CN102880810A - 基于时间序列和神经网络法的风电功率预测方法 - Google Patents
基于时间序列和神经网络法的风电功率预测方法 Download PDFInfo
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- F—MECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
- F03—MACHINES OR ENGINES FOR LIQUIDS; WIND, SPRING, OR WEIGHT MOTORS; PRODUCING MECHANICAL POWER OR A REACTIVE PROPULSIVE THRUST, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- F03D—WIND MOTORS
- F03D7/00—Controlling wind motors
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06N—COMPUTING ARRANGEMENTS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS
- G06N3/00—Computing arrangements based on biological models
- G06N3/02—Neural networks
- G06N3/04—Architecture, e.g. interconnection topology
- G06N3/049—Temporal neural networks, e.g. delay elements, oscillating neurons or pulsed inputs
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- F—MECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
- F05—INDEXING SCHEMES RELATING TO ENGINES OR PUMPS IN VARIOUS SUBCLASSES OF CLASSES F01-F04
- F05B—INDEXING SCHEME RELATING TO WIND, SPRING, WEIGHT, INERTIA OR LIKE MOTORS, TO MACHINES OR ENGINES FOR LIQUIDS COVERED BY SUBCLASSES F03B, F03D AND F03G
- F05B2260/00—Function
- F05B2260/82—Forecasts
- F05B2260/821—Parameter estimation or prediction
- F05B2260/8211—Parameter estimation or prediction of the weather
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- F—MECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
- F05—INDEXING SCHEMES RELATING TO ENGINES OR PUMPS IN VARIOUS SUBCLASSES OF CLASSES F01-F04
- F05B—INDEXING SCHEME RELATING TO WIND, SPRING, WEIGHT, INERTIA OR LIKE MOTORS, TO MACHINES OR ENGINES FOR LIQUIDS COVERED BY SUBCLASSES F03B, F03D AND F03G
- F05B2270/00—Control
- F05B2270/40—Type of control system
- F05B2270/404—Type of control system active, predictive, or anticipative
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- G—PHYSICS
- G05—CONTROLLING; REGULATING
- G05B—CONTROL OR REGULATING SYSTEMS IN GENERAL; FUNCTIONAL ELEMENTS OF SUCH SYSTEMS; MONITORING OR TESTING ARRANGEMENTS FOR SUCH SYSTEMS OR ELEMENTS
- G05B13/00—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion
- G05B13/02—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric
- G05B13/0265—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric the criterion being a learning criterion
- G05B13/027—Adaptive control systems, i.e. systems automatically adjusting themselves to have a performance which is optimum according to some preassigned criterion electric the criterion being a learning criterion using neural networks only
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02E—REDUCTION OF GREENHOUSE GAS [GHG] EMISSIONS, RELATED TO ENERGY GENERATION, TRANSMISSION OR DISTRIBUTION
- Y02E10/00—Energy generation through renewable energy sources
- Y02E10/70—Wind energy
- Y02E10/72—Wind turbines with rotation axis in wind direction
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CN201210413575.7A CN102880810B (zh) | 2012-10-25 | 2012-10-25 | 基于时间序列和神经网络法的风电功率预测方法 |
PCT/CN2013/000974 WO2014063436A1 (zh) | 2012-10-25 | 2013-08-21 | 基于时间序列和神经网络法的风电功率预测方法 |
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Cited By (12)
