CN102222890B - Complex power grid cascading failure analysis method considering atrocious weather factor - Google Patents
Complex power grid cascading failure analysis method considering atrocious weather factor Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a complex power grid cascading failure analysis method considering an atrocious weather factor in the technical field of the safety protection of the power system. The method comprises the following steps: calculating a stable power flow of a power grid area to be analyzed in a preset power grid operation mode to obtain a main power-flow path of the power grid area to be analyzed; calculating a failure probability of the main power-flow path, and taking two paths with the maximum probability value as an initial failure points; judging whether a fault chain link triggers the transient stability problem, adding the initial failure point to the fault chain if the fault chain link triggers the transient stability problem; judging whether the residual grid is overloaded after the failure occurs; choosing the next failure point if the residual grid is overloaded; and taking the failure point at the moment as the last link of the failure chain to be added in the fault chain if the residual grid is not overloaded. The invention can obtain a cascading failure weak link for the whole power grid and provide an effective tool for monitoring and early warning of the power grid cascading failures.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to power system security guard technology field, relate in particular to a kind of complex electric network grid cascading failure analysis method of taking into account bad weather factor.
Background technology
Electric power system is a complicated high-order nonlinear dynamical system; the extensive interconnected of electrical network not only can make the dynamic behaviour of electric power system more complicated; and some areas break down after its scope involving also will strengthen, more easily cause causing due to cascading failure in succession the serious accident of large-area power-cuts.Local one or more the fault of electric power system, except operational outfit fault, beyond human operational error, bad weather is also one of major reason of can not ignore.Wide region is crossed in electric power system, and weather conditions affect the key factor of its safe operation often.The possibility that under severe weather conditions, element breaks down will increase greatly, due to electric power system electric line particularly long distance high-voltage transmission line be in for a long time in complicated weather environment, the impact that is subject to Changes in weather of its fault is very large.Long-term operating experience shows, although the probability that bad weather occurs is not high, but the chance that the each element of electrical network breaks down under severe weather conditions obviously increases, and element is produced to huge destruction, make electrical network that multiple possibility relevant and uncorrelated fault occur and sharply raise, so-called " fault gathering " phenomenon occurs.Therefore, carrying out considering bad weather factor in the analysis of the complex electric network cascading failure mechanism of transmission, it is very important that the prevention to cascading failure and control seem.
Academia is mainly studied cascading failure in power system from two angles both at home and abroad at present.The one, taking power system mesomeric state and transient analysis as core, study cascading failure in power system global behavior feature with the behavior of particular probability descriptive system.For example OPA model, Hidden Failure model, CASCADE model etc.; The 2nd, taking topological structure of electric as core, the mechanism of transmission of cascading failure in the fragile structure of application Complex Networks Theory research electrical network and complex electric network.For example small-world network model and scale-free model etc.
But within above-mentioned research do not include weather conditions in the category that model considers, be difficult to adapt to electric network fault situation complicated and changeable under bad weather.This method proposes to take into account complex electric network cascading failure accident chain propagation model and the simulation algorithm of bad weather factor based on the critical thought of self-organizing.
Under failure mode, particularly same meteorological condition that statistics electrical network bad weather causes, on the impact in the same area, same channel range and the principal character of impact, and sort out combing; Operation characteristic and weak link under research electrical network bad weather after serious cascading failure; On this basis, utilize Complex System Theory and relevant mathematical method, the mechanism that research cascading failure occurs, the development law of analysis cascading failure; Analyzing on the basis of the cascading failure origin cause of formation, researching and proposing the strategy that cascading failure occurs under prevention electrical network bad weather.
Summary of the invention
The object of the invention is to, propose a kind of complex electric network grid cascading failure analysis method of taking into account bad weather factor, research and analyse power grid accident probability of happening and fault cumulative effect thereof under bad weather.
