CN111582702A - Power grid risk assessment method based on weather factors - Google Patents
Power grid risk assessment method based on weather factors Download PDFInfo
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- CN111582702A CN111582702A CN202010363639.1A CN202010363639A CN111582702A CN 111582702 A CN111582702 A CN 111582702A CN 202010363639 A CN202010363639 A CN 202010363639A CN 111582702 A CN111582702 A CN 111582702A
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- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/06—Electricity, gas or water supply
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
- Y02E40/00—Technologies for an efficient electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
- Y02E40/70—Smart grids as climate change mitigation technology in the energy generation sector
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y04—INFORMATION OR COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES HAVING AN IMPACT ON OTHER TECHNOLOGY AREAS
- Y04S—SYSTEMS INTEGRATING TECHNOLOGIES RELATED TO POWER NETWORK OPERATION, COMMUNICATION OR INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR IMPROVING THE ELECTRICAL POWER GENERATION, TRANSMISSION, DISTRIBUTION, MANAGEMENT OR USAGE, i.e. SMART GRIDS
- Y04S10/00—Systems supporting electrical power generation, transmission or distribution
- Y04S10/50—Systems or methods supporting the power network operation or management, involving a certain degree of interaction with the load-side end user applications
Abstract
The invention discloses a power grid risk assessment method based on weather factors, wherein an outcome value is the product of an outcome severity value and a social influence factor value; the probability value is the product of an equipment type factor value, a fault category factor value, a historical data statistical factor value, a weather influence factor value, an equipment defect influence factor value, an overhaul management factor value, an overhaul time factor value, a field construction influence factor value and a control measure factor value; and calculating the product of the consequence value and the probability value, recording the product as a risk value, comparing the risk value with a range value corresponding to the risk level, and judging the risk level corresponding to the risk value, namely finishing the power grid risk evaluation. The power grid risk assessment method is not only suitable for risk assessment of the power grid in the coastal region, but also meets the requirement of lean management of the power grid, and can provide more accurate risk prediction for the power grid in the coastal region so as to prevent risks in advance and reduce unnecessary loss.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of power grid risk assessment, and particularly relates to a power grid risk assessment method based on weather factors.
Background
At present, the power industry enters a new stage of a large power grid with high voltage, large unit, high automation and alternating current-direct current hybrid connection, a networking pattern is formed, the structure of the power grid is increasingly complex, the operation characteristics of the system are deeply changed, and the safe and stable operation of the power grid faces huge pressure. 30 days 7 months and 31 days 2012, large-scale power failure accidents happen successively in India, the influence population reaches 3.7 hundred million and 6.7 hundred million respectively, and the large-area power failure accidents of the power grid which affect the population most all the time in the world are formed. In China, along with the rapid development of social economy, the scale of the power grid in China is gradually enlarged, and how to ensure the safe and stable operation of the power grid and improve the driving capability of the large power grid becomes a major challenge for the operation control departments of all levels of power grids.
Grid risk refers to the uncertainty of grid operational safety, i.e., the combination of factors, the possibility of occurrence of an event or state, and the risk of occurrence of a condition that may affect grid operational safety.
The power grid risk assessment refers to a process of analyzing the occurrence probability of various risk factors and the influence degree on the power grid safety and power supply and determining the risk level on the basis of hazard identification.
Currently, southern power grid companies provide a risk assessment standard, but the risk assessment standard does not take into account weather factors such as typhoon attack, long high temperature time and the like which the coastal regions may suffer from, and therefore, the risk assessment standard cannot completely reflect the operation risk of the power grid in the coastal regions.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a power grid risk assessment method based on weather factors, which is used for increasing the weather factor to carry out risk assessment on a power grid and reflecting the operation risk of the power grid in a coastal region as much as possible.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a power grid risk assessment method based on weather factors comprises the following steps:
acquiring an outcome severity score according to the severity of the harm;
obtaining a social influence factor value according to the power supply protection degree;
calculating the product of the consequence severity score and the social influence factor value, and recording as an consequence value;
acquiring a device type factor value according to the device type;
acquiring a fault category factor value according to the fault category;
obtaining a historical data statistical factor value according to historical data statistics;
acquiring a weather influence factor value according to the weather type;
calculating the product of the equipment type factor value, the fault category factor value, the historical data statistical factor value and the weather influence factor value, and recording the product as a probability value;
calculating the product of the consequence value and the probability value, and recording the product as a risk value;
and comparing the risk value with a range value corresponding to the risk grade, and judging the risk grade corresponding to the risk value.
