CN103218754B - A kind of risk checking method of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets and device - Google Patents

A kind of risk checking method of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets and device Download PDF

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Publication number
CN103218754B
CN103218754B CN201310143771.1A CN201310143771A CN103218754B CN 103218754 B CN103218754 B CN 103218754B CN 201310143771 A CN201310143771 A CN 201310143771A CN 103218754 B CN103218754 B CN 103218754B
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China
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equipment
real
successful
current
failure
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CN201310143771.1A
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CN103218754A (en
Inventor
林少华
刘嘉宁
陈东
呼士召
马博
鲁跃峰
李博
潮铸
贾宏杰
曾沅
王丙东
王恩
刘哲
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广东电网公司电力调度控制中心
天津大学
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    • YGENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
    • Y04INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
    • Y04SSYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
    • Y04S10/00Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
    • Y04S10/50Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications

Abstract

The present invention proposes a kind of risk checking method of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets, receives the current operation instruction carried out object equipment, determines risk status information; Obtain voltage crosses the border under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development nodes, branch road overload number, each voltage cross the border the voltage actual magnitude of node, the actual fed power of each overload branch road; Obtain the load summate amount when reduction of fault generation afterload, current operation success; Obtain the real-time probability carrying out current operation success and failure; Obtain the real-time probability that the real-time probability, the object equipment that break down when operation failure break down when successful operation; Obtain the risk indicator of current operation; When risk indicator is greater than or equal to predetermined numerical value, send warning.The present invention also proposes a kind of risk supervision device of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets, can detect the safety case performing the electrical network that Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets may cause in advance; Ensure the safe operation of electric system.

Description

A kind of risk checking method of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets and device
Technical field
The present invention relates to dispatching of power netwoks control field, particularly relate to a kind of risk checking method and device of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets.
Background technology
In order to ensure power grid security, economy and reliability service, yardman must take rational scheduling operation.Current yardman's Main Basis electrical network real-time running data and personal experience operate electrical network.Scheduling operation instruction ticket has a set of comparatively complete operating process and control method from drafting final execution, ensure that the security of power scheduling to a great extent.But consider the uncertain factor such as inclement weather, equipment failure and maloperation in operation implementation, scheduling operation possibly cannot normally perform, influential system safe and stable operation.
At present deterministic safe school lotus is mainly concentrated on to the research of scheduling operation, operate links by monitoring and scheduling, prevent maloperation from occurring; But also there is no the technology that can detect to the risk that system is brought scheduling operation.
Summary of the invention
The object of the invention is to propose the real-time risk checking method of a kind of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets and device, the safety case performing the electrical network that Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets may cause can be detected in advance; Ensure the safe operation of electric system.
The scheme adopted:
S1, receive the current operation instruction that object equipment is carried out, determine the risk status information of described object equipment being carried out to described current operation;
S2, carry out Load flow calculation according to described risk status information, obtain the described object equipment nodes that voltage crosses the border under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development, branch road overload number, each voltage cross the border the voltage actual magnitude of node and the actual fed power of each overload branch road;
S3, carry out topology calculate according to described risk status information, obtain the load summate amount when reduction of fault generation afterload, current operation success;
S4, the probability of failure described object equipment being carried out to current operation added up according to Real Time Effect Summing Factor, obtain and carry out current operation successfully real-time probability and failed real-time probability to described object equipment;
The historical statistics probability broken down when S5, the historical statistics probability broken down when operation failure according to object equipment, object equipment are in successful operation and the described Real Time Effect factor, obtain the real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when operation failure, real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when successful operation;
S6, the nodes crossed the border according to described voltage and each voltage cross the border the voltage actual magnitude of node, the reduction of described fault generation afterload, the success of described current operation time load summate amount, described branch road overload number and the actual fed power of each overload branch road, described object equipment break down when operation failure real-time probability, described object equipment in successful operation time break down real-time probability, described current operation successfully probability and current operation failure in real time real-time probability, obtain the risk indicator of described object equipment being carried out to current operation;
S7, when described risk indicator is greater than or equal to predetermined numerical value, send warning.
And a kind of risk supervision device of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets, comprising:
Risk status determining unit, for receiving the current operation instruction carried out object equipment, determines the risk status information of described object equipment being carried out to described current operation;
First computing unit, for carrying out Load flow calculation according to described risk status information, obtain the described object equipment nodes that voltage crosses the border under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development, the actual fed power of voltage actual magnitude that branch road overload number, each voltage cross the border node and each overload branch road;
Second computing unit, for carrying out topology calculate according to described risk status information, obtains the load summate amount when reduction of fault generation afterload, current operation success;
First acquiring unit, for the probability of failure described object equipment being carried out to current operation added up according to Real Time Effect Summing Factor, obtains and carries out current operation successfully real-time probability and failed real-time probability to described object equipment;
Second acquisition unit, for break down when operation failure according to object equipment historical statistics probability, object equipment in successful operation time the historical statistics probability that breaks down and the described Real Time Effect factor, obtain the real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when operation failure, real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when successful operation;
3rd acquiring unit, to cross the border for the nodes that crosses the border according to described voltage and each voltage the voltage actual magnitude of node, the reduction of described fault generation afterload, load summate amount during described current operation success, the actual fed power of described branch road overload number and each overload branch road, the real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when operation failure, the real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when successful operation, the real-time probability of described current operation successful probability and current operation failure in real time, obtain the risk indicator of described object equipment being carried out to current operation,
Alarm unit, for when described risk indicator is greater than or equal to predetermined numerical value, sends warning.
