CN106779185A - A kind of emergency traffic command methods based on harmful influence diffusion model - Google Patents

A kind of emergency traffic command methods based on harmful influence diffusion model Download PDF

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CN106779185A
CN106779185A CN201611082590.2A CN201611082590A CN106779185A CN 106779185 A CN106779185 A CN 106779185A CN 201611082590 A CN201611082590 A CN 201611082590A CN 106779185 A CN106779185 A CN 106779185A
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harmful influence
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孟曦
师晓敏
奚加荣
芮晓玲
彭凤强
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Jiangsu Posts and Telecommunications Planning and Designing Institute Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of emergency traffic command methods based on harmful influence diffusion model, including:Step 1, collection event information;Step 2, the pollution situation to harmful influence car accident place periphery is predicted early warning, forms environmental pollution integrated forecasting and analysis model, predicts flowing situation, diffusion zone and the evacuation path of polluter;The other information of step 3, the early warning information that computer sim- ulation is obtained, coverage, developing state, and event supplies analysis decision by representing of being unified of GIS map, is most preferably directed rescue work prediction scheme;Step 4, carries out scheduling, information issue and the traffic guidance shunting of emergency resources;Step 5, maintenance preservation, analysis and statistics are carried out to event case.

Description

A kind of emergency traffic command methods based on harmful influence diffusion model
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of emergency traffic command methods based on harmful influence diffusion model.
Background technology
In recent years, hazardous chemical road transport is continuously increased with the fast development of China's chemical industry, according to statistics, The harmful influence of China nearly 90% is needed by Freeway Transport, and the annual road transport dangerous cargo of China is at 200,000,000 tons in recent years Left and right, wherein:Up to hundreds of thousands ton, up to 100,000,000 tons, harmful influence logistics has been gradually formed inflammable, explosive oil product class hypertoxic cyanide.Greatly Inflammable, explosive, corrosive material of amount is transported in China, etesian equivalent to the dangerous matter sources for forming flowing Harmful influence shipping accident number is in rising trend, causes thousands injures and deaths, and large area environmental pollution.The difficulty of transportation management Increase severely, Freeway Transport situation of production is more and more severeer.
Harmful influence road transport task constantly increases so that this " flowing bomb " threaten the people's at any time The security of the lives and property, after accident occurs, it is necessary to take effective rescue countermeasures to reduce harm, but China tackles burst accident Emergency management and rescue mechanism and rescue countermeasures be but far from keeping up with the step that harmful influence road transport is developed rapidly, exist many Deficiency, it is low that such as rescue is not in time, relief goods can not meet all kinds of harmful influence shipping accidents, multidisciplinary joint action efficiency.
The intelligent Matching of emergency traffic prediction scheme is the key link for shortening the emergency management and rescue decision-making time, obtains effective in real time Emergency plan HSE, the very first time that can also occur in accident in commander make scientific and reasonable judgement so that rescue portion mouthful and Cooperation between relief goods reaches most preferably.
Regarding to the issue above, current currently existing scheme includes:
1st, according to scene of the accident witness warning message, video monitoring information etc. artificially judge accident conditions, and start Related prediction scheme tissue rescue strength carries out rescue command.
2nd, existing patent【Patent name:A kind of express way integrated event handling and Emergent scheduler system and method;Shen Please numbers 201410811357.8】, by DSS (Decision-Support-System, abbreviation DSS), including thing Therefore operation evaluation module, predicting travel time module, event influence prediction module and event Tendency Prediction module provide newest The road conditions of highway, decision support is done comprising traffic events, weather conditions, construction information, control traffic message, then by one The delivery system and command dispatching system of body carry out emergency management and rescue commander.
4th, the shortcoming of prior art
The shortcoming of prior art is as follows:
Method 1:More universal in the relatively low section of the level of informatization, by manually entering analysis and decision under line, efficiency is low, Error rate is high, and cost of labor is high, is not suitable with current art and application development trend;
Method 2:The method is applied to the section for having certain basis for IT application, is that Emergency command decision-making has done certain branch Support, but specifically designed for harmful influence vehicle transport accident do not do Emergency decision function, for command scheduling provide it is corresponding comprehensive Close decision information input very few.
