CN113222296A - Flood control scheduling method based on digital twin - Google Patents
Flood control scheduling method based on digital twin Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a flood control dispatching method based on a digital twin, which comprises the following steps of S1, constructing a digital twin of a flood control dispatching system; s2, tracking and updating the digital twin body of the flood control dispatching system to obtain a real-time synchronous digital twin body of the flood control dispatching system; s3, carrying out weather hydrological ensemble forecasting by using the weather model and the plurality of hydrological models, predicting a flood control dispatching process of the target reservoir in the future one week, analyzing and judging flood control situations according to a prediction result, and providing an adjusting scheme of the current dispatching rule of the reservoir based on the digital twin body of the real-time synchronous flood control dispatching system. The advantages are that: the method overcomes the defects that the existing flood control scheduling method cannot comprehensively reflect the real-time information of flood control scheduling, has short effective forecast period of weather hydrologic forecast and low forecast precision, can accurately provide information of the flood control scheduling process and dynamically evaluate flood control risks so as to smoothly carry out flood disaster defense work.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of flood control scheduling, in particular to a flood control scheduling method based on digital twin.
Background
Flood is a water flow phenomenon that the water volume of rivers, lakes and seas is rapidly increased or the water level is rapidly and violently increased due to natural factors such as rainstorm, rapid melting of ice and snow, storm surge and the like. Influenced by monsoon climate and landform, flood disasters occur frequently in summer in China, and serious threats are caused to the development of natural environment and national economy. Therefore, the planned control and dispatching of flood by utilizing the regulation and storage function and the control capability of the reservoir is always the key point of scientific research in related fields.
At present, reservoir flood control dispatching is mainly divided into the following methods, namely a conventional dispatching method and a forecast dispatching method. The conventional scheduling mode usually does not consider forecast information, and the actual reservoir water level or the actual warehousing flow or the combination of the actual reservoir water level and the actual warehousing flow is used as a judgment index of the reservoir discharge flow for scheduling according to the task of reservoir flood control scheduling, the flood control characteristic water level and the reservoir flood control mode. The scheduling mode does not fully utilize weather hydrological forecast information, and has less real-time information feedback to the dam body and the flood discharge gate, and the simulated scheduling is different from the actual situation. The forecast scheduling mode is to consider weather hydrologic forecast information, perform scheduling according to the forecasted flood magnitude, and perform pre-storage or pre-discharge scheduling by using the forecast information (including forecast warehousing flow, forecast accumulated net rainfall and the like) or the forecast information in combination with the actually measured reservoir water level as an index for controlling discharge of the reservoir. On one hand, when the meteorological hydrologic prediction is performed, in order to provide a stable initial boundary condition for the model, a long-time cyclic numerical integration operation is often required, and in addition, the model usually needs a large amount of operations to determine an optimal parameter scheme, so that the calculation efficiency is greatly influenced, and the effective prediction period of the meteorological hydrologic prediction is shortened to a certain extent; on the other hand, during hydrologic forecasting, it is usually difficult to obtain real-time operation information of numerous hydraulic projects on the current watershed in real time, which affects the calculation of the river convergence process in the hydrologic model, and further affects the accuracy of hydrologic forecasting. Both aspects bring certain influence on the accurate decision of flood control scheduling.
Disclosure of Invention
The present invention is directed to a flood control scheduling method based on digital twin, so as to solve the foregoing problems in the prior art.
In order to achieve the purpose, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows:
a flood control dispatching method based on digital twin is carried out aiming at a flood control dispatching system, wherein the flood control dispatching system comprises a dam main body of a target reservoir, a flood discharge gate, and an upstream river channel and a reservoir of a target reservoir control watershed; the flood control scheduling method comprises the following steps,
s1, constructing a digital twin body of the flood control dispatching system;
s2, tracking and updating the digital twin body of the flood control dispatching system to obtain a real-time synchronous digital twin body of the flood control dispatching system;
s3, carrying out weather hydrological ensemble forecasting by using the weather model and the plurality of hydrological models, predicting a flood control dispatching process of the target reservoir in the future one week, analyzing and judging flood control situations according to a prediction result, and providing an adjusting scheme of the current dispatching rule of the reservoir based on the digital twin body of the real-time synchronous flood control dispatching system.
