CN106920035A - A kind of marine oil and gas platform fire incident consequence quantitative estimation method - Google Patents
A kind of marine oil and gas platform fire incident consequence quantitative estimation method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of marine oil and gas platform fire incident consequence quantitative estimation method, identification of dangerous source, fire probability is carried out successively to calculate, set up geometrical model, sector-style of going forward side by side condition determines, reveals dividing elements, leak position determination, leakage rate calculating, leakage Time Calculation, accident simulation and consequences analysis are carried out again, quantitative simulation is carried out to marine oil and gas platform fire explosion, to provide the support in data for effective reduction accident risk.The beneficial effect of this programme can be learnt according to the narration to such scheme, use for reference theoretical research and the practical experience of domestic and international shallow sea oil and gas development risk analysis, consider Shengli Shallow Sea platform risk present situation, research is adapted to the key technology of the risk analysis of ocean platform major accident and accident simulation, propose the fire explosion quantitative simulation analysis method suitable for China's marine environment, offer safe practice is continually and steadily produced for offshore oil and gas to support, makes the offshore and gas development more safety economy in future.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to petroleum industry safety in production field, more particularly to a kind of marine oil and gas platform fire incident consequence amount
Change appraisal procedure.
Background technology
As the development of human society, global Oil Gas demand increase sharply, onshore oil gas field successively enters High water cut, low yield energy
Stage, Land petroleum resource is increasingly exhausted, and at the same time, our exploitation to Marine oil and gas resource are still very limited.
In order to ensure social development, petrol resources exploitation emphasis starts to turn to ocean in global range.
There is oil dependence on external supply since 1993 in China, and dependence on foreign countries for oil increases to 11.1% rapidly within 1996,
32.9% is expanded within 2002, more than 50%, 51.2% is reached within 2009, is even more within 2015 and is reached 60.6%；Natural gas is externally interdependent
Degree also reaches 38% in 2015 from 11.3% in 2010.It is contemplated that, the following continuation with China's economy develops, China's oil
Gas external dependence degree will further improve.Therefore, the favourable Chinese energy safety of offshore and gas development and social development demand are accelerated.
Offshore oil and gas production starts from the forties in 20th century, with the progress of exploration and development technology, is gradually pushed away to deep water field
Enter, U.S. Mexico gulf, the traditional deep water hydrocarbon area of Brazil and three, South Africa have been formed at present.China South Sea also possesses abundant
Petroleum resources, necessarily one of sticking point of China's offshore and gas development.Deep-sea oil gas exploitation is trend of the times, but due to deep-sea
Marine oil and gas environment is more severe, simultaneously because China's gas and oil in sea development technique level still has one with international most advanced level
Determine gap, therefore within following a period of time, the shallow sea oil and gas development within depth of water 500m, including marginal oil field and small oil field
It is still one of critical position of China's frscturing.
Ocean platform as offshore and gas development key facility, because compact conformation, activity space are small, density of personnel
Height, involved material has the characteristic that HTHP, inflammable and explosive, poisonous and harmful and liaison are present, and shallow sea marine environment is answered
It is miscellaneous changeable etc., it is easy to the accidents such as blowout, fire explosion to occur, often results in catastrophic effect and triggers Domino effect.Closely
External multiple generation ocean platform major accident, just has 3 offshore oil and gas fire explosions only 2015 first quarter over year,
Cause 7 people dead, 6 people are missing, 16 people are severely injured；By taking the Gulf of Mexico as an example, since 2001, the Gulf of Mexico occurred 858 altogether
Fire or explosion accident, dead during 69 people operation at sea, 1349 people are injured.
