CN113128851A - Construction risk assessment method, device and equipment and computer readable storage medium - Google Patents
Construction risk assessment method, device and equipment and computer readable storage medium Download PDFInfo
- Publication number
- CN113128851A CN113128851A CN202110364845.9A CN202110364845A CN113128851A CN 113128851 A CN113128851 A CN 113128851A CN 202110364845 A CN202110364845 A CN 202110364845A CN 113128851 A CN113128851 A CN 113128851A
- Authority
- CN
- China
- Prior art keywords
- risk
- construction
- target project
- value
- correction factor
- Prior art date
- Legal status (The legal status is an assumption and is not a legal conclusion. Google has not performed a legal analysis and makes no representation as to the accuracy of the status listed.)
- Pending
Links
Images
Classifications
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q50/00—Systems or methods specially adapted for specific business sectors, e.g. utilities or tourism
- G06Q50/08—Construction
Landscapes
- Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Human Resources & Organizations (AREA)
- Engineering & Computer Science (AREA)
- Economics (AREA)
- Strategic Management (AREA)
- Tourism & Hospitality (AREA)
- Theoretical Computer Science (AREA)
- Entrepreneurship & Innovation (AREA)
- General Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Marketing (AREA)
- General Business, Economics & Management (AREA)
- Physics & Mathematics (AREA)
- Educational Administration (AREA)
- Quality & Reliability (AREA)
- Operations Research (AREA)
- Game Theory and Decision Science (AREA)
- Development Economics (AREA)
- Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- General Health & Medical Sciences (AREA)
- Primary Health Care (AREA)
- Management, Administration, Business Operations System, And Electronic Commerce (AREA)
Abstract
The invention discloses a construction risk assessment method, which comprises the following steps: when an evaluation instruction is detected, acquiring the possibility of accidents of a target project corresponding to the evaluation instruction and the severity of accident consequences, and calculating the primary risk value of the target project based on the possibility and the severity; acquiring a risk expansion factor value of the target project, and calculating an inherent risk value of the target project based on the risk expansion factor value and the primary risk value; and acquiring a risk control correction factor of the target project, and calculating an actual risk value of the target project based on the risk control correction factor and the inherent risk value. The invention also discloses a construction risk assessment device, equipment and a computer readable storage medium. In the evaluation process, the construction risk of the target project is dynamically evaluated through the primary risk value and the dynamic risk expansion factor value of the target project, and the construction risk is corrected through the risk control correction factor, so that the final evaluation result is more accurate.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of risk assessment, in particular to a construction risk assessment method, a construction risk assessment device, construction risk assessment equipment and a computer readable storage medium.
Background
In recent years, with the development of urbanization becoming faster and faster, the number of projects related to urbanization is increasing, but the problem with the urbanization is that the number of engineering accidents is also increasing; in order to solve the construction safety risk generated during construction, the conventional assessment method considers multidimensional influence factors on the basis of a risk assessment method matrix method to realize construction safety risk assessment.
Currently, the most common method is a construction safety risk assessment method based on weight. The method is based on a traditional index system method, all evaluation indexes are introduced into the same scoring system, scoring of different indexes is regulated, a risk factor with a large specific weight is selected through statistical data, a weight factor is introduced on the basis of the weight of a universal standard, the influence degree of each index is measured, and the weighted average of the scoring of all the evaluation indexes is taken as a risk grade division standard.
Still another improved risk assessment method for construction projects is frequently used. According to the method, risk management theories of construction engineering projects are combined with engineering project characteristics, risk influence factors are identified and grouped according to hierarchical relations, a construction engineering risk evaluation index system is established, an improved intuitionistic fuzzy complementary judgment matrix is provided by using an intuitionistic fuzzy set theory, attribute weights are calculated by using an intuitionistic fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, and an optimal decision is provided.
However, the actual operation of the engineering construction safety risk assessment method needs to consider a plurality of factors and the assessment period is long, the existing risk assessment method is rigid when solving the problem of risk assessment regardless of the former or the latter, and the assessment cannot be dynamically followed along with time according to the current construction situation, so that the assessment result is inconsistent with the actual construction situation on site.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention mainly aims to provide a construction risk assessment method, a construction risk assessment device, construction risk assessment equipment and a computer readable storage medium, and aims to improve the accuracy of construction risk assessment.
In order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides a construction risk assessment method, including the steps of:
when an evaluation instruction is detected, acquiring the possibility of accident occurrence and the severity of accident consequences of a target project corresponding to the evaluation instruction, and calculating a primary risk value of the target project based on the possibility and the severity;
acquiring a risk expansion factor value of the target project, and calculating an inherent risk value of the target project based on the risk expansion factor value and the primary risk value;
and acquiring a risk control correction factor of the target project, and calculating an actual risk value of the target project based on the risk control correction factor and the inherent risk value.
Preferably, the step of obtaining the risk factor value of the target project comprises:
setting an evaluation time period;
acquiring historical weather conditions corresponding to the target project in the time period, and determining the number of construction persons and the number of construction machines corresponding to the target project in the time period;
and calculating the risk expansion factor value of the target project based on the historical weather condition, the number of the construction persons and the number of the construction machines.
Preferably, the calculating of the risk factor value of the target project based on the historical weather condition, the number of the construction persons, and the number of the construction machines includes:
determining a weather influence base number and a weather influence degree based on the historical weather condition, and calculating a severe weather expansion factor based on the weather influence base number and the weather influence degree;
determining the influence degree of the construction strength based on the number of construction persons and the number of construction machines, and calculating the construction strength of the target project based on the number of construction persons, the number of construction machines and the influence degree of the construction strength;
and calculating a risk expansion factor value of the target project based on the severe weather expansion factor and the construction strength.
