CN106156343A - A kind of deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security evaluation knowledge base and automatic safe reviewing method - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a kind of deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security evaluation knowledge base and automatic safe reviewing method, described knowledge base includes project engineering method information word bank, security risk event word bank, causes danger factor word bank, elementary event evaluation rule word bank, coupled relation word bank and risk class evaluation rule word bank.All relevant knowledges needed for Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering Scheme Security is evaluated by this knowledge base store and manage with carrying out scientific order, make review work eliminate the uncertainty that current manual review is brought, obtain steady quality at short notice, possess the review result of space time information to support site safety management.The present invention can be used in managing deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security evaluation knowledge, realize automatic safe evaluation, to overcome the practical difficulty carrying out arrangement and method for construction review existence at present at construction preparatory stage, improving quality and the efficiency of deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security evaluation, the safety management to the construction time in future provides more preferable decision support.

Description

A kind of deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security evaluation knowledge base and automatic safe reviewing method

Technical field

The invention belongs to engineering risk identification field, particularly to a kind of deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security evaluation knowledge base and Its review method.

Background technology

Deep-foundation pit engineering has the highest security risk, and security incident happens occasionally.China formulates for deep-foundation pit engineering Strict careful management system, (builds matter [2009] 87 according to " dangerous bigger part-to-item project safety management way " Number) in regulation, deep-foundation pit engineering is before construction, and its arrangement and method for construction has to pass through the review of the Committee of Experts, and evaluation is not Can be by construction then cannot be started.The evaluation of deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security is an important ring of Safety Construction of Deep Foundation Pit management Joint, is also the starting point of whole Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering safety management.

China's deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security evaluation at present is mainly reported arrangement and method for construction by unit in charge of construction, locality build Evaluate if expert group is set up in administrative responsibile institution.In real work, there is following difficulty.

(1) manual review is it cannot be guaranteed that entirely accurate and work efficiency are relatively low

Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering Scheme Security evaluation, understands theoretically and is namely based on Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering scheme Information carries out security risk evaluations, and review is the appellation to real work, in theoretical implication with security risk evaluations is Consistent.Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering scheme is the foundation of evaluation, comprises multinomial technological document, with open cut deep-foundation pit engineering is Example, evaluation is according to including: every deep basal pit professional construction scheme (excavation plan, precipitation scheme, the monitoring scheme of deep-foundation pit engineering Deng), survey the technological document of all necessity such as report, design of foundation pit drawing, meteorological data.

Review work at present is all to be accomplished manually by expert group.Expert group first has to read the key in arrangement and method for construction Technical information, the security risk of construction time is analyzed and comments by the experience being engaged in Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering work with self for many years Valency risk level, proposes corresponding Prevention and control measures, would be required to its rectification for not meeting the arrangement and method for construction of safety requirements After again accept evaluation, not over evaluation scheme can not implement.

It is the main contents of evaluation to the analysis of security risk, needs a large amount of Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering Scheme Security to comment Examine knowledge.Review knowledge can be expressed as series of rules in theory, and form is as " if had ... premise, then gone out Existing ... result ".Security risk is affected by causing danger factor, and security risk event is caused by some danger factors that cause, this Two groups of relations can also be expressed as " if had ... cause danger factor situation, then exist ... security risk " and " if had ... cause Danger factor situation, then be likely to occur ... security risk event ".

Assuming that a security risk causes danger factor and is associated with m, i-th causes danger because have n_iIndividual possible value, this One security risk of sample is the most correspondingIndividual cause danger factor valued combinations, each cause danger factor valued combinations represents one can The operating mode of energy, that is to say an evaluation rule.Assume this security risk cause danger factor and value be scientific and reasonable, thenThe individual danger factor valued combinations that causes just contains all evaluation rules of this security risk.

As a example by security risk " Sand at the bottom of foundation ditch ", it is assumed that it is relevant that this security risk at least causes danger factor to 6, point It is not: groundwater condition, foundation ditch subsoil matter, building enclosure are buried and reinforced situation inside and outside ratio, foundation ditch at the bottom of head difference, foundation ditch and go along with sb. to guard him Structure enters rock situation.Each danger factor that causes is including at least 2 possible values (as building enclosure enters rock situation), and have then reaches 5 Above (such as foundation ditch subsoil matter).So combination causing danger factor value of this security risk will easily exceed 1000, i.e. should The evaluation knowledge of security risk will be by thousands of evaluation regular expression.Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering has open cut, lid to dig big with tunneling three Engineering method, the construction safety risk under each engineering method is large number of.Therefore, Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering Scheme Security evaluation knowledge is flood tide 's.

Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering Scheme Security evaluation knowledge is flood tide, does not the most also have which document or patent comprehensive Summarize Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering security risk kind and corresponding cause danger factor.The more important thing is, Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering Security risk evaluation knowledge does not also have the expression of unified standard so that the evaluation of security risk is existed multiple different angle and Method, also have impact on the steady quality of current evaluation.The expert participating in evaluation grasps such order of magnitude completely owing to being difficult to Information so that review result not entirely accurate, information processing capacity the biggest in Risk Analysis Process in addition also makes to comment Careful work takes considerable time, inefficient.

Summary is got up, and manual review exists the difficulty that accuracy is poor and work efficiency is relatively low.

(2) lack effective mechanism and make the evaluation knowledge sharing of Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering Scheme Security and renewal

Relevant knowledge is all dispersed in all kinds of documents of magnanimity, technical data and expert's brains, and owing to being manually difficult to Entirely grasp the review knowledge of flood tide, and the expert participating in evaluation has respective being good at Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering secure context Field, is difficult to have expert to will appreciate that the A to Z of.These knowledge are the accumulation of long-term engineering practice, the most ripe These knowledge can be arranged by mechanism with carrying out specification, and this allows for Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering Scheme Security evaluation knowledge and is difficult to altogether Enjoy, Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering safety management is caused adverse effect.

Additionally, Deep Foundation Works Construction Technology is in constantly updating progress, new security risk and new cause danger factor Also can occur therewith so that review knowledge is also in continuous updating, this increases review the most from another point of view and knows Know the difficulty shared.

(3) information that manual review result provides is the most complete, form is single and is difficult to crew understands and masters.

At present review comment is listed expert with written form often and is thought the higher event of degree of risk, proposes pre-prevention and control System suggestion.The most easily ignore the event that other degrees of risk are relatively low；Secondly, these events are individually listed, and do not embody thing Association between Evolution Paths and the event of part.And it is true that exist between each risk case complexity coupling effect, mutually it Between have apparent causal connection；Again, review comment seldom explicitly points out time and the portion that all risk cases substantially occur Position, i.e. lacks space time information.Such review result, in fact causes the management that minority can only be made to possess enough technical capabilities Personnel understand, and the bottom management personnel of the great majority comprehensive and deep knowledge of engineering technology of shortage and line operator are difficult to lead Realize.Therefore, it is high-rise that such review comment rests on construction management mostly, and the bottom management the closest with security risk relation Personnel and a line workmen are the most effectively instructed.

Theory in Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering security risk identification with assessment has done numerous studies in terms of method both at home and abroad, Through the analysis to pertinent literature, these are studied and there is following characteristics:

(1) object of study aspect, more to behaviorist risk research (have and relate to the research that career safety & health is evaluated in a large number)； Secondly it is the overall assessment of job site security risk；Research to technical risk shows as utilizing estimated risk someway more Size, the rare research relating to evaluation rule.

(2) goal in research aspect, great majority are all to be evaluated as means with construction safety risk, provide decision-making for safety management Support information.Some research incorporates the otherwise management objectives of project management, as safety being combined with cost management Get up, considering to study under conditions of cost puts into restriction the safety management scheme of optimum.

(3) Research Thinking aspect, great majority are all to set up a set of index system on the basis of completing security risk identification, Utilize certain theoretical method (being quantitative approach mostly) to complete risk assessment, its evaluation result show as risk grade (for Single risk) or sequence (for multiple risks).

