CN104809338A - Satellite in orbit space-environment-influence early warning method based on correlation relationship - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention provides a satellite in orbit space-environment-influence early warning method based on correlation relationship. The method comprises the following steps that the reliability and relevancy time domain correlation relationship Xo(T) with the reliability and the relevancy exceeding the preset threshold is obtained; a quantitative index G(t) of a satellite house-keeping center computer SRAM (static random access memory) device being influenced by a space radiation environment at the moment t is obtained; a plurality of support degree values and a plurality of reliability values are obtained according to the correlation relationship of the G(t) and the A(t), the correlation relationship with the maximum support degree value is selected from the plurality of support degree values, if the support degree value is greater than 0.6, the warning information is 'YES', and the reliability value corresponding to the support degree value is the early warning value Y(t); if the support degree value is smaller than or equal to 0.6, the warning information is 'No'. The method has the advantages that the analysis can be realized through the single-particle effect and the satellite in orbit abnormality correlation relationship, and the satellite in orbit abnormality can be subjected to early warning according to the real-time data of satellite-borne high-energy particle flux detection equipment, and the reliability, the pertinency and the accuracy are high.

Description

A kind of method for early warning affected by space environment based on the satellite in orbit of incidence relation

Technical field

The invention belongs to spacecraft in-orbit management technical field, particularly relate to a kind of method for early warning affected by space environment based on the satellite in orbit of incidence relation.

Background technology

Domestic and international statistics shows, the space radiation environment that the radiation belt of the earth (hereinafter referred to as radiation belt) causes is the one of the main reasons causing Spacecraft malfunction exception.In more than 5000 failure logging during the 1966-1994 that U.S. NGDC (National geophysics data center) collects, about half is diagnosed as and is caused by space environment, wherein space radiation environment about 2300 times of bringing out.People's statistics of 1996 such as the U.S. Hecht and Remez show, " fault that nearly 40 years of past spacecraft occurs and abnormal in, first 30 years by design and space environment cause more than 40%, within nearest 10 years, still have 36%." current, the situation that China's spacecraft affects causing trouble by space radiation environment also happens occasionally.

Analysis and research show, the root of Spacecraft malfunction is the various Space Radiation Effects that space radiation environment causes.Mainly comprise: single high energy particle causes the single particle effect of device logic inversion or breech lock, the charging and discharging effects that high energy electron produces at spacecraft built up inside, the radiation dose effect etc. that high energy particle is caused by ionization and discomposition.These effects directly can cause On board computer pseudoinstruction, spacecraft or group component materials performance degradation, device latch and burn, cause that computer for controlling is disorderly, spacecraft attitude is out of control or reversion, energy disappearance, even cause spacecraft to subtract longevity or inefficacy, the usefulness that greatly have impact on Aerospace Equipment Systems of Systems plays.

Therefore, Efficient Evaluation space radiation environment effect is on spacecraft impact in orbit, research space radiation environment effect and the spacecraft incidence relation in-orbit between exception, set up the method for early warning of spacecraft in-orbit based on space radiation environment effector mechanism, can according to space environment forecast result, systematically the harmfulness that spacecraft affects by space environment is in-orbit assessed, and to the contingent fault of spacecraft in-orbit after space environment event occurs, exception or state transition carry out early warning, processed in time by safe operation in-orbit, or take measures to prevent abnormal repetition to occur, thus ensure spacecraft safe and reliable operation in-orbit, guarantee satisfactorily completing of space mission.

At present mainly carry out fault diagnosis and early warning technology and technique study work based on the telemetry parameter passed under spacecraft at engineer applied and research field, space environment related research institutes also proposes to forecast based on space environment information.

1 based on the fault diagnosis of spacecraft telemetry parameter and method for early warning

1) based on the method for diagnosing faults of signal transacting.The method is one of diagnostic field application method comparatively early, mainly adopts threshold model.What signal analysis employing was more mainly contains time domain, frequency domain, amplitude, time and frequency zone specificity analysis etc.Signal processing method mainly contains: the Parameter analysis such as peak value, root-mean-square value, crest factor, form factor, measure of skewness index, relevant function method, circuit envelope method, Maximum Entropy Spectrum Method, scramble spectrometry, the synchronizing signal method of average, Autoregressive Spectrum Analysis method, wavelet analysis, fractals etc.Signal analysis method is the basis of other diagnostic method.