Preferably, the step of obtaining the risk control correction factor of the target project comprises:
determining an evaluation result of a construction site of the target project, and determining a correction factor of the construction site according to the evaluation result;
and calculating a risk control correction factor of the target project based on the correction factor.
Preferably, the correction factor includes one or more of a disaster risk correction factor, a safety management level correction factor, an emergency rescue ability correction factor and a crowd safe evacuation correction factor.
Preferably, after the step of calculating the actual risk value of the target project based on the risk control correction factor and the intrinsic risk value, the construction risk assessment method further includes:
determining the risk level of the target project based on a preset risk level standard and the actual risk value;
and matching and outputting corresponding risk precautionary measures based on the risk grade.
Preferably, the step of obtaining the possibility of accident occurrence and the severity of accident consequence of the target project corresponding to the evaluation instruction includes:
acquiring construction site information of the target project, and determining a risk source of the target project based on the construction site information;
and identifying a risk category of the risk source, and determining the possibility of accident occurrence and the severity of accident consequences of the target project based on the risk category.
Further, to achieve the above object, a construction risk assessment device includes:
the first calculation module is used for acquiring the possibility of accidents of a target project corresponding to an evaluation instruction and the severity of accident consequences when the evaluation instruction is detected, and calculating the primary risk value of the target project based on the possibility and the severity;
the second calculation module is used for acquiring a risk expansion factor value of the target project and calculating an inherent risk value of the target project based on the risk expansion factor value and the primary risk value;
and the third calculation module is used for acquiring a risk control correction factor of the target project and calculating an actual risk value of the target project based on the risk control correction factor and the inherent risk value.
Preferably, the second calculation module is further configured to:
setting an evaluation time period;
acquiring historical weather conditions corresponding to the target project in the time period, and determining the number of construction persons and the number of construction machines corresponding to the target project in the time period;
and calculating the risk expansion factor value of the target project based on the historical weather condition, the number of the construction persons and the number of the construction machines.
Preferably, the second calculation module is further configured to:
determining a weather influence base number and a weather influence degree based on the historical weather condition, and calculating a severe weather expansion factor based on the weather influence base number and the weather influence degree;
determining the influence degree of the construction strength based on the number of construction persons and the number of construction machines, and calculating the construction strength of the target project based on the number of construction persons, the number of construction machines and the influence degree of the construction strength;
and calculating a risk expansion factor value of the target project based on the severe weather expansion factor and the construction strength.
Preferably, the third computing module is further configured to:
determining an evaluation result of a construction site of the target project, and determining a correction factor of the construction site according to the evaluation result;
and calculating a risk control correction factor of the target project based on the correction factor.
Preferably, the correction factor includes one or more of a disaster risk correction factor, a safety management level correction factor, an emergency rescue ability correction factor and a crowd safe evacuation correction factor.
Preferably, the third computing module is further configured to:
determining the risk level of the target project based on a preset risk level standard and the actual risk value;
and matching and outputting corresponding risk precautionary measures based on the risk grade.
Preferably, the first calculation module is further configured to:
acquiring construction site information of the target project, and determining a risk source of the target project based on the construction site information;
and identifying a risk category of the risk source, and determining the possibility of accident occurrence and the severity of accident consequences of the target project based on the risk category.
Further, to achieve the above object, a construction risk assessment apparatus includes: the construction risk assessment system comprises a memory, a processor and a construction risk assessment program stored on the memory and capable of running on the processor, wherein the construction risk assessment program realizes the steps of the construction risk assessment method when being executed by the processor.
Further, to achieve the above object, a computer-readable storage medium having stored thereon a construction risk assessment program which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the construction risk assessment method as described above.
According to the construction risk assessment method provided by the invention, when an assessment instruction is detected, the possibility of accident occurrence of the current project and the severity of accident consequences are determined, and an initial risk value is calculated; acquiring a risk expansion factor value, and calculating an inherent risk value by using the primary risk value and the risk expansion factor value; and acquiring a risk control correction factor, and calculating an actual risk value by using the risk control correction factor and the inherent risk value. In the evaluation process, the evaluation process and the construction progress change are synchronized through the primary risk value and the dynamic risk expansion factor value of the target project, a dynamic risk evaluation result can be obtained, the construction risk is corrected through the risk control correction factor, and the accuracy of the construction project risk evaluation is improved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of an apparatus architecture of a hardware operating environment according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic flow chart of a construction risk assessment method according to a first embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is a schematic flow chart of an implementation of the construction risk assessment method of the present invention.
The implementation, functional features and advantages of the objects of the present invention will be further explained with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Detailed Description
It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the invention and are not intended to limit the invention.
As shown in fig. 1, fig. 1 is a schematic device structure diagram of a hardware operating environment according to an embodiment of the present invention.
The device of the embodiment of the invention can be a mobile terminal or a server device.
As shown in fig. 1, the apparatus may include: a processor 1001, such as a CPU, a network interface 1004, a user interface 1003, a memory 1005, a communication bus 1002. Wherein a communication bus 1002 is used to enable connective communication between these components. The user interface 1003 may include a Display screen (Display), an input unit such as a Keyboard (Keyboard), and the optional user interface 1003 may also include a standard wired interface, a wireless interface. The network interface 1004 may optionally include a standard wired interface, a wireless interface (e.g., WI-FI interface). The memory 1005 may be a high-speed RAM memory or a non-volatile memory (e.g., a magnetic disk memory). The memory 1005 may alternatively be a storage device separate from the processor 1001.
