CN114969655A - Simulation estimation method for sediment transport amount of drainage basin - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a simulation estimation method of a basin sediment transport amount, which comprises the following steps: collecting and settling silt data of outlet stations of the drainage basin, daily rainfall data of the whole drainage basin, and control area and total storage capacity of large and medium-sized reservoirs built in the drainage basin; identifying effective rainfall A and effective rain intensity I which play a key role in the sediment transport capacity of the drainage basin, calculating the sediment blocking efficiency TE of the reservoir in the drainage basin, and establishing the combined distribution F of the effective rainfall A and the effective rain intensity I n Coupling the reservoir sand blocking index with TE to construct a rainfall-coupled reservoir sand blocking index RSTI; establishing a plurality of linear regression models and nonlinear regression models for simulating sand transportation quantity; and performing parameter estimation on the multiple linear and nonlinear regression models, comparing simulation effects of different models, and selecting a model with the optimal simulation effect and the minimum residual error as a sand transportation quantity simulation estimation model. The invention can accurately describe the coupling effect of rainfall and reservoir on the sand transportation amount, and solves the problem of poor precision caused by only independently considering the influence of rainfall and reservoir on the sand transportation amount in the prior artAnd (5) problems are solved.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of hydrology and water resources, and particularly relates to a simulation estimation method for a drainage basin sand transportation amount.
Background
In recent decades, as climate change and human activities are increased, the amount of sand transported in the river channels in most basins is remarkably reduced. The silt plays an important role in the aspects of river course evolution, terrain formation, ecological environment development and the like. The silt mainly comes from soil erosion of water flow to the earth surface, wherein rainfall erosion is the main reason, and the sand transportation amount of a downstream river channel is greatly reduced due to human activities, particularly the interception effect of a reservoir. The rainfall directly erodes the earth surface to generate sediment on one hand, and influences the scheduling operation of the reservoir on the other hand, so that the analysis of the coupling effect of the rainfall and the reservoir on the sediment has important significance for the exploration of the sediment transport amount change rule under the change environment, the construction operation of large and medium-sized reservoirs and the like.
At present, the influence of a single factor on the sand transportation amount is generally considered for the attribution simulation of the sand transportation amount, the interaction among different influence factors is omitted, and meanwhile, the construction of the relation between the sand transportation amount and the influence factors is mostly based on a linear regression model. Considering the interaction between the nonlinear characteristics of the hydrological system and the influence factors, the method for estimating the sediment transport volume of the basin through simulation needs further research.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a simulation estimation method of the basin sediment transport amount aiming at the defects of the prior art, which can accurately describe the coupling effect of rainfall and a reservoir on the sediment transport amount and solve the problem that the existing attribution analysis technology only can independently consider the influence of the rainfall and the reservoir on the sediment transport amount to cause larger errors.
In order to solve the technical problems, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a simulation estimation method for the sediment transport amount of a drainage basin comprises the following steps:
step 1: collecting and sorting silt data of a drainage basin outlet station, daily rainfall data of the whole drainage basin, and control area and total storage capacity of large and medium-sized reservoirs built in the drainage basin;
step 2: identifying effective rainfall A and effective rain intensity I which play a key role in the sediment transport amount of the drainage basin, calculating the sediment blocking efficiency TE of the drainage basin reservoir, and establishing the joint distribution F of the effective rainfall A and the effective rain intensity I n Coupling the reservoir sand blocking efficiency with the river basin reservoir sand blocking efficiency TE to construct a reservoir sand blocking index RSTI of coupled rainfall;
and step 3: establishing a plurality of linear regression models and nonlinear regression models for simulating the sand transportation amount, wherein covariates of the linear regression models and the nonlinear regression models comprise the effective rainfall A, the effective rainfall I, the effective rainfall and the effective rainfall combined distribution F in the step 2 n The reservoir sand blocking efficiency TE and the reservoir sand blocking index RSTI;
and 4, step 4: and performing parameter estimation on the multiple linear and nonlinear regression models, comparing simulation effects of different models, and selecting a model with the optimal simulation effect and the minimum residual error as a sand transportation quantity simulation estimation model.
