CN109474002B - Wind power plant reliability comprehensive evaluation method considering electrical main wiring topology - Google Patents

Wind power plant reliability comprehensive evaluation method considering electrical main wiring topology Download PDF

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CN109474002B
CN109474002B CN201810034148.5A CN201810034148A CN109474002B CN 109474002 B CN109474002 B CN 109474002B CN 201810034148 A CN201810034148 A CN 201810034148A CN 109474002 B CN109474002 B CN 109474002B
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power plant
wind power
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wind speed
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CN109474002A (en
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王晓东
杨苹
刘泽健
陆进威
叶长青
王鹏
唐惜春
陈恋鲆
管品发
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Spic Guangxi Jinzishan Wind Electricity Co ltd
South China University of Technology SCUT
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South China University of Technology SCUT
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    • H—ELECTRICITY
    • H02—GENERATION; CONVERSION OR DISTRIBUTION OF ELECTRIC POWER
    • H02J—CIRCUIT ARRANGEMENTS OR SYSTEMS FOR SUPPLYING OR DISTRIBUTING ELECTRIC POWER; SYSTEMS FOR STORING ELECTRIC ENERGY
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Abstract

The invention discloses a comprehensive evaluation method for reliability of a wind power plant by considering an electric main wiring topology, which comprises the following steps of: s1, calculating expected output EX of multiple fans on the same outlet wire of the current collection systemW(ii) a S2, calculating expected output EX of each outgoing line of the current collection systemC(ii) a S3, calculating the expected output EX of the wind power plant considering the topological influence of the booster station; s4, calculating a reliability index of the wind power plant, wherein the reliability index specifically comprises an expected insufficient power EDNS, an equivalent outage rate Q of the wind power plant, an equivalent outage time T of the wind power plant and an expected insufficient power EENS, and the reliability index comprises the following steps: EDNS ═ PGeneral assembly-EX, wherein: pGeneral (1)The total installed capacity of the wind power plant;
Figure DDA0003469934420000011
T＝Q·8760h；EENS＝Pgeneral assemblyT. The invention comprehensively considers the influence of the output characteristics and the wind speed probability distribution of the wind turbine generator, the wind turbine generator faults, the current collection system and the booster power station element faults on the reliability of the wind power plant, and can completely and objectively evaluate the reliability of the wind power plant.

Description

Wind power plant reliability comprehensive evaluation method considering electrical main wiring topology
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of wind power plant reliability evaluation, in particular to a wind power plant reliability comprehensive evaluation method considering an electric main wiring topology.
Background
At present, the development and construction of wind power plants are important measures for implementing energy development strategies and energy transformation in China. The rapid development of wind power generation has created many opportunities and also has created significant challenges. On the one hand, the wind turbine generator works in a complex and changeable environment and is exposed to environments such as temperature sudden change, wind speed sudden change, sand dust, rainfall, snow accumulation and the like for a long time, so that faults of the wind turbine generator frequently occur, and the operation and maintenance cost is high. Statistics shows that the operation and maintenance cost of the onshore wind power plant is up to 15% -20% of the total economic income, and the operation and maintenance cost of the offshore wind power plant is even up to 30% -35%. With the continuous expansion of the installed capacity of the wind turbine, the structure of the fan is increasingly complex, and the reliability problem of the fan is also remarkably improved. On the other hand, the existing large-scale units are gradually exceeding the quality guarantee period, and the wind farm owners face higher operation and maintenance costs. Therefore, how to objectively and accurately evaluate the reliability of the wind power plant is one of the key problems influencing the sustainable development of wind power.
