WO2023273207A1

WO2023273207A1 - Project economic analysis system and method based on net present value method

Info

Publication number: WO2023273207A1
Application number: PCT/CN2021/139004
Authority: WO
Inventors: 丁佳敏; 陆胜勇; 杜长明; 李建华; 朱慧萍
Original assignee: 浙江大学台州研究院
Priority date: 2021-06-27
Filing date: 2021-12-17
Publication date: 2023-01-05
Also published as: CN113449252A

Abstract

The present invention relates to a project economic analysis system and method based on a net present value method. In the present invention, the profit and loss of a project are calculated by means of an algorithm based on a net present value, and the time value of capital is comprehensively taken into consideration, such that in the field of long-period and complex-environment solid waste disposal, the disposal price of a project can be accurately calculated and the optimal project can be selected as a decision-making project, thereby realizing overall plan analysis, reducing risks, and increasing project profits. A project disposal price for when the net present value is 0 is calculated and is taken as the optimal disposal price of the project, so as to balance the profit and loss of the project.

Description

A project economic analysis system and method based on net present value method

technical field

The invention relates to the plasma field, in particular to a project economic analysis system and method based on the net present value method.

Background technique

At present, in traditional project schemes, economic evaluation is usually required to help select projects or different economic scenarios of projects. Conventional evaluation standards include internal rate of return (IRR) and net present value (NPV). The internal rate of return method is generally only applicable to the feasibility evaluation of a single project, while the net present value method is applicable to the two more complex realistic situations of multi-probability scenarios where project variables occur and multi-project portfolio decision-making. When the IRR is the largest, or the NPV is greater than 0, it can be considered that a certain project scenario is economically feasible. For complex projects, the net present value method is usually adopted. The net present value method takes into account the time value of capital. Generally, the future cash flow during the project operation period is discounted to the present value at a certain discount rate and compared with the present value. Compared with the investment cost, the size of the difference can be used to evaluate the economic feasibility of the investment plan.

On the other hand, with the increasing maritime trade, maritime traffic and maritime tourism, the impact of ships on the environment, society and economy is becoming more and more significant. Among them, the impact of ships on the environment includes the treatment and disposal of solid waste generated by ships. Solid waste needs to be harmlessly treated, including direct discharge after crushing, reduced volume storage and transfer to shore for treatment, incineration and plasma treatment. Due to the particularity of solid waste, it is often necessary to invest a large amount of treatment fees to maintain the progress of the project. As the project progresses, profits will also be generated. Therefore, the input of treatment fees is an extremely important parameter in the project. There are very few studies on the economic evaluation of plasma treatment projects in the field of solid waste, and the existing investment decision-making scheme is relatively simple, which cannot intuitively reflect the level of treatment fees; at the same time, the treatment of solid waste has a long investment recovery cycle , the initial investment and operating costs of plasma projects are also extremely high, so an economic analysis method for plasma treatment of solid waste is urgently needed.

Contents of the invention

The purpose of the present invention is to solve the deficiencies of the prior art, and provide a project economic analysis system and method based on the net present value method, which has a simple structure and is easy to use.

A project economic analysis system based on the net present value method, including an operation module, a historical data capture module, and an economic analysis module; wherein the operation module is connected to the historical data capture module and the economic analysis module by communication; the economic analysis The module is also communicated with the previous year data capture module;

The operation module is used to set the input, modify or delete the cash flow data of the past years, and to set and select the projects that need to be analyzed economically, as well as to set the input equity capital, external financing capital, and amortization period; the operation module also includes storage The device, the storage device is used to store the data set and input; the operation module also includes a display device, which facilitates human-computer interaction through the display device;

The historical data capture module is used to obtain the cash flow data of the specified years of the selected project from the operation module, and transmit the captured cash flow data to the economic analysis module; the cash flow data includes cash inflow and cash outflow;

The economic analysis module, according to the set economic analysis method, selects the historical cash flow data of the project, and combines the discounted cash flow method and the net present value algorithm to obtain the minimum treatment subsidy price of the project;

The economic analysis module also includes an investment evaluation module and a price comparison module; the investment evaluation module, according to the set investment cost calculation formula, calculates the investment cost of each year within the amortization period; the price comparison module is used to compare different projects The minimum processing subsidy price of the project is compared and analyzed to obtain the item corresponding to the minimum value of the minimum processing subsidy price.

