CN109034525A - Method and device for determining investment decision result of exploration and development project - Google Patents
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Abstract
The embodiment of the application discloses a method and a device for determining an investment decision result of an exploration and development project. The method provides an initial index in a value assessment model of a target developer; wherein the initial index is used for representing the operation condition of the target developer; the method comprises the following steps: determining a key index in the value evaluation model according to the initial index; establishing an incidence relation between the return on investment of the target developer and the key index; determining an investment decision result corresponding to the target developer based on the incidence relation; wherein the investment decision result is used for representing the influence result of a target index in the key indexes on the return on investment; the target metrics include price, cost, investment and yield. The technical scheme provided by the embodiment of the application can effectively evaluate the economy of oil and gas exploration and development enterprises, and further obtain an effective investment decision result.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of oil and gas exploration and development, in particular to a method and a device for determining an investment decision result of an exploration and development project.
Background
Investment decisions for oil and gas exploration and development projects involve the whole process from the beginning of exploration to the end of production, and have a plurality of uncertain factors. Therefore, it is necessary to effectively evaluate the economy of oil and gas exploration and development enterprises to further obtain effective investment decision results.
At present, under the regulation and control of the macroscopic economic capital market, the corresponding market regulation and control system has great breakthrough, and the enterprise economic evaluation becomes an important evaluation mode for relatively stable economic environment. As a relatively effective management and investment analysis mode, the enterprise economic evaluation fully considers various elements influencing the profitability of the enterprise according to the overall capital condition and the overall profitability occupied by the enterprise, combines the macroscopic economic environment and the industry background of the enterprise, and comprehensively evaluates the overall operational development of the enterprise according to the internal and external investment environments.
The existing enterprise economic evaluation method mainly adopts a cash flow cash-out model for evaluation and obtains a corresponding investment decision result, the adopted basic theory is that the enterprise value is a function of the cash flow obtained by the enterprise in the future operation period, and the basic variables are the cash flow and the cash-out rate.
However, the cash flow posting model still has some disadvantages: the cash flow model for the cash register is used as a dynamic enterprise value metering model facing the future, and relates to a plurality of uncertain variables, including the free cash flow in the future, the final value of an enterprise, the size of the cash register rate, the length of the cash register period and the like. The ultimate determination of these variables requires subjective estimation and prediction, and in the face of an uncertainty-laden market, it is very difficult to predict the cash flow of a rapidly developing business in a competitive business. This leads to the limitation of the cash flow model.
Disclosure of Invention
The embodiment of the application aims to provide a method and a device for determining an investment decision result of an exploration and development project so as to effectively evaluate the economy of an oil and gas exploration and development enterprise and further obtain an effective investment decision result.
To solve the above technical problems, embodiments of the present application provide a method and an apparatus for determining an investment decision result of an exploration and development project, which are implemented as follows:
a method for determining investment decision results for an exploration and development project provides initial indicators in a value assessment model for a target developer; wherein the initial index is used for representing the operation condition of the target developer; the method comprises the following steps:
determining a key index in the value evaluation model according to the initial index;
establishing an incidence relation between the return on investment of the target developer and the key index;
determining an investment decision result corresponding to the target developer based on the incidence relation; wherein the investment decision result is used for representing the influence result of a target index in the key indexes on the return on investment; the target metrics include price, cost, investment and yield.
In a preferred embodiment, the value evaluation model comprises a yield model or an empirical model; wherein,
the initial indicators in the yield model include: price, yield, commodity rate, commodity quantity, employee wages and benefits, depreciation rate, management costs, sales costs, financial costs, operating costs, financial accounting equivalents, exploration and development investments, asset proportion parameters, fixed assets and conversion coefficients;
the initial indicators in the empirical model include: price, yield, commodity rate, exploration and development investment, available reserve, fixed assets, depreciation rate, oil and gas integrated operation cost, natural oil and gas reduction rate after planning period, exploration success rate, sales tax and proportion of additional sales income, proportion of sales and management expenses to operation cost, disposal cost rate and discount rate.
In a preferred embodiment, the key indicators in the yield model include: price, commodity rate, yield, investment, sales revenue, first cost, and first tax; wherein the first cost expense comprises employee wages and benefits, depreciation and depreciation expenses, amortization expenses, mineral resource compensation expenses, special income money, security fund, safety production expenses, sales expenses, financial expenses, purchase service expenses and operation costs; the first tax comprising: crude oil value-added tax, natural gas value-added tax, business tax, consumption tax, city construction maintenance tax and resource tax;
key indicators in the empirical model include: price, yield, commodity rate, investment, sales revenue, second cost, and second tax; wherein the second cost costs include sales management costs, revenue generating costs, exploration costs, depreciation costs, and exploration costs; the second tax includes a sales tax and an add-on.