2) RBES diagnostic method.Rule-based method is also known as production method, and early stage fault diagnosis expert system is all rule-based, and these rules sum up out from the experience of expert, is used for describing the relation of fault and sign.The advantage of the method is that the representation of knowledge is simple, directly perceived, vivid, convenient, and use the direct representation of knowledge and relative simple heuristic knowledge, diagnostic reasoning speed is fast; Require that the storage space of data is relatively little; Be easy to programming and be easy to develop rapid prototyping system.Shortcoming is that the fault mode that knowledge base covers is limited, just seems helpless to what do not occur with the fault diagnosis of lacking experience; When accordingly do not mate with sign in knowledge base regular time, easily cause mistaken diagnosis or diagnose unsuccessfully.

3) based on the diagnostic method of fault tree.Fault tree is a kind of digraph embodying fault propagation relation, and using diagnosis object, it least wishes that event is as top event, successively launch according to the 26S Proteasome Structure and Function relation of object, until inseparable event (bottom event).Its advantage to realize quick diagnosis; Knowledge base is easy to on-the-fly modify, and can keep consistency; Probability inference can be used to the search passage of selective rule to a certain extent, improves diagnosis efficiency; Diagnostic techniques and field have nothing to do, as long as corresponding fault tree is given, just can realize diagnosis.Shortcoming be due to fault tree be based upon element contact and failure mode analysis (FMA) basis on, therefore can not diagnose unpredictable fault; The completeness of diagnostic result heavy dependence fault tree information.

4) additive method, as the diagnostic method based on neural network, the method for diagnosing faults based on model, based on the method for diagnosing faults of Petri network, the method for diagnosing faults etc. of multi-sensor information fusion.

The existing fault early warning method looked into mainly is predicted the future trends of spacecraft telemetry parameter, and will predict that the parameter value obtained substitutes into fault diagnosis system and diagnoses, the diagnostic result obtained is early warning result.

2 based on the method for early warning of space environment information

The domestic mechanism specializing in space environment is (as space center of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Purple Mountain Observatory etc.) in conjunction with space environment model and data, according to the solar activity observed, space environment event in following a period of time and geomagnetic activity level are predicted and forecast, according to events such as the proton event of different stage, electron event and geomagnetic storms, spacecraft security of operation is in orbit proposed to the early warning of universality.

Method for early warning based on space environment information also has some limitations, the mean value that what the first current space environment information obtained by Space environment monitor mechanism was described mostly is in global range, there is larger difference in not co-orbital spacecraft experience space environment, the space environment data only by equalization are difficult to the exact numerical obtaining track residing for certain spacecraft; Secondly because the radiation-hardened design degree of spacecraft there are differences, the single-particle inversion threshold value of the components and parts selected is different with radioresistance accumulated dose, space environment is not identical with degree to the Influencing Mechanism of spacecraft yet, single from the angle of space environment be difficult to quantitatively evaluating its to the influence degree of certain spacecraft, therefore based on the method for early warning limited efficiency of space environment data.

Said method is all from the Changing Pattern of spacecraft telemetry, and research is diagnosed and method for early warning.But find in reality in-orbit management work, 80% extremely triggered by space environment factor, and much abnormal associated telemetry parameter can suddenly change when occurring abnormal in generation, the mode being difficult to be predicted by telemetry parameter is found.Therefore abnormal for this type of, pre existing alarm method effect is poor.

Summary of the invention

For solving the problem, the invention provides a kind of method for early warning affected by space environment based on the satellite in orbit of incidence relation, it, by the abnormal incidence relation analysis and extremely carry out early warning in-orbit to satellite according to spaceborne high energy particle flux detecting devices real time data in-orbit of single particle effect and satellite, has the advantage that confidence level, specific aim and accuracy are high.

