CN102222890A - Complex power grid cascading failure analysis method considering atrocious weather factor - Google Patents
Complex power grid cascading failure analysis method considering atrocious weather factor Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a complex power grid cascading failure analysis method considering an atrocious weather factor in the technical field of the safety protection of the power system. The method comprises the following steps: calculating a stable power flow of a power grid area to be analyzed in a preset power grid operation mode to obtain a main power-flow path of the power grid area to be analyzed; calculating a failure probability of the main power-flow path, and taking two paths with the maximum probability value as an initial failure points; judging whether a fault chain link triggers the transient stability problem, adding the initial failure point to the fault chain if the fault chain link triggers the transient stability problem; judging whether the residual grid is overloaded after the failure occurs; choosing the next failure point if the residual grid is overloaded; and taking the failure point at the moment as the last link of the failure chain to be added in the fault chain if the residual grid is not overloaded. The invention can obtain a cascading failure weak link for the whole power grid and provide an effective tool for monitoring and early warning of the power grid cascading failures.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to power system security guard technology field, relate in particular to a kind of complex electric network cascading failure analytical method of taking into account the bad weather factor.
Background technology
Electric power system is the high-order nonlinear dynamical system of a complexity; the extensive interconnected of electrical network not only can make the dynamic behaviour of electric power system complicated more; and some areas are broken down afterwards, and its scope that involves also will strengthen the easier serious accident that causes causing owing to cascading failure in succession large-area power-cuts.Local one or more the fault of electric power system, except the operational outfit fault, beyond the human operational error, bad weather also is one of major reason of can not ignore.Wide region is crossed in electric power system, and weather conditions influence the key factor of its safe operation often.The possibility that element breaks down under the severe weather conditions will increase greatly, be in for a long time in the complicated weather environment apart from ultra-high-tension power transmission line because the electric power system electric line is particularly long, and the influence that is subjected to Changes in weather of its fault is very big.Long-term operating experience shows, though the probability that bad weather occurs is not high, but the chance that each element of electrical network breaks down under severe weather conditions obviously increases, and to the huge destruction of element generation, make electrical network that multiple possibility relevant and uncorrelated fault take place and sharply raise, so-called " fault gathering " phenomenon takes place.Therefore, consider the bad weather factor in analyzing carrying out the complex electric network cascading failure mechanism of transmission, the prevention and the control of cascading failure is seemed very important.
Academia is mainly studied the electric power system cascading failure from two angles both at home and abroad at present.The one, be core with power system mesomeric state and transient analysis, study electric power system cascading failure global behavior characteristics with the behavior of particular probability descriptive system.For example OPA model, Hidden Failure model, CASCADE model etc.; The 2nd, be core with the topological structure of electric, the mechanism of transmission of cascading failure in the fragile structure of application Complex Networks Theory research electrical network and the complex electric network.Worldlet network model and do not have scale network model etc. for example.
Yet above-mentioned research is not included weather conditions within the category of model consideration, is difficult to adapt to electric network fault situation complicated and changeable under the bad weather.This method proposes to take into account the complex electric network cascading failure accident chain propagation model and the simulation algorithm of bad weather factor based on the critical thought of self-organizing.
The failure mode that statistics electrical network bad weather causes to the influence in the same area, the same channel range and the principal character of impact, and is sorted out combing under the particularly same meteorological condition; Operation characteristic and weak link under the research electrical network bad weather behind the serious cascading failure; On this basis, utilize Complex System Theory and relevant mathematical method, the mechanism that the research cascading failure takes place, the development law of analysis cascading failure; On the basis of analyzing the cascading failure origin cause of formation, research and propose the strategy that cascading failure takes place down prevention electrical network bad weather.
Summary of the invention
The objective of the invention is to, propose a kind of complex electric network cascading failure analytical method of taking into account the bad weather factor, research and analyse power grid accident probability of happening and fault cumulative effect thereof under the bad weather.