Preferably, step S1 specifically includes the following steps,
s11, establishing a geometric model of the flood control dispatching system, wherein the geometric model comprises an elevation feature, an appearance feature, a size feature and a structural feature of the flood control dispatching system;
s12, establishing a physical model of the flood control dispatching system based on a geometric model of the flood control dispatching system, wherein the physical model of the flood control dispatching system comprises a river channel erosion and deposition physical module, a dam monitoring physical module, a gate electrical element physical module and a gate mechanical component physical module; the river channel erosion and deposition physical module comprises a river flow velocity parameter, a river water depth parameter and a water-sand ratio parameter; the dam monitoring physical module comprises dam body elastic modulus parameters and dam foundation deformation modulus parameters, the flood control dispatching system gate electrical element physical module comprises power supply system parameters, main control system configuration parameters, signal transmission parameters and automatic monitoring system parameters, and the flood control dispatching system gate mechanical component physical module comprises actuating mechanism parameters and connecting piece parameters;
s13, establishing an operation behavior model of the flood control dispatching system based on the physical model of the flood control dispatching system, wherein the operation behavior model comprises the current dispatching rule of the reservoir, an information transmission module and a gate operation flow module.
Preferably, step S2 specifically includes the following steps,
s21, reading system state data of the flood control dispatching system;
s22, adjusting and calculating the flood process based on the current reservoir dispatching rule in the operation behavior model by using the system state data acquired in real time to generate digital twin simulation data of the flood control dispatching system;
s23, collecting real-time monitoring information of the flood control dispatching system in real time by using the arranged silt, water level and flow monitoring devices;
s24, matching the real-time monitoring information into the digital twin body, uploading historical data of the digital twin body to a database, analyzing digital twin analog data, and updating the matched data in the digital twin body;
and S25, comparing the updated digital twin organism with the real-time reservoir flood control dispatching operation result, calculating the deviation of the two, and dynamically adjusting and correcting the internal parameters of the digital twin organism in real time by using an extended Kalman filtering algorithm, thereby obtaining the real-time synchronous digital twin organism of the flood control dispatching system.
Preferably, the system state data comprises silt monitoring system state data, water level monitoring system state data, flow monitoring system state data, flood discharge gate monitoring system state data and dam body monitoring system state data; the state data of the sediment monitoring system comprises state data of a piezoelectric ceramic induction sheet and a temperature sensor of the information acquisition device, a communication device and a power module; the state data of the water level monitoring system comprises a water level data monitoring and collecting module, a GPRS module, a transmission network and state data of a master control room; the state data of the flow monitoring system comprises state data of a communication server, WEB information monitoring management and sub-center centralized control management system; the state data of the flood discharge gate monitoring system comprises an industrial control computer, a programmable controller, an interface converter and power supply power state data.
Preferably, the real-time monitoring information of the flood control dispatching system comprises upstream river channel silt flushing monitoring information of a target reservoir, upstream river channel water level flow monitoring information of the target reservoir, upstream reservoir group monitoring information of the target reservoir, target reservoir water level monitoring information and target reservoir flood discharge flow information; the monitoring information of the erosion and deposition of the upstream river channel of the target reservoir comprises the silt content, the deposition condition and the change condition of the upstream river channel; the upstream river water level flow monitoring information of the target reservoir comprises upstream river water level real-time monitoring information and upstream river real-time flow monitoring information; the monitoring information of the upstream reservoir group of the target reservoir comprises real-time monitoring information of the warehousing flow of the upstream reservoir group, real-time monitoring information of the water level of the upstream reservoir group and real-time monitoring information of the discharge flow of the upstream reservoir group; the target reservoir water level monitoring information comprises target reservoir water level real-time monitoring information; the flood discharge flow information of the target reservoir comprises real-time monitoring information of the discharge flow of the target reservoir.
