CN101901430A - Power grid risk management and control method and device - Google Patents
Power grid risk management and control method and device Download PDFInfo
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- CN101901430A CN101901430A CN2010102339036A CN201010233903A CN101901430A CN 101901430 A CN101901430 A CN 101901430A CN 2010102339036 A CN2010102339036 A CN 2010102339036A CN 201010233903 A CN201010233903 A CN 201010233903A CN 101901430 A CN101901430 A CN 101901430A
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Abstract
The invention discloses power grid risk management and control method and device, relating to the technical field of computers and dynamically reflecting the risk change conditions so as to adjust a risk prevention and control measure in time and prevent a risk from being converted into accidents. The power grid risk management and control method comprises the following steps of: acquiring the risk level of a power grid operation risk in real time, and confirming a risk prevention and control measure according to the risk level. The invention is applied to the operation of a power grid.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to field of computer technology, relate in particular to a kind of power grid risk management and control method and device.
Background technology
Under the overall development target call of intelligent grid, the safe operation of electrical network is had higher requirement, implement the problem that becomes urgent solution based on the production safety management theory of power grid risk management and control.
At present, prior art scheme at power grid risk management and control, all be in experiment and exploratory stage, attempt to set up theoretically a cover efficient ways, and taked exhaustive method that the type of risk, rank, prevention and control measure etc. have been carried out some analyses and research, shortage is with regard to the further investigation of electrical network actual state, especially in the modelling description of power grid risk, quantitative evaluation standard, Intelligent Recognition foundation, standardization prevention and control, dynamically all lack science, complete, effective method aspect the adjustment.
Therefore, from the power industry in the whole nation, also there be not complete power grid risk management and control method and the device of a cover.
Summary of the invention
Technical matters to be solved by this invention is to provide a kind of power grid risk management and control method and device, can realize dynamic reflection risk situation of change, thereby in time adjust the risk prevention and control measure, prevents that risk is converted into accident.
For solving the problems of the technologies described above, power grid risk management and control method of the present invention and device adopt following technical scheme:
A kind of power grid risk management and control method comprises:
Obtain the risk class of operation of power networks risk in real time;
Determine the risk prevention and control measure of described electrical network according to described risk class.
The classification of described operation of power networks risk comprises: power grid risk, equipment risk and personnel risk, the corresponding corresponding risk factors of described power grid risk, equipment risk and personnel risk.
The risk class of described real-time acquisition operation of power networks risk comprises:
According to default risk assessment standard obtain respectively corresponding to all risk factors of described power grid risk score value, corresponding to the score value of all risk factors of described equipment risk with corresponding to the score value of all risk factors of described personnel risk;
Score value according to all risk factors of the described power grid risk, equipment risk and the personnel risk that obtain respectively obtains the integrated risk score value;
Determine the risk class of described operation of power networks risk according to described integrated risk score value.
The default risk assessment standard of described basis obtain respectively corresponding to all risk factors of described power grid risk score value, comprise corresponding to the score value of all risk factors of described equipment risk with corresponding to the score value of all risk factors of described personnel risk:
With the score value addition of every risk factors of equipment risk, obtain the score value of all risk factors of described equipment risk;
With the score value addition of every risk factors of power grid risk, multiply by the equipment risk index again, obtain the score value of all risk factors of described power grid risk;
With the score value addition of every risk factors of personnel risk, obtain the score value of all risk factors of described personnel risk.
Obtaining the integrated risk score value according to the score value of all risk factors of the described power grid risk, equipment risk and the personnel risk that obtain respectively is:
Integrated risk=log2.2 (power grid risk * equipment risk index+personnel risk+equipment risk) * 10;
Wherein, equipment risk index=equipment risk/200+1;
The score value of described integrated risk is the natural number between 0 to 100.
