CN104158174A - Electric power system catastrophic accident risk assessment method - Google Patents
Electric power system catastrophic accident risk assessment method Download PDFInfo
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- CN104158174A CN104158174A CN201310216760.1A CN201310216760A CN104158174A CN 104158174 A CN104158174 A CN 104158174A CN 201310216760 A CN201310216760 A CN 201310216760A CN 104158174 A CN104158174 A CN 104158174A
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Abstract
The invention discloses an electric power system catastrophic accident risk assessment method, and relates to the field of an electric power system operation safety assessment technology. The method comprises the following steps: (1), establishing a topology structure of an electric power system; (2), according to faults, examining whether an island exists in the electric power system; (3), calculating electric power system trends; (4), calculating risk indicators; and (5), determining whether a next-stage fault occurs. According to the invention, since the electric power system catastrophic accident risk assessment method takes the operation state and the topology structure of the electric power system into consideration in a comprehensive manner and combines a complex network theory with a risk theory, risks existing in the current operation state of the electric power system can be comprehensively accessed in a comprehensive, effective and accurate mode, the problem of incapability of fully representing the operation safety states of the system by use of a conventional method is solved, and the method provided by the invention has an important effect on ensuring power network safe operation and preventing catastrophic accidents.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to power system operation security evaluation technical field, particularly a kind of electric power system disaster accident risk appraisal procedure.
Background technology
Along with the increase of electric power system capacity and scale, the accident risk that multiple faults, disaster weather cause increases, and the accident of having a power failure on a large scale has become the serious threat that modern power systems must be faced.Therefore, grasp by random failure and develop into rule and the mechanism of disaster accident, the risk of having a power failure on a large scale of electrical network is carried out to security evaluation, and for the feature of accidents at different levels and each evolutionary phase, build rational evaluation index system, the identification accident of having a power failure on a large scale is had great importance.
Existing electric power system risk assessment comprehensive description the serious consequence that causes with it of the possibility of accident, can provide the risk indicator of quantification to whole electrical network, each element.For the probability nature of accident, the element outage model that can adopt traditional element reliability to build is portrayed, and also has the Monte Carlo simulation of the employing methods such as emulation of sampling; Seriousness index appears in certainty reliability assessment the earliest, because certainty is assessed the uncertainty that is difficult to the event of portraying, substituted by uncertain method, severity index can be for different factors, as load loss, variation, frequency shift (FS) and branch road overload etc. build.The tradition risk assessment constructed severity index for different factors, as load loss, variation, frequency shift (FS) and branch road overload etc., all fails well the order of severity of from running status and the comprehensive sign accident of topological structure system.The power system security risk assessment index building is thus failed the lsafety level of good characterization system operation, the risk that recognition system operation that traffic control personnel can not be correct is existed.
Summary of the invention
The object of the invention is to overcome existing above-mentioned deficiency in prior art, a kind of electric power system catastrophic failure methods of risk assessment that can comprehensively characterize power system operation safe condition is provided.
In order to realize foregoing invention object, the invention provides following technical scheme:
A kind of electric power system catastrophic failure methods of risk assessment, it is characterized in that in the possible cascading failure situation of electrical network, to causing the possible catastrophic failure of electrical network to carry out risk assessment, wherein, two aspects of operation of power networks situation and electric network composition (electric betweenness) are considered.Comprise the following steps:
(1) set up the topological structure of electric power system: electric power system is carried out to initial trend calculating, and definite level fault;
(2) check whether off-the-line of electric power system: if electric power system off-the-line is carried out electrical network island disposal, and calculated load loss amount;
(3) calculate electric power system tide, lose load or generator as fault causes system, carry out power-balance processing, and calculated load loss amount; If electric power system restrains, calculate the electric betweenness B of the each node of electric power system
eand the electric betweenness B of each branch road (n)
e(l);
(4) calculation risk index: the severity index S of calculating each node according to electric betweenness in electric power system
pseverity index S with each branch road
l, and then obtain risk indicator;
(5) judged whether that next stage fault occurs: according to load loss quantitative statistics and risk indicator, judged whether that next stage fault occurs, if there is next stage fault to occur judging whether off-the-line of electric power system according to step (2); If do not have next stage fault to occur, the risk indicator obtaining according to step (4), determines the security of operation state of electric power system; Described risk indicator risk value increases, and POWER SYSTEM STATE security performance reduces.
