CN105761018A - Vaporous cloud explosion accident risk analysis method construction and enforcement - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention combines a butterfly tie method, a TNT equivalent method, an overpressure criterion and a risk matrix method, and constructs a vaporous cloud explosion accident risk analysis method based on probabilities and consequences under the effect of a safety barrier. The method can be applied to the petrochemical industry to perform risk decision on vaporous cloud explosion accidents and to guide enterprise safe production. The method is characterized by being capable of analyzing accident reasons and consequences, displaying the influence of the accident development process and safety barrier to accident development, calculating a vaporous cloud explosion generation probability under the effect of the safety barrier, analyzing the accident influence to human beings and building structures, determining accident risks based on the accident influence, and making risk analysis more comprehensive and concrete.
Description
Technical field
The invention provides the structure of a kind of vaporous cloud explosion accident risk analysis method and enforcement, belong to safety engineering research field, be specifically related to prevention and the control of vaporous cloud explosion accident.
Background technology
Vaporous cloud blast is a kind of catastrophic failure being mainly in petrochemical industry, and damage sequence has scale, intensification feature.It, once occur personnel, equipment, construction of structures or even environment to be caused great destruction, causes serious impact to enterprise and society.
Current vaporous cloud explosion accident risk assessment focuses primarily upon cause of accident, accident consequence analysis, can assess vaporous cloud risk of explosion to a certain extent.But accident risk depends not only on damage sequence, but also relevant with the probability that accident occurs, the safety control measures taked, so it is contemplated that the impact of these factors in risk analysis.
Butterfly connection is capable of identify that and assesses risk, analyzes factors causing disaster, arranges safety curtain, shows that safety curtain is at the developing impact of accident and effect, quantitative Analysis contingency occurrence probability；The main harm of vaporous cloud blast is positive pressure of shock wave, and TNT Equivalent method and superpressure criterion are conventional vaporous cloud explosion analysis methods；Risk matrix method is a kind of accident analysis method based on probability Yu consequence, it considers that risk size is determined by sequence severity and accident probability, including sequence severity grade and accident probability grade.The present invention is in conjunction with said method feature in risk analysis, it is proposed to a kind of vaporous cloud Explosion Risk Analysis method based on probability, consequence, analyzes the method for vaporous cloud explosion accident risk under safety curtain effect.
Summary of the invention
In order to solve Problems existing in vaporous cloud Explosion Risk Analysis, the present invention provides structure and the enforcement of a kind of vaporous cloud explosion accident risk analysis method, mainly includes probability analysis, consequences analysis, risk analysis.This invention can not only qualitative analysis vaporous cloud blast reason and consequence, represent the impact that accident is developed by safety curtain, can also quantitative Analysis under safety curtain effect vaporous cloud blast occur probability, consequence, assess vaporous cloud explosion accident risk based on probability and consequence, make risk analysis more comprehensive.
Technical scheme:
The structure of a kind of vaporous cloud explosion accident risk analysis method and enforcement, it is characterised in that combination butterfly connection, TNT Equivalent method, superpressure criterion, risk matrix method structure build risk analysis pattern and vaporous cloud explosion accident risk under safety curtain effect is analyzed.
The structure of a kind of vaporous cloud explosion accident risk analysis method and enforcement, it is characterised in that include implementing as follows step:
(1) introduction of object of study and risk analysis: selected analyze object, carries out risk analysis to analyzing object, it may be judged whether there is potential vaporous cloud explosion accident；
(2) under safety curtain effect, vaporous cloud explosion probability is analyzed: select top event, Primary Construction bowknot structure chart；Based on ARAMIS system, safety curtain carried out identification and performance evaluation；Build complete bowknot structure chart on this basis, calculate vaporous cloud explosion accident probability of happening；
(3) vaporous cloud blast consequences analysis: utilize the consequence that vaporous cloud is exploded by TNT Equivalent method, superpressure criterion to be analyzed, and carry out dangerous severity division according to its extent of injury that human body is caused；
Shown in TNT equivalent calculation formula following (1):
WTNT=αeWfHf/HTNT(1)
In formula, WTNTFor TNT equivalent (kg)；HfThe combustion heat (MJ/kg) for fuel；HTNTQuick-fried heat (MJ/kg) for TNT；αeFor TNT equivalent coefficient；
(4) risk analysis: based on accident probability and sequence severity, utilizes risk Metrics to judge the vaporous cloud risk of explosion grade under safety curtain effect；
(5) discussion of results and analysis: the probability level obtained, damage sequence, risk indicator are summarized, collected；Analyze risk indicator, control to provide guidance instruction for enterprise's vaporous cloud risk of explosion.