How more effectively to reduce accident risk and have become the key issue that offshore and gas development faces.Norway is earliest
The country of system application offshore oil and gas yield risk assessment, the ocean platform peace of administrative department of Statoil promulgation in 1981
The all new Offshore Units of full evaluating regulation requirement must carry out Quantitative Risk Assessment, coming years Norway in conceptual phase
New risk assessment specification and NORSOK specifications has been promulgated again to replace the rule of old risk assessment specification and unified petroleum industry
Model；After 1992, Britain is more preferable exploitation North Sea petroleum resources, it is stipulated that the design of all of offshore oil facility and existing
Structural Behavior Evaluation all should carry out methods of risk assessment, and between hereafter 10 years, the accident rate of Britain's Offshore Oil Industry is reduced
50%；In recent years, each state all constantly promulgate regulation and constantly correct strengthen risk quantification assess in offshore and gas development safety
The importance of risk-aversion, there is now the design of the state such as Britain, Canada, Australia and Norway legislation demands Offshore Units
With application amount risk assessment in operation.Compared with related developments in the world, the risk assessment of China's Offshore Engineering field
Also it is at the initial stage, application at present rests on Qualitative risk evaluation mostly, meanwhile, it is domestic also to exist similar to Britain in Piper
To the scepticism ideological trend of risk quantification assessment technology before Alpha disasters, cause the quantitative evaluation technology of China not in sea
Foreign petroleum works field obtains due development.
Recently as the lifting of China's offshore exploration exploitation scale and speed, a large amount of new technology and equipments come into operation,
Need to analyze its influence level to oil and gas development risk；Meanwhile, existing platform device is because local environment is severe and itself lacks
The reason such as sunken, (such as equipment designs unreasonable, ageing equipment and the fire of the unreasonable initiation of layout is hidden to expose a large amount of potential safety hazards
Trouble, blowout hidden danger etc.), increased the risk of offshore and gas development.However, due to China's ocean structure risk assessment work starting
It is later, and not system, the risk assessment technology of the marine structure with versatility is not yet formed, and China's marine oil and gas are opened
Fermentation faces the security situation of sternness, therefore needs the risk analysis work carried out for offshore and gas development badly.
The content of the invention
The present invention be directed to the deficiency existing for prior art, the theory of domestic and international shallow sea oil and gas development risk analysis is used for reference
Research and practical experience, consider Shengli Shallow Sea platform risk present situation, and research is adapted to ocean platform major accident risk analysis
And the key technology of accident simulation, and a kind of marine oil and gas platform fire incident consequence suitable for China's marine environment for proposing
Quantitative estimation method.
The technical scheme is that：Identification of dangerous source, fire probability are carried out successively to calculate, set up geometrical model, are gone forward side by side
Sector-style condition determines, reveals dividing elements, leak position determination, leakage rate calculating, leakage Time Calculation, then carries out accident simulation
And consequences analysis, quantitative simulation is carried out to marine oil and gas platform fire explosion, to be provided effectively to reduce accident risk
Support in data.
Specifically, the invention provides a kind of marine oil and gas platform fire incident consequence quantitative estimation method including following
Step：
Step 1：Potential danger source to marine oil and gas platform recognizes, and mainly launches in terms of source of leaks and incendiary source two,
The potential source of leaks of ocean platform includes but is not limited to pipeline, valve, all kinds of oily equipment（Such as compressor, separator, Re Chu
Reason device, oil skimmer）, all kinds of oil gas tanks（Such as soiling solution tank, oil storage tank, air accumulator）, various pumps, sleeve pipe, work string, standpipe, put
Empty set system, production tree, the potential incendiary source of ocean platform include but is not limited to equipment hot surface, engine exhaust heat, engine
Gear spark, generator exhaust heat, welding slag, welding spark, electric spark, mechanical spark, strike spark, electrostatic spark and
Thunderbolt；