Preferably, in above-mentioned electric power system catastrophic failure methods of risk assessment, in described step (2), trend after employing optimal load flow algorithm calculating fault.
Preferably, in above-mentioned electric power system catastrophic failure methods of risk assessment, in described step (3), the electric betweenness B of described node
e(n) pass through equation:
calculate, in equation, G is generator node set, and L is load point set, and (i, j) is all " generating-load " node pair; W
ifor the weight of generating node i, get generator rated capacity or actual exerting oneself; W
jfor the weight of load bus j, get reality or peak load; B
e, ij(n) be the electric betweenness producing behind the unit's of adding Injection Current source between (i, j) on node n.
Preferably, in above-mentioned electric power system catastrophic failure methods of risk assessment, in described step (3), the electric betweenness B of described branch road
e(l) pass through equation:
calculate, in equation, G is generator node set, and L is load point set, I
ij(l) be the electric current that " generating-load " node causes after to the unit's of adding Injection Current source between (i, j) on circuit l; W
ifor the weight of generating node i, get generator rated capacity or actual exerting oneself; W
jfor the weight of load bus j, get reality or peak load.
Preferably, in above-mentioned electric power system catastrophic failure methods of risk assessment, in described step (4), the severity index S of described node
ppass through equation
calculate Y in equation
p=(y
p1, y
p2..., y
pn)
tfor node voltage offset vector; B
p=(b
p1, b
p2..., b
pn) be the electric betweenness vector of node.
Preferably, in above-mentioned electric power system catastrophic failure methods of risk assessment, in described step (4), the severity index S of described branch road
lpass through equation
calculate Y in equation
l=(y
l1, y
l2..., y
lm)
tfor the out-of-limit amount of branch power; B
l=(b
l1, b
l2..., b
lm) be the electric betweenness vector of branch road.
Compared with prior art, beneficial effect of the present invention:
1, due in electric power system catastrophic failure methods of risk assessment of the present invention, running status and the topological structure of electric power system are considered, Complex Networks Theory is combined with Risk Theory, can be comprehensively, efficiently and accurately the existing risk of the current running status of electrical network is made to comprehensive assessment, solve the conventional method problem of characterization system security of operation state comprehensively, to ensureing that electric power netting safe running and prevention and control catastrophic failure play an important role.
2, electric power system catastrophic failure methods of risk assessment of the present invention has not only been considered the severity of load loss, has also considered the severity index of operation of power networks state, and potential threat electrical network being existed by Risk Theory is assessed.
Brief description of the drawings:
Fig. 1 is electric power system catastrophic failure methods of risk assessment flow chart.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with test example and embodiment, the present invention is described in further detail.But this should be interpreted as to the scope of the above-mentioned theme of the present invention only limits to following embodiment, all technology realizing based on content of the present invention all belong to scope of the present invention.
Embodiment
A kind of electric power system catastrophic failure methods of risk assessment, as shown in Figure 1, comprises the following steps:
(1) set up the topological structure of electric power system: electric power system is carried out to initial trend calculating, and definite level fault.The first order fault of electric power system is mainly determined according to the electric network element failure rate under weather element impact.
(2) check whether off-the-line of electric power system: if electric power system off-the-line is carried out electrical network island disposal, and calculated load loss amount.
(3) calculate electric power system tide, lose load or generator as fault causes system, carry out power-balance processing, and calculated load loss amount; If electric power system restrains, calculate the electric betweenness B of the each node of electric power system
eand the electric betweenness B of each branch road (n)
e(l).
(4) calculation risk index: the severity index S of calculating each node according to electric betweenness in electric power system
pseverity index S with each branch road
l, and then obtain risk indicator.The severity index S of each node
pseverity index S with each branch road
lit is the severity index of the current running status of measurement system.