In a preferred embodiment, determining the key indicators in the value assessment model includes:
calculating the safe production cost according to the yield in the initial index in the yield model, the crude oil safe production rate and the natural gas safe production rate in the management cost, and calculating the mineral resource compensation rate according to the commodity quantity, the price and the mineral resource compensation rate in the management cost in the initial index in the yield model;
calculating the sales tax and the addition according to the commodity quantity and the price in the initial index in the empirical model and the proportion of the sales tax and the addition to the sales income; and calculating the sales management cost according to the commodity quantity, the comprehensive oil and gas operation cost and the proportion of the sales and management cost to the operation cost in the initial indexes in the empirical model.
In a preferred embodiment, the establishing of the association between the return on investment of the target developer and the key indicator includes:
and establishing the corresponding incidence relation of the yield model by adopting the following formula:
In1＝Y1×Cr1×P1
wherein, ROI1Representing the corresponding return on investment, In, of the yield model1、E1、C1、Ic1、Y1、Cr1And P1Respectively representing sales income, a first tax, a first cost, investment, yield, commodity rate and price in key indexes in the yield model;
and establishing the corresponding incidence relation of the empirical model by adopting the following formula:
In2＝Y2×Cr2×P2
wherein, ROI2Representing the corresponding return on investment, In, of the yield model2、E2、C2、Ic2、Y2、Cr2And P2Sales revenue, first tax, first cost, investment, yield, commodity rate, and price are respectively represented in key indicators in the yield model.
In a preferred embodiment, determining the investment decision result corresponding to the target developer includes:
calculating an initial value of the return on investment according to the incidence relation and the initial value of the target index;
adjusting an initial value of a specified index in the target indexes to a corresponding target value according to a specified change rate, and calculating a target value of the return on investment rate based on the incidence relation, the target value of the specified index and initial values of other indexes in the specified index; wherein the other indexes represent indexes other than the specified index among the specified indexes;
dividing the result of subtracting the initial value of the return on investment from the target value of the return on investment by the specified change rate to obtain the sensitivity of the return on investment to the specified index, and taking the sensitivity of the return on investment to the specified index as the investment decision result corresponding to the target developer.
In a preferred embodiment, determining the investment decision result corresponding to the target developer further includes:
under the condition that the price in the target index is a designated price, respectively determining target values of yield, investment and cost in the target index based on the incidence relation so as to enable the value of the return on investment rate to reach a designated return on investment rate value;
and taking the target values of the yield, the investment and the cost in the target indexes corresponding to the designated price and the designated return on investment value as the investment decision result corresponding to the target developer.
In a preferred embodiment, determining the investment decision result corresponding to the target developer further includes:
respectively determining target values of all the target indexes based on the incidence relation so as to enable the value of the return on investment rate to reach a specified return on investment rate value;
respectively determining the change rate value of each index according to the initial value and the target value of each index in the target indexes;
drawing curve data formed by the change rate values of all the indexes when the value of the return on investment is a specified return on investment value; the curve data is used for representing curves on the radar graph with each index as a coordinate;
and taking the curve data as an investment decision result corresponding to the target developer.
An apparatus for determining investment decision results for an exploration development project, said apparatus providing initial indicators in a value assessment model of a target developer; wherein the initial index is used for representing the operation condition of the target developer; the device comprises: the system comprises a key index determining module, an incidence relation determining module and an investment decision result determining module; wherein,
the key index determining module is used for determining a key index in the value evaluation model according to the initial index;
the incidence relation determining module is used for establishing the incidence relation between the return on investment of the target developer and the key index;
the investment decision result determining module is used for determining an investment decision result corresponding to the target developer based on the incidence relation; wherein the investment decision result is used for representing the influence result of a target index in the key indexes on the return on investment; the target metrics include price, cost, investment and yield.
An apparatus for determining investment decision results for an exploration development project, the apparatus comprising a memory having stored therein initial metrics in a value assessment model of a target developer, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory; wherein the initial indicator is used for characterizing the business situation of the target developer, and the computer program is executed by the processor to perform the following steps:
determining a key index in the value evaluation model according to the initial index;
establishing an incidence relation between the return on investment of the target developer and the key index;
determining an investment decision result corresponding to the target developer based on the incidence relation; wherein the investment decision result is used for representing the influence result of a target index in the key indexes on the return on investment; the target metrics include price, cost, investment and yield.
According to the technical scheme provided by the embodiment of the application, the method and the device for determining the investment decision result of the exploration and development project, which are provided by the embodiment of the application, can determine the key indexes in the value evaluation model according to the initial indexes, establish the incidence relation between the return on investment of the target developer and the key indexes, and finally determine the investment decision result corresponding to the target developer based on the incidence relation; wherein the investment decision result is used for representing the influence result of a target index in the key indexes on the return on investment; the target metrics include price, cost, investment and yield. Therefore, the method can directly determine the influence results of price, cost, investment and yield on the return on investment respectively, does not need to carry out subjective estimation and prediction, can effectively evaluate the economy of oil and gas exploration and development enterprises, and further obtains an effective investment decision result.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present application or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings needed to be used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below, it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments described in the present application, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without any creative effort.