Preferably, step S3 specifically includes the following steps,
s31, performing cycle numerical integration simulation on the meteorological model and the hydrological model by using precipitation, flow and water level data of a target reservoir acquired in real time based on the real-time synchronous flood control dispatching system digital twin body to acquire a stable meteorological model and a stable hydrological model; continuously correcting parameters in the stable meteorological model and the hydrological model by using the rainfall, flow and water level data of the target reservoir acquired in real time to acquire the meteorological model and the hydrological model under the optimal parameter combination;
s32, driving a meteorological model and a plurality of hydrological models under the optimal parameter combination by using meteorological forecast product data of a future week, developing meteorological hydrological ensemble forecasting, and acquiring an average process, an upper limit process and a lower limit process of a warehousing runoff process of a target reservoir of the future week;
s33, analyzing the digital twin bodies of the real-time synchronous flood control dispatching system, extracting time domain characteristics, dynamic characteristics and discharge characteristics, and regulating and calculating the average process, the upper limit process and the lower limit process of the warehousing runoff process of the target reservoir one week and one hour after another by applying the current dispatching rule of the reservoir to obtain three corresponding flood control dispatching results;
s34, carrying out flood control situation study and judgment based on the three flood control scheduling results, and reminding decision-making personnel to consider and adjust the current scheduling rule of the reservoir if the highest flood level of the scheduling results exceeds the design flood level, so as to reduce flood control risks; and if the highest flood level of the scheduling result does not exceed the flood control high level, reminding decision-making personnel to further increase the flood limit water level for water storage and interest improvement.
Preferably, step S32 is specifically to collect weather forecast product data of a future week in the upstream range of the target reservoir control basin, input the weather forecast product data into a weather model, and perform hourly precipitation forecast of the future week; and inputting the rainfall forecast information hourly by hourly in the future week into a plurality of hydrological models, performing multi-model ensemble forecasting, and acquiring the average process, the upper limit process and the lower limit process of the warehousing runoff process hourly by weekly in the future of the target reservoir.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: 1. the method overcomes the defects that the existing flood control scheduling method cannot comprehensively reflect the real-time information of flood control scheduling, has short effective forecast period of weather hydrologic forecast and low forecast precision, can accurately provide information of the flood control scheduling process and dynamically evaluate flood control risks so as to smoothly carry out flood disaster defense work. 2. The constructed real-time digital twin bodies are more in line with the actual operation condition of the reservoir dam, and the flood control dispatching result is more reliable. 3. Through real-time data feedback, the scheduling result is analyzed, the existing scheduling rule is adjusted, and the comprehensive benefits of the reservoir can be better played compared with the existing scheduling mode. 4. By constructing the digital twin body at the upstream of the target reservoir control watershed, the real-time operation information of a plurality of hydraulic projects at the upstream of the target reservoir control watershed is acquired in real time, and the calculation precision of the confluence process in the hydrological model is improved. Meanwhile, the meteorological hydrological prediction model keeps a stable initial state and optimal parameter combination constantly, numerical simulation preheating and parameter calibration processing are not needed, direct hot start is achieved, the operation efficiency is greatly improved, the effective forecast period is prolonged, the forecast precision is improved, and further more accurate study and judgment can be provided for flood control scheduling decisions. 5. Real-time digital twin bodies at the upstream of a target reservoir control watershed are constructed, and the digital twin system can be quickly applied to other upstream target reservoirs on the basis, so that the combined flood control dispatching of reservoir groups is realized.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a flood control scheduling method in an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. It should be understood that the detailed description and specific examples, while indicating the invention, are intended for purposes of illustration only and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
As shown in fig. 1, in the present embodiment, a digital twin-based flood control scheduling method is provided, where the flood control scheduling method is performed for a flood control scheduling system, where the flood control scheduling system includes a dam body of a target reservoir, a flood discharge gate, and an upstream river channel and a reservoir of a target reservoir control drainage basin; the flood control scheduling method comprises the following steps,
s1, constructing a digital twin body of the flood control dispatching system;
s2, tracking and updating the digital twin body of the flood control dispatching system to obtain a real-time synchronous digital twin body of the flood control dispatching system;
s3, carrying out weather hydrological ensemble forecasting by using the weather model and the plurality of hydrological models, predicting a flood control dispatching process of the target reservoir in the future one week, analyzing and judging flood control situations according to a prediction result, and providing an adjusting scheme of the current dispatching rule of the reservoir based on the digital twin body of the real-time synchronous flood control dispatching system.