Further, the specific process of step 2 is as follows:
step 2.1: selecting rainfall TL of different threshold levels to calculate corresponding rainfall and rainfall intensity, and then selecting the rainfall and the rainfall intensity which are most relevant to the sand transportation amount based on Pearson correlation to be respectively used as effective rainfall A and effective rainfall I;
step 2.2: the influence of the effective rainfall and the effective rainfall intensity on the sand transportation amount is quantified by using the joint no-exceeding probability, and the joint distribution of the effective rainfall A and the effective rainfall intensity I is constructed based on the experience Copula:
in the formula, F n (a, I) is an empirical joint distribution function of effective rainfall A and effective rain intensity I; n is the sample size, A j A sample representing an effective rainfall, a given a certain rainfall observation; i is j A sample representing the effective rain intensity, i being a given certain rain intensity observation.
Step 2.3: calculating the sand blocking efficiency of the basin reservoir according to the collected total storage capacity information of the large and medium sized reservoirs in the basin:
wherein N is the total number of large and medium reservoirs in the basin, V i Is the total storage capacity of the ith reservoir,
the average runoff of a watershed outlet hydrological station for many years, wherein alpha is a correction coefficient related to the geographic position, physical characteristics, operation mode and the like of a reservoir;
step 2.4: combined distribution F of effective rainfall A and effective rain intensity I n Coupling with the sediment storage efficiency TE of the reservoir in the drainage basin, and constructing a reservoir sediment storage index RSTI of coupled rainfall as follows:
among them, the mathematical expectation of RSTI is f (RSTI) ═ TE.
Further, the method for calculating the corresponding rainfall and the rainfall intensity in the step 2.1 comprises the following steps: and summing the daily rainfall of the annual rainfall intensity greater than or equal to the given rainfall intensity TL to obtain the corresponding rainfall, and averaging the daily rainfall of the annual rainfall intensity greater than or equal to the given TL to obtain the corresponding rainfall intensity.
Further, in the step 3, the influence of rainfall and reservoir coupling on the sand transportation amount is considered, and the RSTI is selected as a covariate; selecting an effective rainfall A, an effective rainfall intensity I or a combined distribution Fn of the effective rainfall and the effective rainfall intensity as covariates when considering the influence of rainfall on the sand transporting amount; and selecting the reservoir sand blocking efficiency TE as a covariate when considering the influence of the reservoir on the sand transporting amount.
Further, the specific method in step 4 is as follows:
performing parameter estimation on the different models constructed in the step 3 by adopting a least square method, comparing correlation coefficients R and NSE values of the different models, and selecting the model with the maximum correlation coefficient R and NSE values as an optimal model; wherein, the calculation formulas of R and NSE are respectively:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
is the actual sand transporting amount in the t year；
Is the simulated sand transportation amount in the t year;
and
the average values of the measured value and the analog value are respectively; and selecting the model with the maximum R and NSE values as the optimal model.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that: the invention not only considers the influence of rainfall on the sand transportation amount, but also considers the influence of the reservoir on the sand transportation amount, the established model can accurately describe the coupling effect of the rainfall and the reservoir on the sand transportation amount, the problem of larger error caused by only independently considering the influence of the rainfall and the reservoir on the sand transportation amount in the existing attribution analysis technology is solved, the influence of the coupling effect of the rainfall and the reservoir on the change rule of the sand transportation amount in the change environment can be accurately analyzed, and the invention has important guiding significance on the construction and operation of large and medium-sized reservoirs. The method can provide a quantitative attribution analysis method or a sand transportation amount simulation estimation method with better effect for the watershed influenced by human activities (mainly reservoir construction).
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a simulation estimation method of the sediment transport amount of a drainage basin according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a graph showing the relationship between RSTI and the combined distribution Fn of effective rainfall and effective rainfall intensity and the sand blocking efficiency TE of the reservoir in the embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 3 is a distribution diagram of Ujiang river basin of the upstream tributary of Changjiang river according to the embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a diagram of the correlation between the sand transportation amount and all covariates according to the embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating a simulation process of sand transportation by different models according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a residual box plot of different models according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
It should be noted that the embodiments and features of the embodiments may be combined with each other without conflict.
The present invention is further illustrated by the following examples, which are not to be construed as limiting the invention.
