CN103324854A - Method and system for evaluating reliability of wind power collection system of offshore wind power plant - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses a method and a system for evaluating reliability of a wind power collection system of an offshore wind power plant. Topology equivalent outage rate is used as a reliable index, influence of electric faults such as cable faults, switch faults and fan faults on topology reliability is considered comprehensively, and reliability evaluation is performed to the wind power collection system under traditional switch configuration based on tree wiring, and complete configuration. The method and the system have a certain reference value to engineering design and research of the wind power collection system, and guidance significance in evaluating economic cost and fault opportunity cost of wind power collection systems under different configurations.

Description

Marine wind electric field slip ring system reliability estimation method and system

Technical field

The present invention relates to the Offshore Wind Power Generation Technology field, particularly relate to a kind of marine wind electric field slip ring system reliability estimation method and system.

Background technology

Compare with land wind-powered electricity generation, offshore wind farm has that wind speed is high, and annual utilization hours is large, does not take the advantages such as land land resource, and development is rapidly in the world in recent years.Similar with landwid electric field, at sea in the wind energy turbine set, aerogenerator sends electric energy and collects and be transferred to transformer station through slip ring system, is connected to the grid through after boosting.The marine wind electric field slip ring system is the key component of connecting fan and electrical network, and its internal fault will have a strong impact on exerting oneself of wind energy turbine set and may affect the safe operation of electrical network.Marine wind electric field slip ring system equipment is numerous simultaneously, its operation expense and breakdown maintenance time are all far above land wind energy turbine set, reliability is had higher requirement, and the reliability of therefore studying whole slip ring system has very important meaning to electrical network and the economic reliability service of whole marine wind electric field.

The topology reliability is subjected to the impact of slip ring system switch allocation plan, at present, wind energy turbine set slip ring system switch allocation plan has been carried out more research, but just economy cost and fault opportunity cost under the different switch allocation plans of slip ring system are simply calculated and analyzed, do not provide the model and algorithm of the reliability assessment under slip ring system switch conventional arrangement and the complete allocation plan.In addition, the electric faults such as cable, switch and wind-powered electricity generation unit are not furtherd investigate the impact of topological reliability.The method with EENS index and ELGC index evaluation topology reliability of using at present, Reliability Evaluation Model is accurate not, and does not consider various electric faults to the impact of topological reliability.

Summary of the invention

The object of the invention is to overcome the prior art above shortcomings, a kind of marine wind electric field slip ring system reliability estimation method and system are provided, so that the reliability of marine wind electric field slip ring system is assessed.

A kind of marine wind electric field slip ring system reliability estimation method comprises step:

The marine wind electric field that will be made of the n Fans is nP as an equivalent capacity _NUnit, described P _NRated power for every Fans;

According to described equivalent capacity nP _N, calculate under the configuration of marine wind electric field slip ring system traditional switch and the complete switch allocation plan, consider the equivalent output power EX of cable, switch and blower fan electric fault;

Calculate topoligical equivalence outage rate Q under the configuration of marine wind electric field slip ring system traditional switch and the complete switch allocation plan according to described equivalent output power EX _n

A kind of marine wind electric field slip ring system reliability evaluation system comprises;

The capacity determining unit, the marine wind electric field that is used for being made of the n Fans is nP as an equivalent capacity _NUnit, described P _NRated power for every Fans;

The output power determining unit is used for according to described equivalent capacity nP _N, calculate under the configuration of marine wind electric field slip ring system traditional switch and the complete switch allocation plan, consider the equivalent output power EX of cable, switch and blower fan electric fault;

The outage rate determining unit is for calculate topoligical equivalence outage rate Q under the configuration of marine wind electric field slip ring system traditional switch and the complete switch allocation plan according to described equivalent output power EX _n

Marine wind electric field slip ring system reliability estimation method of the present invention and system are with topoligical equivalence outage rate Q _nAs reliability index, consider the electric faults such as cable, switch, blower fan to the impact of topological reliability, to having carried out Calculation of Reliability based on the switch conventional arrangement of tree-like wiring and the slip ring system under the complete allocation plan, provided concrete reliability estimation method, project design to slip ring system has certain reference value, and economy cost and fault opportunity cost under the different allocation plans of estimation slip ring system are had directive significance.