Describedly determine that according to described integrated risk score value the risk class of described operation of power networks risk comprises:
The score value of described integrated risk is M.If M＞80, the risk class of then judging described operation of power networks risk is a primary risk;
If 50≤M≤80, the risk class of then judging described operation of power networks risk is the secondary risk;
If M＜50, the risk class of then judging described operation of power networks risk is a tertiary risk.
A kind of power grid risk management and control device comprises:
The risk class acquiring unit is used for obtaining in real time the risk class of operation of power networks risk;
Risk prevention and control unit is used for determining according to described risk class the risk prevention and control measure of described electrical network.
The classification of described operation of power networks risk comprises: power grid risk, equipment risk and personnel risk, the corresponding corresponding risk factors of described power grid risk, equipment risk and personnel risk.
Described risk class acquiring unit comprises:
Risk factors score value module, be used for according to default risk assessment standard obtain respectively corresponding to all risk factors of described power grid risk score value, corresponding to the score value of all risk factors of described equipment risk with corresponding to the score value of all risk factors of described personnel risk;
Integrated risk score value module is used for the score value acquisition integrated risk score value according to all risk factors of the described power grid risk, equipment risk and the personnel risk that obtain respectively;
The risk class determination module is used for determining according to described integrated risk score value the risk class of described operation of power networks risk.
Described risk factors score value module comprises:
The first score value subelement is used for the score value addition with every risk factors of equipment risk, obtains the score value of all risk factors of described equipment risk;
The second score value subelement is used for the score value addition with every risk factors of power grid risk, multiply by the equipment risk index again, obtains the score value of all risk factors of described power grid risk;
The 3rd score value subelement is used for the score value addition with every risk factors of personnel risk, obtains the score value of all risk factors of described personnel risk.
In the technical scheme of present embodiment, at the variation of operation of power networks state and real-time condition, risk is carried out real-time assessment and deciding grade and level, can dynamic reflection risk situation of change, in time adjust the risk prevention and control measure, prevent risk conversion accident.
Description of drawings
In order to be illustrated more clearly in the embodiment of the invention or technical scheme of the prior art, the accompanying drawing of required use is done to introduce simply in will describing embodiment below, apparently, accompanying drawing in describing below only is some embodiments of the present invention, for those of ordinary skills, under the prerequisite of not paying creative work, can also obtain other accompanying drawing according to these accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 is an embodiment of the invention power grid risk management and control synoptic diagram;
Fig. 2 is that embodiment of the invention power grid risk type and risk factors concern synoptic diagram;
Fig. 3 is one of embodiment of the invention power grid risk management and control method synoptic diagram;
Fig. 4 is two of an embodiment of the invention power grid risk management and control method synoptic diagram;
Fig. 5 is that embodiment of the invention power grid risk type, risk factors and relevant criterion measure concern synoptic diagram;
Fig. 6 is one of embodiment of the invention power grid risk management and control device synoptic diagram;
Fig. 7 is two of an embodiment of the invention power grid risk management and control device synoptic diagram;
Fig. 8 is that embodiment of the invention power grid risk management and control device is used synoptic diagram.
Embodiment
Below in conjunction with the accompanying drawing in the embodiment of the invention, the technical scheme in the embodiment of the invention is clearly and completely described, obviously, described embodiment is the present invention's part embodiment, rather than whole embodiment.Based on the embodiment among the present invention, those of ordinary skills belong to the scope of protection of the invention not making the every other embodiment that is obtained under the creative work prerequisite.
Power grid risk is a general designation, is meant owing to power system operating mode changes, there is the not high reason of defective, sloppy management or peopleware in power equipment itself, and the potential risk that the safe and stable operation of electrical network is brought.Risk all is not cause the potential safety hazard of security incident as yet, must take suitable prevention and control measure, prevent the generation of accident, in case because the improper or other reasons of risk prevention and control measure causes the generation of power grid security accident, just need to start fault and dispose flow process, with quick elimination accident impact, power system restoration to the safe operation mode.
