerging.Mainly consider to produce flood
Rainfall and flow information are all changed in real time during water, so as to need to carry out flood forecasting according to up-to-date information again.
Water-break forecast using the similar method being combined of magnanimity before flood peak phase Sihe peak, with flood peak it is similar based on, flood before peak
Supplemented by amount is similar, similar flood is selected.
(1) history observed flood is similar, this flood peak occur after with flood peak, the peak of observed flood in history before magnanimity carry out
Compare, find out similar flood, the water-break process of this flood is forecast with the water-break process of similar flood.
(2) it is similar to design flood, if this flood is maximum history, maximum flood is surveyed far beyond history,
In the case of through can not find the similar flood for actually occurring, then just according to flood rising trend situation (with the flood that has occurred with
The design flood of different frequency is contrasted, and looks for similar rise process), then from 200 years, 300 years chances or bigger
Design flood process forecast the water-break process of this flood.
The above is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention, it is noted that for the ordinary skill people of the art
For member, on the premise of the technology of the present invention principle is not departed from, some improvement and deformation can also be made, these improve and deform
Also should be regarded as protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (8)
1. the emergent Flood Forecasting Method of success experience pattern is based on, it is characterised in that comprised the following steps：
1）Statistical analysis is carried out to history observed flood master dependency key element, as the basic according to data set of emergent flood forecasting；
2）Following flood was met to 10 years one to be refined using interpolation method, designed flood hydrograph is obtained according to refinement interpolation method
Table；
3）The master dependency key element view of history observed flood is set up with " Precipitation amount P+early stage influence rainfall Pa " value
It is abscissa, acts the historical flood scatter diagram that flow is ordinate that rises, and according to " Precipitation amount P+early stage influence rainfall Pa "
Value marks general flood, small flood, medium flood, great flood, the scope of extraodinary flood successively；
4）Forecast stage by stage according to history observed flood master dependency key element value and designed flood hydrograph table, including the first rank
Section qualitative forecast, second stage quantitative forecast, phase III water-break forecast.
2. the emergent Flood Forecasting Method based on success experience pattern according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the step
Rapid 1）In, history observed flood master dependency key element includes flood numbering, crest discharge, antecedent soil moisture Pa values, rise stream
Amount, Precipitation amount P, 7 days magnanimity, P+Pa values and runoff coefficients.
3. the emergent Flood Forecasting Method based on success experience pattern according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the step
Rapid 1）In, history observed flood key element is carried out statistical analysis using list count or draw by the way of.
4. the emergent Flood Forecasting Method based on success experience pattern according to claim 1, it is characterised in that the step
Rapid 1）In, the general flood, small flood, medium flood, great flood, the criteria for classifying of extraodinary flood are：Work as P+ in selected basin
Pa<It is general flood when 90, when 90<P+Pa<120 be small flood, when 120<P+Pa<It is medium flood when 150, when 150<P+
Pa<It is great flood when 190, works as P+Pa>It is extraodinary flood when 190.
5. the emergent Flood Forecasting Method based on success experience pattern according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described fixed
Property forecast refer to according to the antecedent soil moisture Pa values of current flood, rise flow, Precipitation amount P, in the step 3）
Historical flood scatter diagram in obtain a data point, small flood, medium flood, big is made in the position according to where the data point
The forecast of flood or extraodinary flood.
6. the emergent Flood Forecasting Method based on success experience pattern according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described fixed
Amount forecast refer to according to the antecedent soil moisture Pa values of current flood, rise flow, Precipitation amount P, in the step 3）
Historical flood scatter diagram in obtain a data point, selection carries out quantitatively pre- with the hithermost historical flood process of the data point
Report.
7. the emergent Flood Forecasting Method based on success experience pattern according to claim 6, it is characterised in that it is described most
It refers to most short with the data point air line distance to be close to.