Further, the economical analysis module also includes a list module, which is used to form a table with the obtained minimum processing subsidy price and corresponding items, and sort them according to the setting rules. The setting rules include numerical forward order and numerical reverse order, and the numerical values include A numeric value for the minimum processing subsidy price.

A project economic analysis method based on the net present value method, comprising the following steps:

Step 1: The investment evaluation module in the economic analysis module obtains the data information of the equity capital, external financing capital, and amortization period of the project to be evaluated from the operation module, and obtains the amortized value of the project to be evaluated according to the set investment cost calculation formula. The annual investment cost during the repayment period;

Step 2: The economic analysis module obtains the cash flow data of the project over the years from the operation module through the historical data capture module, including the cash inflow and cash outflow of the project over the years; and according to the cash flow formula based on the free cash flow discount method , to obtain the cash flow over the years;

Step 3: The economic analysis module calculates the expected rate of return of the asset according to the set capital asset pricing model, and replaces the discount rate in the free cash flow discount method with the discount rate of the asset's expected return to obtain the net present value formula;

Step 4: The economic analysis module substitutes the investment cost calculation formula and the cash flow formula into the net present value formula, and converts the net present value formula to obtain the project processing price calculation formula; the net present value combined with the net present value formula is 0, Obtain the lowest processing subsidy price of the item to be evaluated;

Step 5: The price comparison module in the economic analysis module compares the minimum treatment subsidy price with the minimum treatment subsidy price of other projects of the same type, and combines the sensitivity economic evaluation method of the analysis project to select the corresponding minimum treatment price with the smallest value The project is used as an investment decision-making project.

Further, the formula for calculating the investment cost in step 1 is as follows:

Among them, I _inv (k) represents the investment cost of the k-th year in the amortization period; I ₀ represents the initial investment cost; e _r represents the equity capital ratio; n represents the amortization period, and the unit is years; k represents the amortization period The k-th year of ; i _EF represents the loan interest rate.

Further, the free cash flow in step 2 includes inflow items and outflow items, wherein inflow items include power generation income, income from recycling metals and slag, solid waste treatment subsidy prices; outflow items include operating costs and taxes.

Further, the calculation of the cash flow FCFE is expressed as:

FCFE _σ ＝p _energy (ρ)·E+(p _σ +p _metal+slag )·q _w -c _O&M -f _tax

Among them, FCFE _σ represents the cash flow in the σ year; p _energy (σ) represents the on-grid electricity price in the σ year; E represents the annual on-grid electricity in the σ year, which is equivalent to the annual power generation of the project to be evaluated; p _σ Indicates the treatment subsidy price of unit solid waste in σ year; p _metal+slag indicates the selling price of metal and slag produced by unit solid waste in σ year; q _w indicates the annual solid waste treatment unit volume in σ year; c _O&M means operation and maintenance cost; f _tax means tax.

Further, in the step 3, the expected rate of return of assets is calculated according to the capital asset pricing model, which is expressed as:

E(R)＝R _f +β(R _m -R _f )

Among them, E(R) represents the expected rate of return of assets, that is, the expected rate of return; R _f represents the risk-free rate of return; R _m represents the expected rate of return of the market portfolio; β represents the industry risk coefficient.

Further, the formula for calculating β is as follows:

Among them, R _m represents the expected return of the market portfolio; R _i represents the expected return of investment i; COV(R _m , R _i ) represents the covariance of R _m and R _i ; σ _m ² represents the variance of the market portfolio return;

The net present value represents the difference between the present value of the future cash flow and the present value of the investment cost, and the formula for calculating the net present value is expressed as:

Among them, FCFE _σ represents the cash flow in year σ; I _inv (t) represents the investment cost of year t in the amortization period; n represents the amortization period; σ represents the year σ; v represents the operating cycle of the project; The set base year is usually the year when the project starts; NPV represents the net present value; μ represents the construction period of the project; E(R) represents the expected return on assets.