According to the literature retrieval discovery in the prior art, a wind farm reliability model considering wind turbine generator faults and application thereof (Wulingwei, Zhang Jianhua, Liu Ruixi. a wind farm reliability model considering wind turbine generator faults and application thereof [ J ] power system automation, 2012,36 (16): 31-35.) examine the reliability of the wind farm according to the output level of the wind farm, and calculate the expected value of insufficient power of the wind farm by comprehensively considering wind speed distribution and the fan fault rate so as to evaluate the reliability of the wind farm. The Chinese invention patent (application number: CN201410173180.3) provides a wind power plant reliability modeling method considering weather, which considers factors such as the correlation of weather conditions of a plurality of wind power plants, the influence of weather on the forced outage rate of a wind turbine generator and the like, establishes a multi-state probability model of each wind power plant, and realizes the evaluation of the reliability of each wind power plant. The Chinese invention patent (application number: CN201610979361.4) provides a reliability calculation method for a wind power plant collection system, and the reliability index of the wind power plant of the collection system is obtained by calculating a path set and an isolation set of a medium-value wind power generator set in the collection system. The wind farm reliability evaluation method proposed by the above documents does not evaluate the reliability of the wind farm according to the complete wind turbine generator set-current collection system-booster station wind farm electrical main wiring topology, but only evaluates the local reliability of the wind farm.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects in the prior art and provides a comprehensive evaluation method for reliability of a wind power plant by considering the topology of electric main wiring, which is based on the current situation that the topology of the main wiring of the wind power plant is not completely considered in the prior art for evaluating the reliability of the wind power plant, and comprehensively considers the influence of the output characteristic and the wind speed probability distribution of a wind turbine generator, the fault of the wind turbine generator, the element fault of a current collection system and a booster power station on the reliability of the wind power plant so as to realize complete and objective evaluation on the reliability of the wind power plant.
The purpose of the invention is realized by the following technical scheme:
the method for comprehensively evaluating the reliability of the wind power plant by considering the electrical main wiring topology comprises the following steps:
s1, calculating expected output EX of multiple fans on the same outlet wire of the current collection systemW；
S2, calculating expected output EX of each outgoing line of the current collection systemC；
S3, calculating the expected output EX of the wind power plant considering the topological influence of the booster station;
s4, calculating a reliability index of the wind power plant, wherein the reliability index specifically comprises an expected insufficient power EDNS, an equivalent outage rate Q of the wind power plant, an equivalent outage time T of the wind power plant and an expected insufficient electric quantity EENS, and the reliability index comprises the following steps:
EDNS＝Pgeneral assembly-EX，
In the formula: pGeneral assemblyIs the total installed capacity of the wind farm,
Figure GDA0003469934410000021
T＝Q·8760h，
EENS＝Pgeneral assembly·T。
As a further improvement, in step S1, a wind speed probability distribution model and a fan output model are established according to the wind speed statistical data, the wind turbine technical parameters, and the wind turbine fault statistical data, so as to calculate the expected output EX of multiple fans on the same outlet of the current collection systemW。
As a further improvement, the step S1 includes the following sub-steps:
s11, solving and obtaining the average value of the wind speed according to the actual wind speed statistical data
Figure GDA0003469934410000023
And calculating a shape parameter y and a scale parameter c of the Weibull wind speed probability distribution model by adopting a moment method, wherein the standard deviation sigma is as follows:
Figure GDA0003469934410000022
in the formula: Γ (x) is a gamma function, and a Weibull wind speed probability distribution model is obtained:
Figure GDA0003469934410000031
in the formula: v is a given wind speed, f (v) represents a percentage of time at the given wind speed;
s12, obtaining the output characteristic of the wind turbine generator according to the technical parameters of the wind turbine generator:
Figure GDA0003469934410000032
in the formula: v. ofci、vco、vrCut-in wind speed, cut-out wind speed and rated wind speed, respectively, P (v) is the active power output by the wind power plant at a given wind speed, PNRated power of a single wind turbine;
s13, considering the influence of the randomness of the wind speed on the output characteristics of the wind generation set, and combining the probability density function of wind speed distribution and the output characteristics of the wind generation set to solve the expected output of a single wind generation set:
Figure GDA0003469934410000033
in the formula: EXsingleThe expected output of a single wind turbine generator is not considered when the generator fault occurs;
s14, considering the fault condition of the unit, calculating expected output EX of a plurality of fans on the same outlet wire of the current collection systemW：
Figure GDA0003469934410000034
In the formula: q. q.swAnd R is the unavailability rate of the wind turbine generators, R is the total number of the wind turbine generators on the same outlet wire of the current collecting system, and h is the number of the failed wind turbine generators.
