CN102289570B - Flood forecast method based on rainfall-runoff-flood routing calculation - Google Patents
Flood forecast method based on rainfall-runoff-flood routing calculation Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of combination of a flood forecast and a computer and aims to provide a method for comprehensively forecasting a flood in a drainage basin by using a plurality of models based on rainfall-runoff-flood routing calculation. The method comprises the following steps of: integrating hydrological data according to standards and requirements of a distributed hydrological model and a hydrodynamic force model; setting corresponding parameter values according to a standard and a requirement of model parameters; performing a flood routing process by using the models; and comparing and calculating water level forecast data and warning water level data of key nodes of each riverway in the drainage basin, and issuing a result. By the method, the flood forecast of each point can be realized conveniently according to an actually measured rain and water condition. During calculation, the flood forecast is not limited by a landform scale and a complicated degree; natural phenomena are described by applying basic physical laws (such as mass conservation, momentum conservation, energy conservation and the like); compared with the prior art, the method is implemented without depending on historical hydrological data and empirical formula, so that personal errors are avoided effectively; and the method is applicable to drainage basins without historical data.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the technical field that flood forecasting is combined with computing machine, be specifically related to a kind of method that multiple models utilizing rainfall-runoff-advance of freshet to calculate comprehensively carry out river basin flood forecast.
Background technology
For a long time, flood receives the extensive concern of the mankind as a kind of disaster, and people take the loss that a large amount of measure may cause to reduce flood damage.And effective flood management and scheduling will be carried out, fundamentally need to rely on accurately flood forecasting as technical support.Flood forecasting is the objective law formed according to flood, utilize the hydrology, the meteorological data (claiming hydrographic information or hydrographic data) grasped now, a certain section in forecast river (title leading time) will occur within the following regular period flow, water level process.Different according to the data of proclamation form of prediction time institute foundation, flood forecasting can be divided into hydrometeorological method, analysis method of rainfall runoff correlation and section advance of freshet method three class.Wherein hydrometeorological method mainly utilizes the meteorological element in early stage as predictor, according to change forecast rainfalls such as field of pressure, moisture field, wind fields, and then draws the result of flood forecasting; Rainfall runoff rule is according to runoff ultimate principle, by the method for a certain river cross-section peb process of Rainstorm Forecast; Advance of freshet method mainly passes through the peb process of advance of freshet algorithm forecast downstream section according to the runoff process of upstream, section section.Flood forecasting is concerned about two subject matters usually, and one is the leading time forecast, another is forecast precision.In above-mentioned three kinds of methods, the leading time of forecast successively decreases shortening successively, but forecast precision improves often successively.
Widely used in flood forecasting is at present analysis method of rainfall runoff correlation and section advance of freshet method two kinds, but two kinds of methods respectively have its weak point.
Analysis method of rainfall runoff correlation can by rainfall data prediction peb process, and what application was more at present is hydrology numerical model, and these models, under specific time or regional condition, are applicable to the scientific research that do not require procedural details, internal mechanism and engineering practice.But the shortcoming of these models lacks solid physical basis, use experience formula in a lot of particular procedures, the inherent mechanism of spontaneous phenomenon cannot be described, also the true hydrologic process in basin can not just be reappeared completely, error in simulation and forecast is also just inevitable, and its range of application is restricted.In addition when applying, though the parameter in this class model has certain physical significance, but being difficult to direct reckoning, needing, according to basin rate of discharge data calibration, generally speaking to compare and depend on history hydrographic data and experimental formula.This deficiency also makes the method be restricted in the application in the basin lacking history hydrographic data.Generally speaking, this method has longer leading time, but slightly not enough to the simulation precision producing period of confluxing.
Section advance of freshet method forecasts the peb process in downstream by upper river flow, waterlevel data, and leading time of its forecast is shorter, is not enough to the requirement meeting flood forecasting in some cases, but its forecast precision comparatively analysis method of rainfall runoff correlation is higher.The basic foundation of this method is Saint-venant Equations, and method relatively more conventional at present first simplifies Saint-venant Equations, and then solve.The great advantage of this method be simply experience and real-time information incorporated, less to river topography data requirement in addition.But this also brings it not enough simultaneously, at more and more significant present of the effect of human activity, especially the enforcement of the hydraulic engineering such as river course upper storage reservoir, dam, river topography is difficult to remain unchanged, and river feature is once change, change the hydrology natural law sought by the observation of various hydrographic features, destroy consistance and the representativeness of original hydrologic data, hydrology phenomenon is changed.This method, to the quality of history hydrologic data and representational dependence, limits the precision of its forecast result.