For realizing above-mentioned object, technical scheme provided by the invention is that a kind of complex electric network grid cascading failure analysis method of taking into account bad weather factor comprises:
Step 1: set Grid to be analyzed and power system operating mode;
Step 2: calculate Grid to be analyzed in the stable trend of setting under power system operating mode by Based on Power System Analysis Software Package, obtain trend and direction, and obtain thus the path of controlling the trend of Grid to be analyzed;
Step 3: calculate the probability of malfunction in the path of controlling the trend, get two circuits of probable value maximum as primary fault point;
Step 4: by Based on Power System Analysis Software Package transient stability computational methods, the Power Network Transient Stability that carries out Grid to be analyzed calculates, and obtains Network Voltage Stability and generator's power and angle stability Calculation result;
Step 5: judge whether to have triggered transient stability problem by accident chain link, if it is perform step 9; Otherwise, execution step 6;
Step 6: primary fault point is added to accident chain, from Grid to be analyzed, faulty line is disconnected, will disconnect after remaining electrical network as fault after remaining network;
Step 7: the trend of carrying out remaining network after fault by Based on Power System Analysis Software Package is calculated, determines the direction of controlling the trend of remaining network after fault, and after failure judgement, whether remaining network transships; If so, perform step 8; Otherwise, execution step 9;
Step 8: according to the direction of controlling the trend of remaining network after fault, select next fault point according to the explicit triggering of accident chain link and/or implicit expression triggering mode, and using the next fault point of selecting as primary fault point, remaining network after fault, as Grid to be analyzed, is returned to step 4;
Step 9: last link using fault point now as fault chain adds accident chain, forms final accident chain, and has judged whether that peace is from device action, if had, carries out peace from device action.
The control the trend computing formula of probability of malfunction in path of described calculating is P
o(E
i)=1-e
-pt; Wherein, p is circuit or the failure rate of bus under bad weather,
η
ithe fault ratio under bad weather for circuit or bus; T
ifor boisterous statistical duration, T is the measurement period time,
for the failure rate of circuit or bus.
After described failure judgement, whether remaining network transships specifically according to the calculation of tidal current of remaining network after fault, finds the circuit of thermally-stabilised nargin γ >=1.
The computing formula of described thermally-stabilised nargin is
wherein, γ
m, ifor the thermally-stabilised nargin of circuit i when the cascading failure m stage, be P
i, mfor the meritorious trend of circuit i when the cascading failure m stage; P
i, m-1for the meritorious trend of circuit i when the cascading failure m-1 stage;
while occurring to the m-1 stage for cascading failure, circuit L
jactive power after fault tripping on it is transferred to the active power on circuit i; P
i, maxfor the steady limit of heat of circuit i.
The typical operation modes such as the present invention is large to the summer of regional power grid, the summer is little, the winter is large, the winter is little are carried out cascading failure analysis, can draw the cascading failure weak link of whole electrical network, for power grid cascading fault monitoring and early warning provide effective tool.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the complex electric network grid cascading failure analysis method flow chart of taking into account bad weather factor;
Fig. 2 is north, Henan area power grid geographical wiring diagram.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, preferred embodiment is elaborated.Should be emphasized that, following explanation is only exemplary, instead of in order to limit the scope of the invention and to apply.
Embodiment 1
Fig. 1 is the complex electric network grid cascading failure analysis method flow chart of taking into account bad weather factor.In Fig. 1, the complex electric network grid cascading failure analysis method of taking into account bad weather factor comprises:
Step 1: set Grid to be analyzed and power system operating mode.
Step 2: calculate Grid to be analyzed in the stable trend of setting under power system operating mode by Based on Power System Analysis Software Package, obtain trend and direction, and obtain thus the path of controlling the trend of Grid to be analyzed.
Step 3: calculate the probability of malfunction in the path of controlling the trend, get two circuits of probable value maximum as primary fault point.