The method for early warning affected by space environment based on the satellite in orbit of incidence relation of the present invention, it comprises:

Step 1, to particle effect and satellite in-orbit abnormal incidence relation analyze, obtain the incidence relation Xo (T) that confidence level and the degree of correlation exceed the time domain between the two of setting threshold value:

Step 11, picks wild pre-service to the detecting devices data of the spaceborne high energy particle flux detecting devices of the Seeds of First Post-flight in certain historical period T, is then translated into the high energy particle flux Lo (T) in space residing for this history period T satellite;

Wherein, pick wild pre-service and comprise three steps:

The first step: will the unruly-value rejecting of detecting devices data range be exceeded;

Second step: carry out data screening according to the kind of detecting devices data and the substar position of data acquisition moment corresponding satellite:

Detecting devices data are the situation of proton data: for data acquisition moment, substar position not in the proton data of region, South Atlantic Ocean or two polar regions, if two continuous frames data jump exceedes 50% of detecting devices data range, then after thinking, frame data are outlier and reject; Data acquisition moment, substar position are in the proton data of region, South Atlantic Ocean or two polar regions, if two continuous frames data jump exceedes 50% of detecting devices data range, and this situation occurs more than 3 times continuously, then think that the data of this period are outlier and reject;

Detecting devices data are the situation of heavy ion and electronic data: for heavy ion and the electronic data of data acquisition moment, Bu Liang polar region, substar position, if two continuous frames data jump exceedes 50% of detecting devices data range, then after thinking, frame data are outlier and reject; The heavy ion of two polar regions and electronic data heavy ion and electronic data are in for data acquisition moment substar position, if two continuous frames data jump exceedes 50% of detecting devices data range, and this situation occurs more than 3 times continuously, then think that this period data is outlier and rejects;

Step 12, utilize single particle effect algorithm to calculate to the high energy particle flux Lo (T) in space residing for history period T satellite, obtain the quantizating index Go (T) that satellite Star Service central computer SRAM device affects by space radiation environment at this period T;

Computing method are:

Utilize formula obtain the quantizating index Go (To) that affects by space radiation environment of To moment, wherein, σ (E) for the particle spectrum particle that is E on the index that affects of effect chip namely overturn number of times; F (E) for particle that power spectrum is E carry out rejecting pre-service after be converted into the flux Lo (To) of the acquisition in the TO moment in the T period; δ (E)=cos θ, wherein θ is the angle that this power spectrum particle detection channel direction and sram chip install normal direction; Integration is carried out to Go (To) and obtains Go (T);

Need in above-mentioned computing method to carry out adaptability selection to particle spectrum, if particle is proton, then selection proton spectrum is the power spectrum between 10Mev to 300Mev; If particle is heavy ion, then heavy ion power spectrum selects the power spectrum of He, C, Li, Mg, Ar, Fe race ion; If particle is electronics, then electronic energy spectrum selects the power spectrum of whole electronics;

, there is to the exception of quantizating index Go (T) in this period T the incidence relation Xo (T) that moment A (T) utilizes the method for data mining or data statistics to obtain between Go (T) and A (T) in step 13;

Step 2, according to the detecting devices real time data of the spaceborne high energy particle flux detecting devices of Seeds of First Post-flight, utilizes the mode of step 11 to obtain high energy particle flux L (t) in space residing for current time t satellite; Then according to quantizating index G (t) that high energy particle flux L (t) utilizes the mode of step 12 to obtain satellite Star Service central computer SRAM device to affect by space radiation environment in t;

Step 3, in incidence relation Xo (T), A (t) is found for G (t), adopt Apriori algorithm to obtain according to G (t) and the incidence relation of A (t) and multiplely support angle value and multiple confidence value supporting angle value corresponding, at multiple incidence relation supporting to select in angle value to support that angle value is maximum, if this support angle value is greater than 0.6, then warning message is " having " and confidence value corresponding to this support angle value is early warning value Y (t), if this support angle value is less than or equal to 0.6, then warning message is "None".

