CN107808237B - A kind of parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk Analytic Calculation Method - Google Patents
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- 230000009466 transformation Effects 0.000 claims description 3
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk Analytic Calculation Methods, the described method comprises the following steps: (1) establishing the mathematic(al) representation of uncertain factor, obtain the marginal distribution function of uncertain factor；(2) it is based on Copula function, solves the joint probability density distribution function of multidimensional uncertain factor；(3) multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk model is established, each moment multi-reservoir flood control operation risk is parsed；(4) calculating of multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk.The present invention considers influence of the correlation between uncertain factor to multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk, has acquired the analytic sensitivity of each moment multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk, and computational efficiency is high, is easily achieved, and has stronger versatility.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to reservoir regulation for flood control risk assessment, and in particular to a kind of parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk parsing
Calculation method.
Background technique
Multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood is one of the important technical of Flood Prevention mitigation, can pass through lesser investment
To improve the benefit of flood control works.But during existing multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood, there are many uncertainties
Factor, it is uncertain, multi-reservoir outflow process uncertain, district flood forecasting process including multi-reservoir reservoir inflow process
Not true property, these uncertain factors result in the uncertain of the public flood control point combined flow process in downstream, give flood decision band
Influence centainly is carried out, and there is certain risk.Therefore, the risk assessment of multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood has important
Art meaning and practical value, main target are prevented to the uncertain factor of multi-reservoir Flood Control Dispatch process and its to multi-reservoir
Big vast scheduling result bring risk is qualitatively analyzed and quantitative calculating.
Currently, existing multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood methods of risk assessment is primarily present following deficiency: (1) being difficult to obtain
The joint probability density distribution function of multidimensional uncertain factor；(2) method of stochastic simulation calculates multi-reservoir Real time Flood tune
Risk is spent, computational efficiency is not high, versatility is inadequate, and different systems is needed to model again.
Summary of the invention
Goal of the invention: in view of the above shortcomings of the prior art, the present invention provides a kind of parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk
Analytic Calculation Method assesses risk problem caused by uncertain factor in the parsing of parallel reservoir group Real time Flood.
A kind of technical solution: parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk Analytic Calculation Method, comprising the following steps:
(1) mathematic(al) representation for establishing uncertain factor solves the marginal distribution function of uncertain factor；
(2) it is based on Copula function, solves the joint probability density distribution function of multidimensional uncertain factor；
(3) multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk model is established, each moment multi-reservoir flood control operation risk is parsed；
(4) calculating of multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk.
Further, uncertain factor described in step (1) include multi-reservoir reservoir inflow, multi-reservoir storage outflow and
The uncertainty of district flood forecast.
Further, the step (2) includes the following steps:
(2.1) H (q is defined1(t),q2(t),q3(t)) for reservoir 1 go out stream random process, reservoir 2 go out flow random process,
Go out to flow the joint probability distribution function of random process with district flood, calculation formula is as follows:
H(q1(t),q2(t),q3(t))=C (F (q1(t)),F(q2(t)),F(q3(t))) (1)
In formula, q1It (t) is the storage outflow random process of t moment reservoir 1；q2(t) for t moment reservoir 2 storage outflow with
Machine process；q3It (t) is the district flood random process of t moment downstream flood control control section；F(q1(t))、F(q2(t))、F(q3
It (t)) is respectively the stream random process q out of uncertain factor-reservoir 11(t), reservoir 2 goes out to flow random process q2(t) and section
Flood random process q3(t) marginal distribution function；C is Copula function；
(2.2) h (q is defined1(t),q2(t),q3(t)) for reservoir 1 go out stream random process, reservoir 2 go out flow random process,
With the joint probability density function of district flood random process, calculation formula is as follows:
In formula, f (qiIt (t)) is uncertain factor qi(t), i=1,2,3 probability density function, c (F (q1(t)),F
(q2(t)),F(q3It (t)) is Copula function C (F (q1(t)),F(q2(t)),F(q3(t)) probability density function.