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of an embodiment of a method of determining investment decision results for an exploration development project of the present application;
FIG. 2 is a graph illustrating the variation of the return on investment according to the variation of the price, investment and cost respectively in the embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 3 is a graph illustrating the variation of yield with price for different specified return on investment values in an embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 4 is a radar plot of yield, cost, and price at different specified return on investment values for an embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram illustrating the components of an embodiment of the apparatus for determining investment decision results for an exploration development project;
FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram of the structure of another embodiment of the apparatus for determining investment decision results for an exploration development project.
Detailed Description
The embodiment of the application provides a method and a device for determining an investment decision result of an exploration and development project.
In order to make those skilled in the art better understand the technical solutions in the present application, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present application will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present application, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present application, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present application.
The embodiment of the application provides a method for determining an investment decision result of an exploration and development project. The method for determining the investment decision result of the exploration and development project provides an initial index in a value evaluation model of a target developer; wherein the initial index is used for representing the operation condition of the target developer.
In the present embodiment, the target developer may specifically refer to a stock company for oil and gas field development, an oil and gas field exploitation unit, or the like.
In this embodiment, the initial index in the value evaluation model may be obtained by means of data acquisition of the oil and gas field.
In this embodiment, the value assessment model may include a yield model or an empirical model.
In this embodiment, the initial indicators in the yield model may include: price, yield, commodity rate, commodity quantity, employee wages and benefits, depreciation rate, management costs, sales costs, financial costs, operating costs, financial accounting equivalents, exploration and development investments, asset proportion parameters, fixed assets and conversion factors. Specifically, table 1 is an initial index in the yield model, and as shown in table 1, the prices mainly include a crude oil price, a natural gas price, and may further include a condensate price, a coal bed gas price, a shale gas price, and the like. Wherein, the crude oil price can comprise heavy oil price, medium oil price, light oil price, super heavy oil price and special oil price. Accordingly, the production, the commodity rate and the commodity quantity can be refined according to specific oil and gas products. In table 1, indexes corresponding to numbers 1, 2, 3, …, 15, and 16 are initial indexes in the yield model, and numbers 1.1, 1.2, …, 1.5, and 1.6 respectively represent indexes further refined from the index corresponding to number 1. Similarly, 1.1.1, 1.1.2, …, 1.1.5, 1.1.6 respectively represent further detailed indicators for the indicator corresponding to the number 1.1. The refinement manners of the indexes corresponding to other sequence numbers are similar, and are not described in detail here.
TABLE 1 initial indices in the yield model
In this embodiment, the initial indicators in the empirical model may include: price, yield, commodity rate, exploration and development investment, available reserve, fixed assets, depreciation rate, oil and gas integrated operation cost, natural oil and gas reduction rate after planning period, exploration success rate, sales tax and proportion of additional sales income, proportion of sales and management expenses to operation cost, disposal cost rate and discount rate. Specifically, table 2 is an initial index in the empirical model, and as shown in table 2, the prices may mainly include the price of crude oil and the price of natural gas. Accordingly, the production, the commodity rate and the commodity quantity can be refined according to specific oil and gas products. In table 2, indexes corresponding to numbers 1, 2, 3, …, 26, and 27 are initial indexes in the empirical model, and numbers 21.1 and 21.2 respectively represent indexes further refined for the index corresponding to number 21. The refinement manners of the indexes corresponding to other sequence numbers are similar, and are not described in detail here.
TABLE 2 initial indices in the yield model
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of an embodiment of a method of determining investment decision results for an exploration development project according to the present application. As shown in FIG. 1, the method for determining the investment decision result of an exploration and development project comprises the following steps.
Step S101: and determining a key index in the value evaluation model according to the initial index.
In this embodiment, the key indicators in the yield model may include: price, commodity rate, yield, investment, sales revenue, first cost fee, and first tax.