Beneficial effect:

Satellite in orbit based on Anomalous mechanism of the present invention affects by space environment the abnormity early warning method that takes place frequently; the exception of independently cutting machine is there is in-orbit because its SRAM device anti-single particle ability is weak in it for certain remote sensing satellite Star Service central computer; at quantitative evaluation single particle effect on its basis affected; based on the method for incidence relation research, realize utilizing spaceborne high energy particle detecting devices data to carry out early warning to the contingent situation of this exception.Concrete:

1. according to space radiation environment effector mechanism, space radiation environment is on the impact of satellite, directly related with the high energy particle flux of the actual present position of satellite, therefore the method utilizes spaceborne high energy particle detecting devices as initial conditions, carry out early warning compared to the environmental information issued by space environment research institution, there is advantage with a high credibility;

2. affect the satellite of generation extremely by space radiation environment, that space environment acts on performance satellite equipment device causing the physical change of physics logical OR, design directly related with the radiation proof of functioning devices, therefore the method is for the exception that takes place frequently of particular satellite clear mechanism, single particle effect based on abnormal device carries out early warning, universality early warning is carried out, the advantage that pointed and accuracy is high compared to all exceptions;

3. the method is based on space environment data, fundamentally solves abnormal associated telemetry parameter (Star Service central computer is when airliner state) and can produce sudden change when occurring abnormal, the difficult problem that the mode being difficult to be predicted by telemetry parameter is found.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is space radiation environment of the present invention and spacecraft abnormal incidence relation analysis process figure in-orbit;

Fig. 2 is that space environment forecast result of the present invention carries out early warning process flow diagram in-orbit extremely to spacecraft;

Fig. 3 is Seeds of First Post-flight Detector for High Energy Particles proton Ge Neng road of the present invention result of detection schematic diagram;

Fig. 4 is Seeds of First Post-flight Detector for High Energy Particles high-energy heavy ion >C channel detection result schematic diagram of the present invention;

Fig. 5 is that single-particle inversion number of times (G) of the present invention contrasts schematic diagram with satellite anomalous event.

Embodiment

The method for early warning affected by space environment based on the satellite in orbit of incidence relation of the present invention, it comprises:

Step 1, particle effect and satellite be abnormal incidence relation analysis in-orbit, obtains.As shown in Figure 1, particular content is:

Step 11, utilizes " telemetry data reduction processing method " to transform to the detecting devices data of the spaceborne high energy particle flux detecting devices of Seeds of First Post-flight, obtains the high energy particle flux L in space residing for history period T satellite after picking wild pre-service _o(T);

The spaceborne high energy particle flux detecting devices data of Seeds of First Post-flight can generate some outlier in transmission and process.These outlier can bring deviation to follow-up analytical calculation, so need detecting devices data to be carried out picking wild pre-service.Pre-service mainly comprises three steps:

The first step: will exceed the unruly-value rejecting of detecting devices data range, detecting devices data range is generally 0-5V.

Second step: carry out data screening according to the kind of detecting devices data and the substar position of data acquisition moment corresponding satellite:

Detecting devices data are the situation of proton data: for data acquisition moment, substar position not at region, South Atlantic Ocean (latitude scope 10N-60S, longitude range 20E-100W) or the situation of two polar regions (latitude more than 70), if a data two continuous frames data jump exceedes 50% of detecting devices data range, then after thinking, frame data are outlier and reject; Region, South Atlantic Ocean or two polar regions are in for data acquisition moment, substar position, if a data two continuous frames data jump exceedes 50% of detecting devices data range, and this situation occurs more than 3 times continuously, then think that the data of this period are outlier and reject;

Detecting devices data are the situation of heavy ion and electronic data: for the situation of data acquisition moment, Bu Liang polar region, substar position (latitude more than 70), if a data two continuous frames data jump exceedes 50% of detecting devices data range, then after thinking, frame data are outlier and reject; Data acquisition moment substar position is in the situation of two polar regions, if a data two continuous frames data jump exceedes 50% of detecting devices data range, and this situation occurs more than 3 times continuously, then think that this period data is outlier and rejects;

3rd step: by the extracting cycle of detecting devices data with characterize satellite, the collection period that Star Service central computer independently cuts the telemetry parameter of machine occurs be set to identical (as being set to 50s).

Step 12, to the high energy particle flux L in space residing for history period T satellite _o(T) utilize single particle effect algorithm of the prior art to calculate, obtain the quantizating index G that satellite Star Service central computer SRAM device affects by space radiation environment at this period T _o(T);

According to satellite anti-space environmental radiation safeguard procedures, single particle effect mechanism and data statistic analysis result in-orbit, when calculating quantizating index, first need to carry out adaptability selection to particle spectrum, proton spectrum is selected: the electronics that 10Mev to 300Mev, heavy ion power spectrum select He, C, Li, Mg, Ar, Fe race ion, electronic energy spectrum selects whole power spectrum; And increase detecting devices data installation direction factor delta=cos θ, wherein θ is the angle that this power spectrum particle detection channel direction and sram chip install normal direction.