Under different weather condition, the ratio that circuit or bus break down is:
η in formula
ithe fault ratio under bad weather for circuit or bus; T
ifor boisterous statistical duration; T is the measurement period time; P is circuit or the failure rate of bus under bad weather;
for the failure rate of circuit or bus.Obtain:
η in formula
i, T
i,
t can be obtained by statistics, can be obtained the failure rate p of element under bad weather by formula.Statistics shows, the probability obedience Poisson distribution that electric power system has an accident, and transmission line or bus i are under inclement weather conditions, and the interior trouble-proof probability of t preset time is:
The probability breaking down is:
P
o(E
i)＝1-e
-pt
Step 4: by Based on Power System Analysis Software Package transient stability computational methods, the Power Network Transient Stability that carries out Grid to be analyzed calculates, and obtains Network Voltage Stability and generator's power and angle stability Calculation result.
Step 5: judge whether to have triggered transient stability problem by accident chain link, if it is perform step 9; Otherwise, execution step 6.
Step 6: primary fault point is added to accident chain, from Grid to be analyzed, faulty line is disconnected, will disconnect after remaining electrical network as fault after remaining network.
Step 7: the trend of carrying out remaining network after fault by Based on Power System Analysis Software Package is calculated, determines the direction of controlling the trend of remaining network after fault, and after failure judgement, whether remaining network transships; If so, perform step 8; Otherwise, execution step 9;
After described failure judgement, whether remaining network transships specifically according to the calculation of tidal current of remaining network after fault, finds the circuit of thermally-stabilised nargin γ >=1.
The computing formula of described thermally-stabilised nargin is
wherein, γ
m, ifor the thermally-stabilised nargin of circuit i when the cascading failure m stage, be P
i, mfor the meritorious trend of circuit i when the cascading failure m stage; P
i, m-1for the meritorious trend of circuit i when the cascading failure m-1 stage;
while occurring to the m-1 stage for cascading failure, circuit L
jactive power after fault tripping on it is transferred to the active power on circuit i; P
i, maxfor the steady limit of heat of circuit i.
Step 8: according to the direction of controlling the trend of remaining network after fault, select next fault point according to the explicit triggering of accident chain link and/or implicit expression triggering mode, and using the next fault point of selecting as primary fault point, remaining network after fault, as Grid to be analyzed, is returned to step 4.
Step 9: last link using fault point now as fault chain adds accident chain, forms final accident chain, and has judged whether that peace is from device action, if had, carries out peace from device action.
Embodiment 2
Cause operational mode under catastrophe failure using Henan Electric Power System Henan backlands district 500kV rack bad weather below and carry out Curve fitting simulation computational analysis as one embodiment of the present of invention, summary of the invention of the present invention is described further.
Henan Electric Power System is divided in Yu Bei, Yu Xi, west, Henan, four subnets in south, Henan, and according to meteorological statistics, backlands district, Henan is bad weather district occurred frequently winter.Propose accident chain model and simulation algorithm based on this method north, Henan area power grid is carried out to fault simulation, cause the chain propagation path of fault after bad weather initiation serious accident be described.
As shown in accompanying drawing 2 north, Henan area power grid geographical wiring diagrams, based on Henan Electric Power System large mode winter in 2010, in the NORTEL net of Henan, burnt new electrical network is mainly by 500kV Huojia County-the Huanshui River peace double loop, 500kV tower paving-Cangjie line totally three back transmission lines to peace Pu crane mains supply, first determine 500kV Huojia County-the Huanshui River peace double loop, 500kV tower paving-Cangjie line is the path of controlling the trend of peace Pu crane electrical network.Then, record statistics in conjunction with this electrical network accident treatment over the years and calculate the control the trend probability of malfunction P in path of this region under bad weather
o(E
i), set Data support is provided for primary fault.Contingency occurrence probability result of calculation under meritorious trend and the bad weather of this three back transmission line is as shown in the table.