Summary of the invention
The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is, overcome exist in advance of freshet process in rainfall-runoff yield-river course in simulation basin personal error, spontaneous phenomenon is too simplified, to the history hydrologic data too problem such as dependence.The object of this invention is to provide a kind of method utilizing multiple model comprehensively to carry out flood forecasting, thus according to Basin Rainfall and initial, boundary condition, flood motion conditions can be simulated in advance, prior estimation is made to big flood.
The Flood Forecasting Method calculated based on rainfall-runoff-advance of freshet provided by the invention, comprises the following steps:
(1) data integration
According to the specification and requirement of hydrological distribution model and hydrodynamic model, the terrain data in basin, soil data and hydrographic data are calculated to flood forecasting and carries out integrated process, determine to be supplied to parameter;
Wherein, terrain data comprises digital elevation map and the network of waterways and river course physical dimension, and soil data comprises soil class and distribution thereof, land use data, and hydrographic data comprises the time series data of rainfall and runoff;
(2) parameter is determined
Data in step (1) are simulated last, the determination of starting condition, boundary condition and rain fall, and according to the specification and requirement of model parameter, corresponding parametric values to be set;
Wherein, simulation lasts the total duration referring to that flood forecasting calculates;
The definition of soil mass property is carried out in the determination of the starting condition region comprised for different soils classification respectively;
The determination of boundary condition comprises the exit position coordinate in setup algorithm basin, is specially most downstream, river in basin, and the definition to river course size;
The determination of rain fall comprises rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, rainfall region, is specifically obtained by actual measurement rainfall data;
(3) model calculates
After model calculating section receiving parameter determining section output parameter value, hydrological distribution model is first used to obtain calculating flow, the waterlevel data of each headwater and joint in basin; Then utilize based on the advance of freshet process in the hydrodynamic model calculating river course of Saint-venant Equations, water level, the flow delta data in time of each point in the river course in output calculating basin;
(4) result is issued
Relatively calculate Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall data and the warning line data of Nei Ge river course, basin key node, if forecast water level is greater than warning line, think this node generation flood; If forecast water level is less than or equal to warning line, then think that this node flood can not occur.
The invention has the beneficial effects as follows:
Relative to prior art, adopt the inventive method, can easily according to the flood forecasting of surveying rain, regimen carries out each point.Do not limit by landform scale and complexity in computation process, and use basic physical law (mass conservation, momentum conservation, energy conservation etc.) to describe spontaneous phenomenon, comparatively speaking need not depend on history hydrographic data and experimental formula, efficiently avoid personal error, and be applicable to the basin lacking historical data.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the structural representation that the present invention is based on the Flood Forecasting Method that rainfall-runoff-advance of freshet calculates;
Fig. 2 is the area schematic of the invention process case;
Fig. 3 is that monitored upstream station, Nei Shangbu river, the region water level of the invention process case is along time-varying process figure;
Fig. 4 is that monitored down station, Nei Shangbu river, the region water level of the invention process case is along time-varying process figure.
Embodiment
The technical solution adopted in the present invention utilizes the computing method of be coupled distributed model (InHM) and a hydrodynamic model to carry out flood forecasting, the method comprises rainfall-runoff process and advance of freshet calculates two modules, realize by the miscarriage of rainfall digital simulation basin internal diameter raw, and then advance of freshet calculating is carried out to downstream river course, obtain possibility and the computation process of possibility period of respective point generation flood hazard in zoning.Implement according to following steps:
(1) data integration: the various data informations obtained are processed, make it meet the specification and requirement of model use, wherein various data information comprises the basic document in the basins such as watershed unit relief data, land use data, soil texture data, rainfall data, footpath flow data.
(2) parameter is determined: receive the data that data integration exports, the parameters needed for Confirming model.
(3) model calculates: the parameters value exported based on step 2, utilize hydrological distribution model (InHM model), carry out rainfall-runoff simulation and forecast, export the spatial and temporal distributions information of each hydrology variable (flow, the depth of water, flow velocity etc.) in rainfall.Again based on each hydrology variable, utilize hydrodynamic model, carry out advance of freshet in river course and calculate, export flood forecasting result.
