CN107808237A - A kind of parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk Analytic Calculation Method - Google Patents
A kind of parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk Analytic Calculation Method Download PDFInfo
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- CN107808237A CN107808237A CN201710939063.7A CN201710939063A CN107808237A CN 107808237 A CN107808237 A CN 107808237A CN 201710939063 A CN201710939063 A CN 201710939063A CN 107808237 A CN107808237 A CN 107808237A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk Analytic Calculation Method, the described method comprises the following steps：(1) mathematic(al) representation of uncertain factor is established, draws the marginal distribution function of uncertain factor；(2) Copula functions are based on, solve the joint probability density distribution function of multidimensional uncertain factor；(3) multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk model is established, parses each moment multi-reservoir flood control operation risk；(4) calculating of multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk.The present invention considers influence of the correlation to multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk between uncertain factor, has tried to achieve the analytic sensitivity of each moment multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk, and computational efficiency is high, is easily achieved, and has stronger versatility.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to reservoir regulation for flood control risk assessment, and in particular to a kind of parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk parsing
Computational methods.
Background technology
Multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood is one of important technical of Flood Prevention mitigation, can pass through less input
To improve the benefit of flood control works.But during existing multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood, many uncertainties be present
Factor, including the uncertain of multi-reservoir reservoir inflow process, multi-reservoir out of flow procedure uncertain, district flood forecasting process
Not true property, these uncertain factors result in the uncertain of the public flood control point combined flow process in downstream, give flood decision band
Influence is necessarily carried out, and there is certain risk.Therefore, the risk assessment of multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood has important
Art meaning and practical value, its main target are prevented to the uncertain factor of multi-reservoir Flood Control Dispatch process and its to multi-reservoir
The risk that big vast scheduling result is brought carries out qualitatively analysis and quantitative calculating.
At present, existing multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood methods of risk assessment is primarily present following deficiency：(1) it is difficult to obtain
The joint probability density distribution function of multidimensional uncertain factor；(2) method of stochastic simulation calculates multi-reservoir Real time Flood and adjusted
Risk is spent, computational efficiency is not high, versatility is inadequate, needs to model again for different systems.
The content of the invention
Goal of the invention：For above-mentioned the deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention provides a kind of parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk
Analytic Calculation Method, assess risk problem caused by uncertain factor in the parsing of parallel reservoir group Real time Flood.
Technical scheme：A kind of parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk Analytic Calculation Method, comprises the following steps：
(1) mathematic(al) representation of uncertain factor is established, solves the marginal distribution function of uncertain factor；
(2) Copula functions are based on, solve the joint probability density distribution function of multidimensional uncertain factor；
(3) multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk model is established, parses each moment multi-reservoir flood control operation risk；
(4) calculating of multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk.
Further, uncertain factor described in step (1) include multi-reservoir reservoir inflow, multi-reservoir storage outflow and
The uncertainty of district flood forecast.
Further, the step (2) comprises the following steps：
(2.1) H (q are defined1(t),q2(t),q3(t)) for reservoir 1 go out to flow random process, reservoir 2 goes out to flow random process,
Go out to flow the joint probability distribution function of random process with district flood, calculation formula is as follows：
H(q1(t),q2(t),q3(t))=C (F (q1(t)),F(q2(t)),F(q3(t))) (1)
In formula, q1(t) it is the storage outflow random process of t reservoir 1；q2(t) for t reservoir 2 storage outflow with
Machine process；q3(t) it is the district flood random process of t downstream flood control control section；F(q1(t))、F(q2(t))、F(q3
(t) it is respectively) that uncertain factor-reservoir 1 goes out to flow random process q1(t), reservoir 2 goes out to flow random process q2And section (t)
Flood random process q3(t) marginal distribution function；C is Copula functions；
(2.2) h (q are defined1(t),q2(t),q3(t)) for reservoir 1 go out to flow random process, reservoir 2 goes out to flow random process,
It is as follows with the joint probability density function of district flood random process, calculation formula：
In formula, f (qi(t)) it is uncertain factor qi(t), i=1,2,3 probability density function, c (F (q1(t)),F
(q2(t)),F(q3(t)) it is Copula functions C (F (q1(t)),F(q2(t)),F(q3(t) probability density function).