TABLE 3 partial Key indicators in the yield model
| Serial number | Index (I) | Unit of |
| 1 | Sales revenue | Hundred million yuan |
| 1.1 | Crude oil | Hundred million yuan |
| 1.2 | Condensate oil | Hundred million yuan |
| 1.3 | Liquefied gas | Hundred million yuan |
| 1.4 | Natural gas | Hundred million yuan |
| 1.5 | Coal bed gas | Hundred million yuan |
| 1.6 | Shale gas | Hundred million yuan |
| 1.7 | Other revenue of business | Hundred million yuan |
| 2 | First tax | Hundred million yuan |
| 2.1 | Crude oil value-added tax | Hundred million yuan |
| 2.2 | Value-added tax of natural gas | Hundred million yuan |
| 2.3 | Business tax | Hundred million yuan |
| 2.4 | Consumption tax | Hundred million yuan |
| 2.5 | Urban construction maintenance tax | Hundred million yuan |
| 2.6 | Additional tax for education fee | Hundred million yuan |
| 2.7 | Resource tax | Hundred million yuan |
| 2.8 | Other taxes | Hundred million yuan |
| 3 | First cost of | Hundred million yuan |
| 3.1 | Employee payroll and welfare | Hundred million yuan |
| 3.2 | Depreciation and depreciation | Hundred million yuan |
| 3.3 | Managing fees | Hundred million yuan |
| 3.3.1 | Amortization cost | Hundred million yuan |
| 3.3.2 | Mineral resource compensation fee | Hundred million yuan |
| 3.3.3 | Special profit of petroleum | Hundred million yuan |
| 3.3.4 | Security fund | Hundred million yuan |
| 3.3.5 | Safe production cost | Hundred million yuan |
| 3.3.6 | Other administrative fees | Hundred million yuan |
| 3.4 | Sales fee | Hundred million yuan |
| 3.5 | Financial cost | Hundred million yuan |
| 3.6 | Purchase service expenditure | Hundred million yuan |
| 3.7 | Operating costs | Hundred million yuan |
Specifically, table 3 is a part of key indexes in the yield model, and as shown in table 3, the first cost may include employee wages and benefits, depreciation and depreciation costs, amortization costs, mineral resource compensation costs, special income money, security fund, safe production costs, sales costs, financial costs, purchase service expenses, and operation costs. The first tax may include: crude oil value-added tax, natural gas value-added tax, business tax, consumption tax, city construction maintenance tax and resource tax. In table 3, indexes corresponding to numbers 1, 2, and 3 are key indexes in the yield model, and numbers 3.1, 3.2, …, 3.6, and 3.7 respectively represent indexes further refined for the index corresponding to number 1. Similarly, 3.3.1, 3.3.2, …, 3.3.5, 3.3.6 respectively represent further detailed indicators for the indicator corresponding to the number 3.3. The refinement manners of the indexes corresponding to other sequence numbers are similar, and are not described in detail here.
In this embodiment, determining the key index in the value evaluation model according to the initial index may specifically include calculating the safe production rate according to the production in the initial index in the production model and the crude oil safe production rate and the natural gas safe production rate included in the management cost. For example, the safe production cost may be obtained by adding the product of the crude oil production and the crude oil safe production rate to the product of the natural gas production and the natural gas safe production rate, respectively. The mineral resource compensation rate may be calculated according to the commodity amount, the price, and the mineral resource compensation rate included in the management fee in the initial index in the yield model. For example, the mineral resource compensation fee can be obtained by adding the product of the commodity amount of crude oil and the price of crude oil to the product of the natural gas yield and the natural gas safe production rate and then multiplying the addition result by the mineral resource compensation rate.
Furthermore, the product of the sales revenue and the value added tax rate of the crude oil in table 1 china may also be used as the value added tax of the crude oil. The product of the crude oil value-added tax and the city construction maintenance tax rate in table 1 may be taken as the city construction maintenance tax. The product of the value-added tax of the crude oil and the rate of the additional tax of the education expenses in table 1 may be used as the additional tax of the education.
In this embodiment, the key indicators in the empirical model may include: price, yield, commodity rate, investment, sales revenue, second cost, and second tax.
TABLE 4 partial Key indicators in the empirical model
| Serial number | Index (I) | Unit of |
| 1 | Sales revenue | Ten thousand yuan |
| 1.1 | Crude oil | Ten thousand yuan |
| 1.2 | Natural gas | Ten thousand yuan |
| 2 | Second tax | Ten thousand yuan |
| 2.1 | Sales tax and add-ons | Ten thousand yuan |
| 3 | Second cost expense | Ten thousand yuan |
| 3.1 | Operating costs | Ten thousand yuan |
| 3.2 | Sales management costs | Ten thousand yuan |
| 3.3 | Benefit of particular interest | Ten thousand yuan |
| 3.4 | Cost of exploration | Ten thousand yuan |
| 3.5 | Cost reduction | Ten thousand yuan |
Specifically, table 4 is part of the key indicators in the empirical model, and as shown in table 4, the second cost costs may include sales management costs, special profit margin, exploration costs, depreciation costs, and exploration costs. The second tax includes a sales tax and an add-on. In table 4, indexes corresponding to numbers 1, 2, and 3 are key indexes in the empirical model, and numbers 1.1 and 1.2 respectively represent indexes further refined for the index corresponding to number 1. The refinement manners of the indexes corresponding to other sequence numbers are similar, and are not described in detail here.
In this embodiment, determining the key indicators in the value evaluation model according to the initial indicators may specifically include calculating the sales tax and the addition according to the commodity amount and the price in the initial indicators in the empirical model, and the ratio of the sales tax and the addition to the sales income. The sales management costs may be calculated from the commodity amount, the oil and gas integrated operation costs, and the ratio of sales and management costs to the operation costs in the initial index in the empirical model.
