CN110033164B - Risk assessment and decision method for reservoir group combined flood control scheduling - Google Patents

Risk assessment and decision method for reservoir group combined flood control scheduling Download PDF

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CN110033164B
CN110033164B CN201910161465.8A CN201910161465A CN110033164B CN 110033164 B CN110033164 B CN 110033164B CN 201910161465 A CN201910161465 A CN 201910161465A CN 110033164 B CN110033164 B CN 110033164B
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周建中
陈璐
王权森
黄康迪
戴领
查港
骆光磊
杨鑫
曾昱
卢程伟
顿晓晗
金倩芳
周华艳
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Abstract

The invention relates to a risk analysis method and a decision method for reservoir group combined flood control scheduling, which comprise the following steps: each scheduling scheme is based on multiple uncertainty factors, n times of simulation scheduling is carried out on the reservoir group, and the maximum occupied storage capacity sequence of each reservoir under the scheduling scheme is obtained; calculating various risk evaluation indexes of each reservoir under each scheduling scheme based on the maximum occupied storage capacity sequence of each reservoir; calculating various comprehensive risk evaluation indexes of the reservoir group under each scheduling scheme based on the weight of each reservoir and various risk evaluation indexes; and performing decision optimization on the various dispatching schemes based on various comprehensive risk evaluation indexes of the reservoir group under the various dispatching schemes. According to the invention, multiple uncertain factors existing in the flood control dispatching process are considered, multiple risk indexes are fused, the multiple risk indexes are subjected to weighted coupling among all reservoirs, the response rule of reservoir group combined flood control dispatching on the multiple uncertain factors is analyzed, and the accuracy of risk analysis is effectively improved.

Description

Risk assessment and decision method for reservoir group combined flood control scheduling
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of flood control dispatching, in particular to a risk assessment and decision method for reservoir group combined flood control dispatching.
Background
Reservoir group joint flood control scheduling is one of important technical means for flood control and disaster reduction in drainage basins. Along with the construction and commissioning of large reservoirs in the drainage basin, the flood control safety of the reservoirs and the downstream flood control points can be effectively ensured through the joint dispatching of upstream and downstream reservoir groups. The reservoir flood control dispatching process is influenced by multiple uncertain factors such as an incoming water process, a forecast error, a reservoir capacity and a discharge capacity, and is a complex decision problem with multiple stages, multiple targets, multiple levels and incomplete information.
Most of the existing reservoir scheduling risk analysis and decision methods only use a single reservoir as a research object, risk decision indexes (risk rate and the like) of the existing reservoir scheduling risk analysis and decision methods lack measures for the expected loss caused by the occurrence of risks (the water level or the flow exceeds a safety threshold) of a reservoir or a flood control point, and the possible fluctuation conditions of the water level of the reservoir and the flow of the flood control point in the scheduling process cannot be described. Therefore, the existing method cannot accurately evaluate the possible risks in the scheduling process, so that the decision optimization is carried out on a plurality of feasible scheduling schemes. How to carry out omnibearing and multi-angle risk assessment and decision-making on the combined flood control scheduling scheme of the large-scale reservoir group in the drainage basin under the influence of multiple uncertainties is a technical problem to be solved urgently.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a risk assessment and decision method for reservoir group combined flood control dispatching, which is used for solving the technical problem of low risk analysis accuracy in reservoir group combined flood control dispatching in the prior art.