Description of drawings

Fig. 1 is marine wind electric field Mechatronic Systems wiring topology schematic diagram;

Fig. 2 is marine wind electric field slip ring system reliability estimation method schematic flow sheet of the present invention;

Fig. 3 is the tree-like wiring traditional switch of marine wind electric field slip ring system allocation plan schematic diagram;

Fig. 4 is the complete switch allocation plan of the tree-like wiring of marine wind electric field slip ring system schematic diagram;

Fig. 5 is the structural representation of marine wind electric field slip ring system reliability evaluation system of the present invention.

Embodiment

In order to make purpose of the present invention, technical scheme and advantage clearer, below in conjunction with drawings and Examples, the present invention is further described in detail.Should be appreciated that embodiment described herein only in order to explain the present invention, does not limit protection scope of the present invention.

The slip ring system wiring topological diagram of marine wind electric field as shown in Figure 1, this topological diagram adopts the tree-like mode of connection, is comprised of booster stations and blower fan, the label of each point is the numbering of blower fan among the figure.

The present invention is directed to the characteristics of wind power system, with topoligical equivalence outage rate Q _n(preferably also take year expected loss of load EENS as reliability index) as reliability index, considers the electric faults such as cable, switch, blower fan topological reliability index calculated in the impact of topological reliability.Slip ring system switch allocation plan will affect topological reliability, and different slip ring system switch allocation plans, for slip ring system switch conventional arrangement with configure 2 kinds of switch allocation plans fully, the flow process of reliability assessment is identical, model is not identical with the Square rule, and the below is introduced respectively.

Marine wind electric field slip ring system reliability estimation method of the present invention as shown in Figure 2, comprises step:

Step S101, the marine wind electric field that will be made of the n Fans are nP as an equivalent capacity _NUnit, described P _NRated power for every Fans;

Step S102, the described equivalent capacity nP of foundation _N, calculate under the configuration of marine wind electric field slip ring system traditional switch and the complete switch allocation plan, consider the equivalent output power EX of cable, switch and blower fan electric fault;

Step S103, the described equivalent output power EX of foundation calculate topoligical equivalence outage rate Q under the configuration of marine wind electric field slip ring system traditional switch and the complete switch allocation plan _n

The reliability that the process above-mentioned steps is assessed out is the reliability take equivalent outage rate as index, as a preferred embodiment, can also indicate reliability in conjunction with a year expected loss of load.Particularly, according to described equivalent capacity and described equivalent outage rate Q _nCalculate topology year expected loss of load EENS under the configuration of marine wind electric field slip ring system traditional switch and the complete switch allocation plan.

The below introduces respectively equivalent outage rate Q for two kinds of different switch allocation plans _nModel inference process with expected loss of load EENS.

Based on the traditional switch allocation plan of tree-like connection type as shown in Figure 3, be connected to the n Fans on this topology, numbering is respectively G ₁, G ₂G _n, each other respectively by cable L ₁, L ₂L _nBe connected, there is switch S tree-like branch road and bus rod junction ₁Only have cable to be connected between this scheme apoplexy machine and the blower fan, switchgear only is installed in current collection cable access bus rod porch.Among the figure wind-powered electricity generation unit is simplified, the low tension switch of wind-powered electricity generation unit and the box type transformer that boosts etc. does not show in the drawings.

For the configuration of marine wind electric field slip ring system traditional switch, can obtain as follows topological reliability index:

(1) for a marine wind electric field that is consisted of by the n Fans, can regard the marine wind electric field that the n Fans consists of as one " equivalent capacity " and be nP _NUnit.

(2) failure rate of supposing blower fan is q, and n bar cable fault rate is respectively

Wherein the fan trouble rate has comprised the failure rate of the equipment such as aerogenerator, switch, case change; In the topology of traditional switch allocation plan, any cable fault or switch fault all can cause the blower fan on the whole piece chain all can't can be known by the series connection principle to the electrical network output power, and the probability that topological cable and switch all work is:

$q_{\mathrm{LS}}=(1-q_{S1})\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Π}}}(1-q_{L_i})$

In the formula:

Be cable L _iFailure rate, q _S1Be switch S ₁Failure rate.

(3) under the prerequisite that cable and switch all work, the fault of wind power generating set is separate, can know have the probability of k Fans fault to be in the topology by theory of probability

This moment, the power of circuit output was (n-k) P _N, wherein k is that scope is from the integer of 0～n.

