CN111209622A - Risk-based crude oil reservoir design method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a risk-based crude oil reservoir design method, which comprises the following steps: determining a preliminary design plan for a crude oil reservoir; determining a potential danger scene of a crude oil reservoir in the preliminary design scheme through HAZOP analysis; modeling failure probability, failure consequences and risks caused by the failure consequences of the potential dangerous scenes and carrying out quantitative calculation; comparing the quantitative calculation result with a risk acceptable criterion, if the quantitative calculation result is within the range of the acceptable criterion, designing a scheme reasonably preliminarily, and if the quantitative calculation result is not within the range of the acceptable criterion, performing the next step; optimizing the preliminary design scheme; a risk-based crude oil reservoir design is created. The invention has the beneficial effects that: in the design process of the crude oil storage tank, the failure consequences of different reservoirs and different risk levels caused by the failure consequences are fully considered, the risk of safety accidents of the crude oil reservoir is reduced, and the safety of the crude oil reservoir is ensured.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of crude oil storage, in particular to a risk-based crude oil storage design method.
Background
Because the crude oil storage is large in stock quantity and the crude oil has flammability and explosion risk, the crude oil storage often has serious safety consequences and great economic loss once an accident occurs. The original crude oil reservoir design method is designed based on standard specifications and design experience, and no difference exists in design if reservoir scales are the same in principle.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the problems, the invention aims to provide a crude oil reservoir design method based on risks, which realizes the targeted safety design of crude oil reservoirs with different risk levels on the premise of meeting standard specifications, so that the accident risk is reduced to an acceptable level, and the safety of the crude oil reservoir is ensured.
The invention provides a risk-based crude oil reservoir design method, which comprises the following steps:
step 2, determining a potential danger scene of a crude oil reservoir in a preliminary design scheme through HAZOP analysis;
step 5, optimizing the preliminary design scheme;
and 6, forming a crude oil storage design scheme based on the risk.
As a further improvement of the present invention, the failure probability of the dangerous scene in step 3 includes the failure probability of the equipment facility and the ignition probability of the accident caused by the failure of the equipment facility.
As a further improvement of the invention, the probability of failure of the equipment facility includes the frequency of leakage of the tanks in the storage, and the frequency of leakage of the equipment and pipelines in the storage.
As a further development of the invention, the firing probability of the accident includes an immediate firing probability and a delayed firing probability.
As a further improvement of the present invention, the calculation model of the tank leakage frequency in the reservoir is:
F(t)=FG×Df-total×FM
wherein F (t) is the leakage frequency of the crude oil storage tank, FGTo average leakage frequency, Df-totalAs the overall damage factor, FMThe coefficients are evaluated for the management system.
As a further improvement of the invention, the calculation model of the leakage frequency of the equipment and the pipelines in the storage is as follows:
F(d)=f(D)dm+Frupf(D)=C(1+aDn)
wherein F (D) is the leakage frequency with annual leakage pore size D, F (D) is the leakage pore size function varying with D, D is the equipment diameter in mm, D is the leakage pore diameter in mm, m is a slope parameter, F (D) is the leakage frequency with annual leakage pore size D, D is the leakage pore size in mmrupFor additional burst frequencies, C, a, n are all device type constants.
As a further improvement of the present invention, the calculation model of the immediate firing probability is:
Pimm,ign=Pai+Psd=[1-5000e-9.5(T/AIT)]+[0.0024×(145P)1/3/(MIE)2/3]
in the formula, Pimm,ignFor immediate firing probability, PaiFor self-ignition properties, PsdFor ignition energy characteristics, T is the temperature of the leaking material in units, AIT is the auto-ignition point of the leaking material in units, P is the pressure of the leaking material in units of MPa, and MIE is the minimum ignition energy of the leaking material in units of mJ.
As a further improvement of the present invention, the calculation model of the probability of late ignition is:
wherein P (t) is the probability of ignition in the time interval from 0 to t, PpresentAs a probability of the presence of a vapor cloud past the ignition source,for the ignition rate, the unit is s-1T is time in units of s.
As a further improvement of the present invention, the failure consequences of the hazardous scenario in step 3 include pool fires, jet fires and cloud explosions.
As a further refinement of the invention, the computational model of the pool fire comprises a pool diameter of the pool fire combustion, a flame height of the pool fire combustion, a pool fire combustion flame surface heat flux, and a heat flux received at the target, wherein:
the calculation model of the diameter of the liquid storage tank for the fire combustion of the tank is as follows:
wherein S is the area enclosed by the fire dam and the unit is m2D is the diameter of the liquid storage tank and the unit is m;
the calculation model of the flame height of the pool fire combustion is as follows:
wherein L is the flame height in m, D is the reservoir diameter in m, mfThe combustion rate is expressed in [ kg/(m)2·s)],ρ0Is the air density in kg/m3G is the acceleration of gravity in m/s2;
The calculation model of the surface heat flux of the pool fire combustion flame is as follows:
in the formula, q0Is the heat flux of the flame surface in kw/m2,ΔHcHeat of combustion in kJ/kg, fhIs emissivity of heat, mfThe combustion rate is expressed in [ kg/(m)2·s)];
The calculation model of the target received heat flux is:
q(r)=q0(1-0.058lnr)v
where q (r) is the target received heat flux inIs kw/m2R is the horizontal distance of the target to the center of the leak in m, and v is the view angle coefficient.
As a further improvement of the present invention, the flaming fire includes a vertical direction flaming fire and a horizontal direction flaming fire.
