CN105204489A - Online prevention and control risk decision-making method considering protection and security automatic control cost - Google Patents

Abstract

The invention discloses an online prevention and control risk decision-making method considering the protection and security automatic control cost, and belongs to the technical field of electric power system dispatching operation control. The online prevention and control risk decision-making method adopts a calculation strategy that online security and stability prevention and control optimization measure calculation considering operation behaviors of a protection device and a security automatic device is carried out preferentially on anticipated faults with high risk cost caused by actions, which are directly triggered by the anticipated faults, of the protection device and the security automatic device until the sum of the prevention and control cost and the control risk cost of the protection device and the security automatic device reaches a minimum value, so that the difficulty in weighing the calculation speed and the calculation precision of the dispatching operation personnel in setting an anticipated fault set is overcome, and the dispatching operation personnel can acquire online prevention and control optimization measures capable of effectively reducing the actual operating risk of a power grid by only setting anticipated faults as many as possible according to a descending order of the anticipated fault occurrence probability.

Description

Take into account protection with peace from the online preventive control Application of risk decision method controlling cost

Technical field

The invention belongs to electric power system dispatching and run control technology field; more precisely, the present invention relates to a kind of online preventive control Study on Decision-making Method for Optimization being applicable to unified consideration and comprising the risk control Least-cost in the defence line, electricity net safety stable each road of equipment protection.

Background technology

Along with the expansion of electrical network scale, on a large scale transmission of electricity scale and intermittence new energy power generation grid-connection scale, the operation characteristic of electrical network becomes increasingly complex, and relies on off-line analysis completely and arranges the management and running control model of the method for operation can not meet the requirement of electricity net safety stable economical operation.In recent years, on-line security and stability analysis and decision-making function become the important means that management and running control gradually, and it is that management and running personnel are arranged by rule of thumb that existing safety on line stablizes forecast failure collection that prevention and control Optimal Decision-making defends or probability of happening is greater than the set of the forecast failure composition of setting value (probability that such as N-1 fault occurs).

Operation of power networks risk refers to the operation of power networks risk sum that all each faults contingent cause; the operation of power networks risk caused because of single fault refers to that the product of loss and this fault rate caused afterwards occurs this fault; wherein, the loss that the non-primary fault protective device action after the loss that the loss that fault causes comprises loss that the protective device action because of primary fault causes, cause from device action because of the peace after primary fault and fault caused by dynamic process and fault caused by dynamic process causes.In order to reduce operation of power networks risk, then need to compare Control Measure implement before and after the change of operation of power networks risk, assess the Optimal performance of Control Measure according to the difference of the reduction of operation of power networks risk and both enforcement costs of Control Measure.

All contingent number of defects are infinitely great in theory, therefore, directly by calculating the operation of power networks risk that all each faults contingent cause, assess the Optimal performance of Control Measure, be infeasible, a kind of calculative strategy must be proposed, neither need to carry out computational analysis to all contingent faults, can ensure that again the Control Measure calculated can reduce operation of power networks risk, and there is reasonable Optimal performance.By rule of thumb existing or the processing mode of forecast failure collection is set according to probability threshold value, there is very strong human factor, the contradiction between computing velocity and computational accuracy can not be weighed.In addition, existing safety and stability online preventive control Optimal Decision-making technology usually only using prevention and control Least-cost as optimization aim, not using protective device and peace from the control cost of device and prevention and control cost sum as risk control target.As for existing prevention and control and emergency control coordination optimizing method; although consider the control cost of prevention and control cost and second security perimeter; but do not take into account the control cost of protective device and the 3rd road security perimeter; equally also can only process the fault set that management and running personnel preset; when in fault set, the number of defects is larger, computing velocity can not meet the requirement of on-line operation.

Summary of the invention

The present invention seeks to: for deficiency of the prior art; a kind of electricity net safety stable online preventive control Study on Decision-making Method for Optimization based on risk is provided; can not only avoid weighing the contradiction between computing velocity and computational accuracy; reduce forecast failure collection and degree of dependence to scheduling operations staff is set, and can using protective device and peace from the value of risk of device action and the minimum target as operation of power networks risk control of prevention and control cost sum.

Ultimate principle of the present invention is: along with forecast failure concentrates the increase of the number of defects, if do not consider prevention and control, then because protective device and peace will increase from the loss cost of device action; Along with forecast failure concentrates the increase of the number of defects, if keep protective device and pacify constant from the loss cost of device action, then the adjustment cost of prevention and control will increase.Under normal circumstances, if the descending sequence of value of risk that the fault concentrated by forecast failure causes from device action with peace because of the protective device that forecast failure directly triggers by it, when forecast failure concentrates the number of defects smaller, the speed increased from the value of risk of device action because of protective device and peace under the condition not considering prevention and control is greater than in the speed keeping the adjustment cost increase of prevention and control under the constant condition of the value of risk of device action of protective device and peace; When forecast failure concentrates the number of defects larger, the speed increased from the value of risk of device action because of protective device and peace under the condition not considering prevention and control is less than in the speed keeping the adjustment cost increase of prevention and control under the constant condition of the loss cost of device action of protective device and peace.Therefore, according to preferentially carrying out taking into account protective device for the preceding forecast failure of sequence, pacify and stablize the calculating of prevention and control Optimized Measures from the safety on line of device running status and action model and parameter, until prevention and control cost with take into account the protective device of forecast failure probability of happening and pacify and reach minimizing calculative strategy from the value of risk sum of device action, then can not only avoid weighing the contradiction between computing velocity and computational accuracy, reduction forecast failure collection arranges the degree of dependence to scheduling operations staff, and the online preventive control Optimized Measures effectively reducing electrical network actual motion risk can be obtained.