Additionally, prior art also there is a problem of it is as follows:
(1) the harmful influence leakage status information that contains of event package is more, including harmful influence information, meteorology, road surface, accident, supports Each information such as row, bayonet socket, charge, video, each state has different attributes to rely on to levy again, and existing system is not to status number According to sufficiently being gathered and being comprehensively utilized, the result precision that draws, confidence level are relatively low.
(2) budget result that some diffusion models are calculated is not bound with GIS (GIS-Geographic Information System, Geographic Information System or Geo-Information system) map is shown, and data are complex, not intuitively, The support for providing decision-making is less efficient.
(3) intelligent Matching of emergency traffic prediction scheme is the key link for shortening the emergency management and rescue decision-making time, is had in real time The emergency plan HSE of effect, the very first time that can also occur in accident in commander makes scientific and reasonable judgement and causes rescue portion Cooperation between door and relief goods reaches most preferably, the intelligence of emergency preplan of the existing method on harmful influence leakage event response Energy matching aspect is substantially not enough, and shortage is matched or the matching result degree of accuracy is relatively low.
The content of the invention
This case technical problem to be solved is:The harmful influence leakage event on the way occurred to harmful influence haulage vehicle can be entered Capable quick, science, efficient emergency command scheduling.
The invention provides a kind of emergency traffic command methods based on harmful influence diffusion model, comprise the following steps:
Step 1, by from road lay all kinds of awareness apparatus directly gather or from other relevant departments of traffic administration, The mode collection event relevant informations such as collection are shared in the unit information system such as meteorology, public security, hospital;Event information includes danger Nearby road section information, accident point periphery weather information and surrounding enviroment are quick in information, the harmful influence car accident place of change product vehicle The information such as sense protection target, emergency resources distributed intelligence, video;
Step 2, based on improved Gauss gaseous contamination diffusion model, to the pollution shape on harmful influence car accident place periphery Condition carries out emulation early warning, emulates the diffusion zone of polluter as border real-time Simulation with certain concentration value, and predicts pollution The flowing situation of material and evacuation path;
The other information such as pollution sources letter of step 3, the diffusion zone that analog simulation is obtained, flowing situation, and event Event information storage is carried out intelligence by breath, weather information, emergency resources information etc. by representing that GIS map is unified Matching, it is final to determine most preferably to direct rescue work prediction scheme;
Step 4, according to most preferably directing rescue work prediction scheme carries out emergency command.
Step 2 of the present invention comprises the following steps:
Step 2-1, obtains the relevant information of transport harmful influence vehicle, including harmful influence kind from the information of step 1 collection Class property, warning concentration, dangerous concentrations, lethasl concentration, type of vehicle, overall height, the temperature of device, pressure, total amount information, with reference to Information above and source strength is confirmed by relevant road segments video monitoring, and estimate the effective depth of source of leakage;
Step 2-2, obtains harmful influence car accident place road section information nearby from the information gathered from step 1, including Position and terrain surface specifications;
Step 2-3, obtains harmful influence car accident place meteorology number in real time in being obtained from the information gathered from step 1 According to, including temperature, wind direction, wind speed, cloud amount information, determine atmospheric stability, diffusion parameter is determined by atmospheric stability form;
Step 2-4, generation harmful influence car accident leakage immediate vicinity sample point coordinate, calculates all sampled point gases dense Degree set;
Step 2-5, according to the leakage warning concentration of gas, dangerous concentrations, lethasl concentration these three concentration values to sampled point Gas concentration set carries out convex closure and solves to determine range areas.
In step 2-4 of the present invention, sampled point gas concentration C is calculated using equation below:
Wherein, C be sample gas t coordinate (d, 0,0) place concentration, Q is source strength, i.e. source rate of release, and u is Mean wind speed, δ x/ δ y/ δ z are that x, y, z direction irradiated standard is poor, and x, y, z represents the down wind beam wind vertical with down wind respectively To, vertical direction, H is the effective depth of source of leakage, and t is the time, and d is lower wind direction distance.