As shown in fig. 1, the invention discloses a simulation estimation method of the sediment transport amount of a drainage basin, comprising the following steps:
step 1: collecting and sorting silt data of a drainage basin outlet station, daily rainfall data of the whole drainage basin, and control area and total storage capacity of large and medium-sized reservoirs built in the drainage basin;
step 2: identifying effective rainfall A and effective rain intensity I which play a key role in the sediment transport amount of the drainage basin, calculating the sediment blocking efficiency TE of the drainage basin reservoir, and establishing the joint distribution F of the effective rainfall A and the effective rain intensity I n Coupling the reservoir sand blocking efficiency with the river basin reservoir sand blocking efficiency TE to construct a reservoir sand blocking index RSTI of coupled rainfall; in the step, the concrete process of constructing the reservoir sand blocking index RSTI is as follows:
step 2.1: selecting rainfall TL of different threshold levels to calculate corresponding rainfall and rainfall intensity: summing the daily rainfall of which the annual rainfall intensity is greater than or equal to the given rainfall intensity TL to obtain corresponding rainfall, averaging the daily rainfall of which the annual rainfall intensity is greater than or equal to the given TL to obtain corresponding rainfall intensity, and then selecting the rainfall and the rainfall intensity which are most relevant to the sand transportation amount based on Pearson correlation as effective rainfall A and effective rainfall I respectively;
step 2.2: the influence of the effective rainfall and the effective rainfall intensity on the sand transportation amount is quantified by using the joint no-exceeding probability, and the joint distribution of the effective rainfall A and the effective rainfall intensity I is constructed based on the experience Copula:
in the formula, F n (a, I) is an empirical joint distribution function of effective rainfall A and effective rain intensity I; n is the sample size, A j A sample representing an effective rainfall, a given a certain rainfall observation; i is j A sample representing the effective rain intensity, i being a given certain rain intensity observation.
Step 2.3: calculating the sand blocking efficiency of the basin reservoir according to the collected total storage capacity information of the large and medium sized reservoirs in the basin:
wherein N is the total number of large and medium reservoirs in the watershed, V i Is the total storage capacity of the ith reservoir,
the average runoff of a watershed outlet hydrological station for many years, wherein alpha is a correction coefficient related to the geographic position, physical characteristics, operation mode and the like of a reservoir;
step 2.4: combined distribution F of effective rainfall A and effective rain intensity I n Coupled with the sediment storage efficiency TE of the reservoir in the watershed, as shown in figure 2, the reservoir sediment storage index RSTI of the coupled rainfall is constructed as follows:
among them, the mathematical expectation of RSTI is e (RSTI) ═ TE.
And step 3: establishing a plurality of linear regression and nonlinear regression models for simulating the sand transportation amount, wherein covariates of the plurality of linear regression and nonlinear regression models comprise effective rainfall A, effective rainfall intensity I, effective rainfall and effective rainfall intensity joint distribution F in the step 2 n The reservoir sand blocking efficiency TE and the reservoir sand blocking index RSTI; in the step, the RSTI is selected as a covariate when the influence of the coupling effect of rainfall and the reservoir on the sand transportation amount is considered; considering rainfallWhen the influence on the sand transportation quantity is caused, an effective rainfall A, an effective rainfall intensity I or an effective rainfall and effective rainfall intensity combined distribution Fn is selected as covariates; selecting the reservoir sand blocking efficiency TE as a covariate when considering the influence of the reservoir on the sand transporting amount; after the covariates are selected, a plurality of linear regression models and nonlinear regression models for simulating the sand transportation amount are established, wherein the plurality of linear regression models and the nonlinear regression models established in the embodiment are shown in table 1;
TABLE 1 Linear and non-Linear regression simulation of different covariates on Sand transport
Wherein a, b, c and d in Table 1 are model parameters, and t c The year of the comprehensive operation of the first large and medium reservoir in the drainage basin.
And 4, step 4: performing parameter estimation on a plurality of linear and nonlinear regression models, comparing simulation effects of different models, and selecting a model with the optimal simulation effect and the minimum residual error as a sand transportation quantity simulation estimation model; the specific method of the step is as follows:
performing parameter estimation on the plurality of models constructed in the step 3 by adopting a least square method, comparing correlation coefficients R and NSE values of different models, and selecting the model with the maximum correlation coefficient R and NSE values as an optimal model; wherein, the calculation formulas of R and NSE are respectively:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
the actual sand transporting amount in the t year;
is the simulated sand transportation amount in the t year;
and
the average values of the measured value and the analog value are respectively; and selecting the model with the maximum R and NSE values as the optimal model.
The present invention is further illustrated by the following specific examples.