Those skilled in the art will appreciate that the configuration of the apparatus shown in fig. 1 is not intended to be limiting of the apparatus and may include more or fewer components than those shown, or some components may be combined, or a different arrangement of components.
As shown in fig. 1, a memory 1005, which is a kind of computer storage medium, may include therein an operating system, a network communication module, a user interface module, and a construction risk assessment program.
The operating system is a program for managing and controlling construction risk assessment equipment and software resources, and supports the operation of a network communication module, a user interface module, a construction risk assessment program and other programs or software; the network communication module is used for managing and controlling the network interface 1002; the user interface module is used to manage and control the user interface 1003.
In the construction risk assessment apparatus shown in fig. 1, the construction risk assessment apparatus calls a construction risk assessment program stored in a memory 1005 by a processor 1001 and performs operations in various embodiments of the construction risk assessment method described below.
Based on the hardware structure, the embodiment of the construction risk assessment method is provided.
Referring to fig. 2, fig. 2 is a schematic flow chart of a first embodiment of the construction risk assessment method of the present invention, and the method includes:
step S10, when an evaluation instruction is detected, acquiring the possibility of accident occurrence and the severity of accident consequences of a target project corresponding to the evaluation instruction, and calculating the primary risk value of the target project based on the possibility and the severity;
step S20, acquiring a risk expansion factor value of the target project, and calculating an inherent risk value of the target project based on the risk expansion factor value and the primary risk value;
and step S30, acquiring a risk control correction factor of the target project, and calculating an actual risk value of the target project based on the risk control correction factor and the inherent risk value.
In this embodiment, the construction risk assessment method is applied to a risk assessment mechanism or a construction risk assessment device of an engineering construction mechanism, and the construction risk assessment device may be a mobile terminal or a server device, and for convenience of description, the construction risk assessment device is taken as an example for description. When the construction risk assessment equipment detects an assessment instruction, determining the type of the risk source by analyzing all risk sources existing at the construction site in the assessment instruction, thereby determining the possibility of accident occurrence and the severity of accident consequences of the current project and calculating a primary risk value; then obtaining historical weather conditions, the number of construction people and the number of construction machines in a preset period, calculating a dynamic risk expansion factor value, and calculating an inherent risk value based on the risk expansion factor value and the primary risk value, so that construction risks can be dynamically and flexibly evaluated; and finally, correcting the obtained inherent risk value by combining with the actual inspection condition of the construction site, specifically, calculating an actual risk value by obtaining a risk control correction factor and based on the risk control correction factor and the inherent risk value, so that the final construction risk result is more in line with the actual condition, and the accuracy of construction risk assessment is improved.
When an evaluation instruction is detected, the construction risk evaluation equipment calculates an original risk value, obtains a risk expansion factor value, adjusts the original risk, calculates an inherent risk value, determines a risk control correction factor, corrects the inherent risk value, and calculates an actual risk value. In the embodiment, the construction risk of the target project is dynamically evaluated through the primary risk value and the dynamic risk expansion factor value of the target project, and the construction risk is corrected through the risk control correction factor, so that the final evaluation result is more accurate and accords with the condition of a construction site.
The respective steps will be described in detail below:
step S10, when an evaluation instruction is detected, acquiring the possibility of accident occurrence and the severity of accident consequences of a target project corresponding to the evaluation instruction, and calculating the primary risk value of the target project based on the possibility and the severity;
in the embodiment, when an evaluation instruction is detected, the construction risk evaluation equipment identifies risks based on risk source information contained in the evaluation instruction, so as to determine the category of a risk source; the construction risk assessment equipment obtains the possibility of accident occurrence and the severity of accident consequences based on the categories of all existing risk sources and in combination with a preset expert investigation model. The expert survey model is set in advance in the construction risk assessment equipment, and in the embodiment, the expert survey model is an authoritative assessment model obtained according to the experience of relevant experts in construction safety risk assessment. Specifically, for the possibility of accidents, four scoring indexes can be described for scoring according to the probability of accidents within one year, historical conditions, future conditions and the possibility; for the severity of accident consequences, scoring can be carried out according to four scoring indexes of death or missing people, serious injury people, property loss and required emergency ability; thereby obtaining the possibility of accident and the severity of accident consequence; and the construction risk evaluation equipment calculates the primary risk value by using a risk matrix method according to the possibility of the accident and the severity of the accident consequence. The risk matrix method is a risk management tool method which is drawn in a matrix diagram according to the possibility of accidents and the severity of accident consequences and shows the risk and the importance level of the risk, and the calculation method is to multiply the possibility of accidents and the severity of accident consequences to obtain a primary risk value.
Specifically, the step of determining the primary risk value includes:
step a, acquiring construction site information of the target project, and determining a risk source of the target project based on the construction site information;
in the step, the construction risk assessment equipment receives the assessment instruction and identifies the risk source in the construction site according to the construction site information. The construction site information comprises information such as a construction process, worker operation specifications and the like; the risk sources include, but are not limited to, whether the laborers have behaviors of illegal command, illegal operation, illegal discipline and the like, and whether the construction process, such as a process, a construction machine operation process, a material conveying process and the like, has the possibility of occurrence of risk accidents.
And b, identifying the risk category of the risk source, and determining the possibility of the accident of the target project and the severity of the accident consequence based on the risk category.
In this step, the construction risk assessment equipment determines the possibility of accident occurrence and the severity of accident consequences of a project based on the category of the risk source and according to a preset expert survey model. And the construction risk evaluation equipment calculates the primary risk value by using a risk matrix method according to the possibility of the accident and the severity of the accident consequence. For example, if L indicates the possibility of an accident, S indicates the severity of the accident outcome, R1 indicates the primary risk, and the construction risk assessment device determines that L is 1 and S is 2, then R1 is L and S is 2.