The present invention, from scheduling operation success and failure both direction, detects in advance and carries out on object equipment the power grid security impact that current operation may cause, receive the current operation instruction to object equipment, determine the risk status information that may cause; According to probability object equipment being carried out to current operation success and failure of the Real Time Effect Summing Factor historical statistics carried out when actual schedule operates, determine the real-time probability of this successful operation and failure; According to historical statistics current operation success and failure is carried out to object equipment after the probability that breaks down, the probability broken down after determining this successful operation and failure; Topology calculate and Load flow calculation are carried out to risk status information, obtains corresponding result; According to the probability, topology calculate result, the calculation of tidal current that break down after this successful operation and failed real-time probability, this successful operation and failure, obtain the risk indicator of this operation; When risk indicator is greater than or equal to threshold value, send warning; Thus detect the safety case performing the electrical network that Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets may cause in advance; Ensure the safe operation of electric system.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is an implementing procedure figure of the inventive method;
Fig. 2 is voltage out-of-limit consequence quantization function figure in the present invention;
Fig. 3 is the biological clock departure degree functional arrangement relevant to the man's activity factor;
Fig. 4 is the system list electrical schematic of a specific embodiment of the present invention;
Fig. 5 is a structural representation of apparatus of the present invention.
Embodiment
The present invention proposes a kind of risk checking method of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets, and it implements process flow diagram as Fig. 1, comprises step:
S1, receive the current operation instruction that object equipment is carried out, determine the risk status information of object equipment being carried out to current operation;
Wherein, risk status information comprises: carry out the risk status information of current operation, the successful operation state of development information of object equipment and the object equipment historical statistics status information when operation failure to object equipment;
To the risk of the scheduling operation of electrical network mainly from following three aspects: first, element itself breaks down the risk causing operation failure to produce, namely: the historical statistics status information of object equipment when operation failure, such as, in cut-off switch operating process, switch blast cause switch connect busbar grounding; The second, the risk that after scheduling operation success, system itself is existing, namely: the risk status information of object equipment being carried out to current operation, such as, after Closing Switch, may cause some circuit to transship; 3rd, after scheduling operation success, system reliability reduces, the risk developing fault generation may be there is, namely: the successful operation state of development information of object equipment, such as Shuan Mu wiring transformer station, if one bus turns maintenance by running, if then another bus breaks down whole transformer station all devices will be caused to have a power failure.
For better understanding above-mentioned three kinds of risk status information, be described further below:
1, the historical statistics status information of object equipment when operation failure, is a set, can be designated as S f
Suppose that certain scheduling operation is to element e icarry out, cause the element fault set C (e of this operation failure i) such as formula shown in (1),
C ( e i ) = { C e i 1 , C e i 2 , . . . , C e i n } - - - ( 1 )
Wherein, be n-th may cause element e ithe element fault of operation failure;
Set C (e i) in n element fault cause element e isystem state collection after operation failure is defined as element e ioperation failure state set S f(e i),
S f ( e i ) = { S ( C e i 1 ) , S ( C e i 2 ) , . . . , S ( C e i n ) - - - ( 2 )
Wherein, it is the n-th element fault cause element e isystem state after operation failure;
2, the successful operation state of development information of object equipment, is a set, can be designated as S d
Define certain fault F and element e ithe degree of association as follows:
Con ( e i , F ) = 1 0 - - - ( 3 )
Wherein, Con (e i, F)=1 represent to element e iafter Successful Operation, fault F generation can cause significant consequences to system, and its numerical value can be determined according to fault F consequence;
Suppose the consequence caused to system after ξ (F) representing fault F occurs, ξ 0the consequence cutoff value of representative setting, d (± e i) represent element e isuccessful operation, determines Con (e by following logical relation i, F) and value:
For fault F, if ξ (F) > is ξ 0have and only have a precondition d (± e i), then Con (e i, F)=1, otherwise Con (e i, F)=0;
All with element e ithe degree of association be 1 fault constitute element e idevelopment fault set F (e after Successful Operation i),
F ( e i ) = { F e i 1 , F e i 2 , . . . , F e i k } - - - ( 4 )
Wherein, each fault be called element e idevelopment fault, then an element e after Successful Operation istate of development collection S after successful operation d(e i) such as formula shown in (5),
S d ( e i ) = { S ( F e i 1 ) , S ( F e i 2 ) , . . . , S ( F e i n ) - - - ( 5 )
Wherein, for a kth development fault system state after occurring;
3, object equipment is carried out to the risk status information of current operation, can S be designated as n
Suppose that certain scheduling operation is for element e icarry out, then to element e isystem state after successful operation is successful operation state S n(e i).
In one embodiment, S1 step is specially:
Receive the current operation instruction that object equipment is carried out;
When object equipment is in predetermined power flowcontrol section, exit the control section equipment in predetermined power flowcontrol section one by one, obtain the successful operation state of development information of object equipment; Wherein, control section equipment is the control section equipment in predetermined power flowcontrol section except object equipment;
Simulated operation is carried out to object equipment, obtains the successful operation status information of object equipment; The object equipment historical statistics status information when operation failure is obtained according to historical statistical data.