(4) research method aspect, is divided into two big classes of qualitative and quantitative.Method for qualitative analysis is used for adopting of initial data Collection, as poor in questionnaire tune, Specialist Research etc., the assessment indicator system being mainly used in security risk builds；Quantitative analysis method multilist It is now fuzzy set (Rough Set), analytic hierarchy process (AHP) (Analytic Hierarchy Process), all kinds of comprehensive evaluation theory Method, artificial neural network (Artificial Neural Networks), event tree (Event Tree Analysis), event Barrier tree (Fault Tree Analysis), support vector machine (Support Vector Machine) etc. and these methods United application.

According to above Research Characteristics both at home and abroad, there is following weak link in current correlational study.

(1) research of the rare evaluation rule relating to safe practice risk.

(2) less focus on and the most effectively manage associated safety risk assessment knowledge, make relevant knowledge be difficult to share.

(3) risk identify with evaluate shortage system visual angle, i.e. risk is individually evaluated, less consideration risk it Between influence each other.

(4) evaluation methodology in theory more belongs to overall merit, it is difficult to evaluate multiple risks with loopback diagnostic.

(5) more to Study on Evaluation, but less to how managing relevant knowledge research.Domestic construction safety knowledge Storehouse research is the weakest, there is presently no the knowledge base being specifically designed for Metro Deep Excavation engineering construction safety technical risk, does not also have There is the knowledge base that can support Metro Deep Excavation scheme of project construction review.

Also there are the patent of invention for Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering stage of preparation security risk identification Yu evaluation, more typical case in the past Be " a kind of subway work security risk identification inference system and identify inference method " (ZL 2,012 1 0021691.4). This patented technology discloses and a kind of carries out the method that security risk automatically identifies and evaluates, the method at subway work stage of preparation Core be to establish a kind of comprehensive evaluation model estimated risk size, every calculating parameter (as caused danger factor reliability) of model Needs are previously set, a kind of comprehensive evaluation model of its described evaluation rule.

There is following weak link in this patented technology:

(1) the cause danger factor valued combinations enormous amount of security risk, each cause danger factor model of action to risk case It is not quite similar.There is some decision variables in same security risk event, it is relevant that some decision variables only cause danger factor to one, Some decision variables are relevant to all causing danger factor.Each security risk event concrete condition is different, and these associations are considerably complicated, only By giving a fixing reliability to causing danger factor value, then by Consolidation Function Calculation Estimation value, it is difficult to reflect risk case and cause Complicated relation between the factor of danger, less meets engineering technology principle.

(2) security risk event is individually evaluated, do not account for the coupling effect between risk case.According to engineering , there is clear and definite coupling effect in know-why, its impact is two-way, i.e. there is loop between security risk event.As gone along with sb. to guard him Malformation can increase the degree of Ground Settlement, and the increase of Ground Settlement degree also increases building enclosure and bears Lateral pressure, be further exacerbated by building enclosure deformation.Such engineering is closed and is tied up to also have a lot in Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering, But this patented technology does not accounts for the coupling effect between security risk event, less meets engineering technology principle.And exist at present The such association of research in terms of Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering security risk evaluations also shorter mention.

(3) comprehensive evaluation model cannot process the risk system with loopback diagnostic.If it is considered that between risk case Association, it is established that there is the risk system of loopback diagnostic, commonly using with artificial neural network, event number and fault tree etc. as representative Analysis method be difficult in this case play a role.

In sum, Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering security risk identification and the existing more achievement in research of assessment and application case, And the deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security evaluation knowledge of flood tide is carried out the research of scientific management with concrete technical scheme the most not yet Appear in the newspapers.

The present invention fully analyzes the practical difficulty that the evaluation of current Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering Scheme Security exists, and have studied state Inside and outside pertinent literature and the weak link that patent of invention exists in the past, link closely engineering technology of deep foundation pit principle, proposes a kind of deep base Hole scheme of project construction review knowledge base carries out scientific management to relevant knowledge, utilizes the safety of information technology storage flood tide Evaluation knowledge, is carried out structuring process, and can constantly enrich along with the progress of construction technology and adjust, can be made arrangement and method for construction Review work, based on all evaluation knowledge, eliminates quality risk；The dependence to expert can be reduced；Evaluation course does not has The impact of uncertain factor, can play computer advantage in information processing scale and speed, improves evaluation efficiency；

The automatization of Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering Scheme Security evaluation can be realized based on this knowledge base.Further investigation safety wind Coupling effect between the event of danger and loopback diagnostic, set up evaluation model based on system dynamics and describe the whole construction time Security risk evolutionary process, the review information that computer export is more complete can be relied on, including can reflect between risk couple The Evolution Paths of effect and space time information, make the achievement of review fulfill.

Summary of the invention

The invention provides a kind of deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security evaluation knowledge base and automatic safe reviewing method, solve Deficiency in background technology, is used for managing Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering Scheme Security evaluation knowledge and realizes evaluation automatic Change.

Realizing the technical scheme that above-mentioned purpose of the present invention used is:

A kind of deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security evaluation knowledge base, described knowledge base includes project engineering method information word bank, peace Full risk case word bank, cause danger factor word bank, elementary event evaluation rule word bank, coupled relation word bank and risk class evaluation rule Then word bank；

Described project engineering method information word bank is for by the engineering method message structure of arrangement and method for construction；

Described security risk event word bank for store the title of security risk event and coding, the character of risk case, The loss grade of risk case, Pre-control measures；Described security risk event word bank according to risk case self feature and The effect played in whole project security risk system is different, is elementary event, sign event by each security risk event definition With loss three event property of event, each risk case possesses one to two event property；

The described danger factor word bank that causes is for storing the cause danger factor associated with elementary event, and defines all of cause danger factor Value, definition cause danger factor associates with elementary event, and this association is in fact the evaluation rule format of elementary event；

Described elementary event evaluation rule word bank is used for storing each elementary event evaluation rule；

Described coupled relation word bank carries out the basic parameter needed for coupling calculates for storage, for carrying out multi-risk System evaluation meter Calculate the design conditions providing necessary；

According to loss event possibility occurrence grade and the difference of loss grade in described risk class evaluation rule word bank Combination, marks corresponding risk class class label, sets up risk class evaluation rule, to realize the ultimate risk to loss event Grade is evaluated.

Described elementary event, sign event and loss event particularly as follows:

(1) elementary event: during Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering, elementary event occur inducement arise directly from construct into Degree, along with the extension of construction speed so that the relevant property value causing danger factor constantly changes, and directly results in basic thing The probability size of part occurrence risk changes；Elementary event is divided into two classes, respectively has the basic thing of sign event property Part loses the elementary event of event property with damaging；

(2) sign event: during Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering, the probability that sign event occurs is the most inevitable very greatly Occur, but it occur at once not bring loss, sign event if subjected to effective control then will not bring actual loss, and If it is improper to control, successor may be caused and bring loss；

(3) loss event: refer to directly bring the event of personnel and property loss, must avoid the thing occurred in construction Part, loss event is directly or indirectly caused by sign event or elementary event, and its event possibility occurrence is to enter with these events The result of sector-style danger coupling；Loss event can also oneself inherently elementary event, its event possibility occurrence only by and from The cause danger factor impact of body association, this type of loss event is owing to having elementary event character, and its risk stream produced will affect it His event.

By compiling the original construction information of conventional project under construction in described elementary event evaluation rule word bank, with Condition premised on the cause danger factor value of each security risk event in actual items, arranges with safety management corresponding in construction note Execute as foundation, with production KR as form, set up each elementary event and cause under the factor valued combinations of danger all possible Risk possibility occurrence grade；

Described original construction information include design drawing, survey data, arrangement and method for construction, construction journal, supervision diary, meeting Summary.