As a further improvement of the invention, the computational model of the vertical jet fire comprises a flame length and a thermal radiation flux received at the target, wherein:
the calculated model of flame length is:
in the formula, L1The length of the flame of the vertical flame jet is m, djIs the diameter of the nozzle in m, CTCalculating the molar coefficient of fuel in a chemical reaction, T, for fuel-airfIs the adiabatic temperature of the combustion flame, in units of K, Tjis the adiabatic temperature of the injected fluid, in units of K, alphaTCalculating for the fuel-air the moles of reactant required to produce each mole of combustion product in a chemical reaction, MaIs the molar mass of air in g/mol, MfIs the molar mass of the fuel, and the unit is g/mol;
the calculation model of the thermal radiation flux received at the target is as follows:
where q (r) is the heat flux received by the target at distance r, in kw/m2,τais the atmospheric transmission rate, η is the emissivity coefficient,is the mass flow rate of the fuel in kg/s, Δ HcHeat of combustion in kJ/kg, FpIs the view factor.
As a further improvement of the invention, the computational model of the horizontal jet fire comprises a flame length and a thermal radiation flux received at the target, wherein:
the flame length calculation model is as follows:
in the formula, L2The length of flame of horizontal flame jet is m, HcThe heat of combustion is expressed in J/kg,is the mass flow rate of the fuel, with the unit being kg/s;
the calculation model of the thermal radiation flux received at the target is as follows:
wherein q (X) is the thermal radiant flux received at a distance X in kw/m2F is emissivity, HcThe heat of combustion is expressed in J/kg,is the mass flow rate of the fuel in kg/s and τ is the atmospheric transport rate.
As a further development of the invention, the calculation model of the vapor cloud explosion comprises an overpressure value, an overpressure time and a positive impulse at fixed positions, wherein:
the calculated model of the overpressure value is: ps ═ Ps' × Pa
In the formula, Ps is an explosion overpressure value with the unit of KPa, Ps' is an explosion overpressure parameter, and Pa is environmental pressure with the unit of Pa;
in the formula, tpIs overpressure time in units of s, tp' is dimensionless time, E is combustion energy in units of J, aaThe local sound velocity is obtained, and the time is m/s;
the calculation model of the positive impulse is as follows: i.e. is=1/2×Ps×tp
In the formula isIs a positive impulse.
As a further improvement of the present invention, the risks caused by the failure consequences of step 3 include personal risks expressed in annual personal mortality and social risks; the social risk is expressed by a double logarithm model, and the death number N is used as a distribution graph corresponding to the accumulated value F of the frequency of various failure outcomes, so that an F-N curve is obtained.
As a further improvement of the invention, the specific calculation steps of the personal risk value are as follows:
step 311, selecting a failure scenario S and determining the failure frequency f thereofs;
Step 312, selecting a weather class M and a wind direction under the weather classAnd determining the probability P of the occurrence of the weather level MMAnd joint probability of simultaneous occurrence of weather level M and wind direction P
Step 313, selecting an ignition event i and determining an ignition probability P for combustible releasei;
Step 314, calculating the specific failure scene S, the weather level M and the wind directionAnd probability of death P on grid cell under firing event iPersonal risk;
Step 315, calculating the specific failure scene S, the weather level M and the wind directionAnd contribution to individual risk of grid cell under firing event i
Step 316, repeating steps 311-315 for all firing events, steps 312-315 for all weather levels and wind directions, and steps 311-315 for all S repeats, then the formula for calculating personal risk at the grid points is:
as a further improvement of the present invention, the social risk value is calculated by the following specific steps:
step 321, determining the following conditions: determining leakage scenario S and frequency of occurrence f thereofsDetermining the weather level M and the probability P of occurrence thereofMDetermining a wind direction under the weather level MAnd probability of occurrence thereofDetermination of ignition event i and probability of occurrence P for combustible leakagei;
322, selecting a grid cell j, determining the number of people N in the grid cellcell;
Step 323, calculating the specific leakage scene S, the weather level M and the wind directionAnd percent of population death P in grid cells under firing event iSocial risk;
Step 324, calculating the weather level M, wind direction in the specific leakage scene SAnd the death number of the grid cells under the condition of the ignition event i
Step 325,Repeating steps 322-324 for all grid cells to calculate for a particular leakage scene S, weather class M, wind directionAnd calculating the total number of dead people under the condition of the ignition event i
Step 326, calculate the weather level M, wind direction in the specific leakage scene SAnd the joint frequency of occurrence under ignition event i condition
Step 327, for all leakage scenes S, weather level M, wind directionAnd repeating steps 321-326 for the ignition event i, and counting the number of the death people by using the accumulated number of the death peopleAll accidents occurring at a certain frequencyF-N curves were constructed.
As a further improvement of the present invention, the step 5 of optimizing the preliminary design scheme includes: optimizing a tank capacity design scheme of a storage tank in a crude oil reservoir, optimizing a general diagram layout design scheme, optimizing a crude oil reservoir automatic control design scheme, optimizing a mechanical design scheme of the storage tank in the crude oil reservoir and optimizing an anti-explosion design scheme of a building.
As a further improvement of the invention, the specific steps of the overall diagram layout design scheme optimization are as follows:
step 511, performing risk evaluation on the preliminary design scheme;
step 512, judging whether each building monomer meets the risk acceptance criterion or not according to the risk evaluation result;
step 513, analyzing the contribution sources of the main risks of the building units which do not meet the risk acceptance criteria;
step 514, adjusting the overall diagram layout in the preliminary design scheme, and keeping the position of the building unit away from the risk contribution source;
step 515, after the adjustment of each building scheme is completed, forming a total graph layout optimization scheme based on the consequences;
and 516, repeating the steps 511-515 until the risk criterion requirement is met.