The technical scheme for solving the technical problems is as follows: a risk assessment and decision method for reservoir group combined flood control scheduling comprises the following steps:
step 1, starting multiple preset scheduling schemes, and performing n times of simulated scheduling on a reservoir group according to each scheduling scheme based on multiple preset uncertainty factors to obtain a maximum occupied storage capacity sequence of each reservoir under the scheduling scheme;
step 2, based on the maximum occupied storage capacity sequence of each reservoir under each scheduling scheme, calculating to obtain multiple risk assessment indexes of the reservoir under the scheduling scheme;
step 3, calculating a plurality of comprehensive risk assessment indexes of the reservoir group under each scheduling scheme based on the preset weight of each reservoir and the plurality of risk assessment indexes;
and 4, carrying out decision optimization on the multiple scheduling schemes based on the multiple comprehensive risk assessment indexes of the reservoir group under each scheduling scheme and an improved Mahalanobis distance TOPSIS method.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: according to the invention, multiple uncertain factors existing in the flood control dispatching process are considered, multiple risk indexes are fused, the multiple risk indexes are subjected to weighted coupling among all reservoirs, the response rule of the reservoir group combined flood control dispatching on the multiple uncertain factors is analyzed, the risk loss degree and the fluctuation situation of the reservoir dispatching process caused by the various uncertain factors in the flood control dispatching process are accurately depicted from multiple angles, the technical problems of risk quantification and evaluation of the reservoir group combined flood control dispatching under the multiple uncertain factors are effectively solved, the accuracy of risk analysis under the reservoir group combined flood control dispatching is improved, and the potential safety hazard of the reservoir group combined flood control dispatching can be greatly reduced.
On the basis of the technical scheme, the invention can be further improved as follows.
Further, the step 1 comprises:
step 1.1, respectively carrying out n times of random simulation on each uncertainty factor in multiple predetermined uncertainty factors by using a preset simulation method to obtain n groups of uncertainty simulation sequences corresponding to each uncertainty factor, wherein n is a positive integer;
step 1.2, starting multiple preset scheduling schemes, and performing n times of simulation scheduling on the reservoir group according to the n groups of uncertainty simulation sequences corresponding to the uncertainty factors in each scheduling scheme to obtain the maximum occupied storage capacity sequence of each reservoir under the scheduling scheme.
Further, the plurality of uncertainty factors includes: forecast error, reservoir capacity, and letdown capability.
The invention has the further beneficial effects that: the reservoir flood control scheduling process is influenced by multiple uncertain factors such as forecasting errors, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity, so that the scheduling result is deviated, and risks are caused, and therefore the accuracy of risk analysis can be improved due to the multiple uncertain factors including the forecasting errors, the reservoir capacity and the discharge capacity.
Further, the step 1.1 comprises:
performing n times of simulation value on the prediction error through a preset Copula simulation method to obtain n groups of uncertainty simulation sequences corresponding to the prediction error;
and respectively carrying out n times of analog sampling on the water level reservoir capacity and the letdown capacity by a preset Latin hypercube analog method to obtain n groups of uncertainty analog sequences corresponding to the water level reservoir capacity and n groups of uncertainty analog sequences corresponding to the letdown capacity.
Further, the calculation method of the weight of each reservoir is as follows:
and calculating the weight of each reservoir by adopting an analytic hierarchy process based on the annual average runoff and the flood control storage capacity of each reservoir.
Further, the multiple risk indicators include a mean value of a maximum occupied storage capacity, a conditional risk value and a risk entropy.
The invention has the further beneficial effects that: according to the method, three risk indexes, namely the average value of the maximum occupied storage capacity, the conditional risk value and the risk entropy, are considered under the influence of various uncertain factors, and the risk of flood control scheduling is subjected to prediction analysis through weighted coupling driving of the average value of the flood control storage capacity, the conditional risk value and the risk entropy. By establishing a multiple risk evaluation index system covering the maximum flood control storage capacity mean value occupied by the reservoir group, the risk fluctuation situation and the risk loss degree, the response rule of the risk existing in the reservoir group combined flood control scheduling to various uncertain factors can be accurately analyzed.
Further, in the step 2, the calculation formula for obtaining the multiple risk assessment indexes of the reservoir under the dispatching scheme through calculation is as follows:
mean value of maximum occupied storage capacity
Figure BDA0001984788650000041
Conditional risk value of maximum occupied storage capacity
Figure BDA0001984788650000042
m ═ INT (n ═ 1- α)); risk entropy of maximum occupied storage capacity
Figure BDA0001984788650000043
In the formula, xiSimulating and scheduling the maximum occupied storage capacity under the ith simulation in the maximum occupied storage capacity sequence of the reservoir; alpha is a confidence value and takes a value as a preset constant; wkThe largest occupied storage capacity of the kth in the largest occupied storage capacity sequence of the reservoir; p (W)k) Is WkThe occurrence probability is 1/n; and f (x) is a probability density function corresponding to the maximum occupied storage capacity sequence of the reservoir under the dispatching scheme.