In described elementary event evaluation rule word bank, each elementary event evaluation rule uses production KR, basic thing Part evaluation rule is made up of precondition and decision variable, and wherein precondition is the cause danger factor valued combinations of elementary event, Decision variable is possibility occurrence grade or the occurrence degree grade of elementary event, and the whole of any one concrete elementary event comment Examining rule quantity is that this elementary event all preconditions value number is long-pending.

The determination method of the accumulation of risks rate of elementary event is:

(1) for having the elementary event of sign event property:

First, choose in conventional deep-foundation pit engineering project and multiple completed there is identical foundation ditch design form such as go along with sb. to guard him Structure and the project of support system, observe its relevant Monitoring Data in construction each stage, obtain its event in each stage and send out Raw degree evaluation grade；Then according to the engineering time in each stage of construction journal record, reversely calculate that average product tires out rate, thus Obtain the accumulation rate of each opinion rating；The data of last comprehensive multiple projects carry out average value processing and obtain the estimated value of accumulation rate；

(2) have loss event property elementary event:

First, multiple completed deep basal pit with identical foundation ditch design form such as building enclosure and support system is chosen Engineering project, the experts' evaluation result before going into operation with projects is as foundation, and the risk of each construction stage of identifying project may occur Property evaluation of estimate, then the opinion rating in each stage is labeled with the maximum that the evaluation of estimate of its correspondence is interval, with each stage The construction persistent period be time shaft, reversely calculate that average product tires out rate, the reckoning result of comprehensive multiple projects obtains each risk and sends out The accumulation rate estimated value of raw possibility grade.

The determination method of the coefficient of coup of coupling event group is:

As a example by base bottom heave, building enclosure deformation and three events of Ground Settlement, exist between three events Coupling effect, base bottom heave degree and Ground Settlement degree all can affect building enclosure deformation extent, if A and C is respectively For Ground Settlement and the accumulative monitor value of base bottom heave, B is building enclosure rate of deformation monitor value, is put by 3 ordered series of numbers On same time shaft, then:

$Cov(A,B)=E\left(\right(A-\stackrel{\‾}{A}\left)\right(B-\stackrel{\‾}{B}\left)\right)=\[{\Σ}_{i=1}^n(a_i-\stackrel{\‾}{A})(b_i-\stackrel{\‾}{B})\]/n$

$Cov(C,B)=E\left(\right(C-\stackrel{\‾}{C}\left)\right(B-\stackrel{\‾}{B}\left)\right)=\[{\Σ}_{i=1}^n(c_i-\stackrel{\‾}{A})(b_i-\stackrel{\‾}{B})\]/n$

Then building enclosure deformation with the coefficient of coup of Ground Settlement is:

ρ_AB=Cov (A, B)/[Cov (A, B)+Cov (C, B)]

Building enclosure deformation with the coefficient of coup of base bottom heave is:

ρ_CB=Cov (C, B)/[Cov (A, B)+Cov (C, B)].

Present invention also offers a kind of deep foundation pit construction scheme automatic safe reviewing method based on above-mentioned security knowledge base, Comprise the following steps:

(1) the main engineering method information of arrangement and method for construction is carried out structuring process under the framework of project engineering method information word bank；

(2) based on structurized project engineering method information, retrieve security risk event word bank, extract all and project engineering method The security risk event that information is associated generates risk identification inventory, owing to security risk event word bank defines each safety wind The reason event of danger event and result event, therefore also comprise reason event and the result thing of each security risk event in this inventory Part information；

(3) based on the elementary event in risk identification inventory, retrieval causes danger factor word bank, every in risk identification inventory Individual elementary event coupling is corresponding causes danger factor；

(4) with its result event, security risk event being formed a coupling event group, risk identification inventory contains respectively Security risk event and result event information thereof, i.e. contain multiple coupling event group；It is then based in risk identification inventory Each coupling event group, retrieves coupled relation word bank, mates corresponding coupling factor for each coupling event group；

(5) set up evaluation model, be each cause danger factor and coupling factor assignment based on arrangement and method for construction information；

(6) retrieval evaluation rule word bank, determines initial evaluation value for each elementary event；

(7) retrieval coupled relation word bank, determines coupled systemes numerical value for each coupling event group；

(8) evaluation calculation of full construction time is completed；

(9) output evaluation result.

In step (5), corresponding evaluation model structure principle is:

(1) elementary event is the risk sources of whole risk system, it is necessary to evaluate rules evaluation its in each construction stage Risk size, cause danger factor and occur in a model with the form of auxiliary variable；

(2) non-elementary event, its risk size is determined by coupling effect；

(3) with the time as axle, each danger factor value within the whole construction time that causes of all elementary events is all that shadow becomes The function of amount " Time "；

(4) loss event level variable indicates its possibility occurrence evaluation of estimate, and sign event also indicates with level variable, But indicate is its occurrence degree evaluation of estimate；

(5) coupling effect is determined by the coefficient of coup, and the size of the coefficient of coup is determined by the coupling factor being associated.

Compared with prior art, the invention have the advantages that (1) the most traditional risk identification and evaluate or main Rely on the Knowledge Capability of technical staff individual, but human brain processes the limited in one's ability, for the Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering of flood tide of information Scheme Security evaluation knowledge, human brain is difficult to grasp completely, and therefore evaluation difficult quality is completely secured；Manual review work efficiency is relatively Low；There is presently no the knowledge base for the evaluation of Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering Scheme Security, relevant knowledge does not obtain the pipe of science Reason, knowledge share and update highly difficult.Based on the real data that the present invention produces from conventional Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering, carry Go out the method that initial data is processed to be arranged, set up Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering Scheme Security evaluation KBM flood tide Review knowledge, with the difficulty overcoming current real work to exist, fill up the deficiency that relevant knowledge management exists.

(2) arrangement and method for construction engineering method information is carried out structuring arrangement by the present invention, establishes the hierarchical structure of engineering method information, pin Node concrete to each in this hierarchical structure associates corresponding security risk event, makes the computer can be according to arrangement and method for construction In engineering method information carry out quick risk identification, form risk identification inventory.Save a large amount of risk primary dcreening operation working time.

(3) present invention uses the concept of elementary event, sign event and loss event to institute in security risk event word bank Security risk is had to be defined.These three conceptual description security risk event in the whole project security risk system not Congeniality and effect, directly determine the computational methods in flow graph evaluation model, makes evaluation calculation more conform to engineering actual, retouches State the generation evolution of risk case.

(4) present invention the most conventionally sets up evaluation model and carries out risk assessment, but directly with IF THEN form Set up rules evaluation risk.The precondition valued combinations of evaluation rule can express certain concrete security risk event institute likely The actual condition faced, it is to avoid the Theoretical Calculation that comprehensive evaluation model is obscure, evaluation rule is simple and clear, work actual with scene Fit tightly.Due to evaluation regular texture simple and clear so that dependency rule can carry out according to up-to-date information easily and Time adjust (revise, increase or delete), it is ensured that the evaluation shared resources of knowledge and upgrading in time.The present invention is by all basic things Part evaluation rule is stored in elementary event evaluation rule word bank, and this word bank can store the evaluation of all elementary events in theory Rule, summarizes the main security evaluation knowledge being dispersed in expert's individuality and literature various.

(5) instant invention overcomes the weakness that in research in the past and practice, security risk event is carried out independent assessment, fully Consider the coupling effect between security risk event, establish flow graph model and describe the pass of whole project each security risk event System and the characteristics of motion, be evaluated on the basis of taking into full account coupling effect, more conforms to security risk event and produces development Mechanism, make evaluation result possess space time information, it is provided that the most careful review supports information.

(6) present invention is sent out based on the analysis and arrangement to Historical Monitoring data, it is proposed that pacify according to Historical Monitoring DATA REASONING The method of the effects of coupling between of full risk case, establishes the coefficient of coup and determines formula, direct support that flow graph evaluation model Evaluate clearing.