As a further improvement of the invention, the crude oil reservoir automatic control design scheme optimization comprises the following steps:
analyzing the process flow of the crude oil storage area, and determining a valve for adding an actuating mechanism;
adding ESD interlocking pump-stopping logic;
and increasing the logic of interlocking pump stop of the high liquid level of the storage tank in the crude oil storage.
As a further improvement of the invention, the concrete steps of the optimization of the anti-knock design scheme of the building are as follows:
521, performing risk evaluation on the preliminary design scheme;
step 522, calculating an explosion overpressure value of the position of the building;
523, calculating the overpressure resistant capacity value of the building;
step 524, comparing the overpressure resistant capacity value of the building with the explosion overpressure value of the position where the building is located: if the overpressure resistance value of the building is lower than the explosion overpressure value, the building is redesigned according to the explosion overpressure value; if the overpressure resistance value of the building is higher than the explosion overpressure value, the preliminary design scheme meets the requirement of explosion resistance.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: in the design process of the crude oil storage tank, the failure consequences of different reservoirs and different risk levels caused by the failure consequences are fully considered, the risk of safety accidents of the crude oil reservoir is reduced, and the safety of the crude oil reservoir is ensured.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a risk based crude oil reservoir design method according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a tree of crude oil reservoir incidents according to an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 3 is a graph of an intensity query for an explosion source according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a diagram of an embodiment of the present invention illustrating an alternative explosion overpressure parameter Ps';
FIG. 5 is a graph illustrating a relationship between a dimensionless distance and a dimensionless time tp' for different detonation intensities according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 6 is a flowchart illustrating personal risk calculation at a mesh point according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 7 is a flow chart of social risk calculation according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 8 is a schematic diagram of a general layout design process according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 9 is a schematic flow chart of the building antiknock design according to the embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to specific embodiments and with reference to the attached drawings.
As shown in fig. 1-9, an embodiment of the present invention is a method for risk-based crude oil reservoir design, the method comprising:
And 2, determining a potential danger scene of the crude oil reservoir in the preliminary design scheme through HAZOP analysis. Based on a general diagram layout, a process flow, an automatic control scheme and the like in a preliminary design scheme, a danger and operability analysis technology (HAZOP) is adopted, the blocks of each pid diagram are divided according to functions in the process flow, analysis is carried out on each block, a potential risk source of a crude oil storage is subjected to danger identification, danger scenes including leakage of a storage tank, leakage of a pipeline, leakage caused by equipment damage and the like are determined, and preparation is made for modeling of failure scenes in quantitative analysis.
and 4, comparing the quantitative calculation result with a risk acceptable criterion, if the quantitative calculation result is within the range of the acceptable criterion, designing a reasonable preliminary scheme, and if the quantitative calculation result is not within the range of the acceptable criterion, performing the step 5. The quantitative calculation result in the application is the personal risk and social risk value caused by the failure consequence of the dangerous scene, and the personal risk and the social risk value are respectively compared with the specified values of the personal risk and the social risk born by the surrounding protection targets of the dangerous chemical production device and the storage facility in the international risk standard for dangerous chemical production devices and storage facilities (GB 36894-2018).
Step 5, optimizing the preliminary design scheme;
and 6, forming a crude oil storage design scheme based on the risk.
Further, the failure probability of the dangerous scene in step 3 includes the failure probability of the equipment facility and the ignition probability of the accident caused by the failure of the equipment facility.
Further, the probability of failure of the equipment facility includes the frequency of leakage of the storage tanks in the reservoir, and the frequency of leakage of the equipment and pipelines in the reservoir.
Further, the probability of ignition of the incident includes an immediate ignition probability and a delayed ignition probability.
The ignition model is used for calculating the occurrence probability of fire and explosion consequences. The probability of ignition is constantly changing throughout the duration of combustible material leakage, cloud diffusion, due to the number of ignition sources covered and the duration of the time extension. The firing probabilities can generally be divided into two categories, immediate firing probability and retarded firing probability. Many international organizations release ignition probability data sources and ignition probability calculation models, and national standards also partially adopt the models, and the calculation models are selected according to standard regulations.
Further, the failure probability is usually determined by considering a certain correction factor based on the average failure frequency. The average failure frequency generally adopts the leakage frequency value of a historical database, such as a hydrocarbon leakage database (HCRD) published by the UK health and safety administration (UK HSE), an international association of Oil and Gas Producers (OGP) database, a national standard "hazardous chemical production device and storage facility external safety protection distance determination method" data appendix C "typical leakage frequency value of the same kind of equipment (facility) in the leakage scene", and the like. Therefore, after the average leakage frequency of the storage tank in the crude oil reservoir is corrected, the calculation model of the leakage frequency of the storage tank is obtained as follows:
F(t)=FG×Df-total×FM
wherein F (t) is the leakage frequency of the crude oil storage tank, FGTo average leakage frequency, Df-totalAs the overall damage factor, FMThe coefficients are evaluated for the management system. The evaluation coefficient of the management system is determined by a scoring method, a specific scoring principle exists in GB/t 30578, and specific scoring contents and scores are shown in Table 1:
table 1 management system evaluation coefficient scoring table
Item of grading | Number of questions | Total score value | Actual score |
Safety |
7 | 80 | |
|
9 | 80 | |
|
7 | 95 | |
|
4 | 40 | |
Change management | 6 | 70 | |
|
7 | 120 | |
Safety work | 5 | 80 | |
|
10 | 60 | |
Inspection and |
7 | 95 | |
Safety check before |
7 | 90 | |
Emergency measure | 6 | 75 | |
Accident investigation | 2 | 40 | |
Subcontracting management | 5 | 40 | |
Safety production |
4 | 35 | |
Total of | 86 | 1000 |
Converting the management system score from the table above into a management system evaluation factor FM=101-X/500In the formula, X represents the total of the actual scores.