Optionally, the hazard severity includes a major accident hazard, a general accident hazard, a primary event hazard, a secondary event hazard, a tertiary event hazard, a quaternary event hazard, and a quinary event hazard, and the severity scores of the consequences respectively correspond to 4000-8000, 2000-2400, 400-600, 200-250, 100-150, 10-40, 1-5, 0, and 0;
the guarantee power supply degree comprises general time, special time guarantee power supply, secondary guarantee power supply, primary guarantee power supply and special guarantee power supply, and the social influence factor values are 1, 1.2, 1.4, 1.6 and 2 respectively;
the equipment types comprise a main transformer, a bus, a cable more than 100 meters, a cable less than or equal to 100 meters, an overhead line more than 100 meters, an overhead line less than or equal to 100 meters and a generator, and the factor values of the equipment types are respectively 0.6, 0.2, 0.4, 0.2, 1, 0.7 and 1.5;
the fault types comprise a first type fault, a second type fault and a third type fault, and the fault type factor values are 1, 0.2-0.6 and 0-0.2 respectively;
the historical data statistical factor value is equal to the average annual failure frequency of the similar equipment divided by the total number of the similar equipment and then 1;
the weather types comprise normal weather, typhoon, thunderstorm strong wind, forest fire danger, high temperature, heavy fog and icing, and the corresponding weather influence factor values are 1, 1-4, 1-2, 1-1.5, 1-1.2 and 1-1.5;
the risk grades comprise I-grade extra-large risk, II-grade major risk, III-grade larger risk, IV-grade general A-grade risk and V-grade general B-grade risk, and the corresponding risk value ranges are that the risk value is more than or equal to 1000, the risk value is more than or equal to 300 and less than 1000, the risk value is more than or equal to 60 and less than or equal to 300, the risk value is more than or equal to 20 and less than or equal to 5 and less than or equal to 20;
and when a regional power grid or a work simultaneously comprises the power grid operation risks with two or more risk levels, taking the highest risk level.
Optionally, the power grid risk assessment method based on weather factors further includes selecting the weather influence factor value according to the weather disaster early warning signal:
in typhoon weather, when the weather disaster early warning signals are yellow early warning, orange early warning and red early warning respectively, the weather influence factor values are 1-2, 2-3 and 3-4 respectively;
in thunderstorm and strong wind weather, when the weather disaster early warning signals are yellow early warning, orange early warning and red early warning respectively, the weather influence factor values are 1-1.2, 1.2-1.5 and 1.5-2 respectively;
in forest fire hazard weather, when the weather disaster early warning signals are orange early warning and red early warning respectively, the weather influence factor values are 1-1.2 and 1-1.5 respectively;
in high-temperature weather, when the weather disaster early warning signal is orange early warning and red early warning respectively, the weather influence factor value is 1.1 and 1.2 respectively;
and under the heavy fog weather, when the weather disaster early warning signal is orange early warning and red early warning respectively, the weather influence factor value is 1.1 and 1.2 respectively.
Optionally, the weather factor-based power grid risk assessment method further includes:
acquiring an equipment defect influence factor value according to the equipment defect state;
the probability value is the product of the equipment type factor value, the fault category factor value, the historical data statistical factor value, the weather influence factor value and the equipment defect influence factor value;
the device defect states include a normal state, an attention state, an abnormal state and a serious state, and the device defect influence factor values respectively correspond to 1, 1.2, 2 and 3.