Specifically, the present invention realizes by the following technical solutions, comprises the steps:

1) based on the current running status of electrical network and device model and parameter, generate reflection electrical network current operating conditions, for the flow data of electricity net safety stable on-line analysis and stable data, again in conjunction with electrical network information of forecasting and plan information, generate prevention and control candidate measure collection, respectively as up-to-date generation operation of power networks section tidal current data, stablize data and prevention and control candidate measure collection, and the moment corresponding to operation of power networks section is designated as t ₀, enter step 2);

Described prevention and control candidate measure collection to refer under the current method of operation that optional prevention and control equipment and control variable thereof, controlling party are to the set with controlled amounts maximal value;

2) probability that forecast failure occurs is greater than the threshold value p preset _crthe set of forecast failure be designated as forecast failure collection F ₀, enter step 3);

Described forecast failure refers to that electrical network is at t ₀to (t ₀+ Δ t _f) period in the combination of one or more equipment failures contingent;

The probability that described forecast failure occurs refers to that electrical network is at t ₀to (t ₀+ Δ t _f) period in this forecast failure occur number of times;

Wherein, Δ t _ffor the prevention and control defence duration of setting;

3) based on operation of power networks section tidal current data and the stable data of up-to-date generation, cluster Computing Platform is adopted, respectively for F ₀in each forecast failure, take into account protective device and the running status of pacifying from device and model and parameter thereof, calculate the protective device because forecast failure directly triggers by formula (1) and pacify the value of risk caused from device action, entering step 4);

L _rc.i＝(L _r.i+L _c.i)p _f.ii＝1,2,…,n(1)

In formula, n is F ₀the number of middle forecast failure, L _r.ifor F under the operation of power networks state corresponding to the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation ₀in i-th forecast failure occur after the loss cost that causes of the protective device action that directly triggers because of forecast failure, L _c.ifor F under the operation of power networks state corresponding to the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation ₀in i-th forecast failure occur after the loss cost that causes from device action of the peace that directly triggers because of forecast failure, p _f.ifor F ₀in the probability that occurs of i-th forecast failure, L _rc.ifor F under the operation of power networks state corresponding to the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation ₀in i-th forecast failure occur after the protective device that directly triggers because of forecast failure and pacify the value of risk caused from device action;

4) the descending order of probability occurred according to forecast failure is to F ₀in all forecast failures sort, obtain forecast failure sequencing table, wherein for the identical forecast failure of probability of happening then according to step 3) in the descending order of the value of risk of forecast failure that calculates determine between the forecast failure that these probability of happening are identical order, enter step 5);

5) online preventive control Optimized Measures collection C is set _pfor empty set, forecast failure sequence pointer i is set _sbe 0, calculation flag I is set _cbe 0, enter step 6);

Described online preventive control Optimized Measures collection refers to that prevention and control equipment selected under the current method of operation and control variable thereof, controlling party are to the set with final controlled quentity controlled variable;

6) if current time t and t ₀difference be less than the prevention and control Optimal Decision-making duration limit value Δ t of setting _c, enter step 7), otherwise, by C _pmanagement and running personnel are submitted to, method ends as final online preventive control Optimized Measures collection;

Wherein, Δ t _cbe less than Δ t _f;

7) if i _sbe less than n, then according to the sequence of forecast failure in forecast failure sequencing table, will sort from (i _s+ 1) position starts until min{i _s+ max [int (k _pn _p), 1], n] altogether { min{i of position _s+ max [int (k _pn _p), 1], n]-i _sthe set of individual forecast failure is designated as F _c, and by i _sbe set to min{i _s+ max [int (k _pn _p), 1], n], enter step 8), otherwise, by C _pmanagement and running personnel are submitted to, method ends as final online preventive control Optimized Measures collection;

Wherein, n _pfor total check figure of all CPU in the cluster Computing Platform that calculates for electricity net safety stable online preventive control Optimal Decision-making, k _pfor setting be less than 1 parameter;

8) based on operation of power networks section tidal current data and the stable data of up-to-date generation, cluster Computing Platform is adopted, respectively for F _cin each forecast failure, calculate the loss cost L that the protective device action that directly triggers because of forecast failure causes _r, and take into account protective device and peace from the running status of device and model and parameter thereof, the electricity net safety stable time-domain-simulation carried out under forecast failure calculates, and calculates because the loss cost L that causes occurs forecast failure _f, enter step 9);

9) if F _cmiddle L _fbe greater than L _rforecast failure number be 0, then return step 6); Otherwise, by F _cmiddle L _fbe greater than L _rthe set of forecast failure be designated as F _p0, by F _cin except F _p0the set of the forecast failure outside middle forecast failure is designated as F _s0, calculate F by formula (2) _p0in each forecast failure occur after the value of risk summation SL that causes _fp0, and set up set F _p, by F _pinitial value be set to F _p0, by F _pin each forecast failure occur after the value of risk summation SL that causes _fpinitial value be set to SL _fp0, enter step 10):

${\mathrm{SL}}_{fp0}=\underset{k=1}{\overset{m_{p0}}{\Σ}}\left(L_{fp0.k}{p}_{fp0.k}\right)---\left(2\right)$

In formula, m _p0for F _p0the sum of middle forecast failure, L _fp0.kfor step 8) in the F that calculates _p0the loss cost caused after a middle kth forecast failure occurs, p _fp0.kfor F _p0the probability that a middle kth forecast failure occurs;

10) by F _s0with F _punion be designated as F _s, adopt cluster Computing Platform, based on up-to-date generation flow data, stablize data and prevention and control candidate measure collection, take into account F _sin the L of each forecast failure _fwith L _rconstraint condition equal respectively, the Optimal Decision-making carrying out electricity net safety stable Control Measure calculates; If be met F _sin the prevention and control Optimized Measures increment collection Δ C of each forecast failure safety and stability _p, then step 12 is entered), otherwise calculation flag I is set _cbe 1, enter step 11);