Further, the multiple comprehensive risk assessment indexes comprise a comprehensive mean value of the maximum occupied storage capacity, a comprehensive condition risk value and a comprehensive risk entropy.
Further, in step 3, the calculation formula for calculating the multiple comprehensive risk assessment indicators of the reservoir group under each scheduling scheme is as follows:
a comprehensive average value of the maximum occupied storage capacity of the reservoir group
Figure BDA0001984788650000051
Comprehensive conditional risk value of said maximum occupied storage capacity of said reservoir group
Figure BDA0001984788650000052
Comprehensive risk entropy of the maximum occupied storage capacity of the reservoir group
Figure BDA0001984788650000053
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0001984788650000054
CVaRjand HjRespectively is the mean value, the conditional risk value and the risk entropy of the maximum occupied storage capacity of the jth reservoir in the reservoir group; omegajThe weight of the jth reservoir; j is the total number of reservoirs in the reservoir group.
The invention also provides a storage medium, wherein the storage medium is stored with instructions, and when the instructions are read by a computer, the computer is enabled to execute any one of the above risk assessment and decision-making methods of reservoir group combined flood control scheduling.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a block flow diagram of a risk assessment and decision method for reservoir group combined flood control scheduling according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a block diagram illustrating a specific flow of step 110 in the risk assessment and decision method for reservoir group combined flood control scheduling in fig. 1.
Detailed Description
The principles and features of this invention are described below in conjunction with the following drawings, which are set forth by way of illustration only and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention.
Example one
A risk assessment and decision method 100 for reservoir group combined flood control scheduling, as shown in fig. 1, includes:
step 110, starting multiple preset scheduling schemes, and performing n times of simulated scheduling on the reservoir group according to each scheduling scheme based on multiple preset uncertainty factors to obtain a maximum occupied storage capacity sequence of each reservoir under the scheduling scheme;
step 120, calculating to obtain multiple risk assessment indexes of the reservoir under each scheduling scheme based on the maximum occupied storage capacity sequence of each reservoir under each scheduling scheme;
step 130, calculating various comprehensive risk assessment indexes of the reservoir group under each scheduling scheme based on the preset weight and various risk assessment indexes of each reservoir;
and step 140, carrying out decision optimization on the various dispatching schemes based on various comprehensive risk assessment indexes of the reservoir group under various dispatching schemes and an improved Mahalanobis distance TOPSIS method.
Aiming at the defect that only the risk evaluation standard and the object (reservoir) are single in the prior art, the embodiment provides the risk analysis method for reservoir group combined flood control dispatching, the response rule of the reservoir group combined flood control dispatching risk to multiple uncertain factors is analyzed, and the problem of risk analysis of the reservoir flood control dispatching scheme influenced by the multiple uncertain factors is solved.
In the embodiment, multiple uncertain factors existing in the flood control dispatching process are considered, multiple risk indexes are fused, the multiple risk indexes are subjected to weighted coupling among all reservoirs, the response rule of the reservoir group combined flood control dispatching on the multiple uncertain factors is analyzed, the risk loss degree and the fluctuation situation of the reservoir dispatching process caused by the various uncertain factors in the flood control dispatching process are accurately described from multiple angles, and the technical problem of risk quantification and assessment of the reservoir group combined flood control dispatching under the multiple uncertain factors is effectively solved.
Preferably, step 110 includes:
step 111, respectively carrying out n times of random simulation on each uncertainty factor in multiple predetermined uncertainty factors by using a predetermined simulation method to obtain n groups of uncertainty simulation sequences corresponding to each uncertainty factor, wherein n is a positive integer;
and 112, starting multiple preset scheduling schemes, and performing n times of simulation scheduling on the reservoir group on the basis of n groups of uncertainty simulation sequences corresponding to various uncertainty factors in each scheduling scheme to obtain the maximum occupied storage capacity sequence of each reservoir under the scheduling scheme.