Optionally, the weather factor-based power grid risk assessment method further includes:
acquiring a maintenance management factor value according to the maintenance type;
the probability value is the product of the equipment type factor value, the fault category factor value, the historical data statistical factor value, the weather influence factor value, the equipment defect influence factor value and the overhaul management factor value;
the overhaul types comprise planned overhaul, unplanned overhaul and accident first-aid repair, and the overhaul management factor values respectively correspond to 1, 1.5 and 2.
Optionally, the weather factor-based power grid risk assessment method further includes:
acquiring a maintenance time factor value according to the maintenance time range;
the probability value is the product of the equipment type factor value, the fault category factor value, the historical data statistical factor value, the weather influence factor value, the equipment defect influence factor value, the overhaul management factor value and the overhaul time factor value;
the overhaul time range comprises 1-3 days, 3-10 days, 10-30 days and more than 30 days, and the corresponding overhaul time factor values are 0.3-0.5, 0.5-1.0, 1.0-1.5 and 1.5-3.0 respectively.
Optionally, the weather factor-based power grid risk assessment method further includes:
acquiring a field construction influence factor value;
the probability value is the product of the equipment type factor value, the fault category factor value, the historical data statistical factor value, the weather influence factor value, the equipment defect influence factor value, the overhaul management factor value, the overhaul time factor value and the field construction influence factor value;
and the value of the field construction influence factor is 1-2.
Optionally, the weather factor-based power grid risk assessment method further includes:
acquiring a control measure factor value according to the control measure type;
the probability value is the product of the equipment type factor value, the fault category factor value, the historical data statistical factor value, the weather influence factor value, the equipment defect influence factor value, the overhaul management factor value, the overhaul time factor value, the field construction influence factor value and the control measure factor value;
the control measure type is a stability device or a low-frequency low-voltage load shedding device, the control measure which can reduce the safety risk of the power grid but cannot be eliminated can be achieved, and the factor value of the control measure is 0-1.
Compared with the prior art, the embodiment of the invention has the following beneficial effects:
according to the power grid risk assessment method based on the weather factors, provided by the embodiment of the invention, the product of the consequence severity value and the social influence factor value is calculated and recorded as the consequence value; calculating the product of the equipment type factor value, the fault category factor value, the historical data statistical factor value and the weather influence factor value, and recording the product as a probability value; calculating the product of the consequence value and the probability value, and recording the product as a risk value; and comparing the risk value with a range value corresponding to the risk grade, and judging the risk grade corresponding to the risk value. According to the power grid risk assessment method, the influence of weather factors on risk assessment is considered, the method is suitable for the risk assessment of the power grid in the coastal region, the lean management requirement of the power grid is met, more accurate risk prediction can be provided for the power grid in the coastal region, the risk is prevented in advance, and unnecessary loss is reduced.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without creative efforts.
The structures, ratios, sizes, and the like shown in the present specification are only used for matching with the contents disclosed in the specification, so that those skilled in the art can understand and read the present invention, and do not limit the conditions for implementing the present invention, so that the present invention has no technical significance, and any structural modifications, changes in the ratio relationship, or adjustments of the sizes, without affecting the functions and purposes of the present invention, should still fall within the scope covered by the contents disclosed in the present invention.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for evaluating risk of a power grid based on weather factors according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, features and advantages of the present invention more obvious and understandable, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is apparent that the embodiments described below are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
Referring to fig. 1, the present embodiment provides a method for evaluating risk of a power grid based on weather factors, including:
step S1, obtaining an outcome severity score according to the severity of the harm;
step S2, obtaining a social influence factor value according to the power supply protection degree;
step S3, calculating the product of the consequence severity score and the social influence factor value, and recording as the consequence value;
step S4, acquiring a device type factor value according to the device type;
step S5, acquiring fault category factor values according to fault categories;
step S6, obtaining a historical data statistical factor value according to the historical data statistics;
step S7, acquiring a weather influence factor value according to the weather type;
step S8, calculating the product of the equipment type factor value, the fault category factor value, the historical data statistical factor value and the weather influence factor value, and recording the product as a probability value;
step S9, calculating the product of the consequence value and the probability value, and recording as a risk value;
and step S10, comparing the risk value with the range value corresponding to the risk level, and judging the risk level corresponding to the risk value.