(7) user is under the guidance of knowledge base and the system of evaluation, successively the engineering method in input Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering scheme Information, causes danger factor value information, it is possible to based on whole deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security evaluation knowledge, carry out deep basal pit The review of scheme of project construction, utilizes computer in information processing efficiency and qualitative advantage, quickly obtains deep base Hole scheme of project construction review result, this result possess manual review be difficult to the short time complete the most careful Review support that the safety management of construction stage is carried out more targeted according to review result by information, beneficially user Control, it is achieved the automatization of safety risk management and scientific.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is the building-block of logic of deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security provided by the present invention evaluation knowledge base；

Fig. 2 is the module map of deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security provided by the present invention evaluation knowledge base；

Fig. 3 is the structure chart of deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security provided by the present invention evaluation knowledge base；

Fig. 4 is the coupled relation figure in the embodiment of the present invention between each security risk event；

The flow chart of the deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security reviewing method that Fig. 5 provides for the present invention；

The deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security estimating and examining system frame diagram that Fig. 6 provides for the present invention.

Detailed description of the invention

Below in conjunction with specific embodiment the present invention done detailed specific description, but protection scope of the present invention not office It is limited to following example.

The building-block of logic of the deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security evaluation knowledge base that the present invention provides is as it is shown in figure 1, its module Figure as in figure 2 it is shown, its structure chart as shown in Figure 3.Include project engineering method information word bank, security risk event word bank, cause danger because of Sub-prime storehouse, elementary event evaluation rule word bank, coupled relation word bank and risk class evaluation rule word bank.

Project engineering method information word bank, for by the engineering method message structure of arrangement and method for construction.

Security risk event word bank, for storing title and coding, the character of risk case, the risk case of risk case Loss grade, Pre-control measures.Security risk event word bank by the key message needed for review with risk case as object Carry out structured storage, become the core word bank of knowledge base.

Causing danger factor word bank, the cause danger factor associated for storage with elementary event, definition causes the institute of danger factor likely Value, definition cause danger factor associates with elementary event, and this association is in fact the evaluation rule format of elementary event.Cause danger The each danger factor that causes associated with elementary event is carried out structured storage by factor word bank, becomes the basic word bank of knowledge base.

Elementary event evaluation rule word bank, is used for storing each elementary event evaluation rule.Evaluation rule format word can Being expressed as " if there is ... cause danger factor valued combinations, then risk possibility occurrence grade is ... ".Any basic thing Part, after determining it and causing danger factor and value thereof, can be searched in elementary event evaluation rule word bank and meet and cause danger accordingly The rule of factor valued combinations, indicates risk possibility occurrence grade for elementary event, for carrying out risk from project entirety aspect Initial data is set up in evaluation.

Coupled relation word bank, carries out the basic parameter needed for coupling calculates for storage, for carrying out multi-risk System evaluation calculation Necessary design conditions are provided.Once provide the event group with coupled relation for coupled relation word bank, coupled relation word bank is just Can be that this event group sets up corresponding coupling factor；Then can be according to arrangement and method for construction information to coupling factor assignment；Finally According to the coupling factor after assignment, coupled relation word bank can find the corresponding coefficient of coup, multi-risk System can be completed and comment The coupled relation definition of valency model.

Risk class evaluation rule word bank, is according to " urban track traffic underground engineering construction risk management specification " (GB50652-2011) in, risk class is calibrated really standard and sets up risk class judgment rule.May occur according to loss event Property grade and the various combination of loss grade, mark corresponding risk class class label, it is possible to set up risk class evaluation rule Then, these rules are stored in risk class evaluation rule word bank by unified, to realize the ultimate risk grade to loss event Evaluate.

Described causing danger factor word bank, specification causes the value of danger factor, makes the technical information structuring in arrangement and method for construction, with Just meet evaluation model requirement, be evaluated calculating；Described security risk event word bank defines the reason of security risk event Event and result event, make up the deficiency that conventional security risk evaluations exists so that evaluation model considers security risk event Between coupling effect, more conform to engineering actual；Described security risk event word bank is according to the spy of security risk event self Point and the effect played in whole project security risk system thereof be different, for each security risk event definition elementary event, Sign event and loss three event property of event, each security risk event possesses one to two event property, different things Part character has different processing methods in evaluation model, its objective is to make evaluation calculation more accurately describe security risk thing The feature of part self and the effect played in whole project security risk system thereof, more conform to engineering actual；Described base Present event evaluation rule word bank, by compile conventional project under construction original construction information (include design drawing, survey money Material, arrangement and method for construction, construction journal, supervision diary, meeting summary etc.), with the cause danger of security risk event each in actual items because of Condition premised on element value, in construction note, corresponding Safety Management Measures is as foundation, with production KR as form, builds Vertical each elementary event is commented in all possible risk possibility occurrence grade caused under the factor valued combinations of danger, composition elementary event Examine rule word bank, make the elementary event of project to be evaluated can quickly determine initial evaluation value.

The concept of described elementary event, sign event and loss event is:

(1) elementary event.During Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering, the inducement of some risk case is directly from construction Progress.Extension along with construction speed so that the property value that cause danger factor relevant to this event constantly changes, this change Change directly results in the risk possibility occurrence size of this event and changes.As: along with being continuously increased of the excavation of foundation pit degree of depth, Base bottom heave degree is caused to continue to increase.It is to increase building enclosure that base bottom heave degree strengthens the direct result brought Deformation and the degree of Ground Settlement, here base bottom heave is an elementary event.Elementary event possesses two typical cases Feature, one is that the risk size of event is directly affected by construction speed；Two be its risk amount produced be the source of risk stream, Being the source of whole Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering security risk system risk stream, in other words, the risk of non-elementary event is all Brought by elementary event directly or indirectly.Therefore the event that can will be provided with this character is referred to as elementary event.

(2) sign event.During Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering, the probability that some event occurs is the most inevitable very greatly Occur, but it occurs not bring loss at once.These events if subjected to effective control then will not bring actual loss, and If it is improper to control, successor may be caused and bring loss.These events are to need during Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering Long-term in the face of and process, experienced unit in charge of construction can according to the degree size that each event occurs decide whether to take measures into Row controls.Such as base bottom heave, building enclosure deformation, Ground Settlement etc..Along with the extension of construction speed, excavation of foundation pit is deep Degree is continuously increased, and bury ratio, the subsoil water of building enclosure etc. cause danger factor and undesirable change constantly occurs, base bottom heave degree, Building enclosure deformation extent and Ground Settlement degree all can strengthen.But these events the most directly bring loss, as long as its Degree is in controlled scope, it is believed that the probability bringing successor to occur is the least.As building enclosure deforms by foundation ditch The impact of end protuberance, base bottom heave degree is the biggest, and its deformation extent also can be the biggest.The risk stream that base bottom heave produces flows to Building enclosure deformational event, couples during risk transmission, causes building enclosure deformation extent to change.If enclosed Protection structure deformation extent can not get well controlling, and develops as one pleases, and may finally cause building enclosure Sand or go along with sb. to guard him knot Structure caves in event, and causes damage.Therefore, it can the most necessarily occur during Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering, itself Do not bring direct losses that the event of loss but can be caused to be referred to as sign event.

(3) loss event.Loss event refers to directly bring personnel and property loss, must avoid occurring in construction Event.Sand, building enclosure as at the bottom of foundation ditch is caved in, building enclosure Sand, periphery pipeline or buildings or structures damage Bad etc..Loss event is directly or indirectly caused by sign event or elementary event, and its event possibility occurrence is and these events Carry out the result of risk coupling.Loss event is likely to oneself inherently elementary event, its event possibility occurrence only by with The cause danger factor impact of self association, such loss event is owing to having elementary event character, and its risk stream produced is by shadow Ring other events.

Relation between each event is intricate, and some event can be provided simultaneously with two attributes.

