CN104462774A - Urban road and low-lying area water accumulation forecasting method based on water tank model - Google Patents

Urban road and low-lying area water accumulation forecasting method based on water tank model Download PDF

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CN104462774A
CN104462774A CN201410631659.7A CN201410631659A CN104462774A CN 104462774 A CN104462774 A CN 104462774A CN 201410631659 A CN201410631659 A CN 201410631659A CN 104462774 A CN104462774 A CN 104462774A
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forecast
forecasting
water
period
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李兵
胡波
于博文
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HEFEI SANLI AUTOMATION ENGINEERING Co Ltd
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HEFEI SANLI AUTOMATION ENGINEERING Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention provides an urban road and low-lying area water accumulation forecasting method based on a water tank model. The method comprises the following steps that (1) an urban hydrological forecasting boundary is determined; (2) the impervious area percentage of an underlying surface in a forecasting region is calculated; (3) rainwater is collected; (4) forecasting time periods are determined; (5) water accumulation forecasting is conduced through the water tank model. According to the method, rainfall is generalized into inflow water of a water tank through the water tank model, drainage is generalized into outflow water of the water tank, and the water accumulation volume of the water tank in each time period is calculated and converted into a water accumulation depth, so that accurate and effective urban road and low-lying area water accumulation forecasting is achieved, and a thought is provided for an urban area rainfall flood simulation study; the application range is wide, operation is simple, the forecasting speed is high, the accuracy is high, and the method has high promotional value.

Description

Based on urban road and the low laying areas ponding forecasting procedure of tank model
Technical field
The present invention relates to Urban Hydrologic forecasting technique field, especially downtown roads and low laying areas depth of accumulated water forecasting model foundation and realize automatic forecasting early warning.
Background technology
The development of urbanization, changes topography and geomorphology and the free drainage system of original region directly or indirectly.The underground pipe network that sewerage system has been thickened by original earth's surface irrigation canals and ditches, rivers and lakes.Drainage pipeline networks scarce capacity will cause road surface and lowered zones ponding, very large on the impact such as traffic, production, life, and it is densely populated to add Inner city, and building is concentrated, industry and commerce and traffic flourishing, the loss meeting with heavy rain is quite serious.
By analyzing the historical summaries such as city rainfall over the years, road water level monitoring data, Water Year Book, we find that city rainfall and road ponding have cause-effect relationship closely, and have followed the rule rising and disappear.After rainfall, the speed of road ponding is quickly, and ponding process and rainfall intensity, distribution of rainfall, the artificial comparatively Important Relations that drains flooded fields.
The process that conventional forecasting model has runoff yield and confluxes, these produce Confluence Model and are generally applicable to basin type forecast.Be not suitable for the downtown roads that almost can ignore Process of Confluence and low laying areas ponding forecasts.As the heavy rain hydrologic forecast model SWMM of more famous forecast urban waterlogging, but still lack very much for the utility model of region and city reality.
Summary of the invention
The invention provides a kind of urban road based on tank model and low laying areas ponding forecasting procedure.
For solving the problems of the technologies described above, the present invention adopts following technical scheme:
Based on urban road and the low laying areas ponding forecasting procedure of tank model, comprise the steps:
1) Urban Hydrologic forecast border is determined: forecast boundary line divides according to the layout of city river and underdrainage pipe network to determine forecast area, and measure the total area S of forecast area 0;
2) underlying surface Permeable stratum area number percent η in CALCULATING PREDICTION region 0: according to incity, city actual measurement current relief map or satellite remote sensing figure and urban land use functional planning figure, be multiple plot by underlying surface according to Type division, and measure its area S respectively 1, S 2s n, the Permeable stratum area number percent η in heterogeneity plot is obtained by tabling look-up 1, η 2η n, underlying surface Permeable stratum area number percent η in forecast area 0computing formula as follows,
η 0 = S 1 × η 1 + S 2 × η 2 + · · · + S n × η n S 0 ;
Underlying surface Permeable stratum area number percent η in described forecast area 0need according to remote sensing figure, planning plot ratio and Green Space Index, and carry out adjustment correction in conjunction with soil moisture content, bury of groundwater and raininess.Gather the water level at road section hydrometric station in forecast area, draw the stage hydrograph in the period, the fluctuation trend in conjunction with this stage hydrograph is revised forecast result.Described plot comprises building district, high school district, factory district, cottage area, warehouse area, river course, lake and greenery patches district.