Step S20, acquiring a risk expansion factor value of the target project, and calculating an inherent risk value of the target project based on the risk expansion factor value and the primary risk value;
in this embodiment, the construction risk assessment device analyzes the characteristics of weather, personnel and machinery quantity of a construction site changing along with time, analyzes historical statistics of severe weather conditions and influence degrees, the total number of construction people in the whole area and the total number of main construction machinery according to a preset period, calculates a risk expansion factor value, and obtains an inherent risk value according to the product of an original risk value and a wind risk expansion factor value.
Specifically, the step of calculating the intrinsic risk value of the target project comprises the following steps:
step c, setting an evaluation time period;
in this step, the selection of the evaluation time period is related to the reading of the subsequent history record, for example, if the time period is greater than N days, the data of other years in the same time period are read; if the time period is less than N days, historical data for 7-15 days of the current year is read.
Step d, acquiring historical weather conditions corresponding to the target project in the time period, and determining the number of construction persons and the number of construction machines corresponding to the target project in the time period;
in the step, the construction risk assessment equipment analyzes the characteristics of weather, personnel and machinery quantity changing along with time in a construction site in a preset period, and determines the severity of the weather, the number of construction personnel and the number of construction machines; for example, taking the evaluation of the construction risk of one month in the future as an example: predicting the severity of field weather, the number of construction people and the number of construction machines in a future month of a construction field; the method comprises the following steps of counting severe weather conditions according to monthly history of construction locations, predicting the weather conditions of one month in the future, and counting the types and the number of days of severe weather, wherein the counted severe weather types comprise: snow freezing, dust haze, strong wind, heavy rain, lightning, high temperature; predicting the number of construction people and the number of construction machines in the next month according to the construction plan in the next month; counting severe weather conditions according to monthly history, and predicting severe weather conditions of a construction site; the on-site weather is represented by a severe weather expansion factor W index, the characteristics of the number of construction persons and the number of construction machines can be represented by construction strength S, and the risk expansion factor value can be represented by W S.
And e, calculating the risk expansion factor value of the target project based on the historical weather condition, the number of the construction persons and the number of the construction machines.
In the step, the construction risk assessment equipment predicts the number of days of severe weather conditions in a preset period, the number of construction persons and the number of construction machines in the preset period, determines severe weather expansion factors according to the number of days of severe weather conditions, further obtains construction strength according to the number of construction persons and the number of construction machines, and calculates risk expansion factor values according to the severe weather expansion factors and the construction strength. Such as: the construction risk assessment device calculates the inherent risk value R2 ═ W × S × R1 ═ 2.226, based on the risk expansion factor value of 1.113, the primary risk value of 2, and the inherent risk value R2.
Further, step e comprises the steps of:
determining a weather influence base number and a weather influence degree based on the historical weather condition, and calculating a severe weather expansion factor based on the weather influence base number and the weather influence degree;
in the step, the construction risk assessment equipment analyzes the influence of different weather on the occurrence of construction risk events, calculates a weather influence base number W0 according to monthly history statistics of the weather condition and a preset reference value standard of the weather influence base number, calculates the value of a weather influence degree W1 according to the preset reference value standard of the weather influence degree, adds the weather influence base number and the weather influence degree, and calculates a weather expansion factor W; the preset severe weather influence base number reference value standard and the preset severe weather influence degree value standard are obtained by analyzing the influence degree of different historical severe weather on construction safety according to related technicians, and are set in advance in the construction risk assessment equipment.
In one embodiment, the severe weather impact cardinality reference value may be:
among them, the severe weather type, that is, the influence factor, includes: snow freezing, dust haze, strong wind, heavy rain, lightning, high temperature and the like are respectively expressed by W2, W3, W4, W5, W6 and W7 in one embodiment, the weather influence base W0 is 1+ W2+ W3+ W4+ W5+ W6+ W7, 1 in the formula represents the influence base when no severe weather occurs, and if some severe weather conditions do not occur, the value of the non-occurrence is 0. In one embodiment, to quantify the effect of severe weather, a value may be assigned to severe weather, such as snow freezing-W2-0.01, dust haze-W3-0.02, strong wind-W4-0.03, heavy rain-W5-0.03, lightning-W6-0.02, high temperature-W7-0.02, etc.
In one embodiment, the reference value of the adverse weather effect level may be:
the severe weather influence degree value standard can be as follows: the degree of influence W1 when severe weather occurs takes the value: no effect is 0.00, general effect is 0.01, major effect is 0.03, major effect is 0.05; for example, counting the severe weather conditions according to the monthly history, if two severe weather conditions, namely rainstorm and thunder, occur in the same month as the predicted month in the history, and the degree of influence of the occurring severe weather on construction safety is a general influence, the degree of influence W1 is determined to be 0.01, the rainstorm weather expansion factor W5 is determined to be 0.03, the thunder weather expansion factor W6 is determined to be 0.02, and if other severe weather conditions do not occur, the degree of influence is determined to be 0, and according to the data, the influence base W0 is calculated to be 1+ W2+ W3 to be 1.05, and the severe weather expansion factor W is calculated to be W0+ W1 to be 1.06.
Determining the influence degree of the construction strength based on the number of construction persons and the number of construction machines, and calculating the construction strength of the target project based on the number of construction persons, the number of construction machines and the influence degree of the construction strength;
in the step, the construction risk assessment equipment predicts the construction number, the construction machinery number and the influence degree of the construction strength in a future period of time according to the construction plan, determines the values of a construction number base number S2, a construction machinery number base number S3 and a construction strength influence degree S1 according to a preset construction number value standard, a preset construction machinery number value standard and a preset construction strength influence degree value standard, and calculates the value of the construction strength S.