In described elementary event evaluation rule word bank, each rule uses production KR, and rule is by precondition and decision-making Variable form, wherein precondition is the cause danger factor valued combinations of elementary event, decision variable be elementary event " occur can Energy property grade " (for loss event) or " occurrence degree grade " (for sign event).Certain concrete elementary event whole Evaluation rule quantity is that all preconditions of this elementary event (causing danger factor) value number is long-pending.As for " foundation ditch ground swell swelling Sand " elementary event, its evaluation rule can with concentrated expression in Table 1, and this event has six to cause danger factors, each cause danger factor can Can be respectively 4,3,3,3,2,2 by value number, then this elementary event has 432 evaluation rules, and it is basic that this 432 rule covers this Event is all contingent operating modes (all causing danger factor valued combinations) in the middle of reality, have expressed the whole of this elementary event Evaluation knowledge.

Table 1 risk possibility occurrence classification standard

Described elementary event evaluates the decision variable of each rule in rule word bank and the determination that corresponding evaluation of estimate is interval thereof Method is:

Elementary event is divided into two classes, i.e. has the elementary event of sign event property and damages the basic thing losing event property Part.For damaging the elementary event losing event property, the form of its evaluation rule is: " if there is ... cause danger factor value Combination, then risk possibility occurrence grade is ... ", causing danger factor valued combinations is conditional-variable, risk possibility occurrence etc. Level is decision variable.

To the security risk each early warning of event etc. in reference " subway engineering construction safety review standards of designing " (GB50715-2011) The regulation of level control measures, corresponds in " urban track traffic underground engineering construction risk management specification " (GB50652-2011) Five security risk event possibility occurrence grades, can define have loss event property elementary event possibility occurrence The control measures feature that grade is corresponding, as shown in table 1.

According to the evaluation term of table 1, the various situations about actually occurring of accumulation in can constructing for the past, with at that time Control measures are foundation, determine in each risk case possibility occurrence grade caused under the factor valued combinations of danger at that time.

For having the elementary event of sign event property, its evaluation rule form be: " if there is ... cause danger because of Element valued combinations, then event occurrence degree is ... ", causing danger factor valued combinations is conditional-variable, and event occurrence degree is for certainly Plan variable.The connotation of occurrence degree is it is to be understood that the risk pressure that brought of the occurrence degree of sign event, such as building enclosure Deformation reaches the risk pressure ratio building enclosure deformation pressure that only 20% alarming value brings that alarming value brings and wants big.Owing to levying Million events and loss event are all to indicate event occurrence degree by a nondimensional evaluation of estimate and event possibility occurrence is big Little, so unified evaluation criterion should be formulated to ensure to evaluate accuracy.

Sign event the most also has difference with the connotation of loss event evaluation value due to event self property, so should be by Both evaluation of estimate unified standards, could be evaluated in a model.

Safe early warning principle of management according to job site, when sign event reaches alarming value, scene will start should Anxious prediction scheme also studies control way, and such counter-measure is adopted for " frequently " with table 1 risk possibility occurrence grade The counter-measure taken is consistent, and its actual connotation is, it is that the sign event in this moment is regarded possibility occurrence by scene High-grade loss event is tackled, and therefore sign event evaluation value highest ranking is defined as " dangerous ", and its standard is " to reach To and exceed monitoring, alarming value ", its evaluation of estimate is interval corresponding with losing event possibility occurrence grade " frequently ".Same root According to safe early warning principle of management, when Monitoring Data reaches 80% alarming value, will trigger on-the-spot early warning mechanism, scene will be to generation The position reinforcement monitoring frequency of early warning is laid equal stress on and is a little paid close attention to, and its control measures and table 1 risk possibility occurrence grade are " can Can " counter-measure taked is consistent.Therefore this degree of sign event being defined as " basic security ", its standard is to reach 80% but less than 100% early warning value.When not triggering on-the-spot early warning mechanism, then may be defined as " safety ".

Send out about risk according in " urban track traffic underground engineering construction risk management specification " (GB50652-2011) The criteria for classifying of raw possibility grade, the probability interval of each adjacent rank all differs an order of magnitude.Therefore, in estimated risk thing During the risk possibility occurrence grade of part, the occurrence degree size of risk case can be indicated by the quantity not having dimension (for sign event) or possibility occurrence size (for loss event).But the quantity of adjacent rank is kept difference one The order of magnitude.Basic definition is as shown in table 2.

Table 2 sign event occurrence degree and loss event possibility occurrence definition table

The determination method of the accumulation of risks rate of described elementary event is:

(1) there is the elementary event of sign event property

Sign event can not evaluate its possibility occurrence, can only evaluate its occurrence degree.

First, choose in conventional deep-foundation pit engineering project and multiple completed there is identical foundation ditch design form (go along with sb. to guard him Structure and support system) project.Observe its relevant Monitoring Data in construction each stage, obtain its event in each stage and send out Raw degree evaluation grade, its event occurrence degree determines that method is according to table 2；Then according to the executing of each stage of construction journal record Between man-hour, reversely calculate that average product tires out rate, thus obtain the accumulation rate of each opinion rating；The data of last comprehensive multiple projects are entered Row average value processing obtains the estimated value of accumulation rate.

(2) there is the elementary event of loss event property

Loss its possibility occurrence of event evaluation.

It is possible, firstly, to choose multiple completed deep base with identical foundation ditch design form (building enclosure and support system) Hole engineering project.Experts' evaluation result before going into operation with projects is as foundation, and the risk of each construction stage of identifying project occurs can Can property evaluation of estimate.Then the opinion rating in each stage is carried out with the maximum of the evaluation of estimate interval (being defined by table 2) of its correspondence Mark, with construction persistent period in each stage as time shaft, reversely calculates that average product tires out rate.The reckoning result of comprehensive multiple project Obtain the accumulation rate estimated value of each risk possibility occurrence grade.

The flow chart of the deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security reviewing method that the present embodiment is provided is as shown in Figure 5.The present embodiment The deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security estimating and examining system frame diagram provided is as shown in Figure 6.With detailed programs in the present embodiment As a example by evaluation course, the present invention is described further, and the Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering scheme main information of this project is as follows:

(1) certain project has two-layer basement, and its deep-foundation pit engineering is rectangle, and outsourcing overall length is 158.6m, standard paragraphs outsourcing Beam overall is 20.9m, and basement overall floorage is about 14073m2.Foundation ditch ground elevation is between 22～24 meters, and foundation ditch is The heavy excavation degree of depth 19.1 meters.

(2) foundation ditch present position formation properties is from top to bottom: miscellaneous fill, silty clay, Extra-fine sand, middle decomposed rock, base Stratum at the end, hole is Extra-fine sand；Foundation ditch scope subsoil water is perched water and artesian water, and wherein perched water is present in miscellaneous filling out Soil layer, by surface water supply, artesian water is present in fine sand layer, and its upper strata silty clay is its water-proof top plate, and artesian head exists Below foundation ditch nature terrace 4 meters.

(3) this foundation ditch uses cut and cover tunneling；Building enclosure is diaphram wall, and stratum residing at the bottom of wall is fine sand layer, Maximum is buried ratio 0.7；Use four road bracing members；Periphery has underground pipelines in large quantities, including feed pipe, soil pipe, electric power with communicate Deng；Foundation ditch periphery also has existing building.

(4) according to arrangement and method for construction, this foundation ditch standard construction section construction schedule is as shown in table 3.

For the above-mentioned condition of this project, the review method that the present invention is used is as follows:

(1) project to be evaluated is set up

Set up new projects the most in systems, set up project name, construction unit, surveying unit, designing unit, execute Work order position, supervisor and project overview etc..

(2) engineering method information is set up

The information provided according to Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering scheme, sets up the main engineering method of this deep-foundation pit engineering in estimating and examining system Information.In estimating and examining system, the foundation of engineering method information is based on engineering method hierarchical structure, carries to user with the form of multiple-choice question For engineering method hierarchical structure, user only need to simply choose can set up engineering method information.