Furthermore, the product of the price of crude oil and the commodity amount of crude oil may be taken as the sales income of crude oil, and the product of the price of natural gas and the commodity amount of natural gas may be taken as the sales income, and the sum of the sales income of crude oil and the sales income of natural gas may be taken as the sales income. The product of the fixed net worth and the depreciation rate in table 2 may also be taken as the depreciation cost.
Step S102: and establishing an incidence relation between the return on investment of the target developer and the key index.
In this embodiment, the establishing the association between the return on investment of the target developer and the key indicator may specifically include establishing an association corresponding to the yield model by using the following formula:
In1＝Y1×Cr1×P1
wherein, ROI1Representing the corresponding return on investment, In, of the yield model1、E1、C1、Ic1、Y1、Cr1And P1Sales revenue, first tax, first cost, investment, yield, commodity rate, and price are respectively represented in key indicators in the yield model. Wherein the obtained tax can be added to the crude oil value-added tax, natural gas value-added tax, consumption tax, city construction maintenance tax, and education fee in Table 3The sum of taxes, resource taxes, and other taxes as the first tax. The sum of the employee wages and benefits, depreciation and depreciation costs, amortization costs, mineral resource compensation costs, special income money, security fund, safe production costs, sales costs, financial costs, purchase service expenses, and operation costs in table 3 may be taken as the first cost.
The following formula can be used to establish the corresponding association relationship of the empirical model:
In2＝Y2×Cr2×P2
wherein, ROI2Representing the corresponding return on investment, In, of the yield model2、E2、C2、Ic2、Y2、Cr2And P2Sales revenue, first tax, first cost, investment, yield, commodity rate, and price are respectively represented in key indicators in the yield model. Wherein the sum of the sales management fee, the special profit margin, the exploration fee, the depreciation fee and the exploration fee in table 4 may be used as the first cost fee. The sum of the income tax and the sales tax and the additional tax may be the first tax.
Step S103: determining an investment decision result corresponding to the target developer based on the incidence relation; wherein the investment decision result is used for representing the influence result of a target index in the key indexes on the return on investment; the target metrics include price, cost, investment and yield.
In this embodiment, the investment decision result corresponding to the target developer may be determined based on the association relationship. Wherein the target metrics include price, cost, investment, and yield. Specifically, the investment decision result corresponding to the target developer may be determined according to the following steps:
(1) calculating an initial value of the return on investment according to the incidence relation and the initial value of the target index;
(2) adjusting an initial value of a specified index in the target indexes to a corresponding target value according to a specified change rate, and calculating a target value of the return on investment rate based on the incidence relation, the target value of the specified index and initial values of other indexes in the specified index; wherein the specified index may represent any one of the target indexes; the other indexes represent indexes other than the specified index in the specified indexes;
(3) dividing the result of subtracting the initial value of the return on investment from the target value of the return on investment by the specified change rate to obtain the sensitivity of the return on investment to the specified index, and taking the sensitivity of the return on investment to the specified index as the investment decision result corresponding to the target developer. In this way, the sensitivity of the return on investment to the price, the investment, the cost can be obtained separately. And the sensitivities of the return on investment rate to the price, the investment and the cost can be used as the investment decision result corresponding to the target developer. For example, fig. 2 is a schematic diagram illustrating the change of the return on investment according to the change rate of the price, the investment and the cost respectively in the embodiment of the present application. The abscissa and ordinate in fig. 2 are the index change rate and the return on investment, respectively. As shown in fig. 2, in the case of the same rate of change, the return on investment rate has a large variation range with price change and a high sensitivity to price change, and has a small variation range with investment change and a low sensitivity to investment change. Therefore, the sensitivity of the return on investment rate to different index changes can be used as the investment decision result corresponding to the target developer.
In this embodiment, determining the investment decision result corresponding to the target developer based on the association relationship may further include:
(1) under the condition that the price in the target index is a designated price, respectively determining target values of yield, investment and cost in the target index based on the incidence relation so as to enable the value of the return on investment rate to reach a designated return on investment rate value; wherein the specified return on investment value may be a desired return on investment value;
(2) and taking the target values of yield, investment and cost in the target indexes corresponding to the designated price and the designated return on investment value as the investment decision result corresponding to the target developer. Wherein the specified prices can be current market crude oil prices and natural gas prices. For example, FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram illustrating the variation of yield with price for different specified return on investment values in the embodiment of the present application. The abscissa and ordinate in fig. 3 are oil price and production, respectively, in units of dollars/barrel and ten thousand tons, respectively. The 4 curves a, b, c and d in fig. 3 are curves corresponding to 5%, 8%, 12% and 20% return on investment, respectively. As shown in FIG. 3, the yield decreases with increasing price at different specified return on investment values.