In an embodiment, the preset construction people number base value standard may be:
the construction number of people is 0.02 when the expected number of people is 0-2 ten thousand, 0.03 when the expected number of people is 2-5 ten thousand, and 0.05 when the expected number of people is 5 or more.
In an embodiment, the predetermined construction machine number base value standard may be:
the number base of construction machines is 0.02 when the number of construction machines is 0-500, 0.03 when the number of construction machines is 500-2000, and 0.05 when the number of construction machines is 2000 or more.
In an embodiment, the preset construction strength influence degree value standard may be:
the preset influence degree of the construction strength is 0.00 without influence, the general influence is 0.01, the larger influence is 0.03, and the major influence is 0.05.
If the number of construction persons is predicted to be ten thousand, the number of construction machines is predicted to be 400, and the influence degree of the construction strength is a general influence according to the construction plan of the next month, the number of construction persons S2 is determined to be 0.02, the number of construction machines S3 is determined to be 0.02, and the influence degree of the construction strength S1 is determined to be 0.01, and the construction strength S is calculated to be 1+ S1+ S2+ S3 to be 1.05, where 1 in the formula represents the construction strength in the shutdown state of the construction site.
And calculating a risk expansion factor value of the target project based on the severe weather expansion factor and the construction strength.
In the step, the construction risk assessment equipment calculates a severe weather expansion factor and construction strength, and calculates a risk expansion factor value according to the product of the severe weather expansion factor and the construction strength; if the calculated severe weather expansion factor W is 1.06 and the construction strength S is 1.05, the risk expansion factor value W is 1.113 is calculated from the values of the two factors.
And step S30, acquiring a risk control correction factor of the target project, and calculating an actual risk value of the target project based on the risk control correction factor and the inherent risk value.
In this embodiment, because the construction site has many posts, large staff education and age level span, various devices and materials on the construction site have high density, frequent instrument movement, many staff cross operations, various processes are affected with each other, and the implementation of each prescribed measure in the data such as construction organization design and special schemes is restricted by various factors, the implementation of the site and the original scheme have certain access, so that the construction risk assessment device must determine related risk control correction factors by combining the actual inspection condition of the construction site, further correct the inherent risk value obtained in the previous step, and calculate the actual risk value. For example, the risk control correction factor M is 0.8758, the intrinsic risk value R2 is 2.226, and the actual risk value R is M R2 is 1.9428.
Specifically, the step of calculating the actual risk value of the target project includes:
f, determining an evaluation result of the construction site of the target project, and determining a correction factor of the construction site according to the evaluation result;
in the step, the construction risk assessment equipment determines correction factors of the construction site according to the accident disaster risk, the safety management level, the emergency rescue capacity and the crowd safety evacuation assessment result of the construction site, wherein the assessment result is that the four risk correction factors are graded respectively; the risk correction factor grades are divided into four grades of poor, general, qualified and good, different grades correspond to different value ranges, when the grade is poor, the value range of the risk correction factor is-0.1 to-0.05, when the grade is general, the value range of the risk correction factor is-0.05 to 0, when the grade is qualified, the value range of the risk correction factor is 0 to 0.05, and when the grade is good, the value range of the risk correction factor is 0.05 to 0.1; and quantifying the risk correction factors of the construction site by utilizing grade division.
In one embodiment, the value criteria for the four risk correction factors may be:
the construction risk assessment equipment determines the value of a disaster risk correction factor m1, the value of a safety management level correction factor m2, the value of an emergency rescue ability correction factor m3 and the value of a crowd safety evacuation correction factor m4 according to the levels of the four risk correction factors; for example, the disaster risk correction factor is analyzed by the construction risk assessment device, the grade is divided into general grades, and then the value of the disaster risk correction factor is determined to be-0.05 to 0 according to the value standard of which the grade is general, and the determination methods of the values of other correction factors are the same as those of the disaster risk correction factor, which is not repeated herein.
And g, calculating a risk control correction factor of the target project based on the correction factor.
In the step, the construction risk assessment equipment calculates a risk control correction factor according to the value of the disaster risk correction factor, the value of the safety management level correction factor, the value of the emergency rescue ability correction factor and the value of the crowd safety evacuation correction factor; for example, the disaster risk correction factor M1 is 0.01, the safety management level M2 is 0.05, the emergency rescue capacity M3 is 0.03, and the crowd safety evacuation factor M4 is 0.04, and the risk control correction factor M is (1-M1) (1-M2) ((1-M3) ((1-M4))) (0.8758) calculated according to the values of the four correction factors.
In one embodiment, the correction factor includes one or more of a disaster risk correction factor, a safety management level correction factor, an emergency rescue ability correction factor, and a crowd evacuation safety correction factor.
In an embodiment, the correction factors include a disaster risk correction factor, a safety management level correction factor, an emergency rescue ability correction factor and a crowd safety evacuation correction factor, but in the process of practical application, because the construction site is managed in place, only part of the risk correction factors may exist in the construction site, even no risk correction factor exists; the risk correction factor that is not present is assigned 0 during the evaluation, and if none of the above risk correction factors are present, the risk control correction factor is assigned 1, i.e., without corrective action M1 is 0, M2 is 0, M3 is 0, M4 is 0, and M is 1; the four factors m1, m2, m3, m4 do not necessarily exist simultaneously, and the nonexistent term value is 0.