Further, the formula for calculating the project processing price in step 4 is expressed as:

Among them, p _σ represents the treatment subsidy price of unit solid waste in year σ; I _inv (t) represents the investment cost in year t; n represents the amortization period; σ represents year σ; v represents the operation cycle of the project; The set base year is usually the year when the project starts; μ represents the construction period of the project; q _w represents the annual volume of the same waste treatment unit in the year σ; E(R) represents the expected return on assets;

The minimum processing price is the value obtained from the project processing price calculation formula when the net present value is 0.

The beneficial effects of the present invention are:

By setting up the economic analysis system and the built-in algorithm, the analysis of the input cash flow and other information over the years can be realized, and the minimum treatment subsidy price of each item can be displayed on the display device of the operation module, which is convenient for the operator to compare and choose reasonably Solid waste implementation projects;

By calculating the profit and loss of the project based on the net present value algorithm, and considering the time value of capital, it is possible to accurately calculate the treatment price of the project in the field of solid waste treatment in a long-term and complex environment, and select the best project as a decision-making project. Realize overall analysis, reduce risks, and increase project profitability;

By calculating the project treatment price when the net present value is 0 as the minimum treatment subsidy price of the project, it can balance the profit and loss of the project and ensure the long-term sustainable development of the project.

Description of drawings

FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of module connection in Embodiment 1 of the present invention;

Fig. 2 is a flow chart diagram of the method of Embodiment 1 of the present invention;

Fig. 3 is a timeline of construction, financing repayment and operation of the plasma power generation project in Embodiment 1 of the present invention.

detailed description

Embodiments of the present invention are described below through specific examples, and those skilled in the art can easily understand other advantages and effects of the present invention from the content disclosed in this specification. The present invention can also be implemented or applied through other different specific implementation modes, and various modifications or changes can be made to the details in this specification based on different viewpoints and applications without departing from the spirit of the present invention. It should be noted that, in the case of no conflict, the following embodiments and features in the embodiments can be combined with each other.

It should be noted that the diagrams provided in the following embodiments are only schematically illustrating the basic ideas of the present invention, and only the components related to the present invention are shown in the diagrams rather than the number, shape and shape of the components in actual implementation. Dimensional drawing, the type, quantity and proportion of each component can be changed arbitrarily during actual implementation, and the component layout type may also be more complicated.

Embodiment one:

As shown in Figure 1, an economic analysis system includes an operation module, a data capture module over the years, and an economic analysis module; wherein the operation module is connected with the data capture module over the years and the economic analysis module; the economic analysis module It is also communicated with the calendar year data capture module.

The operation module is used to set, input, modify or delete cash flow data over the years, set and select items that need to be analyzed economically, and set operations or settings such as input equity capital, external financing capital, and amortization period. input. The operation module also includes a storage device, which can store the set input data. The operation module also includes a display device, which facilitates human-computer interaction.

The historical data capture module is used to obtain the cash flow data of the specified years of the selected project from the operation module, and transmit the captured cash flow data to the economic analysis module; the cash flow data includes cash inflow and cash outflow, Cash inflows in this example include revenue from electricity generation, revenue from recycling metals and slag, and subsidized prices for solid waste disposal; cash outflows include operating costs and taxes.

The economic analysis module, according to the set economic analysis method, selects the historical cash flow data of the project, and combines the discounted cash flow method and the net present value algorithm to obtain the minimum treatment subsidy price of the project.

The economic analysis module also includes an investment evaluation module and a price comparison module. Among them, the investment evaluation module calculates the investment cost of each year within the amortization period according to the set investment cost calculation formula. The price comparison module is used to compare and analyze the minimum treatment subsidy prices of different items, and obtain the item corresponding to the minimum treatment subsidy price with the smallest value.

The economic analysis module also includes a list module, which is used to form a table with the obtained minimum treatment subsidy price and corresponding items, and sort them according to the setting rules. The setting rules include numerical positive order, numerical reverse order, etc., and the numerical value includes the minimum treatment subsidy price value.