Further, in the present application, the leakage frequency function is used to analyze the leakage frequency variation of the device and the pipeline, which is different along with the aperture variation, so that the calculation model of the leakage frequency of the device and the pipeline in the reservoir is obtained as follows:
F(d)=f(D)dm+Frupf(D)=C(1+aDn)
wherein F (D) is the leakage frequency with annual leakage pore size D, F (D) is the leakage pore size function varying with D, D is the equipment diameter in mm, D is the leakage pore diameter in mm, m is a slope parameter, F (D) is the leakage frequency with annual leakage pore size D, D is the leakage pore size in mmrupFor additional burst frequencies, C, a, n are all device type constants.
In practical application, in order to simplify analysis and facilitate calculation, in the calculation process, the leakage of all the equipment and pipelines in the division unit is usually converted to one point, so that the simplified calculation formula of the total leakage frequency of the equipment and the pipelines is as followsF is the frequency of the leakage event, niIs the number of devices i, fiIs the leakage frequency of device i.
Further, the immediate firing probability is determined by the activity of the leaking substance and the leak rate. According to the provisions of AQ/T3046-2019, the guide for quantitative risk assessment of chemical enterprises, the probability of immediate ignition is determined by the activity of the leaking substance, including the potential pyrophoricity and ignition energy characteristics of the substance itself, and the leakage rate. The calculation model for the immediate firing probability in this application is therefore:
Pimm,ign=Pai+Psd=[1-5000e-9.5(T/AIT)]+[0.0024×(145P)1/3/(MIE)2/3]
in the formula, Pimm,ignFor immediate firing probability, maximum value does not exceed 1, PaiFor self-ignition properties, PsdFor ignition energy characteristics, T is the temperature of the leaking material in units, AIT is the auto-ignition point of the leaking material in units, P is the pressure of the leaking material in units of MPa, and MIE is the minimum ignition energy of the leaking material in units of mJ. When T/AIT is less than 0.9, P isai0; when T/AIT > 1.2, then Pai=1。
The probability of ignition immediately after a combustible material leak from the fixture is shown in table 2:
TABLE 2 probability of ignition immediately after combustible material leakage from the fixture
Further, the calculation model of the delayed ignition probability is as follows:
wherein P (t) is the probability of ignition in the time interval from 0 to t, PpresentAs a probability of the presence of a vapor cloud past the ignition source,for the ignition rate, the unit is s-1T is time in units of s.
Further, the event tree analysis method is used to analyze the possibility of various accidents caused by equipment leakage. The large oil depot is mainly used for storing crude oil or finished oil such as gasoline, diesel oil and the like, and possible consequences after leakage are shown in figure 2. Since there is no risk that the leak will be ignited with a delay after the leak event occurs and that the leak will not be ignited and eventually safely spread, the failure consequences considered in step 3 of the present application include only pool fires, jet fires and cloud explosions.
Further, the computational model of the pool fire comprises a pool diameter of the pool fire combustion, a flame height of the pool fire combustion, a pool fire combustion flame surface heat flux, and a heat flux received at the target, wherein:
the scene of failure that leads to pond fire in this application leaks for the storage tank in the storehouse, and consequently the computational model of the liquid storage pond diameter of pond fire burning is:
wherein S is the area enclosed by the fire dam and the unit is m2D is the diameter of the liquid storage tank and the unit is m;
the pool fire height is calculated by adopting a Thomas model, and the calculation model of the flame height of the pool fire combustion is as follows:
wherein L is the flame height in m, D is the reservoir diameter in m, mfThe combustion rate is expressed in [ kg/(m)2·s)],ρ0Is the air density in kg/m3G is the acceleration of gravity in m/s2;
The Mudan model is adopted for the heat flux on the surface of the flame, and the calculation model of the heat flux on the surface of the pool fire combustion flame is as follows assuming that energy is uniformly radiated from the side surface and the top of the cylindrical flame to the periphery:
in the formula, q0Is the heat flux of the flame surface in kw/m2,ΔHcHeat of combustion in kJ/kg, fhIs emissivity of heat, mfThe combustion rate is expressed in [ kg/(m)2·s)];
The calculation model of the target received heat flux is:
q(r)=q0(1-0.058lnr)v
wherein q (r) is the target received heat flux in kw/m2R is the horizontal distance of the target to the center of the leak in m, and v is the view angle coefficient.
Further, since the injection direction of the injection fire is different, when the injection fire is modeled, the injection fire is divided into a vertical direction injection fire and a horizontal direction injection fire. Pressurized combustibles form jets when they leak and, if ignited at a leak crack, form a jet fire. The flame is assumed to be conical and represented by a point source model from the leak to 4/5 of the flame length.
Further, the computational model of the vertical direction jet fire includes a flame length and a thermal radiation flux received at the target, wherein:
the calculated model of flame length is:
in the formula, L1The length of the flame of the vertical flame jet is m, djIs the diameter of the nozzle in m, CTCalculating the molar coefficient of fuel in a chemical reaction, T, for fuel-airfIs the adiabatic temperature of the combustion flame, in units of K, Tjis the adiabatic temperature of the injected fluid, in units of K, alphaTCalculating for the fuel-air the moles of reactant required to produce each mole of combustion product in a chemical reaction, MaIs the molar mass of air in g/mol, MfIs the molar mass of the fuel in g/mol, C for most fuelsTmuch less than 1, αTApproximately equal to 1, TfAnd TjIs between 7 and 9.