Described prevention and control Optimized Measures increment collection refers to that selected prevention and control equipment and control variable thereof, controlling party are to the set with controlled quentity controlled variable increment;

11) if F _pthe total m of middle forecast failure _pbe greater than the forecast failure number of setting and SL _fpwith SL _fp0ratio be greater than setting value λ, then first press the sequence of forecast failure in forecast failure sequencing table, from F _pposterior int (the m of middle rejecting sequence _p/ 2) individual forecast failure, obtains the F after upgrading _pand m _p, then calculate SL by formula (3) _fp, return step 10); Otherwise by C _pmanagement and running personnel are submitted to, method ends as final online preventive control Optimized Measures collection:

${\mathrm{SL}}_{fp}=\underset{j=1}{\overset{m_p}{\Σ}}\left(L_{fp.j}{p}_{fp.j}\right)---\left(3\right)$

In formula, L _fp.jfor step 8) in the F that calculates _pthe loss cost caused after a middle jth forecast failure occurs, p _fp.jfor F _pthe probability that a middle jth forecast failure occurs;

12) based on the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation, in conjunction with running status and the model and parameter thereof of protective device under the current method of operation, F is calculated by formula (4) ₀in each forecast failure occur after the value of risk summation SL that causes of the protective device action that directly triggers because of forecast failure _r; F is calculated by formula (5) _pin each forecast failure occur after the value of risk summation SL that produces except the value of risk that the protective device action directly triggered because of forecast failure causes _frp, enter step 13);

${\mathrm{SL}}_r=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}\left(L_{r.i}{p}_{f.i}\right)---\left(4\right)$

${\mathrm{SL}}_{frp}=\underset{j=1}{\overset{m_p}{\Σ}}\[(L_{fp.j}-L_{rp.j})p_{fp.j}\]---\left(5\right)$

In formula, L _r.ifor F under the operation of power networks state corresponding to the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation ₀in i-th forecast failure occur after the loss cost that causes of the protective device action that directly triggers because of forecast failure, p _f.ifor F ₀in the probability that occurs of i-th forecast failure; L _fp.jfor step 8) in the F that calculates _pthe loss cost caused after a middle jth forecast failure occurs, L _rp.jfor step 8) in the F that calculates _pthe loss cost that the protective device action directly triggered because of forecast failure after a middle jth forecast failure occurs causes, p _fp.jfor F _pthe probability that a middle jth forecast failure occurs;

13) in the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation and the basis of stable data, generate and implement Δ C _pflow data afterwards and stable data, for upgrading the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation and stable data, enter step 14);

14) based on the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation; in conjunction with running status and the model and parameter thereof of protective device under the current method of operation, calculate step 13 by formula (6)) F under the operation of power networks state corresponding to operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation that obtains ₀in each forecast failure occur after the value of risk summation SL' that causes of the protective device action that directly triggers because of forecast failure _r, enter step 15);

${\mathrm{SL}}_r^{,}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}\left(L_{r.i}^{,}{p}_{f.i}\right)---\left(6\right)$

In formula, L' _r.ifor in step 13) F under the operation of power networks state corresponding to operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation that obtains ₀in i-th forecast failure occur after the loss cost that causes of the protective device action that directly triggers because of forecast failure, p _f.ifor F ₀in the probability that occurs of i-th forecast failure;

15) calculating implements C under the current method of operation of electrical network _pwith Δ C _pthe adjustment cost paid and step 14) in the SL' that calculates _rboth sums, only implement C if should and be less than or equal under the current method of operation of electrical network _pthe adjustment cost paid and step 12) SL that calculates _rand SL _frpthree's sum, then enter step 16), otherwise, return step 11);

16) according to Δ C _pin selected each Control Measure respectively to C _pafter being handled as follows, enter step 17):

If Δ C _pin the prevention and control equipment of selected Control Measure and control variable thereof at C _pin exist, then by C relevant for the prevention and control equipment and control variable thereof to this selected Control Measure _pin final controlled quentity controlled variable and Δ C _pin controlled quentity controlled variable increment sum for upgrading C _pin final controlled quentity controlled variable, otherwise, add the prevention and control equipment of this selected Control Measure and control variable thereof, controlling party to C as the prevention and control equipment of newly-increased prevention and control Optimized Measures and control variable thereof, controlling party to final controlled quentity controlled variable to controlled quentity controlled variable increment _pin;

17) if I _cbe 0, enter step 18), otherwise, by C _pmanagement and running personnel are submitted to, method ends as final online preventive control Optimized Measures collection;

18) according to Δ C _pin after each selected Control Measure is handled as follows the prevention and control candidate measure collection of up-to-date generation respectively, return step 6):

The first step, if Δ C _pin the prevention and control equipment of selected Control Measure and control variable thereof select first, then concentrate from the prevention and control candidate measure of up-to-date generation and reject from the prevention and control equipment of this Control Measure and the identical but controlling party of control variable thereof to different candidate's measures;

Second step, concentrates from the prevention and control candidate measure of up-to-date generation and searches and Δ C _pin the prevention and control equipment of selected Control Measure and the identical candidate's measure of control variable thereof, if the controlled amounts maximal value of this candidate's measure and Δ C _pin the controlled quentity controlled variable increment of selected Control Measure equal, then concentrate from the prevention and control candidate measure of up-to-date generation and reject this candidate's measure, otherwise, adopt controlled amounts maximal value and the Δ C of this candidate's measure _pin the difference of both controlled quentity controlled variable increments of selected Control Measure upgrade the controlled amounts maximal value of this candidate's measure.