S2, according to risk status information, obtain the object equipment nodes that voltage crosses the border under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development, branch road overload number, each voltage cross the border the voltage actual magnitude of node and the actual fed power of each overload branch road;
Concrete, this step is: carry out Load flow calculation according to risk status information, obtains the object equipment nodes that voltage crosses the border under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development, branch road overload number, each voltage cross the border the voltage actual magnitude of node and the actual fed power of each overload branch road.
As one of them embodiment, this step can be: carry out Connectivity analysis to the scheduling operation risk status chosen, and the every bar bus in system state is all a node, and every bar circuit and main transformer are all the connecting lines between node and node.Connectivity analysis is exactly analyze the connecting line between each node and every other node, if there is not connecting line between certain node and every other node, then on the bus corresponding to this node connect load will be cut.
Carry out Load flow calculation according to risk status information, be the technological means known by those skilled in the art, therefore no longer repeat.
S3, according to risk status information, obtain the load summate amount when reduction of fault generation afterload, current operation success;
Concrete, this step is: carry out topology calculate according to risk status information, obtains the load summate amount when reduction of fault generation afterload, current operation success.
Carry out topology calculate according to risk status information, be the technological means known by those skilled in the art, therefore no longer repeat.
S4, probability of failure object equipment being carried out to current operation added up according to Real Time Effect Summing Factor, obtain and carry out current operation successfully real-time probability and failed real-time probability to object equipment;
The real-time probability that the real-time probability that S5, acquisition object equipment break down when operation failure, object equipment break down when successful operation;
Concrete, this step is:
The historical statistics probability broken down when the historical statistics probability broken down when operation failure according to object equipment, object equipment are in successful operation and the Real Time Effect factor, obtain real-time probability that object equipment breaks down when operation failure, real-time probability that object equipment breaks down when successful operation.
S6, according to the data in step S2, S3, S4, S5, obtain the risk indicator of object equipment being carried out to current operation;
Concrete, this step is:
The nodes crossed the border according to voltage and each voltage cross the border the voltage actual magnitude of node, fault generation afterload reduction, current operation success time the actual fed power of load summate amount, branch road overload number and each overload branch road, object the equipment real-time probability, the object equipment that break down when operation failure break down when successful operation real-time probability, current operation successfully probability and current operation failure in real time real-time probability, obtain the risk indicator of object equipment being carried out to current operation.
S7, when risk indicator is greater than or equal to predetermined numerical value, send warning.
The present invention, from scheduling operation success and failure both direction, detects in advance and carries out on object equipment the power grid security impact that current operation may cause, receive the current operation instruction to object equipment, determine the risk status information that may cause; According to probability object equipment being carried out to current operation success and failure of the Real Time Effect Summing Factor historical statistics carried out when actual schedule operates, determine the real-time probability of this successful operation and failure; According to historical statistics current operation success and failure is carried out to object equipment after the probability that breaks down, the probability broken down after determining this successful operation and failure; Topology calculate and Load flow calculation are carried out to risk status information, obtains corresponding result; According to the probability, topology calculate result, the calculation of tidal current that break down after this successful operation and failed real-time probability, this successful operation and failure, obtain the risk indicator of this operation; When risk indicator is greater than or equal to threshold value, send warning; Thus detect the safety case performing the electrical network that Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets may cause in advance; Ensure the safe operation of electric system.
In the above-described embodiments, step S2, S3, S4, S5, not by the restriction of above-mentioned record order, that is to say, step S2, step S3, step S4, step S5 can carry out simultaneously, can carry out according to certain order, also can first carry out wherein arbitrary step.
In the above-described embodiments, the Real Time Effect factor comprises: the running status of the weather effect factor, the man's activity factor and equipment;
For ease of understanding, below the Real Time Effect factor is further described:
weather effect factor lambda
The impact that main consideration Different climate condition produces for scheduling operation, its value is as shown in table 1 below, according to execution area and the start time of scheduling operation, automatically gathers Weather information and calculate the weather effect factor from weather forecast;
Table 1 weather effect factor value
1. typhoon: yellow early warning gets 1 ~ 1.2, orange early warning gets 1.2 ~ 1.5, red early warning gets 1.5 ~ 2;
2. thunderstorm gale: yellow early warning gets 1 ~ 1.2, orange early warning gets 1.2 ~ 1.5, red early warning gets 1.5 ~ 2;
3. risk of forest fire: orange early warning gets 1 ~ 1.2, and red early warning gets 1 ~ 1.5;
4. high temperature: orange early warning gets 1.1, and red early warning gets 1.2;
5. dense fog: orange early warning gets 1.1, and red early warning gets 1.2;
6. freeze: look weather condition and line ice coating situation value;
man's activity factor τ
Consider that the degree of fatigue of dispatcher can have an impact to operation, the man's activity factor is relevant with biological clock departure degree primarily of the executed operational densities of dispatcher, and its computing formula is as follows:
τ=τ 1τ 2
Wherein, τ 1 is biological clock coefficient of deviation, the departure degree of main reflection dispatcher's working time and human normal biological clock; Its value can obtain according to Fig. 3, and τ 2 is the density that dispatcher carries out operating, and calculate according to counting the number of instructions that dispatcher assigned in 30min before instruction issuing from system directive, formula is as follows:
τ 2 = e x t 30
Wherein, xt is the dispatch command number that the dispatcher counted from system directive has assigned in 30min before instruction issuing.
the running status ξ of equipment
The impact that before operation performs, the running status of equipment produces operation, its computing formula is as follows:
ξ=e ΔV
Wherein, Δ V is equipment superpotential degree, and computing formula is as follows:
ΔV = 0 V x ≤ V N V x - V N V N V x > V N
Wherein, VN is equipment rated voltage, and Vx is equipment present operating voltage.