For realizing above-mentioned purpose, technical scheme provided by the invention is that a kind of complex electric network cascading failure analytical method of taking into account the bad weather factor comprises:
Step 1: set electrical network zone and power system operating mode to be analyzed;
Step 2: calculate electrical network zone to be analyzed in the stable trend of setting under the power system operating mode by the power system analysis synthesizer, obtain trend and direction, and obtain the path of controlling the trend in electrical network zone to be analyzed thus;
Step 3: calculate the probability of malfunction in the path of controlling the trend, two circuits getting the probable value maximum are as the primary fault point;
Step 4: by power system analysis synthesizer transient stability computational methods, the electrical network transient stability that carries out electrical network zone to be analyzed calculates, and obtains the stable and generator's power and angle stability Calculation result of line voltage;
Step 5: judge whether to have triggered the transient stability problem, if execution in step 9 then by accident chain link; Otherwise, execution in step 6;
Step 6: primary fault is put adding accident chain, from electrical network zone to be analyzed, faulty line is disconnected, will disconnect the back remaining electrical network as fault after remaining network;
Step 7: the trend of carrying out remaining network after the fault by the power system analysis synthesizer is calculated, and determines the direction of controlling the trend of remaining network after the fault, and whether remaining network transships after the failure judgement; If then execution in step 8; Otherwise, execution in step 9;
Step 8: according to the direction of controlling the trend of remaining network after the fault, select next fault point according to explicit triggering of accident chain link and/or implicit expression triggering mode, and step 4 as electrical network zone to be analyzed, is returned remaining network after the fault to as the primary fault point in the next fault point that will select;
Step 9: fault point that will this moment forms final accident chain, and has judged whether peace from the device action as last link adding accident chain of fault chain, if having, then carries out peace and moves from device.
The control the trend computing formula of probability of malfunction in path of described calculating is P
o(E
i)=1-e
-ptWherein, p is circuit or the failure rate of bus under bad weather,
η
iThe fault ratio under bad weather for circuit or bus; T
iBe boisterous statistical duration, T is the measurement period time,
Failure rate for circuit or bus.
Whether specifically be calculation of tidal current according to fault after remaining network to remaining network after the described failure judgement if transshipping, and seeks the circuit of thermally-stabilised nargin γ 〉=1.
The computing formula of described thermally-stabilised nargin is
Wherein, γ
M, iFor circuit i in the thermally-stabilised nargin of cascading failure m during the stage, be P
I, mFor circuit i in the meritorious trend of cascading failure m during the stage; P
I, m-1For circuit i in the meritorious trend of cascading failure m-1 during the stage;
For cascading failure takes place to m-1 during the stage, circuit L
jActive power after the fault tripping on it is transferred to the active power on the circuit i; P
I, maxBe the steady limit of the heat of circuit i.
Typical operation modes such as the present invention is big to the summer of regional power grid, the summer is little, the winter is big, the winter is little are carried out the cascading failure analysis, then can draw the cascading failure weak link of whole electrical network, for power grid cascading fault monitoring and early warning provide effective tool.
Description of drawings
Fig. 1 is a complex electric network cascading failure analytical method flow chart of taking into account the bad weather factor;
Fig. 2 is the geographical winding diagram of backlands, Henan district electrical network.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, preferred embodiment is elaborated.Should be emphasized that following explanation only is exemplary, rather than in order to limit the scope of the invention and to use.
Embodiment 1
Fig. 1 is a complex electric network cascading failure analytical method flow chart of taking into account the bad weather factor.Among Fig. 1, the complex electric network cascading failure analytical method of taking into account the bad weather factor comprises:
Step 1: set electrical network zone and power system operating mode to be analyzed.
Step 2: calculate electrical network zone to be analyzed in the stable trend of setting under the power system operating mode by the power system analysis synthesizer, obtain trend and direction, and obtain the path of controlling the trend in electrical network zone to be analyzed thus.
Step 3: calculate the probability of malfunction in the path of controlling the trend, two circuits getting the probable value maximum are as the primary fault point.
Under the different weather condition, the ratio that circuit or bus break down is:
η in the formula
iThe fault ratio under bad weather for circuit or bus; T
iBe boisterous statistical duration; T is the measurement period time; P is circuit or the failure rate of bus under bad weather;
Failure rate for circuit or bus.Obtain:
η in the formula
i, T
i,
T can be obtained by statistics, can be got the failure rate p of element under the bad weather by formula.Statistics shows that the probability that electric power system has an accident is obeyed Poisson distribution, and then transmission line or bus i are under inclement weather conditions, and the interior trouble-proof probability of t preset time is:
The probability that then breaks down is:
P
o(E
i)＝1-e
-pt
Step 4: by power system analysis synthesizer transient stability computational methods, the electrical network transient stability that carries out electrical network zone to be analyzed calculates, and obtains the stable and generator's power and angle stability Calculation result of line voltage.
Step 5: judge whether to have triggered the transient stability problem, if execution in step 9 then by accident chain link; Otherwise, execution in step 6.
Step 6: primary fault is put adding accident chain, from electrical network zone to be analyzed, faulty line is disconnected, will disconnect the back remaining electrical network as fault after remaining network.
