CN110033164A - A kind of Risk assessment and decision method of multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch - Google Patents
A kind of Risk assessment and decision method of multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention relates to the risk analysis methods and decision-making technique of a kind of multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch, it include: that every kind of scheduling scheme is based on a variety of uncertain factors, n times operation simulation is carried out to multi-reservoir, the maximum of each reservoir under this kind of scheduling scheme is obtained and occupies storage capacity sequence；Maximum occupancy storage capacity sequence based on each reservoir, calculates kinds of risks evaluation index of each reservoir under each scheduling scheme；Weight and kinds of risks evaluation index based on each reservoir calculate a variety of integrated risk evaluation indexes of the multi-reservoir under each scheduling scheme；It is preferred to carry out decision to a variety of scheduling schemes for a variety of integrated risk evaluation indexes based on multi-reservoir under each scheduling scheme.The present invention considers existing multiple uncertain factor during Flood Control Dispatch, and merge kinds of risks index, kinds of risks index is weighted coupling between each reservoir, multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch is parsed to the response pattern of multiple uncertain factor, effectively improves the accuracy of risk analysis.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to Flood Control Dispatch technical fields, more particularly to a kind of risk assessment of multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch
With decision-making technique.
Background technique
Multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch is one of the important technical of Flood Prevention mitigation.As basin large reservoir is built
If putting into operation, by upstream and downstream multi-reservoir combined dispatching, the flood control peace of reservoir itself and downstream flood control control point can be effectively ensured
Entirely.Multi-reservoir Flood Control Dispatch process by water process, prediction error, water level storage capacity and under let out the multiple uncertain factor such as ability
It influences, is the incomplete complicated decision-making problems of a kind of multistage, multi-objects and multi-layers, information.
Existing reservoir operation risk analysis and decision-making technique are mostly only using single library as research object, decision in the face of risk index
(relative risk etc.) lacks pre- to may cause after reservoir or flood control control point occurrence risk (water level or flow are more than secure threshold)
Wall losses size is measured, and can not describe reservoir level and the flood control possible fluctuation feelings of control point flow in scheduling process
Condition.For this purpose, existing method is still unable to risk that may be present in accurate evaluation scheduling process, with this to numerous feasible dispatching parties
It is preferred that case carries out decision.How under the influence of multiple uncertain, the extensive multi-reservoir of watershed combine Flood Control Dispatch scheme into
Comprehensive, multi-angle the Risk assessment and decision of row is a technical problem urgently to be resolved.
Summary of the invention
The present invention provides a kind of Risk assessment and decision method of multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch, to solve the prior art
It is middle to combine the technical problem that risk precision of analysis is low under Flood Control Dispatch there are multi-reservoir.
The technical scheme to solve the above technical problems is that a kind of risk assessment of multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch
With decision-making technique, comprising:
Step 1, the preset a variety of scheduling schemes of starting, so that every kind of scheduling scheme is based on preset a variety of uncertain
Sexual factor carries out n times operation simulation to multi-reservoir, obtains the maximum of each reservoir under this kind of scheduling scheme and occupies storage capacity sequence；
Step 2, the maximum occupancy storage capacity sequence based on reservoir each under scheduling scheme described in every kind, are calculated this
Kinds of risks evaluation index of the reservoir under the scheduling scheme；
Step 3, the default weight based on each reservoir and the kinds of risks evaluation index, calculate the multi-reservoir
A variety of integrated risk evaluation indexes under each scheduling scheme；
Step 4, based on a variety of integrated risk evaluation indexes of the multi-reservoir under each scheduling scheme and
Mahalanobis distance TOPSIS method is improved, it is preferred to carry out decision to a variety of scheduling schemes.