In this embodiment, referring to the above method processes, it can be seen that the scheduling method provided by the present invention mainly includes three parts, which are, respectively, the construction of the digital twin, the tracking and updating of the digital twin, the prediction of the flood control scheduling process, and the adjustment of the flood control scheduling rule; the following explains these three parts in detail.
Construction of one, digital twin body
This section corresponds to step S1, and step S1 specifically includes the following,
s11, establishing a geometric model of the flood control dispatching system, wherein the geometric model comprises an elevation feature, an appearance feature, a size feature and a structural feature of the flood control dispatching system;
the modeling object of the set model is a flood control dispatching system which comprises a dam main body of a target reservoir, a flood discharge gate of the target reservoir, an upstream river channel of a target reservoir control watershed and a reservoir; the modeling information of the geometric model comprises elevation features, appearance features, dimension features and structural features; the elevation characteristics of the target reservoir, the upstream river channel of the target reservoir and the reservoir can be extracted by utilizing data such as SRTM, ASTER and the like; river channel geometrical characteristics such as river width, river length and the like can be obtained through remote sensing image data and a GIS technology; the size and structural characteristics of the flood discharge gate can be acquired by underwater robot detection;
s12, establishing a physical model of the flood control dispatching system based on a geometric model of the flood control dispatching system, wherein the physical model of the flood control dispatching system comprises a river channel erosion and deposition physical module, a dam monitoring physical module, a gate electrical element physical module and a gate mechanical component physical module; the river channel erosion and deposition physical module comprises a river flow velocity parameter, a river water depth parameter and a water-sand ratio parameter; the dam monitoring physical module comprises dam body elastic modulus parameters and dam foundation deformation modulus parameters, the flood control dispatching system gate electrical element physical module comprises power supply system parameters, main control system configuration parameters, signal transmission parameters and automatic monitoring system parameters, and the flood control dispatching system gate mechanical component physical module comprises actuating mechanism parameters and connecting piece parameters;
river flow velocity parameters can be monitored by adopting a flow velocity meter, river water depth parameters can be acquired by detecting through an underwater robot, river sediment can be tested by adopting a sediment monitoring device, and water-sand ratio parameters can be acquired by combining river flow velocity, sediment amount and river geometrical characteristics. The elastic modulus parameter and the deformation modulus parameter of the dam body of the dam can be obtained by inversion by utilizing the displacement monitoring data of the dam prototype and combining a statistical model and a finite element method. And parameters of the power supply system, configuration parameters of the master control system, signal transmission parameters, parameters of the automatic monitoring system, parameters of the actuating mechanism and parameters of the connecting piece can be obtained through actual models of reservoir gate equipment.
S13, establishing an operation behavior model of the flood control dispatching system based on the physical model of the flood control dispatching system, wherein the operation behavior model comprises the current dispatching rule of the reservoir, an information transmission module and a gate operation flow module.
The operation behavior model comprises the current reservoir scheduling rule, an information transmission module and a gate operation flow module. On the basis of the construction of a geometric model and a physical model, according to geometric and physical characteristic parameters of a target reservoir and the current scheduling rule of the reservoir, the flood control scheduling process can be obtained, and information transmission and gate operation flow information are added, so that the situation of the flood process can be researched, judged and decided.