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CN103235984A (zh) * | 2013-04-27 | 2013-08-07 | 国家电网公司 | 风电场出力的纵向时刻概率分布计算方法 |
CN103473322A (zh) * | 2013-09-13 | 2013-12-25 | 国家电网公司 | 基于时间序列模型的光伏发电功率超短期预测方法 |
CN103489041A (zh) * | 2013-09-17 | 2014-01-01 | 国家电网公司 | 一种短期风电功率预测方法 |
CN103577893A (zh) * | 2013-11-05 | 2014-02-12 | 国家电网公司 | 一种新能源与火电双向为高载能负荷供电的节能优化方法 |
WO2014063436A1 (zh) * | 2012-10-25 | 2014-05-01 | 国网山东省电力公司电力科学研究院 | 基于时间序列和神经网络法的风电功率预测方法 |
CN104376388A (zh) * | 2014-12-08 | 2015-02-25 | 国家电网公司 | 一种基于风速因子控制模型的风电超短期功率预测方法 |
CN105868559A (zh) * | 2016-03-29 | 2016-08-17 | 北京师范大学 | 一种大气颗粒物质量浓度的拟合方法 |
CN108537327A (zh) * | 2018-03-28 | 2018-09-14 | 北京航空航天大学 | 一种基于时间序列bp神经网络预测方法及装置 |
CN109657839A (zh) * | 2018-11-22 | 2019-04-19 | 天津大学 | 一种基于深度卷积神经网络的风电功率预测方法 |
CN110032555A (zh) * | 2019-04-16 | 2019-07-19 | 上海建科工程咨询有限公司 | 一种神经网络塔吊风险预测方法及系统 |
CN110263915A (zh) * | 2019-05-31 | 2019-09-20 | 广东工业大学 | 一种基于深度信念网络的风电功率预测方法 |
CN113343562A (zh) * | 2021-05-26 | 2021-09-03 | 国网天津市电力公司电力科学研究院 | 一种基于混合建模策略的风机功率预测方法及系统 |
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CN104778506B (zh) * | 2015-03-31 | 2019-03-26 | 天津大学 | 基于局部集成学习的短期风速预报方法 |
CN106503792B (zh) * | 2016-10-25 | 2018-12-18 | 西安科技大学 | 一种基于自适应模块化神经网络的瓦斯浓度预测方法 |
DE102017129299B4 (de) | 2017-12-08 | 2022-12-08 | Institut Für Luft- Und Kältetechnik Gemeinnützige Gmbh | Verfahren zur lokalen Wetterprognose |
CN107909227B (zh) * | 2017-12-20 | 2022-07-15 | 北京金风慧能技术有限公司 | 超短期预测风电场功率的方法、装置及风力发电机组 |
CN112801332B (zh) * | 2020-11-18 | 2024-03-26 | 国网江苏省电力有限公司江阴市供电分公司 | 一种基于灰度共生矩阵的短期风速预测方法 |
CN113779101B (zh) * | 2021-11-10 | 2022-03-18 | 北京航空航天大学 | 一种基于深度神经网络的时序集合推荐系统和方法 |
CN115689061B (zh) * | 2022-12-29 | 2023-03-17 | 北京东润环能科技股份有限公司 | 风电超短期功率预测方法及相关设备 |
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CN102880810B (zh) * | 2012-10-25 | 2015-07-15 | 山东电力集团公司电力科学研究院 | 基于时间序列和神经网络法的风电功率预测方法 |
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- 2012-10-25 CN CN201210413575.7A patent/CN102880810B/zh active Active
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CN102102626A (zh) * | 2011-01-30 | 2011-06-22 | 华北电力大学 | 风电场短期功率预测方法 |
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Cited By (13)
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WO2014063436A1 (zh) * | 2012-10-25 | 2014-05-01 | 国网山东省电力公司电力科学研究院 | 基于时间序列和神经网络法的风电功率预测方法 |
CN103235984B (zh) * | 2013-04-27 | 2015-12-09 | 国家电网公司 | 风电场出力的纵向时刻概率分布计算方法 |
CN103235984A (zh) * | 2013-04-27 | 2013-08-07 | 国家电网公司 | 风电场出力的纵向时刻概率分布计算方法 |
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CN103489041A (zh) * | 2013-09-17 | 2014-01-01 | 国家电网公司 | 一种短期风电功率预测方法 |
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CN104376388A (zh) * | 2014-12-08 | 2015-02-25 | 国家电网公司 | 一种基于风速因子控制模型的风电超短期功率预测方法 |
CN105868559A (zh) * | 2016-03-29 | 2016-08-17 | 北京师范大学 | 一种大气颗粒物质量浓度的拟合方法 |
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CN110032555A (zh) * | 2019-04-16 | 2019-07-19 | 上海建科工程咨询有限公司 | 一种神经网络塔吊风险预测方法及系统 |
CN110263915A (zh) * | 2019-05-31 | 2019-09-20 | 广东工业大学 | 一种基于深度信念网络的风电功率预测方法 |
CN113343562A (zh) * | 2021-05-26 | 2021-09-03 | 国网天津市电力公司电力科学研究院 | 一种基于混合建模策略的风机功率预测方法及系统 |
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