CN105303264A - Flood forecasting method under influences of human activities - Google Patents
Flood forecasting method under influences of human activities Download PDFInfo
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- CN105303264A CN105303264A CN201510785462.3A CN201510785462A CN105303264A CN 105303264 A CN105303264 A CN 105303264A CN 201510785462 A CN201510785462 A CN 201510785462A CN 105303264 A CN105303264 A CN 105303264A
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
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- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
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- Y02A10/40—Controlling or monitoring, e.g. of flood or hurricane; Forecasting, e.g. risk assessment or mapping
Abstract
The invention discloses a flood forecasting method under influences of human activities. A conventional flood forecasting method is improved from three links: history data analysis, human activity influence analysis and standard determination, and forecasting model parameter calibration which influence flood forecasting work precision, and the purpose of improving the flood forecasting work precision is achieved. The influences of human activities are quantificationally assessed and analyzed on the base of qualitative analysis, and different strategies and methods are adopted for different influencing factors, so that the practicalness is relatively high, and the method system is complete, etc.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to Flood Forecasting Method under a kind of effect of human activity condition.
Background technology
Flood forecasting is mainly according to early stage and the current information such as the hydrology, meteorology; disclose and predict the generation of flood and the applied science technology of change procedure thereof; it is one of important content of nonstructural measures of flood control; directly for flood fighting, water resources rational use and protection, hydraulic engineering construction and regulation and operation manage, and the safety in production service of industrial or agricultural.The Flood Forecasting Method extensively adopted at present is physical conceptual model, namely according to the rainfall of actual measurement, the formation of evaporation data and watershed system situation runoff simulation, evolution process, the discharge process adopting model to calculate is the water process under natural condition, do not consider that in basin, people is for storing stagnant impact of Denging, in actual applications, along with the development of economic level in basin, the impact of mankind's activity on natural basin grows with each passing day, application classic method is more and more difficult to obtain reasonable operation forecast precision, on the safety of reservoir cross flood and emerging profit need cause more serious impact.
Mankind's activity mainly impacts from three aspects Precision of Flood Forecast, the impact that in basin, engineering measure causes on the one hand, along with improving constantly of basin water resources development and utilization level, the continuous reservoir impoundment power generation of various large, medium and small type reservoir, simultaneously some small-sized dykes also put into operation not stopping construction, and single dyke impact is limited, but dyke One's name is legion, and store the time of letting out and there are differences, the natural birth of watershed is confluxed and can be caused material impact; On the other hand that land surface condition changes the impact caused, due to improving constantly of river basin development producing level, the continuous lifting of the level of urbanization, the evaporation in original basin and product rule of confluxing there occurs many changes; Also has an aspect, because hydrological telemetry system station net is along with the impact of mankind's activity, constantly carry out the increase of survey station, cancel, relocate and survey station fault causes the phenomenons such as historical summary disappearance, also can affect flood forecasting scheme fitting effect, thus affect flood forecasting homework precision further.
Because the flood forecasting under effect of human activity condition has stronger application demand and researching value, cause the research interest of domestic and international numerous scholars, study hotspot main at present concentrates on two aspects, on the one hand from mode, method and influence degree that the angle research and analysis mankind's activity of Runoff Formation Principle and large-scale hydrology affects flood forecasting achievement; Under effect of human activity condition, how to improve Precision of Flood Forecast from the angle of engineering practice on the other hand, comprise parameter rating of the model method and real-time correction of error strategy.These achievement in research qualitative examination are many generally, and quantitative examination is few; Influence degree research is many, and practical application is few; Partial solution is many, and total solution is few.
Flood forecasting actual job precision under effect of human activity condition, by the impact of multiple link, comprises historical summary reduction and multiple link such as process, Flood Forecasting Model parameter calibration, regimen station net configuration, effect of human activity process, real-time correction of error.The present invention to propose the Flood Forecasting Method a kind of effect of human activity condition based on mantle upwelling from the angle of application to engineering practice for humid region, the method is assessed the effect of human activity quantitatively and is analyzed on basis qualitatively, and take different processing policies and method for various influence factor, there is the features such as practicality is comparatively strong, method system is complete.
Summary of the invention
Object: in order to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, the invention provides Flood Forecasting Method under a kind of effect of human activity condition, in order to improve basin Precision of Flood Forecast under effect of human activity condition, thus improves reservoir operation and to become more meticulous level.