As a further improvement, in step S2, the probability p that each outgoing line successfully transmits electric energy is calculated according to the topology of the current collecting system and the unavailability of the componentsCAnd further calculating expected output EX of each outgoing lineC。
As a further improvement, in step S2, the probability p that each outgoing line successfully delivers electric energyCComprises the following steps:
Figure GDA0003469934410000035
in the formula: q. q.sCBFor the availability of the circuit breaker, qTFG is the number of wind turbine generator sets on the outgoing line, q is the transformer unavailabilityeIs the e-th section of feeder line on the outgoing lineL is the total number of sections of the feeder line on the outgoing line;
the expected EX of the output of the strip lineCComprises the following steps:
EXC＝EXW·pC。
as a further improvement, in step S3, the probability p of occurrence of each combination of the power supplies of the booster station is calculated by using a combined minimal cut set method according to the topology of the booster station and the unavailability of componentsiAnd further calculating the expected output EX of the wind power plant.
As a further improvement, the step S3 includes the following sub-steps:
s31, respectively enabling each outgoing line of the current collection system to be equivalent to a conventional generator set with rated power equal to expected output of the conventional generator set, and taking the conventional generator set as input of the incoming line of the corresponding booster station;
s32, recording m incoming lines of the booster station, wherein k lines can successfully transmit electric energy to the outlet line of the booster station as an event Z, m-k lines cannot successfully transmit electric energy to the outlet line of the booster station as an event W, and respectively obtaining a set C of event Z minimum cut sets by utilizing a combined minimum cut set methodZSet of W minimal cut sets CW；
S33, for C respectivelyZAnd CWThe minimal cut set in the process is processed by non-intersection, and the probability p of the occurrence of the event Z and the event W is calculatedZAnd pW；
S34, in m inlet wires of the booster station, calculating expected output EX of the combination i by taking k successfully-transmitted electric energy and m-k incapable-transmitted electric energy as the combination ii：
Figure GDA0003469934410000041
In the formula: EXCjDenotes the j-th line-in force expectation, piAnd the output expectation EX of the wind power plant is the probability of the ith combination:
Figure GDA0003469934410000042
in the formula, n is the total combined number of m incoming lines of the wind power plant for transmitting electric energy.
As a further improvement, in the sub-step S32, the C is determined by using a combined minimal cut set methodZAnd CWThe method comprises the following substeps:
s321, solving a set C of minimum cut sets of electric energy successfully output by each incoming line1、C2，…，Ck，…，CmAnd is expressed in the form of a matrix, each row of the matrix represents a minimal cut set, each column represents an element in the booster station topology, 1 represents an element of the column contained in the minimal cut set, and 0 represents that the element is not contained;
s322, k incoming line minimum cut set C for successfully transmitting electric energy1～CkPerforming union operation to obtain CZ：
CZ＝C1∪C2∪...∪Ck
S323, m-k incoming line minimum cut set C incapable of transmitting electric energyk+1～CmDelete and CZThe residual components of the minimal cut set with intersection form CSk+1～CSm；
S324, converting CSk+1～CSmAdding row vectors from different minimal cut sets pairwise, taking 1 from elements larger than 1, performing union operation on all row vectors obtained by addition, simultaneously abandoning high-order minimal cut sets, and forming C by the rest low-order cut setsW。
The comprehensive evaluation method for the reliability of the wind power plant considering the topology of the electric main wiring provided by the invention comprises the steps of firstly considering the wind speed probability distribution, the output characteristic of the wind power plant and the fault to calculate the expected output power of the wind power plant, then calculating the expected output power of the whole current collection system according to the topology of the current collection system on the basis of the expected output power, and finally providing a method for combining the minimum cut set. The method comprehensively considers the influence of the output characteristics and the wind speed probability distribution of the wind turbine generator, the faults of the wind turbine generator, the current collection system and the element faults of the booster power station on the reliability of the wind power station, solves the problem of incomplete consideration of the topology of the main electrical wiring of the wind power station in the existing wind power station evaluation technology, and can evaluate the reliability of the wind power station completely and objectively.
