CN103218754A - Risk test method and risk test device for power gird dispatching operation - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention provides a risk test method for power gird dispatching operation. The risk test method for the power gird dispatching operation comprises the steps: receiving a current operation command conducted to target equipment and confirming risk state information; obtaining the number of nodes which are beyond a voltage boundary, overload number of branches, actual voltage amplitude value of each node which is beyond the voltage boundary and actual transmitting power of each overload branch under the states of failed operation, successful operation and successful operation development; obtaining load reduction quantity after failure and load reduction quantity under successful operation; obtaining real-time probabilities when operation succeeds and fails; obtaining real-time probability of failure after operation fails and real-time failure probability of the target equipment when operation succeeds; obtaining a risk indicator of the current operation; and sending an alarm out when the risk indicator is larger than or equal to a preset value. The invention further provides a risk test device for the power gird dispatching operation. The risk test device for the power gird dispatching operation is capable of pre-testing security status of a power gird caused by the power gird dispatching operation and guaranteeing the safe operation of an electrical power system.

Description

Risk detection method and device for power grid dispatching operation

Technical Field

The invention relates to the field of power grid dispatching control, in particular to a risk detection method and device for power grid dispatching operation.

Background

In order to ensure safe, economical and reliable operation of the power grid, a dispatcher must take reasonable dispatching operation. At present, a dispatcher mainly operates a power grid according to real-time operation data and personal experience of the power grid. A set of relatively complete operation flow and control method is provided from planning to final execution of the scheduling operation instruction ticket, and the safety of power scheduling is guaranteed to a great extent. However, in consideration of uncertain factors such as bad weather, equipment failure, misoperation and the like in the operation execution process, scheduling operation may not be normally executed, and the safe and stable operation of the system is affected.

At present, the research on the scheduling operation mainly focuses on deterministic safety load correction, and misoperation is prevented by monitoring each link of the scheduling operation; there is no technique that can detect the risk that the scheduling operation brings to the system.

Disclosure of Invention

The invention aims to provide a real-time risk detection method and a real-time risk detection device for power grid dispatching operation, which can detect the safety condition of a power grid possibly caused by the execution of the power grid dispatching operation in advance; and the safe operation of the power system is ensured.

The adopted scheme is as follows:

s1, receiving a current operation instruction for a target device, and determining risk state information of the current operation for the target device;

s2, carrying out load flow calculation according to the risk state information, and acquiring the number of voltage out-of-range nodes, the number of branch overload nodes, the actual voltage amplitude of each voltage out-of-range node and the actual transmission power of each overload branch of the target equipment in an operation failure state, an operation success state and an operation success development state;

s3, performing topology calculation according to the risk state information to obtain the load reduction amount after the fault occurs and the load reduction amount when the current operation is successful;

s4, obtaining the real-time probability of success and failure of the current operation of the target equipment according to the real-time influence factor and the statistical failure probability of the current operation of the target equipment;

s5, obtaining the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation fails and the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation succeeds according to the historical statistical probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation fails, the historical statistical probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation succeeds and the real-time influence factor;

s6, acquiring a risk index of current operation of the target equipment according to the number of voltage out-of-range nodes, the actual voltage amplitude of each voltage out-of-range node, the reduction of the load after the fault occurs, the reduction of the load when the current operation is successful, the overload number of the branch circuits, the actual transmission power of each overload branch circuit, the real-time probability of the fault when the target equipment fails to operate, the real-time probability of the fault when the target equipment succeeds to operate, the real-time probability of the current operation success and the real-time probability of the current operation failure;

and S7, when the risk index is larger than or equal to a preset value, giving an alarm.

And, a risk detection device of a power grid dispatching operation, comprising:

a risk state determining unit, configured to receive a current operation instruction performed on a target device, and determine risk state information for performing the current operation on the target device;

the first calculating unit is used for carrying out load flow calculation according to the risk state information and acquiring the number of voltage out-of-range nodes, the number of branch overload nodes, the actual voltage amplitude of each voltage out-of-range node and the actual transmission power of each overload branch of the target equipment in an operation failure state, an operation success state and an operation success development state;

the second calculation unit is used for carrying out topology calculation according to the risk state information and acquiring the load reduction amount after the fault occurs and the load reduction amount when the current operation is successful;

the first obtaining unit is used for obtaining the real-time probability of success and failure of the current operation of the target equipment according to the real-time influence factor and the counted failure probability of the current operation of the target equipment;

the second obtaining unit is used for obtaining the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation fails and the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation succeeds according to the historical statistical probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation fails, the historical statistical probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation succeeds and the real-time influence factor;

a third obtaining unit, configured to obtain a risk indicator of performing current operation on the destination device according to the number of voltage out-of-range nodes, the actual voltage amplitude of each voltage out-of-range node, the reduction amount of the load after the fault occurs, the reduction amount of the load when the current operation is successful, the number of overload branches, the actual transmission power of each overload branch, the real-time probability of the fault occurring when the operation of the destination device fails, the real-time probability of the fault occurring when the operation of the destination device succeeds, the real-time probability of the current operation success, and the real-time probability of the current operation failure;

and the alarm unit is used for giving an alarm when the risk index is greater than or equal to a preset numerical value.

The method starts from two directions of success and failure of scheduling operation, detects the possible power grid safety influence on the current operation of the target equipment in advance, receives the current operation instruction of the target equipment, and determines the possible risk state information; determining the success and failure real-time probability of the current operation according to the real-time influence factor when the actual scheduling operation is carried out and the historical statistical probability of success and failure of the current operation of the target equipment; determining the probability of the failure after the success and failure of the current operation according to the historical statistics of the probability of the failure after the success and failure of the current operation of the target equipment; carrying out topology calculation and load flow calculation on the risk state information to obtain a corresponding result; acquiring a risk index of the operation according to the real-time probability of success and failure of the operation, the probability of failure after the operation is successful and failed, a topology calculation result and a load flow calculation result; when the risk index is larger than or equal to the threshold value, an alarm is sent out; thereby detecting the safety condition of the power grid possibly caused by the execution of the power grid dispatching operation in advance; and the safe operation of the power system is ensured.