Step 2-5 of the present invention includes:
Step 2-5-1, finds the minimum point of leftmost point in all sampled points, i.e. y-coordinate, if y-coordinate is identical, The point for looking for x coordinate minimum, the coordinate of this point is (x0, y0);
Step 2-5-2, seeks the polar angle (atan2 (y-y of all sampled points on the basis of the point determined by step 2-5-10), x- x0), and according to polar angle to these ascending sequences of point, datum mark is up front;
Step 2-5-3, by step 2-5-2 sort point be designated as P [0] ... P [n-1], stack is built, on the basis of wherein P [0] Point, P [n-1] represents (n-1)th sampled point, and n is the quantity of sampled point, and n is bigger, and sampling block area is smaller, as a result more accurate, but The cost time is also more, it is necessary to suitably be selected according to accident concrete condition.P [0], P [1], P [2] are pushed on when initial, for stack Other points afterwards, if two points of stack top do not constitute the relation turned left with him, the point of stack top are popped, until without a need Current point is pushed on after popping;
Step 2-5-4, preserves the result of step 2-5-3, obtains convex closure.
In step 3 of the present invention, the element that represents of GIS map includes:Real-time weather information display frames, displaying real-time weather letter Breath;Harmful influence reveals information:Offer event associated vehicle and personal information;Harmful influence information, there is provided accident is related to harmful influence Specific materialization information;Impact analysis display frames:The radius displaying for calculating analysis is provided;
It is described that event information storage is carried out into intelligent Matching in step 3 of the present invention, most preferably directed rescue work prediction scheme bag Include:According to event information and information of forecasting, with reference to the real time information that road section flow, emergency resources are distributed, according to data Integrated degree is carried out using threshold value hybrid similarity matching algorithm and bayesian probability model matching algorithm in emergency preplan storehouse The intelligent Matching of prediction scheme, is most preferably directed rescue work prediction scheme.
Innovative point of the invention is:
1. the emulation of harmful influence gas diffusion;
2. the overall emergency command method that harmful influence spreads event is carried out using various information-based means.
Beneficial effect:Compared with prior art, the present invention have the advantages that following aspects it is certain, including:By thing The extensive collection and comprehensive utilization of all kinds of related datas of part, generate more horn of plenty for harmful influence event, it is directly perceived, accurate, Comprehensive decision information.Realize the prediction of effective harmful influence gas leakage events coverage using Gauss model, and can be Intuitively shown in GIS map;Simplify artificial operation, by the decision support information and the emergency preplan of intelligence enriched Method of completing the square reduces manual decision's difficulty, reduces manual decision's time, greatly improves commanding and decision-making efficiency.
Brief description of the drawings
The present invention is done with reference to the accompanying drawings and detailed description further is illustrated, it is of the invention above-mentioned or Otherwise advantage will become apparent.
Fig. 1 is overall procedure schematic diagram of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is the emulation schematic diagram of harmful influence gas diffusion.
Fig. 3 is intelligent Matching flow and method schematic diagram.
Fig. 4 is harmful influence diffusion model emulation GIS user interfaces.
Specific embodiment
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiment the present invention will be further described.As shown in Figure 1 for overall procedure of the present invention shows It is intended to, the invention provides a kind of emergency traffic command methods based on harmful influence diffusion model, comprises the following steps:
Step 1, by from road lay all kinds of awareness apparatus directly gather or from other relevant departments of traffic administration, The mode collection event relevant informations such as collection are shared in the unit information system such as meteorology, public security, hospital;Event information includes danger Nearby road section information, accident point periphery weather information and surrounding enviroment are quick in information, the harmful influence car accident place of change product vehicle The information such as sense protection target, emergency resources distributed intelligence, video;
Step 2, based on improved Gauss gaseous contamination diffusion model, to the pollution shape on harmful influence car accident place periphery Condition carries out emulation early warning, emulates the diffusion zone of the polluter at certain moment as boundary condition simulation with certain concentration value, and predicts The flowing situation of polluter and evacuation path;
The other information such as pollution sources letter of step 3, the diffusion zone that computer sim- ulation is obtained, flowing situation, and event Event information storage is carried out intelligence by breath, weather information, emergency resources information etc. by representing that GIS map is unified Matching, it is final to determine most preferably to direct rescue work prediction scheme;
Step 4, according to most preferably directing rescue work prediction scheme carries out emergency command.