Further, the hazard severity comprises extra-large accident hazard, major accident hazard, larger accident hazard, general accident hazard, first-level event hazard, second-level event hazard, third-level event hazard, fourth-level event hazard and fifth-level event hazard, and the severity scores of the corresponding consequences are 4000-8000, 2000-2400, 400-600, 200-250, 100-150, 10-40, 1-5, 0 and 0 respectively.
The power supply protection degree comprises power supply protection in a general period, power supply protection in a special period, power supply protection in a secondary period, power supply protection in a primary period and power supply protection in a special period, and the corresponding social influence factor values are 1, 1.2, 1.4, 1.6 and 2 respectively.
The equipment types comprise a main transformer, a bus, a cable larger than 100 meters, a cable smaller than or equal to 100 meters, an overhead line larger than 100 meters, an overhead line smaller than or equal to 100 meters and a generator, and the factor values of the corresponding equipment types are 0.6, 0.2, 0.4, 0.2, 1, 0.7 and 1.5 respectively.
The fault types comprise a first type fault, a second type fault and a third type fault, and the factor values of the corresponding fault types are 1, 0.2-0.6 and 0-0.2 respectively.
The first type of fault is specified as follows:
after the electric power system in the normal operation mode is disturbed by the following single element faults, the protection, the switch and the reclosing switch correctly act, stable control measures are not taken, the stable operation of the electric power system and the normal power supply of a power grid must be kept, other elements do not exceed the specified accident overload capacity, and no linkage tripping occurs:
the reclosing of any line single-phase instantaneous earth fault is successful;
double-circuit or multi-circuit and ring network of the same level voltage, any circuit single-phase permanent fault coincidence is unsuccessful and no fault three-phase disconnection is not coincident;
double-circuit or multi-circuit and ring network of the same level voltage, any circuit three-phase fault disconnection is not coincident;
any generator trips or loses magnetism;
any transformer of the receiving end system is out of operation due to fault;
any large load sudden change;
the fault or no fault disconnection of any return AC tie line is not coincident;
and single pole fault of the direct current transmission line.
However, for the three-phase fault of the alternating current output line of the power plant, the single-pole fault of the direct current output line of the power plant, the fault or the fault-free disconnection of the single-circuit higher voltage line in the electromagnetic ring network with two-stage voltage, a generator cutter or a measure for quickly reducing the output of the generator set can be adopted when necessary.
The second type of fault is the specific case:
after a power system in a normal operation mode is disturbed by the following serious faults, the protection, the switch and the reclosing can keep stable operation, and if necessary, stable control measures such as a generator tripping and load shedding are allowed to be taken:
the single-phase permanent fault of the single-circuit line is not superposed successfully and the three-phase without fault is not superposed when disconnected;
a fault in any section of the bus;
when two different-name phases of the double circuit lines on the same tower are simultaneously subjected to single-phase earth fault superposition, the two circuit lines are simultaneously tripped;
and D, bipolar faults of the direct current transmission line.
The third type of fault is specific:
when the power system is stably damaged due to the following conditions, measures must be taken to prevent system collapse, avoid causing long-time large-area power failure and disastrous power failure to the most important users (including station service power), reduce load loss to the minimum as much as possible, and restore the normal operation of the power system as soon as possible:
the switch refuses to operate when the fault occurs;
relay protection in case of failure, malfunction or failure of the automatic device;
failure of the automatic regulating device;
multiple failures;
loss of high capacity power plants;
other contingencies.
The statistical factor value of the historical data is equal to the average annual failure frequency of the same type of equipment divided by the total number of the same type of equipment and then 1.