Drawings

FIG. 1 is a flow chart of an embodiment of the method of the present invention;

FIG. 2 is a diagram of the voltage threshold crossing effect quantization function of the present invention;

FIG. 3 is a graph of a function of the degree of deviation of a biological clock of a human being in relation to an artifact;

FIG. 4 is a single electrical schematic of the system of one embodiment of the present invention;

FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram of the structure of the device of the present invention.

Detailed Description

The invention provides a risk detection method for power grid dispatching operation, which is implemented by a flow chart shown in figure 1 and comprises the following steps:

s1, receiving a current operation instruction of the target equipment, and determining risk state information of the current operation of the target equipment;

wherein the risk status information comprises: risk state information of current operation of the target equipment, operation success development state information of the target equipment and historical statistical state information of the target equipment when the operation fails;

the risk of scheduling operations on the grid comes mainly from three aspects: first, the risk of operating failure due to a failure of the component itself is: historical statistical state information of target equipment when operation fails, for example, in the process of switching off a switch, a bus connected with the switch is grounded due to switch explosion; secondly, the risk of the system itself after the scheduling operation is successful is: information on the risk status of the current operation of the destination device, for example, after the switch is closed, some lines may be overloaded; thirdly, after the scheduling operation is successful, the reliability of the system is reduced, and a risk of developing a fault may occur, that is: the operation of the target equipment is successful in developing state information, such as a double-bus connection substation, if one bus is changed from operation to maintenance, all equipment of the whole substation is powered off if the other bus fails.

To better understand the three risk status information, the following further description is provided:

1. the historical statistical state information of the destination equipment in the failure of operation is a set which can be marked as S_f

Suppose a certain scheduling operation is on element e_iSet of component failures C (e) that occurred, leading to failure of this operation_i) As shown in the formula (1),

$C\left(e_i\right)=\{C_{e_i}^1,C_{e_i}^2,...,C_{e_i}^n\}---\left(1\right)$

wherein,

for the nth possible resulting element e_iFailure of a component that fails operation;

collectionC(e_i) Failure of n elements results in element e_iThe set of system states after an operation failure is defined as element e_iSet of operation failure states S_f(e_i)，

$S_f\left(e_i\right)=\{S\left(C_{e_i}^1\right),S\left(C_{e_i}^2\right),...,S\left(C_{e_i}^n\right)---\left(2\right)$

Wherein,

for the nth element failure

Result in element e_iSystem status after operation failure;

2. the operation success development status information of the destination device is a set and can be recorded as S_d

Defining a fault F andelement e_iThe degree of association is as follows:

$\mathrm{Con}(e_i,F)=\left\{\begin{array}{c}1\\ 0\end{array}\right.---\left(3\right)$

wherein, Con (e)_iF) =1 denotes a pair of elements e_iAfter successful operation, the fault F can cause important consequences to the system, and the numerical value can be determined according to the consequences of the fault F;

suppose xi (F) represents the effect on the system after the fault F occurs, xi₀Representing a set consequence cutoff value, d (± e)_i) Represents a pair of elements e_iOperation was successful and Con (e) was determined as a logical relationship_iF) value:

for failure F, if xi (F)>ξ₀With and with only one precondition d (± e)_i) Then Con (e)_iF) =1, otherwise Con (e)_i,F)=0；

All and element e_iThe fault with the degree of association of 1 constitutes element e_iDeveloping failure set F (e) after successful operation_i)，

$F\left(e_i\right)=\{F_{e_i}^1,F_{e_i}^2,...,F_{e_i}^k\}---\left(4\right)$

Wherein each fault

Referred to as element e_iA developing fault after successful operation, element e_iDeveloping state set S after operation is successful_d(e_i) As shown in the formula (5),

$S_d\left(e_i\right)=\{S\left(F_{e_i}^1\right),S\left(F_{e_i}^2\right),...,S\left(F_{e_i}^n\right)---\left(5\right)$

wherein,develop fault for kth

The system state after occurrence;

3. the risk status information of the current operation of the destination device can be recorded as S_n

Suppose a scheduling operation is for element e_iProceed to element e_iThe system state after successful operation is the operation success state S_n(e_i)。

In one embodiment, the step S1 is specifically:

receiving a current operation instruction for target equipment;

when the target equipment is in the preset power flow control section, quitting the control section equipment in the preset power flow control section one by one to obtain the operation success development state information of the target equipment; the control section equipment is control section equipment in a preset power flow control section except the target equipment;

performing simulation operation on the target equipment to obtain operation success state information of the target equipment; and acquiring historical statistical state information of the target equipment when the operation fails according to the historical statistical data.

S2, acquiring the number of voltage out-of-range nodes, the number of branch overload nodes, the actual voltage amplitude of each voltage out-of-range node and the actual transmission power of each overload branch of the target equipment in the operation failure state, the operation success state and the operation success development state according to the risk state information;

specifically, the method comprises the following steps: and carrying out load flow calculation according to the risk state information to obtain the number of voltage out-of-range nodes, the number of branch overload nodes, the actual voltage amplitude of each voltage out-of-range node and the actual transmission power of each overload branch of the target equipment in the operation failure state, the operation success state and the operation success development state.

As one embodiment, the step may be: and carrying out node connectivity analysis on the selected scheduling operation risk state, wherein each bus in the system state is a node, and each line and the main transformer are connecting lines between the nodes. The node connectivity analysis is to analyze the connection lines between each node and all other nodes, and if there is no connection line between a node and all other nodes, the load connected to the bus corresponding to the node is cut off.