Technique scheme is further characterized in that, described step 2) in threshold value p _crget 1/10th of the minimum value of probability of happening in all faults that in " guiding rules of power system safety and stability ", second security perimeter is defendd.

Technique scheme is further characterized in that, described step 2) in Δ t _fbe set to 15 minutes.

Technique scheme is further characterized in that, described step 6) in Δ t _cbe set to 5 minutes.

Technique scheme is further characterized in that, described step 7) in k _pbe set to 0.9.

Technique scheme is further characterized in that, described step 11) in forecast failure number be greater than 1 odd number.

Technique scheme is further characterized in that, described step 11) in forecast failure number be set to 5.

Technique scheme is further characterized in that, described step 11) in setting value λ be set to 0.2.

Beneficial effect of the present invention is as follows: the present invention undertakies taking into account protective device by the forecast failure adopting the value of risk that preferentially causes from device action for the protective device directly triggered because of forecast failure and peace large, pacify and stablize prevention and control Optimized Measures from the safety on line of device running status and action model and parameter and calculate, until search prevention and control cost and take into account the protective device of forecast failure probability of happening and pacify and reach minimizing calculative strategy from the value of risk sum of device action.Compared with the calculated amount stablizing time-domain-simulation with once safety, the value of risk calculated amount that the protective device directly triggered by forecast failure increased because forecast failure increases and peace cause from device action can be ignored.Therefore, the present invention can overcome management and running personnel and weigh difficulty between computing velocity and computational accuracy when arranging forecast failure collection, management and running personnel only need the order according to the probability of forecast failure generation is descending to arrange forecast failure as much as possible, just can obtain the online preventive control Optimized Measures effectively reducing electrical network actual motion risk.

Accompanying drawing explanation

Fig. 1 is the process flow diagram of the inventive method step 1-step 9.

Fig. 2 is the process flow diagram of the inventive method step 10-step 18.

Embodiment

With reference to the accompanying drawings the present invention is described in further detail.

What in Fig. 1, step 1 described is based on the current running status of electrical network and device model and parameter, generate reflection electrical network current operating conditions, for the flow data of electricity net safety stable on-line analysis and stable data, again in conjunction with electrical network information of forecasting and plan information, generate prevention and control candidate measure collection, respectively as up-to-date generation operation of power networks section tidal current data, stablize data and prevention and control candidate measure collection, and the moment corresponding to operation of power networks section is designated as t ₀, enter step 2;

Described prevention and control candidate measure collection to refer under the current method of operation that optional prevention and control equipment and control variable thereof, controlling party are to the set with controlled amounts maximal value.

What in Fig. 1, step 2 described is that the probability that forecast failure occurs is greater than threshold value p _cr(in all faults that second security perimeter is defendd in usual desirable power industry standard " guiding rules of power system safety and stability " probability of happening minimum value 1/10th) the set of forecast failure be designated as forecast failure collection F ₀, enter step 3;

Described forecast failure refers to that electrical network is at t ₀to (t ₀+ Δ t _f) period in the combination of one or more equipment failures contingent;

The probability that described forecast failure occurs refers to that electrical network is at t ₀to (t ₀+ Δ t _f) period in this forecast failure occur number of times;

Wherein, Δ t _ffor prevention and control defence duration (being usually set to 15 minutes) of setting.

What in Fig. 1, step 3 described is operation of power networks section tidal current data based on up-to-date generation and stable data, adopts cluster Computing Platform, respectively for F ₀in each forecast failure, take into account protective device and peace from the running status of device and model and parameter thereof, calculate the protective device because forecast failure directly triggers by formula (1) and pacify the value of risk caused from device action, entering step 4;

L _rc.i＝(L _r.i+L _c.i)p _f.ii＝1,2,…,n(1)

In formula, n is F ₀the number of middle forecast failure, L _r.ifor F under the operation of power networks state corresponding to the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation ₀in i-th forecast failure occur after the loss cost that causes of the protective device action that directly triggers because of forecast failure, L _c.ifor F under the operation of power networks state corresponding to the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation ₀in i-th forecast failure occur after the loss cost that causes from device action of the peace that directly triggers because of forecast failure, p _f.ifor F ₀in the probability that occurs of i-th forecast failure, L _rc.ifor F under the operation of power networks state corresponding to the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation ₀in i-th forecast failure occur after the protective device that directly triggers because of forecast failure and pacify the value of risk caused from device action;

The loss cost that the described protective device action directly triggered because of forecast failure causes refers to the loss cost that the protective device of each equipment failure in this forecast failure of defence causes because of the direct trigger action of equipment failure, such as, have 3 equipment failures in forecast failure, then the loss cost that the protective device action directly triggered because of this forecast failure causes refers to the total losses cost that the protective device action of these 3 equipment failures of defence causes;

The described peace directly triggered because of forecast failure refers to the peace of each equipment failure combination in this forecast failure of defence from device because the loss cost that direct trigger action causes is combined in equipment failure from the loss cost that device action causes, such as, there are 3 equipment failures in forecast failure, peace only defends the combined fault of wherein two equipment failures from device, the peace then directly triggered because of this forecast failure refers to the total losses cost of defending the peace of the combined fault of these two equipment failures to cause from device action from the loss cost that device action causes, the total losses cost that the protective device action wherein not comprising these 3 equipment failures of defence causes,

If containing equipment malfunction fault in forecast failure, then the loss cost caused because of equipment malfunction is accumulated in the loss cost that the protective device action that directly triggers because of this forecast failure causes;

It should be added that the calculating of above loss cost is based on operation of power networks state, the time-domain-simulation not needing to carry out under forecast failure calculates.

The descending order of probability that what in Fig. 1, step 4 described is occurs according to forecast failure is to F ₀in all forecast failures sort, obtain forecast failure sequencing table, wherein for the identical forecast failure of probability of happening then according to step 3) in the descending order of the value of risk of forecast failure that calculates determine between the forecast failure that these probability of happening are identical order, enter step 5.