Further, the Copula functions described in step (2) include 3 kinds of calculation formula, and expression formula is as follows：
Wherein, α (t) is the parameter of Copula functions；
Further, the step (3) comprises the following steps that：
Definition multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk Risk (t) is the public flood control point combined flow process of t more than anti-
The probability of big vast control section safe traffic threshold value, by the uncertain factor in Copula functional links step (1), obtain water
Storehouse group Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk Risk (t) calculation formula is：
In formula, Risk (t) represents t reservoir group system Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk；Q (t) represents the public flood control of t
The combined flow process of point；QC(t) the safe traffic threshold value of t flood control control section is represented, can use the peace of public flood control point
Full discharge；Ω0={ q1(t)+q2(t)+q3(t) ＞ QC(t) }, Ω1For corresponding to Ω0Integral Transformation section.
Further, the step (4) comprises the following steps：
(4.1) service data and real-time prediction reservoir inflow average process and error distribution, section flood of multi-reservoir are obtained
Water forecasts average process and error distribution；
(4.2) reservoir routing is carried out according to reservoir regulation for flood control rule, calculates reservoir storage outflow random process；
(4.3) selection Copula functions go out to flow random process q as uncertain factor-reservoir 11(t), reservoir 2 goes out
Flow random process q2And district flood random process q (t)3(t) joint probability distribution function.
(4.4) according to the Copula functions of selection, each moment multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk is calculated.
Beneficial effect：Compared with prior art, its remarkable result is the present invention：1st, consider between uncertain factor
Influence of the correlation to multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk, multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood methods of risk assessment Consideration is more
Add comprehensively；2nd, the analytic sensitivity of each moment multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk is established by Copula functions；3rd, solve
Analysis computational methods computational efficiency is high, is easily achieved, and has stronger versatility.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the inventive method；
Fig. 2 is parallel reservoir group system schematic of the present invention；
Fig. 3 is calculation procedure schematic flow sheet of the present invention.
Embodiment
For technical scheme disclosed by the invention further elucidated above, done with reference to Figure of description and specific embodiment
Detailed description.
The present invention has considered the uncertain of multi-reservoir reservoir inflow process, the uncertain of multi-reservoir out of flow procedure, area
Between flood forecasting process not true property, it is contemplated that the correlation between uncertain factor, established by Copula function theories
The joint probability density distribution function of above uncertain factor, it is proposed that the definition of multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk is simultaneously
The analytic sensitivity of each moment multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk is tried to achieve.
As shown in figure 1, a kind of parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk Analytic Calculation Method, comprises the following steps：
Step 1：The mathematic(al) representation of uncertain factor is proposed, solves the marginal distribution function of uncertain factor：
(1.1) Q is definedi(t) the reservoir inflow random process for being t reservoir i, calculation formula are as follows：
Wherein,For the average of t reservoir i reservoir inflow random process；ξi(t) storage for being t reservoir i
Traffic forecast error, ξi(t) Normal Distribution, i.e.,Distributed constantFor reservoir i reservoir inflow
The mean square deviation of prediction error, it can be obtained by hydrologic forecast model.Then t reservoir i reservoir inflow random process qi(t)
Also Normal Distribution, i.e.,
Then, q is defined3(t) it is the district flood random process of t downstream flood control control section, calculation formula meter is such as
Under：
Wherein,For the average of t district flood random process, i.e. certainty hydrologic forecast result；ξ3(t) it is t
Moment district flood prediction error, ξ3(t) Normal Distribution, i.e.,Distributed constantFor section flood
The mean square deviation of water prediction error, it can be obtained by hydrologic forecast model.The then district flood of t downstream flood control control section
Random process q3(t) also Normal Distribution, i.e.,
(1.2) q is definedi(t) the storage outflow random process for being t reservoir i, calculation formula are as follows：
Wherein,For the average of t reservoir i storage outflow random process；ηi(t) outbound for being t reservoir i
Flow error, ηi(t) Normal Distribution, i.e.,Then t reservoir i storage outflow random process qi
(t) also Normal Distribution, i.e.,Distributed constantFor reservoir i storage outflow error it is equal
Variance, calculation procedure are as follows：
1) according to reservoir i reservoir inflow random processAnd section
Flood random processDistribution, the M groups of preferred Latin Hypercube Sampling generation here
The sample of reservoir inflow processWith the sample of district flood process
2) according to reservoir i Flood Control Dispatch rule, reservoir routing is carried out by principle of water balance, water is calculated
Storehouse i storage outflow process sample
3) according to the distribution of reservoir i each moment reservoir i storage outflow random processes of storage outflow process sample fitting
Step 2：Based on Copula functions, the joint probability density distribution function of solution multidimensional uncertain factor：
Define H (q1(t),q2(t),q3(t)) go out to flow random process q for uncertain factor-reservoir 11(t), reservoir 2
Go out to flow random process q2And district flood random process q (t)3(t) joint probability distribution function, managed according to Copula functions
By being calculated using below equation：
H(q1(t),q2(t),q3(t))=C (F (q1(t)),F(q2(t)),F(q3(t))) (9)
Wherein, F (q1(t))、F(q2(t))、F(q3(t) it is respectively) that uncertain factor reservoir 1 goes out to flow random process q1
(t), reservoir 2 goes out to flow random process q2And district flood random process q (t)3(t) marginal distribution function, C are Copula letters
Number.