The factor that constitutes power grid risk mainly contains three major types: power grid risk, equipment risk, personal risk.Risk corresponding to electrical network is mainly derived from aspects such as the method for operation is unusual, the transport capacity of electrical network, abominable meteorological disaster; Be mainly derived from aging, heating, physical damage and the associated environmental factor of equipment corresponding to the risk of equipment; Corresponding to the risk sources of the person in aspects such as management responsibility, personnel's load-bearing capacity, equipment are short in needed material.
As shown in Figure 1, realize the lifecycle management of power grid risk, catch power grid risk, carry out risk assessment with in-service surveillance, improve the risk prevention and control measure, the measures for the supervision implementation of conditions are served as theme, the power grid risk that causes owing to factors such as electrical network production maintenance task, equipment deficiency and environment is carried out prevention, pre-control initiatively, avoid risk to be converted into power grid accident, real power grid risk management of implementing to putting prevention first.
Form the recommendation on improvement of power grid risk by the dynamic evaluation of prevention and control being handled execution, improve constantly the anti-risk ability of each professional electrical network, gradually reduce the generation of risk accidents, thereby further improve the reliability of electrical network by implementation and supervision.
The embodiment of the invention provides a kind of power grid risk management and control method and device, can realize dynamic reflection risk situation of change, thereby in time adjust the risk prevention and control measure, prevents that risk is converted into accident.
The embodiment of the invention provides a kind of power grid risk management and control method, and as shown in Figure 2, this method comprises:
Risk class is determined by the integrated risk score value of the score value acquisition of all risk factors of current power grid risk, equipment risk, personal risk.
According to risk class adjustment and definite current risk prevention and control measure, to prevent risk conversion accident.
In the technical scheme of present embodiment, at the variation of operation of power networks state and real-time condition, risk is carried out real-time assessment and deciding grade and level, can dynamic reflection risk situation of change, in time adjust the risk prevention and control measure, prevent risk conversion accident.
In order to make those skilled in the art can more be expressly understood the technical scheme that the embodiment of the invention provides, below by specific embodiment, the realization power grid risk management and control method that another embodiment of the present invention is provided is elaborated.
As shown in Figure 3, the power grid risk management and control method that provides of another embodiment of the present invention comprises:
The definition of risk element is divided into three levels, is respectively kind of risk, risk factors and correlating factor.Kind of risk mainly contains: power grid risk, equipment risk, personnel risk, and can expand as required.
Different classes of risk is subdivided into different risk factors again, the risk factors of power grid risk have: mode risk, consumer's risk, load loss, two task risks, meteorological risk, power plant's risk etc., the risk factors of equipment risk have: defective risk, environmental risk, heavily loaded risk etc., the risk factors of personnel risk have: operating risk factor, personnel's qualification factor, personnel's bearing capacity factor, the undisciplined factor of personnel, peopleware factor etc., what of the risk factors item in different classes of all can expand according to managerial demand.
Every kind of risk factors have many corresponding with it risk correlating factors again, all have corresponding data model to be described to every kind of correlating factor, support the detailed description to the risk correlating factor.
Obtain the risk class of operation of power networks risk in real time, at first to obtain respectively according to default risk assessment standard corresponding to all risk factors of power grid risk score value, corresponding to the score value of all risk factors of described equipment risk, and corresponding to the score value of all risk factors of described personnel risk.
The scoring of risk is based upon on the risk assessment standard basis, is the detailed standard of power grid risk quantitative evaluation shown in the table 1.
Table 1
Particularly, with the score value addition of every risk factors of equipment risk, obtain the score value of all risk factors of described equipment risk;
With the score value addition of every risk factors of power grid risk, multiply by the equipment risk index again, obtain the score value of all risk factors of described power grid risk;
With the score value addition of every risk factors of personnel risk, obtain the score value of all risk factors of described personnel risk.
Wherein, equipment risk index=equipment risk/200+1.
Integrated risk=log2.2 (power grid risk * equipment risk index+personnel risk+equipment risk) * 10;
The score value of described integrated risk is the natural number between 0 to 100.