It should be noted that, when performing step 112, in each simulation scheduling, the scheduling scheme performs one simulation scheduling using one uncertainty simulation sequence of the n sets of uncertainty simulation sequences for each uncertainty factor, and performs n simulation scheduling in total.
The maximum occupied storage capacity sequence is a sequence consisting of maximum occupied storage capacities obtained by each simulation scheduling.
Preferably, the plurality of uncertainty factors includes: forecast error, reservoir capacity, and letdown capability.
The reservoir flood control scheduling process is influenced by multiple uncertainty factors such as forecasting errors, reservoir capacity and discharge capacity to cause the scheduling result to deviate, so that risks are caused, and therefore the accuracy of risk analysis can be improved due to the fact that the multiple uncertainty factors comprise the forecasting errors, the reservoir capacity and the discharge capacity
Preferably, step 111 comprises:
performing n times of simulation value on the prediction error through a preset Copula simulation method to obtain n groups of uncertainty simulation sequences corresponding to the prediction error;
and respectively carrying out n times of analog sampling on the water level reservoir capacity and the letdown capacity by a preset Latin hypercube analog method to obtain n groups of uncertainty analog sequences corresponding to the water level reservoir capacity and n groups of uncertainty analog sequences corresponding to the letdown capacity.
In order to consider the correlation between the forecast errors, a Copula method is adopted to simulate a flood forecast error sequence, and other uncertainty factors basically have no correlation and can be considered as independent variables, so that the distribution can be randomly sampled by adopting a latin hypercube method respectively.
Preferably, the calculation method of the weight of each reservoir is as follows:
and calculating the weight of each reservoir by adopting an analytic hierarchy process based on the annual average runoff and the flood control storage capacity of each reservoir.
Preferably, the plurality of risk indicators include a mean of maximum occupied storage capacity, conditional risk value and risk entropy.
In the embodiment, three risk indexes, namely the average value, the conditional risk value and the risk entropy of the maximum occupied storage capacity are considered under the influence of various uncertain factors, and the risk of flood control scheduling is subjected to prediction analysis through weighted coupling driving of the average value, the conditional risk value and the risk entropy of the flood control storage capacity. By establishing a multiple risk evaluation index system covering the maximum flood control storage capacity mean value occupied by the reservoir group, the risk fluctuation situation and the risk loss degree, the response rule of the risk existing in the reservoir group combined flood control scheduling to various uncertain factors can be accurately analyzed.
Preferably, in step 120, the calculation formula of the risk assessment indicators of the reservoir under the scheduling scheme is calculated as follows:
mean value of maximum occupied storage capacity
Figure BDA0001984788650000081
Conditional risk value of maximum occupied storage capacity
Figure BDA0001984788650000082
Risk entropy of maximum occupied storage capacity
Figure BDA0001984788650000083
In the formula, xiThe maximum occupied storage capacity under the ith simulation scheduling in the maximum occupied storage capacity sequence of the reservoir is obtained; alpha is a confidence value and takes a value as a preset constant; wkThe largest occupied storage capacity of the kth in the largest occupied storage capacity sequence of the reservoir is obtained; p (W)k) Is WkThe occurrence probability is 1/n; and f (x) is a probability density function corresponding to the maximum occupied storage capacity sequence of the reservoir under the dispatching scheme.
And evaluating the risk of the reservoir group joint combined flood control dispatching through the sizes of different risk indexes, wherein the smaller the risk index value is, the smaller the risk is, and otherwise, the larger the risk is.
Preferably, the multiple comprehensive risk assessment indexes comprise a comprehensive mean value of the maximum occupied storage capacity, a comprehensive condition risk value and a comprehensive risk entropy.