Drawings
The invention is further illustrated by means of the attached drawings, but the embodiments in the drawings do not constitute any limitation to the invention, and for a person skilled in the art, without inventive effort, further drawings may be derived from the following figures.
FIG. 1 is a block diagram of a wind farm reliability comprehensive evaluation process.
FIG. 2 is a comprehensive evaluation system diagram of the reliability of the wind power plant.
FIG. 3 is a flow chart of a combined minimal cut set method.
FIG. 4 is a wind farm topology.
Fig. 5 is a booster plant main wiring topology diagram.
Detailed Description
In order to make those skilled in the art better understand the technical solution of the present invention, the following detailed description of the present invention is provided with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments, and it is to be noted that the embodiments and features of the embodiments of the present application can be combined with each other without conflict.
The wind power plant reliability comprehensive evaluation method considering the electrical main wiring topology provided by the embodiment of the invention comprises the following four steps as shown in fig. 1: s1, calculating expected output of a plurality of wind turbine generators on the same outgoing line of the power collection system; s2, calculating expected output of each strip outgoing line of the power collection system; s3, calculating expected output of the whole wind power plant under the consideration of the topological influence of the booster station; and S4, calculating each reliability index of the wind power plant. FIG. 2 is a system diagram of the comprehensive reliability assessment of the present invention, which describes the parameter transmission relationship among the steps. The steps will now be described in detail with reference to a wind farm main wiring topology as shown in fig. 4 and 5.
S1: according to the wind speed statistical data, the technical parameters of the wind turbine generator and the wind turbine generatorFault statistic data, establishing a wind speed probability distribution model and a fan output model, and calculating expected output EX of multiple fans on the same outlet of the current collection systemW. The technical parameters and wind speed statistical data of the wind turbines of a certain wind power plant are shown in table 1.
TABLE 1 technical parameters and wind speed statistics of wind turbine
Figure GDA0003469934410000061
The step S1 includes the following sub-steps:
s11, solving and obtaining the average value of the wind speed according to the actual wind speed statistical data
Figure GDA0003469934410000063
And calculating a shape parameter k and a scale parameter c of the Weibull wind speed probability distribution model by adopting a moment method, wherein the standard deviation sigma is as follows:
Figure GDA0003469934410000062
the shape parameter y and the scale parameter c of the Weibull wind speed distribution can be calculated as 2.3928 and 6.3483, respectively, and then a wind speed probability distribution model can be obtained:
Figure GDA0003469934410000071
in the formula: v is the given wind speed, and f (v) represents the percentage of time at the given wind speed.
S12, according to the technical parameters of the wind turbine generator in the table 1, obtaining the output characteristics of the wind turbine generator as follows:
Figure GDA0003469934410000072
in the formula: v. ofci、vco、vrCut-in wind speed, cut-out wind speed and rated wind speed, respectively, P (v) isActive power, P, of the wind turbine at constant wind speedNRated power of a single wind turbine;
s13, considering the influence of the randomness of the wind speed on the output characteristics of the wind generation set, and combining the probability density function of wind speed distribution and the output characteristics of the wind generation set to solve the expected output of a single wind generation set:
Figure GDA0003469934410000073
in the formula: EXsingleThe expected output of a single wind turbine generator is not considered when the generator fault is avoided;
the expected output EX of a single fan of a certain wind power plant can be obtained by solvingsingle347.4073 kW.
S14, considering the fault condition of the unit, calculating expected output EX of multiple fans on the same outlet of the current collection systemWComprises the following steps:
Figure GDA0003469934410000074
in the formula: q. q.swAnd R is the unavailability rate of the wind turbine generators, R is the total number of the wind turbine generators on the same outgoing line of the current collection system, and h is the number of the failed wind turbine generators.