What in Fig. 1, step 5 described is arrange online preventive control Optimized Measures collection C _pfor empty set, forecast failure sequence pointer i is set _sbe 0, calculation flag I is set _cbe 0, enter step 6;

Described online preventive control Optimized Measures collection refers to that prevention and control equipment selected under the current method of operation and control variable thereof, controlling party are to the set with final controlled quentity controlled variable.

If that in Fig. 1, step 6 describes is current time t and t ₀difference be less than the prevention and control Optimal Decision-making duration limit value Δ t of setting _c, enter step 7, otherwise, by C _pmanagement and running personnel are submitted to, method ends as final online preventive control Optimized Measures collection;

Wherein, Δ t _cbe less than Δ t _f, be usually set to 5 minutes.

If that in Fig. 1, step 7 describes is i _sbe less than n, then according to the sequence of forecast failure in forecast failure sequencing table, will sort from (i _s+ 1) position starts until min{i _s+ max [int (k _pn _p), 1], n] altogether { min{i of position _s+ max [int (k _pn _p), 1], n]-i _sthe set of individual forecast failure is designated as F _c, and by i _sbe set to min{i _s+ max [int (k _pn _p), 1], n], enter step 8, otherwise, by C _pmanagement and running personnel are submitted to, method ends as final online preventive control Optimized Measures collection;

Wherein, n _pfor total check figure of all CPU in the cluster Computing Platform that calculates for electricity net safety stable online preventive control Optimal Decision-making, k _pfor setting be less than 1 parameter (being usually set to 0.9).

What in Fig. 1, step 8 described is operation of power networks section tidal current data based on up-to-date generation and stable data, adopts cluster Computing Platform, respectively for F _cin each forecast failure, calculate the loss cost L that the protective device action that directly triggers because of forecast failure causes _r, and take into account protective device and peace from the running status of device and model and parameter thereof, the electricity net safety stable time-domain-simulation carried out under forecast failure calculates, and calculates because the loss cost L that causes occurs forecast failure _f, enter step 9.

It should be added that L _rcalculating based on operation of power networks state, the time-domain-simulation not needing to carry out under forecast failure calculates, L _fcalculating be based under forecast failure time-domain-simulation calculate; not only comprise the protective device of this forecast failure of defence and pacify the loss cost that causes from device action, also comprise the protective device of successive relay trip in the dynamic process caused because of this forecast failure and pacify the loss cost caused from device.

If that in Fig. 1, step 9 describes is F _cmiddle L _fbe greater than L _rforecast failure number be 0, then return step 6; Otherwise, by F _cmiddle L _fbe greater than L _rthe set of forecast failure be designated as F _p0, by F _cin except F _p0the set of the forecast failure outside middle forecast failure is designated as F _s0, calculate F by formula (2) _p0in each forecast failure occur after the value of risk summation SL that causes _fp0, and set up set F _p, by F _pinitial value be set to F _p0, by F _pin each forecast failure occur after the value of risk summation SL that causes _fpinitial value be set to SL _fp0, enter step 10:

${\mathrm{SL}}_{fp0}=\underset{k=1}{\overset{m_{p0}}{\Σ}}\left(L_{fp0.k}{p}_{fp0.k}\right)---\left(2\right)$

In formula, m _p0for F _p0the sum of middle forecast failure, L _fp0.kfor the F calculated in step 8 _p0the loss cost caused after a middle kth forecast failure occurs, p _fp0.kfor F _p0the probability that a middle kth forecast failure occurs.

What in Fig. 2, step 10 described is by F _s0with F _punion be designated as F _s, adopt cluster Computing Platform, based on up-to-date generation flow data, stablize data and prevention and control candidate measure collection, take into account F _sin the L of each forecast failure _fwith L _rconstraint condition equal respectively, the Optimal Decision-making carrying out electricity net safety stable Control Measure calculates; If be met F _sin the prevention and control Optimized Measures increment collection Δ C of each forecast failure safety and stability _p, then enter step 12, otherwise calculation flag I be set _cbe 1, enter step 11;

Described prevention and control Optimized Measures increment collection refers to that selected prevention and control equipment and control variable thereof, controlling party are to the set with controlled quentity controlled variable increment.

If that in Fig. 2, step 11 describes is F _pthe total m of middle forecast failure _pbe greater than the forecast failure number (be greater than the odd number of 1, be usually set to 5) of setting and SL _fpwith SL _fp0ratio be greater than setting value λ (being usually set to 0.2), then first press the sequence of forecast failure in forecast failure sequencing table, from F _pposterior int (the m of middle rejecting sequence _p/ 2) individual forecast failure, obtains the F after upgrading _pand m _p, then calculate SL by formula (3) _fp, return step 10, otherwise, by C _pmanagement and running personnel are submitted to, method ends as final online preventive control Optimized Measures collection:

${\mathrm{SL}}_{fp}=\underset{j=1}{\overset{m_p}{\Σ}}\left(L_{fp.j}{p}_{fp.j}\right)---\left(3\right)$

In formula, L _fp.jfor the F calculated in step 8 _pthe loss cost caused after a middle jth forecast failure occurs, p _fp.jfor F _pthe probability that a middle jth forecast failure occurs.