In this embodiment, determining the investment decision result corresponding to the target developer based on the association relationship may further include:
(1) respectively determining target values of all the target indexes based on the incidence relation so as to enable the value of the return on investment rate to reach a specified return on investment rate value; wherein the specified return on investment value may be a desired return on investment value;
(2) respectively determining the change rate value of each index according to the initial value and the target value of each index in the target indexes;
(3) when the value of the return on investment is a designated return on investment value, drawing curve data formed by the change rate values of all the indexes; the curve data is used for representing curves on the radar graph with each index as a coordinate;
(4) and taking the curve data as an investment decision result corresponding to the target developer. For example, FIG. 4 is a radar plot of yield, cost, and price for various specified return on investment values in an embodiment of the present application. The coordinates in fig. 3 are index change rates. The 4 curves a, b, c and d in fig. 4 are curves corresponding to 5%, 8%, 12% and 20% return on investment, respectively. As shown in fig. 4, when the return on investment is different from the specified return on investment value, a plurality of curves corresponding to the target values of yield, price and cost can be drawn and used as the result of investment decision, so as to quickly determine the variation and trend of each index.
In one embodiment of the present application, the method for determining an investment decision result of an exploration development project may further include: and respectively generating single-phase index basic results, comprehensive results and historical results of the target developer based on the initial index and the key index, and taking the single-phase index basic results, the comprehensive results and the historical results as reference data of investment decision.
Specifically, for example, based on the initial index and the key index in the yield model, the single-phase index basic result, the comprehensive result and the comparison of the historical results corresponding to the yield model can be generated respectively. Wherein,
(1) the single-phase index basic results comprise the following result tables:
① staff salary table summarizes indexes of various oil fields, stock companies, staff numbers of various years, per-capita salaries, salary sum and ① like;
② crude oil commodity scale, wherein the crude oil commodity scale summarizes indexes such as crude oil commodity quantity, condensate commodity quantity, liquefied gas commodity quantity and the like of each oil field, stock company and each year;
③ crude oil income table summarizes ③ crude oil sales volume, unit price and total sales volume indexes of each oil field, stock company and each year;
condensate income table, liquefied gas income table and natural gas income table, wherein the tables summarize sales volume, unit price and total sales volume indexes of each oil field, stock company and each year;
a tax total table, wherein the tax total table summarizes indexes of crude oil value-added tax, natural gas value-added tax, special income money, resource tax, city maintenance construction fee, education fee addition, other tax total and the like of each oil field, stock company and each year, and calculates the total of the tax;
sixthly, the special income fund summarizes indexes such as the bucket ton ratio, commodity quantity, unit price, income, special income fund, bucket equivalent, oil price (dollar) and the like of each oil field, stock companies and each year, and the special income fund is calculated according to oil price classification and considering the commodity quantity.
(2) The comprehensive results comprise the following result table:
the method comprises the following steps that firstly, a basic operation fee comprehensive table summarizes basic operation fees of oil fields and stock companies and index values of all components of the basic operation fees, the table transversely represents the oil fields and the total amount, and the table longitudinally represents index names;
a profit and loss comprehensive table, wherein the profit and loss comprehensive table summarizes index values of cash inflow, cash outflow, profit and the like of each oil field and stock company, the table is the oil field and the total in the horizontal direction, and the table is the index name in the vertical direction;
thirdly, a free cash flow comprehensive table, wherein the free cash flow comprehensive table summarizes the profit of each oil field and stock company, the free cash flow and other index values, the table transversely refers to the oil field and the total, and the table longitudinally refers to the index name;
fourthly, an Economic Value Added (EVA) model comprehensive table, wherein the EVA model comprehensive table summarizes relevant indexes required by EVA calculation of each oil field and stock company, the table transversely represents the oil field and the total and longitudinally represents the index name;
and fifthly, a comprehensive table of the return on investment rate, wherein the comprehensive table of the return on investment rate summarizes relevant indexes required by calculating the return on investment rate of each oil field and stock company, the table horizontally represents the oil field and the total, and the table vertically represents index names.
(3) The comparison of the results of the past year comprises the following results table:
the method comprises the following steps that firstly, a free cash flow historical result comparison table is used, wherein the free cash flow historical result comparison table calculates relevant index values of the free cash flow in a gathering mode according to a given oil field unit or a stock company, the table is collected according to the year, the horizontal direction of the table is the year, and the vertical direction of the table is the index name;
② EVA model year-round result comparison table calculates ② relevant index values of ② economic added value (EVA) according to ② given oil field unit or ② stock company, and ② table is summarized according to ② year, ② transverse direction of ② table is ② year, and ② longitudinal direction of ② table is ② index name;
and thirdly, a comparison table of return on investment rate results over years, wherein the comparison table of return on investment rate results over years calculates the relevant index values of the return on investment rate in a gathering manner according to given oilfield units or stock companies, and the table is summarized according to the year, the horizontal direction of the table is the year, and the vertical direction of the table is the index name.