As shown in Figures 2 and 3, the economic analysis method of the economic analysis module specifically includes the following steps:

Step 3: The economic analysis module calculates the expected return rate of assets according to the set capital asset pricing model, and replaces the discount rate in the free cash flow discount method with the discount rate of the expected return on assets to obtain the net present value formula;

Step 4: The economic analysis module substitutes the investment cost calculation formula and the cash flow formula into the net present value formula, and converts the net present value formula to obtain the project processing price calculation formula; combined with the NPV=0 of the net present value formula, the pending The lowest processing subsidy price for the evaluation item;

Step 5: The price comparison module in the economic analysis module compares the lowest treatment subsidy price with the lowest treatment subsidy price of other projects of the same type, and selects the investment decision-making project of the project in combination with economic evaluation methods such as analyzing the sensitivity of the project; In this example, the item corresponding to the lowest processing price with the smallest value is selected as the investment decision item.

The calculation formula of the investment cost in the step 1 is as follows:

Among them, I _inv (k) represents the investment cost of the k-th year in the amortization period; I ₀ represents the initial investment cost, including equity capital and external financing capital; e _r represents the ratio of equity capital; n represents the amortization period, The unit is year, which is 15 years in this example; k means the kth year in the amortization period; i _EF means the loan interest rate of external financing capital.

The cash inflow in step 2 is income, and the cash outflow is expenditure. The free cash flow in this example includes, but is not limited to, inflow items: revenue from power generation, revenue from recycling metals and slag, solid waste treatment subsidy prices, and outflow items: operating costs and taxes, where operating costs include fixed costs and variable costs. Fixed costs refer to maintenance costs, purchase costs and other foreseeable expenses that require periodic expenditures or one-time expenditures; variable costs refer to unforeseen expenses, including equipment damage and maintenance costs, etc.; solid waste treatment subsidy prices represent the external environment for the unit Subsidies for solid waste treatment, the external environment includes local policies, national policies, etc. The calculation of the cash flow FCFE is expressed as:

FCFE _σ ＝p _energy (σ)·E+(p _σ +P _metal+slag )·q _w -c _O&M -f _tax

Among them, FCFE _σ represents the cash flow in σ year; p _energy (σ) represents the on-grid electricity price in σ year, for example, p _energy (2021) represents the on-grid electricity price in 2021; E represents the annual on-grid electricity in σ year, namely The annual power generation of the project to be evaluated; p _σ represents the treatment subsidy price of unit solid waste in σ year; p _metal+slag represents the selling price of metal and slag produced by unit solid waste in σ year; q _w represents the σ is the annual solid waste treatment unit volume in the year; c _O&M represents operation and maintenance costs; f _tax represents taxation.

In said step 3, the expected rate of return on assets is calculated according to the capital asset pricing model, expressed as:

E(R)＝R _f +β(R _m -R _f )

Among them, E(R) represents the expected rate of return of assets, that is, the expected rate of return; R _f represents the risk-free rate of return; R _m represents the expected rate of return of the market portfolio; β represents the industry risk coefficient. The calculation formula of β is as follows:

Among them, R _m represents the expected return of the market portfolio; R _i represents the expected return of investment i; COV(R _m , R _i ) represents the covariance of Rm and Ri; σ _m ² represents the variance of the market portfolio return.

The present value of future cash flows is expressed as:

Among them, σ indicates the σ-th year, such as 2021, etc.; v indicates the operation cycle of the project, which is 29 years in this example; α indicates the set base year, usually the year when the project starts; FCFE indicates the cash in the σ year Flow; E(R) represents the expected return on assets.

Among them, FCFE _σ represents the cash flow in year σ; I _inv (t) represents the investment cost of year t in the amortization period; n represents the amortization period; σ represents the year σ; v represents the operating cycle of the project; The set base year is usually the year when the project starts; NPV means the net present value; μ means the construction period of the project, which is 1 year in this example; E(R) means the expected return on assets.