Further, Copula function described in step (2) includes 3 kinds of calculation formula, and expression formula is as follows:
Wherein, α (t) is the parameter of Copula function；
Further, specific step is as follows for the step (3):
Defining multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk Risk (t) is the public flood control point combined flow process of t moment more than anti-
The probability of big vast control section safe traffic threshold value obtains water by the uncertain factor in Copula functional link step (1)
The calculation formula of library group Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk Risk (t) are as follows:
In formula, Risk (t) indicates t moment reservoir group system Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk；Q (t) indicates the public flood control of t moment
The combined flow process of point；QC(t) the safe traffic threshold value for indicating t moment flood control control section, can use the peace of public flood control point
Full discharge；Ω0={ q1(t)+q2(t)+q3(t) > QC(t) }, Ω1For corresponding to Ω0Integral Transformation section.
Further, the step (4) includes the following steps:
(4.1) operation data and real-time prediction reservoir inflow mean value process of acquisition multi-reservoir and error distribution, section flood
Water forecasts mean value process and error distribution；
(4.2) reservoir routing is carried out according to reservoir regulation for flood control rule, calculates reservoir storage outflow random process；
(4.3) Copula function is selected to go out stream random process q as uncertain factor-reservoir 11(t), reservoir 2 goes out
Flow random process q2(t) and district flood random process q3(t) joint probability distribution function.
(4.4) according to the Copula function of selection, each moment multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk is calculated.
The utility model has the advantages that the present invention is compared with prior art, remarkable result is: 1, considering between uncertain factor
Influence of the correlation to multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk, multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood methods of risk assessment Consideration is more
Add comprehensively；2, the analytic sensitivity of each moment multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk is established by Copula function；3, it solves
Analysis calculation method computational efficiency is high, is easily achieved, and has stronger versatility.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the method for the present invention；
Fig. 2 is parallel reservoir group system schematic of the present invention；
Fig. 3 is that the present invention calculates steps flow chart schematic diagram.
Specific embodiment
For technical solution disclosed by the invention further elucidated above, done with reference to the accompanying drawings of the specification with specific embodiment
Detailed description.
The present invention has comprehensively considered the uncertain of multi-reservoir reservoir inflow process, the uncertain of multi-reservoir outflow process, area
Between flood forecasting process not true property, it is contemplated that the correlation between uncertain factor is established by Copula function theory
The joint probability density distribution function of the above uncertain factor, proposes the definition of multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk simultaneously
The analytic sensitivity of each moment multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk is acquired.
As shown in Figure 1, a kind of parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk Analytic Calculation Method, comprising the following steps:
Step 1: it proposes the mathematic(al) representation of uncertain factor, solves the marginal distribution function of uncertain factor:
(1.1) Q is definedi(t) the reservoir inflow random process for being t moment reservoir i, calculation formula are as follows:
Wherein,For the mean value of the reservoir inflow random process of t moment reservoir i；ξi(t) storage for being t moment reservoir i
Traffic forecast error, ξi(t) Normal Distribution, i.e.,Distribution parameterFor the reservoir inflow of reservoir i
The mean square deviation of prediction error can be obtained by hydrologic forecast model.The then reservoir inflow random process q of t moment reservoir ii(t)
Also Normal Distribution, i.e.,
Then, q is defined3It (t) is the district flood random process of t moment downstream flood control control section, calculation formula meter is such as
Under:
Wherein,For the mean value of t moment district flood random process, i.e. certainty hydrologic forecast result；ξ3It (t) is t
Moment district flood prediction error, ξ3(t) Normal Distribution, i.e.,Distribution parameterFor section flood
The mean square deviation of water prediction error can be obtained by hydrologic forecast model.The then district flood of t moment downstream flood control control section