(4) evaluation of result: the flood forecasting result receiving previous step gained, carries out evaluation checking, if meet accuracy requirement, enters next step; If do not meet accuracy requirement, return step (2).
(5) result is issued: compare the Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall result of forecast area and corresponding warning line, judges whether the possibility of generation flood hazard.
As Fig. 1, the present invention includes data integration, parameter is determined, model calculates, result verification, result issue this five steps.Below this five steps is described in detail.
(1) data integration
Data integration mainly, according to the specification and requirement of hydrological distribution model (InHM) and hydrodynamic model, calculates the terrain data in basin, soil data and hydrographic data to flood forecasting and processes, determine to be supplied to parameter.Wherein, terrain data comprises digital elevation map (DEM) and the network of waterways and river course physical dimension.According to these data, generate the basin 3D grid ticking network of waterways distribution, and riverbed, river course rectangular node.Soil data mainly comprises soil class and distribution thereof, land use data.Hydrographic data comprises the time series data of rainfall and runoff.
(2) parameter is determined
Parameter is determined mainly, to the data in step (1), carry out simulating last, the determination of starting condition, boundary condition and rain fall, and needed for model parameter setting, corresponding parametric values to be determined.
Wherein, simulation lasts the total duration referring to that flood forecasting calculates.
The definition of soil mass property is carried out in the determination of the starting condition region comprised for different soils classification respectively.Specifically have: earth's surface Manning coefficient, soil characteristic parameter of curve, soil porosity, soil saturation water guide degree, initial water content and the parameter such as river course physical dimension and channel roughness.Wherein soil porosity, soil saturation water guide degree, initial water content and river course physical dimension are obtained by measured data.Earth's surface Manning coefficient calculates (this formula derives from Gabet E J andDunne T, 2003) by following formula:
In formula (1), a is earth's surface Manning coefficient; C
vfor vegetation cover rate, represent with decimal form, e is the end of natural logarithm, and it uses numerical value to be 2.718;
Soil characteristic curve is obtained by Van Genuchten method, its computing formula following (this formula derives from VanGenuchten M T, 1980):
In formula (2), θ is soil volumetric water content; θ
rfor residual moisture content; θ
sfor saturation moisture content; H is capillary attraction, and unit is cm; α, m and n are respectively three constants relevant to pore air pressure and pore-size.
Channel roughness parameter, then on the basis that above parameter is determined, obtains according to actual measurement rainfall, runoff data calibration.
The determination of boundary condition comprises the exit position coordinate in setup algorithm basin, is specially most downstream, river in basin, and the definition to river course size.
The determination of rain fall comprises rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, rainfall region, is specifically obtained by actual measurement rainfall data.
(3) model calculates
After model calculating section receiving parameter determining section output parameter value, point two model sequence are simulated.
(3.1) hydrological distribution model (InHM)
InHM model is the Distributed Hydrological response model of a physically based deformation concept, and its particular content can see paper VanderKwaak (1999).
The object that InHM modeling calculates is the evolution obtaining runoff yield under rainfall operating mode in basin, specifically obtains the spatial and temporal distributions information of each hydrology variable (as flow, the depth of water, flow velocity etc.).In simulations, as the Distributed Hydrological numerical model of physically based deformation concept, reduce the personal error that experimental formula etc. is brought, simulation process is conformed to actual natural process as far as possible.The process mainly considered hydrology response simulation includes rainfall, groundwater flow (saturated/unsaturation), rainwash, the interaction of earth's surface/underground water and evapotranspiration.Export data and comprise the flow, the waterlevel data that calculate each headwater and joint in basin.
(3.2) hydrodynamic model
The hydrodynamic model that the present invention utilizes is physically based deformation process, mainly utilizes Saint-venant Equations to calculate, and its particular content can see paper He Zhiguo (2008), and object calculates the advance of freshet process in river course.
Receive flow, the waterlevel data at each sub basin outlet river course place that a upper model InHM exports, the branch afflux data in calculating as river flood evolution.Water level, the flow delta data in time of each point in the river course calculating basin is exported after calculating.