The calculation formula of the project treatment price in the step 4 is obtained by transforming the calculation formula of the net present value NPV, and the calculation formula of the project treatment subsidy price p _σ is expressed as:

Among them, p _σ represents the treatment subsidy price of unit solid waste in year σ; I _inv (t) represents the investment cost in year t; n represents the amortization period; σ represents year σ; v represents the operation cycle of the project; The set base year is usually the year when the project starts; μ indicates the construction period of the project, which is 1 year in this example; q _w indicates the annual solid waste treatment unit volume in the year σ; E(R) indicates the asset expectation rate of return. When the NPV is 0, the lowest treatment subsidy price of the project can be obtained, and the profit and loss of the project can be balanced at the lowest treatment subsidy price; because in the calculation process, the treatment subsidy price is used as a variable, while other cash flow data and Investment cost data, etc. are all known quantities, so when the NPV is 0, the obtained treatment subsidy price is the lowest treatment subsidy price for the sustainable development of the project. There is also a profit in dealing with subsidized prices.

The calculation method of the minimum treatment subsidy price of other items of the same type in the step 5 is also obtained through steps 1-4. It should be noted that after the economic analysis module completes the calculation of the minimum treatment subsidy price of all items, the list module will also obtain all the items and the minimum treatment subsidy price, and fill the minimum treatment subsidy price and the corresponding item into the table , in this example, they are sorted according to the numerical value of the lowest processing subsidy price; the list module will also transfer the completed form to the storage device of the operation module, and display it through the display device of the operation module. Among them, the sensitivity analysis of the project adopts the existing analysis method.

In this example, because in the field of waste disposal, the treatment subsidy price of the project is affected by the policy, fluctuates greatly, and occupies a large proportion in the cash flow; on the other hand, the project treatment subsidy price is part of the extra income. When the NPV is 0, that is, when the balance of payments is reached, the lowest project treatment subsidy price is sought, which means that the project has low dependence on the treatment subsidy price, so this project is selected as an investment decision-making project.

By calculating the profit and loss of the project based on the net present value algorithm, and considering the time value of capital, it is possible to accurately calculate the treatment price of the project in the field of solid waste treatment in a long-term and complex environment, and select the best project as a decision-making project. Realize overall analysis, reduce risks, and increase project profitability.

The above description is only a specific example of the present invention, and does not constitute any limitation to the present invention. Obviously, for those skilled in the art, after understanding the content and principles of the present invention, it is possible to make various modifications and changes in form and details without departing from the principles and structures of the present invention, but these are based on the present invention. The modification and change of the inventive concept are still within the protection scope of the claims of the present invention.

Claims

A project economic analysis system based on the net present value method, characterized in that it includes an operation module, a historical data capture module, and an economic analysis module; wherein the operation module is connected to the historical data capture module and the economic analysis module by communication ; The economical analysis module is also connected with the data capture module over the years in communication;

The operation module is used to set, input, modify or delete cash flow data over the years, set and select projects that need to be analyzed economically, and set input equity capital, external financing capital, and amortization period;

The operation module also includes a storage device, which is used to store the input data; the operation module also includes a display device, which facilitates human-computer interaction;

The historical data capture module is used to obtain the cash flow data of the specified years of the selected project from the operation module, and transmit the captured cash flow data to the economic analysis module; the cash flow data includes cash inflow and cash outflow;

The economic analysis module, according to the set economic analysis method, selects the historical cash flow data of the project, and combines the discounted cash flow method and the net present value algorithm to obtain the minimum treatment subsidy price of the project;

The economic analysis module also includes an investment evaluation module and a price comparison module; the investment evaluation module, according to the set investment cost calculation formula, calculates the investment cost of each year within the amortization period; the price comparison module is used to compare different projects The minimum processing subsidy price of the project is compared and analyzed to obtain the item corresponding to the minimum value of the minimum processing subsidy price.
A project economic analysis system based on the net present value method according to claim 1, wherein the economic analysis module also includes a list module, which is used to combine the obtained minimum processing subsidy price and corresponding project composition Table, and sorted according to the setting rules, the setting rules include numerical forward order and numerical reverse order, and the numerical values include the numerical value of the lowest processing subsidy price.
A project economic analysis method based on the net present value method, characterized in that it comprises the following steps:

Step 1: The investment evaluation module in the economic analysis module obtains the data information of the equity capital, external financing capital, and amortization period of the project to be evaluated from the operation module, and obtains the amortized value of the project to be evaluated according to the set investment cost calculation formula. The annual investment cost during the repayment period;