(4) according to the expectation electric power principle of invariance that is obstructed, can topology in the expectation value of considering the output power in the fan trouble situation:

$\mathrm{EX}=(1-q_{S1})(1-\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Π}}}(1-q_{L_i}))(\underset{k=0}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}(n-k)P_N\·C_n^k{q}^k{(1-q)}^{n-k})$

In the formula: n is the number of units of blower fan, P _NBe the rated power of blower fan,

Be cable L _iFailure rate, q _S1Be switch S ₁Failure rate, q is the fan trouble rate, during q=0 for not considering the fan trouble rate.

(5) obtained the equivalent outage rate Q of this topology by following formula _nFor:

$Q_n=1-\frac{\mathrm{EX}}{n{P}_N}=1-\frac{(1-q_{S1})(1-\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Π}}}(1-q_{L_i}))(\underset{k=0}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}(n-k)P_N\·C_n^k{q}^k{(1-q)}^{n-k})}{n{P}_N}$

(6) a year expected loss of load EENS who obtains this topology by following formula is:

EENS＝nP _N·Q _n·8760

Based on the complete allocation plan of tree-like pull-switch as shown in Figure 4, be connected to the n Fans on this topology, numbering is respectively G ₁, G ₂G _n, each other respectively by cable L ₁, L ₂L _nBe connected, stube cable all is equipped with switch between blower fan, cable L _iOn switch S is housed _iWith blower fan G _i, and upstream all and blower fan G _iThe switch and downstream and the blower fan G that link to each other _iThe cable L that links to each other _iRegard an integral member I as, any one element fault all can cause integral member I fault among the integral member I, and integral member I fault can not have influence on the normal operation of upstream blower fan simultaneously, but can cause all blower fans of downstream to be stopped transport.Among the figure wind-powered electricity generation unit is simplified, the low tension switch of wind-powered electricity generation unit and the box type transformer that boosts etc. does not show in the drawings.

Configure fully for marine wind electric field slip ring system switch, can obtain as follows topological reliability index:

(1) for a marine wind electric field that is consisted of by the n Fans, can regard the marine wind electric field that the n Fans consists of as one " equivalent capacity " and be nP _NUnit.

(2) for the blower fan that is numbered i, if it is the terminal blower fan of topology, the equivalent outage rate of its correspondence is:

$Q_1=1-(1-q_{L_i})(1-q)$

In the formula,

Be blower fan i upstream cable L _iFailure rate, q is the failure rate of wind-powered electricity generation unit, q=0 when not considering fan trouble.

(3) if blower fan i is not tail-end blower fan, establishing blower fan i has downstream blower fan m platform, and its downstream branch adds up to b(and comprises that blower fan i itself also calculates a downstream branch), the blower fan number on the downstream branch j is k _jPlatform, and have

The m Fans in blower fan i downstream is regarded as one " equivalent capacity " be mP _NUnit,

Be the equivalent total load of all branch's losses of blower fan i downstream, the capacity of can regarding as is mP _NBlower fan hinder for some reason the electric weight that loses; So according to the expectation electric power principle of invariance that is obstructed, in the topology to the equivalent output power EX in blower fan i place be:

$\mathrm{EX}=(m{P}_N-\underset{j=1}{\overset{b}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{k}_j{P}_N{Q}_{k_j})\·(1-q_{L_i})\·\underset{j=1}{\overset{b}{\mathrm{\Π}}}(1-q_{S_{\mathrm{ij}}})$

In the formula,

Be k among the upstream branch j of blower fan i _jThe equivalent outage rate of typhoon group of motors cascaded structure,

Be blower fan i upstream stube cable L _iFailure rate,

Be connecting valve S between blower fan i and downstream branch j _IjFailure rate, P _NRated power for blower fan.