S2: according to the topology of the current collection system and the unavailability of the components, the probability p of successful power transmission of each outgoing line is calculatedCAnd further calculating expected output EX of each outgoing lineC. The reliability parameters of each element of the wind power plant collecting system and the booster station are shown in table 2:
TABLE 2 element reliability parameters
Figure GDA0003469934410000075
The probability p of successfully outputting electric energy of each outgoing line of the current collection system can be calculatedC：
Figure GDA0003469934410000081
In the formula: q. q.sCBFor the availability of the circuit breaker, qTFG is the number of wind turbine generator sets on the outgoing line, q is the transformer unavailabilityeThe unavailability rate of the e-th section of cable on the outgoing line, L is the total section number of the cable on the outgoing line, and the expected output EX of the outgoing lineCComprises the following steps:
EXC＝EXW·pC
it can be calculated that the expected output forces of the current collecting system shown in fig. 4 from left to right 6 outgoing lines are 4.577MW, 1.963MW, 3.264MW, 3.924MW, 3.929MW and 3.928MW respectively.
S3: according to topology of the booster station and the unavailability rate of components, the probability pi of the occurrence of various combinations of electric energy transmitted by the booster station is calculated by using a combined minimum cut-set method, and further the expected output EX of the wind power plant is calculated. The step S3 includes the following sub-steps:
and S31, respectively enabling each outgoing line of the current collection system to be equivalent to a conventional generator set with rated power equal to expected output of the conventional generator set, and taking the conventional generator set as input of the incoming line of the corresponding booster station to obtain the topology of the booster station as shown in the figure 5.
S32, recording m incoming lines of the booster station, wherein k lines can successfully transmit electric energy to the outlet line of the booster station as an event Z, m-k lines cannot successfully transmit electric energy to the outlet line of the booster station as an event W, and respectively obtaining a set C of event Z minimum cut sets by utilizing a combined minimum cut set methodZSet of W minimal cut sets CW(ii) a FIG. 3 is a flow chart of calculating the occurrence probability of each incoming line output combination of the booster station by using a combined minimal cut set method, and solving for C by using the combined minimal cut set methodZAnd CWThe method comprises the following substeps:
s321, solving a set C of minimum cut sets of electric energy successfully output by each incoming line1～C6And is expressed in the form of a matrix, each row of the matrix represents a minimal cut set, each column represents an element in the booster station topology, 1 represents an element of the column contained in the minimal cut set, and 0 represents that the element is not contained;
s322, minimum cutting is carried out on k incoming lines successfully conveying electric energySet C1～CkPerforming union operation to obtain CZ：
CZ＝C1∪C2∪...∪Ck；
S323, for 6-k incoming line minimum cut set C incapable of transmitting electric energyk+1～C6Delete and CZThe minimal cut sets with intersection, the rest components are respectively composed into CSk+1～CS6；
S324, mixing the CSk+1～CS6Adding row vectors from different minimal cut sets pairwise, taking 1 from elements larger than 1, performing union operation on all row vectors obtained by addition, simultaneously abandoning high-order minimal cut sets, and forming C by the rest low-order cut setsW。
S33 obtaining the above-mentioned CZAnd CWThen, respectively to CZAnd CWThe minimal cut set in the process is processed by non-intersection, and the probability p of the occurrence of the event Z and the event W is calculatedZAnd pW；
S34, calculating expected output EX of the combination i by taking k successfully-transmitted electric energy and 6-k incapable-transmitted electric energy as the combination i in 6 incoming lines of the booster stationi：
Figure GDA0003469934410000091
After calculating the output expectation of all possible output combinations, calculating the output expectation of the wind power plant:
Figure GDA0003469934410000092
in the equation, 64 is the combined total of the power delivered for 6 incoming lines of the wind farm. The expected output of a certain wind farm can be calculated to be 21.3078 MW.