(3) risk is quickly identified

Estimating and examining system, according to the engineering method information of deep-foundation pit engineering, retrieves security risk event word bank, and Automatic sieve selects deep base Hole engineering all safe practices risk.

(4) it is that elementary event coupling causes danger factor

Estimating and examining system is according to the elementary event identified in risk case, and retrieval causes danger factor word bank, to all basic things Part coupling is corresponding causes danger factor.

(5) it is that coupling event mates coupling factor

Estimating and examining system is according to identifying risk case retrieval coupled relation word bank, for the corresponding result event of each event matches Set up coupling event group, and all coupling event groups are mated corresponding coupling factor.

(6) risk identification inventory is generated

The information of (3), (4) and (5) is all integrated in risk identification inventory above.

(7) cause danger factor and coupling factor value information are set up

Enter vensim module, according to Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering plan, set up each cause danger factor and coupling factor is being executed entirely The value function of duration, defines all cause danger factors and coupling factor value.So that as a example by danger factor " foundation ditch subsoil matter ", this cause Danger factor defines in table function mode, and wherein first row data " input " are working day, and this construction section plan is complete for 70 working days Becoming, the definition of each construction stage is shown in Table 3, and secondary series data " output " are soil property code.

(8) evaluation model is set up

Set up deep-foundation pit engineering multi-risk System rating model to be evaluated calculating.When carrying out risk assessment and calculating, evaluation system Unite vensim Systems Analysis Module plug-in, according to the mutual relation information of each risk case in risk identification inventory and basic The cause danger factor information of event is set up multi-risk System evaluation model and is completed evaluation calculation.

Owing to the evaluation model of many construction sections is excessively complicated, data volume is huge, and the evaluation model of many construction sections is by many Individual single construction section evaluation model combines.For clear succinct, below as a example by one standard construction section of this deep-foundation pit engineering, cut open The calculating process on analysis estimating and examining system backstage and result.

This deep-foundation pit engineering is a typical cut and cover method deep-foundation pit engineering, and this engineering has 11 security risk events, root According to the project initial information defined in system, estimating and examining system determines between 11 security risk events, security risk event Coupled relation, and the cause danger factor of elementary event.Coupled relation between 11 security risk events as shown in Figure 4,11 Security risk event constitutes a multi-risk System evaluation model.

(1) whole model has 11 events, wherein 5 elementary events.Due to Sand at the bottom of base bottom heave and foundation ditch The evaluation rule of two elementary events is complicated, and in order to clear succinct, the auxiliary variable expressing this part calculating process is left out, and changes Directly evaluation of estimate is inputted with the form of table function by shadow variable Time.

(2) equation is set up., in model, equation quantity is a lot, lists it here as a example by building enclosure Sand event Equation is as follows:

1. building enclosure Sand risk RATE=

IF THEN ELSE (Time≤50, IF THEN ELSE (foundation ditch scope subsoil water=0,0, IF THEN ELSE (foundation ditch scope subsoil water=1,0.025, IF THEN ELSE (foundation ditch scope subsoil water=2:AND: building enclosure type=0: AND: longitudinal water-stop curtain=0,0.05, IF THEN ELSE (foundation ditch scope subsoil water=2:AND: building enclosure type=1: ))), 0) AND: longitudinal water-stop curtain=1,0.1,0.075).

2. building enclosure Sand risk possibility occurrence evaluation of estimate=INTEG (send out by building enclosure Sand risk Raw probability evaluation of estimate accumulating rate, 0)

3. building enclosure Sand risk possibility occurrence evaluation of estimate accumulating rate=building enclosure Sand risk Possibility occurrence evaluation of estimate * building enclosure Sand risk RATE+ risk coupling speed 10+ risk coupling speed 11

(3) there is the rate variable being pointed to result event between causal event by the level variable of reason event, Expressing the reason event risk coupling amount to result event, this coupling amount is affected by the different coefficients of coup, and the coefficient of coup Depend on the situation of correlative coupling factor.Hereinafter lift two exemplary to illustrate.

1. the coefficient of coup 1.The coefficient of coup 1 affects the building enclosure risk of distortion amount coupling amount to base bottom heave, and it takes Value is affected by two coupling factors, i.e. building enclosure type and building enclosure enters rock situation.Its equation is as follows:

(building enclosure enters rock situation=0:AND: building enclosure type=0,0.025, IF THEN to IF THEN ELSE ELSE (building enclosure enters rock situation=1:AND: building enclosure type=1,0.1,0.05))

In formula, building enclosure enters rock situation=0 and represents building enclosure and enter rock, and building enclosure enters rock situation=1 and represents and go along with sb. to guard him Structure does not enters rock；It is diaphram wall that building enclosure type=0 represents building enclosure, and building enclosure type=1 represents and goes along with sb. to guard him knot Structure is campshed.

The rule that this formula is expressed is: in the case of building enclosure enters rock and is diaphram wall, the coefficient of coup is 0.025； Building enclosure does not enters rock and in the case of campshed；The coefficient of coup is 0.1, is 0.05 in the case of other.

Risk coupling speed 1 represents the building enclosure deformation risk coupling amount to base bottom heave, and it is shadow variable Time, building enclosure risk of distortion amount and the function of the coefficient of coup 1, its equation is:

IF THEN ELSE (Time≤40, the building enclosure risk of distortion amount * coefficient of coup 1,0)

The rule that this formula is expressed is: if the time was less than or equal to 40 days, and risk coupling speed 1 deforms wind equal to building enclosure Danger amount and the product of the coefficient of coup 1；Other times section, risk coupling speed 1 is 0.Its engineering connotation is, pacifies according to construction speed Row, after 40 working days, foundation ditch back cover, the occurrence degree of this sign event of base bottom heave is considered to stop, therefore The most risky amount inputs, and base bottom heave is 0 with the degree of coupling of building enclosure deformation, and both are separate.

2. the coefficient of coup 6.The coefficient of coup 6 affects several risk coupling speed simultaneously, in risk coupling speed 11, and its shadow Xiangshui County's pipe risk of leakage amount coupling amount to building enclosure Sand.Under Water pipe leaking will cause and uprush constantly outside foundation ditch Water, waterproof ability vertical to building enclosure has great impact.Therefore, the coefficient of coup 6 is relevant with building enclosure type.Its equation is such as Under:

IF THEN ELSE (building enclosure type=0,0.025,0.075)

In formula, it is diaphram wall that building enclosure type=0 represents building enclosure.The engineering connotation that this formula is expressed is, as Really building enclosure is diaphram wall, then its risk coefficient of coup is less, and if campshed, the risk coefficient of coup is bigger.Underground Diaphragm wall has the strongest system stiffness and water resistance, is the one that in conventional building enclosure, water-retaining capacity is the strongest.

(4) evaluation calculation.

1. start time point at first stage to complete once to evaluate, interval with this grade evaluation of estimate according to evaluation result Low value is as the initial value of respective level variable.It is can not that the hydrops bubble groove first stage as at the bottom of foundation ditch starts the evaluation result of time point Can, then set the level variable initial value of hydrops bubble groove at the bottom of foundation ditch as 0；If evaluation result is once in a while, then set initial Value is 100.

2. starting the evaluation calculation of continuous ten days, in evaluation procedure, each event level variable can carry out the accumulation each event of expression Build-up effect.

3. the beginning time point in second stage completes the second assessment.Danger factor is caused for the first kind on last stage (carry For the cause danger factor of risk energy) this stage is had the event of long lasting effect, then compare this evaluation of estimate and final value on last stage Size, takes large values as this stage initial value；Danger factor is caused for the first kind on last stage this stage is not had long lasting effect Event, then take the interval minima of evaluation of estimate belonging to this Phase Evaluation grade as this stage initial value.