If the score value of described integrated risk is M.
If M＞80, the risk class of then judging described operation of power networks risk is a primary risk;
If 50≤M≤80, the risk class of then judging described operation of power networks risk is the secondary risk;
If M＜50, the risk class of then judging described operation of power networks risk is a tertiary risk.
As shown in Figure 5, at the power grid risk of assessing out, fill in corresponding measures to rectify and reform by each specialty, system provides the auxiliary establishment of intelligence, the regularization tissue of each professional measure, the functions such as deduction check of key measure.
At prevention and control measure, provide for of the tracking of electric power specialty the prevention and control measure implementation status, check and the function of examination assessment, and can finish collaborative between each specialty by electronics technological means such as hold a conference or consultation.
In order to guarantee the long-acting operation of risk prevention and control mechanism, use index data maintenance, the applicating maintenance state of system associated with corresponding management process by setting up, improve the system applies effect, promote improving constantly of level of risk management.
In the technical scheme of present embodiment, at the variation of operation of power networks state and real-time condition, according to default risk assessment standard, risk is carried out real-time assessment and deciding grade and level, can dynamic reflection risk situation of change, in time adjust the risk prevention and control measure, prevent risk conversion accident.
The embodiment of the invention also provides a kind of power grid risk management and control device, and as shown in Figure 6, this device comprises: risk class acquiring unit 1 and risk prevention and control unit 2.
Risk class acquiring unit 1 is used for obtaining in real time the risk class of operation of power networks risk; Risk prevention and control unit 2 is used for determining according to described risk class the risk prevention and control measure of described electrical network.
Further, the classification of described operation of power networks risk comprises: power grid risk, equipment risk and personnel risk, the corresponding corresponding risk factors of described power grid risk, equipment risk and personnel risk.
Further, as shown in Figure 7, described risk class acquiring unit 1 comprises: risk factors score value module 11, integrated risk score value module 12 and risk class determination module 13.
Risk factors score value module 11, be used for according to default risk assessment standard obtain respectively corresponding to all risk factors of described power grid risk score value, corresponding to the score value of all risk factors of described equipment risk with corresponding to the score value of all risk factors of described personnel risk; Integrated risk score value module 12 is used for the score value acquisition integrated risk score value according to all risk factors of the described power grid risk, equipment risk and the personnel risk that obtain respectively; Risk class determination module 13 is used for determining according to described integrated risk score value the risk class of described operation of power networks risk.
Wherein, integrated risk score value module 12, pass through formula: integrated risk=log2.2 (power grid risk * equipment risk index+personnel risk+equipment risk) * 10 obtains the score value of integrated risk; Wherein, equipment risk index=equipment risk/200+1; The score value of described integrated risk is the natural number between 0 to 100.
Further, described risk factors score value module 11 comprises: the first score value subelement 111, the second score value subelement 112 and the 3rd score value subelement 113.
The first score value subelement 111 is used for the score value addition with every risk factors of equipment risk, obtains the score value of all risk factors of described equipment risk; The second score value subelement 112 is used for the score value addition with every risk factors of power grid risk, multiply by the equipment risk index again, obtains the score value of all risk factors of described power grid risk; The 3rd score value subelement 113 is used for the score value addition with every risk factors of personnel risk, obtains the score value of all risk factors of described personnel risk.
More than the specific implementation of each unit can repeat no more referring to Fig. 3 and method flow part shown in Figure 4 herein.
Need to prove, as shown in Figure 8, the power grid risk management and control device that present embodiment provides has been realized the function of a complete risk management and control system, the full mistake that has contained risk management and control, can improve effect to the examination supervision, promote management cycle to improve, also provide safeguard for technological means such as structuring risk model, quantitative evaluation standard, standardization prevention and control measures.