Step 2：Fire frequency calculating is carried out, and determines acceptable risk lower limit, if the probability that leakage unit occurs fire is small
In the lower limit, then it is assumed that the fire risk very little of the leakage unit, without carrying out fire quantitative analysis, otherwise then carry out fire and determine
Amount analysis；
Step 3：Geometrical model is set up and mesh generation, based on the basic appearance and size of the ocean platform to be analyzed, carries out three
Tie up the foundation of profile geometrical model；
Step 4：Simulation operating mode determines：
Step 4-1：Wind regime determines that the wind regime parameter such as specific wind speed, wind direction should be according to research object their location meteorological data
It is determined that；
Step 4-2：Leakage unit is divided, and leakage unit divides the natural arrangement of Main Basiss equipment, ESD valve or with cut-out
The valve of function is divided；
Step 4-3：Leak position determines, according to the technological process and Hazard Recognition result of analyzing object, it is determined that may let out
The process facility of leakage, the specific leak position of equipment is determined using nondestructive inspection, FMEA and with reference to methods such as history casualty datas；
Step 4-4：Leak rate is calculated, according to leakage unit equipment pressure, leakage hole shape, material density etc., it may be determined that
The liquids and gases leakage initial rate in different size leakage aperture；
Step 4-5：Leak time is calculated, the leakage duration it is main by starting leakage, detect leakage, ESD start, valve pass
The times such as disconnected and emptying startup determine；
Step 5：Accident simulation is carried out to pond fire and jet bubble reactor caused by corresponding leakage unit；
Step 6：Net fire effect is analyzed, and flame thermal radiation, flame temperature and CO concentration etc. are to judge the serious journey of fire incident consequence
The main standard of degree.
The invention provides a kind of marine oil and gas platform explosion accident analogy method, comprise the following steps：
Step 1：Potential danger source to marine oil and gas platform recognizes, and mainly launches in terms of source of leaks and incendiary source two,
The potential source of leaks of ocean platform includes but is not limited to pipeline, valve, all kinds of oily equipment（Such as compressor, separator, Re Chu
Reason device, oil skimmer）, all kinds of oil gas tanks（Such as soiling solution tank, oil storage tank, air accumulator）, various pumps, sleeve pipe, work string, standpipe, put
Empty set system, production tree, the potential incendiary source of ocean platform include but is not limited to equipment hot surface, engine exhaust heat, engine
Gear spark, generator exhaust heat, welding slag, welding spark, electric spark, mechanical spark, strike spark, electrostatic spark and
Thunderbolt；
Step 2：Detonation frequency calculating is carried out, and determines acceptable risk lower limit, if the probability that leakage unit explodes is small
In the lower limit, then it is assumed that the risk of explosion very little of the leakage unit, without carrying out blast quantitative analysis, otherwise it is fixed then to carry out blast
Amount analysis；
Step 3：Geometrical model is set up and mesh generation, based on the basic appearance and size of the ocean platform to be analyzed, carries out three
Tie up the foundation of profile geometrical model；
Step 4：Correspondence cloud cluster size is obtained according to gas diffusion simulation：
Step 4-1：Wind regime determines that the wind regime parameter such as specific wind speed, wind direction should be according to research object their location meteorological data
It is determined that；
Step 4-2：Leakage unit is divided, and leakage unit divides the natural arrangement of Main Basiss equipment, ESD valve or with cut-out
The valve of function is divided；
Step 4-3：Leak position determines, according to the technological process and Hazard Recognition result of analyzing object, it is determined that may let out
The process facility of leakage, the specific leak position of equipment is determined using nondestructive inspection, FMEA and with reference to methods such as history casualty datas；
Step 4-4：Leak rate is calculated, according to leakage unit equipment pressure, leakage hole shape, material density etc., it may be determined that
The liquids and gases leakage initial rate in different size leakage aperture；
Step 4-5：Leak time is calculated, the leakage duration it is main by starting leakage, detect leakage, ESD start, valve pass
The times such as disconnected and emptying startup determine；
Step 5：Blast analogue, introduces incendiary source, and in explosion accident, the position of incendiary source and the duration of ignition directly affect accident
Severity of consequence；
Step 6：Blast consequences analysis.