Hydrops bubble groove event as at the bottom of foundation ditch, groundwater condition is that the first kind causes danger factor, once increases along with cutting depth And change, the impact of event is just disappeared by the character of upper strata subsoil water；But also some event belongs to the former, as building enclosure is gushed Swelling sand event, no matter the excavation of foundation pit degree of depth is wherein, upper strata subsoil water all produces long lasting effect to this event.

Complete each Phase Evaluation the most according to this.

(5) the model calculation analysis

1. at the bottom of hydrops at the bottom of foundation ditch steeps groove and foundation ditch, Sand has the least risk possibility occurrence in the construction first stage Evaluation of estimate, main cause is to have shallow-layer backwater and soil property bad (miscellaneous fill)；The 2nd, the 3rd stage is due to without subsoil water and soil property For cohesive soil, its risk possibility occurrence evaluation of estimate is 0；The highest at the 4th stage Risk, because having artesian water and base in this stage The inside and outside head difference in hole is very big, and soil property is that sandy soil is very sensitive to subsoil water；5th, the 6th, the 7th stage due to foundation ditch back cover, Risk possibility occurrence evaluation of estimate reverts to 0.

2. bracing members unstability risk presents with the change of building enclosure deformation extent always and changes in the same direction.From construction first Stage starts its risk amount and is rising the most always, until the 7th stage, owing to all bracing members are removed the most, then this risk occurs Probability evaluation of estimate is 0.

3. the evaluation of estimate of building enclosure deformation extent is by Sand, base bottom heave, bracing members unstability, week at the bottom of foundation ditch The several event of limit ground settlement risk coupling, construction the first stage from 0 start to accumulate gradually until construction the 7th stage, by Yu Weiqi provides several reason event evaluation values of risk stream to be 0, then the evaluation of estimate of this event is also stablized motionless.

4. building enclosure Sand be loss event be also elementary event, itself by influence on groundwater, enclose simultaneously The increase of protection structure deformation extent can reduce the seal of building enclosure, weakens Equations of The Second Kind and causes danger factor (coupling factor) suppression wind The ability of danger, and the increase of periphery Water pipe leaking risk assessment value also can strengthen the first kind and cause danger factor to building enclosure retention of excessive fluid Gush the impact of sand risk case.Therefore this risk possibility occurrence evaluation of estimate is oozed due to building enclosure deformation extent and periphery water pipe The long lasting effect of leakage increased in the full construction stage always, until construction terminates.

5. Ground Settlement degree is a sign event, by base bottom heave, building enclosure deformation, building enclosure Sand and precipitation cause the impact of ground settlement event.Owing to the full work progress of Ground Settlement degree is all by reason The impact of event, therefore its evaluation of estimate persistently rises in whole process.

6. periphery Water pipe leaking is directly affected by Ground Settlement, Ground Settlement be its first kind cause danger because of Element, and the material of water pipe itself, pressure type and the distance with foundation ditch are Equations of The Second Kinds cause danger factor (coupling factor), determine The size of risk coupling amount.Owing to the evaluation of estimate of Ground Settlement degree continues to increase in overall process, therefore this risk case Risk possibility occurrence evaluation of estimate also whole process continue to increase.

7. base bottom heave degree is an elementary event, is also a sign event.Its evaluation of estimate is along with excavation of foundation pit The increase of the degree of depth and increase, deformed by Ground Settlement and building enclosure is affected simultaneously.Along with construction fourth stage end At the bottom of foundation ditch underseal, the evaluation of estimate of this event returns 0 in the construction stage behind.

8. precipitation causes Ground Settlement to be an elementary event, is a part of reason causing Ground Settlement. The Ground Settlement caused due to precipitation is the most relevant to construction speed, therefore this event as an elementary event from periphery Ground settlement event is separated.The direct inducement of this event is that between the soil body that artificial dewatering causes, space increases Add, make soil body granule rearrange under gravity.So this event is an elementary event, its ground settlement degree exists The the 1st, the 2nd and the 3rd stage of constructing is 0, because these 3 stages do not have artificial rainmaking.From the 4th stage of construction, artificial rainmaking Starting and be continued until that construction terminates, therefore its risk possibility occurrence evaluation of estimate starts sustainable growth from the 4th stage, to In 5 stages, the soil body subsidence effect that it causes terminates, and the evaluation of estimate of latter two construction stage keeps constant.

9. periphery buildings or structures damage and building enclosure to cave in be the top loss event of whole risk system, it causes Loss be all catastrophic.Unique inducement of two events is respectively Ground Settlement and building enclosure deformation.The most straight Connect the risk possibility occurrence evaluation of estimate representing two events by the evaluation of estimate of Ground Settlement and building enclosure deformation.But Caving in event for building enclosure, along with the progress of deep-foundation pit engineering agent structure, its possibility occurrence declines to a great extent.Therefore, The equation of this variable is designed to a function relevant with the time.Specific as follows:

IF THEN ELSE (Time≤50, building enclosure deformation extent evaluation of estimate, IF THEN ELSE (Time > 60,0, 10))

The engineering connotation of this formula is that its risk is become by building enclosure before negative two layers of completion of deep-foundation pit engineering agent structure The impact of shape degree, when after negative two layers of completion, the foundation pit enclosure structure ratio that buries is greatly increased, and the completion of negative two layers makes to go along with sb. to guard him knot It is infinitely great that structure can be assumed to be rigidity at negative two layers with lower part, and the ability that opposing is caved in significantly rises, and its risk occurs Probability evaluation of estimate is directly judged to rare；When negative one layer completes, and the risk that building enclosure is caved in can be determined that as impossible 's.

In above 11 security risk events, having 6 loss events, they are in the evaluation of estimate change in each stage of constructing.

10., for any one level variable, after model evaluation completes, source can be flowed into according to its all risk, Any time, investigate the risk amount size (investigating each rate variable flowing into this level variable) in each source, it can be determined that cause The main cause event of this level variable value of this moment and secondary cause event.This information has great meaning for real work Justice, can instruct policymaker, for the emphasis risk that risk assessment value is the highest, takes to control targetedly at reasonable time The measure development of main cause event (control), so can concentrate limited resource in emphasis, improve safety management efficiency and Quality.Owing to rate variable each in model is a lot, length is limited, and the process data of each rate variable is not listed, but can be Vensim module is called at any time.

(11) determining the possibility occurrence grade of each loss event, its equation in vensim module is:

(< (each risk may occur 10,0, IF THEN ELSE each risk possibility occurrence evaluation of estimate IF THEN ELSE Property evaluation of estimate>=10:AND: each risk possibility occurrence evaluation of estimate<100,10, IF THEN ELSE (each risk possibility occurrence Evaluation of estimate>=100:AND: each risk possibility occurrence evaluation of estimate<1000,20, IF THEN ELSE (each risk possibility occurrence Evaluation of estimate>and=1000:AND: each risk possibility occurrence evaluation of estimate<10000,30,40)))), wherein 0,10,20,30,40 points Do not represent impossible, rare, once in a while, possible and 5 grades frequently.

(6) risk class evaluation result.The evaluation of risk class to be completed has needed risk possibility occurrence grade to comment Valency and risk of loss grade are evaluated.Loss grade evaluation for risk case is mainly entered from the angle of personnel and economic loss OK, evaluation methodology and the standard of loss grade are made that in detail by " urban track traffic underground engineering construction risk management specification " These 6 loss events are carried out several rounds of discussion and evaluation through tissue expert by regulation, determine the damage of these 6 loss events respectively Lose grade.Utilization " urban track traffic underground engineering construction risk management specification " calibrates standard really about risk class complete Each risk class evaluation losing event.