The beneficial effects of the present invention are: the present invention considers existing multiple uncertain factor during Flood Control Dispatch, and
Kinds of risks index is merged, kinds of risks index is weighted coupling between each reservoir, parsing multi-reservoir joint flood control is adjusted
Spend to the response pattern of multiple uncertain factor, from multiple angles accurately portray Flood Control Dispatch during by various uncertainties
Risk of loss degree caused by factor and reservoir operation process variation situation, efficiently solve multiple uncertain factor lower storage reservoir
The risk quantification of group's joint Flood Control Dispatch and the technical problem of assessment improve risk analysis under multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch
Accuracy can greatly reduce the security risk of multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch.
Based on the above technical solution, the present invention can also be improved as follows.
Further, the step 1 includes:
Step 1.1 passes through predetermined analog method, described uncertain to every kind in preset a variety of uncertain factors respectively
Sexual factor carries out n times stochastic simulation, obtains the corresponding n group uncertainty simulated series of every kind of uncertain factor, and n is positive
Integer；
Step 1.2, the preset a variety of scheduling schemes of starting, so that every kind of scheduling scheme is based on various described uncertain
The uncertain simulated series of the corresponding n group of sexual factor, carry out n times operation simulation to multi-reservoir, obtain this kind of scheduling
The maximum of each reservoir occupies storage capacity sequence under scheme.
Further, a variety of uncertain factors include: prediction error, water level storage capacity, and under let out ability.
Further beneficial effect of the invention is: multi-reservoir Flood Control Dispatch process by prediction error, water level storage capacity and under let out
The multiple uncertain factor influence such as ability makes scheduling result deviation occur, so as to cause risk, therefore it is a variety of it is uncertain because
Element include prediction error, water level storage capacity, and under let out ability, the accuracy of risk analysis can be improved.
Further, the step 1.1 includes:
By preset Copula analogy method, n times are carried out to the prediction error and simulate value, obtained the forecast and miss
The uncertain simulated series of the corresponding n group of difference；
Respectively by preset Latin hypercube body analogy method to the water level storage capacity and it is described under let out ability carry out n times
Simulated sampling, obtain the uncertain simulated series of the corresponding n group of the water level storage capacity and it is described under to let out the corresponding n group of ability not true
Deterministic simulation sequence.
Further, the calculation method of the weight of each reservoir are as follows:
Each institute is calculated using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) based on the Average Annual Runoff and storage capacity of each reservoir
State the weight of reservoir.
Further, the kinds of risks index includes maximum mean value, Conditional Lyapunov ExponentP and the risk entropy for occupying storage capacity.
Further beneficial effect of the invention is: the present invention considers maximum occupancy library under the influence of a variety of uncertain factors
These three risk indicators of mean value, Conditional Lyapunov ExponentP and the risk entropy of appearance pass through storage capacity mean value-Conditional Lyapunov ExponentP-wind
Dangerous entropy weights coupling driving, carries out forecast analysis to the risk of Flood Control Dispatch.Cover the occupancy flood control of multi-reservoir maximum by establishing
The multiple risks assessment indicator system of storage capacity mean value, risk fluctuation situation and risk of loss degree, can Exact Solutions analysis multi-reservoir
Response pattern of the risk existing for joint Flood Control Dispatch to a variety of uncertain factors.
Further, in the step 2, the kinds of risks assessment that this reservoir is calculated under the scheduling scheme refers to
Target calculation formula is as follows:
Maximum occupies the mean value of storage capacityMaximum occupies the Conditional Lyapunov ExponentP of storage capacityM=INT (n* (1- α))；Maximum occupies the risk entropy of storage capacity
In formula, xiFor the maximum occupancy library under i-th operation simulation in the maximum occupancy storage capacity sequence of the reservoir
Hold；α is the value of the confidence, and value is preset constant；WkIt is occupied for the maximum big maximum of kth in storage capacity sequence that occupies of the reservoir
Storage capacity；P(Wk) it is WkThe probability of generation, value 1/n；F (x) is the maximum occupancy library of the reservoir under the scheduling scheme
Hold the corresponding probability density function of sequence.