The beneficial effect of this programme can learn according to the narration to such scheme, use for reference domestic and international shallow sea oil and gas development risk
The theoretical research of analysis and practical experience, consider Shengli Shallow Sea platform risk present situation, and research is adapted to the great thing of ocean platform
Therefore the key technology of risk analysis and accident simulation, propose the fire explosion quantitative simulation point suitable for China's marine environment
Analysis method, offshore oil and gas continually and steadily produce offer safe practice and support during being " 13 ", open the marine oil and gas in future
Hair more safety economy.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 platform fire quantitative simulation method analysis process；
Fig. 2 is constituted for the leakage time；
Fig. 3 is FLACS analysis process.
Specific embodiment
For the technical characterstic for illustrating this programme can be understood, below by specific embodiment, this programme is illustrated.
The present embodiment is a kind of marine oil and gas platform fire incident consequence quantitative estimation method, as shown in figure 1, including following
Step：
Step 1：Identification of dangerous source
Before platform fire quantitative analysis is carried out, first have to recognize the potential danger source of ocean platform, mainly from
Source of leaks and the aspect of incendiary source two are launched, and main method has the side such as HAZID, HAZOP, FMEA, Bow-Tie, event tree, accident tree
Method.
Ocean platform is divided into drilling platforms, production platform, accommodation platform, oil storage platform, offshore platform according to function difference
Deng having different functional module systems, mainly including well system, production system, dynamical system, electric control system, fitting-out
System, anchoring system, stocking system and outer defeated system etc..Based on history casualty data（Such as safety of America and environment executive board
(BSEE) the fire incident data announced）, the potential source of leaks of ocean platform includes but is not limited to pipeline, valve, all kinds of oil-containings
Gas equipment（Such as compressor, separator, annealer, oil skimmer）, all kinds of oil gas tanks（Such as soiling solution tank, oil storage tank, air accumulator）, it is each
Plant pump, sleeve pipe, work string, standpipe, blowdown system, production tree etc..Specific leakage equipment should be according to corresponding platform using dangerous
Source discrimination method is specifically recognized.
The potential incendiary source of ocean platform includes but is not limited to equipment hot surface, engine exhaust heat, engine gear fire
Flower, generator exhaust heat, welding slag, welding spark, electric spark, mechanical spark, strike spark, electrostatic spark and thunderbolt
Deng.Specific incendiary source should specifically be recognized according to corresponding platform using identification of dangerous source method.
Step 2：Fire frequency is calculated
Using the methods such as (1) accident tree, event tree, Bayesian analysis, the history incident database of (2) HSE, DNV etc., (3)
The calculating of the softwares such as Leak, these three methods can be calculated the probability that potential leakage unit occurs fire.
According to ALARP principles, acceptable risk lower limit is determined, if leakage unit occurs the probability of fire less than under this
Limit, then it is assumed that the fire risk very little of the leakage unit, without carrying out fire quantitative analysis, otherwise then carries out fire and quantitatively divides
Analysis.
Step 3：Geometrical model is set up and mesh generation
Based on the basic appearance and size of the ocean platform to be analyzed, three-dimensional profile is carried out using FLACS front processors CASD several
The foundation of what model.Mainly abide by the principle：
(1) with ocean platform exterior space profile as target, ignore research object internal structure, important installations and facilities are carried out
Model construction.
(2) simplify and omission influences relatively low structure and equipment to gas motion.
(3) in CFD Accident result simulations, the division for calculating grid is very important part, directly determines meter
The accuracy and accuracy of result are calculated, on the basis of mesh consistency analysis, nucleus is drawn using less grid
Point, extended area uses relatively large grid, to reduce the calculating time, improves computational efficiency.
Step 4：Simulation operating mode determines
The determination for simulating operating mode is the basis for launching fire quantitative analysis, and the determination of operating mode includes that wind regime determines, leakage unit is drawn
Divide, leak position determines, leak rate is calculated and leak time is calculated.In platform fire accident, the position of incendiary source
Smaller is influenceed on fire incident consequence, therefore is ignored：
Step 4-1：Wind regime determines
The wind regime parameters such as specific wind speed, wind direction should determine according to research object their location meteorological data.