The calculation model of the thermal radiation flux received at the target is as follows:
in the formula, q (r)Heat flux received for a target at distance r, in kw/m2,τais the atmospheric transmission rate, η is the emissivity coefficient,is the mass flow rate of the fuel in kg/s, Δ HcHeat of combustion in kJ/kg, FpIs the view factor.
Further, the computational model of the horizontal jet fire includes a flame length and a thermal radiation flux received at the target, wherein:
the flame length calculation model is as follows:
in the formula, L2The length of flame of horizontal flame jet is m, HcThe heat of combustion is expressed in J/kg,is the mass flow rate of the fuel, with the unit being kg/s;
the calculation model of the thermal radiation flux received at the target is as follows:
wherein q (X) is the thermal radiant flux received at a distance X in kw/m2F is emissivity, HcThe heat of combustion is expressed in J/kg,is the mass flow rate of the fuel in kg/s and τ is the atmospheric transport rate.
Further, for steam cloud explosion caused by oil depot leakage, a TNO (trinitrotoluene) multifunctional model which is widely applied internationally is adopted for calculation. The model is verified and corrected by a large amount of experimental results and is relatively close to the fact. The computational model of the vapor cloud explosion includes an overpressure value, an overpressure time, and a positive impulse at a fixed location. Wherein:
the calculated model of the overpressure value is: ps ═ Ps' × Pa
In the formula, Ps is an explosion overpressure value in KPa, Ps' is an explosion overpressure parameter, and Pa is an ambient pressure in Pa.
The calculation of the overpressure value mainly comprises three steps of determination of explosion source intensity, dimensionless distance calculation and selection of explosion overpressure parameters.
The size of the explosion source intensity is related to the limited degree of the space where the steam cloud is located, the ignition source intensity and the like, the explosion source intensity is a variable parameter, the value is any integer between 1 and 10, 1 represents the weakest explosion source intensity, 10 represents the strongest explosion source intensity, and for the explosion source intensity value, the proper explosion source intensity can be selected according to the graph 3; the dimensionless distance calculation formula is r' ═ r/(E/Pa)1/3R is the actual distance from the center of the explosion in m, E is the combustion energy in J, Pa is the ambient pressure in Pa; and reading out a value Ps 'of a vertical coordinate in an explosion overpressure parameter selection graph (figure 4) according to the determined explosion source intensity and the calculated r', namely the explosion overpressure parameter.
in the formula, tpIs overpressure time in units of s, tp' is dimensionless time, E is combustion energy in units of J, aaThe local sound velocity is obtained, and the time is m/s; and reading a value tp 'of a vertical coordinate from a relation curve (figure 5) of dimensionless distance and dimensionless time under different explosive source strengths according to the determined explosive source strength and the calculated r'.
The calculation model of the positive impulse is as follows: i.e. is=1/2×Ps×tp
In the formula isIs a positive impulse.
Further, the risks caused by the failure result in step 3 include personal risks and social risks, and the personal risks represent the frequency of occurrence of certain dangers that an individual continuously encounters in a certain place, and are generally expressed in the annual personal mortality rate; social risk characterizes the number of deaths that can be affected by a catastrophic event and the frequency with which corresponding accidents can occur. The social risk is represented by a double logarithm model, and the death number N is used as a distribution graph corresponding to the accumulated value F of the frequency of various failure outcomes, so as to obtain an F-N curve. The risk value (R) for a device or pipeline is the frequency of failure (F) x consequence of failure (C).
Further, the specific calculation steps of the personal risk value are as follows:
step 311, selecting a failure scenario S and determining the failure frequency f thereofs. The failure scenario can be selected from dangerous scenarios analyzed by the HAZOP, such as a tank leakage in a crude oil reservoir or a device and pipeline leakage in the crude oil reservoir, and the failure frequency thereof corresponds to the leakage frequency of the tank or the leakage frequency of the device and pipeline, respectively.
Step 312, selecting a weather class M and a wind direction under the weather classAnd determining the probability P of the occurrence of the weather level MMAnd joint probability of simultaneous occurrence of weather level M and wind direction P
Step 313, selecting an ignition event i and determining an ignition probability P for combustible releasei. The firing event here can be selected as either an immediate firing or a retarded firing, with the firing probability corresponding to the immediate firing probability or the retarded firing probability, respectively.
Step 314, calculating the specific failure scene S, the weather level M and the wind directionAnd probability of death P on grid cell under firing event iPersonal risk;
Step 315, calculating the specific failure scene S, the weather level M and the wind directionAnd contribution to individual risk of grid cell under firing event i
Step 316, repeating steps 311-315 for all firing events, steps 312-315 for all weather levels and wind directions, and steps 311-315 for all S repeats, then the formula for calculating personal risk at the grid points is:
further, the social risk value is calculated by the following specific steps:
step 321, determining the following conditions: determining leakage scenario S and frequency of occurrence f thereofsDetermining the weather level M and the probability P of occurrence thereofMDetermining a wind direction under the weather level MAnd probability of occurrence thereofDetermination of ignition event i and probability of occurrence P for combustible leakagei;
322, selecting a grid cell j, determining the number of people N in the grid cellcell;
Step 323, calculating the specific leakage scene S, the weather level M and the wind directionAnd percent of population death P in grid cells under firing event iSocial risk;
Step 324, calculating the weather level M, wind direction in the specific leakage scene SAnd the death number of the grid cells under the condition of the ignition event i
Step 325, repeating steps 322-324 for all grid cells to calculate specific leakage scene S, weather grade M, wind directionAnd calculating the total number of dead people under the condition of the ignition event i
Step 326, calculate the weather level M, wind direction in the specific leakage scene SAnd the joint frequency of occurrence under ignition event i condition
Step 327, for all leakage scenes S, weather level M, wind directionAnd repeating steps 321-326 for the ignition event i, and counting the number of the death people by using the accumulated number of the death peopleAll accidents occurring at a certain frequencyF-N curves were constructed.