Further, a variety of integrated risk evaluation indexes include maximum comprehensive mean, the integrated condition wind for occupying storage capacity
Danger value and integrated risk entropy.
Further, in the step 3, a variety of comprehensive wind for calculating the multi-reservoir under each scheduling scheme
The calculation formula of dangerous evaluation index is as follows:
The maximum comprehensive mean for occupying storage capacity of the multi-reservoirThe multi-reservoir it is described
Maximum occupies the integrated condition venture worth of storage capacityThe maximum occupancy storage capacity of the multi-reservoir
Integrated risk entropy
In formula,CVaRjAnd HjThe maximum mean value for occupying storage capacity of j-th reservoir in the respectively described multi-reservoir,
Conditional Lyapunov ExponentP and risk entropy；ωjFor the weight of j-th of reservoir；J is the total number of reservoir in the multi-reservoir.
The present invention also provides a kind of storage medium, instruction is stored in the storage medium, when computer reads the finger
When enabling, the computer is made to execute the Risk assessment and decision method such as above-mentioned any multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the Risk assessment and decision method that a kind of multi-reservoir provided by one embodiment of the present invention combines Flood Control Dispatch
Flow diagram；
Fig. 2 is the tool that a kind of corresponding multi-reservoir of Fig. 1 combines step 110 in the Risk assessment and decision method of Flood Control Dispatch
Body flow diagram.
Specific embodiment
The principle and features of the present invention will be described below with reference to the accompanying drawings, and the given examples are served only to explain the present invention, and
It is non-to be used to limit the scope of the invention.
Embodiment one
A kind of Risk assessment and decision method 100 of multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch, as shown in Figure 1, comprising:
Step 110, the preset a variety of scheduling schemes of starting, so that every kind of scheduling scheme is based on preset a variety of uncertainties
Factor carries out n times operation simulation to multi-reservoir, obtains the maximum of each reservoir under this kind of scheduling scheme and occupies storage capacity sequence；
Step 120 occupies storage capacity sequence based on the maximum of each reservoir under every kind of scheduling scheme, and the reservoir is calculated and exists
Kinds of risks evaluation index under the scheduling scheme；
Step 130, the default weight based on each reservoir and kinds of risks evaluation index calculate multi-reservoir in each scheduling
A variety of integrated risk evaluation indexes under scheme；
Step 140, based on a variety of integrated risk evaluation indexes of the multi-reservoir under each scheduling scheme and improve geneva away from
From TOPSIS method, it is preferred that decision is carried out to a variety of scheduling schemes.
Risk assessment standard and object (reservoir) single defect are only considered for the prior art, the present embodiment provides one kind
Multi-reservoir combines the risk analysis method of Flood Control Dispatch, parsed multi-reservoir joint flood control operation risk to it is a variety of it is uncertain because
The response pattern of element, solves the problems, such as the risk analysis of reservoir regulation for flood control scheme under the influence of a variety of uncertain factors.
The present embodiment considers existing a variety of uncertain factors during Flood Control Dispatch, and merges kinds of risks index,
Kinds of risks index is weighted coupling between each reservoir, parsing multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch to it is multiple it is uncertain because
Element response pattern, from multiple angles accurately portray Flood Control Dispatch during the risk of loss as caused by various uncertain factors
Degree and reservoir operation process variation situation efficiently solve the wind that multiple uncertain factor lower storage reservoir group combines Flood Control Dispatch
Danger quantifies and the technical problem of assessment.
Preferably, step 110 includes:
Step 111, by predetermined analog method, respectively to every kind in preset a variety of uncertain factors it is uncertain because
Element carries out n times stochastic simulation, obtains the uncertain simulated series of the corresponding n group of every kind of uncertain factor, n is positive integer；
Step 112, the preset a variety of scheduling schemes of starting, so that every kind of scheduling scheme is based on various uncertain factors pair
The uncertain simulated series of the n group answered, carry out n times operation simulation to multi-reservoir, obtain each reservoir under this kind of scheduling scheme
Maximum occupies storage capacity sequence.