When an evaluation instruction is detected, the method calculates an original risk value, obtains a risk expansion factor value, adjusts the original risk, calculates an inherent risk value, determines a risk control correction factor, corrects the inherent risk value, and calculates an actual risk value. Factors related to time such as weather, construction strength and the like are added, the defect that the original evaluation method can only evaluate site safety risks in the evaluation implementation process is overcome, the evaluation result conforms to the actual construction progress change, and dynamic risk evaluation is realized; risk factors such as on-site weather factors, personnel investment, mechanical investment, safety management level, emergency rescue capability and the like are all quantized, the condition that an original evaluation method mostly depends on personal experience is improved, the evaluation result difference of different personnel is large, and the quantity standardization and value standardization of the risk factors are realized; accident disaster risk correction factors, safety management level correction factors, emergency rescue ability correction factors and crowd safety evacuation correction factors are introduced, and the defects that an original risk assessment method is insufficient in influence factors and the assessment result has large deviation from the actual result are overcome; by combining the above effects, the embodiment not only realizes dynamic risk assessment, but also further improves the accuracy of the assessment result.
Further, based on the first embodiment of the construction risk assessment method of the present invention, a second embodiment of the construction risk assessment method of the present invention is provided.
The second embodiment of the construction risk assessment method differs from the first embodiment of the construction risk assessment method in that, after step S30, the construction risk assessment method further includes:
and h, determining the risk level of the target project based on a preset risk level standard and the actual risk value.
And i, matching and outputting corresponding risk precautionary measures based on the risk grade.
In the embodiment, after the construction risk assessment equipment calculates the actual risk value, the risk level of the project is determined according to the preset risk level standard and by combining the actual risk value; and then, corresponding risk precautionary measures are matched and output, so that related construction safety personnel can adopt different risk avoiding operations according to the severity of the risk level.
This step will be described in detail below:
and h, determining the risk level of the target project based on a preset risk level standard and the actual risk value.
In the step, the construction risk assessment equipment determines the risk level of the project according to a preset risk level standard and by combining the actual risk value obtained by calculation; the preset risk level standard is set in advance in the construction risk assessment equipment by relevant experts of construction risk assessment according to specific risk assessment steps and by combining the risk degree of the risk; the risk grade standard divides the risk into four grades, including major risk, general risk and low risk; when the actual risk value is larger than 20, judging as a major risk; when the actual risk value is more than 20 and is more than or equal to 10, judging the risk is larger; when the actual risk value is more than 10 and more than or equal to 5, judging as a general risk; and when the actual risk value is more than 5 and is more than or equal to 1, judging the low risk.
And i, matching and outputting corresponding risk precautionary measures based on the risk grade.
In the step, the construction risk assessment equipment makes corresponding risk precautionary measures in advance according to the actual risk level: major risks, which can cause catastrophic accidents, must be eliminated immediately; the risk is high, and measures are required to be taken immediately; general risks, measures should be taken; low risk, management should be enhanced. Therefore, after the risk grade is obtained, the corresponding risk precautionary measures can be matched and output. If the calculated actual risk value is 1.9428, and the actual risk of the target project belongs to low risk according to the judgment standard, the measure for strengthening management is output. During specific implementation, the corresponding relation between the risk level and the risk precautionary measure can be made into a mapping table in advance and stored in the construction risk assessment equipment, and after the risk level is obtained, the corresponding risk precautionary measure can be matched through checking the mapping table and output.
In the embodiment, the construction risk assessment equipment rapidly calculates an accurate actual risk value and assesses the risk level according to the construction site condition, divides the actual risk value into different levels according to a preset risk level standard, and makes corresponding measures according to the different risk levels; and evaluating the risk grade through the accurate risk value, so that related personnel can obtain accurate corresponding measures.
Referring to fig. 3, in the process of evaluating the construction risk, the risk evaluation device first obtains the accident probability and the severity of the accident consequence in the target project, and then calculates the primary risk of the target project according to a risk matrix method; the risk assessment equipment acquires bad weather in monthly history, wherein the bad weather comprises freezing, strong wind and the like, the number of construction people and the number of construction machines are predicted according to the monthly construction plan, the construction intensity is obtained, and then the inherent risk is calculated based on the influence of the bad weather and the construction intensity on the primary risk; because a plurality of potential safety hazards exist in a construction site, the risk assessment equipment needs to determine an accident disaster risk correction factor, a safety management level (correction factor), an emergency rescue capability (correction factor) and a crowd safety evacuation correction factor in the construction site, and calculate an actual risk by using the inherent risk and the four correction factors.
The invention also provides a construction risk assessment device. The construction risk assessment device of the invention comprises:
the first calculation module is used for acquiring the possibility of accidents of a target project corresponding to an evaluation instruction and the severity of accident consequences when the evaluation instruction is detected, and calculating the primary risk value of the target project based on the possibility and the severity;
the second calculation module is used for acquiring a risk expansion factor value of the target project and calculating an inherent risk value of the target project based on the risk expansion factor value and the primary risk value;
and the third calculation module is used for acquiring a risk control correction factor of the target project and calculating an actual risk value of the target project based on the risk control correction factor and the inherent risk value.
Preferably, the second calculation module is further configured to:
setting an evaluation time period;
acquiring historical weather conditions corresponding to the target project in the time period, and determining the number of construction persons and the number of construction machines corresponding to the target project in the time period;
and calculating the risk expansion factor value of the target project based on the historical weather condition, the number of the construction persons and the number of the construction machines.
Preferably, the second calculation module is further configured to:
determining a weather influence base number and a weather influence degree based on the historical weather condition, and calculating a severe weather expansion factor based on the weather influence base number and the weather influence degree;
determining the influence degree of the construction strength based on the number of construction persons and the number of construction machines, and calculating the construction strength of the target project based on the number of construction persons, the number of construction machines and the influence degree of the construction strength;
and calculating a risk expansion factor value of the target project based on the severe weather expansion factor and the construction strength.