S4 step is specially:
Obtain according to following formula and current operation successfully real-time probability and failed probability is carried out to object equipment;
P f=λτξ·P f0
P s=1.0-P f
Wherein, P sand P fbe respectively and current operation successfully real-time probability and failed real-time probability is carried out to object equipment; P f0for historical statistics electric grid operating probability of failure; λ, τ, ξ represent running status three kinds of Real Time Effect factors of the weather effect factor, the man's activity factor and equipment respectively.
Wherein in an embodiment, S5 step is specially:
The real-time probability broken down when obtaining real-time probability that object equipment breaks down when operation failure, object equipment in successful operation according to following formula;
P f,j=P f,j0;P s,j=λP s,j0
Wherein, P f,jand P f, j0be respectively real-time probability that object equipment breaks down when operation failure and the historical statistics probability that object equipment breaks down when operation failure; P s, jand P f, j0be respectively real-time probability that object equipment breaks down when successful operation and the historical statistics probability that object equipment breaks down when successful operation; λ represents the weather effect factor.
In power grid risk evaluation index, generally comprise following three kinds of indexs: voltage cross border risk index, branch road overload risk indicator and load summate risk indicator.
Wherein in an embodiment, S6 step is specially:
The nodes crossed the border according to the voltage under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development and each voltage cross the border the voltage actual magnitude of node, and the voltage obtained when carrying out current operation to object equipment crosses the border consequence quantized value;
According to the actual fed power of the branch road overload number under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development and each overload branch road, obtain branch road overload consequence quantized value when as equipment current operation carries out to object;
Load summate consequence quantized value when current operation carries out to object equipment is obtained according to the load summate amount when reduction of fault generation afterload, current operation success;
Voltage cross border risk index is obtained according to following formula;
R U = P s [ Σ i = 1 t g ( U i ) + Σ j = 1 k P s , j Σ i = 1 m g ( U i ) ] + P f Σ j = 1 n P f , j Σ i = 1 h g ( U i )
Branch road overload risk indicator is obtained according to following formula;
R O = P f Σ j = 1 n P f , j Σ i = 1 q K ( S i ) ( S i - S r , i S r , i ) + P s [ Σ i = 1 z K ( S i ) ( S i - S r , i S r , i ) + Σ j = 1 k P s , j Σ i = 1 x K ( S i ) ( S i - S r , i S r , i ) ]
Load summate risk indicator is obtained according to following formula;
R L = P s [ α 0 L 0 + Σ j = 1 k P s , j α j L j ] + P f Σ j = 1 n P f , j α j L j
Wherein, P sand P fbe respectively and current operation successfully real-time probability and failed real-time probability is carried out to object equipment; P s, jand P f, jbe respectively real-time probability that object equipment breaks down when successful operation and the real-time probability that object equipment breaks down when operation failure; K and n is respectively number object equipment being carried out to the risk status information of current operation, the object equipment historical statistics status information when operation failure;
L jfor the reduction of afterload occurs fault j; α jfor load L jimportant coefficient; L 0for load summate amount during current operation success; α 0for load L 0important coefficient;
Q, z and x are respectively object equipment branch road overload number under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development; S ifor the actual fed power of overload branch road i, S r, ifor the power delivery limits value of branch road i, K (S i) for carrying out current operation to object as equipment time branch road overload consequence quantized value, work as S ibe greater than S r, itime, K (S i) value is 1; Work as S ibe less than or equal to S r, itime, K (S i) value is 0;
H, m and t are respectively the object equipment nodes that voltage crosses the border under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development; U ifor node i voltage actual magnitude; G (U i) be node i voltage out-of-limit consequence quantized value;
Wherein, according to Fig. 2, g (U i) according to U i, U 1i, U uirelation determine, U 1i, U uibe respectively node i acceptable lower voltage limit and higher limit.
In electric grid operating risk indicator, voltage cross border risk index, branch road overload risk indicator and these three indexs of load summate risk indicator all need to meet some requirements, for ease of the different situations for these three kinds of indexs, need judge mechanism respectively, then step S7 is specially:
When voltage cross border risk index is greater than or equal to the first predetermined numerical value, send warning; When branch road overload risk indicator is greater than or equal to the second predetermined numerical value, send warning; When load summate risk indicator is greater than or equal to the 3rd predetermined numerical value, send warning.
Generally speaking above-mentioned three kinds of warnings according to classification, can send different warnings, to remind associative operation personnel to carry out counter-measure.
For a better understanding of the present invention, be described with a specific embodiment below; With reference to figure 4, it is IEEERTS test macro list electrograph;
According to Fig. 4, suppose that circuit Bus15-Bus24 need turn cold standby by operation for some reason to operate, when supposing that operation performs, weather conditions are good, and night shift 18:00 performs, and before this operation performs, this yardman has sent 3 dispatch commands in nearest 30 minutes.Setting: the alarm threshold of voltage limit risk index is 4; The alarm threshold of the out-of-limit risk indicator of trend is 2; The alarm threshold of load summate risk indicator is 0.2; It should be noted that, when carrying out the operation of different step, the alarm threshold of same index can be different, for convenience of description, is all set as the same in this threshold value for same index.