It should be noted that when carrying out each operation simulation, scheduling scheme uses each uncertain when executing step 112
One group of uncertainty simulated series in the uncertain simulated series of the n group of sexual factor, carry out an operation simulation, carry out n altogether
Secondary operation simulation.
It is the maximum sequence for occupying storage capacity and forming obtained by each operation simulation that maximum, which occupies storage capacity sequence,.
Preferably, a variety of uncertain factors include: prediction error, water level storage capacity, and under let out ability.
Multi-reservoir Flood Control Dispatch process by prediction error, water level storage capacity and under let out the multiple uncertain factor such as ability and influenced
Scheduling result is set deviation occur, so as to cause risk, therefore a variety of uncertain factors include prediction error, water level storage capacity, with
Ability is let out under and, the accuracy of risk analysis can be improved
Preferably, step 111 includes:
By preset Copula analogy method, n times are carried out to prediction error and simulate value, it is corresponding to obtain prediction error
The uncertain simulated series of n group；
It lets out ability under to water level storage capacity by preset Latin hypercube body analogy method respectively and carries out n times simulation pumping
Sample obtains the uncertain simulated series of the corresponding n group of water level storage capacity and lets out the corresponding n group uncertainty simulated series of ability under.
In order to consider the correlation between prediction error, using Copula method simulation flood forcast sequence, and its
Correlation is substantially not present between his uncertain factor, it is believed that be independent variable, therefore it is super vertical that Latin can be respectively adopted
Cube method carries out random sampling to each distribution.
Preferably, the calculation method of the weight of each reservoir are as follows:
Average Annual Runoff and storage capacity based on each reservoir calculate each reservoir using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
Weight.
Preferably, kinds of risks index includes maximum mean value, Conditional Lyapunov ExponentP and the risk entropy for occupying storage capacity.
The present embodiment consider under the influence of a variety of uncertain factors the maximum mean value for occupying storage capacity, Conditional Lyapunov ExponentP and
These three risk indicators of risk entropy weight coupling driving by storage capacity mean value-Conditional Lyapunov ExponentP-risk entropy, to flood control
The risk of scheduling carries out forecast analysis.By establish cover multi-reservoir maximum occupy storage capacity mean value, risk fluctuate situation with
And the multiple risks assessment indicator system of risk of loss degree, can Exact Solutions analysis multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch existing for risk pair
The response pattern of a variety of uncertain factors.
Preferably, in step 120, the meter of kinds of risks evaluation index of this reservoir under the scheduling scheme is calculated
It is as follows to calculate formula:
Maximum occupies the mean value of storage capacityMaximum occupies the Conditional Lyapunov ExponentP of storage capacityMaximum occupies the risk entropy of storage capacity
In formula, xiStorage capacity is occupied to be maximum under i-th operation simulation in the maximum occupancy storage capacity sequence of the reservoir；α is to set
Letter value, value are preset constant；WkMaximum for the reservoir occupies the big maximum occupancy storage capacity of kth in storage capacity sequence；P(Wk) be
WkThe probability of generation, value 1/n；F (x) is maximum occupancy storage capacity sequence corresponding probability of the reservoir under the scheduling scheme
Density function.
By the size of different risk indicators, to assess multi-reservoir and combine joint flood control operation risk, risk indicator value is smaller,
Risk is smaller, conversely, risk is bigger.
Preferably, a variety of integrated risk evaluation indexes include maximum comprehensive mean, the integrated condition risk valence for occupying storage capacity
Value and integrated risk entropy.