Through the above description of the embodiments, the those skilled in the art can be well understood to the present invention and can realize by the mode that software adds essential common hardware, can certainly pass through hardware, but the former is better embodiment under a lot of situation.Based on such understanding, the part that technical scheme of the present invention contributes to prior art in essence in other words can embody with the form of software product, this computer software product is stored in the storage medium that can read, floppy disk as computing machine, hard disk or CD etc., comprise some instructions with so that computer equipment (can be personal computer, server, the perhaps network equipment etc.) carry out the described method of each embodiment of the present invention.
The above; only be the specific embodiment of the present invention, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, anyly is familiar with those skilled in the art in the technical scope that the present invention discloses; can expect easily changing or replacing, all should be encompassed within protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be as the criterion with the protection domain of described claim.
Claims (10)
1. a power grid risk management and control method is characterized in that, comprising:
Obtain the risk class of operation of power networks risk in real time;
Determine the risk prevention and control measure of described electrical network according to described risk class.
2. method according to claim 1 is characterized in that, the classification of described operation of power networks risk comprises: power grid risk, equipment risk and personnel risk, the corresponding corresponding risk factors of described power grid risk, equipment risk and personnel risk.
3. method according to claim 2 is characterized in that, the risk class of described real-time acquisition operation of power networks risk comprises:
According to default risk assessment standard obtain respectively corresponding to all risk factors of described power grid risk score value, corresponding to the score value of all risk factors of described equipment risk with corresponding to the score value of all risk factors of described personnel risk;
Score value according to all risk factors of the described power grid risk, equipment risk and the personnel risk that obtain respectively obtains the integrated risk score value;
Determine the risk class of described operation of power networks risk according to described integrated risk score value.
4. method according to claim 3, it is characterized in that, the default risk assessment standard of described basis obtain respectively corresponding to all risk factors of described power grid risk score value, comprise corresponding to the score value of all risk factors of described equipment risk with corresponding to the score value of all risk factors of described personnel risk:
With the score value addition of every risk factors of equipment risk, obtain the score value of all risk factors of described equipment risk;
With the score value addition of every risk factors of power grid risk, multiply by the equipment risk index again, obtain the score value of all risk factors of described power grid risk;
With the score value addition of every risk factors of personnel risk, obtain the score value of all risk factors of described personnel risk.
5. method according to claim 4 is characterized in that, obtains the integrated risk score value according to the score value of all risk factors of the described power grid risk, equipment risk and the personnel risk that obtain respectively to be:
Integrated risk=log2.2 (power grid risk * equipment risk index+personnel risk+equipment risk) * 10;
Wherein, equipment risk index=equipment risk/200+1;
The score value of described integrated risk is the natural number between 0 to 100.
6. method according to claim 5 is characterized in that, describedly determines that according to described integrated risk score value the risk class of described operation of power networks risk comprises:
The score value of described integrated risk is M.If M＞80, the risk class of then judging described operation of power networks risk is a primary risk;
If 50≤M≤80, the risk class of then judging described operation of power networks risk is the secondary risk;
If M＜50, the risk class of then judging described operation of power networks risk is a tertiary risk.
7. a power grid risk management and control device is characterized in that, comprising:
The risk class acquiring unit is used for obtaining in real time the risk class of operation of power networks risk;
Risk prevention and control unit is used for determining according to described risk class the risk prevention and control measure of described electrical network.
8. device according to claim 7 is characterized in that, the classification of described operation of power networks risk comprises: power grid risk, equipment risk and personnel risk, the corresponding corresponding risk factors of described power grid risk, equipment risk and personnel risk.
9. device according to claim 8 is characterized in that, described risk class acquiring unit comprises:
Risk factors score value module, be used for according to default risk assessment standard obtain respectively corresponding to all risk factors of described power grid risk score value, corresponding to the score value of all risk factors of described equipment risk with corresponding to the score value of all risk factors of described personnel risk;
Integrated risk score value module is used for the score value acquisition integrated risk score value according to all risk factors of the described power grid risk, equipment risk and the personnel risk that obtain respectively;
The risk class determination module is used for determining according to described integrated risk score value the risk class of described operation of power networks risk.