Receive the operational order carried out object equipment, each instruction is as shown in table 2.Application the present invention carries out operational risk detection to this operation, can obtain the risk indicator of each step of this operation, as table 3;
Table 2, these operation concrete steps (single-phase make)
Table 3, the risk indicator of each step operation in operation
As table 3 is known, when carrying out the first step, second step, the 4th step and the 6th step, because voltage limit risk index is all greater than alarm door limit value 4, therefore warning can be sent; Remind yardman should formulate voltage Pre-control measures in advance when executable operations.
When carrying out the first step, second step, the 4th step and the 6th step, because tributary overload risk indicator is all greater than alarm door limit value 2, therefore warning can be sent; Remind yardman should formulate tributary overload Pre-control measures in advance when executable operations.
When carrying out the first step, the 4th step, because load summate risk indicator is all greater than alarm door limit value 0.2, therefore warning can be sent; Remind yardman should formulate load summate Pre-control measures in advance when executable operations.
The present invention also proposes a kind of risk supervision device of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets, and its structural representation, with reference to figure 5, comprising:
Risk status determining unit, for receiving the current operation instruction carried out object equipment, determines the risk status information of object equipment being carried out to current operation;
First computing unit, for carrying out Load flow calculation according to risk status information, obtaining the object equipment nodes that voltage crosses the border under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development, branch road overload number, each voltage cross the border the voltage actual magnitude of node and the actual fed power of each overload branch road;
Second computing unit, for carrying out topology calculate according to risk status information, obtains the load summate amount when reduction of fault generation afterload, current operation success;
First acquiring unit, for probability of failure object equipment being carried out to current operation added up according to Real Time Effect Summing Factor, obtains and carries out current operation successfully real-time probability and failed real-time probability to object equipment;
Second acquisition unit, for break down when operation failure according to object equipment historical statistics probability, object equipment in successful operation time the historical statistics probability that breaks down and the Real Time Effect factor, obtain real-time probability that object equipment breaks down when operation failure, real-time probability that object equipment breaks down when successful operation;
3rd acquiring unit, for the nodes that crosses the border according to voltage and each voltage cross the border the voltage actual magnitude of node, fault generation afterload reduction, current operation success time the actual fed power of load summate amount, branch road overload number and each overload branch road, object equipment break down when operation failure real-time probability, object equipment in successful operation time break down real-time probability, current operation successfully probability and current operation failure in real time real-time probability, obtain the risk indicator of object equipment being carried out to current operation;
Alarm unit, during for being greater than or equal to predetermined numerical value when risk indicator, sends warning.
The present invention, from scheduling operation success and failure both direction, detects in advance and carries out on object equipment the power grid security impact that current operation may cause, receive the current operation instruction to object equipment, determine the risk status information that may cause; According to probability object equipment being carried out to current operation success and failure of the Real Time Effect Summing Factor historical statistics carried out when actual schedule operates, determine the real-time probability of this successful operation and failure; According to historical statistics current operation success and failure is carried out to object equipment after the probability that breaks down, the probability broken down after determining this successful operation and failure; Topology calculate and Load flow calculation are carried out to risk status information, obtains corresponding result; According to the probability, topology calculate result, the calculation of tidal current that break down after this successful operation and failed real-time probability, this successful operation and failure, obtain the risk indicator of this operation; When risk indicator is greater than or equal to threshold value, send warning; Thus detect the safety case performing the electrical network that Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets may cause in advance; Ensure the safe operation of electric system.
Wherein, risk status information comprises: carry out the risk status information of current operation, the successful operation state of development information of object equipment and the object equipment historical statistics status information when operation failure to object equipment;
Risk status determining unit receives the current operation carried out object equipment, when object equipment is in predetermined power flowcontrol section, exits the control section equipment in predetermined power flowcontrol section one by one, obtains the successful operation state of development information of object equipment; Wherein, control section equipment is the control section equipment in predetermined power flowcontrol section except object equipment;
Simulated operation is carried out to object equipment, obtains the successful operation status information of object equipment; The object equipment historical statistics status information when operation failure is obtained according to historical statistical data.
Wherein in an embodiment, the Real Time Effect factor comprises: the running status of the weather effect factor, the man's activity factor and equipment;
First acquiring unit obtains according to following formula and carries out current operation successfully real-time probability and failed probability to object equipment;
P f=λτξ·P f0
P s=1.0-P f
Wherein, P sand P fbe respectively and current operation successfully real-time probability and failed real-time probability is carried out to object equipment; P f0for historical statistics electric grid operating probability of failure; λ, τ, ξ represent running status three kinds of Real Time Effect factors of the weather effect factor, the man's activity factor and equipment respectively.
Wherein in an embodiment, the real-time probability broken down when second acquisition unit obtains real-time probability that object equipment breaks down when operation failure, object equipment in successful operation according to following formula;
P f,j=P f,j0;P s,j=λP s,j0
Wherein, P f, jand P f, j0be respectively real-time probability that object equipment breaks down when operation failure and the historical statistics probability that object equipment breaks down when operation failure; P s, jand P f, j0be respectively real-time probability that object equipment breaks down when successful operation and the historical statistics probability that object equipment breaks down when successful operation; λ represents the weather effect factor.