The Copula functions used in this example include following 3 kinds：
Wherein, α (t) is the parameter of Copula functions, and the present embodiment preferably carries out Coupla functions using maximum-likelihood method
Parameter Estimation.
Local derviation is asked to formula (9) both sides, obtain uncertain factor-reservoir 1 goes out to flow random process q1(t), reservoir 2 goes out stream
Random process q2And district flood random process q (t)3(t) joint probability density function is as follows：
Wherein, f (qi(t)) it is uncertain factor qi(t), i=1,2,3 probability density function；
h(q1(t),q2(t),q3(t)) go out to flow random process q for uncertain factor reservoir 11(t), reservoir 2 go out stream with
Machine process q2And district flood random process q (t)3(t) joint probability density function；
c(F(q1(t)),F(q2(t)),F(q3(t)) it is Copula functions C (F (q1(t)),F(q2(t)),F(q3(t))
Probability density function.
Enter the inspection of three kinds of Copula functions in line (10) in the present embodiment respectively using the K-S methods of inspection, screening is not
The standby Copula functions of certainty factor, the fitting of standby Copula functions is then carried out in the present embodiment using OLS criterions
Optimal evaluation, so as to select joint probability distribution of the best Copula functions of degree of fitting as uncertain factor, wherein respectively
The OLS values of Copula functions are calculated using below equation：
Wherein,Go out to flow random process q for uncertain factor-reservoir 11(t), reservoir 2 goes out
Flow random process q2And district flood random process q (t)3(t) empirical cumulative probable value；For not
Certainty factor-reservoir 1 goes out to flow random process q1(t), reservoir 2 goes out to flow random process q2And district flood random process (t)
q3(t) theoretical cumulative probability value.
Step 3, multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk model is established, parses each moment multi-reservoir flood control operation risk.
It is that public flood control point combined flow process exceedes flood control control section peace to define multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk
The probability Risk (t) of full flow threshold value, represent that t has the public flood control point combined flow process of Risk (t) probability to exceed
Flood control control section safe traffic threshold value, the risk information of decision in the face of risk is provided for policymaker.Formula (11) is substituted into formula (1), it is whole
Manage each moment multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk Risk (t) analytic sensitivity：
Wherein, QC(t) the safe traffic threshold value of t flood control control section is represented, the safety that can use public flood control point is let out
Amount；Ω0={ q1(t)+q2(t)+q3(t) ＞ QC(t) }, Ω1For corresponding to Ω0Integral Transformation section.
Step 4, the calculating of multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk.
The application of multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk model is carried out, when the present embodiment is calculated each using recursive algorithm
Carve multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk, the flow of algorithm as shown in Figure 3, mainly including following solution procedure：
(1) service data of multi-reservoir is obtained, includes the Flood Control Dispatch rule of reservoir, water level storage-capacity curve, discharge capacity
The characteristic values such as curve, starting-point detection, design flood level, check flood level and reservoir crest elevation；
(2) the real-time prediction reservoir inflow average process of multi-reservoir is obtainedDistrict flood forecasts average mistake
JourneyReservoir inflow prediction error ξi(t), i=1,2, district flood prediction error ξ3(t)；
(3) according to multi-reservoir reservoir inflow random process and district flood random process distribution, adopt in the present embodiment
With the sample of Latin Hypercube Sampling generation M group reservoir inflow processesWith
The sample of district flood process
(4) according to reservoir i Flood Control Dispatch rule, reservoir routing is carried out by principle of water balance, is calculated
Reservoir i storage outflow process sample
(5) according to formula (8), the distributed constant of calculating reservoir i storage outflow random processesWith
(6) standby Copula functions are selected, and carry out K-S inspections；
(7) the OLS values of this Copula function, the OLS values of more each standby Copula functions, choosing are calculated according to formula (12)
Select the minimum Copula functions of OLS values and go out to flow random process q as uncertain factor-reservoir 11(t), reservoir 2 go out stream with
Machine process q2And district flood random process q (t)3(t) joint probability distribution function；
(8) according to the Copula functions and formula (13) of selection, public flood control point safe traffic threshold value Q is setC(t), count
Calculate each moment multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk.