Preferably, in step 130, the meter of a variety of integrated risk evaluation indexes of the multi-reservoir under each scheduling scheme is calculated
It is as follows to calculate formula:
The maximum comprehensive mean for occupying storage capacity of multi-reservoirThe maximum of multi-reservoir occupies the comprehensive of storage capacity
Close Conditional Lyapunov ExponentPThe maximum integrated risk entropy for occupying storage capacity of multi-reservoir
In formula,CVaRjAnd HjMaximum mean value, the conditional risk for occupying storage capacity of j-th of reservoir respectively in multi-reservoir
Value and risk entropy；ωjFor the weight of j-th of reservoir；J is the total number of reservoir in multi-reservoir.
It should be noted that a variety of integrated risks assessment based on multi-reservoir under each scheduling scheme refers in step 140
Mark and the TOPSIS method for improving mahalanobis distance, it is preferred to a variety of scheduling schemes progress decision, it may particularly include as follows:
Each scheduling that Risk assessment and decision method based on above-mentioned any multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch obtains
Multiple integrated risk evaluation indexes of scheme lower storage reservoir group construct the decision matrix S of multi-reservoir Flood Control Dispatchm×k, wherein m is to adjust
The number of degree scheme, k are the number of risk indicator；TOPSIS evaluation algorithms and decision based on entropy assessment, improvement mahalanobis distance
Matrix Sm×k, decision is carried out to multiple scheduling schemes.
The set of multiple risk assessment indexs of each scheduling scheme is constituted to be commented comprising m set scheduling scheme, k integrated risk
Estimate the multi-reservoir Flood Control Dispatch decision matrix S of indexm×k。
It indicates are as follows:S=[S1,S2,…,Si,…Sm]T, in formula, SiFor the comprehensive of the i-th sets of plan
Close risk assessment index set.
Under each scheduling scheme obtained using the risk analysis method of above-mentioned any multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch
Multiple integrated risk evaluation indexes of multi-reservoir construct decision matrix, are commented with the TOPSIS using entropy assessment, improvement mahalanobis distance
Valence algorithm, handles decision matrix, and preferably optimal scheduling scheme, the accuracy of raising scheduling scheme selection greatly drop out
The low risk to multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch.
It specifically can be as follows:
(1) to decision matrix Sm×kIn each scheduling scheme risk indicator data carry out dimensionless standardization:
In formula, SijIndicate decision matrix Sm×3In i-th of scheduling scheme, j-th of integrated risk evaluation index value；yijFor mark
Integrated risk evaluation index value after standardization, can must finally standardize decision matrix S* ij=(yij)m×k。
(2) subjective weight is combined using entropy assessment, determines each index comprehensive weight；
According to the definition of entropy, decision matrixJth item integrated risk evaluation index comentropy HjAre as follows:
The entropy weight ω " of risk indicatorjAre as follows:
And
The factor considered in flood decision is more, to avoid weight during program decisions from being distorted, by policymaker's subjectivity
Weights omega 'jIt is combined with the weight that entropy weight determines, obtains the combining weights ω for taking into account subjective weight and objective weightj:
It is final to obtain combining weights ω=(ω1,ω2,…,ωk)T。
(3) the scheme evaluation based on the TOPSIS method for improving mahalanobis distance；
According to the decision matrix S after standardization* ij=(yij)m×n, construct plus-minus ideal solutions S+And S-, expression formula is as follows:
In formula, J+It indicates profit evaluation model property set (being the bigger the better), J-It indicates cost type property set (the smaller the better).
Then index set is after i-th set of scheduling scheme to standardizationTo the mahalanobis distance of plus-minus ideal solutionsIs defined as:
In formula, W=diag (ω1,ω2,...,ωk) it is weight matrix, wherein ω1,ω2,...,ωkFor each integrated risk
Evaluation index weight；Covariance matrix of the Ω between each integrated risk evaluation index.
Finally inquire into the relatively positive ideal solution approach degree vector of each scheme for merging more integrated risk evaluation index characteristics:
Each scheme precedence is counted from big to small according to the relative similarity degree of calculated different reservoir storage allocation schemes, and precedence is got over
It is preceding, represent that the scheduling scheme is better, the last best reservoir storage allocation scheme for preferably going out multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch.