The weather types comprise normal weather, typhoon, thunderstorm strong wind, forest fire danger, high temperature, heavy fog and freezing, and the corresponding weather influence factor values are 1, 1-4, 1-2, 1-1.5, 1-1.2 and 1-1.5.
The risk grades comprise I-grade extra-large risk, II-grade major risk, III-grade larger risk, IV-grade general A-grade risk and V-grade general B-grade risk, and the corresponding risk value ranges are that the risk value is more than or equal to 1000, the risk value is more than or equal to 300, the risk value is more than or equal to 60 and less than or equal to 300, the risk value is more than or equal to 20 and less than or equal to 60, and the risk value is more than or equal to 5 and less than or equal to.
And when a regional power grid or a work simultaneously comprises the power grid operation risks with two or more risk levels, taking the highest risk level.
According to the power grid risk assessment method based on the weather factors, provided by the embodiment of the invention, the product of the consequence severity value and the social influence factor value is calculated and recorded as the consequence value; calculating the product of the equipment type factor value, the fault category factor value, the historical data statistical factor value and the weather influence factor value, and recording the product as a probability value; calculating the product of the consequence value and the probability value, and recording the product as a risk value; and comparing the risk value with a range value corresponding to the risk grade, and judging the risk grade corresponding to the risk value. According to the power grid risk assessment method, the influence of weather factors on risk assessment is considered, the method is suitable for the risk assessment of the power grid in the coastal region, the lean management requirement of the power grid is met, more accurate risk prediction can be provided for the power grid in the coastal region, the risk is prevented in advance, and unnecessary loss is reduced.
In another embodiment of the application, the power grid risk assessment method based on the weather factors further comprises selecting weather influence factor values according to the weather disaster early warning signals.
The meteorological disaster early warning signal comprises three categories of yellow early warning, orange early warning and red early warning.
Specifically, the method comprises the following steps:
in typhoon weather, when the weather disaster early warning signals are yellow early warning, orange early warning and red early warning respectively, the weather influence factor values are 1-2, 2-3 and 3-4 respectively;
in thunderstorm and strong wind weather, when the weather disaster early warning signals are yellow early warning, orange early warning and red early warning respectively, the weather influence factor values are 1-1.2, 1.2-1.5 and 1.5-2 respectively;
in forest fire hazard weather, when the weather disaster early warning signals are orange early warning and red early warning respectively, the weather influence factor values are 1-1.2 and 1-1.5 respectively;
under high-temperature weather, when the weather disaster early warning signal is orange early warning and red early warning respectively, the weather influence factor value is 1.1 and 1.2 respectively;
and under the heavy fog weather, when the weather disaster early warning signal is orange early warning and red early warning respectively, the weather influence factor value is 1.1 and 1.2 respectively.
Further, in another embodiment of the present application, a method for assessing risk of a power grid based on weather factors is characterized by further comprising:
acquiring an equipment defect influence factor value according to the equipment defect state;
the probability value is the product of the equipment type factor value, the fault category factor value, the historical data statistical factor value, the weather influence factor value and the equipment defect influence factor value;
the device defect status includes a normal status, an attention status, an abnormal status and a serious status, and the device defect influence factor values are 1, 1.2, 2 and 3, respectively.
Further, the power grid risk assessment method based on the weather factors further comprises the following steps:
acquiring a maintenance management factor value according to the maintenance type;
the probability value is the product of the equipment type factor value, the fault category factor value, the historical data statistical factor value, the weather influence factor value, the equipment defect influence factor value and the overhaul management factor value;
the overhaul types comprise planned overhaul, unplanned overhaul and accident first-aid repair, and the corresponding overhaul management factor values are 1, 1.5 and 2 respectively.
