CN103279807B - A kind of static risk assessment method for power grid in severe weather - Google Patents
A kind of static risk assessment method for power grid in severe weather Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of static risk assessment method for power grid in severe weather, the probability that under vile weather, electric network fault occurs and the static security risk caused can be analyzed, support for finding that electrical network potential risk under vile weather, in advance reduction operation of power networks risk and breakdown loss provide.Probability of malfunction that the present invention causes by considering vile weather and the seriousness of fault, the static security index proposed can be used for electrical network static security risk assessment under the vile weather of different regions, effective analytical tool is provided for finding out the weak link in electrical network static security in inclement weather, favourable twelve Earthly Branches can be provided to hold for fault pre-alarming under vile weather, and reduce the breakdown loss that electrical network causes because of vile weather.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to a kind of power system security methods of risk assessment, particularly relate to electricity under a kind of vile weather
Net static risk appraisal procedure.
Background technology
Power industry is the lifeblood of national economy, and stable, the efficient operation of electrical network is social development and the people
The important leverage that productive life is normally carried out.Therefore, if power system generation major accident causes electrical network
Stability is destroyed, and entire society will necessarily bring huge economic loss.Historical statistical data shows,
Vile weather has tremendous influence to electric network fault, and vile weather threatens the power supply peace of electrical network always
Entirely.Along with the warming of global climate, Atmospheric Circulation Anomalies, in world wide, vile weather is more and more frequent, and this gives
Electric power netting safe running brings new bigger challenge.
Traditional electrical network Static security assessment malfunction that general only attention impact is the most serious in analysis, and
The probability that partial fault state occurs may be the least so that assessment result is overly conservative, is ensureing that system has
During more complete works of nargin, but sacrifice the economy of system；And traditional Static security assessment considers the most comprehensively
The probability of fault appearance and seriousness, the consideration of single aspect makes result and reality often exist relatively
Large deviation.Along with the foundation of electricity market mechanism, the concept of risk has been introduced in the analysis side of power system
In method, the analysis method of power system was combined with definitiveness to uncertainty by former Deterministic Methods
Research mode changes.Therefore, risk evaluation result can faults occur probability, again meter and fault make
The consequence become, provides for the tolerance of electric network security and states more accurately.
But, in the electrical network static security risk assessment study carried out at present, it is not specifically designed for by badly
Electrical network static security wind under the electric network fault probability calculation model that weather conditions cause, and corresponding vile weather
Danger appraisal procedure.
Summary of the invention
It is an object of the invention to provide a kind of static risk assessment method for power grid in severe weather, it is possible to analyze and dislike
Probability that under bad weather, electric network fault occurs and the static security risk that causes, for finding electrical network under vile weather
Potential risk, in advance reduction operation of power networks risk and breakdown loss provide to be supported.
The present invention uses following technical proposals:
A kind of static risk assessment method for power grid in severe weather, comprises the following steps
A: selected electrical network to be assessed, and obtain the topological connection relation of electrical network to be assessed, structural parameters, bear
Failure rate under lotus parameter and history vile weather, subsequently into step B；
B: electrical network to be assessed is carried out Load flow calculation, it is thus achieved that state and the trend of system is distributed under normal circumstances,
Subsequently into step C；
C: the forecast failure carried out under vile weather is chosen, and calculate and caused the general of fault by this vile weather
Rate, subsequently into step D；
D: carry out Load flow calculation under the forecast failure chosen, subsequently into step E:
E: judge under forecast failure, whether the result of Load flow calculation restrains, restrains if there is trend, enters step
Rapid H；Do not restrain if there is trend, then enter step F；
F: cut-out load or increase generator output, to maintain electrical network tide under the fault that vile weather causes
Stream convergence, subsequently into step G；
G: calculate and perform the load value that the operation of step F is lost, and at cut-out load or increase electromotor
Load flow calculation is re-started, subsequently into step H after exerting oneself；
H: calculate static security risk indicator and static security integrated risk index result, exports static security wind
Danger result.
In step C, described forecast failure includes the N-1 substance fault that caused by vile weather and on a large scale
The common cause failure fault that vile weather causes.
The computing formula of the described N-1 substance probability of malfunction caused by vile weather isWherein, λiFor i-th line road or bus failure rate in inclement weather, can
To obtain according to historical data statistics, t is timing statistics；Described by vile weather on a large scale cause common because of
The computing formula of failure of removal probability is pg=P(i)·P(m), wherein, P(i)And P(m)For under same vile weather
The probability that circuit or bus i and m stop transport, P(i)And P(m)Computing formula betiFor disliking
The probability of malfunction of each element under bad weather, n is the element number that transmission line of electricity is connected in logic.