Claims (6)
- A kind of 1. parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk Analytic Calculation Method, it is characterised in that：Comprise the following steps：(1) mathematic(al) representation of uncertain factor is established, solves the marginal distribution function of uncertain factor；(2) Copula functions are based on, solve the joint probability density distribution function of multidimensional uncertain factor；(3) multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk model is established, parses each moment multi-reservoir flood control operation risk；(4) calculating of multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk.
- A kind of 2. parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk Analytic Calculation Method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：Step Suddenly uncertain factor described in (1) includes the not true of multi-reservoir reservoir inflow, multi-reservoir storage outflow and district flood forecast It is qualitative.
- A kind of 3. parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk Analytic Calculation Method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：Institute Step (2) is stated to comprise the following steps：(2.1) H (q are defined1(t),q2(t),q3(t)) for reservoir 1 go out to flow random process, reservoir 2 goes out to flow random process, He Qu Between flood go out to flow the joint probability distribution function of random process, calculation formula is as follows：H(q1(t),q2(t),q3(t))=C (F (q1(t)),F(q2(t)),F(q3(t))) (1)In formula, q1(t) it is the storage outflow random process of t reservoir 1；q2(t) it is the random mistake of storage outflow of t reservoir 2 Journey；q3(t) it is the district flood random process of t downstream flood control control section；F(q1(t))、F(q2(t))、F(q3(t)) divide Not Wei uncertain factor-reservoir 1 go out to flow random process q1(t), reservoir 2 goes out to flow random process q2(t) and district flood with Machine process q3(t) marginal distribution function；C is Copula functions；(2.2) h (q are defined1(t),q2(t),q3(t)) for reservoir 1 go out to flow random process, reservoir 2 goes out to flow random process, He Qu Between flood random process joint probability density function, calculation formula is as follows：In formula, f (qi(t)) it is uncertain factor qi(t), i=1,2,3 probability density function, c (F (q1(t)),F(q2 (t)),F(q3(t)) it is Copula functions C (F (q1(t)),F(q2(t)),F(q3(t) probability density function).
- A kind of 4. parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk Analytic Calculation Method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：Step Suddenly the Copula functions described in (2) include 3 kinds of calculation formula, and expression formula is as follows：Wherein, α (t) is the parameter of Copula functions.
- A kind of 5. parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk Analytic Calculation Method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：Institute Step (3) is stated to comprise the following steps that：It is that the public flood control point combined flow process of t exceedes flood control control to define multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk Risk (t) The probability of section safe traffic threshold value processed, by the uncertain factor in Copula functional links step (1), obtain multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk Risk (t) calculation formula is：In formula, Risk (t) represents t reservoir group system Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk；Q (t) represents the public flood control point of t Combined flow process；QC(t) the safe traffic threshold value of t flood control control section is represented, the safety that can use public flood control point is let out Amount；Ω0={ q1(t)+q2(t)+q3(t) ＞ QC(t) }, Ω1For corresponding to Ω0Integral Transformation section.
- A kind of 6. parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk Analytic Calculation Method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that：Institute Step (4) is stated to comprise the following steps：(4.1) obtain multi-reservoir service data and real-time prediction reservoir inflow average process and error distribution, district flood it is pre- Report average process and error distribution；(4.2) reservoir routing is carried out according to reservoir regulation for flood control rule, calculates reservoir storage outflow random process；(4.3) selection Copula functions go out to flow random process q as uncertain factor-reservoir 11(t), it is random to go out stream for reservoir 2 Process q2And district flood random process q (t)3(t) joint probability distribution function.(4.4) according to the Copula functions of selection, each moment multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk is calculated.
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| CN110033164A (en) * | 2019-03-04 | 2019-07-19 | 华中科技大学 | A kind of Risk assessment and decision method of multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch |
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| CN110673230A (en) * | 2019-07-12 | 2020-01-10 | 中山大学 | Entropy decision method based dynamic critical rainfall calculation method |
| CN116227800A (en) * | 2022-11-09 | 2023-06-06 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Parallel reservoir group flood control optimal scheduling scheme generation method based on flood control pressure value |
| CN116227800B (en) * | 2022-11-09 | 2023-12-22 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Parallel reservoir group flood control optimal scheduling scheme generation method based on flood control pressure value |
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