Beneficial effects of the present invention: the present invention is combined with butterfly connection, TNT Equivalent method, superpressure criterion, risk matrix method, construct vaporous cloud Explosion Risk Analysis method, cause of accident consequence can not only be analyzed, represent the safety curtain impact on accident, and energy quantitative Analysis contingency occurrence probability, consequence, analyze accident risk.Risk analysis considers safety curtain, probability, the consequence impact on risk, overcomes vaporous cloud Explosion Risk Analysis Problems existing.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is vaporous cloud explosion accident risk analysis method flow chart
Fig. 2 is preliminary bowknot structure chart
Fig. 3 is complete bowknot structure chart
Detailed description of the invention
The present invention can clearly understand reason and the accident development that vaporous cloud explosion accident occurs, analyze vaporous cloud explosion probability under safe safety curtain effect, consequence is predicted, based on probability and consequence assessment accident risk, controls to provide reference for enterprise's vaporous cloud risk of explosion.
In order to make the purpose of invention, technical scheme and advantage clearly understand, in conjunction with accompanying drawing and example, the present invention is further described.It is to be understood that instantiation described herein is only in order to explain the present invention, is not limited to the present invention.
Step 1: the introduction of object of study and risk analysis
(1) object of study introduction
Preliminary selected analysis object, is introduced dangerous matter sources, and the content of introduction mainly includes the region (such as personnel concentration zones, hazardous equipment region) of the position of dangerous matter sources, surrounding enviroment and sensitivity.
(2) risk analysis
For selected analysis object, the leakage point, the incendiary source that exist from the natrual danger of material, this object are analyzed, judge whether this object of study has the indispensable element that vaporous cloud explosion accident occurs, and then judge whether this analysis object has potential vaporous cloud explosion hazard.Then, the forming process of vaporous cloud explosion accident is analyzed, it is judged that whether disclosure satisfy that, on the basis of indispensable detonation factors, the formation condition that vaporous cloud explodes.
Step 2: under safety curtain effect, vaporous cloud explosion probability is analyzed
(1) structure of preliminary bowknot structure chart
Cause that the main cause of vaporous cloud explosion accident is to reveal, according to the analysis of leak point in " risk analysis ", select leakage pattern, to reveal pattern for top event, utilize accident tree, event tree method, the reason that qualitative analysis top event occurs and the consequence caused, build the preliminary bowknot structure chart without safety curtain.
(2) safety curtain identification and performance evaluation
According to the definition of safety curtain in ARAMIS system, the safety curtain existed in object is analyzed in the classification identification of safety barrier function, classification, and the effect of the function of safety curtain, performance is illustrated, illustrates.
The performance evaluation of safety curtain has been carried out corresponding explanation by ARAMIS system, typically via 3 indexs: effectiveness (E), response time (RT), three parameters of confidence level (LC) react its level of performance.What utilize in calculating process due to the present invention is confidence level, so mainly considering the analysis of confidence level, assessment in evaluation process.Table 1, table 2 are respectively define the relation between dangerous failure probability and confidence level.
Table 1 safety curtain requires the relation of failure probability and confidence level under operation low
| LC | The average probability of failure on demand (low requirement operation) of complete design functionality required |
| LC4 | 10-5≤ P < 10-4 |
| LC3 | 10-4≤ P < 10-3 |
| LC2 | 10-3≤ P < 10-2 |
| LC1 | 10-2≤ P < 10-1 |
Table 2 safety curtain is the relation of failure probability and confidence level under high request or continuous operation mode
| LC | The average probability of failure on demand (high request or continuous operation) of complete design functionality required |
| LC4 | 10-9≤ P < 10-8 |
| LC3 | 10-8≤ P < 10-7 |
| LC2 | 10-7≤ P < 10-6 |
| LC1 | 10-6≤ P < 10-5 |
It should be noted that LC4 is the highest confidence level, the confidence level of this rank is difficult to appearance in process industrial.
(3) probability level calculates
The probability that top event occurs adopts the failure probability of primary event frequency and safety curtain, the method that namely confidence level combines.On this basis, in event tree, calculate, by the transmission of probability, the probability that vaporous cloud blast occurs.Table 3 gives primary event probability of happening.