For example, with Upper Yangtze River multi-reservoir, (Jinsha jiang River middle reaches theatre, dragon opening, is drawn and kwan-yin to Shandong A Hai, Jin Anqiao
Rock reservoir, Yalongjiang River Jinping I and Ertan reservoir, Jinsha jiang River downstream small stream Luo Du and Burner zone reservoir, Ming River Dadu River Pubugou Project
Reservoir, Jia Lingjiang River Tingzikou Reservoir, Wujiang Goupitan reservoir) and the joint Flood Control Dispatch of Three Gorges Reservoir for, consider runoff it is pre-
Report error, water level storage capacity and under let out the uncertain factors such as ability, the a-hundred-year design flood of different Typical Years is substituted into different
In reservoir storage allocation scheme (different scheduling schemes), using mean value, CVaR, risk entropy index evaluation multi-reservoir flood control operation risk,
It is preferred that decision is carried out to multi-reservoir difference reservoir storage allocation scheme based on the TOPSIS method for improving mahalanobis distance.
By taking modular design flood in 1998 as an example, as shown in table 1,7 flood control results of scheme are optimal, and preferred embodiment is regulated and stored lower more
Secondary simulation multi-reservoir come into operation total storage capacity with single library planning library group reserve storage capacity compared to reduction 62.446 hundred million m3, subtract
Lack 42.77%, Jingjiang is not necessarily to flood diversion, and city Ling Ji is averaged excess magnanimity as 50.44 hundred million m3, for a-hundred-year design in 1998
Flood, the program give full play to Cascade Reservoirs flooding action.Meanwhile the corresponding optimal storage capacity point of different Typical Year design floods
It is also different with scheme.As shown in table 2 below, from the point of view of in conjunction with each scheme schedules superiority and inferiority precedence information, scheme 5 and 6 precedence of scheme and most
It is low, show that this two sets of plan can effectively resist various types of floods under the influence of considering uncertain factor.Policymaker answers
Optimization is adjusted to scheduling scheme for different types of water.
Research method realizes flood season Flood Control Dispatch using Uncertain Stochastic simulation-risk assessment-decision in the face of risk as main shaft
The multivariant fuzzy evaluation of multiple target and rationally preferably, from basin general safety angle, has evaluated multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch
The potential risk of each scheduling scheme provides decision support for multi-reservoir safe and stable operation.
The different reservoir storage allocation project risk analyses of table 1 and the result of decision
Each scheme result of decision of the different Typical Years of table 2
Embodiment two
A kind of storage medium is stored with instruction in storage medium, when computer reads described instruction, executes computer
The Risk assessment and decision method of any multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch as described in above-described embodiment one.
Related art scheme is as in the first embodiment, details are not described herein.
The foregoing is merely presently preferred embodiments of the present invention, is not intended to limit the invention, it is all in spirit of the invention and
Within principle, any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement and so on be should all be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of Risk assessment and decision method of multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch characterized by comprising
Step 1, the preset a variety of scheduling schemes of starting so that every kind of scheduling scheme be based on it is preset it is a variety of it is uncertain because
Element carries out n times operation simulation to multi-reservoir, obtains the maximum of each reservoir under this kind of scheduling scheme and occupies storage capacity sequence；
Step 2, the maximum occupancy storage capacity sequence based on reservoir each under scheduling scheme described in every kind, are calculated the reservoir
Kinds of risks evaluation index under the scheduling scheme；
Step 3, the weight based on each reservoir and the kinds of risks evaluation index calculate the multi-reservoir in each institute
State a variety of integrated risk evaluation indexes under scheduling scheme；
Step 4, based on a variety of integrated risk evaluation indexes of the multi-reservoir under each scheduling scheme and improvement
It is preferred to carry out decision to a variety of scheduling schemes for mahalanobis distance TOPSIS method.