Preferably, the third computing module is further configured to:
determining an evaluation result of a construction site of the target project, and determining a correction factor of the construction site according to the evaluation result;
and calculating a risk control correction factor of the target project based on the correction factor.
Preferably, the correction factor includes one or more of a disaster risk correction factor, a safety management level correction factor, an emergency rescue ability correction factor and a crowd safe evacuation correction factor.
Preferably, the third computing module is further configured to:
determining the risk level of the target project based on a preset risk level standard and the actual risk value;
and matching and outputting corresponding risk precautionary measures based on the risk grade.
Preferably, the first calculation module is further configured to:
acquiring construction site information of the target project, and determining a risk source of the target project based on the construction site information;
and identifying a risk category of the risk source, and determining the possibility of accident occurrence and the severity of accident consequences of the target project based on the risk category.
The invention also provides a computer readable storage medium.
The computer-readable storage medium of the present invention has stored thereon a construction risk assessment program that, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the construction risk assessment method as described above.
The method implemented when the construction risk assessment program running on the processor is executed may refer to each embodiment of the construction risk assessment method of the present invention, and details are not described here.
It should be noted that, in this document, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or system that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or system. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising an … …" does not exclude the presence of other like elements in a process, method, article, or system that comprises the element.
The above-mentioned serial numbers of the embodiments of the present invention are merely for description and do not represent the merits of the embodiments.
Through the above description of the embodiments, those skilled in the art will clearly understand that the method of the above embodiments can be implemented by software plus a necessary general hardware platform, and certainly can also be implemented by hardware, but in many cases, the former is a better implementation manner. Based on such understanding, the technical solution of the present invention may be embodied in the form of a software product, which is stored in a storage medium (e.g., ROM/RAM, magnetic disk, optical disk) as described above and includes instructions for enabling a terminal device (e.g., a mobile phone, a computer, a server, or a network device) to execute the method according to the embodiments of the present invention.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and all modifications of equivalent structures and equivalent processes, which are made by using the contents of the present specification and the accompanying drawings, or directly or indirectly applied to other related technical fields, are included in the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A construction risk assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
when an evaluation instruction is detected, acquiring the possibility of accident occurrence and the severity of accident consequences of a target project corresponding to the evaluation instruction, and calculating a primary risk value of the target project based on the possibility and the severity;
acquiring a risk expansion factor value of the target project, and calculating an inherent risk value of the target project based on the risk expansion factor value and the primary risk value;
and acquiring a risk control correction factor of the target project, and calculating an actual risk value of the target project based on the risk control correction factor and the inherent risk value.
2. The construction risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the step of obtaining the risk expansion factor value of the target project comprises:
setting an evaluation time period;
acquiring historical weather conditions corresponding to the target project in the time period, and determining the number of construction persons and the number of construction machines corresponding to the target project in the time period;
and calculating the risk expansion factor value of the target project based on the historical weather condition, the number of the construction persons and the number of the construction machines.
3. The construction risk assessment method according to claim 2, wherein the calculating of the risk expansion factor value of the target project based on the historical weather condition, the number of the construction persons, and the number of the construction machines comprises:
determining a weather influence base number and a weather influence degree based on the historical weather condition, and calculating a severe weather expansion factor based on the weather influence base number and the weather influence degree;
determining the influence degree of the construction strength based on the number of construction persons and the number of construction machines, and calculating the construction strength of the target project based on the number of construction persons, the number of construction machines and the influence degree of the construction strength;
and calculating a risk expansion factor value of the target project based on the severe weather expansion factor and the construction strength.
4. The construction risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein the step of obtaining the risk control correction factor of the target project comprises:
determining an evaluation result of a construction site of the target project, and determining a correction factor of the construction site according to the evaluation result;
and calculating a risk control correction factor of the target project based on the correction factor.
5. The construction risk assessment method according to claim 4, wherein the correction factor comprises one or more of a disaster risk correction factor, a safety management level correction factor, an emergency rescue ability correction factor and a crowd safety evacuation correction factor.
6. The construction risk assessment method according to claim 1, wherein after the step of calculating the actual risk value of the target project based on the risk control correction factor and the intrinsic risk value, the construction risk assessment method further comprises:
determining the risk level of the target project based on a preset risk level standard and the actual risk value;
and matching and outputting corresponding risk precautionary measures based on the risk grade.
7. The construction risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein the step of obtaining the possibility of accident occurrence and the severity of accident consequences of the target project corresponding to the assessment instruction comprises:
acquiring construction site information of the target project, and determining a risk source of the target project based on the construction site information;
and identifying a risk category of the risk source, and determining the possibility of accident occurrence and the severity of accident consequences of the target project based on the risk category.
8. A construction risk assessment device, characterized by comprising:
the first calculation module is used for acquiring the possibility of accidents of a target project corresponding to an evaluation instruction and the severity of accident consequences when the evaluation instruction is detected, and calculating the primary risk value of the target project based on the possibility and the severity;
the second calculation module is used for acquiring a risk expansion factor value of the target project and calculating an inherent risk value of the target project based on the risk expansion factor value and the primary risk value;
and the third calculation module is used for acquiring a risk control correction factor of the target project and calculating an actual risk value of the target project based on the risk control correction factor and the inherent risk value.
9. A construction risk assessment apparatus, characterized by comprising: a memory, a processor and a construction risk assessment program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, the construction risk assessment program when executed by the processor implementing the steps of the construction risk assessment method of any one of claims 1 to 7.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, characterized in that a construction risk assessment program is stored thereon, which when executed by a processor implements the steps of the construction risk assessment method according to any one of claims 1 to 7.