Technical scheme: for solving the problems of the technologies described above, the technical solution used in the present invention is:
Flood Forecasting Method under a kind of effect of human activity condition, is characterized in that, comprise the following steps:
Step 1) historical summary analyzing and processing: carry out arranging, reducing and pre-service according to historical summary situation;
Step 2) effect of human activity analysis: carry out classification process according to effect of human activity factor;
Step 3) programming and real-time prediction: optimizing application method carries out model parameter primary election, for large reservoir regulate and store and initial value that model calculates carry out setting according to the mode of the effect of human activity or carry out according to rule just fixed.
Described step 1) historical summary analyzing and processing, specifically refers to:
For specific basin, first history watermark protocol data is collected, simultaneously sorting-out in statistics is carried out for relocate situation, survey station failure condition of the station net alteration within the scope of historical summary, survey station, flood data extracts and rain flood correspondence analysis is carried out according to basin water system situation, employing closing on the stand reduction alternative, station weighted mean is replaced, flood information station correction serial of methods carries out watermark protocol data, extension, interpolation and arrangement around, the consistance before and after maintenance data and accuracy.
Described step 2) effect of human activity analysis, specifically refer to:
Effect of human activity factor in watershed watermark protocol Data acquisition, time range carries out investigation statistics, is carrying out, on the basis of finishing analysis, the effect of human activity being summed up as three classes to specific basin:
The first kind belongs to large reservoir, this kind of reservoir control area is comparatively large, the regulating power that reservoir tool is stronger, and installed capacity of power station is also comparatively large and in regional power grid, assume responsibility for certain frequency modulation peak regulation task, it stores lets out regular poor, all has an impact to the flood of various magnitude simultaneously; This kind of Reservoir Construction is provided with more complete waterpower scheduling automation, accesses below drainage area that its generation schedule and storage outflow can control it produce good flood forecasting effect by electrical network;
Equations of The Second Kind belongs to Small Reservoir in basin, this kind of reservoir quantity is bigger, usually local management is belonged to, reservoir has certain regulating power, more impact is had on the forecast precision of medium and small flood, under existence conditions, usually cannot obtain its reservoir operation information, but it stores to let out and has certain regularity, multiple reservoir can be joined together adopt the mode of virtual reservoir to simulate its operation rule;
3rd class belongs to little reservoir and dyke class, and this kind of job facilities Regulation capacity is less, but One's name is legion, distributed areas are comparatively extensive, to little flood and flood first flood influence just comparatively large, this kind of impact can process by artificially setting initial parameter.
Described step 3) programming and real-time prediction, specifically refer to:
For specific basin, on the basis of data compilation and reduction, in conjunction with the investigation and analysis conclusion of effect of human activity situation, molecule basin and unit carry out parameter rating of the model, after forming parameter calibration achievement, carry out station net according to station, current basin net situation and arrange, carry out Real-time Flood Forecasting.
Beneficial effect: Flood Forecasting Method under effect of human activity condition provided by the invention, for specific basin, on the basis of data compilation and reduction, in conjunction with the investigation and analysis conclusion of effect of human activity situation, molecule basin and unit carry out parameter rating of the model, after forming parameter calibration achievement, carry out station net according to station, current basin net situation and arrange, carry out Real-time Flood Forecasting.By every factor of flood forecasting homework precision under analysis effect of human activity condition, quantitative criterion division is carried out on basis qualitatively, and take processing policy and method pointedly, define Flood Forecasting Method under a kind of effect of human activity condition, effectively improve flood forecasting homework precision.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of mantle upwelling;
Fig. 2 is process flow diagram of the present invention.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with specific embodiment, the present invention is further described.
Apply be conceptual hydrological model the most widely in flood forecasting, wherein Xinanjiang model is due to clear concept and strong adaptability, obtains and apply the most widely in engineering practice, and the hydrologic forecast model of this method application is mantle upwelling.
Xinanjiang model is a complete Rainfall Runoff Model, and its runoff yield part is natural storage model.May be used for humid and semi-humid region.When drainage area is less, Xinanjiang model adopts lumped model, when area is larger, adopts subdivision model.Its important feature is three points, i.e. subdivision, point water source, stage by stage.Subdivision is that whole basin is divided into many unit, so mainly in order to consider rainfall impact pockety, is secondly also convenient to difference and the change thereof of considering land surface condition; Namely in earth's surface, earth, underground point water source refers to and runoff is divided into three kinds of compositions, and, the conflux networks at three kinds of water sources is different, and earth's surface is the fastest, underground is the slowest; Refer to stage by stage and Process of Confluence is divided into slope concentration stage and concentration of river network stage, reason is feature difference of confluxing in two stages, and in hillside fields, various water sources conflux networks is different, in the network of waterways then without this difference.