(5) judged whether that next stage fault occurs: according to load loss quantitative statistics and risk indicator, judged whether that next stage fault occurs, if there is next stage fault to occur judging whether off-the-line of electric power system according to step (2); If do not have next stage fault to occur, the risk indicator obtaining according to step (4), determines the security of operation state of electric power system; Described risk indicator risk value increases, and POWER SYSTEM STATE security performance reduces, and value-at-risk reduces, and power system security can increase.The current running status of electric power system is carried out to risk assessment, electric power system present situation is made correct judgement and made in time corresponding measure, under current ruuning situation, the more contingent risk of next stage accident is assessed; Risk indicator is the judging quota of power system security state, and the higher expression system mode of system risk value is more dangerous, and large-scale catastrophic failure more easily occurs; Value-at-risk is lower, shows that power system operation is safer, and the possibility that catastrophic failure occurs is less.
In step (2), trend after employing optimal load flow algorithm calculating fault.
Wherein in step (3), the electric betweenness B of described node
e(n) pass through equation:
calculate, in equation, G is generator node set, and L is load point set, and (i, j) is all " generating-load " node pair; W
ifor the weight of generating node i, get generator rated capacity or actual exerting oneself; W
jfor the weight of load bus j, get reality or peak load; B
e, ij(n) be the electric betweenness producing behind the unit's of adding Injection Current source between (i, j) on node n.
Wherein in step (3), the electric betweenness B of described branch road
e(l) pass through equation:
calculate, in equation, G is generator node set, and L is load point set, I
ij(l) be the electric current that " generating-load " node causes after to the unit's of adding Injection Current source between (i, j) on circuit l; W
ifor the weight of generating node i, get generator rated capacity or actual exerting oneself; W
jfor the weight of load bus j, get reality or peak load.
In step (4), the severity index S of described node
ppass through equation
calculate Y in equation
p=(y
p1, y
p2..., y
pn)
tfor node voltage offset vector; B
p=(b
p1, b
p2..., b
pn) be the electric betweenness vector of node.
In step (4), the severity index S of described branch road
lpass through equation
calculate Y in equation
l=(y
l1, y
l2..., y
lm)
tfor the out-of-limit amount of branch power; B
l=(b
l1, b
l2..., b
lm) be the electric betweenness vector of branch road.
Claims (6)
1. an electric power system catastrophic failure methods of risk assessment, it is characterized in that in the possible cascading failure situation of electrical network, to causing the possible catastrophic failure of electrical network to carry out risk assessment, wherein, two aspects of operation of power networks situation and electric network composition (electric betweenness) are considered.Comprise the following steps:
(1) set up the topological structure of electric power system: electric power system is carried out to initial trend calculating, and definite level fault;
(2) check whether off-the-line of electric power system: if electric power system off-the-line is carried out electrical network island disposal, and calculated load loss amount;
(3) calculate electric power system tide, lose load or generator as fault causes system, carry out power-balance processing, and calculated load loss amount; If electric power system restrains, calculate the electric betweenness B of the each node of electric power system
eand the electric betweenness B of each branch road (n)
e(l);
(4) calculation risk index: the severity index S of calculating each node according to electric betweenness in electric power system
pseverity index S with each branch road
l, and then obtain risk indicator;
(5) judged whether that next stage fault occurs: according to load loss quantitative statistics and risk indicator, judged whether that next stage fault occurs, if there is next stage fault to occur judging whether off-the-line of electric power system according to step (2); If do not have next stage fault to occur, the risk indicator obtaining according to step (4), determines the security of operation state of electric power system; Described risk indicator risk value increases, and POWER SYSTEM STATE security performance reduces, and value-at-risk reduces, and power system security can increase.
2. electric power system catastrophic failure methods of risk assessment according to claim 1, is characterized in that, in described step (2), and trend after employing optimal load flow algorithm calculating fault.
3. electric power system catastrophic failure methods of risk assessment according to claim 1, is characterized in that, in described step (3), and the electric betweenness B of described node
e(n) pass through equation:
calculate, in equation, G is generator node set, and L is load point set, and (i, j) is all " generating-load " node pair; W
ifor the weight of generating node i, get generator rated capacity or actual exerting oneself; W
jfor the weight of load bus j, get reality or peak load; B
e, ij(n) be the electric betweenness producing behind the unit's of adding Injection Current source between (i, j) on node n.