In step H, described static security risk indicator includes load risk R1, node or busbar voltage more
Limit risk R2With mistake load risk R3。
Described load risk R1, node or out-of-limit risk R of busbar voltage2With mistake load risk R3Calculating public
Formula is Ri=p Si；Static security integrated risk index computing formula is R=∑ Ri=∑ (p Si), wherein,
P is the probability that under vile weather, forecast failure occurs, SiIt it is the consequence value of i-th kind of risk indicator.
The computing formula of i-th described Line overload risk schedule value isWhenTime, S1i=0, wherein, PiIt is that i-th branch road is actual to have
Merit power, PimaxBeing i-th branch road maximum transmission power, m is undetermined constant, takes m=1；
A plurality of branch road the most overladen system overload risk schedule value is every Line overload risk schedule
The summation of value.
The computing formula of described i-th node or busbar voltage out-of-limit risk schedule value is
S2i=(10 × (Vmi-0.9))2m, work as VmiDuring ＜ 0.9, S2i=0；V in formulamiFor i-th node or bus
Voltage magnitude, m is undetermined constant, takes m=1.
Described mistake load risk schedule value computing formula is S3i=∑ γiPLoss,i, wherein, γiBear for i-th
The load significance level factor of lotus point, PLoss,iFor i-th load point load loss value.
General industry load γiTake 1, civilian and essential industry load γiTake 1.5, special supply load γiTake 2.
The present invention has considered probability of malfunction and the seriousness of fault that vile weather causes, institute
The static security index proposed can be used for electrical network static security risk under the vile weather of different regions
Assessment, provides effective point for finding out the weak link in electrical network static security in inclement weather
Analysis instrument, it is possible to under vile weather fault pre-alarming provide favourable twelve Earthly Branches hold, and reduce electrical network because of
The breakdown loss caused for vile weather.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the flow chart of the present invention.
Detailed description of the invention
As it is shown in figure 1, the present invention comprises the following steps:
A: selected electrical network to be assessed, and obtain the topological connection relation of electrical network to be assessed, knot
Failure rate under structure parameter, load parameter and history vile weather, subsequently into step B；
B: electrical network to be assessed is carried out Load flow calculation, obtain system under normal circumstances state and
Trend is distributed, subsequently into step C；
C: the forecast failure carried out under vile weather is chosen, and calculate and caused by this vile weather
The probability of fault, subsequently into step D；
D: carry out Load flow calculation under the forecast failure chosen, subsequently into step E:
E: judge under forecast failure, whether the result of Load flow calculation restrains, receives if there is trend
Hold back, enter step H；Do not restrain if there is trend, then enter step F；
F: cut-out load or increase generator output, with the event maintaining vile weather to cause
The lower electric network swim convergence of barrier, subsequently into step G；
G: calculate and perform step F and operate the load value that lost, and at cut-out load or
Load flow calculation is re-started, subsequently into step H after increasing generator output；
H: calculate static security risk indicator and static security integrated risk index result, output
Static security Risk Results.
In step C of the present invention, it is contemplated that fault includes the N-1 substance caused by vile weather
The common cause failure fault that fault and on a large scale vile weather cause.
When calculating probability of malfunction, vile weather the calculating of the N-1 substance probability of malfunction caused
Formula isWherein, λiFor i-th line road or bus in inclement weather
Failure rate, can obtain according to historical data statistics, and t is timing statistics；By on a large scale
The computing formula of the common cause failure probability of malfunction that vile weather causes is pg=P(i)·P(m), its
In, P(i)And P(m)The probability stopped transport for circuit under same vile weather or bus i and m, P(i)With
P(m)Computing formula betiFault for element each under vile weather is general
Rate, n is the element number that transmission line of electricity is connected in logic.
In step H of the present invention, static security risk indicator includes load risk R1, node
Or out-of-limit risk R of busbar voltage2With mistake load risk R3.Load risk R1, node or bus
Voltage limit risk R2With mistake load risk R3Computing formula be Ri=p Si；Static security
Integrated risk index computing formula is R=∑ Ri=∑ (p Si), wherein, p is vile weather
The probability that lower forecast failure occurs, SiIt it is the consequence value of i-th kind of risk indicator.
The computational methods of each risk indicator consequence value are as follows:
1. the computing formula of i-th Line overload risk schedule value is When Time, S1i=0, wherein, PiIt it is i-th
The actual active power of branch road, PimaxBeing i-th branch road maximum transmission power, m is undetermined constant,
Take m=1；A plurality of branch road the most overladen system overload risk schedule value is every and passes by
The summation of load risk schedule value.Calculating process i-th Line overload risk schedule value
In, " covering " defect phenomenon easily occurs." cover " defect phenomenon to refer to when system is the most negative
When lotus risk schedule value is obtained by each element overload risk schedule value is cumulative, system exists and is permitted
It is the most out-of-limit that the most heavily loaded or little out-of-limit situation overload risk schedule value is likely larger than only one of which
The overload risk schedule value of situation, but, there is the most out-of-limit situation the most serious.