Moreover, single-phase index basic results, comprehensive results and historical result comparison corresponding to the empirical model can be respectively generated based on the initial index and the key index in the empirical model. Wherein,
(1) the single-phase index basic results comprise the following result tables:
the method comprises the following steps of (1) measuring an oil and gas commodity scale, wherein the oil and gas commodity scale summarizes indexes such as crude oil yield, natural gas yield, oil and gas yield (equivalent), oil and gas commodity quantity (equivalent) and the like of each oil field, stock company and each year;
secondly, an oil gas commodity scale, wherein the oil gas commodity scale summarizes indexes such as crude oil yield, price, income and the like of each oil field, stock company and each year;
the natural gas income table summarizes indexes of natural gas yield, price, income and the like of each oil field, stock company and each year;
and fourthly, an exploration and development investment table, wherein the exploration and development investment table summarizes indexes of exploration investment, development investment, exploration success rate, investment sum and the like of each oil field, stock company and each year.
(2) The comprehensive results comprise the following result table:
the method comprises the following steps that firstly, a profit and loss comprehensive table is used for summarizing cash inflow, outflow and profit index values according to given oil field units or stock companies and summarizing according to the oil fields and the stock companies, the table is an oil field unit in the horizontal direction, and index names are in the vertical direction;
② free cash flow comprehensive table, wherein the free cash flow comprehensive table summarizes relevant indexes of the free cash flow according to given oil field units or share companies and summarizes relevant indexes according to the oil fields and the share companies, the table is an oil field unit in the transverse direction and is an index name in the longitudinal direction;
and thirdly, a comprehensive table of the return on investment rate, wherein the comprehensive table of the return on investment rate calculates the relevant indexes of the return on investment rate in a gathering way according to given oil field units or stock companies, and gathers according to the oil fields and the stock companies, and the table is an oil field unit in the transverse direction and is an index name in the longitudinal direction.
(3) The comparison of the results of the past year comprises the following results table:
the method comprises the following steps that firstly, a profit and loss past year result comparison table summarizes cash inflow, outflow and profit index values according to given oil field units or stock companies, the cash inflow, outflow and profit index values are summarized according to the year, and the table is horizontal in the year and vertical in the index name;
a free cash flow historical result comparison table, wherein the free cash flow historical result comparison table calculates the relevant index values of the free cash flow in a gathering way according to a given oil field unit or a stock company, the table is summarized according to the year, the horizontal direction of the table is the year, and the vertical direction of the table is the index name;
and thirdly, a comparison table of return on investment rate results over years, wherein the comparison table of return on investment rate results over years calculates the relevant index values of the return on investment rate in a gathering manner according to given oilfield units or stock companies, and the table is summarized according to the year, the horizontal direction of the table is the year, and the vertical direction of the table is the index name.
According to the embodiment of the method for determining the investment decision result of the exploration and development project, the key indexes in the value evaluation model can be determined according to the initial indexes, the incidence relation between the return on investment of the target developer and the key indexes can be established, and finally, the investment decision result corresponding to the target developer can be determined based on the incidence relation; wherein the investment decision result is used for representing the influence result of a target index in the key indexes on the return on investment; the target metrics include price, cost, investment and yield. Therefore, the method can directly determine the influence results of price, cost, investment and yield on the return on investment respectively, does not need to carry out subjective estimation and prediction, can effectively evaluate the economy of oil and gas exploration and development enterprises, and further obtains an effective investment decision result.
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram illustrating the components of an embodiment of the apparatus for determining investment decision results for an exploration development project. The device for determining the investment decision result of the exploration and development project is provided with an initial index in a value evaluation model of a target developer; wherein the initial index is used for representing the operation condition of the target developer. As shown in fig. 5, the means for determining an investment decision result of an exploration development project may include: a key index determining module 100, an incidence relation determining module 200 and an investment decision result determining module.
The key indicator determining module 100 may be configured to determine a key indicator in the value evaluation model according to the initial indicator.
The association relation determining module 200 may be configured to establish an association relation between the return on investment of the target developer and the key indicator.
The investment decision result determining module 300 may be configured to determine an investment decision result corresponding to the target developer based on the association relationship; wherein the investment decision result is used for representing the influence result of a target index in the key indexes on the return on investment; the target metrics include price, cost, investment and yield.
FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram of the structure of another embodiment of the apparatus for determining investment decision results for an exploration development project. As shown in fig. 6, the means for determining investment decision results for an exploration development project may include a memory having stored therein initial metrics in a value assessment model of a target developer, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory; wherein the initial indicator is used for characterizing the business situation of the target developer, and the computer program is executed by the processor to perform the following steps:
step S101: determining a key index in the value evaluation model according to the initial index;
step S102: establishing an incidence relation between the return on investment of the target developer and the key index;
step S103: determining an investment decision result corresponding to the target developer based on the incidence relation; wherein the investment decision result is used for representing the influence result of a target index in the key indexes on the return on investment; the target metrics include price, cost, investment and yield.
The device embodiment for determining the investment decision result of the exploration and development project corresponds to the method embodiment for determining the investment decision result of the exploration and development project, so that the technical scheme of the method embodiment for determining the investment decision result of the exploration and development project can be realized, and the technical effect of the method embodiment can be obtained.