First safety curtain is arranged in the bowknot structure chart of Primary Construction according to the object of the function played and effect, thus setting up complete bowknot structure chart.Then the probability of primary event generation and the transmission probability of pond accumulation, light a fire (igniting immediately, late ignition), vaporous cloud blast are obtained.The method to set up in structure chart of safety curtain, method for calculating probability and related data have been carried out corresponding regulation by ARAMIS system.
Table 3 primary event frequency
Step 3: vaporous cloud blast consequences analysis
Utilizing the consequence that vaporous cloud is exploded by TNT Equivalent method, superpressure criterion to be analyzed, and carry out dangerous severity division according to its extent of injury that human body is caused, Severity gradation is in Table 4.
Shown in TNT equivalent calculation formula following (1):
WTNT=αeWfHf/HTNT(1)
In formula, WTNTFor TNT equivalent (kg)；HfThe combustion heat (MJ/kg) for fuel；HTNTQuick-fried heat (MJ/kg) for TNT；αeFor TNT equivalent coefficient.
The dangerous Severity gradation of table 4
| Dangerous severity | Extent of injury to human body | Superpressure (Δ P/MPa) |
| I is fatal | Cause (major part) personnel death | > 0.10 |
| II is serious | The internal organs of people are subject to serious damage | 0.05～0.10 |
| III danger | The organon auditus of damage people or generation fracture | 0.03～0.05 |
| IV is insignificant | Human body is subject to slight damage or fanout free region | < 0.03 |
Step 4: risk analysis
Based on accident probability and sequence severity, risk Metrics is utilized to judge the VCEs risk class under safety curtain effect.The determination of risk adopts the hazard assessment matrix in MILSTD-882D standard (U.S.'s MS Military Standards-security of system).Shown in Risk Analysis Matrix chart 5, table 6.
Table 5 hazard assessment matrix
Table 6 hazard assessment standard
| Sequence | 1～5 | 6～9 | 10～17 | 18～20 |
| Grade | High | Higher | Medium | Low |
Step 5: discussion of results and analysis
(1) displaying of result is analyzed: vaporous cloud explosion probability index that research on utilization pattern is obtained, affect consequence and risk indicator is summarized, concluded.
(2) risk indicator analysis
1) if risk class is medium or low, illustrate that safety curtain disclosure satisfy that risk control requirement substantially, no longer carry out the increase of risk control measure.
2) if risk class is high or higher, illustrate that safety curtain fails to reach the target of risk control, it is necessary to carry out perfect.
If 1. probability level controls better, to make the occurrence frequency of accident be in below low frequency, and consequence is more serious, it is necessary to carry out perfect from reducing damage sequence aspect to safety curtain aspect, to the degree of risk of reduction accident；
If 2. consequence impact is not very serious, and the controlling extent of probability level is relatively low, it is necessary to improve safety curtain from reducing accident probability aspect, to reducing the probability that vaporous cloud blast occurs.
If 3. probability level, risk severity are all higher, it is necessary to control from probability and damage sequence controls two aspects and improves safety curtain, to reduce the probability of happening of accident, to alleviate the consequence of accident, reduce risk.
(3) it is no matter meet requirement or the situation of backlog demand is required for measure that original and newly-increased safety curtain proposes safeguard in risk.
It is analyzed for certain petro-chemical corporation's high density polyethylene (HDPE) reactor.
Step 1: the introduction of object of study and risk analysis
(1) object of study introduction
Primary raw material in reactor is ethylene, reserves 15t.Reactor is positioned at high density polyethylene device district, and the sensitizing range of periphery is intermediate tank farm, LDPE Plant, polypropylene plant, solid storehouse.Wherein solid storehouse due to handling requirement personnel more, for personnel's close quarters.Above-mentioned zone and distance respectively 50m, 37m, 45m, 40m of analyzing object.
(2) risk analysis
Analyze the probability of this storage tank generation vaporous cloud explosion hazard accident from physical hazard characteristic, source of leaks, 3 necessary factors of incendiary source, predict the formation of explosion accident on this basis.
1) factorial analysis
Material natrual danger: ethylene is 2.1 class inflammable gases, flash-point-135 DEG C, explosion limit 2.7-36%, is mixed to form explosive mixture with air, meets naked light, Gao Re or has the danger of combustion explosion with oxidising agent
Source of leaks is analyzed: can reveal in the flowing of material, conveying, course of reaction, and the form of leakage has valve leaks, and reactor break, crack are revealed, and flange, valve, interface are revealed, the leakage that line break, the inefficacy of burn into pipeline welding place cause.