8. the emergent Flood Forecasting Method based on success experience pattern according to claim 1, it is characterised in that described to move back
Water forecast refer to current flood flood peak occur after with flood peak, the peak of history observed flood before magnanimity be compared, with flood peak phase
Like based on, before peak magnanimity it is similar supplemented by, select the water-break process of the historical flood similar to current flood to forecast this flood
Water-break process；If current flood is maximum history, maximum flood is surveyed far beyond history, then with the flood for having occurred
Design flood with different frequency is contrasted, and looks for similar rise process, then from 200 years, 300 years chances or bigger
Design flood process forecast the water-break process of this flood.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710068127.0A CN106875048A (en) | 2017-02-07 | 2017-02-07 | Emergent Flood Forecasting Method based on success experience pattern |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710068127.0A CN106875048A (en) | 2017-02-07 | 2017-02-07 | Emergent Flood Forecasting Method based on success experience pattern |
Publications (1)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN106875048A true CN106875048A (en) | 2017-06-20 |
Family
ID=59165818
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201710068127.0A Pending CN106875048A (en) | 2017-02-07 | 2017-02-07 | Emergent Flood Forecasting Method based on success experience pattern |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN106875048A (en) |
Cited By (10)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN107542058A (en) * | 2017-09-01 | 2018-01-05 | 中国电建集团中南勘测设计研究院有限公司 | A kind of tune flood computational methods for undertaking the reservoir of downstream flood control task |
| CN107609707A (en) * | 2017-09-20 | 2018-01-19 | 福建四创软件有限公司 | A kind of flood forecasting, disaster prevention decision method and system |
| CN109146170A (en) * | 2018-08-17 | 2019-01-04 | 国家电网有限公司 | A kind of Astronomical Factors recognition methods influencing reservoir year water |
| CN109409597A (en) * | 2018-10-23 | 2019-03-01 | 南瑞集团有限公司 | A kind of medium-term and long-term great flood forecasting procedure based on genetic analysis |
| CN109444988A (en) * | 2018-11-02 | 2019-03-08 | 河海大学 | A kind of hydrologic forecast device based on Internet of Things |
| CN109696715A (en) * | 2017-10-20 | 2019-04-30 | 山东省水文局 | One kind receives rain energy force forecasting method |
| CN110929956A (en) * | 2019-12-06 | 2020-03-27 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Flood forecasting scheme real-time optimization method based on machine learning |
| CN111639826A (en) * | 2020-07-06 | 2020-09-08 | 贵州东方世纪科技股份有限公司 | Flood early warning grade division and early warning method |
| CN111932023A (en) * | 2020-08-21 | 2020-11-13 | 四川大学 | Small-watershed short-term flood forecasting method based on typical design flood process line |
| CN114020975A (en) * | 2021-10-27 | 2022-02-08 | 华能西藏雅鲁藏布江水电开发投资有限公司 | Method for automatically screening flood field |
Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US20040199410A1 (en) * | 2003-01-07 | 2004-10-07 | Hans Feyen | Method for evaluating flood plain risks |
| CN105862651A (en) * | 2016-01-13 | 2016-08-17 | 辽宁省水利水电科学研究院 | Intelligent four-quadrant flood regulation method for middle-sized and small-sized reservoirs |
| CN106355274A (en) * | 2016-08-26 | 2017-01-25 | 大唐陈村水力发电厂 | Auxiliary system for flood defense dispatching decision |
-
2017
- 2017-02-07 CN CN201710068127.0A patent/CN106875048A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US20040199410A1 (en) * | 2003-01-07 | 2004-10-07 | Hans Feyen | Method for evaluating flood plain risks |
| CN105862651A (en) * | 2016-01-13 | 2016-08-17 | 辽宁省水利水电科学研究院 | Intelligent four-quadrant flood regulation method for middle-sized and small-sized reservoirs |
| CN106355274A (en) * | 2016-08-26 | 2017-01-25 | 大唐陈村水力发电厂 | Auxiliary system for flood defense dispatching decision |
Non-Patent Citations (1)
| Title |
|---|
| 滕培宋 等: "郁江南宁"2001·7"大洪水预报分析", 《人民珠江》 * |
Cited By (12)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN107542058A (en) * | 2017-09-01 | 2018-01-05 | 中国电建集团中南勘测设计研究院有限公司 | A kind of tune flood computational methods for undertaking the reservoir of downstream flood control task |