Second, tracking and updating of digital twin body
The core content of the part is as follows: and reading system state data of the flood control dispatching system, analyzing system logic of the flood control dispatching system by combining with the operation behavior model, simulating an operation flow and system response, and generating digital twin simulation data of the flood control dispatching system. On the basis, various data monitoring devices are used for acquiring data in real time, real-time monitoring information is matched with the digital twin, historical data of the digital twin is uploaded to a database, the matched data in the digital twin is updated through analysis of analog data of the digital twin, and internal parameters of the digital twin are adjusted to obtain the real-time synchronous digital twin.
The partial content corresponds to step S2, and step S2 specifically includes the following contents,
s21, reading system state data of the flood control dispatching system;
the system state data comprises silt monitoring system state data, water level monitoring system state data, flow monitoring system state data, flood discharge gate monitoring system state data and dam body monitoring system state data; the state data of the sediment monitoring system comprises state data of a piezoelectric ceramic induction sheet of the information acquisition device, a temperature sensor, a communication device and a power module, and is read once per hour; the state data of the water level monitoring system comprises a water level data monitoring and collecting module, a GPRS module, a transmission network and state data of a master control room, and is automatically read once every hour; the state data of the flow monitoring system comprises a communication server, WEB information monitoring management and branch center centralized control management system state data, and is automatically read once every hour; the state data of the flood discharge gate monitoring system comprises an industrial control computer, a programmable controller, an interface converter and power supply power state data, and is automatically read once every hour.
S22, adjusting and calculating the flood process based on the current reservoir dispatching rule in the operation behavior model by using the system state data acquired in real time to generate digital twin simulation data of the flood control dispatching system;
wherein, the regulating and calculating process needs to consider the water level constraint, the flow constraint and other constraint conditions of the target reservoir.
S23, collecting real-time monitoring information of the flood control dispatching system in real time by using the arranged silt, water level and flow monitoring devices;
the real-time monitoring information of the flood control dispatching system comprises target reservoir upstream river channel silt flushing monitoring information, target reservoir upstream river channel water level flow monitoring information, target reservoir upstream reservoir group monitoring information, target reservoir water level monitoring information and target reservoir flood discharge flow information; the method comprises the following steps that (1) silt flushing monitoring information of an upstream river channel of a target reservoir comprises silt content, sedimentation condition and river channel change condition of the upstream river channel, and is automatically collected every half hour; the upstream river water level flow monitoring information of the target reservoir comprises upstream river water level real-time monitoring information and upstream river real-time flow monitoring information, and is automatically collected every half hour; the monitoring information of the upstream reservoir group of the target reservoir comprises real-time monitoring information of the warehousing flow of the upstream reservoir group, real-time monitoring information of the water level of the upstream reservoir group and real-time monitoring information of the discharge flow of the upstream reservoir group, and is automatically collected once every half hour; the target reservoir water level monitoring information comprises target reservoir water level real-time monitoring information; the flood discharge flow information of the target reservoir comprises real-time monitoring information of the discharge flow of the target reservoir, and the information is automatically acquired every half hour.
And finally, carrying out rationality analysis on the acquired data information, and aiming at abnormal data shape analysis and correction, ensuring the reliable data quality of real-time monitoring.
S24, matching the real-time monitoring information into the digital twin body, uploading historical data of the digital twin body to a database, analyzing digital twin analog data, and updating the matched data in the digital twin body;
and S25, comparing the updated digital twin organism with the real-time reservoir flood control dispatching operation result, calculating the deviation of the two, and dynamically adjusting and correcting the internal parameters of the digital twin organism in real time by using an extended Kalman filtering algorithm, thereby obtaining the real-time synchronous digital twin organism of the flood control dispatching system.
Thirdly, flood control scheduling process prediction and flood control scheduling rule adjustment
The core content of the part is the basis of collecting weather forecast products, weather hydrological ensemble forecasting is carried out by utilizing a weather model and a plurality of hydrological models on the basis of stable operation of the weather model, the flood control scheduling process of one week in the future is predicted, the flood control situation is analyzed and researched according to the prediction result, and an adjusting scheme of a flood control scheduling rule is provided.