Step 7: the trend of carrying out remaining network after the fault by the power system analysis synthesizer is calculated, and determines the direction of controlling the trend of remaining network after the fault, and whether remaining network transships after the failure judgement; If then execution in step 8; Otherwise, execution in step 9;
Whether specifically be calculation of tidal current according to fault after remaining network to remaining network after the described failure judgement if transshipping, and seeks the circuit of thermally-stabilised nargin γ 〉=1.
The computing formula of described thermally-stabilised nargin is
Wherein, γ
M, iFor circuit i in the thermally-stabilised nargin of cascading failure m during the stage, be P
I, mFor circuit i in the meritorious trend of cascading failure m during the stage; P
I, m-1For circuit i in the meritorious trend of cascading failure m-1 during the stage;
For cascading failure takes place to m-1 during the stage, circuit L
jActive power after the fault tripping on it is transferred to the active power on the circuit i; P
I, maxBe the steady limit of the heat of circuit i.
Step 8: according to the direction of controlling the trend of remaining network after the fault, select next fault point according to explicit triggering of accident chain link and/or implicit expression triggering mode, and step 4 as electrical network zone to be analyzed, is returned remaining network after the fault to as the primary fault point in the next fault point that will select.
Step 9: fault point that will this moment forms final accident chain, and has judged whether peace from the device action as last link adding accident chain of fault chain, if having, then carries out peace and moves from device.
Embodiment 2
Carry out the match simulation calculation with operational mode under the Henan Electric Power System Henan backlands district 500kV rack bad weather initiation catastrophe failure below and analyze, summary of the invention of the present invention is described further as one embodiment of the present of invention.
Henan Electric Power System is divided in Yu Bei, Yu Xi, the west, Henan, four subnets in south, Henan, and according to meteorological statistics, backlands, Henan district is the bad weather district occurred frequently winter.Propose the accident chain model and simulation algorithm carries out fault simulation to backlands, Henan district electrical network based on this method, illustrate after bad weather causes serious accident and cause the chain propagation path of fault.
Shown in the geographical winding diagram of backlands district, accompanying drawing 2 Henan electrical network, based on Henan Electric Power System big mode winter in 2010, in the NORTEL net of Henan, burnt new electrical network is mainly by 500kV Huojia County-the Huanshui River peace double loop, 500kV tower shop-Cangjie line totally three back transmission lines to peace Pu crane mains supply, promptly at first determine 500kV Huojia County-the Huanshui River peace double loop, 500kV tower shop-Cangjie line is the path of controlling the trend of peace Pu crane electrical network.Then, calculate the control the trend probability of malfunction P in path of this zone under the bad weather in conjunction with this electrical network accident treatment over the years record statistics
o(E
i), for the primary fault setting provides the data support.The meritorious trend and the contingency occurrence probability result of calculation under the bad weather of this three back transmission line are as shown in the table.
| NORTEL host trend path, Henan | Active power (MW) | P 0(E i) |
| Tower shop 500-Cangjie 500 | 898.83 | 0.743 |
| The Huanshui River peace 500I-500I of Huojia County | 847.64 | 0.513 |
| The Huanshui River peace 500II-500II of Huojia County | 853.59 | 0.513 |
Suppose that now strong wind cold wave bad weather appears in backlands, Henan district, this type of weather may cause that powerline ice-covering waves.In conjunction with circuit probability of malfunction result of calculation under the bad weather, setting backlands, Henan district 500kV tower shop-Cangjie line is first primary fault of this cascading failure emulation because of icing wind dance causes line tripping, and any rebound lock of 500kV Huojia County-the Huanshui River wire arrangement is second primary fault.Cascading failure generation this time and evolution and the steady nargin exponent gamma of the heat of initiating failure circuit in each stage
M, iSimulation result is as shown in the table.
| Faulty line | Initiating failure | γ m，i |
| Tower shop 500-Cangjie 500 | The new fiery 220-Lingshan 220 heavy duties | 0.9438 |
| 500-the Huanshui River, Huojia County peace 500I | The new fiery 220-Lingshan 220 overloads | 1.1512 |
| The new fiery 220-Lingshan 220 | New fiery 220-Tangyin 220 overloads | 1.0151 |
| The new fiery 220-Lingshan 220 | 220-Hua County, tower shop 220 overloads | 1.0974 |
| New fiery 220-Tangyin 220 overloads | Peace Pu crane area voltage unstability | - |
| 220-Hua County, tower shop 220 overloads | Peace Pu crane area voltage unstability | - |
The accident chain that simulation result obtains Henan NORTEL net is: top event (peace Pu crane area voltage unstability)=(tower shop 500-Cangjie 500) * (500-the Huanshui River, Huojia County peace 500) * (new fiery 220-Lingshan 220) * (220-Hua County, new fiery 220-Tangyin 220+ tower shop 220).