Step 5, carry out emergency resources such as remove obstacles vehicle, fire-fighting vehicle, the scheduling of medical resource, by signal plate, micro- The diversified forms such as letter, short message, App enter row information issue and traffic guidance shunting;
Step 6, maintenance preservation, analysis and statistics, section, time, number of times, place that such as case occurs are carried out to event case The analyses such as the statistics and rescue effect of reason time.
Here is the description of key technology scheme in the step:
On step 2, the application by collect harmful influence car accident place, pollution sources information, pollutant kind information, Distributed intelligence of Weather Forecast Information and surrounding enviroment Sensitive protection goal etc., based on atmosphere pollution Mathematical Modeling, to harmful influence The pollution situation on car accident place periphery is predicted early warning, forms environmental pollution integrated forecasting and analysis model, Jin Ertong Cross analysis and calculate, predict flowing situation, diffusion zone and the evacuation path of polluter, be given in the range of following a period of time Specific predicted value.
Being related to environment event influences the prediction for focusing on harmful influence gas leakage events coverage of prediction, i.e. dangerization The emulation of product gas diffusion.As shown in Figure 2 (pasquill gifford represent Pasquill diffusion model).
Gauss model as evaluate toxic gas leak after diffusion model, because its amount of calculation it is small, it is easy to use the features such as And be widely used.The system according to improved Gauss model, programming realization with pollutant diffusion lower wind direction distance, the time, The effective depth of mean wind speed, pollution burst size and source of leakage is to be input into the real-time toxic gas dispersion ability emulation of the factor.Its Formula is as follows:
Wherein,
C be diffusion gas t (d, 0,0) place concentration, units/kg/m3
Q is source strength, i.e. source rate of release, and unit is kg/s;
U is mean wind speed, unit m/s;
δ x/ δ y/ δ z are that x, y, z direction irradiated standard is poor, and x, y, z represents the down wind beam wind vertical with down wind respectively To, vertical direction;
H is the effective depth of source of leakage.
T is time, unit s;
D is lower wind direction distance, unit m.
1st step, obtains the relevant information of transport harmful influence vehicle, including harmful influence species from the data of step 1 collection Property, warning concentration, dangerous concentrations, lethasl concentration, type of vehicle, overall height, the temperature of device, pressure, total amount information, with reference to Upper information and source strength is confirmed by relevant road segments video monitoring, and estimate the effective depth of source of leakage;
2nd step, obtains harmful influence car accident place road section information nearby, including position from the data gathered from step 1 Put and terrain surface specifications;
3rd step, obtains harmful influence car accident place meteorology number in real time in being obtained from the data gathered from step 1 According to, including temperature, wind direction, wind speed, cloud amount information, determine atmospheric stability, diffusion parameter is determined by atmospheric stability form;
4th step, generation harmful influence car accident leakage immediate vicinity sample point coordinate, calculates all sampled point gas concentrations Set;
5th step, according to the leakage warning concentration of gas, dangerous concentrations, lethasl concentration these three concentration values to sampling point set Conjunction carries out convex closure solution (Graham scanning methods) to determine range areas, and convex closure is one of basic geometry of computational geometry, Algorithm of convex hull is defined as follows:The convex closure of point set Q refers to the known point having in one group of plane, seeks a point met in Q polygon On shape side or in it comprising minimum convex polygon a little.The present invention carries out the convex closure that harmful influence reveals sampled point Calculation procedure is:
(1) the minimum point of leftmost point in all sampled points, i.e. y-coordinate is found, if y-coordinate is identical, x coordinate is looked for Minimum point, the coordinate of this point is (x0, y0);
(2) polar angle (atan2 (y-y of all sampled points are sought on the basis of the point determined by (1)0), x-x0), and according to polar angle To these ascending sequences of point, datum mark is up front;
(3) it be P [0] to set these points ... P [n-1], builds stack, and point on the basis of wherein P [0], P [n-1] expressions (n-1)th are adopted Sampling point, n is the quantity of sampled point, and n is bigger, and sampling block area is smaller, as a result more accurate, but spends the time also more, it is necessary to root Is suitably selected according to accident concrete condition, P [0], P [1], P [2] push on when initial, for other points after stack, if stack top Two points do not constitute the relation turned left with him, then the point of stack top is popped, until by current point after being popped without a needs Push on;
(4) result of step 2-5-3 is preserved, convex closure is obtained.