Claims (8)

1. a deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security evaluation knowledge base, it is characterised in that described knowledge base includes project engineering method information Word bank, security risk event word bank, cause danger factor word bank, elementary event evaluation rule word bank, coupled relation word bank and risk etc. Level evaluation rule word bank；

Described project engineering method information word bank is for by the engineering method message structure of arrangement and method for construction；

Described security risk event word bank is for storing title and coding, the character of risk case, the risk of security risk event The loss grade of event, Pre-control measures；Described security risk event word bank is according to the feature of risk case self and whole The effect played in project security risk system is different, is elementary event, sign event and damage by each security risk event definition Accident three event property of part, each risk case possesses one to two event property；

The described danger factor word bank that causes is for the cause danger factor that associate with elementary event of storage, and defines and cause dangerous all of factor and take Value, definition cause danger factor associates with elementary event, and this association is in fact the evaluation rule format of elementary event；

Described elementary event evaluation rule word bank is used for storing each elementary event evaluation rule；

Described coupled relation word bank carries out the basic parameter needed for coupling calculates for storage, carries for carrying out multi-risk System evaluation calculation For necessary design conditions；

According to loss event possibility occurrence grade and the various combination of loss grade in described risk class evaluation rule word bank, Mark corresponding risk class class label, set up risk class evaluation rule, to realize the ultimate risk grade to loss event Evaluate.

Deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security the most according to claim 1 evaluation knowledge base, it is characterised in that: described basic thing Part, sign event and loss event particularly as follows:

(1) elementary event: during Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering, the inducement that elementary event occurs arises directly from construction speed, Extension along with construction speed so that the relevant property value causing danger factor constantly changes, and directly results in elementary event The probability size of occurrence risk changes；Elementary event is divided into two classes, respectively has the elementary event of sign event property With the elementary event damaging mistake event property；

(2) sign event: during Construction of Deep Excavation Engineering, the probability that sign event occurs the most necessarily is sent out very greatly Raw, but it occurs not bring loss at once, sign event is if subjected to effective control then will not bring actual loss, and such as It is improper that fruit controls, and may cause successor and bring loss；

(3) loss event: refer to directly bring the event of personnel and property loss, must avoid event in construction, damages Accident part is directly or indirectly caused by sign event or elementary event, and its event possibility occurrence is to carry out risk with these events The result of coupling；Loss event can also oneself inherently elementary event, its event possibility occurrence is only associated by with self The impact of cause danger factor, this type of loss event is owing to having elementary event character, and its risk stream produced will affect other events.

Deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security the most according to claim 1 evaluation knowledge base, it is characterised in that: described basic thing By compiling the original construction information of conventional project under construction in part evaluation rule word bank, with security risk each in actual items Condition premised on the cause danger factor value of event, in construction note, corresponding Safety Management Measures is as foundation, with production table Show that method is form, set up each elementary event in all possible risk possibility occurrence grade caused under the factor valued combinations of danger；

Described original construction information include design drawing, survey data, arrangement and method for construction, construction journal, supervision diary, meeting record Want.

Deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security the most according to claim 1 evaluation knowledge base, it is characterised in that: described basic thing In part evaluation rule word bank, each elementary event evaluation rule uses production KR, and elementary event evaluation rule is by precondition Forming with decision variable, wherein precondition is the cause danger factor valued combinations of elementary event, and decision variable is elementary event Possibility occurrence grade or occurrence degree grade, whole evaluation rule quantity of any one concrete elementary event are this basic thing Part all preconditions value number is long-pending.

Deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security the most according to claim 4 evaluation knowledge base, it is characterised in that: the wind of elementary event The determination method of danger accumulation rate is:

(1) for having the elementary event of sign event property:

First, choose in conventional deep-foundation pit engineering project and multiple completed there is identical foundation ditch design form such as building enclosure With the project of support system, observe its relevant Monitoring Data in construction each stage, obtain its event generation journey in each stage Degree opinion rating；Then according to the engineering time in each stage of construction journal record, reversely calculate that average product tires out rate, thus obtain The accumulation rate of each opinion rating；The data of last comprehensive multiple projects carry out average value processing and obtain the estimated value of accumulation rate；

(2) have loss event property elementary event:

First, multiple completed deep-foundation pit engineering with identical foundation ditch design form such as building enclosure and support system is chosen Project, the experts' evaluation result before going into operation with projects is as foundation, and the risk possibility occurrence of each construction stage of identifying project is commented It is worth, then the opinion rating in each stage is labeled, with executing of each stage with the maximum that the evaluation of estimate of its correspondence is interval The work persistent period is time shaft, reversely calculates that average product tires out rate, and the reckoning result of comprehensive multiple projects obtains the generation of each risk can The accumulation rate estimated value of energy property grade.

Deep foundation pit construction Scheme Security the most according to claim 1 evaluation knowledge base, it is characterised in that: coupling event group The determination method of the coefficient of coup is:

As a example by base bottom heave, building enclosure deformation and three events of Ground Settlement, between three events, there is coupling Effect, base bottom heave degree and Ground Settlement degree all can affect building enclosure deformation extent, if A and C is respectively week Limit ground settlement and the accumulative monitor value of base bottom heave, B is building enclosure rate of deformation monitor value, is placed in by 3 ordered series of numbers same On one time shaft, then:

$Cov(A,B)=E\left(\right(A-\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{A}\left)\right(B-\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{B}\left)\right)=\&lsqb;{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}_{i=1}^n(a_i-\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{A})(b_i-\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{B})\&rsqb;/n$

$Cov(C,B)=E\left(\right(C-\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{C}\left)\right(B-\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{B}\left)\right)=\&lsqb;{\mathrm{\&Sigma;}}_{i=1}^n(c_i-\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{A})(b_i-\stackrel{\&OverBar;}{B})\&rsqb;/n$

Then building enclosure deformation with the coefficient of coup of Ground Settlement is:

ρ_AB=Cov (A, B)/[Cov (A, B)+Cov (C, B)]

Building enclosure deformation with the coefficient of coup of base bottom heave is:

ρ_CB=Cov (C, B)/[Cov (A, B)+Cov (C, B)].

7. a deep foundation pit construction scheme automatic safe evaluation methodology based on security knowledge base described in claim 1, its feature It is to comprise the following steps:

(1) the main engineering method information of arrangement and method for construction is carried out structuring process under the framework of project engineering method information word bank；

(2) based on structurized project engineering method information, retrieve security risk event word bank, extract all and project engineering method information The security risk event being associated generates risk identification inventory, owing to security risk event word bank defines each security risk thing The reason event of part and result event, therefore also comprise reason event and the result event letter of each security risk event in this inventory Breath；

(3) based on the elementary event in risk identification inventory, retrieval causes danger factor word bank, for each base in risk identification inventory Present event coupling is corresponding causes danger factor；

(4) with its result event, security risk event being formed a coupling event group, risk identification inventory contains each safety Risk case and result event information thereof, i.e. contain multiple coupling event group；The each coupling being then based in risk identification inventory Close event group, retrieve coupled relation word bank, mate corresponding coupling factor for each coupling event group；

(5) set up evaluation model, be each cause danger factor and coupling factor assignment based on arrangement and method for construction information；

(6) retrieval evaluation rule word bank, determines initial evaluation value for each elementary event；

(7) retrieval coupled relation word bank, determines coupled systemes numerical value for each coupling event group；

(8) evaluation calculation of full construction time is completed；

(9) output evaluation result.

Deep foundation pit construction scheme automatic safe evaluation methodology the most according to claim 7, it is characterised in that: in step (5) Corresponding evaluation model builds principle:

(1) elementary event is the risk sources of whole risk system, it is necessary to evaluate rules evaluation its at the wind of each construction stage Danger size, causes danger factor and occurs in a model with the form of auxiliary variable；

(2) non-elementary event, its risk size is determined by coupling effect；

(3) with the time as axle, each danger factor value within the whole construction time that causes of all elementary events is all shadow variable The function of " Time "；

(4) loss event level variable indicates its possibility occurrence evaluation of estimate, and sign event also indicates with level variable, but mark Show is its occurrence degree evaluation of estimate；

(5) coupling effect is determined by the coefficient of coup, and the size of the coefficient of coup is determined by the coupling factor being associated.