The load flow calculation based on the risk status information is a technical means known to those skilled in the art, and therefore, will not be described in detail.

S3, acquiring the load reduction amount after the fault occurs and the load reduction amount when the current operation is successful according to the risk state information;

specifically, the method comprises the following steps: and performing topology calculation according to the risk state information to obtain the load reduction amount after the fault occurs and the load reduction amount when the current operation is successful.

Performing topology calculations based on risk status information is a technique known to those skilled in the art, and therefore will not be described in detail.

S4, obtaining the real-time probability of success and failure of the current operation of the target equipment according to the real-time influence factor and the counted failure probability of the current operation of the target equipment;

s5, acquiring the real-time probability of failure of the target equipment when the operation fails and the real-time probability of failure of the target equipment when the operation succeeds;

specifically, the method comprises the following steps:

and obtaining the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation fails and the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation succeeds according to the historical statistical probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation fails, the historical statistical probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation succeeds and the real-time influence factor.

S6, acquiring a risk index of the current operation of the target equipment according to the data in the steps S2, S3, S4 and S5;

specifically, the method comprises the following steps:

and acquiring a risk index for performing current operation on the target equipment according to the number of voltage out-of-range nodes, the actual voltage amplitude of each voltage out-of-range node, the reduction amount of the load after the fault occurs, the reduction amount of the load when the current operation is successful, the overload number of the branches, the actual transmission power of each overload branch, the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation is failed, the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation is successful, the real-time probability of the current operation success and the real-time probability of the current operation failure.

And S7, when the risk index is larger than or equal to the preset value, giving an alarm.

The method starts from two directions of success and failure of scheduling operation, detects the possible power grid safety influence on the current operation of the target equipment in advance, receives the current operation instruction of the target equipment, and determines the possible risk state information; determining the success and failure real-time probability of the current operation according to the real-time influence factor when the actual scheduling operation is carried out and the historical statistical probability of success and failure of the current operation of the target equipment; determining the probability of the failure after the success and failure of the current operation according to the historical statistics of the probability of the failure after the success and failure of the current operation of the target equipment; carrying out topology calculation and load flow calculation on the risk state information to obtain a corresponding result; acquiring a risk index of the operation according to the real-time probability of success and failure of the operation, the probability of failure after the operation is successful and failed, a topology calculation result and a load flow calculation result; when the risk index is larger than or equal to the threshold value, an alarm is sent out; thereby detecting the safety condition of the power grid possibly caused by the execution of the power grid dispatching operation in advance; and the safe operation of the power system is ensured.

In the above embodiment, the steps S2, S3, S4 and S5 are not limited to the above-described order, that is, the steps S2, S3, S4 and S5 may be performed simultaneously, in a certain order, or any one of them may be performed first.

In the above embodiment, the real-time impact factors include: weather influence factors, artificial influence factors and the running state of equipment;

for ease of understanding, the real-time impact factors are further described below:

weather influence factor lambda

The method mainly considers the influence of different weather conditions on the scheduling operation, the values of the influence are shown in the following table 1, and weather information is automatically collected from weather forecast and weather influence factors are calculated according to the execution area and the starting time of the scheduling operation;

TABLE 1 weather Effect factor values

Firstly, typhoon wind: taking 1-1.2 parts of yellow early warning, 1.2-1.5 parts of orange early warning and 1.5-2 parts of red early warning;

rain and strong wind: taking 1-1.2 parts of yellow early warning, 1.2-1.5 parts of orange early warning and 1.5-2 parts of red early warning;

third, forest fire danger: 1-1.2 orange early warning and 1-1.5 red early warning;

fourthly, high temperature: 1.1 is taken as an orange early warning, and 1.2 is taken as a red early warning;

fog: 1.1 is taken as an orange early warning, and 1.2 is taken as a red early warning;

sixthly, freezing: taking values according to weather conditions and line icing conditions;

artificial influence factor tau

Considering that the fatigue degree of the dispatcher can affect the operation, the artificial influence factor is mainly related to the operation density which is executed by the dispatcher and the human body biological clock deviation degree, and the calculation formula is as follows:

τ=τ₁τ₂

wherein, τ 1 is a human biological clock deviation coefficient which mainly reflects the deviation degree of the working time of the dispatcher and the normal human biological clock; the value can be obtained according to fig. 3, τ 2 is the density of operations performed by the scheduling staff, and the number of instructions issued by the scheduling staff within 30min before the instructions are issued is calculated according to the statistics of the system instructions, and the formula is as follows:

${\mathrm{\τ}}_2=e^{\frac{x_t}{30}}$

wherein xt is the number of dispatching commands issued by the dispatching personnel within 30min before the commands are issued, which is counted from the system commands.

Operating state xi of the apparatus

Reflecting the influence of the running state of the equipment on the operation before the operation is executed, and the calculation formula is as follows:

ξ=e^ΔV

wherein, Δ V is the overvoltage degree of the equipment, and the calculation formula is as follows:

$\mathrm{\ΔV}=\left\{\begin{array}{cc}0& V_x\≤V_N\\ \frac{V_x-V_N}{V_N}& V_x>V_N\end{array}\right.$

VN is the rated voltage of the equipment, and Vx is the current working voltage of the equipment.

The step of S4 is specifically:

acquiring the success real-time probability and failure probability of the current operation of the target equipment according to the following formulas;

P_f=λτξ·P_f0

P_s=1.0-P_f

wherein, P_sAnd P_fRespectively representing the real-time probability of success and the real-time probability of failure of the current operation on the target equipment; p_f0Counting the operation failure probability of the power grid for history; lambda, tau and xi respectively represent three real-time influence factors of a weather influence factor, an artificial influence factor and the running state of equipment.