S4: calculating reliability indexes of the wind power plant, specifically comprising expected insufficient demand (EDNS), equivalent outage rate Q of the wind power plant, equivalent outage time T of the wind power plant, expected insufficient demand (EDNS)ved, EENS). As shown in FIG. 4, the wind farm has 66 wind turbines in total, and the total installed capacity PGeneral assemblyFor 99MW, the reliability indices are calculated as follows:
insufficient expected power (EDNS):
EDNS＝Pgeneral (1)-EX，
In the formula: pGeneral assemblyThe total installed capacity of the wind power plant;
wind farm equivalent outage rate Q:
Figure GDA0003469934410000093
in the formula: pNRated power of a single wind turbine;
equivalent outage time T of wind power plant:
T＝Q·8760h；
expected insufficient battery (EENS):
EENS＝Pgeneral assembly·T；
According to the fact that the power generation amount in 2016 is 197677MW & h, statistical data of various reliability indexes in 2016 can be obtained. The comparison between the reliability index evaluation value calculated by the method of the present invention and the 2016 reliability index statistic value is shown in table 3.
TABLE 3 reliability evaluation results
Reliability index Evaluating the value Statistical data (2016 year) Error/%)
Wind farm power shortage expected EDNS/MW 77.6922 76.4341 1.65
Wind farm equivalent outage Rate (Q)/% 78.48 77.21 1.65
Annual equivalent outage time T/h 6874.58 6763.26 1.65
Wind power plant electric quantity shortage expected value EENS/(MW h) 680583.42 669563 1.65
Therefore, the error between each reliability index of a certain wind power plant and 2016 statistical data calculated by the evaluation method is only 1.65%, and the reliability of the wind power plant can be objectively and effectively evaluated by the evaluation method.
In the description above, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a thorough understanding of the present invention, however, the present invention may be practiced in other ways than those specifically described herein, and therefore should not be construed as limiting the scope of the present invention.
In conclusion, although the present invention has been described with reference to the preferred embodiments, it should be noted that, although various changes and modifications may be made by those skilled in the art, they should be included in the scope of the present invention unless they depart from the scope of the present invention.

Claims (2)

1. A wind power plant reliability comprehensive evaluation method considering an electric main wiring topology is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, calculating expected output EX of multiple fans on the same outlet wire of the current collection systemW；
S2, calculating expected output EX of each outgoing line of the current collecting systemC；
S3, calculating the expected output EX of the wind power plant considering the topological influence of the booster station;
s4, calculating a reliability index of the wind power plant, wherein the reliability index specifically comprises an expected insufficient power EDNS, an equivalent outage rate Q of the wind power plant, an equivalent outage time T of the wind power plant and an expected insufficient electric quantity EENS, and the reliability index comprises the following steps:
EDNS＝Pgeneral assembly-EX，
In the formula: pGeneral assemblyIs the total installed capacity of the wind farm,
Figure FDA0003469934400000011
T＝Q·8760h，
EENS＝Pgeneral assembly·T；
In the step S1, a wind speed probability distribution model and a fan output model are established according to the wind speed statistical data, the wind turbine technical parameters and the wind turbine fault statistical data, so as to calculate the expected output EX of multiple fans on the same outlet of the current collection systemW；
The step S1 includes the following sub-steps:
s11, solving and obtaining the average value of the wind speed according to the actual wind speed statistical data
Figure FDA0003469934400000014
And calculating a shape parameter y and a scale parameter c of the Weibull wind speed probability distribution model by adopting a moment method, wherein the standard deviation sigma is as follows:
Figure FDA0003469934400000012
in the formula: Γ (x) is a gamma function, and a Weibull wind speed probability distribution model is obtained:
Figure FDA0003469934400000013
in the formula: v is a given wind speed, f (v) represents a percentage of time at the given wind speed;
s12, obtaining the output characteristic of the wind turbine generator according to the technical parameters of the wind turbine generator:
Figure FDA0003469934400000021
in the formula: v. ofci、vco、vrCut-in wind speed, cut-out wind speed and rated wind speed, respectively, P (v) is the active power output by the wind power plant at a given wind speed, PNRated power of a single wind turbine;