| CN107609707A (en) * | 2017-09-20 | 2018-01-19 | 福建四创软件有限公司 | A kind of flood forecasting, disaster prevention decision method and system |
| CN109696715A (en) * | 2017-10-20 | 2019-04-30 | 山东省水文局 | One kind receives rain energy force forecasting method |
| CN109146170A (en) * | 2018-08-17 | 2019-01-04 | 国家电网有限公司 | A kind of Astronomical Factors recognition methods influencing reservoir year water |
| CN109409597A (en) * | 2018-10-23 | 2019-03-01 | 南瑞集团有限公司 | A kind of medium-term and long-term great flood forecasting procedure based on genetic analysis |
| CN109444988A (en) * | 2018-11-02 | 2019-03-08 | 河海大学 | A kind of hydrologic forecast device based on Internet of Things |
| CN109444988B (en) * | 2018-11-02 | 2021-08-13 | 河海大学 | Hydrology forecasting device based on thing networking |
| CN110929956A (en) * | 2019-12-06 | 2020-03-27 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Flood forecasting scheme real-time optimization method based on machine learning |
| CN111639826A (en) * | 2020-07-06 | 2020-09-08 | 贵州东方世纪科技股份有限公司 | Flood early warning grade division and early warning method |
| CN111932023A (en) * | 2020-08-21 | 2020-11-13 | 四川大学 | Small-watershed short-term flood forecasting method based on typical design flood process line |
| CN111932023B (en) * | 2020-08-21 | 2023-04-07 | 四川大学 | Small-watershed short-term flood forecasting method based on typical design flood process line |
| CN114020975A (en) * | 2021-10-27 | 2022-02-08 | 华能西藏雅鲁藏布江水电开发投资有限公司 | Method for automatically screening flood field |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| CN106875048A (en) | Emergent Flood Forecasting Method based on success experience pattern | |
| CN112070286B (en) | Precipitation forecast and early warning system for complex terrain river basin | |
| Smakhtin et al. | Review, automated estimation and analyses of drought indices in South Asia | |
| CN108375808A (en) | Dense fog forecasting procedures of the NRIET based on machine learning | |
| CN109272146A (en) | A kind of Forecasting Flood method corrected based on deep learning model and BP neural network | |
| CN105335603B (en) | A kind of method for measuring diversion irrigation area degree of drought | |
| CN103713336A (en) | Hydropower station basin areal rainfall meteorology forecast method based on GIS subarea | |
| CN106598917A (en) | Upper ocean thermal structure prediction method based on deep belief network | |
| CN105787289A (en) | River feature data classifying system and method | |
| CN109815611B (en) | Basin boundary generating method based on digital basin | |
| CN111143498B (en) | Small river flood forecasting method | |
| CN114970377A (en) | Method and system for field flood forecasting based on Xinanjiang and deep learning coupling model | |
| KR100920529B1 (en) | Method of estimating salt contamination | |
| CN114093133A (en) | Regional geological disaster weather forecast early warning method | |
| Farzana et al. | Application of swat model for assessing water availability in Surma River basin | |
| CN107944466A (en) | A kind of rainfall bias correction method based on segmentation thought | |
| CN116682236A (en) | Urban waterlogging forecasting and early warning method | |
| CN112508315A (en) | Flood prevention consultation system | |
| CN106355264A (en) | Combined prediction method of reference crop evapotranspiration | |
| CN113269376B (en) | River flood peak flow range calculation method | |
| Hartomo et al. | SPATIAL MODEL OF KOPPEN CLIMATE CLASSIFICATION USING THIESSEN POLYGON OPTIMIZATION ALGORITHM. | |
| CN112528563B (en) | Urban waterlogging early warning method based on SVM algorithm | |
| CN109063896A (en) | A kind of recognition methods of the Northeast's snowmelt runoff Start Date | |
| CN111047213B (en) | Medium-long term water resource quantity critical early warning index method based on multi-element joint discrimination | |
| CN117436619B (en) | Cascade reservoir flood control reservoir capacity combined reservation method based on equivalent flood control effect |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| RJ01 | Rejection of invention patent application after publication |
Application publication date: 20170620 |
|
| RJ01 | Rejection of invention patent application after publication |