In one embodiment, the step S5 specifically includes:

acquiring the real-time probability of failure of the target equipment when the operation fails and the real-time probability of failure of the target equipment when the operation succeeds according to the following formula;

P_f，j=P_f，j0;P_s，j=λP_s，j0

wherein, P_f,jAnd P_f，j0Respectively calculating the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation fails and the historical statistical probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation fails; p_s，jAnd P_f，j0Respectively the real-time probability of the failure of the target equipment when the operation is successful and the historical statistical probability of the failure of the target equipment when the operation is successful, wherein lambda represents a weather influence factor.

In the risk evaluation indexes of the power grid, the following three indexes are generally included: voltage out-of-range risk indicator, branch overload risk indicator and load reduction risk indicator.

In one embodiment, the step S6 specifically includes:

obtaining a voltage out-of-range consequence quantized value when the target equipment is currently operated according to the number of voltage out-of-range nodes and the actual voltage amplitude of each voltage out-of-range node in the operation failure state, the operation success state and the operation success development state;

obtaining a branch overload consequence quantization value when the target equipment is currently operated according to the branch overload numbers and the actual transmission power of each overload branch in the operation failure state, the operation success state and the operation success development state;

obtaining a load reduction consequence quantized value when the target equipment is operated at present according to the load reduction amount after the fault occurs and the load reduction amount when the current operation is successful;

acquiring a voltage out-of-range risk index according to the following formula;

$R_U=P_s[\underset{i=1}{\overset{t}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}g\left(U_i\right)+\underset{j=1}{\overset{k}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{s,j}\underset{i=1}{\overset{m}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}g\left(U_i\right)]+P_f\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{f,j}\underset{i=1}{\overset{h}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}g\left(U_i\right)$

acquiring a branch overload risk index according to the following formula;

$R_O=P_f\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{f,j}\underset{i=1}{\overset{q}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}K\left(S_i\right)\left(\frac{S_i-S_{r,i}}{S_{r,i}}\right)+P_s[\underset{i=1}{\overset{z}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}K\left(S_i\right)\left(\frac{S_i-S_{r,i}}{S_{r,i}}\right)+\underset{j=1}{\overset{k}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{s,j}\underset{i=1}{\overset{x}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}K\left(S_i\right)\left(\frac{S_i-S_{r,i}}{S_{r,i}}\right)]$

acquiring a load reduction risk index according to the following formula;

$R_L=P_s[{\mathrm{\α}}_0{L}_0+\underset{j=1}{\overset{k}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{s,j}{\mathrm{\α}}_j{L}_j]+P_f\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{f,j}{\mathrm{\α}}_j{L}_j$

wherein, P_sAnd P_fRespectively representing the real-time probability of success and the real-time probability of failure of the current operation on the target equipment; p_s，jAnd P_f，jRespectively indicating the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation is successful and the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation is failed; k and n are risk state information of current operation on the target equipment and the number of historical statistical state information of the target equipment when the operation fails respectively;

L_jthe load reduction after the fault j occurs; alpha is alpha_jIs a load L_jThe importance coefficient of; l is₀Load reduction when the current operation is successful; alpha is alpha₀Is a load L₀The importance coefficient of;

q, z and x are the number of the overload of the branch of the target equipment in the operation failure state, the operation success state and the operation success development state respectively; s_iFor the actual transmission power of the overload branch i, S_r，iFor the power delivery limit of branch i, K (S)_i) Quantification of the consequences of a branch overload for the current operation of the target plant, when S_iGreater than S_r，iWhen, K (S)_i) The value is 1; when S is_iLess than or equal to S_r，iWhen, K (S)_i) The value is 0;

h. m and t are the number of nodes of which the voltage is out of range under the operation failure state, the operation success state and the operation success development state of the target equipment respectively; u shape_iThe actual amplitude of the voltage of the node i is obtained; g (U)_i) Quantizing the result of the out-of-limit result of the voltage of the node i;

wherein, according to FIG. 2, g (U)_i) According to U_i、U_1i、U_uiIs determined by the relationship of (1), U_1i、U_uiRespectively, the lower and upper voltage limits that node i can accept.

In the power grid operation risk indexes, three indexes, namely a voltage out-of-range risk index, a branch overload risk index and a load reduction risk index, all need to meet certain conditions, and in order to facilitate different conditions of the three indexes, a judgment mechanism needs to be made respectively, then step S7 specifically includes:

when the voltage out-of-range risk index is larger than or equal to a first preset value, an alarm is given; when the branch overload risk index is greater than or equal to a second preset numerical value, an alarm is sent out; and when the load reduction risk index is greater than or equal to a third preset numerical value, giving an alarm.

The three alarms generally issue different alarms according to categories so as to remind relevant operators to take countermeasures.

For a better understanding of the present invention, a specific example is described below; referring to fig. 4, a single diagram of the ieee rts test system;

according to the illustration of FIG. 4, assuming for some reason that the line Bus15-Bus24 needs to be switched from running to cold standby operation, assuming the weather conditions are good when the operation is performed, the night shift 18:00 is performed, and the present dispatcher has issued 3 dispatch instructions in the last 30 minutes before the operation is performed. Setting: the alarm threshold of the voltage out-of-limit risk index is 4; the alarm threshold of the tidal current out-of-limit risk index is 2; the alarm threshold of the load reduction risk index is 0.2; it should be noted that, when the operations in different steps are performed, the alarm thresholds of the same index may be different, and for convenience of description, the threshold values for the same index are set to be the same.