Priority Applications (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN202110364845.9A CN113128851A (en) | 2021-04-02 | 2021-04-02 | Construction risk assessment method, device and equipment and computer readable storage medium |
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN202110364845.9A CN113128851A (en) | 2021-04-02 | 2021-04-02 | Construction risk assessment method, device and equipment and computer readable storage medium |
Publications (1)
| Publication Number | Publication Date |
|---|---|
| CN113128851A true CN113128851A (en) | 2021-07-16 |
Family
ID=76774891
Family Applications (1)
| Application Number | Title | Priority Date | Filing Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN202110364845.9A Pending CN113128851A (en) | 2021-04-02 | 2021-04-02 | Construction risk assessment method, device and equipment and computer readable storage medium |
Country Status (1)
| Country | Link |
|---|---|
| CN (1) | CN113128851A (en) |
Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN114809389A (en) * | 2022-04-26 | 2022-07-29 | 中铁二十局集团第三工程有限公司 | Collapse prevention construction control method, equipment, system and medium for steel structure |
Citations (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN104392391A (en) * | 2014-11-14 | 2015-03-04 | 国家电网公司 | Power grid running safety risk quantification method |
| CN110717675A (en) * | 2019-10-10 | 2020-01-21 | 广西电网有限责任公司 | Power grid construction risk assessment method |
| CN110751394A (en) * | 2019-10-21 | 2020-02-04 | 杭州交联电气工程有限公司 | LEC-based dynamic security risk evaluation method |
| CN111582702A (en) * | 2020-04-30 | 2020-08-25 | 广东电网有限责任公司 | Power grid risk assessment method based on weather factors |
| CN112116204A (en) * | 2020-08-21 | 2020-12-22 | 北京国电通网络技术有限公司 | Dynamic risk assessment method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium |
| CN112330184A (en) * | 2020-11-18 | 2021-02-05 | 深圳大学 | Construction risk prediction method, device, equipment and medium |
-
2021
- 2021-04-02 CN CN202110364845.9A patent/CN113128851A/en active Pending
Patent Citations (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN104392391A (en) * | 2014-11-14 | 2015-03-04 | 国家电网公司 | Power grid running safety risk quantification method |
| CN110717675A (en) * | 2019-10-10 | 2020-01-21 | 广西电网有限责任公司 | Power grid construction risk assessment method |
| CN110751394A (en) * | 2019-10-21 | 2020-02-04 | 杭州交联电气工程有限公司 | LEC-based dynamic security risk evaluation method |
| CN111582702A (en) * | 2020-04-30 | 2020-08-25 | 广东电网有限责任公司 | Power grid risk assessment method based on weather factors |
| CN112116204A (en) * | 2020-08-21 | 2020-12-22 | 北京国电通网络技术有限公司 | Dynamic risk assessment method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium |
| CN112330184A (en) * | 2020-11-18 | 2021-02-05 | 深圳大学 | Construction risk prediction method, device, equipment and medium |
Cited By (1)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN114809389A (en) * | 2022-04-26 | 2022-07-29 | 中铁二十局集团第三工程有限公司 | Collapse prevention construction control method, equipment, system and medium for steel structure |
Similar Documents
| Publication | Publication Date | Title |
|---|---|---|
| EP3043447B1 (en) | Distribution transformer heavy loading and overloading mid-term and short-term pre-warning analytics model | |
| US10275183B2 (en) | System for categorical data dynamic decoding | |
| CN107958268A (en) | The training method and device of a kind of data model | |
| US8010398B2 (en) | System for managing risk | |
| CN109359894B (en) | RPN-based risk evaluation method and device for electric power metering equipment | |
| US10430743B2 (en) | Computerized system for simulating the likelihood of technology change incidents | |
| WO2021073343A1 (en) | Method and apparatus for analyzing root cause of failure of communication system, system and computer storage medium | |
| US10838969B2 (en) | Computerized system for evaluating technology stability | |
| US10366337B2 (en) | Computerized system for evaluating the likelihood of technology change incidents | |
| US20170242893A1 (en) | Computerized system for analyzing operational event data | |
| US10275182B2 (en) | System for categorical data encoding | |
| US10223425B2 (en) | Operational data processor | |
| US10387230B2 (en) | Technical language processor administration | |
| US20170243117A1 (en) | Computerized system for evaluating and modifying technology change events | |
| Huang et al. | Safety evaluation of construction based on the improved AHP-grey model | |
| AU2015202866A1 (en) | Computer system and computer-based method for assessing the safety of a process industry plant | |
| US8229692B2 (en) | Methods, systems, and computer-readable media for facility integrity testing | |
| Rahimi et al. | Monitoring human and organizational factors influencing common-cause failures of safety-instrumented system during the operational phase | |
| US10216798B2 (en) | Technical language processor | |
| CN113626335A (en) | Quality evaluation method and system for public security traffic management application software | |
| CN113128851A (en) | Construction risk assessment method, device and equipment and computer readable storage medium | |
| CN112668772A (en) | State development trend prediction method, device, equipment and storage medium | |
| KR102232876B1 (en) | Breakdown type analysis system and method of digital equipment | |
| CN114742432A (en) | Market procurement trade wind control management method and management system thereof | |
| US20170243130A1 (en) | Computerized system for evaluating the impact of technology change incidents |
Legal Events
| Date | Code | Title | Description |
|---|---|---|---|
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| PB01 | Publication | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination | ||
| SE01 | Entry into force of request for substantive examination |