What in Fig. 2, step 12 described is operation of power networks section tidal current data based on up-to-date generation, in conjunction with running status and the model and parameter thereof of protective device under the current method of operation, calculates F by formula (4) ₀in each forecast failure occur after the value of risk summation SL that causes of the protective device action that directly triggers because of forecast failure _r; F is calculated by formula (5) _pin each forecast failure occur after the value of risk summation SL that produces except the value of risk that the protective device action directly triggered because of forecast failure causes _frp, enter step 13;

${\mathrm{SL}}_r=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}\left(L_{r.i}{p}_{f.i}\right)---\left(4\right)$

${\mathrm{SL}}_{frp}=\underset{j=1}{\overset{m_p}{\Σ}}\[(L_{fp.j}-L_{rp.j})p_{fp.j}\]---\left(5\right)$

In formula, L _r.ifor F under the operation of power networks state corresponding to the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation ₀in i-th forecast failure occur after the loss cost that causes of the protective device action that directly triggers because of forecast failure, p _f.ifor F ₀in the probability that occurs of i-th forecast failure; L _fp.jfor the F calculated in step 8 _pthe loss cost caused after a middle jth forecast failure occurs, L _rp.jfor the F calculated in step 8 _pthe loss cost that the protective device action directly triggered because of forecast failure after a middle jth forecast failure occurs causes, p _fp.jfor F _pthe probability that a middle jth forecast failure occurs.

What in Fig. 2, step 13 described is in the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation and the basis of stable data, generates and implements Δ C _pflow data afterwards and stable data, for upgrading the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation and stable data, enter step 14.

What in Fig. 2, step 14 described is operation of power networks section tidal current data based on up-to-date generation; in conjunction with running status and the model and parameter thereof of protective device under the current method of operation, calculate step 13 by formula (6)) F under the operation of power networks state corresponding to operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation that obtains ₀in each forecast failure occur after the value of risk summation SL' that causes of the protective device action that directly triggers because of forecast failure _r, enter step 15;

${\mathrm{SL}}_r^{,}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}\left(L_{r.i}^{,}{p}_{f.i}\right)---\left(6\right)$

In formula, L' _r.if under operation of power networks state corresponding to the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation that obtain in step 13 ₀in i-th forecast failure occur after the loss cost that causes of the protective device action that directly triggers because of forecast failure, p _f.ifor F ₀in the probability that occurs of i-th forecast failure.

What in Fig. 2, step 15 described is calculate to implement C under the current method of operation of electrical network _pwith Δ C _pthe SL' calculated in the adjustment cost paid and step 14 _rboth sums, only implement C if should and be less than or equal under the current method of operation of electrical network _pthe SL that the adjustment cost paid and step 12 calculate _rand SL _frpthree's sum, then enter step 16, otherwise, return step 11.

What in Fig. 2, step 16 described is according to Δ C _pin selected each Control Measure respectively to C _pafter being handled as follows, enter step 17:

If Δ C _pin the prevention and control equipment of selected Control Measure and control variable thereof at C _pin exist, then by C relevant for the prevention and control equipment and control variable thereof to this selected Control Measure _pin final controlled quentity controlled variable and Δ C _pin controlled quentity controlled variable increment sum for upgrading C _pin final controlled quentity controlled variable, otherwise, add the prevention and control equipment of this selected Control Measure and control variable thereof, controlling party to C as the prevention and control equipment of newly-increased prevention and control Optimized Measures and control variable thereof, controlling party to final controlled quentity controlled variable to controlled quentity controlled variable increment _pin.

If that in Fig. 2, step 17 describes is I _cbe 0, enter step 18, otherwise, by C _pmanagement and running personnel are submitted to, method ends as final online preventive control Optimized Measures collection.

What in Fig. 2, step 18 described is according to Δ C _pin after each selected Control Measure is handled as follows the prevention and control candidate measure collection of up-to-date generation respectively, return step 6:

The first step, if Δ C _pin the prevention and control equipment of selected Control Measure and control variable thereof select first, then concentrate from the prevention and control candidate measure of up-to-date generation and reject from the prevention and control equipment of this Control Measure and the identical but controlling party of control variable thereof to different candidate's measures;

Second step, concentrates from the prevention and control candidate measure of up-to-date generation and searches and Δ C _pin the prevention and control equipment of selected Control Measure and the identical candidate's measure of control variable thereof, if the controlled amounts maximal value of this candidate's measure and Δ C _pin the controlled quentity controlled variable increment of selected Control Measure equal, then concentrate from the prevention and control candidate measure of up-to-date generation and reject this candidate's measure, otherwise, adopt controlled amounts maximal value and the Δ C of this candidate's measure _pin the difference of both controlled quentity controlled variable increments of selected Control Measure upgrade the controlled amounts maximal value of this candidate's measure.

Although the present invention with preferred embodiment openly as above, embodiment is not of the present invention for limiting.Without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention, any equivalence change done or retouching, belong to the protection domain of the present invention equally.Therefore the content that protection scope of the present invention should define with the claim of the application is standard.

Claims (8)

1. taking into account protection and the online preventive control Application of risk decision method of pacifying from controlling cost, it is characterized in that, comprise the following steps:

1) based on the current running status of electrical network and device model and parameter, generate reflection electrical network current operating conditions, for the flow data of electricity net safety stable on-line analysis and stable data, again in conjunction with electrical network information of forecasting and plan information, generate prevention and control candidate measure collection, respectively as up-to-date generation operation of power networks section tidal current data, stablize data and prevention and control candidate measure collection, and the moment corresponding to operation of power networks section is designated as t ₀, enter step 2);

Described prevention and control candidate measure collection to refer under the current method of operation that optional prevention and control equipment and control variable thereof, controlling party are to the set with controlled amounts maximal value;

2) probability that forecast failure occurs is greater than the threshold value p preset _crthe set of forecast failure be designated as forecast failure collection F ₀, enter step 3);

Described forecast failure refers to that electrical network is at t ₀to (t ₀+ Δ t _f) period in the combination of one or more equipment failures contingent;

The probability that described forecast failure occurs refers to that electrical network is at t ₀to (t ₀+ Δ t _f) period in this forecast failure occur number of times;