When branch circuit load rate is less than 90%, overload risk schedule value is 0；When branch road heavy duty,
Load factor is between 90% to 100%, and now overload risk schedule value is between 0 to 1
Value；When branch road transships, when load factor is more than 100%, overload risk schedule value is
Value more than 1.Now, overload risk schedule value is possible not only to reflect what each branch road transshipped
The order of severity, it is also possible to the order of severity of reflection branch road heavy duty.When branch road only occurs heavy duty, but
When there is not overload situations, the consequence value that discrete type and out-of-limit type function obtain is all 0, surface
There is not risk in system；But it is true that the system of heavy duty is at the area operation close to ultimate value,
System now implies danger, and any disturbance is likely to cause system to be transshipped.At weight
In the case of load, continuous function can obtain the consequence value more than 0, to management and running personnel
Disclose the potential overload risk in system.Therefore, in the present invention, m value is 1, can
It is prevented effectively from the appearance of " covering " defect.
2. the computing formula of i-th node or busbar voltage out-of-limit risk schedule value is
S2i=(10 × (Vmi-0.9))2m, work as VmiDuring ＜ 0.9, S2i=0；V in formulamiFor i-th node
Or the voltage magnitude of bus, as it has been described above, m is undetermined constant, take m=1, can effectively keep away
Exempt from the appearance of " covering " defect.When node voltage amplitude that and if only if is equal to rated voltage, the
I node or busbar voltage out-of-limit risk schedule value take 0；When amplitude is in the safety range of regulation
During interior fluctuation, i-th node or busbar voltage out-of-limit risk schedule value take between 0 to 1
Value；After amplitude runs off voltage bound, i-th node or the out-of-limit risk schedule of busbar voltage
Value is more than 1.Now, i-th node or busbar voltage out-of-limit risk schedule value are possible not only to instead
Reflect the order of severity that each node voltage is out-of-limit, it is also possible to connecing between reflecting voltage and voltage bound
Short range degree, and then disclose potential voltage limit risk.
3. considering that load significance level is different, losing load risk schedule value computing formula is
S3i=∑ γiPLoss,i, wherein, γiFor the load significance level factor of i-th load point, one
As industrial load γiTake 1, civilian and essential industry load γiTaking 1.5, government of hospital etc. is special
Supply load γiTake 2；PLoss,iFor i-th load point load loss value.
Claims (10)
1. a static risk assessment method for power grid in severe weather, it is characterised in that: bag
Include following steps
A: selected electrical network to be assessed, and obtain the topological connection relation of electrical network to be assessed, knot
Failure rate under structure parameter, load parameter and history vile weather, subsequently into step B；
B: electrical network to be assessed is carried out Load flow calculation, obtain system under normal circumstances state and
Trend is distributed, subsequently into step C；
C: the forecast failure carried out under vile weather is chosen, and calculate and caused by this vile weather
The probability of fault, subsequently into step D；
D: carry out Load flow calculation under the forecast failure chosen, subsequently into step E:
E: judge under forecast failure, whether the result of Load flow calculation restrains, receives if there is trend
Hold back, enter step H；Do not restrain if there is trend, then enter step F；
F: cut-out load or increase generator output, with the event maintaining vile weather to cause
The lower electric network swim convergence of barrier, subsequently into step G；
G: calculate and perform step F and operate the load value that lost, and at cut-out load or
Load flow calculation is re-started, subsequently into step H after increasing generator output；
H: calculate static security risk indicator and static security integrated risk index result, output
Static security Risk Results.
Electrical network static risk assessment side under vile weather the most according to claim 1
Method, it is characterised in that: in step C, described forecast failure includes being caused by vile weather
N-1 substance fault and the common cause failure fault that vile weather causes on a large scale.
Electrical network static risk assessment side under vile weather the most according to claim 2
Method, it is characterised in that: the calculating of the described N-1 substance probability of malfunction caused by vile weather
Formula isWherein, λiFor i-th line road or bus in inclement weather
Failure rate, can obtain according to historical data statistics, and t is timing statistics；Described by
The computing formula of the common cause failure probability of malfunction that vile weather causes on a large scale is
pg=P(i)·P(m), wherein, P(i)And P(m)For circuit under same vile weather or bus i and m
The probability stopped transport, P(i)And P(m)Computing formula be,tjFor badly
The probability of malfunction of each element under weather, n is the element number that transmission line of electricity is connected in logic.