Wherein in an embodiment, risk indicator comprises: voltage cross border risk index, branch road overload risk indicator and load summate risk indicator;
The nodes that 3rd acquiring unit crosses the border according to the voltage under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development and each voltage cross the border the voltage actual magnitude of node, and the voltage obtained when carrying out current operation to object equipment crosses the border consequence quantized value;
According to the actual fed power of the branch road overload number under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development and each overload branch road, obtain branch road overload consequence quantized value when as equipment current operation carries out to object;
Load summate consequence quantized value when current operation carries out to object equipment is obtained according to the load summate amount when reduction of fault generation afterload, current operation success;
Voltage cross border risk index is obtained according to following formula;
R U = P s [ Σ i = 1 t g ( U i ) + Σ j = 1 k P s , j Σ i = 1 m g ( U i ) ] + P f Σ j = 1 n P f , j Σ i = 1 h g ( U i )
Branch road overload risk indicator is obtained according to following formula;
R O = P f Σ j = 1 n P f , j Σ i = 1 q K ( S i ) ( S i - S r , i S r , i ) + P s [ Σ i = 1 z K ( S i ) ( S i - S r , i S r , i ) + Σ j = 1 k P s , j Σ i = 1 x K ( S i ) ( S i - S r , i S r , i ) ]
Load summate risk indicator is obtained according to following formula;
R L = P s [ α 0 L 0 + Σ j = 1 k P s , j α j L j ] + P f Σ j = 1 n P f , j α j L j
Wherein, P sand P fbe respectively and current operation successfully real-time probability and failed real-time probability is carried out to object equipment; P s, jand P f, jbe respectively real-time probability that object equipment breaks down when successful operation and the real-time probability that object equipment breaks down when operation failure; K and n is respectively number object equipment being carried out to the risk status information of current operation, the object equipment historical statistics status information when operation failure;
L jfor the reduction of afterload occurs fault j; α jfor load L jimportant coefficient; L 0for load summate amount during current operation success; α 0for load L 0important coefficient;
Q, z and x are respectively object equipment branch road overload number under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development; S ifor the actual fed power of overload branch road i, S r, ifor the power delivery limits value of branch road i, K (S i) for carrying out current operation to object as equipment time branch road overload consequence quantized value, work as S ibe greater than S r, itime, K (S i) value is 1; Work as S ibe less than or equal to S r, itime, K (S i) value is 0;
H, m and t are respectively the object equipment nodes that voltage crosses the border under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development; U ifor node i voltage actual magnitude; G (U i) be node i voltage out-of-limit consequence quantized value;
Alarm unit, when voltage cross border risk index is greater than or equal to the first predetermined numerical value, sends warning; When branch road overload risk indicator is greater than or equal to the second predetermined numerical value, send warning; When load summate risk indicator is greater than or equal to the 3rd predetermined numerical value, send warning.
The above embodiment only have expressed several embodiment of the present invention, and it describes comparatively concrete and detailed, but therefore can not be interpreted as the restriction to the scope of the claims of the present invention.It should be pointed out that for the person of ordinary skill of the art, without departing from the inventive concept of the premise, can also make some distortion and improvement, these all belong to protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, the protection domain of patent of the present invention should be as the criterion with claims.

Claims (8)

1. a risk checking method for Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets, is characterized in that, comprises step:
S1, receive the current operation instruction that object equipment is carried out, determine the risk status information of described object equipment being carried out to described current operation;
S2, carry out Load flow calculation according to described risk status information, obtain the described object equipment nodes that voltage crosses the border under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development, branch road overload number, each voltage cross the border the voltage actual magnitude of node and the actual fed power of each overload branch road;
S3, carry out topology calculate according to described risk status information, obtain the load summate amount when reduction of fault generation afterload, current operation success;
S4, the probability of failure described object equipment being carried out to current operation added up according to Real Time Effect Summing Factor, obtain and carry out current operation successfully real-time probability and failed real-time probability to described object equipment;
The historical statistics probability broken down when S5, the historical statistics probability broken down when operation failure according to object equipment, object equipment are in successful operation and the described Real Time Effect factor, obtain the real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when operation failure, real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when successful operation;
S6, the nodes crossed the border according to described voltage and each voltage cross the border the voltage actual magnitude of node, the reduction of described fault generation afterload, the success of described current operation time load summate amount, described branch road overload number and the actual fed power of each overload branch road, described object equipment break down when operation failure real-time probability, described object equipment in successful operation time break down real-time probability, described current operation successfully probability and current operation failure in real time real-time probability, obtain the risk indicator of described object equipment being carried out to current operation;
Described risk indicator comprises: voltage cross border risk index, branch road overload risk indicator and load summate risk indicator;