(4) result verification
Receive model and calculate gained waterlevel data and existing measured water level data, carry out analog result precision evaluation checking.Precision evaluation is divided into flood forcast index and flood forecasting qualification rate two parts, carries out the evaluation of single game forecast result precision, and carry out the overall evaluation by flood forecasting qualification rate to all plays by flood forcast index.
(4.1) flood forcast index
In the present invention, flood forcast index adopts absolute error.Computing method are that the model calculation value of water level deducts measured value, and take absolute value.According to the requirement of " Hydrological Information and Forecasting specification " (SL250-2000), when this absolute error is less than 20% of water level actual measurement luffing, think that this forecast is qualified forecast.
(4.2) flood forecasting qualification rate
The number of times of qualified forecast is qualification rate with the percentage of the ratio of forecast play total degree, and it represents repeatedly forecasts overall precision level, and its expression formula is as follows:
In formula (4), QR is qualification rate; N is qualified forecast number of times; M is forecast total degree.
If flood forecasting qualification rate is more than or equal to 50, then enter next step; If be less than 50, then get back to second step, redefine parameter value.
(5) result is issued
In analog result after precision test, advance of freshet result is issued.Relatively calculate Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall data and the warning line data of Nei Ge river course, basin key node, if forecast water level is greater than warning line, think this node generation flood; If forecast water level is less than or equal to warning line, then think that this node flood can not occur.
Application example:
Little for Hangzhou of mountain area block small watershed, introduces the enforcement and control of the Flood Forecasting Method calculated based on rainfall-runoff-advance of freshet below.
First data integration is carried out.Generate 3D grid by the dem data of little and mountain area block small watershed, and according to the distribution of the network of waterways in this basin, grid ticks the network of waterways.Be divided into massif, residential quarter, river and highway four kinds of topographic(al) features according to the land utilization in this basin, as shown in Figure 2, massif district is mainly positioned at basin upstream portion, You Liangtiao highway, and residential location is in river periphery.Arrange the vegetation coverage under four kinds of landform and soil porosity, saturated water guide degree, characteristic curve, initial water content data respectively.Arrange the rainfall data in basin and footpath, existing upper river flow data.River course grid is generated according to river course physical dimension.
Parameter is determined, by the data obtained in data integration step, sets the parameter of corresponding realistic situation respectively.Simulation last by beginning rainfall to rainfall stopping latter three days, totally five days.During initial condition parameters is determined, kind of the landform of three except river is set, respectively in table 1.The initial water level in river is set as 40 meters.Channel roughness coefficient is obtained by calibration.In boundary condition, set this basin y coordinate be 0 earth's surface place as outlet, see shown in accompanying drawing 2.In condition of raining, have in 5 regions and have rainfall, respectively corresponding rainfall intensity and rainfall duration are set to these 5 regions.
Table 1. parameter is determined
Model calculates, and by the computing of InHM model, obtains the runoff process in this basin, exports the water level of the source in each river and joint, flow along the change procedure data of time.Using the hydrographic data of gained as the river course water condition entry in hydrodynamic model, carry out river flood evolution calculating, the water level exporting each point in river course, along time-varying process line data, for upper pond level monitoring station, Nei Shangbu river, basin, is shown in accompanying drawing 3.
Result verification, calculates the absolute error having each point of measured data to export data.Data are sequence herein, therefore calculate its mean absolute error, with accompanying drawing 3 data instance, calculating its water level actual measurement luffing is 0.7m, mean absolute error is 0.044, then mean absolute error is less than 20% (equaling 0.14) of luffing, and namely the forecast of this place is qualified forecast.To all nodes having measured data, calculate its qualification rate;
Qualification rate can be obtained
Qualification rate is greater than 50% herein, therefore enters step; If this qualification rate is less than 50%, thinks that this computational accuracy does not meet the demands, get back to second step, reaffirm the value of parameters.
Result is issued, and after computational accuracy meets the demands, judges the waterlevel data of the node carrying out flood forecasting, compares the size of its warning line corresponding to each point.For level of tail water monitoring station, river, port in accompanying drawing 4 data, this warning line is 3.95m, then water level has exceeded warning line these after starting computing time the 903rd minute to 1340 minutes periods, thinks that this point may occur dangerous situation within this period, should be noted that flood control.
In sum, the Flood Forecasting Method calculated based on rainfall-runoff-advance of freshet of the present invention, easily and effectively can provide flood forecasting according to each point in actual measurement rain, the regimen river course that is basin, judge whether each point water level rises above the warning line, and the period of dangerous situation may be occurred.