Preferably, in step 130, the calculation formula for calculating the multiple comprehensive risk assessment indicators of the reservoir group under each scheduling scheme is as follows:
comprehensive average value of maximum occupied storage capacity of reservoir group
Figure BDA0001984788650000091
Comprehensive condition risk value of maximum occupied storage capacity of reservoir group
Figure BDA0001984788650000092
Comprehensive risk entropy of maximum occupied storage capacity of reservoir group
Figure BDA0001984788650000093
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure BDA0001984788650000094
CVaRjand HjRespectively representing the mean value, the conditional risk value and the risk entropy of the maximum occupied storage capacity of the jth reservoir in the reservoir group; omegajThe weight of the jth reservoir; j is the total number of reservoirs in the reservoir group.
It should be noted that, in step 140, based on the various comprehensive risk assessment indexes of the reservoir group under each scheduling scheme and the TOPSIS method for improving mahalanobis distance, the decision optimization for the various scheduling schemes may specifically include the following:
based on a plurality of comprehensive risk evaluation indexes of the reservoir group under each scheduling scheme obtained by the risk evaluation and decision method of any one of the reservoir group combined flood control scheduling, a decision matrix S of the reservoir group flood control scheduling is constructedm×kWherein m is the number of scheduling schemes, and k is the number of risk indicators; TOPSIS evaluation algorithm and decision matrix S based on entropy weight method and improved Mahalanobis distancem×kA decision is made for multiple scheduling schemes.
Multiple risk ratings for various scheduling schemesThe set of estimation indexes forms a reservoir group flood control scheduling decision matrix S containing m sets of scheduling schemes and k comprehensive risk estimation indexesm×k。
Expressed as:
Figure BDA0001984788650000101
S＝[S1,S2,…,Si,…Sm]Tin the formula, SiIs a comprehensive risk assessment index set of the ith scheme.
The method comprises the steps of obtaining a plurality of comprehensive risk evaluation indexes of the reservoir group under each scheduling scheme by adopting any one of the risk analysis methods for reservoir group combined flood control scheduling, constructing a decision matrix, and processing the decision matrix by utilizing an entropy weight method and a TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to similarity) evaluation algorithm for improving Mahalanobis distance, so as to preferably select the optimal scheduling scheme, improve the accuracy of the selection of the scheduling scheme and greatly reduce the risk of reservoir group combined flood control scheduling.
The method specifically comprises the following steps:
(1) to decision matrix Sm×kCarrying out dimensionless standardization treatment on the risk index data of each scheduling scheme:
Figure BDA0001984788650000102
in the formula, SijRepresenting a decision matrix Sm×3The jth comprehensive risk assessment index value of the ith scheduling scheme; y isijA standardized decision matrix S can be finally obtained for the standardized comprehensive risk evaluation index value* ij＝(yij)m×k。
(2) Determining the comprehensive weight of each index by combining an entropy weight method and subjective weight;
according to the definition of entropy, deciding matrix
Figure BDA0001984788650000103
The information entropy H of the jth comprehensive risk assessment indexjComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0001984788650000104
entropy weight omega of risk indicatorjComprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0001984788650000105
and is
Figure BDA0001984788650000106
More factors are considered in flood control decision, and in order to avoid weight distortion in the scheme decision process, the decision maker is subjected to subjective weight omega'jCombining with the weight determined by the entropy weight to obtain a combined weight omega giving consideration to both subjective weight and objective weightj：
Figure BDA0001984788650000111
The final combined weight ω ═ ω (ω ═ ω)1,ω2,…,ωk)T。
(3) Evaluation of the protocol based on the toposis method of modified mahalanobis distance;
according to the standardized decision matrix S* ij＝(yij)m×nConstruction of a positive and negative ideal solution S+And S-The expression is as follows:
Figure BDA0001984788650000112
in the formula, J+Representing a benefit type attribute set (larger is better), J-Representing a cost-type set of attributes (smaller is better).
The index set after the ith set of scheduling schemes reaches the standardization is
Figure BDA0001984788650000113
Mahalanobis distance to positive and negative ideal solutions
Figure BDA0001984788650000114
Is defined as:
Figure BDA0001984788650000115
Figure BDA0001984788650000116
wherein W is diag (ω)1,ω2,...,ωk) Is a weight matrix, where ω is1,ω2,...,ωkEvaluating the index weight for each comprehensive risk; and omega is a covariance matrix among the comprehensive risk assessment indexes.