And receiving operation instructions for the destination equipment, wherein the instructions are shown in the table 2. The operation risk detection is carried out on the operation by applying the method, so that the risk index of each step of the operation can be obtained, as shown in a table 3;

TABLE 2 details of the procedure (Single phase order)

TABLE 3 Risk indices for each step of the operation

As can be seen from table 3, when the first step, the second step, the fourth step, and the sixth step are performed, since the voltage out-of-limit risk indicator is greater than the alarm threshold 4, an alarm is issued; and reminding a dispatcher that voltage pre-control measures should be set in advance when the operation is executed.

When the first step, the second step, the fourth step and the sixth step are carried out, an alarm is sent out because the tributary overload risk indexes are all larger than the alarm threshold value 2; and reminding a dispatcher that branch overload pre-control measures should be made in advance when the operation is executed.

When the first step and the fourth step are carried out, an alarm is given out because the load reduction risk indexes are both greater than the alarm threshold value of 0.2; and reminding a dispatcher that a load reduction pre-control measure should be made in advance when the operation is executed.

The present invention further provides a risk detection apparatus for power grid dispatching operation, the schematic structural diagram of which refers to fig. 5, including:

the risk state determining unit is used for receiving a current operation instruction for the target equipment and determining risk state information for performing current operation on the target equipment;

the first calculating unit is used for carrying out load flow calculation according to the risk state information and acquiring the number of voltage out-of-range nodes, the number of branch overload nodes, the actual voltage amplitude of each voltage out-of-range node and the actual transmission power of each overload branch of the target equipment in an operation failure state, an operation success state and an operation success development state;

the second calculation unit is used for carrying out topology calculation according to the risk state information and acquiring the load reduction amount after the fault occurs and the load reduction amount when the current operation is successful;

the first obtaining unit is used for obtaining the real-time probability of success and failure of the current operation of the target equipment according to the real-time influence factor and the counted failure probability of the current operation of the target equipment;

the second acquisition unit is used for acquiring the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation fails and the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation succeeds according to the historical statistical probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation fails, the historical statistical probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation succeeds and the real-time influence factor;

a third obtaining unit, configured to obtain a risk indicator of performing current operation on a target device according to the number of voltage out-of-range nodes, the actual voltage amplitude of each voltage out-of-range node, the reduction amount of a load after a fault occurs, the reduction amount of a load when current operation is successful, the number of branch overload, the actual transmission power of each overload branch, the real-time probability of a fault occurring when operation of the target device fails, the real-time probability of a fault occurring when operation of the target device succeeds, the real-time probability of current operation success, and the real-time probability of current operation failure;

and the alarm unit is used for giving an alarm when the risk index is greater than or equal to a preset numerical value.

The method starts from two directions of success and failure of scheduling operation, detects the possible power grid safety influence on the current operation of the target equipment in advance, receives the current operation instruction of the target equipment, and determines the possible risk state information; determining the success and failure real-time probability of the current operation according to the real-time influence factor when the actual scheduling operation is carried out and the historical statistical probability of success and failure of the current operation of the target equipment; determining the probability of the failure after the success and failure of the current operation according to the historical statistics of the probability of the failure after the success and failure of the current operation of the target equipment; carrying out topology calculation and load flow calculation on the risk state information to obtain a corresponding result; acquiring a risk index of the operation according to the real-time probability of success and failure of the operation, the probability of failure after the operation is successful and failed, a topology calculation result and a load flow calculation result; when the risk index is larger than or equal to the threshold value, an alarm is sent out; thereby detecting the safety condition of the power grid possibly caused by the execution of the power grid dispatching operation in advance; and the safe operation of the power system is ensured.

Wherein the risk status information comprises: risk state information of current operation of the target equipment, operation success development state information of the target equipment and historical statistical state information of the target equipment when the operation fails;

the risk state determining unit receives current operation on the target equipment, and when the target equipment is in a preset power flow control section, the control section equipment in the preset power flow control section is quitted one by one to obtain operation success development state information of the target equipment; the control section equipment is control section equipment in a preset power flow control section except the target equipment;

performing simulation operation on the target equipment to obtain operation success state information of the target equipment; and acquiring historical statistical state information of the target equipment when the operation fails according to the historical statistical data.

In one embodiment, the real-time impact factors include: weather influence factors, artificial influence factors and the running state of equipment;

the first obtaining unit obtains the real-time probability and the failure probability of the current operation of the target equipment according to the following formula;

P_f=λτξ·P_f0

P_s=1.0-P_f

wherein, P_sAnd P_fRespectively representing the real-time probability of success and the real-time probability of failure of the current operation on the target equipment; p_f0Counting the operation failure probability of the power grid for history; lambda, tau and xi respectively represent three real-time influence factors of a weather influence factor, an artificial influence factor and the running state of equipment.

In one embodiment, the second obtaining unit obtains the real-time probability of the failure of the destination device when the operation fails and the real-time probability of the failure of the destination device when the operation succeeds according to the following formula;

P_f，j=P_f，j0;P_s，j＝λP_s，j0。

wherein，P_f，jAnd P_f，j0Respectively calculating the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation fails and the historical statistical probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation fails; p_s，jAnd P_f,j0Respectively the real-time probability of the failure of the target equipment when the operation is successful and the historical statistical probability of the failure of the target equipment when the operation is successful, wherein lambda represents a weather influence factor.