2. a kind of Risk assessment and decision method of multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch according to claim 1, feature exist
In the step 1 includes:
Step 1.1, by predetermined analog method, respectively to every kind in preset a variety of uncertain factors it is described it is uncertain because
Element carries out n times stochastic simulation, obtains the corresponding n group uncertainty simulated series of every kind of uncertain factor, n is positive whole
Number；
Step 1.2, the preset a variety of scheduling schemes of starting so that every kind of scheduling scheme be based on it is various it is described it is uncertain because
The uncertain simulated series of the corresponding n group of element, carry out n times operation simulation to multi-reservoir, obtain this kind of scheduling scheme
Under the maximum of each reservoir occupy storage capacity sequence.
3. a kind of Risk assessment and decision method of multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch according to claim 2, feature exist
In, a variety of uncertain factors include: prediction error, water level storage capacity, and under let out ability.
4. a kind of Risk assessment and decision method of multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch according to claim 3, feature exist
In the step 1.1 includes:
By preset Copula analogy method, n times stochastic simulation is carried out to the prediction error, obtains the prediction error pair
The uncertain simulated series of the n group answered；
Respectively by preset Latin hypercube body analogy method to the water level storage capacity and it is described under let out ability carry out n times it is random
Simulation, obtain the uncertain simulated series of the corresponding n group of the water level storage capacity and it is described under let out the corresponding n group uncertainty of ability
Simulated series.
5. a kind of Risk assessment and decision method of multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch according to claim 1, feature exist
In the calculation method of the weight of each reservoir are as follows:
Each water is calculated using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) based on the Average Annual Runoff and storage capacity of each reservoir
The weight in library.
6. a kind of Risk assessment and decision method of multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch according to any one of claims 1 to 5,
It is characterized in that, the kinds of risks index includes maximum mean value, Conditional Lyapunov ExponentP and the risk entropy for occupying storage capacity.
7. a kind of Risk assessment and decision method of multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch according to claim 6, feature exist
In, in the step 2, the calculation formula of this reservoir the is calculated kinds of risks evaluation index under the scheduling scheme
It is as follows:
Maximum occupies the mean value of storage capacityMaximum occupies the Conditional Lyapunov ExponentP of storage capacityMaximum occupies the risk entropy of storage capacity
In formula, xiFor the maximum occupancy storage capacity under i-th operation simulation in the maximum occupancy storage capacity sequence of the reservoir；α is
The value of the confidence, value are preset constant；WkStorage capacity is occupied for the maximum big maximum of kth in storage capacity sequence that occupies of the reservoir；P
(Wk) it is WkThe probability of generation, value 1/n；F (x) is the maximum occupancy storage capacity sequence of the reservoir under the scheduling scheme
Corresponding probability density function.
8. a kind of Risk assessment and decision method of multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch according to claim 6, feature exist
In a variety of integrated risk evaluation indexes include maximum comprehensive mean, integrated condition venture worth and the synthesis for occupying storage capacity
Risk entropy.
9. a kind of Risk assessment and decision method of multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch according to claim 8, feature exist
In, in the step 3, a variety of integrated risk evaluation indexes of the calculating multi-reservoir under each scheduling scheme
Calculation formula is as follows:
The maximum comprehensive mean for occupying storage capacity of the multi-reservoirThe maximum of the multi-reservoir
Occupy the integrated condition venture worth of storage capacityThe maximum of the multi-reservoir occupies the comprehensive of storage capacity
Close risk entropy
In formula,CVaRjAnd HjMaximum mean value, the condition for occupying storage capacity of j-th of reservoir in the respectively described multi-reservoir
Venture worth and risk entropy；ωjFor the weight of j-th of reservoir；J is the total number of reservoir in the multi-reservoir.
10. a kind of storage medium, which is characterized in that instruction is stored in the storage medium, when computer reads described instruction
When, so that the computer is executed a kind of risk assessment of multi-reservoir joint Flood Control Dispatch as described in any one of claim 1 to 9
With decision-making technique.
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