And finally, solving the corresponding ideal closeness vector of each scheme fusing the characteristics of the multiple comprehensive risk assessment indexes:
Figure BDA0001984788650000117
and counting the level of each scheme from large to small according to the calculated relative closeness of different reservoir capacity distribution schemes, wherein the higher the level is, the better the scheduling scheme is, and finally, the optimal reservoir capacity distribution scheme of the reservoir group combined flood control scheduling is selected preferably.
For example, taking the united flood control scheduling of the upstream reservoir group of the Yangtze river (the first-class and second-beach reservoirs of Jinshajiang river creeper, Yazheng river creeper, the downstream river ludu and Jiaba reservoirs of Jinshajiang river, the waterfall ditch reservoir of Ming river, Jialing river pavilion sublevel reservoir and Wujiang river skin beach reservoir) and the three gorge reservoir as an example, considering uncertainty factors such as runoff forecast error, water level reservoir capacity and discharge capacity, substituting different typical annual meeting design floods into different reservoir capacity distribution schemes (different scheduling schemes), evaluating the flood control scheduling risk of the reservoir group by adopting mean value, CVaR and risk entropy indexes, and preferably making decisions on the different reservoir capacity distribution schemes of the reservoir group based on the TOPSIS method for improving the Mahalanobis distance.
In 1998For a typical design flood, as shown in table 1, the flood control effect of the scheme 7 is optimal, and the total flood control capacity of multiple-time simulation reservoir groups in use under regulation and storage of the optimal scheme is reduced by 62.446 hundred million m compared with the reserved flood control capacity of a single-reservoir planning reservoir group3The reduction is 42.77 percent, the river does not need flood diversion, and the average excess flood of the soil rock is 50.44 hundred million m3Aiming at designing flood in hundred years in 1998, the scheme fully plays the flood control role of the cascade reservoir group. Meanwhile, the optimal storage capacity distribution schemes corresponding to flood designed in different typical years are different. As shown in table 2 below, in combination with the information of the good and bad bit numbers of each scheme scheduling, the sum of the bit numbers of the scheme 5 and the scheme 6 is the lowest, which indicates that the two schemes can effectively resist various types of floods under the influence of uncertainty factors. The decision maker should optimize the scheduling scheme for different types of incoming water.
The research method takes uncertainty random simulation, risk evaluation and risk decision as main axes, realizes fuzzy evaluation and reasonable optimization of flood season flood control dispatching multi-target multi-scheme, evaluates potential risks of each dispatching scheme of reservoir group combined flood control dispatching from the perspective of integral safety of a drainage basin, and provides decision support for safe and stable operation of the reservoir group.
TABLE 1 Risk analysis and decision results for different storage allocation schemes
Figure BDA0001984788650000131
TABLE 2 decision results of different typical year schemes
Figure BDA0001984788650000132
Example two
A storage medium having instructions stored therein, which when read by a computer, cause the computer to execute any one of the above-mentioned risk assessment and decision-making methods for reservoir group combined flood control scheduling.
The related technical solution is the same as the first embodiment, and is not described herein again.
The above description is only for the purpose of illustrating the preferred embodiments of the present invention and is not to be construed as limiting the invention, and any modifications, equivalents, improvements and the like that fall within the spirit and principle of the present invention are intended to be included therein.