Further, the power grid risk assessment method based on the weather factors further comprises the following steps:
acquiring a maintenance time factor value according to the maintenance time range;
the probability value is the product of the equipment type factor value, the fault category factor value, the historical data statistical factor value, the weather influence factor value, the equipment defect influence factor value, the overhaul management factor value and the overhaul time factor value;
the overhaul time range comprises 1-3 days, 3-10 days, 10-30 days and more than 30 days, and the corresponding overhaul time factor values are 0.3-0.5, 0.5-1.0, 1.0-1.5 and 1.5-3.0 respectively.
Further, the power grid risk assessment method based on the weather factors further comprises the following steps:
acquiring a field construction influence factor value;
the probability value is the product of an equipment type factor value, a fault category factor value, a historical data statistical factor value, a weather influence factor value, an equipment defect influence factor value, an overhaul management factor value, an overhaul time factor value and a field construction influence factor value;
the influence factor value of the site construction is 1-2.
Further, the power grid risk assessment method based on the weather factors further comprises the following steps:
acquiring a control measure factor value according to the control measure type;
the probability value is the product of an equipment type factor value, a fault category factor value, a historical data statistical factor value, a weather influence factor value, an equipment defect influence factor value, an overhaul management factor value, an overhaul time factor value, a field construction influence factor value and a control measure factor value;
the control measure type is a stability device or a low-frequency low-voltage load reduction device, the control measure which can reduce the safety risk of the power grid but cannot be eliminated can be realized, and the factor value of the control measure is 0-1.
In summary, according to the power grid risk assessment method based on the weather factors, the probability value comprehensively considers the equipment type factor value, the fault category factor value, the historical data statistical factor value, the weather influence factor value, the equipment defect influence factor value, the overhaul management factor value, the overhaul time factor value, the field construction influence factor value and the control measure factor value, so that the method is not only suitable for risk assessment of a power grid in a coastal region, but also meets the requirement of power grid lean management, and can provide more accurate prediction of the risk for the power grid in the coastal region, so as to prevent the risk ahead of time and reduce unnecessary loss.
The terminology used herein is for the purpose of describing particular example embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting. As used herein, the singular forms "a", "an" and "the" are intended to include the plural forms as well, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise. The terms "comprises," "comprising," "including," and "having" are intended to be inclusive and therefore specify the presence of stated features, integers, steps, operations, elements, and/or components, but do not preclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, integers, steps, operations, elements, components, and/or groups thereof. The method steps, processes, and operations described herein are not to be construed as necessarily requiring their performance in the particular order discussed and illustrated, unless explicitly indicated as an order of performance. It should also be understood that additional or alternative steps may be employed.
When an element or layer is referred to as being "on" … … "," engaged with "… …", "connected to" or "coupled to" another element or layer, it can be directly on, engaged with, connected to or coupled to the other element or layer, or intervening elements or layers may also be present. In contrast, when an element or layer is referred to as being "directly on … …," "directly engaged with … …," "directly connected to" or "directly coupled to" another element or layer, there may be no intervening elements or layers present. Other words used to describe the relationship of elements should be interpreted in a similar manner (e.g., "between … …" and "directly between … …", "adjacent" and "directly adjacent", etc.). As used herein, the term "and/or" includes any and all combinations of one or more of the associated listed items. Although the terms first, second, third, etc. may be used herein to describe various elements, components, regions, layers and/or sections, these elements, components, regions, layers and/or sections should not be limited by these terms. These terms may be only used to distinguish one element, component, region or section from another element, component, region or section. Unless clearly indicated by the context, use of terms such as the terms "first," "second," and other numerical values herein does not imply a sequence or order. Thus, a first element, component, region, layer or section discussed below could be termed a second element, component, region, layer or section without departing from the teachings of the example embodiments.
Spatially relative terms, such as "inner," "outer," "below," "… …," "lower," "above," "upper," and the like, may be used herein for ease of description to describe a relationship between one element or feature and one or more other elements or features as illustrated in the figures. Spatially relative terms may be intended to encompass different orientations of the device in addition to the orientation depicted in the figures. For example, if the device in the figures is turned over, elements described as "below" or "beneath" other elements or features would then be oriented "above" the other elements or features. Thus, the example term "below … …" can encompass both an orientation of facing upward and downward. The device may be otherwise oriented (rotated 90 degrees or at other orientations) and the spatially relative descriptors used herein interpreted.