On step 3, the model calculation combination GIS map carries out overview display and carries out the intelligent Matching of prediction scheme.
The displaying element of GIS map includes including interface element:Real-time weather information display frames, displaying real-time weather letter Breath;Harmful influence reveals information:The information such as offer event associated vehicle and personnel;Harmful influence information, there is provided accident is related to harmful influence Specific materialization information;Impact analysis display frames:The radius displaying for calculating analysis is provided.
Prediction scheme intelligent Matching, it is real with reference to road section flow, emergency resources distribution etc. according to event information and information of forecasting When information, the integrated degree according to data obtained using threshold value hybrid similarity matching algorithm and bayesian probability model matching algorithm The intelligent Matching of prediction scheme is carried out in emergency preplan storehouse, optimal rescue method is obtained, its basic thought is according to passing treated Similar source case as reference, the actual variance between combining target case and source case does corresponding repairing to solution Just, so as to obtain the solution of target case and be stored in case library as new example, case library is enriched.Complete reasoning by cases Process includes lower step:Retrieval, reuse, amendment, preservation, as shown in Figure 3:
1) retrieve:Using the relevant information of problem to be solved as condition, approximate casebook is retrieved from case library;
2) reuse:Solution is chosen in the approximate source casebook for retrieving, judges whether to meet current goal case Requirement, if meeting, reuse these source cases (or merger solution of multiple schemes), otherwise need modification;
3) correct:With reference to the actual information modification solution of current goal case from similar cases, it is allowed to suit and works as Preceding target case, obtains the new solution scheme of current goal case;
4) preserve:Mesh case and its solution are stored in case library as history case, case library is enriched;
Fig. 4 is harmful influence diffusion model emulation GIS user interfaces, and representing element includes:Real-time weather information display frames, exhibition Show real-time weather information;Harmful influence reveals information:Offer event associated vehicle and personal information;Harmful influence information, there is provided accident It is related to the specific materialization information of harmful influence;Impact analysis display frames:The radius displaying for calculating analysis is provided.
The invention provides a kind of emergency traffic command methods based on harmful influence diffusion model, the technical side is implemented The method and approach of case are a lot, and the above is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention, it is noted that for the art For those of ordinary skill, under the premise without departing from the principles of the invention, some improvements and modifications can also be made, these improvement Protection scope of the present invention is also should be regarded as with retouching.Each part being not known in the present embodiment can use prior art to be subject to Realize.

Claims (6)

1. a kind of emergency traffic command methods based on harmful influence diffusion model, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps:
Step 1, collection event relevant information;Event information includes that the information of harmful influence vehicle, harmful influence car accident place are attached Shortcut segment information, accident point periphery weather information and surrounding enviroment Sensitive protection goal, emergency resources distributed intelligence, video letter Breath;
Step 2, based on improved Gauss gaseous contamination diffusion model, the pollution situation to harmful influence car accident place periphery enters Row emulation early warning, the diffusion zone of polluter is emulated with certain concentration value, and predict polluter as border real-time Simulation Flowing situation and evacuate path;
Step 3, the diffusion zone that analog simulation is obtained, flowing situation, and the other information of event is carried out by GIS map Unified represents, and event information storage is carried out into intelligent Matching, final to determine most preferably to direct rescue work prediction scheme;
Step 4, according to most preferably directing rescue work prediction scheme carries out emergency command.