In one embodiment, the risk indicators include: voltage out-of-range risk index, branch overload risk index and load reduction risk index;

the third acquisition unit acquires a voltage out-of-range consequence quantized value when the target equipment is currently operated according to the number of voltage out-of-range nodes and the actual voltage amplitude of each voltage out-of-range node in the operation failure state, the operation success state and the operation success development state;

obtaining a branch overload consequence quantization value when the target equipment is currently operated according to the branch overload numbers and the actual transmission power of each overload branch in the operation failure state, the operation success state and the operation success development state;

obtaining a load reduction consequence quantized value when the target equipment is operated at present according to the load reduction amount after the fault occurs and the load reduction amount when the current operation is successful;

acquiring a voltage out-of-range risk index according to the following formula;

$R_U=P_s[\underset{i=1}{\overset{t}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}g\left(U_i\right)+\underset{j=1}{\overset{k}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{s,j}\underset{i=1}{\overset{m}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}g\left(U_i\right)]+P_f\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{f,j}\underset{i=1}{\overset{h}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}g\left(U_i\right)$

acquiring a branch overload risk index according to the following formula;

$R_O=P_f\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{f,j}\underset{i=1}{\overset{q}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}K\left(S_i\right)\left(\frac{S_i-S_{r,i}}{S_{r,i}}\right)+P_s[\underset{i=1}{\overset{z}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}K\left(S_i\right)\left(\frac{S_i-S_{r,i}}{S_{r,i}}\right)+\underset{j=1}{\overset{k}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{s,j}\underset{i=1}{\overset{x}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}K\left(S_i\right)\left(\frac{S_i-S_{r,i}}{S_{r,i}}\right)]$

acquiring a load reduction risk index according to the following formula;

$R_L=P_s[{\mathrm{\α}}_0{L}_0+\underset{j=1}{\overset{k}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{s,j}{\mathrm{\α}}_j{L}_j]+P_f\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{f,j}{\mathrm{\α}}_j{L}_j$

wherein, P_sAnd P_fRespectively representing the real-time probability of success and the real-time probability of failure of the current operation on the target equipment; p_s，jAnd P_f，jRespectively indicating the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation is successful and the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation is failed; k and n are risk state information of current operation on the target equipment and the number of historical statistical state information of the target equipment when the operation fails respectively;

L_jthe load reduction after the fault j occurs; alpha is alpha_jIs a load L_jThe importance coefficient of; l is₀Load reduction when the current operation is successful; alpha is alpha₀Is a load L₀The importance coefficient of;

q, z and x are the number of the overload of the branch of the target equipment in the operation failure state, the operation success state and the operation success development state respectively; s_iFor the actual transmission power of the overload branch i, S_r，iFor the power delivery limit of branch i, K (S)_i) Quantification of the consequences of a branch overload for the current operation of the target plant, when S_iGreater than S_r，iWhen, K (S)_i) The value is 1; when S is_iLess than or equal to S_r，iWhen, K (S)_i) The value is 0;

h. m and t are the number of nodes of which the voltage is out of range under the operation failure state, the operation success state and the operation success development state of the target equipment respectively; u shape_iThe actual amplitude of the voltage of the node i is obtained; g (U)_i) Quantizing the result of the out-of-limit result of the voltage of the node i;

the alarm unit gives an alarm when the voltage out-of-range risk index is greater than or equal to a first preset numerical value; when the branch overload risk index is greater than or equal to a second preset value, an alarm is sent out; and when the load reduction risk index is greater than or equal to a third preset numerical value, giving an alarm.

The above-mentioned embodiments only express several embodiments of the present invention, and the description thereof is more specific and detailed, but not construed as limiting the scope of the present invention. It should be noted that, for a person skilled in the art, several variations and modifications can be made without departing from the inventive concept, which falls within the scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present patent shall be subject to the appended claims.

Claims (10)

1. A risk detection method for power grid dispatching operation is characterized by comprising the following steps:

s1, receiving a current operation instruction for a target device, and determining risk state information of the current operation for the target device;

s2, carrying out load flow calculation according to the risk state information, and acquiring the number of voltage out-of-range nodes, the number of branch overload nodes, the actual voltage amplitude of each voltage out-of-range node and the actual transmission power of each overload branch of the target equipment in an operation failure state, an operation success state and an operation success development state;

s3, performing topology calculation according to the risk state information to obtain the load reduction amount after the fault occurs and the load reduction amount when the current operation is successful;

s4, obtaining the real-time probability of success and failure of the current operation of the target equipment according to the real-time influence factor and the statistical failure probability of the current operation of the target equipment;

s5, obtaining the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation fails and the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation succeeds according to the historical statistical probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation fails, the historical statistical probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation succeeds and the real-time influence factor;

s6, acquiring a risk index of current operation of the target equipment according to the number of voltage out-of-range nodes, the actual voltage amplitude of each voltage out-of-range node, the reduction of the load after the fault occurs, the reduction of the load when the current operation is successful, the overload number of the branch circuits, the actual transmission power of each overload branch circuit, the real-time probability of the fault when the target equipment fails to operate, the real-time probability of the fault when the target equipment succeeds to operate, the real-time probability of the current operation success and the real-time probability of the current operation failure;

and S7, when the risk index is larger than or equal to a preset value, giving an alarm.

2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the risk status information comprises: risk state information of the current operation of the target equipment, operation success development state information of the target equipment and historical statistical state information of the target equipment when the operation fails;

the step of S1 is specifically:

when the target equipment is in a preset power flow control section, quitting the control section equipment in the preset power flow control section one by one to obtain the operation success development state information of the target equipment; wherein the control section equipment is control section equipment in the preset power flow control section except the target equipment;

performing simulation operation on the target equipment to obtain operation success state information of the target equipment; and acquiring historical statistical state information of the target equipment when the operation fails according to the historical statistical data.

3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the real-time impact factors include: weather influence factors, artificial influence factors and the running state of equipment;

the step of S4 is specifically:

acquiring the success real-time probability and failure probability of the current operation of the target equipment according to the following formulas;

P_f=λτξ·P_f0

P_s=1.0-P_f

wherein, P_sAnd P_fRespectively representing the real-time probability of success and the real-time probability of failure of the current operation on the target equipment; p_f0Counting the operation failure probability of the power grid for history; lambda, tau and xi respectively represent three real-time influence factors of a weather influence factor, an artificial influence factor and the running state of equipment.