The above-mentioned embodiments are only used for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention, and not for limiting the same; although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the foregoing embodiments, it will be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art that: the technical solutions described in the foregoing embodiments may still be modified, or some technical features may be equivalently replaced; and such modifications or substitutions do not depart from the spirit and scope of the corresponding technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention.
Claims (8)
1. A power grid risk assessment method based on weather factors is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring an outcome severity score according to the severity of the harm;
obtaining a social influence factor value according to the power supply protection degree;
calculating the product of the consequence severity score and the social influence factor value, and recording as an consequence value;
acquiring a device type factor value according to the device type;
acquiring a fault category factor value according to the fault category;
obtaining a historical data statistical factor value according to historical data statistics;
acquiring a weather influence factor value according to the weather type;
calculating the product of the equipment type factor value, the fault category factor value, the historical data statistical factor value and the weather influence factor value, and recording the product as a probability value;
calculating the product of the consequence value and the probability value, and recording the product as a risk value;
and comparing the risk value with a range value corresponding to the risk grade, and judging the risk grade corresponding to the risk value.
2. The weather factor-based power grid risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein:
the hazard severity comprises extra-large accident hazard, major accident hazard, larger accident hazard, general accident hazard, primary event hazard, secondary event hazard, tertiary event hazard, quaternary event hazard and quinary event hazard, and the severity scores of the consequences respectively correspond to 4000-8000, 2000-2400, 400-600, 200-250, 100-150, 10-40, 1-5, 0 and 0;
the guarantee power supply degree comprises general time, special time guarantee power supply, secondary guarantee power supply, primary guarantee power supply and special guarantee power supply, and the social influence factor values are 1, 1.2, 1.4, 1.6 and 2 respectively;
the equipment types comprise a main transformer, a bus, a cable more than 100 meters, a cable less than or equal to 100 meters, an overhead line more than 100 meters, an overhead line less than or equal to 100 meters and a generator, and the factor values of the equipment types are respectively 0.6, 0.2, 0.4, 0.2, 1, 0.7 and 1.5;
the fault types comprise a first type fault, a second type fault and a third type fault, and the fault type factor values are 1, 0.2-0.6 and 0-0.2 respectively;
the historical data statistical factor value is equal to the average annual failure frequency of the similar equipment divided by the total number of the similar equipment and then 1;
the weather types comprise normal weather, typhoon, thunderstorm strong wind, forest fire danger, high temperature, heavy fog and icing, and the corresponding weather influence factor values are 1, 1-4, 1-2, 1-1.5, 1-1.2 and 1-1.5;
the risk grades comprise I-grade extra-large risk, II-grade major risk, III-grade larger risk, IV-grade general A-grade risk and V-grade general B-grade risk, and the corresponding risk value ranges are that the risk value is more than or equal to 1000, the risk value is more than or equal to 300 and less than 1000, the risk value is more than or equal to 60 and less than or equal to 300, the risk value is more than or equal to 20 and less than or equal to 5 and less than or equal to 20;
and when a regional power grid or a work simultaneously comprises the power grid operation risks with two or more risk levels, taking the highest risk level.
3. The weather factor-based power grid risk assessment method according to claim 2, further comprising selecting the weather affecting factor value according to a weather disaster early warning signal:
in typhoon weather, when the weather disaster early warning signals are yellow early warning, orange early warning and red early warning respectively, the weather influence factor values are 1-2, 2-3 and 3-4 respectively;
in thunderstorm and strong wind weather, when the weather disaster early warning signals are yellow early warning, orange early warning and red early warning respectively, the weather influence factor values are 1-1.2, 1.2-1.5 and 1.5-2 respectively;
in forest fire hazard weather, when the weather disaster early warning signals are orange early warning and red early warning respectively, the weather influence factor values are 1-1.2 and 1-1.5 respectively;
in high-temperature weather, when the weather disaster early warning signal is orange early warning and red early warning respectively, the weather influence factor value is 1.1 and 1.2 respectively;
and under the heavy fog weather, when the weather disaster early warning signal is orange early warning and red early warning respectively, the weather influence factor value is 1.1 and 1.2 respectively.