Wherein, Δ t _ffor the prevention and control defence duration of setting;

3) based on operation of power networks section tidal current data and the stable data of up-to-date generation, cluster Computing Platform is adopted, respectively for F ₀in each forecast failure, take into account protective device and the running status of pacifying from device and model and parameter thereof, calculate the protective device because forecast failure directly triggers by formula (1) and pacify the value of risk caused from device action, entering step 4);

L _rc.i＝(L _r.i+L _c.i)p _f.ii＝1,2,…,n(1)

In formula, n is F ₀the number of middle forecast failure, L _r.ifor F under the operation of power networks state corresponding to the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation ₀in i-th forecast failure occur after the loss cost that causes of the protective device action that directly triggers because of forecast failure, L _c.ifor F under the operation of power networks state corresponding to the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation ₀in i-th forecast failure occur after the loss cost that causes from device action of the peace that directly triggers because of forecast failure, p _f.ifor F ₀in the probability that occurs of i-th forecast failure, L _rc.ifor F under the operation of power networks state corresponding to the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation ₀in i-th forecast failure occur after the protective device that directly triggers because of forecast failure and pacify the value of risk caused from device action;

4) the descending order of probability occurred according to forecast failure is to F ₀in all forecast failures sort, obtain forecast failure sequencing table, wherein for the identical forecast failure of probability of happening then according to step 3) in the descending order of the value of risk of forecast failure that calculates determine between the forecast failure that these probability of happening are identical order, enter step 5);

5) online preventive control Optimized Measures collection C is set _pfor empty set, forecast failure sequence pointer i is set _sbe 0, calculation flag I is set _cbe 0, enter step 6);

Described online preventive control Optimized Measures collection refers to that prevention and control equipment selected under the current method of operation and control variable thereof, controlling party are to the set with final controlled quentity controlled variable;

6) if current time t and t ₀difference be less than the prevention and control Optimal Decision-making duration limit value Δ t of setting _c, enter step 7), otherwise, by C _pmanagement and running personnel are submitted to, method ends as final online preventive control Optimized Measures collection;

Wherein, Δ t _cbe less than Δ t _f;

7) if i _sbe less than n, then according to the sequence of forecast failure in forecast failure sequencing table, will sort from (i _s+ 1) position starts until min{i _s+ max [int (k _pn _p), 1], n] altogether { min{i of position _s+ max [int (k _pn _p), 1], n]-i _sthe set of individual forecast failure is designated as F _c, and by i _sbe set to min{i _s+ max [int (k _pn _p), 1], n], enter step 8), otherwise, by C _pmanagement and running personnel are submitted to, method ends as final online preventive control Optimized Measures collection;

Wherein, n _pfor total check figure of all CPU in the cluster Computing Platform that calculates for electricity net safety stable online preventive control Optimal Decision-making, k _pfor setting be less than 1 parameter;

8) based on operation of power networks section tidal current data and the stable data of up-to-date generation, cluster Computing Platform is adopted, respectively for F _cin each forecast failure, calculate the loss cost L that the protective device action that directly triggers because of forecast failure causes _r, and take into account protective device and peace from the running status of device and model and parameter thereof, the electricity net safety stable time-domain-simulation carried out under forecast failure calculates, and calculates because the loss cost L that causes occurs forecast failure _f, enter step 9);

9) if F _cmiddle L _fbe greater than L _rforecast failure number be 0, then return step 6); Otherwise, by F _cmiddle L _fbe greater than L _rthe set of forecast failure be designated as F _p0, by F _cin except F _p0the set of the forecast failure outside middle forecast failure is designated as F _s0, calculate F by formula (2) _p0in each forecast failure occur after the value of risk summation SL that causes _fp0, and set up set F _p, by F _pinitial value be set to F _p0, by F _pin each forecast failure occur after the value of risk summation SL that causes _fpinitial value be set to SL _fp0, enter step 10):

${\mathrm{SL}}_{fp0}=\underset{k=1}{\overset{m_{p0}}{\Σ}}\left(L_{fp0.k}{p}_{fp0.k}\right)---\left(2\right)$

In formula, m _p0for F _p0the sum of middle forecast failure, L _fp0.kfor step 8) in the F that calculates _p0the loss cost caused after a middle kth forecast failure occurs, p _fp0.kfor F _p0the probability that a middle kth forecast failure occurs;

10) by F _s0with F _punion be designated as F _s, adopt cluster Computing Platform, based on up-to-date generation flow data, stablize data and prevention and control candidate measure collection, take into account F _sin the L of each forecast failure _fwith L _rconstraint condition equal respectively, the Optimal Decision-making carrying out electricity net safety stable Control Measure calculates; If be met F _sin the prevention and control Optimized Measures increment collection Δ C of each forecast failure safety and stability _p, then step 12 is entered), otherwise calculation flag I is set _cbe 1, enter step 11);

Described prevention and control Optimized Measures increment collection refers to that selected prevention and control equipment and control variable thereof, controlling party are to the set with controlled quentity controlled variable increment;

11) if F _pthe total m of middle forecast failure _pbe greater than the forecast failure number of setting and SL _fpwith SL _fp0ratio be greater than setting value λ, then first press the sequence of forecast failure in forecast failure sequencing table, from F _pposterior int (the m of middle rejecting sequence _p/ 2) individual forecast failure, obtains the F after upgrading _pand m _p, then calculate SL by formula (3) _fp, return step 10); Otherwise by C _pmanagement and running personnel are submitted to, method ends as final online preventive control Optimized Measures collection:

${\mathrm{SL}}_{fp}=\underset{j=1}{\overset{m_p}{\Σ}}\left(L_{fp.j}{p}_{fp.j}\right)---\left(3\right)$