| NORTEL host trend path, Henan | Active power (MW) | P 0(E i) |
| Tower paving 500-Cangjie 500 | 898.83 | 0.743 |
| The Huan An 500I-500I of Huojia County | 847.64 | 0.513 |
| The Huan An 500II-500II of Huojia County | 853.59 | 0.513 |
Now suppose that strong wind cold wave bad weather appears in backlands district, Henan, this type of weather may cause that powerline ice-covering waves.In conjunction with circuit probability of malfunction result of calculation under bad weather, setting Henan backlands district 500kV tower paving-Cangjie line is the first primary fault of this cascading failure emulation because icing wind dance causes line tripping, and wire arrangement any rebound lock in 500kV Huojia County-the Huanshui River is the second primary fault.This time cascading failure generation and evolution and the steady nargin exponent gamma of the heat of initiating failure circuit in each stage
m, isimulation result is as shown in the table.
| Faulty line | Initiating failure | γ m，i |
| Tower paving 500-Cangjie 500 | The new fiery 220-Lingshan 220 heavy duties | 0.9438 |
| 500-the Huanshui River, Huojia County peace 500I | Transship in the new fiery 220-Lingshan 220 | 1.1512 |
| The new fiery 220-Lingshan 220 | Transship new fiery 220-Tangyin 220 | 1.0151 |
| The new fiery 220-Lingshan 220 | Transship in tower paving 220-Hua County 220 | 1.0974 |
| Transship new fiery 220-Tangyin 220 | Peace Pu crane area Voltage Instability | - |
| Transship in tower paving 220-Hua County 220 | Peace Pu crane area Voltage Instability | - |
The accident chain that simulation result obtains Henan NORTEL net is: top event (peace Pu crane area Voltage Instability)=(tower paving 500-Cangjie 500) × (500-the Huanshui River, Huojia County peace 500) × (the new fiery 220-Lingshan 220) × (new fiery 220-Tangyin 220+ tower paving 220-Hua County 220).
After tower paving 500-Cangjie 500 single loop lines cause phase fault to trip because of icing wind dance, the 220 lines heavy duties of the new fiery 220-Lingshan but not tripping operation, if trip because wind dance causes phase fault for any one time in the peace double loop of now 500kV Huojia County-the Huanshui River, the new fiery 220-Lingshan 220 line overload trips; And the 220 line tripping operations of the new fiery 220-Lingshan can cause that new fiery 220-Tangyin 220 and tower paving loop line road, 220 liang, 220-Hua County are all because overload trips; If the node voltage fast-descending that this two loop lines tripping operation can cause peace Pu crane area, to 0.75p.u., causes pacifying Pu crane area power grid generation Voltage Instability accident.
The accident chain that the cascading failure simulation algorithm proposing via this method obtains is the path passage of fault propagation under bad weather, common factor in region between each accident chain is the weak link place of electrical network, and the configuration that the method is installed certainly for electrical network peace provides important reference frame.
The above; only for preferably embodiment of the present invention, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited to this, is anyly familiar with in technical scope that those skilled in the art disclose in the present invention; the variation that can expect easily or replacement, within all should being encompassed in protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be as the criterion with the protection range of claim.