10. device according to claim 9 is characterized in that, described risk factors score value module comprises:
The first score value subelement is used for the score value addition with every risk factors of equipment risk, obtains the score value of all risk factors of described equipment risk;
The second score value subelement is used for the score value addition with every risk factors of power grid risk, multiply by the equipment risk index again, obtains the score value of all risk factors of described power grid risk;
The 3rd score value subelement is used for the score value addition with every risk factors of personnel risk, obtains the score value of all risk factors of described personnel risk.
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Cited By (9)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102074956A (en) * | 2011-02-11 | 2011-05-25 | 华北电网有限公司 | Power grid risk management method and system |
| CN102521497A (en) * | 2011-12-05 | 2012-06-27 | 广东省电力调度中心 | Method and system for handling power grid operation risk |
| CN104658187A (en) * | 2015-02-09 | 2015-05-27 | 云南电网有限责任公司西双版纳供电局 | Operational risk management and control reminding method and device for power transmission line of power grid |
| CN105046434A (en) * | 2015-07-22 | 2015-11-11 | 国家电网公司 | Pressure test and risk management and control method used for power grid investment |
| CN109377168A (en) * | 2018-09-29 | 2019-02-22 | 广东电网有限责任公司 | Distribution network scheduling operation risk analysis method based on operation mode approval and traffic |
| CN112308461A (en) * | 2020-11-23 | 2021-02-02 | 国网北京市电力公司 | Safety management risk assessment method and device, processor and risk assessment system |
| CN112308460A (en) * | 2020-11-23 | 2021-02-02 | 国网北京市电力公司 | Safety production risk assessment method and device, processor and risk assessment system |
| CN112668878A (en) * | 2020-12-26 | 2021-04-16 | 广东电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Risk linkage management and control method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium |
| CN113704018A (en) * | 2021-08-30 | 2021-11-26 | 平安普惠企业管理有限公司 | Application operation and maintenance data processing method and device, computer equipment and storage medium |
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2010
- 2010-07-19 CN CN2010102339036A patent/CN101901430A/en active Pending
Cited By (10)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN102074956A (en) * | 2011-02-11 | 2011-05-25 | 华北电网有限公司 | Power grid risk management method and system |
| CN102521497A (en) * | 2011-12-05 | 2012-06-27 | 广东省电力调度中心 | Method and system for handling power grid operation risk |
| CN104658187A (en) * | 2015-02-09 | 2015-05-27 | 云南电网有限责任公司西双版纳供电局 | Operational risk management and control reminding method and device for power transmission line of power grid |
| CN104658187B (en) * | 2015-02-09 | 2017-02-22 | 云南电网有限责任公司西双版纳供电局 | Operational risk management and control reminding method and device for power transmission line of power grid |
| CN105046434A (en) * | 2015-07-22 | 2015-11-11 | 国家电网公司 | Pressure test and risk management and control method used for power grid investment |
| CN109377168A (en) * | 2018-09-29 | 2019-02-22 | 广东电网有限责任公司 | Distribution network scheduling operation risk analysis method based on operation mode approval and traffic |
| CN112308461A (en) * | 2020-11-23 | 2021-02-02 | 国网北京市电力公司 | Safety management risk assessment method and device, processor and risk assessment system |
| CN112308460A (en) * | 2020-11-23 | 2021-02-02 | 国网北京市电力公司 | Safety production risk assessment method and device, processor and risk assessment system |
| CN112668878A (en) * | 2020-12-26 | 2021-04-16 | 广东电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 | Risk linkage management and control method and device, electronic equipment and storage medium |
| CN113704018A (en) * | 2021-08-30 | 2021-11-26 | 平安普惠企业管理有限公司 | Application operation and maintenance data processing method and device, computer equipment and storage medium |
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Application publication date: 20101201 |