Circular is as follows:

Step 121, by the single particle (power spectrum is E) of Edmonds function computer memory on the index of effect chip impact, namely overturn number of times σ (E).Formula is as follows:

σ(E)＝σ _SAT·exp(-(L _1//e)/E)

Wherein, σ _sATfor saturated cross section, L _1/efor saturation threshold is reduced to the energy spectrum at 1/e place, both are anti-space radiation environment indication informations (being obtained by ground experiment) that SRAM device occurs.

Step 122, obtain this moment spacecraft space and all can compose the single particle effect of probability Go (To) (upset number of times) full kind particle produces to(for) target devices, formula is as follows, and wherein F (E) is the flux L0 (T0) in the TO moment of particle in the T period of E for power spectrum.

Go(To)＝ΣF(E)·σ(E)·δ(E)

Integration is carried out to Go (To) and obtains G _o(T);

Step 13, there is the quantizating index G that moment A (T) utilizes the method for data mining or data statistics to affect by space radiation environment this period T that step 12 obtains in the exception in this period _o(T) carry out processing the incidence relation X (T) obtaining confidence level and the degree of correlation and exceed the time domain between the two of setting threshold value.

Step 131, quantizating index G _o(T) Data Discretization pre-service, and pretreated data are stitched together, generate data analysis matrix.The multiple method of prior art all can realize, and only enumerates a kind of method at this:

(1) quantizating index G _o(T) sliding-model control GO data: carry out three grades of discretizes, when GOTO value interval [0,100) time be set to 0, interval [100,1000) time be set to 1, interval [1000, ∞) time be set to 2.This, for being a kind of discretize strategy, adjusts it according to analysis result in real work repeatedly.

(2) sliding-model control abnormal case in-orbit: abnormal time of origin A (T0) is carried out sliding-model control according to YYYY-MM-DDHH:MM:SS form (date, Hour Minute Second), when fault being occurred, substar position residing for satellite is discrete turns to South Atlantic Region, two polar regions and other areas, other information do not process, ordinate is abnormal data, horizontal ordinate GO (t).

Calculate G (T) data persistence influence time index

By analysis, certain time is understood in single particle effect impact, analyzes G (T) data and the relation in-orbit between exception by calculating long lasting effect time index index.Continuous influence time formula of index is as follows:

$E\left(T\right)=\underset{t\≤T,t>T-m}{\mathrm{\Σ}}G\left(t\right)e^{-\mathrm{\λ}(T-t)}$

Wherein E (T) represents G (t) the data persistence influence time index in t, and T, t are in units of 50 seconds, and λ is decay factor, and m is the maximum number of days participating in computing.Wherein the value of λ and m is specified by user.When be 0, m being 600 according to analysis definable: λ, its effect be in employing 10 minutes G (t) data sum as long lasting effect time index.

(3) discretize G (T) data persistence influence time index

According to following rule, discretize is carried out to G (T) data persistence influence time index, when long lasting effect time index E (T) value interval [0,600) time be set to 0, interval [600,3000) be set to 1 time, interval [3000,6000) time be set to 2, interval [6000,12000) be set to 3 time, interval [12000,60000) time be set to 4, interval [60000, infinitely great) time be set to 5.This, for being a kind of discretize strategy, adjusts it according to analysis result in real work repeatedly.

Step 132, incidence relation extracts, and prior art has accomplished in many ways, only enumerates wherein a kind of:

Adopt Apriori algorithm to carry out incidence relation analysis to the data analysis matrix that step 131 generates, obtain Association Rules, the form of every bar correlation rule is as follows:

Because of=>{ fruit support confidence level

Wherein " because of " be that the discretize of G (T) data and long lasting effect time index is described, " really " is that the discretize description that machine independently cut by Star Service central computer occurs, and support and confidence level describe the probability that this cause-effect relationship is set up.Be exemplified below:

{ there is Star Service central computer and independently cut machine extremely in G (t)=2=>{ } 0.6 0.6

Step 2, carries out early warning according to spaceborne high energy particle flux detecting devices real time data to satellite, as shown in Figure 2 in-orbit extremely.