(4) the m Fans of blower fan i upstream being regarded as an equivalent capacity is mP _NBlower fan can obtain equivalent outage rate Q corresponding to blower fan i by following formula _m:

$Q_m=1-\frac{\mathrm{EX}}{m{P}_N}=1-\frac{(m{P}_N-\underset{j=1}{\overset{b}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{k}_j{Q}_{k_j})}{m{P}_N}\·(1-q_{L_i})\·\underset{j=1}{\overset{b}{\mathrm{\Π}}}(1-q_{S_{\mathrm{ij}}})$

In the formula, Q _mThat the m Fans is regarded as an equivalent capacity is mP in blower fan i upstream _NThe equivalent outage rate of blower fan, can by

Iterative computation obtains, when n=1, and Q ₁Can by

Calculate

(5) according to wind energy turbine set equivalent capacity nP _NWith equivalent outage rate Q _n, the year expected loss of load EENS that is obtained this topology by following formula is:

EENS＝nP _N·Q _n·8760

Marine wind electric field slip ring system reliability evaluation system of the present invention is the system corresponding with above-mentioned appraisal procedure, as shown in Figure 5, comprises;

The capacity determining unit, the marine wind electric field that is used for being made of the n Fans is nP as an equivalent capacity _NUnit, described P _NRated power for every Fans;

The output power determining unit is used for according to described equivalent capacity nP _N, calculate under the configuration of marine wind electric field slip ring system traditional switch and the complete switch allocation plan, consider the equivalent output power EX of cable, switch and blower fan electric fault;

The outage rate determining unit is for calculate topoligical equivalence outage rate Q under the configuration of marine wind electric field slip ring system traditional switch and the complete switch allocation plan according to described equivalent output power EX _n

As a preferred embodiment, according to described equivalent capacity and described equivalent outage rate Q _nCalculate topology year expected loss of load EENS under the configuration of marine wind electric field slip ring system traditional switch and the complete switch allocation plan.

As a preferred embodiment, if the switch allocation plan of marine wind electric field slip ring system is the conventional arrangement scheme, then the computing formula of described equivalent output power EX is:

$\mathrm{EX}=(1-q_{S1})(1-\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Π}}}(1-q_{L_i}))(\underset{k=0}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}(n-k)P_N\·C_n^k{q}^k{(1-q)}^{n-k})$

In the formula, q _S1Represent the switch S between tree-like branch road and the bus rod ₁Failure rate,

Expression cable L _iFailure rate, k represents the number of units of fault blower fan, q represents the failure rate of blower fan;

If the switch allocation plan of marine wind electric field slip ring system is complete allocation plan, then the computing formula of described equivalent output power EX is:

$\mathrm{EX}=(m{P}_N-\underset{j=1}{\overset{b}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{k}_j{P}_N{Q}_{k_j})\·(1-q_{L_i})\·\underset{j=1}{\overset{b}{\mathrm{\Π}}}(1-q_{S_{\mathrm{ij}}})$

In the formula, m represents the blower fan number of units in topological non-tail-end blower fan i downstream, and b represents topological non-tail-end blower fan i downstream branch sum, k _jRepresent the blower fan number of units on the topological non-tail-end blower fan i downstream branch j,

Represent k among the upstream branch j of topological non-tail-end blower fan i _jThe equivalent outage rate of typhoon group of motors cascaded structure, Be the non-tail-end blower fan i of topology upstream stube cable L _iFailure rate,

Be connecting valve S between the non-tail-end blower fan i of topology and downstream branch j _IjFailure rate.

As a preferred embodiment, if the switch allocation plan of marine wind electric field slip ring system is the conventional arrangement scheme, described equivalent outage rate Q then _nComputing formula be:

$Q_n=1-\frac{\mathrm{EX}}{n{P}_N}=1-\frac{(1-q_{S1})(1-\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Π}}}(1-q_{L_i}))(\underset{k=0}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}(n-k)P_N\·C_n^k{q}^k{(1-q)}^{n-k})}{n{P}_N}$

If the switch allocation plan of marine wind electric field slip ring system is complete allocation plan, described equivalent outage rate Q then _nComputing formula be:

$Q_n=\left\{\begin{array}{c}{Q}_1=1-(1-q_{L_i})(1-q)\\ Q_m=1-\frac{\mathrm{EX}}{m{P}_N}=1-\frac{(m{P}_N-\underset{j=1}{\overset{b}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{k}_j{Q}_{k_j})}{m{P}_N}\·(1-q_{L_i})\·\underset{j=1}{\overset{b}{\mathrm{\Π}}}(1-q_{S_{\mathrm{ij}}})\end{array}\right.$

Q ₁Represent the equivalent outage rate that topological tail-end blower fan is corresponding, Q _mRepresent the equivalent outage rate that topological non-tail-end blower fan is corresponding.