Random process q3(t) also Normal Distribution, i.e.,
(1.2) q is definedi(t) the storage outflow random process for being t moment reservoir i, calculation formula are as follows:
Wherein,For the mean value of the storage outflow random process of t moment reservoir i；ηi(t) outbound for being t moment reservoir i
Flow error, ηi(t) Normal Distribution, i.e.,The then storage outflow random process q of t moment reservoir ii
(t) also Normal Distribution, i.e.,Distribution parameterFor reservoir i storage outflow error it is equal
Variance, steps are as follows for calculating:
1) according to the reservoir inflow random process of reservoir iThe section and
Flood random processDistribution, preferred Latin Hypercube Sampling generates M group here
The sample of reservoir inflow processWith the sample of district flood process
2) according to the Flood Control Dispatch of reservoir i rule, reservoir routing is carried out by principle of water balance, water is calculated
The storage outflow process sample of library i
3) according to the distribution of each moment reservoir i storage outflow random process of the storage outflow process sample fitting of reservoir i
Step 2: it is based on Copula function, solves the joint probability density distribution function of multidimensional uncertain factor:
Define H (q1(t),q2(t),q3(t)) go out stream random process q for uncertain factor-reservoir 11(t), reservoir 2
Random process q is flowed out2(t) and district flood random process q3(t) joint probability distribution function is managed according to Copula function
By being calculated using the following equation:
H(q1(t),q2(t),q3(t))=C (F (q1(t)),F(q2(t)),F(q3(t))) (9)
Wherein, F (q1(t))、F(q2(t))、F(q3(t)) be respectively uncertain factor reservoir 1 go out stream random process q1
(t), reservoir 2 goes out to flow random process q2(t) and district flood random process q3(t) marginal distribution function, C are Copula letter
Number.
The Copula function used in this example includes following 3 kinds:
Wherein, α (t) is the parameter of Copula function, and the present embodiment preferably uses maximum-likelihood method to carry out Coupla function
Parameter Estimation.
Local derviation is asked to formula (9) both sides, obtain uncertain factor-reservoir 1 goes out stream random process q1(t), reservoir 2 goes out to flow
Random process q2(t) and district flood random process q3(t) joint probability density function is as follows:
Wherein, f (qiIt (t)) is uncertain factor qi(t), the probability density function of i=1,2,3；
h(q1(t),q2(t),q3(t)) go out stream random process q for uncertain factor reservoir 11(t), reservoir 2 go out flow with
Machine process q2(t) and district flood random process q3(t) joint probability density function；
c(F(q1(t)),F(q2(t)),F(q3It (t)) is Copula function C (F (q1(t)),F(q2(t)),F(q3(t))
Probability density function.
Carry out the inspection of three kinds of Copula functions in formula (10) in the present embodiment respectively using the K-S method of inspection, screening is not
Then the spare Copula function of certainty factor carries out the fitting of spare Copula function using OLS criterion in the present embodiment
Optimal evaluation, so that joint probability distribution of the best Copula function of degree of fitting as uncertain factor is selected, wherein respectively
The OLS value of Copula function is calculated using the following equation:
Wherein,Go out stream random process q for uncertain factor-reservoir 11(t), reservoir 2 goes out
Flow random process q2(t) and district flood random process q3(t) empirical cumulative probability value；For not
Certainty factor-reservoir 1 goes out stream random process q1(t), reservoir 2 goes out to flow random process q2(t) and district flood random process
q3(t) theoretical cumulative probability value.
Step 3, multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk model is established, each moment multi-reservoir flood control operation risk is parsed.
Defining multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk is public flood control point combined flow process more than flood control control section peace
The probability Risk (t) of full flow threshold value indicates that t moment has the public flood control point combined flow process of the probability of Risk (t) that can be more than
Flood control control section safe traffic threshold value, provides the risk information of decision in the face of risk for policymaker.Formula (11) are substituted into formula (1), it is whole
Manage each moment multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk Risk (t) analytic sensitivity:
Wherein, QC(t) indicate that the safe traffic threshold value of t moment flood control control section, the safety that can use public flood control point are let out
Amount；Ω0={ q1(t)+q2(t)+q3(t) > QC(t) }, Ω1For corresponding to Ω0Integral Transformation section.
Step 4, the calculating of multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk.