4. The weather factor-based power grid risk assessment method according to claim 1, further comprising:
acquiring an equipment defect influence factor value according to the equipment defect state;
the probability value is the product of the equipment type factor value, the fault category factor value, the historical data statistical factor value, the weather influence factor value and the equipment defect influence factor value;
the device defect states include a normal state, an attention state, an abnormal state and a serious state, and the device defect influence factor values respectively correspond to 1, 1.2, 2 and 3.
5. The weather factor-based power grid risk assessment method according to claim 4, further comprising:
acquiring a maintenance management factor value according to the maintenance type;
the probability value is the product of the equipment type factor value, the fault category factor value, the historical data statistical factor value, the weather influence factor value, the equipment defect influence factor value and the overhaul management factor value;
the overhaul types comprise planned overhaul, unplanned overhaul and accident first-aid repair, and the overhaul management factor values respectively correspond to 1, 1.5 and 2.
6. The weather factor-based power grid risk assessment method according to claim 5, further comprising:
acquiring a maintenance time factor value according to the maintenance time range;
the probability value is the product of the equipment type factor value, the fault category factor value, the historical data statistical factor value, the weather influence factor value, the equipment defect influence factor value, the overhaul management factor value and the overhaul time factor value;
the overhaul time range comprises 1-3 days, 3-10 days, 10-30 days and more than 30 days, and the corresponding overhaul time factor values are 0.3-0.5, 0.5-1.0, 1.0-1.5 and 1.5-3.0 respectively.
7. The weather factor-based power grid risk assessment method according to claim 6, further comprising:
acquiring a field construction influence factor value;
the probability value is the product of the equipment type factor value, the fault category factor value, the historical data statistical factor value, the weather influence factor value, the equipment defect influence factor value, the overhaul management factor value, the overhaul time factor value and the field construction influence factor value;
and the value of the field construction influence factor is 1-2.
8. The weather factor-based power grid risk assessment method according to claim 7, further comprising:
acquiring a control measure factor value according to the control measure type;
the probability value is the product of the equipment type factor value, the fault category factor value, the historical data statistical factor value, the weather influence factor value, the equipment defect influence factor value, the overhaul management factor value, the overhaul time factor value, the field construction influence factor value and the control measure factor value;
the control measure type is a stability device or a low-frequency low-voltage load shedding device, the control measure which can reduce the safety risk of the power grid but cannot be eliminated can be achieved, and the factor value of the control measure is 0-1.
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| CN113222356A (en) * | 2021-04-21 | 2021-08-06 | 长沙电力职业技术学院 | Safety risk assessment method and system for rural power grid emergency power supply equipment |
| CN115759479A (en) * | 2022-12-12 | 2023-03-07 | 中国人民解放军海军工程大学 | Complex equipment fault positioning optimization method and system based on comprehensive values |
| CN115759479B (en) * | 2022-12-12 | 2023-09-19 | 中国人民解放军海军工程大学 | Complex equipment fault positioning optimization method and system based on comprehensive value |
| CN116805210A (en) * | 2023-08-21 | 2023-09-26 | 国网安徽省电力有限公司合肥供电公司 | Intelligent power grid risk identification management and control method based on big data |
| CN116805210B (en) * | 2023-08-21 | 2024-01-12 | 国网安徽省电力有限公司合肥供电公司 | Intelligent power grid risk identification management and control method based on big data |
| CN117455317A (en) * | 2023-12-22 | 2024-01-26 | 深圳市鸿云智科技有限公司 | Method, system, storage medium and terminal for determining cigarette appearance defect influence factors |
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