4. electric power system catastrophic failure methods of risk assessment according to claim 1, is characterized in that, in described step (3), and the electric betweenness B of described branch road
e(l) pass through equation:
calculate, in equation, G is generator node set, and L is load point set, I
ij(l) be the electric current that " generating-load " node causes after to the unit's of adding Injection Current source between (i, j) on circuit l; W
ifor the weight of generating node i, get generator rated capacity or actual exerting oneself; W
jfor the weight of load bus j, get reality or peak load.
5. electric power system catastrophic failure methods of risk assessment according to claim 1, is characterized in that, in described step (4), and the severity index S of described node
ppass through equation
calculate Y in equation
p=(y
p1, y
p2..., y
pn)
tfor node voltage offset vector; B
p=(b
p1, b
p2..., b
pn) be the electric betweenness vector of node.
6. electric power system catastrophic failure methods of risk assessment according to claim 1, is characterized in that, in described step (4), and the severity index S of described branch road
lpass through equation
calculate Y in equation
l=(y
l1, y
l2..., y
lm)
tfor the out-of-limit amount of branch power; B
l=(b
l1, b
l2..., b
lm) be the electric betweenness vector of branch road.
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| CN104158174B CN104158174B (en) | 2016-04-27 |
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Cited By (7)
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| CN104463376A (en) * | 2014-12-24 | 2015-03-25 | 贵州电网公司电力调度控制中心 | Power grid chain accident disaster prediction model modeling method based on CIM standard |
| CN104573939A (en) * | 2014-12-25 | 2015-04-29 | 国家电网公司 | Safety and stability analysis method for power grid |
| CN104766141A (en) * | 2015-04-20 | 2015-07-08 | 国家电网公司 | Power grid risk prevention and control system based on cascading failure sequence |
| CN105811401A (en) * | 2016-03-21 | 2016-07-27 | 国家电网公司 | Auxiliary decision making method for provincial power grid accident emergency control |
| CN106709651A (en) * | 2016-12-26 | 2017-05-24 | 贵州电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Electric power system safety assessment system based on risk theory |
| CN107423921A (en) * | 2017-09-22 | 2017-12-01 | 国网山东省电力公司电力科学研究院 | A kind of power networks risk analysis method theoretical based on subdivision |
| CN113361856A (en) * | 2021-05-07 | 2021-09-07 | 广东电网有限责任公司电力调度控制中心 | Method and device for evaluating running risk of direct-current transmission system |
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Cited By (12)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN104463376A (en) * | 2014-12-24 | 2015-03-25 | 贵州电网公司电力调度控制中心 | Power grid chain accident disaster prediction model modeling method based on CIM standard |
| CN104573939A (en) * | 2014-12-25 | 2015-04-29 | 国家电网公司 | Safety and stability analysis method for power grid |
| CN104573939B (en) * | 2014-12-25 | 2019-05-03 | 国家电网公司 | A kind of analysis method of power grid security and stability |
| CN104766141A (en) * | 2015-04-20 | 2015-07-08 | 国家电网公司 | Power grid risk prevention and control system based on cascading failure sequence |
| CN105811401A (en) * | 2016-03-21 | 2016-07-27 | 国家电网公司 | Auxiliary decision making method for provincial power grid accident emergency control |
| CN105811401B (en) * | 2016-03-21 | 2018-10-12 | 国家电网公司 | Provincial power network accident emergency controls aid decision-making method |
| CN106709651A (en) * | 2016-12-26 | 2017-05-24 | 贵州电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Electric power system safety assessment system based on risk theory |
| CN106709651B (en) * | 2016-12-26 | 2021-01-05 | 贵州电网有限责任公司电力调度控制中心 | Electric power system security evaluation system based on risk theory |
| CN107423921A (en) * | 2017-09-22 | 2017-12-01 | 国网山东省电力公司电力科学研究院 | A kind of power networks risk analysis method theoretical based on subdivision |
| CN107423921B (en) * | 2017-09-22 | 2020-08-18 | 国网山东省电力公司电力科学研究院 | Power grid operation risk analysis method based on subdivision theory |
| CN113361856A (en) * | 2021-05-07 | 2021-09-07 | 广东电网有限责任公司电力调度控制中心 | Method and device for evaluating running risk of direct-current transmission system |
| CN113361856B (en) * | 2021-05-07 | 2022-10-28 | 广东电网有限责任公司电力调度控制中心 | Method and device for evaluating running risk of direct-current transmission system |
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