Step 21, according to the spaceborne high energy particle flux detecting devices real time data of Seeds of First Post-flight, obtains high energy particle flux L (t) in space residing for current time (t) satellite; With step 11, repeat no more herein.

Step 22, according to quantizating index G (t) that high energy particle flux L (t) utilizes single particle effect algorithm to obtain satellite Star Service central computer SRAM device to affect by space radiation environment in t; With step 12, repeat no more herein.

Step 3, the space environment of the corresponding exception summed up based on historical data and space radiation environment and satellite in-orbit abnormal incidence relation X (T) utilize quantizating index G (t), can calculate that obtaining t satellite Star Service central computer independently cuts the contingent early warning information Y (t) of machine exception.

According to current G (t), (confidence level must reach more than 0.6 to select XO (T) incidence relation to concentrate confidence level the highest, if do not have, warning message is "None") incidence relation, if support is greater than 0.6, then this support is early warning value Y (t), namely abnormal possibility occurs and reaches this value, if do not have support to be greater than 0.6, then warning message is "None").

Embodiment one

Step one is added up in the satellite history period and number of times and the time that machine cut by Star Service central computer is occurred;

Choose satellite in November, 2009 between by the end of December, the time of statistics satellite generation Star Service central computer is as shown in table 1, and machine record sheet independently cut by table 1 satellite Star Service central computer.

Table 1

Sequence number	Time of origin
		1.	2009-11-25 16:50
2.	2009-11-25 18:27
		3.	2009-11-27 08:05
4.	2009-11-28 06:40
		5.	2009-11-28 01:19
6.	2009-12-1 08:44
		7.	2009-12-1 10:17
8.	2009-12-5 13:34
		9.	2009-12-7 07:08
10.	2009-12-10 14:41
		11.	2009-12-12 21:51

12.	2009-12-16 11:13
		13.	2009-12-18 22:00
14.	2009-12-19 14:39
		15.	2009-12-19 18:47
16.	2009-12-21 16:33
		17.	2009-12-25 12:57
18.	2009-12-26 19:34
		19.	2009-12-26 23:27
20.	2009-12-27 05:00
		21.	2009-12-29 23:20
22.	2009-12-30 23:26
		23.	2009-12-31 08:35
24.	2009-12-31 16:18

Step 2 analyzes the abnormal high energy particle flux that the moment occurs of satellite by the detecting devices carried, and calculates quantizating index; As shown in Figure 3, the data P1-P6 of original text energy proton flux detector 6 passages, corresponding different power spectrum.As shown in Figure 4, be the GO (T) of this period T.

A), when spacecraft occurs abnormal, utilize the detecting devices data of spaceborne space radiation environment detecting devices, obtain the high energy particle flux L in this moment _o(T);

B) utilize single particle effect algorithm, obtain the quantizating index G that this period of spacecraft affects by space radiation environment _o(T).

Step 3: incidence relation between refinement quantizating index GO (T) and spacecraft occur extremely;

The quantizating index GO that exception spacecraft history occurred and exception occur and affect by space radiation environment in the moment carries out data mining, obtains confidence level and the incidence relation X between the two of the degree of correlation more than 80%.

As shown in Figure 5, vertical dotted line top numeric representation single-particle inversion number of times in Fig. 5, "+" represents that there is abnormal generation the corresponding period, " o " represented in the corresponding period does not have anomalous event to occur, known by statistical study, when upset number of times is greater than 40.9 unit, the probability that machine cut by satellite generation Star Service central computer is 80%.

To there is Star Service central computer, step 4: according to spaceborne high energy particle detecting devices data, independently cuts that machine is abnormal carries out early warning.

According to the spaceborne high energy particle flux detecting devices real time data of Seeds of First Post-flight, obtain high energy particle flux L (t) in space residing for current time (t) satellite; Utilize single particle effect algorithm, satellite Star Service central computer SRAM device, at quantizating index G (t) that t affects by space radiation environment.Based on the exception of historical data summary and the incidence relation X (T) of space radiation environment in corresponding step 3, can calculate that obtaining t satellite Star Service central computer independently cuts the abnormal contingent early warning information Y (t) of machine.