After tower shop 500-Cangjie 500 single loop lines cause the phase fault tripping operation because of icing wind dance, the heavy duty of the new fiery 220-Lingshan 220 lines but tripping operation, this moment if 500kV Huojia County-cause phase fault tripping operation, the then new fiery 220-Lingshan 220 line overload trips because of the wind dance any one time in the peace double loop of the Huanshui River; And the new fiery 220-Lingshan 220 lines tripping operations can cause that then 220 liang of loop line roads, 220-Hua County, new fiery 220-Tangyin 220 and tower shop all trip because of overload; If this two loop lines tripping operation then can cause the node voltage in peace Pu crane area and drop to fast below the 0.75p.u., cause pacifying Pu crane area power grid generation voltage unstability accident.
The accident chain that the cascading failure simulation algorithm that proposes via this method obtains is the path passage of fault propagation under the bad weather, common factor in the zone between each bar accident chain is the weak link place of electrical network, and the method provides important reference frame for the electrical network peace from the configuration of device.
The above; only for the preferable embodiment of the present invention, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and anyly is familiar with those skilled in the art in the technical scope that the present invention discloses; the variation that can expect easily or replacement all should be encompassed within protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be as the criterion with the protection range of claim.
Claims (4)
1. complex electric network cascading failure analytical method of taking into account the bad weather factor is characterized in that described method comprises:
Step 1: set electrical network zone and power system operating mode to be analyzed;
Step 2: calculate electrical network zone to be analyzed in the stable trend of setting under the power system operating mode by the power system analysis synthesizer, obtain trend and direction, and obtain the path of controlling the trend in electrical network zone to be analyzed thus;
Step 3: calculate the probability of malfunction in the path of controlling the trend, two circuits getting the probable value maximum are as the primary fault point;
Step 4: by power system analysis synthesizer transient stability computational methods, the electrical network transient stability that carries out electrical network zone to be analyzed calculates, and obtains the stable and generator's power and angle stability Calculation result of line voltage;
Step 5: judge whether to have triggered the transient stability problem, if execution in step 9 then by accident chain link; Otherwise, execution in step 6;
Step 6: primary fault is put adding accident chain, from electrical network zone to be analyzed, faulty line is disconnected, will disconnect the back remaining electrical network as fault after remaining network;
Step 7: the trend of carrying out remaining network after the fault by the power system analysis synthesizer is calculated, and determines the direction of controlling the trend of remaining network after the fault, and whether remaining network transships after the failure judgement; If then execution in step 8; Otherwise, execution in step 9;
Step 8: according to the direction of controlling the trend of remaining network after the fault, select next fault point according to explicit triggering of accident chain link and/or implicit expression triggering mode, and step 4 as electrical network zone to be analyzed, is returned remaining network after the fault to as the primary fault point in the next fault point that will select;
Step 9: fault point that will this moment forms final accident chain, and has judged whether peace from the device action as last link adding accident chain of fault chain, if having, then carries out peace and moves from device.
2. a kind of complex electric network cascading failure analytical method of taking into account the bad weather factor according to claim 1 is characterized in that the control the trend computing formula of probability of malfunction in path of described calculating is P
o(E
i)=1-e
-ptWherein, p is circuit or the failure rate of bus under bad weather,
η
iThe fault ratio under bad weather for circuit or bus; T
iBe boisterous statistical duration, T is the measurement period time,
Failure rate for circuit or bus.
3. a kind of complex electric network cascading failure analytical method of taking into account the bad weather factor according to claim 1, it is characterized in that whether remaining network after the described failure judgement transships specifically is calculation of tidal current according to remaining network after the fault, seeks the circuit of thermally-stabilised nargin γ 〉=1.
4. a kind of complex electric network cascading failure analytical method of taking into account the bad weather factor according to claim 3 is characterized in that the computing formula of described thermally-stabilised nargin is
Wherein, γ
M, iFor circuit i in the thermally-stabilised nargin of cascading failure m during the stage, be P
I, mFor circuit i in the meritorious trend of cascading failure m during the stage; P
I, m-1For circuit i in the meritorious trend of cascading failure m-1 during the stage;
For cascading failure takes place to m-1 during the stage, circuit L
jActive power after the fault tripping on it is transferred to the active power on the circuit i; P
I, maxBe the steady limit of the heat of circuit i.
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