Described S6 step is specially:
The nodes crossed the border according to described voltage under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development and each voltage cross the border the voltage actual magnitude of node, and the voltage obtained when carrying out current operation to described object equipment crosses the border consequence quantized value;
According to the actual fed power of described branch road overload number under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development and each overload branch road, obtain branch road overload consequence quantized value when as equipment current operation carries out to described object;
Load summate consequence quantized value when current operation carries out to described object equipment is obtained according to the load summate amount when reduction of described fault generation afterload, the success of described current operation;
Described voltage cross border risk index is obtained according to following formula;
R U = P s [ Σ i = 1 t g ( U i ) + Σ j = 1 k P s , j Σ i = 1 m g ( U i ) ] + P f Σ j = 1 n P f , j Σ i = 1 h g ( U i )
Described branch road overload risk indicator is obtained according to following formula;
R O = P f Σ j = 1 n P f , j Σ i = 1 q K ( S i ) ( S i - S r , i S r , i ) + P s [ Σ i = 1 z K ( S i ) ( S i - S r , i S r , i y Σ j = 1 k SP s , j Σ i = 1 x K ( S i ) ( S i - S r , i S r , i ) ]
Load summate risk indicator is obtained according to following formula;
R L = P s [ α 0 L 0 + Σ j = 1 k P s , j α j L j ] + P f Σ j = 1 n P f , j α j L j
Wherein, P sand P fbe respectively and current operation successfully real-time probability and failed real-time probability is carried out to described object equipment; P s,jand P f,jbe respectively real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when successful operation and the real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when operation failure; K and n is respectively described number object equipment being carried out to the risk status information of described current operation, the described object equipment historical statistics status information when operation failure;
L jfor the reduction of afterload occurs fault j; α jfor load L jimportant coefficient; L 0for load summate amount during described current operation success; α 0for load L 0important coefficient;
Q, z and x are respectively described object equipment branch road overload number under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development; S ifor the actual fed power of overload branch road i, S r,ifor the power delivery limits value of branch road i, K (S i) for carrying out current operation to described object as equipment time branch road overload consequence quantized value, work as S ibe greater than S r,itime, K (S i) value is 1; Work as S ibe less than or equal to S r,itime, K (S i) value is 0;
H, m and t are respectively the described object equipment nodes that voltage crosses the border under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development; U ifor node i voltage actual magnitude; G (U i) be node i voltage out-of-limit consequence quantized value;
S7, when described risk indicator is greater than or equal to predetermined numerical value, send warning;
Described step S7 is specially:
When described voltage cross border risk index is greater than or equal to the first predetermined numerical value, send warning; When described branch road overload risk indicator is greater than or equal to the second predetermined numerical value, send warning; When described load summate risk indicator is greater than or equal to the 3rd predetermined numerical value, send warning.
2. the risk checking method of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described risk status information comprises: carry out the risk status information of described current operation, the successful operation state of development information of described object equipment and the object equipment historical statistics status information when operation failure to described object equipment;
Described S1 step is specially:
When object equipment is in predetermined power flowcontrol section, exit the control section equipment in described predetermined power flowcontrol section one by one, obtain the successful operation state of development information of described object equipment; Wherein, described control section equipment is the control section equipment in described predetermined power flowcontrol section except described object equipment;
Simulated operation is carried out to described object equipment, obtains the successful operation status information of described object equipment; The historical statistics status information of described object equipment when operation failure is obtained according to historical statistical data.
3. the risk checking method of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets according to claim 2, is characterized in that, the described Real Time Effect factor comprises: the running status of the weather effect factor, the man's activity factor and equipment;
Described S4 step is specially:
Obtain according to following formula and current operation successfully real-time probability and failed probability is carried out to described object equipment;
P f=λτξ·P f0
P s=1.0-P f
Wherein, P sand P fbe respectively and current operation successfully real-time probability and failed real-time probability is carried out to described object equipment; P f0for historical statistics electric grid operating probability of failure; λ, τ, ξ represent running status three kinds of Real Time Effect factors of the weather effect factor, the man's activity factor and equipment respectively.
4. the risk checking method of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets according to claim 3, is characterized in that, described S5 step is specially:
The real-time probability broken down when obtaining the real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when operation failure, described object equipment in successful operation according to following formula;
P f,j=P f,j0;P s,j=λP s,j0
Wherein, P f,jand P f, j0be respectively real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when operation failure and the historical statistics probability that object equipment breaks down when operation failure; P s,jand P f, j0be respectively real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when successful operation and the historical statistics probability that object equipment breaks down when successful operation; λ represents the weather effect factor.