Claims (3)
1. take into account a complex electric network grid cascading failure analysis method for bad weather factor, it is characterized in that described method comprises:
Step 1: set Grid to be analyzed and power system operating mode;
Step 2: calculate Grid to be analyzed in the stable trend of setting under power system operating mode by Based on Power System Analysis Software Package, obtain trend and direction, and obtain thus the path of controlling the trend of Grid to be analyzed;
Step 3: calculate the probability of malfunction in the path of controlling the trend, get two circuits of probable value maximum as primary fault point;
The control the trend computing formula of probability of malfunction in path of described calculating is P
o(E
i)=1-e
-pt;
Wherein, p is circuit or the failure rate of bus under bad weather,
η
ithe fault ratio under bad weather for circuit or bus;
T
ifor boisterous statistical duration, T is the measurement period time;
for the failure rate of circuit or bus;
Step 4: by Based on Power System Analysis Software Package transient stability computational methods, the Power Network Transient Stability that carries out Grid to be analyzed calculates, and obtains Network Voltage Stability and generator's power and angle stability Calculation result;
Step 5: judge whether to have triggered transient stability problem by accident chain link, if it is perform step 9; Otherwise, execution step 6;
Step 6: primary fault point is added to accident chain, from Grid to be analyzed, faulty line is disconnected, will disconnect after remaining electrical network as fault after remaining network;
Step 7: the trend of carrying out remaining network after fault by Based on Power System Analysis Software Package is calculated, determines the direction of controlling the trend of remaining network after fault, and after failure judgement, whether remaining network transships; If so, perform step 8; Otherwise, execution step 9;
Step 8: according to the direction of controlling the trend of remaining network after fault, select next fault point according to the explicit triggering of accident chain link and/or implicit expression triggering mode, and using the next fault point of selecting as primary fault point, remaining network after fault, as Grid to be analyzed, is returned to step 4;
Step 9: last link using fault point now as fault chain adds accident chain, forms final accident chain, and has judged whether that peace is from device action, if had, carries out peace from device action.
2. a kind of complex electric network grid cascading failure analysis method of taking into account bad weather factor according to claim 1, it is characterized in that after described failure judgement that whether remaining network transships specifically according to the calculation of tidal current of remaining network after fault, finds the circuit of thermally-stabilised nargin γ >=1.
3. a kind of complex electric network grid cascading failure analysis method of taking into account bad weather factor according to claim 2, is characterized in that the computing formula of described thermally-stabilised nargin is
wherein, γ
m,ifor the thermally-stabilised nargin of circuit i when the cascading failure m stage, P
i,mfor the meritorious trend of circuit i when the cascading failure m stage; P
i, m-1for the meritorious trend of circuit i when the cascading failure m-1 stage;
while occurring to the m-1 stage for cascading failure, circuit L
jactive power after fault tripping on it is transferred to the active power on circuit i; P
i, maxfor the steady limit of heat of circuit i.
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| CN102611085B (en) * | 2012-03-12 | 2014-11-05 | 中国电力科学研究院 | Intertripping simulation analysis method |
| CN103279807B (en) * | 2013-05-06 | 2016-11-16 | 国家电网公司 | A kind of static risk assessment method for power grid in severe weather |
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| CN105225167B (en) * | 2015-04-20 | 2018-09-14 | 国家电网公司 | A kind of cascading failure recognition sequence system and method |
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| CN106998064B (en) * | 2017-04-10 | 2019-05-10 | 清华大学深圳研究生院 | A kind of cascading failure fault chains searching method |
| CN109991472B (en) * | 2017-12-29 | 2022-08-02 | 湖南工业大学 | Power grid frequency disturbance real-time monitoring method, equipment and system |
| CN109167384A (en) * | 2018-08-17 | 2019-01-08 | 国网山西省电力公司大同供电公司 | A kind of Risk Identification of the distribution network voltage fluctuation containing distributed energy |
| CN109873457B (en) * | 2019-04-12 | 2020-07-10 | 合肥工业大学 | Multi-time scale cascading failure prediction method for power system under typhoon weather condition |
| CN111190412B (en) * | 2020-01-06 | 2021-02-26 | 珠海格力电器股份有限公司 | Fault analysis method and device, storage medium and terminal |
| CN111488675B (en) * | 2020-03-18 | 2023-04-25 | 四川大学 | Mining method for potential triggering mode of cascading failure of power system |
| CN113452012A (en) * | 2020-03-27 | 2021-09-28 | 南京南瑞继保电气有限公司 | Power system transient stability calculation method considering meteorological factors |
| CN112907731A (en) * | 2021-02-20 | 2021-06-04 | 华南理工大学 | Oil gas major infrastructure multi-disaster accident coupling three-dimensional simulation system |
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