The application of multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk model is carried out, when the present embodiment is calculated each using recursive algorithm
Multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk is carved, it mainly includes following solution procedure that the process of algorithm is as shown in Fig. 3:
(1) operation data for obtaining multi-reservoir, the Flood Control Dispatch rule including reservoir, water level storage-capacity curve, discharge capacity
The characteristic values such as curve, starting-point detection, design flood level, check flood level and reservoir crest elevation；
(2) the real-time prediction reservoir inflow mean value process of multi-reservoir is obtainedDistrict flood forecasts mean value mistake
JourneyReservoir inflow prediction error ξi(t), i=1,2, district flood prediction error ξ3(t)；
(3) it according to the distribution of the reservoir inflow random process of multi-reservoir and district flood random process, is adopted in the present embodiment
The sample of M group reservoir inflow process is generated with Latin Hypercube SamplingWith
The sample of district flood process
(4) according to the Flood Control Dispatch of reservoir i rule, reservoir routing is carried out by principle of water balance, is calculated
The storage outflow process sample of reservoir i
(5) according to formula (8), the distribution parameter of reservoir i storage outflow random process is calculatedWith
(6) spare Copula function is selected, and carries out K-S inspection；
(7) the OLS value of this Copula function, the OLS value of more each spare Copula function, choosing are calculated according to formula (12)
The smallest Copula function of OLS value is selected as uncertain factor-reservoir 1 and goes out stream random process q1(t), reservoir 2 go out flow with
Machine process q2(t) and district flood random process q3(t) joint probability distribution function；
(8) according to the Copula function and formula (13) of selection, public flood control point safe traffic threshold value Q is setC(t), it counts
Calculate each moment multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk.
Claims (5)
1. a kind of parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk Analytic Calculation Method, it is characterised in that: the following steps are included:
(1) consider that each reservoir reservoir inflow random process, each reservoir storage outflow random process, district flood forecast random process
Three kinds of uncertain factors；Each uncertain factor random process is expressed as by the mathematic(al) representation for establishing uncertain factor
Its mean value is superimposed with its error stochastic process, and the marginal distribution function of uncertain factor is described using normal distribution；
(2) by stochastic simulation and reservoir routing, each reservoir reservoir inflow is random based on each reservoir regulation for flood control rule
Process is converted into each reservoir storage outflow random process；Based on Copula function, solving includes each random mistake of reservoir storage outflow
The joint probability density distribution function of the multidimensional uncertain factor of journey and district flood forecast random process；
(3) defining multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk is public flood control point combined flow process more than flood control control section safety
The probability of flow threshold；It is close by the joint probability to each reservoir outflow process and district flood process multidimensional uncertain factor
The direct integral of distribution function is spent, parsing obtains each moment multi-reservoir flood control operation risk；
(4) real-time running data, each reservoir forecast reservoir inflow process and its error process, district flood process of reservoir are obtained
And its error process；Each reservoir storage outflow random process is established by Copula function and district flood forecasts that random process is more
The joint probability density distribution function of uncertain factor is tieed up, the calculating of multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk is carried out.
2. a kind of parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk Analytic Calculation Method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: institute
Step (2) is stated to include the following steps:
(2.1) H (q is defined1(t),q2(t),q3(t)) random for the storage outflow random process of reservoir 1, the storage outflow of reservoir 2
The joint probability distribution function of process and district flood forecast random process, calculation formula are as follows:
H(q1(t),q2(t),q3(t))=C (F (q1(t)),F(q2(t)),F(q3(t))) (1)
In formula, q1It (t) is the storage outflow random process of t moment reservoir 1；q2It (t) is the random mistake of storage outflow of t moment reservoir 2
Journey；q3It (t) is the district flood random process of t moment downstream flood control control section；F(q1(t))、F(q2(t))、F(q3(t)) divide
Not Wei uncertain factor-reservoir 1 storage outflow random process q1(t), the storage outflow random process q of reservoir 22(t) and
District flood forecasts random process q3(t) marginal distribution function；C is Copula function；
(2.2) h (q is defined1(t),q2(t),q3(t)) random for the storage outflow random process of reservoir 1, the storage outflow of reservoir 2
The joint probability density function of process and district flood forecast random process, calculation formula are as follows:
In formula, f (qiIt (t)) is uncertain factor qi(t), i=1,2,3 probability density function, c (F (q1(t)),F(q2
(t)),F(q3It (t)) is Copula function C (F (q1(t)),F(q2(t)),F(q3(t)) probability density function.