The sediment in the Yangtze river mainly comes from an upstream area, the area is alternately influenced by east Asia monsoon and south Asia monsoon, the rainfall is abundant and strong, most of hydroenergy resources are concentrated in the upstream area, and conditions are provided for large-scale step reservoir development and application. Rainfall erosion and reservoir interception lead the sand transportation amount to be changed obviously, and the method has important influence on the ecological environment construction of a river basin, the healthy development of rivers, the sustainable social development and the like. Because the Wujiang river basin is abundant in rainfall and the development of the gradient reservoirs in the basin is more, the method for simulating and estimating the basin sediment transport amount provided by the invention takes the upstream branch of the Yangtze river, the Wujiang river basin as an example, as shown in FIG. 3, the reservoir sediment storage index RSTI simulation sediment transport amount of coupled rainfall is constructed, and the coupling effect of the rainfall and the reservoir on the basin sediment transport amount is analyzed, and the specific process is as follows:
firstly, selecting rainfall intensities (TL 2, 4, 6, 8, 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55mm/day) with different threshold levels to calculate corresponding rainfall capacity and rainfall intensity, selecting the rainfall capacity and the rainfall intensity which are most relevant to the sand transportation capacity as effective rainfall capacity A and effective rainfall intensity I respectively based on Pearson correlation, and constructing an effective rainfall capacity and effective rainfall intensity combined distribution F by adopting empirical Copula n Simultaneously calculating the sand blocking efficiency TE of the reservoir in the watershed and F n And coupling with TE to construct a reservoir sand blocking index RSTI of coupled rainfall. Consideration of rainfall and reservoir factorsThe co-group cooperation is used as covariates, a linear and nonlinear regression model is constructed to simulate the sand transporting quantity, and the selected covariates comprise: effective rainfall A, effective raininess I, effective rainfall and effective raininess combined distribution F n Reservoir sand blocking efficiency TE and reservoir sand blocking index RSTI of coupled rainfall. According to fig. 4, the pearson correlation coefficients r of 5 covariates and sand transportation are all greater than 0.4, and the corresponding p values are all less than 0.01, which shows that 5 covariates are all significantly related to sand transportation, wherein the factor A, I, F related to rainfall is n The factor TE and the rainfall-reservoir coupling factor RSTI related to the reservoir are in positive correlation with the sand transportation amount and in negative correlation with the sand transportation amount. Compared with other 4 covariates, the reservoir sand blocking index RSTI of the coupling rainfall constructed by the invention has the strongest correlation with annual sand transportation quantity of the Wujiang river basin.
Based on the selection of covariates, a linear regression model and a nonlinear regression model are constructed to simulate the sediment transport amount of the Wujiang river basin, according to the graph shown in FIG. 5, the established 8 models can better simulate the sediment transport amount, but the simulation effect of the linear regression model is not as good as that of the nonlinear regression model due to the occurrence of simulation abnormal values, the regression model with RSTI as the covariate has the optimal simulation effect compared with the regression models combined with other covariates, and the nonlinear regression model is superior to the linear regression model. And the results of fig. 6 show that the residual error (i.e. the difference between the measured sand transportation amount and the simulated sand transportation amount, Δ S) of the nonlinear regression model (M8) with RSTI as covariates is the smallest among 8 models, so in this embodiment, the nonlinear regression model (M8) is selected as the simulated estimation model of the annual sand transportation amount in the wujiang basin.
While the invention has been described with reference to a preferred embodiment, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes in form and detail may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention.
Claims (5)
1. A simulation estimation method for the sediment transport amount of a drainage basin is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1: collecting and sorting silt data of a drainage basin outlet station, daily rainfall data of the whole drainage basin, and control area and total storage capacity of large and medium-sized reservoirs built in the drainage basin;
step 2: identifying effective rainfall A and effective rain intensity I which play a key role in the sediment transport amount of the drainage basin, calculating the sediment blocking efficiency TE of the drainage basin reservoir, and establishing the joint distribution F of the effective rainfall A and the effective rain intensity I n Coupling the reservoir sand blocking efficiency with the river basin reservoir sand blocking efficiency TE to construct a reservoir sand blocking index RSTI of coupled rainfall;
and step 3: establishing a plurality of linear regression models and nonlinear regression models for simulating the sand transportation amount, wherein covariates of the linear regression models and the nonlinear regression models comprise the effective rainfall A, the effective rainfall I, the effective rainfall and the effective rainfall combined distribution F in the step 2 n The reservoir sand blocking efficiency TE and the reservoir sand blocking index RSTI;
and 4, step 4: and performing parameter estimation on the multiple linear and nonlinear regression models, comparing simulation effects of different models, and selecting a model with the optimal simulation effect and the minimum residual error as a sand transportation quantity simulation estimation model.