Electrical network static risk assessment side under vile weather the most according to claim 3
Method, it is characterised in that: in step H, described static security risk indicator includes load risk
R1, node or out-of-limit risk R of busbar voltage2With mistake load risk R3。
Electrical network static risk assessment side under vile weather the most according to claim 4
Method, it is characterised in that: described load risk R1, node or out-of-limit risk R of busbar voltage2With
Lose load risk R3Computing formula be Ri=p Si；Static security integrated risk index calculates public affairs
Formula is R=∑ Ri=∑ (p Si), wherein, p is the general of forecast failure generation under vile weather
Rate, SiIt it is the consequence value of i-th kind of risk indicator.
Electrical network static risk assessment side under vile weather the most according to claim 5
Method, it is characterised in that: the computing formula of i-th described Line overload risk schedule value isWhenTime, S1i=0, wherein, PiIt it is i-th
The actual active power of branch road, PimaxBeing i-th branch road maximum transmission power, m is undetermined constant,
Take m=1.
Electrical network static risk assessment side under vile weather the most according to claim 6
Method, it is characterised in that: a plurality of branch road the most overladen system overload risk schedule value is every
The summation of Line overload risk schedule value.
Electrical network static risk assessment side under vile weather the most according to claim 7
Method, it is characterised in that: described i-th node or the meter of busbar voltage out-of-limit risk schedule value
Calculation formula is S2i=(10 × (Vmi-0.9))2m, work as Vmi< when 0.9, S2i=0；V in formulamiFor
I-th node or the voltage magnitude of bus, m is undetermined constant, takes m=1.
Electrical network static risk assessment side under vile weather the most according to claim 8
Method, it is characterised in that: described mistake load risk schedule value computing formula is S3i=∑ γiPLoss,i,
Wherein, γiFor the load significance level factor of i-th load point, PLoss,iFor i-th load point
Load loss value.
Electrical network static risk assessment side under vile weather the most according to claim 9
Method, it is characterised in that: general industry load γiTake 1, civilian and essential industry load γiTake 1.5,
Special supply load γiTake 2.
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN104504605A (en) * | 2014-05-08 | 2015-04-08 | 广东电网公司阳江供电局 | Method of risk evaluation of electrical power system containing wind power integration |
| CN103985065B (en) * | 2014-05-20 | 2017-10-10 | 天津大学 | A kind of Study of Risk Evaluation Analysis for Power System method based on failure prescan |
| CN103985066B (en) * | 2014-05-20 | 2017-05-03 | 天津大学 | Method for evaluating power system static risk based on hybrid power flow |
| CN104574211B (en) * | 2015-01-09 | 2017-12-22 | 广东电网有限责任公司电力调度控制中心 | Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets method for prewarning risk and system based on risk source |
| CN105654245B (en) * | 2015-12-31 | 2019-11-29 | 太原理工大学 | Power grid static voltage stability methods of risk assessment based on negative rules modeling |
| CN105869071B (en) * | 2016-04-07 | 2019-08-20 | 浙江大学 | Consider the Forming Electrical Dispatching Command Tickets methods of risk assessment of weather conditions |
| CN106684468B (en) * | 2016-07-08 | 2018-11-13 | 上海电力学院 | A kind of accumulator array multi-objective optimization design of power method |
| CN107633320B (en) * | 2017-08-17 | 2021-03-02 | 广东电网有限责任公司惠州供电局 | Power grid line importance degree evaluation method based on meteorological prediction and risk evaluation |
| CN107705032B (en) * | 2017-10-23 | 2020-05-19 | 华中科技大学 | Line ice melting method based on power grid icing disaster offline risk assessment model |
| CN108389002B (en) * | 2018-03-13 | 2021-12-28 | 国电南瑞科技股份有限公司 | Multiple fault generation method based on N-1 serious fault set |
| CN108647845A (en) * | 2018-03-22 | 2018-10-12 | 中国电力科学研究院有限公司 | A kind of power distribution network operation risk assessment method and apparatus containing distributed generation resource |
| CN109188208A (en) * | 2018-09-26 | 2019-01-11 | 国网江苏省电力有限公司南通供电分公司 | The failure rate appraisal procedure of conducting wire |
| CN110783964A (en) * | 2019-10-31 | 2020-02-11 | 国网河北省电力有限公司 | Risk assessment method and device for static security of power grid |
| CN113052473B (en) * | 2021-03-31 | 2024-03-22 | 贵州电网有限责任公司 | Power grid risk analysis method based on fault rate and static safety analysis |
| CN113466627A (en) * | 2021-07-09 | 2021-10-01 | 广东电网有限责任公司广州供电局 | Power grid fault prediction method suitable for severe weather |
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| JP2008134145A (en) * | 2006-11-28 | 2008-06-12 | Toshiba Corp | Weather prediction data analyzer and weather prediction data analysis method |
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