According to the definition of the social risk curve, the social risk curve is defined as: the F-N curve is a graph for clearly showing the relationship between the cumulative accident frequency (F) and the number of deaths (N). Since the frequency and number of deaths spans several orders of magnitude, a log plot is often used. Social risk describes the number of deaths that can be affected by a catastrophic event and the frequency with which the corresponding accident can occur. The abscissa value is the number of dead people, and the ordinate value is the frequency of occurrence of accidents of the number of dead people. Therefore, it is necessary to calculate the probability of an accident occurring in a certain number of dead people, including the probability of a larger number of dead people.
Performing the results of calculation of combustible gas diffusion caused by leakage of potential leakage points of the crude oil reservoir, calculation of thermal radiation intensity after accidental ignition of combustible gas, calculation of explosion overpressure of the combustible gas and the like by using the model;
risk values and risk distribution results for the crude oil reservoir; the method comprises the following steps:
results 1: key process flow nodes in risk sets and lists of process equipment facilities (individual risk contribution rates).
Results 2: the extent of diffusion and the concentration distribution of the combustible gas.
Results 3: the heat radiation intensity distribution of different positions after the fire disaster can be obtained through the calculation of the heat radiation intensity.
Results 4: the explosion overpressure value of each point at different time after explosion can be obtained from the calculation result of the explosion overpressure of the combustible gas, and the anti-explosion design of the building can be carried out according to the explosion overpressure value.
Further, the step 5 of optimizing the preliminary design solution includes: optimizing a tank capacity design scheme of a storage tank in a crude oil reservoir, optimizing a general diagram layout design scheme, optimizing a crude oil reservoir automatic control design scheme, optimizing a mechanical design scheme of the storage tank in the crude oil reservoir and optimizing a building anti-explosion design scheme.
The optimization of the design scheme of the storage tank capacity in the crude oil reservoir mainly comprises the steps of forming various tank capacity configuration schemes by adjusting the capacity of a single tank, carrying out quantitative risk evaluation on the tank capacity configuration schemes, and adopting an optimal scheme by combining safety and economy. The optimization of the mechanical design scheme of the storage tank in the crude oil reservoir is mainly to develop the design from the structural angle of the storage tank, and reduce the risk of the storage tank from the intrinsic safety.
Furthermore, by combining the conditions of construction land, multi-scheme design is carried out on the overall diagram layout based on the result of quantitative risk evaluation, quantitative risk evaluation is carried out on each scheme, and a scheme with lower risk is adopted.
For a crude oil storage, in order to meet the production requirement, a plurality of building monomers are arranged, and part of monomer personnel are centralized, such as monomers of a comprehensive building, a dispatching building and the like. Conventional design solutions are based on the specification of the spacing of the building units from other areas, and lack quantitative analysis for different crude oil reservoirs.
The crude oil reservoir general diagram layout optimization technology based on the consequences is mainly characterized in that on the basis of risk evaluation results, a general diagram scheme is adjusted according to the contribution of other areas to the risk values of building monomers with risk values not meeting the requirements of acceptance criteria. The specific steps of the overall diagram layout design scheme optimization are as follows:
and 511, performing risk evaluation on the preliminary design scheme, wherein the risk evaluation in the embodiment is mainly personal risk evaluation in the crude oil reservoir factory.
Step 512, judging whether each building monomer meets the risk acceptance criterion or not according to the risk evaluation result;
step 513, analyzing the contribution sources of the main risks of the building units which do not meet the risk acceptance criteria;
step 514, adjusting the overall diagram layout in the preliminary design scheme, and keeping the position of the building unit away from the risk contribution source;
step 515, after the adjustment of each building scheme is completed, forming a total graph layout optimization scheme based on the consequences;
and 516, repeating the steps 511-515 until the risk criterion requirement is met.
Further, the crude oil reservoir automatic control design scheme optimization comprises the following steps:
analyzing the process flow of the crude oil storage area, and determining to increase the valves of the actuating mechanism, thereby shortening the closing time of the valves and reducing the oil leakage caused by closing the valves;
increasing ESD interlock pump deactivation logic to reduce line pressure in the crude reservoir, thereby reducing line oil leakage and line leak rate;
and the high-high interlocking pump stopping logic of the liquid level of the storage tank in the crude oil storage is increased, and the tank overflow risk of the crude oil storage tank is reduced.
Furthermore, once the crude oil leakage accident happens to the crude oil reservoir, the combustible gas diffuses to the closed or blocked space and then explodes when meeting an ignition source point, so that the building is impacted by the explosion shock wave, and the damage or collapse is caused, and the casualties and the property loss are caused. Especially for single bodies such as control rooms and equipment rooms, once a building is damaged, the whole control system can be completely failed, and the emergency handling capability of accidents is completely lost. In conclusion, it is necessary to develop an explosion-proof design for building units in a factory.
At present, oil and gas stations have no relevant specifications to regulate the anti-explosion overpressure value adopted by the design of building units in the stations. At present, only petrochemical industry standard GB50779-2012 anti-explosion design standard of petrochemical engineering control room puts forward an overpressure resistant value requirement on the design of the control room: taking the peak value of the shock wave, and the incident overpressure of 21kPa, and the positive pressure action time of 100 ms; or the peak incidence overpressure of the shock wave is 69kPa, and the positive pressure action time is 20 ms. The applicability of this specification to crude oil reservoirs remains questionable.