As a preferred embodiment, expected loss of load EENS was in described year:

EENS＝nP _N·Q _n·8760。

The above embodiment has only expressed several embodiment of the present invention, and it describes comparatively concrete and detailed, but can not therefore be interpreted as the restriction to claim of the present invention.Should be pointed out that for the person of ordinary skill of the art, without departing from the inventive concept of the premise, can also make some distortion and improvement, these all belong to protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, the protection domain of patent of the present invention should be as the criterion with claims.

Claims (10)

1. a marine wind electric field slip ring system reliability estimation method is characterized in that, comprises step:

The marine wind electric field that will be made of the n Fans is nP as an equivalent capacity _NUnit, described P _NRated power for every Fans;

According to described equivalent capacity nP _N, calculate under the configuration of marine wind electric field slip ring system traditional switch and the complete switch allocation plan, consider the equivalent output power EX of cable, switch and blower fan electric fault;

Calculate topoligical equivalence outage rate Q under the configuration of marine wind electric field slip ring system traditional switch and the complete switch allocation plan according to described equivalent output power EX _n

2. marine wind electric field slip ring system reliability estimation method according to claim 1 is characterized in that,

According to described equivalent capacity and described equivalent outage rate Q _nCalculate topology year expected loss of load EENS under the configuration of marine wind electric field slip ring system traditional switch and the complete switch allocation plan.

3. marine wind electric field slip ring system reliability estimation method according to claim 1 and 2 is characterized in that,

If the switch allocation plan of marine wind electric field slip ring system is the conventional arrangement scheme, then the computing formula of described equivalent output power EX is:

$\mathrm{EX}=(1-q_{S1})(1-\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Π}}}(1-q_{L_i}))(\underset{k=0}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}(n-k)P_N\·C_n^k{q}^k{(1-q)}^{n-k})$

In the formula, q _S1Represent the switch S between tree-like branch road and the bus rod ₁Failure rate, Expression cable L _iFailure rate, k represents the number of units of fault blower fan, q represents the failure rate of blower fan;

If the switch allocation plan of marine wind electric field slip ring system is complete allocation plan, then the computing formula of described equivalent output power EX is:

$\mathrm{EX}=(m{P}_N-\underset{j=1}{\overset{b}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{k}_j{P}_N{Q}_{k_j})\·(1-q_{L_i})\·\underset{j=1}{\overset{b}{\mathrm{\Π}}}(1-q_{S_{\mathrm{ij}}})$

In the formula, m represents the blower fan number of units in topological non-tail-end blower fan i downstream, and b represents topological non-tail-end blower fan i downstream branch sum, k _jRepresent the blower fan number of units on the topological non-tail-end blower fan i downstream branch j,

Represent k among the upstream branch j of topological non-tail-end blower fan i _jThe equivalent outage rate of typhoon group of motors cascaded structure,

Be the non-tail-end blower fan i of topology upstream stube cable L _iFailure rate,

Be connecting valve S between the non-tail-end blower fan i of topology and downstream branch j _IjFailure rate.

4. marine wind electric field slip ring system reliability estimation method according to claim 3 is characterized in that,

If the switch allocation plan of marine wind electric field slip ring system is the conventional arrangement scheme, described equivalent outage rate Q then _nComputing formula be:

$Q_n=1-\frac{\mathrm{EX}}{n{P}_N}=1-\frac{(1-q_{S1})(1-\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Π}}}(1-q_{L_i}))(\underset{k=0}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}(n-k)P_N\·C_n^k{q}^k{(1-q)}^{n-k})}{n{P}_N}$

If the switch allocation plan of marine wind electric field slip ring system is complete allocation plan, described equivalent outage rate Q then _nComputing formula be:

$Q_n=\left\{\begin{array}{c}{Q}_1=1-(1-q_{L_i})(1-q)\\ Q_m=1-\frac{\mathrm{EX}}{m{P}_N}=1-\frac{(m{P}_N-\underset{j=1}{\overset{b}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{k}_j{Q}_{k_j})}{m{P}_N}\·(1-q_{L_i})\·\underset{j=1}{\overset{b}{\mathrm{\Π}}}(1-q_{S_{\mathrm{ij}}})\end{array}\right.$

Q ₁Represent the equivalent outage rate that topological tail-end blower fan is corresponding, Q _mRepresent the equivalent outage rate that topological non-tail-end blower fan is corresponding.