This section corresponds to step S3, and step S3 specifically includes the following,
s31, performing cycle numerical integration simulation on the meteorological model and the hydrological model by using precipitation, flow and water level data of a target reservoir acquired in real time based on the real-time synchronous flood control dispatching system digital twin body to acquire a stable meteorological model and a stable hydrological model; continuously correcting parameters in the stable meteorological model and the hydrological model by using the rainfall, flow and water level data of the target reservoir acquired in real time to acquire the meteorological model and the hydrological model under the optimal parameter combination;
and simultaneously, parameters in the meteorological model and the hydrological model can be continuously corrected according to the parameters obtained in real time, so that the parameter combination in the model is optimized, and the meteorological model and the hydrological model under the optimal parameter combination are obtained.
S32, driving a meteorological model and a plurality of hydrological models under the optimal parameter combination by using meteorological forecast product data of a future week, developing meteorological hydrological ensemble forecasting, and acquiring an average process, an upper limit process and a lower limit process of a warehousing runoff process of a target reservoir of the future week;
and collecting weather forecast product data of a future week in the upstream range of the target reservoir control basin under the condition that the weather model and the hydrological model reach stable and optimal states, and releasing the data in a rolling mode every 6 hours. Interpolation processing is carried out on the data, so that the space-time scale of the data is consistent with the upstream range of the target reservoir control watershed;
inputting the weather forecast product data into a weather model, and carrying out rainfall forecast on an hourly scale in the future one week; on the basis, the rainfall forecast information of each hour of the future week is input into the multiple hydrological models to carry out multi-model collective forecast, and the average process, the upper limit process and the lower limit process of the warehousing runoff process of each hour of the future week of the target reservoir are obtained.
S33, analyzing the digital twin bodies of the real-time synchronous flood control dispatching system, extracting time domain characteristics, dynamic characteristics and discharge characteristics, and regulating and calculating the average process, the upper limit process and the lower limit process of the warehousing runoff process of the target reservoir one week and one hour after another by applying the current dispatching rule of the reservoir to obtain three corresponding flood control dispatching results;
according to 3 warehousing runoff processes of one hour by one hour in the future, the current reservoir scheduling regulation of the target reservoir is adopted to adjust and calculate the flood control scheduling process of one week in the future, and as the meteorological data of one week in the future are published in a rolling mode every 6 hours, the flood control scheduling process of one week in the future of the target reservoir is also calculated in a rolling mode every 6 hours, flood control scheduling decision-making personnel can carry out flood control situation research and judgment according to the scheduling result, and can carry out adjustment again every 6 hours.
S34, carrying out flood control situation study and judgment based on the three flood control scheduling results, and reminding decision-making personnel to consider and adjust the current scheduling rule of the reservoir if the highest flood level of the scheduling results exceeds the design flood level, so as to reduce flood control risks; and if the highest flood level of the scheduling result does not exceed the flood control high level, reminding decision-making personnel to further increase the flood limit water level for water storage and interest improvement.
And 3 scheduling processes are integrated, so that the flood control risk rate and the variation range of the comprehensive benefits of the reservoir after the scheduling regulation is adjusted can be provided for decision-makers.