Certainly; the present invention also can have other various embodiments; when not deviating from the present invention's spirit and essence thereof; those of ordinary skill in the art are when making various corresponding change and distortion according to the present invention, but these change accordingly and are out of shape the protection domain that all should belong to the claim appended by the present invention.

Claims (1)

1., based on the method for early warning that the satellite in orbit of incidence relation affects by space environment, it is characterized in that, comprising:

Step 1, to particle effect and satellite in-orbit abnormal incidence relation analyze, obtain the incidence relation Xo (T) that confidence level and the degree of correlation exceed the time domain between the two of setting threshold value:

Step 11, picks wild pre-service to the detecting devices data of the spaceborne high energy particle flux detecting devices of the Seeds of First Post-flight in certain historical period T, is then translated into the high energy particle flux Lo (T) in space residing for this history period T satellite;

Wherein, pick wild pre-service and comprise three steps:

The first step: will the unruly-value rejecting of detecting devices data range be exceeded;

Second step: carry out data screening according to the kind of detecting devices data and the substar position of data acquisition moment corresponding satellite:

Detecting devices data are the situation of proton data: for data acquisition moment, substar position not in the proton data of region, South Atlantic Ocean or two polar regions, if two continuous frames data jump exceedes 50% of detecting devices data range, then after thinking, frame data are outlier and reject; Data acquisition moment, substar position are in the proton data of region, South Atlantic Ocean or two polar regions, if two continuous frames data jump exceedes 50% of detecting devices data range, and this situation occurs more than 3 times continuously, then think that the data of this period are outlier and reject;

Detecting devices data are the situation of heavy ion and electronic data: for heavy ion and the electronic data of data acquisition moment, Bu Liang polar region, substar position, if two continuous frames data jump exceedes 50% of detecting devices data range, then after thinking, frame data are outlier and reject; The heavy ion of two polar regions and electronic data heavy ion and electronic data are in for data acquisition moment substar position, if two continuous frames data jump exceedes 50% of detecting devices data range, and this situation occurs more than 3 times continuously, then think that this period data is outlier and rejects;

Step 12, utilize single particle effect algorithm to calculate to the high energy particle flux Lo (T) in space residing for history period T satellite, obtain the quantizating index Go (T) that satellite Star Service central computer SRAM device affects by space radiation environment at this period T;

Computing method are:

Utilize formula obtain the quantizating index Go (To) that affects by space radiation environment of To moment, wherein, σ (E) for the particle spectrum particle that is E on the index that affects of effect chip namely overturn number of times; F (E) for particle that power spectrum is E carry out rejecting pre-service after be converted into the flux Lo (To) of the acquisition in the TO moment in the T period; δ (E)=cos θ, wherein θ is the angle that this power spectrum particle detection channel direction and sram chip install normal direction; Integration is carried out to Go (To) and obtains Go (T);

Need in above-mentioned computing method to carry out adaptability selection to particle spectrum, if particle is proton, then selection proton spectrum is the power spectrum between 10Mev to 300Mev; If particle is heavy ion, then heavy ion power spectrum selects the power spectrum of He, C, Li, Mg, Ar, Fe race ion; If particle is electronics, then electronic energy spectrum selects the power spectrum of whole electronics;

, there is to the exception of quantizating index Go (T) in this period T the incidence relation Xo (T) that moment A (T) utilizes the method for data mining or data statistics to obtain between Go (T) and A (T) in step 13;

Step 2, according to the detecting devices real time data of the spaceborne high energy particle flux detecting devices of Seeds of First Post-flight, utilizes the mode of step 11 to obtain high energy particle flux L (t) in space residing for current time t satellite; Then according to quantizating index G (t) that high energy particle flux L (t) utilizes the mode of step 12 to obtain satellite Star Service central computer SRAM device to affect by space radiation environment in t;

Step 3, in incidence relation Xo (T), A (t) is found for G (t), adopt Apriori algorithm to obtain according to G (t) and the incidence relation of A (t) and multiplely support angle value and multiple confidence value supporting angle value corresponding, at multiple incidence relation supporting to select in angle value to support that angle value is maximum, if this support angle value is greater than 0.6, then warning message is " having " and confidence value corresponding to this support angle value is early warning value Y (t), if this support angle value is less than or equal to 0.6, then warning message is "None".