In formula, L _fp.jfor step 8) in the F that calculates _pthe loss cost caused after a middle jth forecast failure occurs, p _fp.jfor F _pthe probability that a middle jth forecast failure occurs;

12) based on the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation, in conjunction with running status and the model and parameter thereof of protective device under the current method of operation, F is calculated by formula (4) ₀in each forecast failure occur after the value of risk summation SL that causes of the protective device action that directly triggers because of forecast failure _r; F is calculated by formula (5) _pin each forecast failure occur after the value of risk summation SL that produces except the value of risk that the protective device action directly triggered because of forecast failure causes _frp, enter step 13);

${\mathrm{SL}}_r=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}\left(L_{r.i}{p}_{f.i}\right)---\left(4\right)$

${\mathrm{SL}}_{frp}=\underset{j=1}{\overset{m_p}{\mathrm{\Σ}}}\[\left(L_{fp.j}-L_{rp.j}\right)p_{fp.j}\]---\left(5\right)$

In formula, L _r.ifor F under the operation of power networks state corresponding to the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation ₀in i-th forecast failure occur after the loss cost that causes of the protective device action that directly triggers because of forecast failure, p _f.ifor F ₀in the probability that occurs of i-th forecast failure; L _fp.jfor step 8) in the F that calculates _pthe loss cost caused after a middle jth forecast failure occurs, L _rp.jfor step 8) in the F that calculates _pthe loss cost that the protective device action directly triggered because of forecast failure after a middle jth forecast failure occurs causes, p _fp.jfor F _pthe probability that a middle jth forecast failure occurs;

13) in the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation and the basis of stable data, generate and implement Δ C _pflow data afterwards and stable data, for upgrading the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation and stable data, enter step 14);

14) based on the operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation; in conjunction with running status and the model and parameter thereof of protective device under the current method of operation, calculate step 13 by formula (6)) F under the operation of power networks state corresponding to operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation that obtains ₀in each forecast failure occur after the value of risk summation SL' that causes of the protective device action that directly triggers because of forecast failure _r, enter step 15);

${\mathrm{SL}}_r^{,}=\underset{i=1}{\overset{n}{\Σ}}\left(L_{r.i}^{,}{p}_{f.i}\right)---\left(6\right)$

In formula, L' _r.ifor in step 13) F under the operation of power networks state corresponding to operation of power networks section tidal current data of up-to-date generation that obtains ₀in i-th forecast failure occur after the loss cost that causes of the protective device action that directly triggers because of forecast failure, p _f.ifor F ₀in the probability that occurs of i-th forecast failure;

15) calculating implements C under the current method of operation of electrical network _pwith Δ C _pthe adjustment cost paid and step 14) in the SL' that calculates _rboth sums, only implement C if should and be less than or equal under the current method of operation of electrical network _pthe adjustment cost paid and step 12) SL that calculates _rand SL _frpthree's sum, then enter step 16), otherwise, return step 11);

16) according to Δ C _pin selected each Control Measure respectively to C _pafter being handled as follows, enter step 17):

If Δ C _pin the prevention and control equipment of selected Control Measure and control variable thereof at C _pin exist, then by C relevant for the prevention and control equipment and control variable thereof to this selected Control Measure _pin final controlled quentity controlled variable and Δ C _pin controlled quentity controlled variable increment sum for upgrading C _pin final controlled quentity controlled variable, otherwise, add the prevention and control equipment of this selected Control Measure and control variable thereof, controlling party to C as the prevention and control equipment of newly-increased prevention and control Optimized Measures and control variable thereof, controlling party to final controlled quentity controlled variable to controlled quentity controlled variable increment _pin;

17) if I _cbe 0, enter step 18), otherwise, by C _pmanagement and running personnel are submitted to, method ends as final online preventive control Optimized Measures collection;

18) according to Δ C _pin after each selected Control Measure is handled as follows the prevention and control candidate measure collection of up-to-date generation respectively, return step 6):

The first step, if Δ C _pin the prevention and control equipment of selected Control Measure and control variable thereof select first, then concentrate from the prevention and control candidate measure of up-to-date generation and reject from the prevention and control equipment of this Control Measure and the identical but controlling party of control variable thereof to different candidate's measures;

Second step, concentrates from the prevention and control candidate measure of up-to-date generation and searches and Δ C _pin the prevention and control equipment of selected Control Measure and the identical candidate's measure of control variable thereof, if the controlled amounts maximal value of this candidate's measure and Δ C _pin the controlled quentity controlled variable increment of selected Control Measure equal, then concentrate from the prevention and control candidate measure of up-to-date generation and reject this candidate's measure, otherwise, adopt controlled amounts maximal value and the Δ C of this candidate's measure _pin the difference of both controlled quentity controlled variable increments of selected Control Measure upgrade the controlled amounts maximal value of this candidate's measure.

2. power system safety and stability online preventive control Application of risk decision method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described step 2) in threshold value p _crget 1/10th of the minimum value of probability of happening in all faults that in " guiding rules of power system safety and stability ", second security perimeter is defendd.

3. power system safety and stability online preventive control Application of risk decision method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described step 2) in Δ t _fbe set to 15 minutes.

4. power system safety and stability online preventive control Application of risk decision method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described step 6) in Δ t _cbe set to 5 minutes.

5. power system safety and stability online preventive control Application of risk decision method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described step 7) in k _pbe set to 0.9.

6. power system safety and stability online preventive control Application of risk decision method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described step 11) in forecast failure number be greater than 1 odd number.

7. power system safety and stability online preventive control Application of risk decision method according to claim 6, is characterized in that, described step 11) in forecast failure number be set to 5.

8. power system safety and stability online preventive control Application of risk decision method according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described step 11) in setting value λ be set to 0.2.