Step 4-2：Leakage unit is divided
Natural arrangement, ESD valve door or the valve with cutting function that leakage unit divides Main Basiss equipment are divided, and are let out
Following provisions are done during leakage dividing elements：
（1）Caused by Gas-Leakage unit fire type be jet bubble reactor, liquid phase after leaking caused fire type be mainly
Spraying fire and pond fire, it is generally the case that the spraying fire that the generation leakage of pressure leakage unit is formed is in thermal radiation flux, flame size
It is similar to jet bubble reactor in shape, thus, it is supposed that the fire type that leakage unit is formed is mainly jet bubble reactor and pond fire.
（2）Same leakage unit should ensure that process operation parameter（Material composition, temperature, pressure etc.）Unanimously, it is inconsistent
Should continue to be divided into a series of leakage subelements, while the leakage unit to combustible material storage less than 100kg, it is believed that its fire
Consequence is limited, without carrying out further fire quantitative analysis.
Step 4-3：Leak position determines
Leak position has certain influence on damage sequence scale and coverage, and the technological process and danger according to analysis object are distinguished
Result is known, it is determined that the process facility that may be leaked, using nondestructive inspection, FMEA and true with reference to methods such as history casualty datas
The specific leak position of locking equipment.
Step 4-4：Leak rate is calculated
Leak rate is the principal element for influenceing damage sequence seriousness, and the research to leak rate contributes to effective control of accident
System, can for leakage after spread, risk assessment foundation is provided.Leak rate is mainly relevant with leakage aperture and leakage hole shape.
According to the standards of API RP 581, according to the of different sizes of leakage aperture, by process leakage be divided into it is small, in, it is big and broken
Four types are split, as shown in table 1.
The different leakage apertures of table 1
| Leak type | Scope (in) | Typical leak aperture (in) |
| Small hole leaking | 0~1/4 | 1/4 |
| Mesopore is leaked | 1/4~2 | 1 |
| Macropore is leaked | 2~6 | 4 |
| Rupture | >6 | The whole diameter of part, maximum 16in |
According to leakage unit equipment pressure, leakage hole shape, material density etc., according to AQT3046 standards, it may be determined that different chis
The liquids and gases leakage initial rate in very little leakage aperture, specific formula and applicable elements are shown in《AQT3046-2013 chemical enterprises
Quantitative Risk Evaluation directive/guide》.
Step 4-5：Leak time is calculated
The leakage duration it is main by starting leakage, detect leakage, ESD start, the time such as valve shut-off and emptying startup it is true
It is fixed, referring to Fig. 2.
T1：From the time that leakage occurs to be detected to the leakage.Leak type different time also difference, leak position,
Detector density etc. can also influence the parameter；
T2：From detect leak to ESD startup time；
T3：Shut-off starts the time completely closed to valve；
T4：ESD valve door complete switches off to emptying the time for starting startup.
According to the leak rate under each leakage unit small leakage, medium-sized leakage, large-scale leakage and rupture scene and leakage
Duration, exclude leak type of the leak time less than 1min.
Step 5：CFD is simulated
Accident simulation is carried out to pond fire and jet bubble reactor caused by corresponding leakage unit using the fire module in FLACS.
As shown in figure 3,3 steps of FLACS softwares point complete the numerical simulation of fire.
First with WIND borders as primary condition, according to the wind field in local wind regime zoning, stabilization wind field is formed
After introduce source of leaks, be finally introducing incendiary source, light the gas or liquid of leakage.According to conservative estimation principle, to Pool fire and
Jet bubble reactor does not consider the effect of Water spray.
Step 6：Net fire effect is analyzed
Flame thermal radiation, flame temperature and CO concentration etc. are the main standards for judging fire incident severity degree.2 fire of table
Influence of the flame heat radiation to damage sequence.