3) rain collection: use remote gauged rainfall data, after single station quantity of precipitation gathers, asks forecast area rainfall by arithmetic mean method or Thiessen polygon method;
4) forecasting period is determined: according to size, forecast area is at least marked off three forecasting periods.Described forecasting period choose with reference to following standard: forecast area area≤10km 2, forecasting period is long gets 10 minutes; 10km 2< forecast area area≤20km 2, forecasting period is long gets 20 minutes; 20km 2< forecast area area≤80km 2, forecasting period is long gets 30 minutes; 80km 2< forecast area area≤150km 2, forecasting period is long gets 60 minutes.
5) utilize tank model to carry out ponding forecast, specifically comprise the steps:
51) determine to forecast website;
52) adopt tank model that rainfall is generalized as water tank water intake amount, water discharge is generalized as water tank aquifer yield;
53) forecasting period is chosen, by the rainfall data period;
54) calculate each forecasting period rainfall deduct water discharge after effective precipitation, and calculate period accumulation effective precipitation.
Described period accumulation effective precipitation P long-pending(n+1) computing formula is as follows:
P long-pending(n+1)=P long-pending(n)+P onlyn (), if P long-pending(n+1) <0, then P long-pending(n+1)=0;
Wherein P long-pendingn () is upper period accumulation effective precipitation, P onlyn () is this period effective precipitation.
55) according to period accumulation effective precipitation and depth of accumulated water relation table, check in each period accumulation depth of accumulated water, and draw period accumulation depth of accumulated water sequence;
56) according to period accumulation depth of accumulated water sequential value, export forecast result eigenwert, realize ponding forecast.
Described forecast result eigenwert comprise depth of water peak value, peak current between and estimate regression time, wherein depth of water peak value is the maximum water depth value of period accumulation depth of accumulated water sequential value, be the time that this depth of water peak value is corresponding between peak is current, expectation regression time is the last depth of water of period accumulation depth of accumulated water sequential value is the time of zero.
From above technical scheme, the present invention adopts tank model that rainfall is generalized as water tank water intake, draining is generalized as water tank water outlet, by calculating each period water tank water accumulating volume and being converted into ponding deeply, realize accurate and effective urban road and the forecast of low laying areas ponding, for the modeling effort of city rain flood provides thinking, applied widely, simple to operate, forecast speed is fast, precision is high, has good promotional value.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of urban road of the present invention and low laying areas ponding forecasting procedure;
Fig. 2 is the process flow diagram that tank model of the present invention carries out ponding forecast;
Fig. 3 is accumulation effective precipitation and depth of accumulated water relation coordinate diagram in the present invention.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, a kind of preferred implementation of the present invention is described in detail.
By the analysis to historical summary, after finding rainfall, produce the speed of road ponding quickly, and the similar water tank retaining of ponding process, tank model is generalized as water tank water intake rainfall, and draining is generalized as water tank water outlet.Propose a kind of urban road based on tank model and low laying areas ponding according to the present invention of this principle to forecast and invent.
The present invention, by calculating each period water tank water accumulating volume and being converted into depth of accumulated water, realizes ponding forecast.Therefore, this model needs preparation two class parameter before forecast.One class is drainability, the depth of runoff that namely drains flooded fields (unit is mm); One class is accumulation effective precipitation (unit is mm) and (unit is corresponding relation coordinate diagram (shown in accompanying drawing 3) m) to depth of accumulated water, the ponding in wherein accumulation effective precipitation and water tank.Collect this two classes parameter, need arrange historical summary and analyze, and according to real-time prediction process, with practical experience correction.
As shown in Figure 1, the present invention includes following steps:
100, Urban Hydrologic forecast border is determined: forecast boundary line divides according to the layout of city river and underdrainage pipe network to determine forecast area, and measure the total area S of forecast area 0.