Incendiary source is analyzed: incendiary source is one of principal element of causing vaporous cloud explosion accident to occur, the incendiary source existed in this region mainly has: naked light, friction and shock, electricity burning things which may cause a fire disaster, electrostatic spark, when electrostatic grounding or lead except measure bad more increase the frequency that explosion accident occurs.
2) accident forming process is analyzed
The indispensable element forecast analysis object formed from vaporous cloud explosion accident has the possibility forming vaporous cloud blast, the formation of lower surface analysis accident:
The ethylene stored is the liquid gas of pressurization, has inflammable and explosive characteristic.When the leakage point generation instantaneous leak of reactor, liquefied gas is known from experience gasification rapidly and is formed steam, causes that steam acutely spreads and fills the air formation premix cloud cluster；When reactor leakage point occurs to continue to leak, gasifying gas is through diffuseing to form premix cloud.Owing to this reaction is successive reaction, if cutting off material not in time can cause a large amount of leakages of material, and in device district, equipment is arranged intensive, once occur leak materials to be easy to assemble, bigger cloud cluster can be formed, meanwhile, be subject to the severe degree of the impact very easily furniture blast of barrier.After the premix cloud formed reaches explosion limit experience late ignition, such as frictional impact spark, electric spark, be struck by lightning spark, fricative electrostatic spark etc. during fast leak, and vaporous cloud blast occurs.
Step 2: under safety curtain effect, vaporous cloud explosion probability is analyzed
(1) structure of preliminary bowknot structure chart
Choosing " the reactor Large Area Cracking " that may result in the blast of bigger vaporous cloud is top event, by event tree, event tree analysis, finds out the reason that top event occurs and the consequence caused, tentatively sets up bowknot structure chart, such as Fig. 2.
(2) safety curtain identification and performance evaluation
The function of the safety curtain that enterprise takes, active position, performance evaluation are in Table 7.
Table 7 safety curtain and performance analysis
(3) probability level calculates
Setting up complete bowknot structure chart as shown in Figure 3, cause that the primary event of " reactor Large Area Cracking " and probability are in Table 8, are calculated by bowknot structure chart, top event probability is 4.1 × 10-7In/year, vaporous cloud explosion probability is 6.2 × 10-8/ year.
Table 8 primary event probability
| Primary event | Probability |
| Relief valve lost efficacy | 1×10-3 |
| Side reaction | 1×10-1 |
| Control signal mistake | 1×10-2 |
| Mistake | 1×10-1 |
| External fire | 1×10-3 |
Step 3: vaporous cloud blast consequences analysis
The type that reactor is revealed is Large Area Cracking, it is assumed that during cracking, material leaks completely, and the material revealed is gasified totally as the fuel in vaporous cloud.According to TNT equivalent model, during reactor Large Area Cracking, the TNT equivalent of ethylene gas is: WTNT=9021.6kg, and the superpressure that vaporous cloud blast produces is destroyed in Table 9.
Harm that table 9 superpressure causes and destruction
Step 4: risk analysis
Based on probability and the sequence severity of vaporous cloud blast, the risk class in each region is in Table 10.
Table 10 accident risk grade
Step 5: discussion of results and analysis
(1) frequency exploded by vaporous cloud under the known safety curtain effect of risk analysis is 6.2 × 10-8In/year, the injury severity that the intermediate tank farm at 50m, 37m, 45m, 40m place, low close device, polypropylene plant, solid storehouse are caused is respectively serious, fatal, fatal, fatal, and risk class corresponding to each region is medium.Effect due to safety curtain so that the probability of vaporous cloud blast is reduced to 10-6Below/year the order of magnitude, even if each Regional Risk severity is higher, integrated risk is still in " medium " acceptable level, so safety curtain need not further be arranged.
(2) in order to ensure the reliability service of existing safety curtain, by risk control in this level or following, it is necessary to safety curtain is carried out regular management.Safety curtain for equipment class should be equipped with professional personnel, regular expansion checking maintenance.For the safety curtain of personnel's class, not only need regular, training education targetedly, in addition it is also necessary to result of training is examined.For identify class safety curtain, regular inspection guarantee mark complete, accurate, eye-catching and with this region mate correctness.
The reserves of material make more greatly the consequence impact suffered by sensitizing range serious.But it is because the requirement of production capacity, this severity degree is inevitable, so just should slow down the impact of consequence from Material control aspect, in equipment checking maintenance process, more to pay attention to material termination, emergency cut-off, signal control etc. being monitored, cutting off the guarantee of the reliability of equipment.