3. a kind of parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk Analytic Calculation Method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: step
Suddenly Copula function described in (2) includes 3 kinds of calculation formula, and expression formula is as follows:
Wherein, α (t) is the parameter of Copula function, F (q1It (t)) is the storage outflow random process (q of reservoir 11(t)) edge
Distribution function, F (q2It (t)) is the storage outflow random process (q of reservoir 22(t)) marginal distribution function, F (q3It (t)) is section
Flood forecasting random process (q3(t)) marginal distribution function.
4. a kind of parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk Analytic Calculation Method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: institute
Stating step (3), specific step is as follows:
Defining multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk Risk (t) is the public flood control point combined flow process of t moment more than flood control control
The probability of section safe traffic threshold value processed obtains multi-reservoir by the uncertain factor in Copula functional link step (1)
The calculation formula of Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk Risk (t) are as follows:
In formula, Risk (t) indicates t moment reservoir group system Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk；Q (t) indicates the public flood control point of t moment
Combined flow process；QC(t) indicate that the safe traffic threshold value of t moment flood control control section, the safety that can use public flood control point are let out
Amount；Ω0={ q1(t)+q2(t)+q3(t) > QC(t) }, Ω1For corresponding to Ω0Integral Transformation section；F(q1It (t)) is reservoir 1
Storage outflow random process (q1(t)) marginal distribution function, F (q2It (t)) is the storage outflow random process (q of reservoir 22
(t)) marginal distribution function, F (q3(t)) random process (q is forecast for district flood3(t)) marginal distribution function；h(q1
(t),q2(t),q3(t)) pre- for the storage outflow random process of reservoir 1, the storage outflow random process of reservoir 2 and district flood
Report the joint probability density function of random process.
5. a kind of parallel reservoir group Real time Flood risk Analytic Calculation Method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that: institute
Step (4) is stated to include the following steps:
(4.1) obtain multi-reservoir operation data and real-time prediction reservoir inflow mean value process and error distribution, district flood it is pre-
Report mean value process and error distribution；
(4.2) reservoir routing is carried out according to reservoir regulation for flood control rule, calculates reservoir storage outflow random process；
(4.3) Copula function is selected to go out stream random process q as uncertain factor-reservoir 11(t), reservoir 2 goes out to flow random
Process q2(t) and district flood random process q3(t) joint probability distribution function；
(4.4) according to the Copula function of selection, each moment multi-reservoir Technique for Real-time Joint Operation of Flood risk is calculated.
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| CN110033164B (en) * | 2019-03-04 | 2021-07-02 | 华中科技大学 | Risk assessment and decision method for reservoir group combined flood control scheduling |
| CN109902267B (en) * | 2019-03-07 | 2022-09-23 | 江西省水利科学研究院 | River channel safety discharge amount calculation method influenced by downstream lake jacking |
| CN109993372B (en) * | 2019-04-12 | 2022-11-22 | 淮河水利委员会水文局(信息中心) | Flood probability forecasting method based on multi-source uncertainty |
| CN110673230A (en) * | 2019-07-12 | 2020-01-10 | 中山大学 | Entropy decision method based dynamic critical rainfall calculation method |
| CN116227800B (en) * | 2022-11-09 | 2023-12-22 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Parallel reservoir group flood control optimal scheduling scheme generation method based on flood control pressure value |
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| CN104615907A (en) * | 2015-03-11 | 2015-05-13 | 武汉大学 | Method for deriving and designing flood process line based on multi-variable most possible condition combination |
| CN104727264A (en) * | 2015-04-07 | 2015-06-24 | 武汉大学 | Damsite flood restoration method based on Copula function |
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| CN104727264A (en) * | 2015-04-07 | 2015-06-24 | 武汉大学 | Damsite flood restoration method based on Copula function |
| CN105887751A (en) * | 2016-04-28 | 2016-08-24 | 武汉大学 | Multi-variable flood recurrence period calculating method considering reservoir flood routing calculation |
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