2. The method for simulating and estimating the amount of sediment transport in the drainage basin according to claim 1, wherein the specific process of the step 2 is as follows:
step 2.1: selecting rainfall TL of different threshold levels to calculate corresponding rainfall and rainfall intensity, and then selecting the rainfall and the rainfall intensity which are most relevant to the sand transportation amount based on Pearson correlation to be respectively used as effective rainfall A and effective rainfall I;
step 2.2: the influence of the effective rainfall and the effective rainfall intensity on the sand transportation amount is quantified by using the joint no-exceeding probability, and the joint distribution of the effective rainfall A and the effective rainfall intensity I is constructed based on the experience Copula:
in the formula, F n (a, I) is an empirical joint distribution function of effective rainfall A and effective rain intensity I; n is the sample size, A j A sample representing an effective rainfall, a given a certain rainfall observation; i is j Indicating effective rain strengthI is a given certain rain intensity observation value;
step 2.3: calculating the sand blocking efficiency of the basin reservoir according to the collected total storage capacity information of the large and medium sized reservoirs in the basin:
wherein N is the total number of large and medium reservoirs in the watershed, V i Is the total storage capacity of the ith reservoir,
the average runoff of a watershed outlet hydrological station for many years, wherein alpha is a correction coefficient related to the geographic position, physical characteristics, operation mode and the like of a reservoir;
step 2.4: combined distribution F of effective rainfall A and effective rain intensity I n Coupling with the sediment storage efficiency TE of the reservoir in the drainage basin, and constructing a reservoir sediment storage index RSTI of coupled rainfall as follows:
among them, the mathematical expectation of RSTI is f (RSTI) ═ TE.
3. The method for simulating and estimating the amount of sediment transport in the drainage basin according to claim 2, wherein the method for calculating the corresponding rainfall and rainfall intensity in the step 2.1 comprises the following steps: and summing the daily rainfall of the annual rainfall intensity greater than or equal to the given rainfall intensity TL to obtain the corresponding rainfall, and averaging the daily rainfall of the annual rainfall intensity greater than or equal to the given TL to obtain the corresponding rainfall intensity.
4. The method for simulating and estimating the sediment transport amount in the drainage basin according to claim 1, wherein in the step 3, RSTI is selected as a covariate when the influence of the coupling effect of rainfall and a reservoir on the sediment transport amount is considered; selecting effective rainfall A, effective rain intensity I or effective rain amount and effective rain intensity combined distribution Fn as covariates when considering the influence of rainfall on the sand transportation amount; and selecting the sand blocking efficiency TE of the reservoir as a covariate when considering the influence of the reservoir on the sand transporting amount.
5. The method for simulating and estimating the sediment transport amount of the drainage basin according to claim 1, wherein the concrete method in the step 4 comprises the following steps:
performing parameter estimation on the different models constructed in the step 3 by adopting a least square method, comparing correlation coefficients R and NSE values of the different models, and selecting the model with the maximum correlation coefficient R and NSE values as an optimal model; wherein, the calculation formulas of R and NSE are respectively:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
the actual sand transporting amount in the t year;
is the simulated sand transportation amount in the t year;
and
the average values of the measured values and the simulated values are respectively; and selecting the model with the maximum R and NSE values as the optimal model.
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| CN115688622A (en) * | 2022-10-26 | 2023-02-03 | 中国长江三峡集团有限公司 | Method for calculating sand amount in reservoir area |
| CN115688622B (en) * | 2022-10-26 | 2023-06-13 | 中国长江三峡集团有限公司 | Calculation method for amount of incoming sand between reservoir areas |
| CN117871423A (en) * | 2024-03-13 | 2024-04-12 | 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 | Remote sensing estimation method and system for sand transportation rate of small river basin |
| CN117871423B (en) * | 2024-03-13 | 2024-05-24 | 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 | Remote sensing estimation method and system for sand transportation rate of small river basin |
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