And adopting an anti-explosion design for the building according to the overpressure value of the position of the building, which is given by the risk analysis result, so as to ensure the safety of the building under explosion overpressure.
The specific steps of the optimization of the anti-knock design scheme of the building are as follows:
step 521, calculating an explosion overpressure value of the position where the building is located;
and 522, calculating the overpressure resistance value of the building, wherein the value is calculated by adopting professional structure analysis software according to the structural design scheme of the building.
Step 523, compare the overpressure resistant capacity value of the building with the explosion overpressure value of the location where it is: if the overpressure resistance value of the building is lower than the explosion overpressure value, the building is redesigned according to the explosion overpressure value; if the overpressure resistance value of the building is higher than the explosion overpressure value, the primary design scheme meets the requirement of explosion resistance.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention, and various modifications and changes may be made by those skilled in the art. Any modification, equivalent replacement, or improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (21)
1. A risk-based crude oil reservoir design method, comprising:
step 1, determining a preliminary design scheme of a crude oil reservoir;
step 2, determining a potential danger scene of a crude oil reservoir in a preliminary design scheme through HAZOP analysis;
step 3, modeling failure probability, failure consequences and risks caused by the failure consequences of the potential dangerous scenes and carrying out quantitative calculation;
step 4, comparing the quantitative calculation result with a risk acceptable criterion, if the quantitative calculation result is within the range of the acceptable criterion, designing a reasonable preliminary scheme, and if the quantitative calculation result is not within the range of the acceptable criterion, performing step 5;
step 5, optimizing the preliminary design scheme;
and 6, forming a crude oil storage design scheme based on the risk.
2. The risk-based crude oil reservoir design method of claim 1, wherein the failure probability of the hazardous scenario in step 3 comprises the failure probability of equipment facilities and the firing probability resulting in an accident after the equipment facilities fail.
3. The risk based crude oil reservoir design method of claim 2, wherein the probability of failure of the equipment facilities comprises the frequency of leakage of storage tanks in the reservoir and the frequency of leakage of equipment and pipelines in the reservoir.
4. The risk based crude oil reservoir design method of claim 2, wherein the firing probabilities of the accident include an immediate firing probability and a delayed firing probability.
5. The risk based crude oil reservoir design method of claim 3, wherein the calculation model of tank leak frequency in the reservoir is:
F(t)=FG×Df-total×FM
wherein F (t) is the leakage frequency of the crude oil storage tank, FGTo average leakage frequency, Df-totalAs the overall damage factor, FMThe coefficients are evaluated for the management system.
6. The risk based crude oil reservoir design method of claim 3, wherein the calculation model of equipment and pipeline leakage frequency in the reservoir is:
F(d)=f(D)dm+Frupf(D)=C(1+aDn)
wherein F (D) is the leakage frequency with a leakage aperture size D per year, F (D) is the leakage aperture function varying with D, D is the equipment diameter in mm, D is the leakage aperture diameter in mm, m is a slope parameter, FrupFor additional burst frequencies, C, a, n are all device type constants.
7. The risk based crude oil reservoir design method of claim 4, wherein the calculated model of the immediate firing probability is:
Pimm,ign=Pai+Psd=[1-5000e-9.5(T/AIT)]+[0.0024×(145P)1/3/(MIE)2/3]
in the formula, Pimm,ignFor immediate firing probability, PaiFor self-ignition properties, PsdFor ignition energy characteristics, T is the temperature of the leaking material in units, AIT is the auto-ignition point of the leaking material in units, P is the pressure of the leaking material in units of MPa, and MIE is the minimum ignition energy of the leaking material in units of mJ.
8. The risk based crude oil reservoir design method of claim 4, wherein the computational model of the probability of late ignition is:
9. The risk based crude oil reservoir design method of claim 1, wherein the failure consequences of the hazardous scenario in step 3 include pool fire, jet fire, and vapor cloud explosion.
10. The risk based crude oil reservoir design method of claim 9, wherein the computational model of pool fire comprises pool fire burned pool diameter, pool fire burned flame height, pool fire burned flame surface heat flux, and heat flux received at a target, wherein:
the calculation model of the diameter of the liquid storage tank for the fire combustion of the tank is as follows:
wherein S is the area enclosed by the fire dam and the unit is m2D is the diameter of the liquid storage tank and the unit is m;
the calculation model of the flame height of the pool fire combustion is as follows:
wherein L is the flame height in m, D is the reservoir diameter in m, mfThe combustion rate is expressed in [ kg/(m)2·s)],ρ0Is the air density in kg/m3G is the acceleration of gravity in units ofm/s2;
The calculation model of the surface heat flux of the pool fire combustion flame is as follows:
in the formula, q0Is the heat flux of the flame surface in kw/m2,ΔHcHeat of combustion in kJ/kg, fhIs emissivity of heat, mfThe combustion rate is expressed in [ kg/(m)2·s)];
The calculation model of the target received heat flux is:
q(r)=q0(1-0.058ln r)v
wherein q (r) is the target received heat flux in kw/m2R is the horizontal distance of the target to the center of the leak in m, and v is the view angle coefficient.
11. The risk based crude oil reservoir design method of claim 9, wherein the jet fire comprises a vertical jet fire and a horizontal jet fire.