s13, considering the influence of the randomness of the wind speed on the output characteristics of the wind generation set, and combining the probability density function of wind speed distribution and the output characteristics of the wind generation set to solve the expected output of a single wind generation set:
Figure FDA0003469934400000022
in the formula: EXsingleThe expected output of a single wind turbine generator is not considered when the generator fault is avoided;
s14, considering the fault condition of the unit, calculating expected output EX of a plurality of fans on the same outlet wire of the current collection systemW：
Figure FDA0003469934400000023
In the formula: q. q.swIn order to ensure the unavailability of the wind turbine,r is the total number of the wind turbine generators on the same outlet wire of the current collection system, and h is the number of the failed wind turbine generators;
in step S2, the probability p of each outgoing line successfully transmitting power is calculated according to the topology of the power collection system and the unavailability of the componentsCAnd further calculating expected output EX of each outgoing lineC；
In step S2, the probability p that each outgoing line successfully transmits electric energyCComprises the following steps:
Figure FDA0003469934400000024
in the formula: q. q.sCBFor the availability of the circuit breaker, qTFG is the number of wind turbine generator sets on the outgoing line, q is the transformer unavailabilityeThe unavailability of the e-th section of the outgoing line is L, the total number of the sections of the outgoing line is L, and b is a b-th wind turbine generator set on the e-th section of the outgoing line; the expected EX of the output of the strip lineCComprises the following steps:
EXC＝EXW·pC；
in step S3, according to the topology of the booster station and the unavailability of the components, the probability p of occurrence of various combinations of the electric power transmitted by the booster station is calculated by using the combined minimal cut-set methodiFurther calculating expected output EX of the wind power plant;
the step S3 includes the following sub-steps:
s31, respectively enabling each outgoing line of the current collection system to be equivalent to a conventional generator set with rated power equal to expected output of the conventional generator set, and taking the conventional generator set as input of the incoming line of the corresponding booster station;
s32, recording m incoming lines of the booster station, wherein k outgoing lines of the booster station, to which electric energy can be successfully transmitted, are events Z, m-k outgoing lines of the booster station, to which electric energy cannot be successfully transmitted, are events W, and respectively obtaining a set C of event Z minimum cut sets by utilizing a combined minimum cut set methodZSet of W minimal cut sets CW；
S33, for C respectivelyZAnd CWThe minimal cut set in the process is processed by non-intersection, and the probability p of the occurrence of the event Z and the event W is calculatedZAnd pW；
S34, in m inlet wires of the booster station, calculating expected output EX of the combination i by taking k successfully-transmitted electric energy and m-k incapable-transmitted electric energy as the combination ii：
Figure FDA0003469934400000031
In the formula: EXCjDenotes the j-th line-in force expectation, piAnd the output expectation EX of the wind power plant is the probability of the ith combination:
Figure FDA0003469934400000032
in the formula, n is the total combined number of m incoming lines of the wind power plant for transmitting electric energy.
2. The method for comprehensively evaluating reliability of a wind farm in consideration of an electrical main wiring topology according to claim 1, characterized in that: in the sub-step S32, the C is determined by using the combined minimal cut set methodZAnd CWThe method comprises the following substeps:
s321, solving a set C of minimum cut sets of electric energy successfully output by each incoming line1、C2，…，Ck，…，CmAnd is expressed in a matrix form, each row of the matrix represents a minimal cut set, each column represents an element in the booster station topology, 1 represents an element of the column in the minimal cut set, and 0 represents that the element is not contained;
s322, k incoming line minimum cut set C for successfully transmitting electric energy1～CkPerforming union operation to obtain CZ：
CZ＝C1∪C2∪...∪Ck
S323, m-k incoming line minimum cut set C incapable of transmitting electric energyk+1～CmDelete and CZMinimal cut sets with intersections, the remainder comprisingRespectively form CSk+1～CSm；
S324, mixing the CSk+1～CSmAdding row vectors from different minimal cut sets pairwise, taking 1 from elements larger than 1, performing union operation on all row vectors obtained by addition, simultaneously abandoning high-order minimal cut sets, and forming C by the rest low-order cut setsW。
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