Claims (9)

1. A risk assessment and decision method for reservoir group combined flood control scheduling is characterized by comprising the following steps:
step 1, starting multiple preset scheduling schemes, and performing n times of simulated scheduling on a reservoir group according to each scheduling scheme based on multiple preset uncertainty factors to obtain a maximum occupied storage capacity sequence of each reservoir under the scheduling scheme;
step 2, based on the maximum occupied storage capacity sequence of each reservoir under each scheduling scheme, calculating to obtain multiple risk assessment indexes of the reservoir under the scheduling scheme;
step 3, calculating a plurality of comprehensive risk assessment indexes of the reservoir group under each scheduling scheme based on the weight of each reservoir and the plurality of risk assessment indexes;
step 4, carrying out decision optimization on the various dispatching schemes based on the various comprehensive risk assessment indexes of the reservoir group under the dispatching schemes and an improved Mahalanobis distance TOPSIS method, wherein the improved Mahalanobis distance TOPSIS method is a TOPSIS method based on an improved weighted generalized Mahalanobis distance;
the step 1 comprises the following steps:
step 1.1, respectively carrying out n times of random simulation on each uncertainty factor in multiple predetermined uncertainty factors by using a preset simulation method to obtain n groups of uncertainty simulation sequences corresponding to each uncertainty factor, wherein n is a positive integer;
step 1.2, starting multiple preset scheduling schemes, and performing n times of simulation scheduling on the reservoir group according to the n groups of uncertainty simulation sequences corresponding to the uncertainty factors in each scheduling scheme to obtain the maximum occupied storage capacity sequence of each reservoir under the scheduling scheme.
2. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the uncertainty factors include: forecast error, reservoir capacity, and letdown capability.
3. The method for risk assessment and decision-making for reservoir group combined flood control dispatching according to claim 2, wherein the step 1.1 comprises:
carrying out random simulation on the prediction error for n times by a preset Copula simulation method to obtain n groups of uncertainty simulation sequences corresponding to the prediction error;
respectively carrying out n times of random simulation on the water level reservoir capacity and the letdown capacity by a preset Latin hypercube simulation method to obtain n groups of uncertainty simulation sequences corresponding to the water level reservoir capacity and n groups of uncertainty simulation sequences corresponding to the letdown capacity.
4. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the calculation method of the weight of each reservoir comprises:
and calculating the weight of each reservoir by adopting an analytic hierarchy process based on the annual average runoff and the flood control storage capacity of each reservoir.
5. The risk assessment and decision method for reservoir group combined flood control dispatching according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the multiple risk indicators comprise a mean value of maximum occupied storage capacity, conditional risk value and risk entropy.
6. The method as claimed in claim 5, wherein in step 2, the calculation formula for obtaining the risk assessment indicators of the reservoir under the scheduling scheme is as follows:
mean value of maximum occupied storage capacity
Figure FDA0003011556920000021
Conditional risk value of maximum occupied storage capacity
Figure FDA0003011556920000022
m ═ INT (n ═ 1- α)); risk entropy of maximum occupied storage capacity
Figure FDA0003011556920000023
In the formula, xiSimulating and scheduling the maximum occupied storage capacity under the ith simulation in the maximum occupied storage capacity sequence of the reservoir; alpha is a confidence value and takes a value as a preset constant; wkThe largest occupied storage capacity of the kth in the largest occupied storage capacity sequence of the reservoir; p (W)k) Is WkThe occurrence probability is 1/n; and f (x) is a probability density function corresponding to the maximum occupied storage capacity sequence of the reservoir under the dispatching scheme.
7. The method as claimed in claim 5, wherein the multiple comprehensive risk assessment indexes include a comprehensive mean value of maximum occupied storage capacity, a comprehensive conditional risk value and a comprehensive risk entropy.
8. The method as claimed in claim 7, wherein in the step 3, the calculation formula for calculating the multiple comprehensive risk assessment indicators of the reservoir group under each scheduling scheme is as follows:
a comprehensive average value of the maximum occupied storage capacity of the reservoir group
Figure FDA0003011556920000031
Comprehensive conditional risk value of said maximum occupied storage capacity of said reservoir group
Figure FDA0003011556920000032
Comprehensive risk entropy of the maximum occupied storage capacity of the reservoir group
Figure FDA0003011556920000033
In the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
Figure FDA0003011556920000034
CVaRjand HjRespectively is the mean value, the conditional risk value and the risk entropy of the maximum occupied storage capacity of the jth reservoir in the reservoir group; omegajThe weight of the jth reservoir; j is the total number of reservoirs in the reservoir group.
9. A storage medium having instructions stored therein, which when read by a computer, cause the computer to execute a risk assessment and decision method for reservoir group integrated flood control scheduling according to any one of claims 1 to 8.
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