Water source, the Xinanjiang River three model forms primarily of four parts: (1) evapotranspiration calculates, and evapotranspiration is divided into upper strata, lower floor and deep layer; (2) Runoff calculation, the runoff yield part of model is exactly natural storage model.But adding a parameter IMP, is the ratio of basin Permeable stratum area.This parameter is inessential at humid region, can; At Semi-humid area, due to drier, this parameter is just necessary.(3) water source divides, and adopt free-water sluice reservoir to carry out water source division, water source is divided in earth's surface, earth, three kinds, underground runoff; (4) runoff concentration calculation, confluxes and is divided into domatic, two stages of concentration of river network.In watershed concentration, the employing empirical unit hydrograph that confluxes of surface runoff, and suppose that the dimensionless unit line on each unit basin is identical, make relatively simple for structure, dimensionless unit line is multiplied by surface runoff and is multiplied by drainage area deeply again, obtains out of flow procedure.Make the dimensionless unit line in unit basin identical, first require that topographic condition is consistent, next requires that drainage area is close.Therefore, when division unit basin, each piece of area difference should be made as far as possible not too big, and the process flow diagram of mantle upwelling as shown in Figure 1.
The factor affecting flood precision or operation forecast level is a lot, comprise the height of development and utilization level in historical summary sequence queue size, the authenticity of data, the rationality of Forecast of Water Regime station net layout and density, the operation forecast experience level of personnel, basin, complete flood forecasting and generally comprise that historical summary is compiled, three processes such as programming and operation forecast calculation, wherein Working Out The Scheme is especially remarkable to the Accuracy of flood forecasting.
As shown in Figure 2, Flood Forecasting Method under a kind of effect of human activity condition provided by the invention, based on mantle upwelling, arrange from historical summary, effect of human activity analysis and classification process, parameter rating of the model three aspects complete process to the effect of human activity, thus improve flood forecasting operation forecast precision; Comprise the following steps:
1) historical summary analyzing and processing: for specific basin, first history watermark protocol data is collected, simultaneously for the station net alteration within the scope of historical summary, survey station is relocated situation, survey station failure condition carries out sorting-out in statistics, flood data extracts and rain flood correspondence analysis is carried out according to basin water system situation, employing closes on station and substitutes, station weighted mean displacement around, the serial of methods such as flood information station correction carry out the reduction of watermark protocol data, extension, interpolation and arrangement, consistance before and after maintenance data and accuracy, reduction treatment is carried out to the effect of human activity simultaneously, comprise and to cause regulating and storing after construction of reservoir.
2) effect of human activity analysis: the effect of human activity factor in watershed watermark protocol Data acquisition, time range carries out investigation statistics, specific basin is being carried out on the basis of finishing analysis, the effect of human activity is summed up as three classes: a class belongs to large reservoir, this kind of reservoir control area is larger, the regulating power that reservoir tool is stronger, installed capacity of power station is also comparatively large and in regional power grid, assume responsibility for certain frequency modulation peak regulation task, and it stores lets out regular poor, all has an impact to the flood of various magnitude simultaneously; More complete waterpower scheduling automation often built by this kind of reservoir, accesses below drainage area that its generation schedule and storage outflow can control it produce good flood forecasting effect by electrical network; Equations of The Second Kind reservoir belongs to Small Reservoir in basin, this kind of reservoir quantity is bigger, usually local management is belonged to, reservoir has certain regulating power, more impact is had on the forecast precision of medium and small flood, under existence conditions, usually cannot obtain its reservoir operation information, but it stores to let out and has certain regularity, multiple reservoir can be joined together adopt the mode of virtual reservoir to simulate its operation rule; 3rd class belongs to little reservoir and dyke class, although this kind of job facilities Regulation capacity is less, One's name is legion, distributed areas are comparatively extensive, usually comparatively large to first flood influence at the beginning of little flood and flood, this kind of impact can be processed by artificial setting initial parameter.
3) programming and real-time prediction: for specific basin, on the basis of data compilation and reduction, in conjunction with the investigation and analysis conclusion of effect of human activity situation, molecule basin and unit carry out parameter rating of the model, after forming parameter calibration achievement, carry out station net according to station, current basin net situation and arrange, carry out Real-time Flood Forecasting.
The above is only the preferred embodiment of the present invention; be noted that for those skilled in the art; under the premise without departing from the principles of the invention, can also make some improvements and modifications, these improvements and modifications also should be considered as protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (4)
1. a Flood Forecasting Method under effect of human activity condition, is characterized in that, comprises the following steps:
Step 1) historical summary analyzing and processing: carry out arranging, reducing and pre-service according to historical summary situation;
Step 2) effect of human activity analysis: carry out classification process according to effect of human activity factor;
Step 3) programming and real-time prediction: optimizing application method carries out model parameter primary election, for large reservoir regulate and store and initial value that model calculates carry out setting according to the mode of the effect of human activity or carry out according to rule just fixed.