4. The risk detection method for power grid dispatching operation according to claim 3, wherein the step S5 specifically comprises:

acquiring the real-time probability of the failure of the target equipment when the operation fails and the real-time probability of the failure of the target equipment when the operation succeeds according to the following formula;

P_f,j=P_f,j0;P_s，?=λP_s,j0

wherein, P_f,jAnd P_f,j0Respectively representing the real-time probability of failure of the target equipment when the operation fails and the operation of the target equipmentMaking historical statistical probability of faults when the faults fail; p is a radical of_s,jAnd P_f,j0Respectively representing the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation is successful and the historical statistical probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation is successful, wherein lambda represents a weather influence factor.

5. The method according to claim 4, wherein the risk indicators include: voltage out-of-range risk index, branch overload risk index and load reduction risk index;

the step of S6 is specifically:

obtaining a voltage out-of-range consequence quantization value when the target equipment is currently operated according to the number of voltage out-of-range nodes in the operation failure state, the operation success state and the operation success development state and the actual voltage amplitude of each voltage out-of-range node;

obtaining a branch overload consequence quantization value when the target equipment is currently operated according to the branch overload numbers in the operation failure state, the operation success state and the operation success development state and the actual transmission power of each overload branch;

obtaining a load reduction consequence quantized value when the target equipment is operated at present according to the load reduction amount after the fault occurs and the load reduction amount when the current operation is successful;

acquiring the voltage out-of-range risk index according to the following formula;

$R_U=P_s[\underset{i=1}{\overset{t}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}g\left(U_i\right)+\underset{j=1}{\overset{k}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{s,j}\underset{i=1}{\overset{m}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}g\left(U_i\right)]+P_f\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{f,j}\underset{i=1}{\overset{h}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}g\left(U_i\right)$

acquiring the branch overload risk index according to the following formula;

$R_O=P_f\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{f,j}\underset{i=1}{\overset{q}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}K\left(S_i\right)\left(\frac{S_i-S_{r,i}}{S_{r,i}}\right)+P_s[\underset{i=1}{\overset{z}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}K\left(S_i\right)\left(\frac{S_i-S_{r,i}}{S_{r,i}}\right)+\underset{j=1}{\overset{k}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{s,j}\underset{i=1}{\overset{x}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}K\left(S_i\right)\left(\frac{S_i-S_{r,i}}{S_{r,i}}\right)]$

acquiring a load reduction risk index according to the following formula;

$R_L=P_s[{\mathrm{\α}}_0{L}_0+\underset{j=1}{\overset{k}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{s,j}{\mathrm{\α}}_j{L}_j]+P_f\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{f,j}{\mathrm{\α}}_j{L}_j$

wherein, P_sAnd P_fRespectively representing the real-time probability of success and the real-time probability of failure of the current operation on the target equipment; p_s,jAnd P_f,jRespectively representing the real-time probability of the target equipment failing when the operation is successful and the real-time probability of the target equipment failing when the operation is failed; k and n are respectively the risk state information of the current operation of the target equipment and the number of historical statistical state information of the target equipment when the operation fails;

L_jthe load reduction after the fault j occurs; alpha is alpha_jIs a load L_jThe importance coefficient of; l is₀Reducing the load when the current operation is successful; alpha is alpha₀Is a load L₀The importance coefficient of;

q, z and x are the number of the overload of the branch of the target equipment in the operation failure state, the operation success state and the operation success development state respectively; s_iFor the actual transmission power of the overload branch i, S_r,iFor the power delivery limit of branch i, K (S)_i) For the purpose of quantifying the consequences of an overload of a branch during the current operation of the device, when S_iGreater than S_r,iWhen, K (S)_i) The value is 1; when S is_iLess than or equal to S_r,iWhen, K (S)_i) The value is 0;

h. m and t are the number of nodes of the destination device with out-of-range voltage in the operation failure state, the operation success state and the operation success development state respectively; u shape_iThe actual amplitude of the voltage of the node i is obtained; g (U)_i) Quantizing the result of the out-of-limit result of the voltage of the node i;

the step S7 specifically includes:

when the voltage out-of-range risk index is larger than or equal to a first preset value, giving an alarm; when the branch overload risk index is larger than or equal to a second preset numerical value, an alarm is sent out; and when the load reduction risk index is larger than or equal to a third preset numerical value, giving an alarm.

6. A risk detection device of a power grid dispatching operation, comprising:

a risk state determining unit, configured to receive a current operation instruction performed on a target device, and determine risk state information for performing the current operation on the target device;

the first calculating unit is used for carrying out load flow calculation according to the risk state information and acquiring the number of voltage out-of-range nodes, the number of branch overload nodes, the actual voltage amplitude of each voltage out-of-range node and the actual transmission power of each overload branch of the target equipment in an operation failure state, an operation success state and an operation success development state;

the second calculation unit is used for carrying out topology calculation according to the risk state information and acquiring the load reduction amount after the fault occurs and the load reduction amount when the current operation is successful;

the first obtaining unit is used for obtaining the real-time probability of success and failure of the current operation of the target equipment according to the real-time influence factor and the counted failure probability of the current operation of the target equipment;

the second obtaining unit is used for obtaining the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation fails and the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation succeeds according to the historical statistical probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation fails, the historical statistical probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation succeeds and the real-time influence factor;

a third obtaining unit, configured to obtain a risk indicator of performing current operation on the destination device according to the number of voltage out-of-range nodes, the actual voltage amplitude of each voltage out-of-range node, the reduction amount of the load after the fault occurs, the reduction amount of the load when the current operation is successful, the number of overload branches, the actual transmission power of each overload branch, the real-time probability of the fault occurring when the operation of the destination device fails, the real-time probability of the fault occurring when the operation of the destination device succeeds, the real-time probability of the current operation success, and the real-time probability of the current operation failure;

and the alarm unit is used for giving an alarm when the risk index is greater than or equal to a preset numerical value.