Step 2: The economic analysis module obtains the cash flow data of the project over the years from the operation module through the historical data capture module, including the cash inflow and cash outflow of the project over the years; and according to the cash flow formula based on the free cash flow discount method , to obtain the cash flow over the years;

Step 3: The economic analysis module calculates the expected rate of return of the asset according to the set capital asset pricing model, and replaces the discount rate in the free cash flow discount method with the discount rate of the asset's expected return to obtain the net present value formula;

Step 4: The economic analysis module substitutes the investment cost calculation formula and the cash flow formula into the net present value formula, and converts the net present value formula to obtain the project processing price calculation formula; the net present value combined with the net present value formula is 0, Obtain the lowest processing subsidy price of the item to be evaluated;

Step 5: The price comparison module in the economic analysis module compares the minimum treatment subsidy price with the minimum treatment subsidy price of other projects of the same type, and combines the sensitivity economic evaluation method of the analysis project to select the corresponding minimum treatment price with the smallest value The project is used as an investment decision-making project.
A kind of project economic analysis method based on net present value method according to claim 3, it is characterized in that, the calculation formula of the investment cost in the described step 1 is as follows:

Among them, I inv (k) represents the investment cost of the k-th year in the amortization period; I 0 represents the initial investment cost, including equity capital and external financing capital; e r represents the ratio of equity capital; n represents the amortization period, The unit is year; k means the kth year in the amortization period; i EF means the loan interest rate of external financing capital.
A project economic analysis method based on the net present value method according to claim 4, wherein the free cash flow in the step 2 includes inflow items and outflow items, wherein the inflow items include power generation revenue, recycled metals and slag revenues, solid waste treatment subsidy prices; outflows include operating costs and taxes.
A kind of project economic analysis method based on net present value method according to claim 5, is characterized in that, the calculation expression of described cash flow FCFE is:

FCFE σ ＝p energy (σ)·E+(p σ +p metal+slag )·q w -c O&M -f tax

Among them, FCFE σ represents the cash flow in the σ year; p energy (σ) represents the on-grid electricity price in the σ year; E represents the annual on-grid electricity in the σ year, which is equivalent to the annual power generation of the project to be evaluated; p σ Indicates the treatment subsidy price of unit solid waste in σ year; p metal+slag indicates the selling price of metal and slag produced by unit solid waste in σ year; q w indicates the annual solid waste treatment unit volume in σ year; c O&M means operation and maintenance cost; f tax means tax.
A kind of project economic analysis method based on net present value method according to claim 6, it is characterized in that, in the described step 3, calculate the expected rate of return of assets according to the capital asset pricing model, expressed as:

E(R)＝R f +β(R m -R f )

Among them, E(R) represents the expected rate of return of assets, that is, the expected rate of return; R f represents the risk-free rate of return; R m represents the expected rate of return of the market portfolio; β represents the industry risk coefficient.
A kind of project economic analysis method based on net present value method according to claim 7, is characterized in that, the calculation formula of described β is as follows:

Among them, R m represents the expected return of the market portfolio; R i represents the expected return of investment i; COV(R m , R i ) represents the covariance of Rm and Ri; σ m 2 represents the variance of the market portfolio return;

The net present value represents the difference between the present value of the future cash flow and the present value of the investment cost, and the formula for calculating the net present value is expressed as:

Among them, FCFE σ represents the cash flow in year σ; I inv (t) represents the investment cost of year t in the amortization period; n represents the amortization period; σ represents the year σ; v represents the operating cycle of the project; The set base year is usually the year when the project starts; NPV represents the net present value; μ represents the construction period of the project; E(R) represents the expected return on assets.
A method for analyzing project economics based on the net present value method according to claim 8, wherein the formula for calculating the project processing price in said step 4 is expressed as:

Among them, p σ represents the treatment subsidy price of unit solid waste in year σ; I inv (t) represents the investment cost in year t; n represents the amortization period; σ represents year σ; v represents the operation cycle of the project; The set base year is usually the year when the project starts; μ represents the construction period of the project; q w represents the annual solid waste treatment unit volume in the year σ; E(R) represents the expected return on assets;

The minimum processing price is the value obtained from the project processing price calculation formula when the net present value is 0.