The boundary line in nature basin divides according to landform, landforms and level line on topomap, and in urban area, forecast boundary line divides according to the situation of landform and urban drainage pipe network.Sewerage system is made up of pipe network and the draining network of waterways, and the storm flood that urban size produces first enters pipe network usually, then enters the network of waterways, and the layout with reference to city river and underdrainage pipe network divides forecast area.
Will confirm the underlying surface situation in this forecast area after dividing forecast area, the particularly importantly determination of Permeable stratum area, it is very large to rain flood process influence.
200, underlying surface Permeable stratum area number percent η in CALCULATING PREDICTION region 0: according to incity, city actual measurement current relief map or satellite remote sensing figure and urban land use functional planning figure, be multiple plot by underlying surface according to Type division, and measure its area S respectively 1, S 2s n, the Permeable stratum area number percent η in heterogeneity plot is obtained by tabling look-up 1, η 2η n, underlying surface Permeable stratum area number percent η in forecast area 0computing formula as follows:
&eta; 0 = S 1 &times; &eta; 1 + S 2 &times; &eta; 2 + &CenterDot; &CenterDot; &CenterDot; + S n &times; &eta; n S 0 ;
Described plot comprises building district, high school district, factory district, cottage area, warehouse area, river course, lake and greenery patches district, the Permeable stratum area number percent η in dissimilar plot nas shown in table 1.
Table 1 urban area Permeable stratum area number percent table
The Permeable stratum area number percent in above typical plot, the data obtained by factual survey, when the concrete hydrology calculates, also according to actual conditions and remote sensing figure, suitably adjustment such as planning plot ratio, Green Space Index etc., specifically adjustment correction can be carried out in conjunction with soil moisture content, bury of groundwater and raininess.
300, rain collection:
Due to flood peak, city current between short, rain flood process completes very soon, and therefore need to obtain rainfall data as early as possible, rainfall data uses remote gauged rainfall data, after single station quantity of precipitation gathers, asks forecast area rainfall by arithmetic mean method or Thiessen polygon method.
Water level, data on flows can also be used for local inflow, forecast reference and correction, gather the water level at road section hydrometric station in forecast area, draw the stage hydrograph in the period, the fluctuation trend in conjunction with this stage hydrograph is revised forecast result.
400, forecasting period is determined: according to size, forecast area is at least marked off three forecasting periods.Described forecasting period choose with reference to following standard: forecast area area≤10km 2, forecasting period is long gets 10 minutes; 10km 2< forecast area area≤20km 2, forecasting period is long gets 20 minutes; 20km 2< forecast area area≤80km 2, forecasting period is long gets 30 minutes; 80km 2< forecast area area≤150km 2, forecasting period is long gets 60 minutes.
500, tank model is utilized to carry out ponding forecast, by reference to the accompanying drawings 2, specifically comprise the steps:
501: determine to forecast website;
502: adopt tank model that rainfall is generalized as water tank water intake amount, water discharge is generalized as water tank aquifer yield, as 1 hour rainfall 30mm, 2 hours rainfall 50mm etc.;
503: choose forecasting period, computer disposal makes the rainfall data period;
504: calculate each forecasting period rainfall deduct water discharge after effective precipitation, can be negative value, and calculate period accumulation effective precipitation.
Described period accumulation effective precipitation P long-pending(n+1) computing formula is as follows:
P long-pending(n+1)=P long-pending(n)+P onlyn (), if P long-pending(n+1) <0, then P long-pending(n+1)=0 (when result is less than 0, counting 0, because excess surface water can not be negative);
Wherein P long-pendingn () is upper period accumulation effective precipitation, P onlyn () is this period effective precipitation.
505: according to period accumulation effective precipitation and depth of accumulated water relation coordinate diagram (shown in accompanying drawing 3), check in each period accumulation depth of accumulated water, and draw period accumulation depth of accumulated water sequence;
506: according to period accumulation depth of accumulated water sequential value, export forecast result eigenwert, realize ponding forecast.