2. Flood Forecasting Method under effect of human activity condition according to claim 1, is characterized in that: described step 1) historical summary analyzing and processing, specifically refers to:
For specific basin, first history watermark protocol data is collected, simultaneously sorting-out in statistics is carried out for relocate situation, survey station failure condition of the station net alteration within the scope of historical summary, survey station, flood data extracts and rain flood correspondence analysis is carried out according to basin water system situation, employing closing on the stand reduction alternative, station weighted mean is replaced, flood information station correction serial of methods carries out watermark protocol data, extension, interpolation and arrangement around, the consistance before and after maintenance data and accuracy.
3. Flood Forecasting Method under effect of human activity condition according to claim 1, is characterized in that: described step 2) effect of human activity analysis, specifically refer to:
Effect of human activity factor in watershed watermark protocol Data acquisition, time range carries out investigation statistics, is carrying out, on the basis of finishing analysis, the effect of human activity being summed up as three classes to specific basin:
The first kind belongs to large reservoir, this kind of reservoir control area is comparatively large, the regulating power that reservoir tool is stronger, and installed capacity of power station is also comparatively large and in regional power grid, assume responsibility for certain frequency modulation peak regulation task, it stores lets out regular poor, all has an impact to the flood of various magnitude simultaneously; This kind of Reservoir Construction is provided with more complete waterpower scheduling automation, accesses below drainage area that its generation schedule and storage outflow can control it produce good flood forecasting effect by electrical network;
Equations of The Second Kind belongs to Small Reservoir in basin, this kind of reservoir quantity is bigger, usually local management is belonged to, reservoir has certain regulating power, more impact is had on the forecast precision of medium and small flood, under existence conditions, usually cannot obtain its reservoir operation information, but it stores to let out and has certain regularity, multiple reservoir can be joined together adopt the mode of virtual reservoir to simulate its operation rule;
3rd class belongs to little reservoir and dyke class, and this kind of job facilities Regulation capacity is less, but One's name is legion, distributed areas are comparatively extensive, to little flood and flood first flood influence just comparatively large, this kind of impact can process by artificially setting initial parameter.
4. Flood Forecasting Method under effect of human activity condition according to claim 1, is characterized in that: described step 3) programming and real-time prediction, specifically refer to:
For specific basin, on the basis of data compilation and reduction, in conjunction with the investigation and analysis conclusion of effect of human activity situation, molecule basin and unit carry out parameter rating of the model, after forming parameter calibration achievement, carry out station net according to station, current basin net situation and arrange, carry out Real-time Flood Forecasting.
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| CN105929466A (en) * | 2016-04-14 | 2016-09-07 | 国家电网公司 | Flood forecast method dealing with influence on human activities |
| CN106650767A (en) * | 2016-09-20 | 2017-05-10 | 河海大学 | Flood forecasting method based on cluster analysis and real time correction |
| CN106803131A (en) * | 2016-12-23 | 2017-06-06 | 华中科技大学 | A kind of river flood forecasting procedure based on discrete generalized Nash Confluence Models |
| CN113723871A (en) * | 2021-11-03 | 2021-11-30 | 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 | Multi-source information-based current situation flood consistency processing method and system |
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| CN102592041A (en) * | 2011-11-14 | 2012-07-18 | 江西省电力科学研究院 | Computing method for forecasting small floods in Zhelin reservoir |
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Cited By (7)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN105929466A (en) * | 2016-04-14 | 2016-09-07 | 国家电网公司 | Flood forecast method dealing with influence on human activities |
| CN106650767A (en) * | 2016-09-20 | 2017-05-10 | 河海大学 | Flood forecasting method based on cluster analysis and real time correction |
| CN106650767B (en) * | 2016-09-20 | 2020-10-27 | 河海大学 | Flood forecasting method based on cluster analysis and real-time correction |
| CN106803131A (en) * | 2016-12-23 | 2017-06-06 | 华中科技大学 | A kind of river flood forecasting procedure based on discrete generalized Nash Confluence Models |
| CN106803131B (en) * | 2016-12-23 | 2018-03-20 | 华中科技大学 | A kind of river flood forecasting procedure based on discrete generalized Nash Confluence Models |
| CN113723871A (en) * | 2021-11-03 | 2021-11-30 | 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 | Multi-source information-based current situation flood consistency processing method and system |
| CN113723871B (en) * | 2021-11-03 | 2022-03-08 | 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 | Multi-source information-based current situation flood consistency processing method and system |
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Application publication date: 20160203 |