7. The risk detection device of grid dispatching operation of claim 6, wherein the risk status information includes: risk state information of the current operation of the target equipment, operation success development state information of the target equipment and historical statistical state information of the target equipment when the operation fails;

the risk state determining unit receives current operation on target equipment, and when the target equipment is in a preset power flow control section, the control section equipment in the preset power flow control section is quitted one by one to obtain operation success development state information of the target equipment; wherein the control section equipment is control section equipment in the preset power flow control section except the target equipment;

performing simulation operation on the target equipment to obtain operation success state information of the target equipment; and acquiring historical statistical state information of the target equipment when the operation fails according to the historical statistical data.

8. The risk detection device of grid scheduling operations of claim 7, wherein the real-time impact factors include: weather influence factors, artificial influence factors and the running state of equipment;

the first obtaining unit obtains the real-time probability and the failure probability of the current operation of the target equipment according to the following formula;

P_f=λτξ·P_f0

P_s=1.0-P_f

wherein, P_sAnd P_fRespectively representing the real-time probability of success and the real-time probability of failure of the current operation on the target equipment; p_f0Counting the operation failure probability of the power grid for history; lambda, lambda,Tau and xi respectively represent three real-time influence factors of a weather influence factor, an artificial influence factor and the running state of equipment.

9. The risk detection device for power grid dispatching operation according to claim 8, wherein the second obtaining unit obtains the real-time probability of failure when the target device fails to operate and the real-time probability of failure when the target device succeeds to operate according to the following formula;

P_f,j=P_f,j0;P_s,j=λP_s,j0

wherein, P_f,jAnd P_f,j0Respectively calculating the real-time probability of the target equipment failing in operation and the historical statistical probability of the target equipment failing in operation; p_s,jAnd P_f,j0Respectively representing the real-time probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation is successful and the historical statistical probability of the fault of the target equipment when the operation is successful, wherein lambda represents a weather influence factor.

10. The risk detection device of grid scheduling operations of claim 9, wherein the risk indicators comprise: voltage out-of-range risk index, branch overload risk index and load reduction risk index;

the third obtaining unit obtains a voltage out-of-range consequence quantized value when the target equipment is currently operated according to the number of voltage out-of-range nodes in the operation failure state, the operation success state and the operation success development state and the actual voltage amplitude of each voltage out-of-range node;

obtaining a branch overload consequence quantization value when the target equipment is currently operated according to the branch overload numbers in the operation failure state, the operation success state and the operation success development state and the actual transmission power of each overload branch;

obtaining a load reduction consequence quantized value when the target equipment is operated at present according to the load reduction amount after the fault occurs and the load reduction amount when the current operation is successful;

acquiring the voltage out-of-range risk index according to the following formula;

$R_U=P_s[\underset{i=1}{\overset{t}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}g\left(U_i\right)+\underset{j=1}{\overset{k}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{s,j}\underset{i=1}{\overset{m}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}g\left(U_i\right)]+P_f\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{f,j}\underset{i=1}{\overset{h}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}g\left(U_i\right)$

acquiring the branch overload risk index according to the following formula;

$R_O=P_f\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{f,j}\underset{i=1}{\overset{q}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}K\left(S_i\right)\left(\frac{S_i-S_{r,i}}{S_{r,i}}\right)+P_s[\underset{i=1}{\overset{z}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}K\left(S_i\right)\left(\frac{S_i-S_{r,i}}{S_{r,i}}\right)+\underset{j=1}{\overset{k}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{s,j}\underset{i=1}{\overset{x}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}K\left(S_i\right)\left(\frac{S_i-S_{r,i}}{S_{r,i}}\right)]$

acquiring a load reduction risk index according to the following formula;

$R_L=P_s[{\mathrm{\α}}_0{L}_0+\underset{j=1}{\overset{k}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{s,j}{\mathrm{\α}}_j{L}_j]+P_f\underset{j=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{P}_{f,j}{\mathrm{\α}}_j{L}_j$

wherein, P_sAnd P_fRespectively representing the real-time probability of success and the real-time probability of failure of the current operation on the target equipment; p_s,jAnd P_f,jRespectively representing the real-time probability of the target equipment failing when the operation is successful and the real-time probability of the target equipment failing when the operation is failed; k and n are respectively the risk state information of the current operation of the target equipment and the number of historical statistical state information of the target equipment when the operation fails;

L_jthe load reduction after the fault j occurs; alpha is alpha_jIs a load L_jThe importance coefficient of; l is₀Reducing the load when the current operation is successful; alpha is alpha₀Is a load L₀The importance coefficient of;

q, z and x are the number of the overload of the branch of the target equipment in the operation failure state, the operation success state and the operation success development state respectively; s_iFor the actual transmission power of the overload branch i, S_r,iFor the power delivery limit of branch i, K (S)_i) For the purpose of quantifying the consequences of an overload of a branch during the current operation of the device, when S_iGreater than S_r,iWhen the temperature of the water is higher than the set temperature,K(S_i) The value is 1; when S is_iLess than or equal to S_r,iWhen, K (S)_i) The value is 0;

h. m and t are the number of nodes of the destination device with out-of-range voltage in the operation failure state, the operation success state and the operation success development state respectively; u shape_iThe actual amplitude of the voltage of the node i is obtained; g (U)_i) Quantizing the result of the out-of-limit result of the voltage of the node i;

the alarm unit gives an alarm when the voltage out-of-range risk index is greater than or equal to a first preset numerical value; when the branch overload risk index is larger than or equal to a second preset numerical value, an alarm is sent out; and when the load reduction risk index is greater than or equal to a third preset numerical value, giving an alarm.

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