5. marine wind electric field slip ring system reliability estimation method according to claim 2 is characterized in that, expected loss of load EENS was in described year:

EENS＝nP _N·Q _n·8760。

6. a marine wind electric field slip ring system reliability evaluation system is characterized in that, comprises;

The capacity determining unit, the marine wind electric field that is used for being made of the n Fans is nP as an equivalent capacity _NUnit, described P _NRated power for every Fans;

The output power determining unit is used for according to described equivalent capacity nP _N, calculate under the configuration of marine wind electric field slip ring system traditional switch and the complete switch allocation plan, consider the equivalent output power EX of cable, switch and blower fan electric fault;

The outage rate determining unit is for calculate topoligical equivalence outage rate Q under the configuration of marine wind electric field slip ring system traditional switch and the complete switch allocation plan according to described equivalent output power EX _n

7. marine wind electric field slip ring system reliability estimation method according to claim 6 system is characterized in that,

According to described equivalent capacity and described equivalent outage rate Q _nCalculate topology year expected loss of load EENS under the configuration of marine wind electric field slip ring system traditional switch and the complete switch allocation plan.

8. according to claim 6 or 7 described marine wind electric field slip ring system reliability evaluation systems, it is characterized in that,

If the switch allocation plan of marine wind electric field slip ring system is the conventional arrangement scheme, then the computing formula of described equivalent output power EX is:

$\mathrm{EX}=(1-q_{S1})(1-\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Π}}}(1-q_{L_i}))(\underset{k=0}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}(n-k)P_N\·C_n^k{q}^k{(1-q)}^{n-k})$

In the formula, q _S1Represent the switch S between tree-like branch road and the bus rod ₁Failure rate,

Expression cable L _iFailure rate, k represents the number of units of fault blower fan, q represents the failure rate of blower fan;

If the switch allocation plan of marine wind electric field slip ring system is complete allocation plan, then the computing formula of described equivalent output power EX is:

$\mathrm{EX}=(m{P}_N-\underset{j=1}{\overset{b}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{k}_j{P}_N{Q}_{k_j})\·(1-q_{L_i})\·\underset{j=1}{\overset{b}{\mathrm{\Π}}}(1-q_{S_{\mathrm{ij}}})$

In the formula, m represents the blower fan number of units in topological non-tail-end blower fan i downstream, and b represents topological non-tail-end blower fan i downstream branch sum, k _jRepresent the blower fan number of units on the topological non-tail-end blower fan i downstream branch j,

Represent k among the upstream branch j of topological non-tail-end blower fan i _jThe equivalent outage rate of typhoon group of motors cascaded structure, Be the non-tail-end blower fan i of topology upstream stube cable L _iFailure rate,

Be connecting valve S between the non-tail-end blower fan i of topology and downstream branch j _IjFailure rate.

9. marine wind electric field slip ring system reliability evaluation system according to claim 8 is characterized in that,

If the switch allocation plan of marine wind electric field slip ring system is the conventional arrangement scheme, described equivalent outage rate Q then _nComputing formula be:

$Q_n=1-\frac{\mathrm{EX}}{n{P}_N}=1-\frac{(1-q_{S1})(1-\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Π}}}(1-q_{L_i}))(\underset{k=0}{\overset{n}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}(n-k)P_N\·C_n^k{q}^k{(1-q)}^{n-k})}{n{P}_N}$

If the switch allocation plan of marine wind electric field slip ring system is complete allocation plan, described equivalent outage rate Q then _nComputing formula be:

$Q_n=\left\{\begin{array}{c}{Q}_1=1-(1-q_{L_i})(1-q)\\ Q_m=1-\frac{\mathrm{EX}}{m{P}_N}=1-\frac{(m{P}_N-\underset{j=1}{\overset{b}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}{k}_j{Q}_{k_j})}{m{P}_N}\·(1-q_{L_i})\·\underset{j=1}{\overset{b}{\mathrm{\Π}}}(1-q_{S_{\mathrm{ij}}})\end{array}\right.$

Q ₁Represent the equivalent outage rate that topological tail-end blower fan is corresponding, Q _mRepresent the equivalent outage rate that topological non-tail-end blower fan is corresponding.

10. marine wind electric field slip ring system reliability evaluation system according to claim 7 is characterized in that, expected loss of load EENS was in described year:

EENS＝nP _N·Q _n·8760。

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