Described forecast result eigenwert comprise depth of water peak value, peak current between and estimate regression time, wherein depth of water peak value is the maximum water depth value of period accumulation depth of accumulated water sequential value, be the time that this depth of water peak value is corresponding between peak is current, expectation regression time is the last depth of water of period accumulation depth of accumulated water sequential value is the time of zero.
The above embodiment is only be described the preferred embodiment of the present invention; not scope of the present invention is limited; under not departing from the present invention and designing the prerequisite of spirit; the various distortion that those of ordinary skill in the art make technical scheme of the present invention and improvement, all should fall in protection domain that claims of the present invention determine.

Claims (7)

1., based on urban road and the low laying areas ponding forecasting procedure of tank model, it is characterized in that, comprise the steps:
1) Urban Hydrologic forecast border is determined: forecast boundary line divides according to the layout of city river and underdrainage pipe network to determine forecast area, and measure the total area S of forecast area 0;
2) underlying surface Permeable stratum area number percent η in CALCULATING PREDICTION region 0: according to incity, city actual measurement current relief map or satellite remote sensing figure and urban land use functional planning figure, be multiple plot by underlying surface according to Type division, and measure its area S respectively 1, S 2s n, the Permeable stratum area number percent η in heterogeneity plot is obtained by tabling look-up 1, η 2η n, underlying surface Permeable stratum area number percent η in forecast area 0computing formula as follows,
&eta; 0 = S 1 &times; &eta; 1 + S 2 &times; &eta; 2 + &CenterDot; &CenterDot; &CenterDot; + S n &times; &eta; n S 0 ;
3) rain collection: use remote gauged rainfall data, after single station quantity of precipitation gathers, asks forecast area rainfall by arithmetic mean method or Thiessen polygon method;
4) forecasting period is determined: according to size, forecast area is at least marked off three forecasting periods;
5) utilize tank model to carry out ponding forecast, specifically comprise the steps:
51) determine to forecast website;
52) adopt tank model that rainfall is generalized as water tank water intake amount, water discharge is generalized as water tank aquifer yield;
53) forecasting period is chosen, by the rainfall data period;
54) calculate each forecasting period rainfall deduct water discharge after effective precipitation, and calculate period accumulation effective precipitation;
55) according to period accumulation effective precipitation and depth of accumulated water relation table, check in each period accumulation depth of accumulated water, and draw period accumulation depth of accumulated water sequence;
56) according to period accumulation depth of accumulated water sequential value, export forecast result eigenwert, realize ponding forecast.
2. ponding forecasting procedure according to claim 1, is characterized in that, step 2) in, underlying surface Permeable stratum area number percent η in described forecast area 0need according to remote sensing figure, planning plot ratio and Green Space Index, and carry out adjustment correction in conjunction with soil moisture content, bury of groundwater and raininess.
3. ponding forecasting procedure according to claim 1, is characterized in that, step 2) in, described plot comprises building district, high school district, factory district, cottage area, warehouse area, river course, lake and greenery patches district.
4. ponding forecasting procedure according to claim 1, is characterized in that, gathers the water level at road section hydrometric station in forecast area, and draw the stage hydrograph in the period, the fluctuation trend in conjunction with this stage hydrograph is revised forecast result.
5. ponding forecasting procedure according to claim 1, is characterized in that, step 4) in, described forecasting period choose with reference to following standard: forecast area area≤10km 2, forecasting period is long gets 10 minutes; 10km 2< forecast area area≤20km 2, forecasting period is long gets 20 minutes; 20km 2< forecast area area≤80km 2, forecasting period is long gets 30 minutes; 80km 2< forecast area area≤150km 2, forecasting period is long gets 60 minutes.
6. ponding forecasting procedure according to claim 1, is characterized in that, step 54) in, described period accumulation effective precipitation P long-pending(n+1) computing formula is as follows,
P long-pending(n+1)=P long-pending(n)+P onlyn (), if P long-pending(n+1) <0, then P long-pending(n+1)=0;
Wherein P long-pendingn () is upper period accumulation effective precipitation, P onlyn () is this period effective precipitation.