Claims (1)
1., based on the Flood Forecasting Method that rainfall-runoff-advance of freshet calculates, comprise the following steps:
(1) data integration
According to the specification and requirement of hydrological distribution model and hydrodynamic model, the terrain data in basin, soil data and hydrographic data are calculated to flood forecasting and carries out integrated process, to be supplied to parameter determining step;
Wherein, terrain data comprises digital elevation map and the network of waterways and river course physical dimension, and soil data comprises soil class and distribution thereof, land use data, and hydrographic data comprises the time series data of rainfall and runoff;
(2) parameter is determined
Data in step (1) are simulated last, the determination of starting condition, boundary condition and rain fall, and according to the specification and requirement of hydrological distribution model and hydrodynamic model parameter, corresponding parametric values to be set;
Wherein, simulation lasts the total duration referring to that flood forecasting calculates; The definition of soil mass property is carried out in the determination of the starting condition region comprised for different soils classification respectively; The determination of boundary condition comprises the exit position coordinate in setup algorithm basin, is specially most downstream, river in basin, and the definition to river course size; The determination of rain fall comprises rainfall intensity, rainfall duration, rainfall region, is specifically obtained by actual measurement rainfall data;
The determination of starting condition specifically has: the determination of earth's surface Manning coefficient, soil characteristic parameter of curve, soil porosity, soil saturation water guide degree, initial water content and river course physical dimension and channel roughness parameter; Wherein soil porosity, soil saturation water guide degree, initial water content and river course physical dimension are obtained by measured data; In addition, earth's surface Manning coefficient is calculated by following formula:
In formula (1), a is earth's surface Manning coefficient; C
vfor vegetation cover rate, represent with decimal form, e is the end of natural logarithm, and it uses numerical value to be 2.718;
Soil characteristic curve is obtained by Van Genuchten method, and its computing formula is as follows:
In formula (2), θ is soil volumetric water content; θ
rfor residual moisture content; θ
sfor saturation moisture content; H is capillary attraction, and unit is cm; α, m and n are respectively three constants relevant to pore air pressure and pore-size;
Channel roughness parameter, then on the basis that above parameter is determined, obtains according to actual measurement rainfall, runoff data calibration;
(3) model calculates
After the parameter value that model calculation procedure receiving parameter determining step exports, first using hydrological distribution model---InHM model calculates rainfall-runoff process; In the simulation process of InHM model, consider that object comprises rainfall, saturated groundwater flow and Unsaturated groundwater stream, rainwash, the interaction of earth's surface and underground water and evapotranspiration; InHM model exports flow, the waterlevel data that data comprise each headwater and joint in basin;
Then, utilize hydrodynamic model---the advance of freshet process in Saint-venant Equations physically based deformation process computation river course, be specially: the flow, the waterlevel data that receive each sub basin outlet river course place that InHM model exports, the branch afflux data in calculating as river flood evolution; Water level, the flow delta data in time of each point in the river course calculating basin is exported after calculating;
(4) result verification
Receive model calculation procedure gained waterlevel data and existing measured water level data, carry out analog result precision evaluation checking; Described precision evaluation checking is divided into flood forcast index and flood forecasting qualification rate two parts: the evaluation carrying out single game forecast result precision by flood forcast index, and carries out the overall evaluation by flood forecasting qualification rate to all plays;
Described flood forcast index system absolute error, its computing method are that the model calculation value of water level deducts measured value, and take absolute value; When this absolute error is less than 20% of water level actual measurement luffing, think that this forecast is qualified forecast;
In the calculating of described flood forecasting qualification rate:
Make the number of times of qualified forecast be qualification rate with the percentage of the ratio of forecast play total degree, it represents repeatedly forecasts overall precision level, and its expression formula is as follows:
In formula (4), QR is qualification rate; N is qualified forecast number of times; M is forecast total degree;
If flood forecasting qualification rate is more than or equal to 50, then enter step (5); If be less than 50, then get back to step (2), redefine parameter value;
(5) result is issued
Relatively calculate Interpretation Method of Area Rainfall data and the warning line data of Nei Ge river course, basin key node, if forecast water level is greater than warning line, think this node generation flood; If forecast water level is less than or equal to warning line, then think that this node flood can not occur.
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