Claims (2)
1. the structure of a vaporous cloud explosion accident risk analysis method and enforcement, it is characterised in that be combined with butterfly connection, reason that accident under safety curtain effect is occurred by TNT Equivalent method, superpressure criterion, risk matrix method and consequence are analyzed.
2. the structure of a kind of vaporous cloud explosion accident risk analysis method as claimed in claim 1 and enforcement, it is characterised in that construct analytical procedure:
(1) introduction of object of study and risk analysis: selected analyze object, carries out risk analysis to analyzing object, it may be judged whether there is potential vaporous cloud explosion accident；
(2) under safety curtain effect, vaporous cloud explosion probability is analyzed: select top event, Primary Construction bowknot structure chart；Based on ARAMIS system, safety curtain carried out identification and performance evaluation；Build complete bowknot structure chart on this basis, calculate vaporous cloud explosion accident probability of happening；
(3) vaporous cloud blast consequences analysis: utilize the consequence that vaporous cloud is exploded by TNT Equivalent method, superpressure criterion to be analyzed, and carry out dangerous severity division according to its extent of injury that human body is caused；
Shown in TNT equivalent calculation formula following (1):
WTNT=αeWtHf/HTNT(1)
In formula, WTNTFor TNT equivalent (kg)；HfThe combustion heat (MJ/kg) for fuel；HTNTQuick-fried heat (MJ/kg) for TNT；For TNT equivalent coefficient；
(4) risk analysis: based on accident probability and sequence severity, utilizes risk Metrics to judge the vaporous cloud risk of explosion grade under safety curtain effect；
(5) discussion of results and analysis: the probability level obtained, damage sequence, risk indicator are summarized, collected；Analyze risk indicator, control to provide guidance instruction for enterprise's vaporous cloud risk of explosion.
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| CN106920035A (en) * | 2017-02-15 | 2017-07-04 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | A kind of marine oil and gas platform fire incident consequence quantitative estimation method |
| CN106934524A (en) * | 2017-02-15 | 2017-07-07 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | A kind of marine oil and gas platform explosion accident consequence quantitative estimation method |
| CN110348756A (en) * | 2019-07-17 | 2019-10-18 | 北京石油化工学院 | A kind of Safety of Gas Station appraisal procedure based on safety curtain model |
| CN111160676A (en) * | 2018-11-08 | 2020-05-15 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Risk determination method and device based on risk matrix |
| CN112540103A (en) * | 2019-09-20 | 2021-03-23 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | System, method and terminal for detecting anti-explosion performance of structure |
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| CN117648877A (en) * | 2024-01-30 | 2024-03-05 | 南京财经大学 | Dangerous goods explosion result prediction method and system based on QSAR model |
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| CN106920035A (en) * | 2017-02-15 | 2017-07-04 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | A kind of marine oil and gas platform fire incident consequence quantitative estimation method |
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| CN110348756A (en) * | 2019-07-17 | 2019-10-18 | 北京石油化工学院 | A kind of Safety of Gas Station appraisal procedure based on safety curtain model |
| CN112540103A (en) * | 2019-09-20 | 2021-03-23 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | System, method and terminal for detecting anti-explosion performance of structure |
| CN112784391A (en) * | 2019-11-07 | 2021-05-11 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Explosion safety risk assessment method and system |
| CN113554254A (en) * | 2020-04-23 | 2021-10-26 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Storage, and method, system and device for managing and controlling accident risk of petrochemical enterprise |
| CN112633553A (en) * | 2020-11-27 | 2021-04-09 | 合肥泽众城市智能科技有限公司 | Method and system for identifying and evaluating coupling hidden danger of gas pipeline-hazardous chemical enterprise |
| CN113627734A (en) * | 2021-07-16 | 2021-11-09 | 南京理工大学 | Individual risk evaluation method for explosive burning operation personnel |
| CN113627734B (en) * | 2021-07-16 | 2024-05-24 | 南京理工大学 | Individual risk evaluation method for explosive burning worker |
| CN117648877A (en) * | 2024-01-30 | 2024-03-05 | 南京财经大学 | Dangerous goods explosion result prediction method and system based on QSAR model |
| CN117648877B (en) * | 2024-01-30 | 2024-04-16 | 南京财经大学 | Dangerous goods explosion result prediction method and system based on QSAR model |
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