The injury criterion of the flame thermal radiation of table 2
With regard to flame temperature for the injury influence of personnel, when fire field environment temperature is higher than 180 DEG C, human body will be caused sternly
Grievous hurt；When flue gas layer drops to direct body contact's height（Take the average eye-level 1.5m of boy student）, critical value reaches
More than 115 DEG C human body burns；When temperature is higher than 88 DEG C, body temperature reached critical value in 10 minutes, in the hole；Place
People's right mind and behavior can be influenceed in 43 ~ 48 DEG C.
Simultaneously under high temperature of fire heat effect high, each container inner medium expansion superpressure of platform, installations and facilities structure fire resistance
Reduction may result in malformation or damage；Deck structural support ability declines loss of stability and bearing capacity, may
Trigger chain reaction, net fire effect expands.Fire also results in the panic behavior of personnel, can influence the control of fire or rescue.
The thermal decomposition product and combustion product that oil gas combustion process is produced safe to the human body can cause harm, and wherein CO is right
Human body threatens maximum gas, is required according to U.S. NFPA130, when CO concentration maximas reach 2 × 10-3kg/m3When, Ren Yuanhui
It is dead in seconds；When CO mean concentrations reach 4.5 × 10-4kg/m3When, personnel are about 15min at the tolerable time.
It is of the invention to be realized by or using prior art without the technical characteristic for describing, will not be repeated here, certainly,
Described above is not limitation of the present invention, and the present invention is also not limited to the example above, the ordinary skill of the art
Change, remodeling, addition or replacement that personnel are made in essential scope of the invention, should also belong to protection model of the invention
Enclose.
Claims (1)
1. a kind of marine oil and gas platform fire incident consequence quantitative estimation method, it is characterised in that comprise the following steps：
Step 1：Potential danger source to marine oil and gas platform recognizes, and mainly launches in terms of source of leaks and incendiary source two,
The potential source of leaks of ocean platform includes but is not limited to pipeline, valve, all kinds of oily equipment（Such as compressor, separator, Re Chu
Reason device, oil skimmer）, all kinds of oil gas tanks（Such as soiling solution tank, oil storage tank, air accumulator）, various pumps, sleeve pipe, work string, standpipe, put
Empty set system, production tree, the potential incendiary source of ocean platform include but is not limited to equipment hot surface, engine exhaust heat, engine
Gear spark, generator exhaust heat, welding slag, welding spark, electric spark, mechanical spark, strike spark, electrostatic spark and
Thunderbolt；
Step 2：Fire frequency calculating is carried out, and determines acceptable risk lower limit, if the probability that leakage unit occurs fire is small
In the lower limit, then it is assumed that the fire risk very little of the leakage unit, without carrying out fire quantitative analysis, otherwise then carry out fire and determine
Amount analysis；
Step 3：Geometrical model is set up and mesh generation, based on the basic appearance and size of the ocean platform to be analyzed, carries out three
Tie up the foundation of profile geometrical model；
Step 4：Simulation operating mode determines：
Step 4-1：Wind regime determines that the wind regime parameter such as specific wind speed, wind direction should be according to research object their location meteorological data
It is determined that；
Step 4-2：Leakage unit is divided, and leakage unit divides the natural arrangement of Main Basiss equipment, ESD valve or with cut-out
The valve of function is divided；
Step 4-3：Leak position determines, according to the technological process and Hazard Recognition result of analyzing object, it is determined that may let out
The process facility of leakage, the specific leak position of equipment is determined using nondestructive inspection, FMEA and with reference to methods such as history casualty datas；
Step 4-4：Leak rate is calculated, according to leakage unit equipment pressure, leakage hole shape, material density etc., it may be determined that
The liquids and gases leakage initial rate in different size leakage aperture；
Step 4-5：Leak time is calculated, the leakage duration it is main by starting leakage, detect leakage, ESD start, valve pass
The times such as disconnected and emptying startup determine；
Step 5：Accident simulation is carried out to pond fire and jet bubble reactor caused by corresponding leakage unit；
Step 6：Net fire effect is analyzed, and flame thermal radiation, flame temperature and CO concentration etc. are to judge the serious journey of fire incident consequence
The main standard of degree.
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