By adopting the technical scheme disclosed by the invention, the following beneficial effects are obtained:
the invention discloses a flood control scheduling method based on digital twin, which overcomes the defects that the existing flood control scheduling method cannot comprehensively reflect the real-time information of flood control scheduling, the effective forecast period of weather hydrologic forecast is short and the forecast precision is not high, can accurately provide information of a flood control scheduling process, and dynamically evaluates flood control risks so as to smoothly carry out flood disaster defense work. The constructed real-time digital twin bodies are more in line with the actual operation condition of the reservoir dam, and the flood control dispatching result is more reliable. Through real-time data feedback, the scheduling result is analyzed, the existing scheduling rule is adjusted, and the comprehensive benefits of the reservoir can be better played compared with the existing scheduling mode. By constructing the digital twin body at the upstream of the target reservoir control watershed, the real-time operation information of a plurality of hydraulic projects at the upstream of the target reservoir control watershed is acquired in real time, and the calculation precision of the confluence process in the hydrological model is improved. Meanwhile, the meteorological hydrological prediction model keeps a stable initial state and optimal parameter combination constantly, numerical simulation preheating and parameter calibration processing are not needed, direct hot start is achieved, the operation efficiency is greatly improved, the effective forecast period is prolonged, the forecast precision is improved, and further more accurate study and judgment can be provided for flood control scheduling decisions. Real-time digital twin bodies at the upstream of a target reservoir control watershed are constructed, and the digital twin system can be quickly applied to other upstream target reservoirs on the basis, so that the combined flood control dispatching of reservoir groups is realized.
The foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and it should be noted that, for those skilled in the art, various modifications and improvements can be made without departing from the principle of the present invention, and such modifications and improvements should also be considered within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. A flood control scheduling method based on digital twin is characterized in that: the flood control dispatching method is carried out aiming at a flood control dispatching system, wherein the flood control dispatching system comprises a dam main body of a target reservoir, a flood discharge gate, an upstream river channel of a target reservoir control watershed and a reservoir; the flood control scheduling method comprises the following steps,
s1, constructing a digital twin body of the flood control dispatching system;
s2, tracking and updating the digital twin body of the flood control dispatching system to obtain a real-time synchronous digital twin body of the flood control dispatching system;
s3, carrying out weather hydrological ensemble forecasting by using the weather model and the plurality of hydrological models, predicting a flood control dispatching process of the target reservoir in the future one week, analyzing and judging flood control situations according to a prediction result, and providing an adjusting scheme of the current dispatching rule of the reservoir based on the digital twin body of the real-time synchronous flood control dispatching system.
2. The digital twin-based flood control scheduling method according to claim 1, wherein: the step S1 specifically includes the following contents,
s11, establishing a geometric model of the flood control dispatching system, wherein the geometric model comprises an elevation feature, an appearance feature, a size feature and a structural feature of the flood control dispatching system;
s12, establishing a physical model of the flood control dispatching system based on a geometric model of the flood control dispatching system, wherein the physical model of the flood control dispatching system comprises a river channel erosion and deposition physical module, a dam monitoring physical module, a gate electrical element physical module and a gate mechanical component physical module; the river channel erosion and deposition physical module comprises a river flow velocity parameter, a river water depth parameter and a water-sand ratio parameter; the dam monitoring physical module comprises dam body elastic modulus parameters and dam foundation deformation modulus parameters, the flood control dispatching system gate electrical element physical module comprises power supply system parameters, main control system configuration parameters, signal transmission parameters and automatic monitoring system parameters, and the flood control dispatching system gate mechanical component physical module comprises actuating mechanism parameters and connecting piece parameters;
s13, establishing an operation behavior model of the flood control dispatching system based on the physical model of the flood control dispatching system, wherein the operation behavior model comprises the current dispatching rule of the reservoir, an information transmission module and a gate operation flow module.
3. The digital twin-based flood control scheduling method according to claim 2, wherein: the step S2 specifically includes the following contents,
s21, reading system state data of the flood control dispatching system;
s22, adjusting and calculating the flood process based on the current reservoir dispatching rule in the operation behavior model by using the system state data acquired in real time to generate digital twin simulation data of the flood control dispatching system;
s23, collecting real-time monitoring information of the flood control dispatching system in real time by using the arranged silt, water level and flow monitoring devices;
s24, matching the real-time monitoring information into the digital twin body, uploading historical data of the digital twin body to a database, analyzing digital twin analog data, and updating the matched data in the digital twin body;
and S25, comparing the updated digital twin organism with the real-time reservoir flood control dispatching operation result, calculating the deviation of the two, and dynamically adjusting and correcting the internal parameters of the digital twin organism in real time by using an extended Kalman filtering algorithm, thereby obtaining the real-time synchronous digital twin organism of the flood control dispatching system.