7. ponding forecasting procedure according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, step 56) in, described forecast result eigenwert comprise depth of water peak value, peak current between and estimate regression time, wherein depth of water peak value is the maximum water depth value of period accumulation depth of accumulated water sequential value, be the time that this depth of water peak value is corresponding between peak is current, expectation regression time is the last depth of water of period accumulation depth of accumulated water sequential value is the time of zero.
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CN105260607A (en) * 2015-10-20 2016-01-20 华中科技大学 Serial connection and parallel connection coupling multi-model hydrological forecasting method
CN105550803A (en) * 2015-12-08 2016-05-04 哈尔滨航天恒星数据系统科技有限公司 Urban water-logging analysis method and urban water-logging analysis system
CN106709608A (en) * 2017-01-09 2017-05-24 泰华智慧产业集团股份有限公司 Method and system for forecasting degree of influence of ponding on areas in city
CN107220496A (en) * 2017-05-26 2017-09-29 上海市气象灾害防御技术中心 A kind of urban rainstorm waterlogging assesses modeling method
CN108182543A (en) * 2018-01-17 2018-06-19 福建四创软件有限公司 One kind becomes more meticulous grid waterlogging water logging forecasting procedure
CN108491653A (en) * 2018-03-29 2018-09-04 中国科学院地球化学研究所 A kind of karst rainfall erosivity computational methods
CN110160550A (en) * 2019-04-29 2019-08-23 东南大学 A kind of city route bootstrap technique based on the prediction of road ponding
CN113781813A (en) * 2021-10-22 2021-12-10 北京声智科技有限公司 Early warning method, system, device and electronic equipment
CN114808823A (en) * 2022-04-28 2022-07-29 南通银烛节能技术服务有限公司 Intelligent control method and system for quickly cleaning accumulated liquid on road surface of sweeper
CN114814995A (en) * 2022-03-31 2022-07-29 武汉达梦数据技术有限公司 Early warning method and device for urban rainfall abnormality

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Cited By (14)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN105260607A (en) * 2015-10-20 2016-01-20 华中科技大学 Serial connection and parallel connection coupling multi-model hydrological forecasting method
CN105550803A (en) * 2015-12-08 2016-05-04 哈尔滨航天恒星数据系统科技有限公司 Urban water-logging analysis method and urban water-logging analysis system
CN106709608A (en) * 2017-01-09 2017-05-24 泰华智慧产业集团股份有限公司 Method and system for forecasting degree of influence of ponding on areas in city
CN107220496A (en) * 2017-05-26 2017-09-29 上海市气象灾害防御技术中心 A kind of urban rainstorm waterlogging assesses modeling method
CN107220496B (en) * 2017-05-26 2020-06-12 上海市气象灾害防御技术中心 Urban rainstorm waterlogging assessment modeling method
CN108182543A (en) * 2018-01-17 2018-06-19 福建四创软件有限公司 One kind becomes more meticulous grid waterlogging water logging forecasting procedure
CN108491653B (en) * 2018-03-29 2020-07-07 中国科学院地球化学研究所 Karst region rainfall erosion force calculation method
CN108491653A (en) * 2018-03-29 2018-09-04 中国科学院地球化学研究所 A kind of karst rainfall erosivity computational methods
CN110160550A (en) * 2019-04-29 2019-08-23 东南大学 A kind of city route bootstrap technique based on the prediction of road ponding
CN110160550B (en) * 2019-04-29 2022-07-08 东南大学 Urban route guiding method based on road ponding prediction
CN113781813A (en) * 2021-10-22 2021-12-10 北京声智科技有限公司 Early warning method, system, device and electronic equipment
CN114814995A (en) * 2022-03-31 2022-07-29 武汉达梦数据技术有限公司 Early warning method and device for urban rainfall abnormality
CN114814995B (en) * 2022-03-31 2022-11-22 武汉达梦数据技术有限公司 Urban waterlogging early warning method and device
CN114808823A (en) * 2022-04-28 2022-07-29 南通银烛节能技术服务有限公司 Intelligent control method and system for quickly cleaning accumulated liquid on road surface of sweeper

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