5. a risk supervision device for Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets, is characterized in that, comprising:
Risk status determining unit, for receiving the current operation instruction carried out object equipment, determines the risk status information of described object equipment being carried out to described current operation;
First computing unit, for carrying out Load flow calculation according to described risk status information, obtain the described object equipment nodes that voltage crosses the border under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development, the actual fed power of voltage actual magnitude that branch road overload number, each voltage cross the border node and each overload branch road;
Second computing unit, for carrying out topology calculate according to described risk status information, obtains the load summate amount when reduction of fault generation afterload, current operation success;
First acquiring unit, for the probability of failure described object equipment being carried out to current operation added up according to Real Time Effect Summing Factor, obtains and carries out current operation successfully real-time probability and failed real-time probability to described object equipment;
Second acquisition unit, for break down when operation failure according to object equipment historical statistics probability, object equipment in successful operation time the historical statistics probability that breaks down and the described Real Time Effect factor, obtain the real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when operation failure, real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when successful operation;
3rd acquiring unit, to cross the border for the nodes that crosses the border according to described voltage and each voltage the voltage actual magnitude of node, the reduction of described fault generation afterload, load summate amount during described current operation success, the actual fed power of described branch road overload number and each overload branch road, the real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when operation failure, the real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when successful operation, the real-time probability of described current operation successful probability and current operation failure in real time, obtain the risk indicator of described object equipment being carried out to current operation,
Described risk indicator comprises: voltage cross border risk index, branch road overload risk indicator and load summate risk indicator;
The nodes that described 3rd acquiring unit crosses the border according to described voltage under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development and each voltage cross the border the voltage actual magnitude of node, and the voltage obtained when carrying out current operation to described object equipment crosses the border consequence quantized value;
According to the actual fed power of described branch road overload number under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development and each overload branch road, obtain branch road overload consequence quantized value when as equipment current operation carries out to described object;
Load summate consequence quantized value when current operation carries out to described object equipment is obtained according to the load summate amount when reduction of described fault generation afterload, the success of described current operation;
Described voltage cross border risk index is obtained according to following formula;
R U = P s [ Σ i = 1 t g ( U i ) + Σ j = 1 k P s , j Σ i = 1 m g ( U i ) ] + P f Σ j = 1 n P f , j Σ i = 1 h g ( U i )
Described branch road overload risk indicator is obtained according to following formula;
R O = P f Σ j = 1 n P f , j Σ i = 1 q K ( S i ) ( S i - S r , i S r , i ) + P s [ Σ i = 1 z K ( S i ) ( S i - S r , i S r , i ) + Σ j = 1 k P s , j Σ i = 1 x K ( S i ) ( S i - S r , i S r , i ) ]
Load summate risk indicator is obtained according to following formula;
R L = P s [ α 0 L 0 + Σ j = 1 k P s , j α j L j ] + P f Σ j = 1 n P f , j α j L j
Wherein, P sand P fbe respectively and current operation successfully real-time probability and failed real-time probability is carried out to described object equipment; P s,jand P f,jbe respectively real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when successful operation and the real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when operation failure; K and n is respectively described number object equipment being carried out to the risk status information of described current operation, the described object equipment historical statistics status information when operation failure;
L jfor the reduction of afterload occurs fault j; α jfor load L jimportant coefficient; L 0for load summate amount during described current operation success; α 0for load L 0important coefficient;
Q, z and x are respectively described object equipment branch road overload number under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development; S ifor the actual fed power of overload branch road i, S r,ifor the power delivery limits value of branch road i, K (S i) for carrying out current operation to described object as equipment time branch road overload consequence quantized value, work as S ibe greater than S r,itime, K (S i) value is 1; Work as S ibe less than or equal to S r,itime, K (S i) value is 0;
H, m and t are respectively the described object equipment nodes that voltage crosses the border under operation failure state, successful operation state and successful operation state of development; U ifor node i voltage actual magnitude; G (U i) be node i voltage out-of-limit consequence quantized value;
Alarm unit, for when described risk indicator is greater than or equal to predetermined numerical value, sends warning;
Described alarm unit, when described voltage cross border risk index is greater than or equal to the first predetermined numerical value, sends warning; When described branch road overload risk indicator is greater than or equal to the second predetermined numerical value, send warning; When described load summate risk indicator is greater than or equal to the 3rd predetermined numerical value, send warning.
6. the risk supervision device of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets according to claim 5, it is characterized in that, described risk status information comprises: carry out the risk status information of described current operation, the successful operation state of development information of described object equipment and the object equipment historical statistics status information when operation failure to described object equipment;
Described risk status determining unit receives the current operation carried out object equipment, when object equipment is in predetermined power flowcontrol section, exit the control section equipment in described predetermined power flowcontrol section one by one, obtain the successful operation state of development information of described object equipment; Wherein, described control section equipment is the control section equipment in described predetermined power flowcontrol section except described object equipment;
Simulated operation is carried out to described object equipment, obtains the successful operation status information of described object equipment; The historical statistics status information of described object equipment when operation failure is obtained according to historical statistical data.
7. the risk supervision device of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets according to claim 6, is characterized in that, the described Real Time Effect factor comprises: the running status of the weather effect factor, the man's activity factor and equipment;
Described first acquiring unit obtains according to following formula and carries out current operation successfully real-time probability and failed probability to described object equipment;
P f=λτξ·P f0
P s=1.0-P f
Wherein, P sand P fbe respectively and current operation successfully real-time probability and failed real-time probability is carried out to described object equipment; P f0for historical statistics electric grid operating probability of failure; λ, τ, ξ represent running status three kinds of Real Time Effect factors of the weather effect factor, the man's activity factor and equipment respectively.
8. the risk supervision device of Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets according to claim 7, it is characterized in that, the real-time probability broken down when described second acquisition unit obtains the real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when operation failure, described object equipment in successful operation according to following formula;
P f,j=P f,j0;P s,j=λP s,j0
Wherein, P f,jand P f, j0be respectively real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when operation failure and the historical statistics probability that object equipment breaks down when operation failure; P s,jand P f, j0be respectively real-time probability that described object equipment breaks down when successful operation and the historical statistics probability that object equipment breaks down when successful operation; λ represents the weather effect factor.
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CN103903196B (en) * 2014-04-24 2016-05-11 中国南方电网有限责任公司 A kind of dispatching of power netwoks of considering ageing equipment factor moves real-time methods of risk assessment
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