4. The digital twin-based flood control scheduling method according to claim 3, wherein: the system state data comprises silt monitoring system state data, water level monitoring system state data, flow monitoring system state data, flood discharge gate monitoring system state data and dam body monitoring system state data; the state data of the sediment monitoring system comprises state data of a piezoelectric ceramic induction sheet and a temperature sensor of the information acquisition device, a communication device and a power module; the state data of the water level monitoring system comprises a water level data monitoring and collecting module, a GPRS module, a transmission network and state data of a master control room; the state data of the flow monitoring system comprises state data of a communication server, WEB information monitoring management and sub-center centralized control management system; the state data of the flood discharge gate monitoring system comprises an industrial control computer, a programmable controller, an interface converter and power supply power state data.
5. The digital twin-based flood control scheduling method according to claim 3, wherein: the real-time monitoring information of the flood control dispatching system comprises target reservoir upstream river channel silt flushing monitoring information, target reservoir upstream river channel water level flow monitoring information, target reservoir upstream reservoir group monitoring information, target reservoir water level monitoring information and target reservoir flood discharge flow information; the monitoring information of the erosion and deposition of the upstream river channel of the target reservoir comprises the silt content, the deposition condition and the change condition of the upstream river channel; the upstream river water level flow monitoring information of the target reservoir comprises upstream river water level real-time monitoring information and upstream river real-time flow monitoring information; the monitoring information of the upstream reservoir group of the target reservoir comprises real-time monitoring information of the warehousing flow of the upstream reservoir group, real-time monitoring information of the water level of the upstream reservoir group and real-time monitoring information of the discharge flow of the upstream reservoir group; the target reservoir water level monitoring information comprises target reservoir water level real-time monitoring information; the flood discharge flow information of the target reservoir comprises real-time monitoring information of the discharge flow of the target reservoir.
6. The digital twin-based flood control scheduling method according to claim 3, wherein: the step S3 specifically includes the following contents,
s31, performing cycle numerical integration simulation on the meteorological model and the hydrological model by using precipitation, flow and water level data of a target reservoir acquired in real time based on the real-time synchronous flood control dispatching system digital twin body to acquire a stable meteorological model and a stable hydrological model; continuously correcting parameters in the stable meteorological model and the hydrological model by using the rainfall, flow and water level data of the target reservoir acquired in real time to acquire the meteorological model and the hydrological model under the optimal parameter combination;
s32, driving a meteorological model and a plurality of hydrological models under the optimal parameter combination by using meteorological forecast product data of a future week, developing meteorological hydrological ensemble forecasting, and acquiring an average process, an upper limit process and a lower limit process of a warehousing runoff process of a target reservoir of the future week;
s33, analyzing the digital twin bodies of the real-time synchronous flood control dispatching system, extracting time domain characteristics, dynamic characteristics and discharge characteristics, and regulating and calculating the average process, the upper limit process and the lower limit process of the warehousing runoff process of the target reservoir one week and one hour after another by applying the current dispatching rule of the reservoir to obtain three corresponding flood control dispatching results;
s34, carrying out flood control situation study and judgment based on the three flood control scheduling results, and reminding decision-making personnel to consider and adjust the current scheduling rule of the reservoir if the highest flood level of the scheduling results exceeds the design flood level, so as to reduce flood control risks; and if the highest flood level of the scheduling result does not exceed the flood control high level, reminding decision-making personnel to further increase the flood limit water level for water storage and interest improvement.
7. The digital twin-based flood control scheduling method according to claim 6, wherein: step S32 is specifically that weather forecast product data of a future week in the upstream range of the target reservoir control basin are collected and input into a weather model to carry out precipitation forecast of an hourly scale in the future week; and inputting the rainfall forecast information hourly by hourly in the future week into a plurality of hydrological models, performing multi-model ensemble forecasting, and acquiring the average process, the upper limit process and the lower limit process of the warehousing runoff process hourly by weekly in the future of the target reservoir.
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