12. The risk based crude oil reservoir design method of claim 11, wherein the computational model of the vertical jet fire comprises a flame length and a thermal radiation flux received at a target, wherein:
the calculated model of flame length is:
in the formula, L1The length of the flame of the vertical flame jet is m, djIs the diameter of the nozzle in m, CTCalculating the molar coefficient of fuel in a chemical reaction, T, for fuel-airfIs the adiabatic temperature of the combustion flame, in units of K, Tjis the adiabatic temperature of the injected fluid, in units of K, alphaTComputational chemical reaction for fuel-airIn moles of reactant required to produce each mole of combustion product, MaIs the molar mass of air in g/mol, MfIs the molar mass of the fuel, and the unit is g/mol;
the calculation model of the thermal radiation flux received at the target is as follows:
13. The risk based crude oil reservoir design method of claim 11, wherein the computational model of the horizontal jet fire comprises a flame length and a thermal radiation flux received at a target, wherein:
the flame length calculation model is as follows:
in the formula, L2The length of flame of horizontal flame jet is m, HcThe heat of combustion is expressed in J/kg,is the mass flow rate of the fuel, with the unit being kg/s;
the calculation model of the thermal radiation flux received at the target is as follows:
14. The risk based crude oil reservoir design method of claim 9, wherein the computational model of steam cloud explosion comprises overpressure values, overpressure times and positive impulses at fixed locations, wherein:
the calculated model of the overpressure value is: ps ═ Ps' × Pa
In the formula, Ps is an explosion overpressure value with the unit of KPa, Ps' is an explosion overpressure parameter, Pa is an environment pressure with the unit of Pa;
in the formula, tpIs overpressure time in units of s, tp' is dimensionless time, E is combustion energy in units of J, aaThe local sound velocity is obtained, and the time is m/s;
the calculation model of the positive impulse is as follows: i.e. is=1/2×Ps×tp
In the formula isIs a positive impulse.
15. The risk based crude oil reservoir design method of claim 1, wherein the risks resulting from the failure consequences of step 3 include personal risks expressed in annual individual mortality and social risks; the social risk is expressed by a double logarithm model, and the death number N is used as a distribution graph corresponding to the accumulated value F of the frequency of various failure outcomes, so that an F-N curve is obtained.
16. The risk based crude oil reservoir design method of claim 15, wherein the individual risk value is calculated by the specific steps of:
step 311, selecting a failure scenario S and determining the failure frequency f thereofs;
Step 312, selecting a weather class M and a wind direction under the weather classAnd determining the probability P of the occurrence of the weather level MMAnd joint probability of simultaneous occurrence of weather level M and wind direction P
Step 313, selecting an ignition event i and determining an ignition probability P for combustible releasei;
Step 314, calculating the specific failure scene S, the weather level M and the wind directionAnd probability of death P on grid cell under firing event iPersonal risk;
Step 315, calculating the specific failure scene S, the weather level M and the wind directionAnd contribution to individual risk of grid cell under firing event i
17. the risk-based crude oil reservoir design method of claim 15, wherein the social risk value is calculated by the specific steps of:
step 321, determining the following conditions: determining leakage scenario S and frequency of occurrence f thereofsDetermining the weather level M and the probability P of occurrence thereofMDetermining a wind direction under the weather level MAnd probability of occurrence thereofDetermination of ignition event i and probability of occurrence P for combustible leakagei;
322, selecting a grid cell j, determining the number of people N in the grid cellcell;
Step 323, calculating the specific leakage scene S, the weather level M and the wind directionAnd percent of population death P in grid cells under firing event iSocial risk;
Step 324, calculating the weather level M, wind direction in the specific leakage scene SAnd the number of dead grid cells under ignition event i
Step 325, repeating steps 322-324 for all grid cells to calculate for specific leakage scene S, weather level M, wind directionAnd calculating the total number of dead people under the condition of the ignition event i
Step 326, calculate the weather level M, wind direction in the specific leakage scene SAnd the frequency of joint occurrence under ignition event i conditions
18. The risk based crude oil reservoir design method of claim 1, wherein the step 5 optimizing the preliminary design solution comprises: optimizing a tank capacity design scheme of a storage tank in a crude oil reservoir, optimizing a general diagram layout design scheme, optimizing a crude oil reservoir automatic control design scheme, optimizing a mechanical design scheme of the storage tank in the crude oil reservoir and optimizing a building anti-explosion design scheme.
19. The risk based crude oil reservoir design method of claim 18, wherein the specific steps of the overall layout design solution optimization are:
step 511, performing risk evaluation on the preliminary design scheme;
step 512, judging whether each building monomer meets the risk acceptance criterion according to the risk evaluation result;
step 513, analyzing the contribution sources of the main risks of the building units which do not meet the risk acceptance criteria;
step 514, adjusting the overall layout in the preliminary design scheme, and keeping the position of the building unit away from the risk contribution source;
step 515, after the adjustment of each building scheme is completed, forming a total graph layout optimization scheme based on the consequences;
and 516, repeating the steps 511-515 until the risk criterion requirement is met.
20. The risk based crude oil reservoir design method of claim 18, wherein crude oil reservoir autonomous design scenario optimization comprises:
analyzing the process flow of the crude oil storage area, and determining a valve for adding an actuating mechanism;
adding ESD interlocking pump-stopping logic;
and increasing the logic of interlocking pump stop of the high liquid level of the storage tank in the crude oil storage.
21. The risk based crude oil reservoir design method of claim 18, wherein the concrete steps of building antiknock design solution optimization are:
521, performing risk evaluation on the preliminary design scheme;
step 522, calculating an explosion overpressure value of the position of the building;
523, calculating the overpressure resistant capacity value of the building;
step 524, comparing the overpressure resistant capacity value of the building with the explosion overpressure value of the position where the building is located: if the overpressure resistance value of the building is lower than the explosion overpressure value, the building is redesigned according to the explosion overpressure value; if the overpressure resistance value of the building is higher than the explosion overpressure value, the primary design scheme meets the requirement of explosion resistance.
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