2. method according to claim 1, it is characterised in that step 2 comprises the following steps:
Step 2-1, the relevant information of acquisition transport harmful influence vehicle from the information of step 1 collection, including harmful influence is identity Matter, warning concentration, dangerous concentrations, lethasl concentration, type of vehicle, overall height, the temperature of device, pressure, total amount information, with reference to the above Information and source strength is confirmed by relevant road segments video monitoring, and estimate the effective depth of source of leakage;
Step 2-2, obtains harmful influence car accident place road section information nearby, including position from the information gathered from step 1 And terrain surface specifications;
Step 2-3, the real-time meteorological data in harmful influence car accident place is obtained in being obtained from the information gathered from step 1, Including temperature, wind direction, wind speed, cloud amount information, atmospheric stability is determined, diffusion parameter is determined by atmospheric stability form;
Step 2-4, generation harmful influence car accident leakage immediate vicinity sample point coordinate, calculates all sampled point gas concentration collection Close;
Step 2-5, according to the leakage warning concentration of gas, dangerous concentrations, lethasl concentration these three concentration values to sampled point gas Concentration set carries out convex closure and solves to determine range areas.
3. method according to claim 2, it is characterised in that in step 2-4, sampled point gas is calculated using equation below Concentration C:
< C > ( d , 0 , 0 , t ) = Q 2 &pi; 3 / 2 &sigma; x &sigma; y &sigma; z exp { - 1 2 &lsqb; ( d - u t &sigma; x ) 2 + ( H &sigma; z ) 2 &rsqb; }
Wherein, C be sample gas t coordinate (d, 0,0) place concentration, Q is source strength, i.e. source rate of release, and u is average Wind speed, δ x/ δ y/ δ z are respectively that x, y, z direction irradiated standard is poor, and x, y, z represents the down wind beam wind vertical with down wind respectively To and vertical direction, H is the effective depth of source of leakage, and t is the time, and d is lower wind direction distance.
4. method according to claim 3, it is characterised in that step 2-5 includes:
Step 2-5-1, finds the minimum point of leftmost point in all sampled points, i.e. y-coordinate, if y-coordinate is identical, looks for x The minimum point of coordinate, the coordinate of this point is (x0, y0);
Step 2-5-2, seeks the polar angle (atan2 (y-y of all sampled points on the basis of the point determined by step 2-5-10), x-x0), and According to polar angle to these ascending sequences of point, datum mark is up front;
Step 2-5-3, the point that step 2-5-2 sorts is designated as P [0] ... P [n-1], and build stack, point, P on the basis of wherein P [0] [n-1] represents (n-1)th sampled point, and P [0], P [1], P [2] push on when initial, for other points after stack, if the two of stack top Individual point does not constitute the relation turned left with him, then the point of stack top is popped, until will currently be clicked through after being popped without a needs Stack;
Step 2-5-4, preserves the result of step 2-5-3, obtains convex closure.
5. method according to claim 4, it is characterised in that in step 3, the element that represents of GIS map includes:Real-time gas Image information display frames, show real-time weather information;Harmful influence reveals information:Offer event associated vehicle and personal information;Dangerization Product information, there is provided accident is related to the specific materialization information of harmful influence;Impact analysis display frames:The radius exhibition for calculating analysis is provided Show.
6. method according to claim 5, it is characterised in that in step 3, it is described that event information storage is carried out intelligent Match somebody with somebody, most preferably being directed rescue work prediction scheme includes:According to event information and information of forecasting, with reference to road section flow, emergency resources The real time information of distribution, the integrated degree according to data uses threshold value hybrid similarity matching algorithm and bayesian probability model The intelligent Matching of prediction scheme is carried out in emergency preplan storehouse with algorithm, prediction scheme is most preferably directed rescue work.
CN201611082590.2A 2016-11-30 2016-11-30 A kind of emergency traffic command methods based on harmful influence diffusion model Pending CN106779185A (en)

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