In the 90 s of the 20 th century, improvements in a technology could clearly distinguish between improvements in hardware (e.g., improvements in circuit structures such as diodes, transistors, switches, etc.) and improvements in software (improvements in process flow). However, as technology advances, many of today's process flow improvements have been seen as direct improvements in hardware circuit architecture. Designers almost always obtain the corresponding hardware circuit structure by programming an improved method flow into the hardware circuit. Thus, it cannot be said that an improvement in the process flow cannot be realized by hardware physical modules. For example, a Programmable Logic Device (PLD), such as a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA), is an integrated circuit whose Logic functions are determined by programming the Device by a user. A digital system is "integrated" on a PLD by the designer's own programming without requiring the chip manufacturer to design and fabricate application-specific integrated circuit chips. Furthermore, nowadays, instead of manually making an integrated Circuit chip, such Programming is often implemented by "logic compiler" software, which is similar to a software compiler used in program development and writing, but the original code before compiling is also written by a specific Programming Language, which is called Hardware Description Language (HDL), and HDL is not only one but many, such as ABEL (Advanced Boolean Expression Language), AHDL (alternate Hardware Description Language), traffic, CUPL (core universal Programming Language), HDCal, jhddl (Java Hardware Description Language), Lava, Lola, HDL, PALASM, rhyd (Hardware Description Language), and vhjhddl (Hardware Description Language), which is currently used in most popular version-version Language (Hardware Description Language). It will also be apparent to those skilled in the art that hardware circuitry that implements the logical method flows can be readily obtained by merely slightly programming the method flows into an integrated circuit using the hardware description languages described above.
Those skilled in the art will also appreciate that, in addition to implementing the controller as pure computer readable program code, the same functionality can be implemented by logically programming method steps such that the controller is in the form of logic gates, switches, application specific integrated circuits, programmable logic controllers, embedded microcontrollers and the like. Such a controller may thus be considered a hardware component, and the means included therein for performing the various functions may also be considered as a structure within the hardware component. Or even means for performing the functions may be regarded as being both a software module for performing the method and a structure within a hardware component.
The apparatuses and modules illustrated in the above embodiments may be implemented by a computer chip or an entity, or by a product with certain functions.
For convenience of description, the above devices are described as being divided into various modules by functions, and are described separately. Of course, the functionality of the various modules may be implemented in the same one or more software and/or hardware implementations as the present application.
From the above description of the embodiments, it is clear to those skilled in the art that the present application can be implemented by software plus necessary general hardware platform. With this understanding in mind, the present solution, or portions thereof that contribute to the prior art, may be embodied in the form of a software product, which in a typical configuration includes one or more processors (CPUs), input/output interfaces, network interfaces, and memory. The computer software product may include instructions for causing a computing device (which may be a personal computer, a server, or a network device, etc.) to perform the methods described in the various embodiments or portions of embodiments of the present application. The computer software product may be stored in a memory, which may include forms of volatile memory in a computer readable medium, Random Access Memory (RAM) and/or non-volatile memory, such as Read Only Memory (ROM) or flash memory (flash RAM). Memory is an example of a computer-readable medium. Computer-readable media, including both non-transitory and non-transitory, removable and non-removable media, may implement information storage by any method or technology. The information may be computer readable instructions, data structures, modules of a program, or other data. Examples of computer storage media include, but are not limited to, phase change memory (PRAM), Static Random Access Memory (SRAM), Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM), other types of Random Access Memory (RAM), Read Only Memory (ROM), Electrically Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory (EEPROM), flash memory or other memory technology, compact disc read only memory (CD-ROM), Digital Versatile Discs (DVD) or other optical storage, magnetic cassettes, magnetic tape magnetic disk storage or other magnetic storage devices, or any other non-transmission medium that can be used to store information that can be accessed by a computing device. As defined herein, computer readable media does not include transitory computer readable media (transient media), such as modulated data signals and carrier waves.
The embodiments in the present specification are described in a progressive manner, and the same and similar parts among the embodiments are referred to each other, and each embodiment focuses on the differences from the other embodiments. In particular, as for the apparatus embodiment, since it is substantially similar to the method embodiment, the description is relatively simple, and for the relevant points, reference may be made to the partial description of the method embodiment.
The application is operational with numerous general purpose or special purpose computing system environments or configurations. For example: personal computers, server computers, hand-held or portable devices, tablet-type devices, multiprocessor systems, microprocessor-based systems, set top boxes, programmable consumer electronics, network PCs, minicomputers, mainframe computers, distributed computing environments that include any of the above systems or devices, and the like.
The application may be described in the general context of computer-executable instructions, such as program modules, being executed by a computer. Generally, program modules include routines, programs, objects, components, data structures, etc. that perform particular tasks or implement particular abstract data types. The application may also be practiced in distributed computing environments where tasks are performed by remote processing devices that are linked through a communications network. In a distributed computing environment, program modules may be located in both local and remote computer storage media including memory storage devices.
While the present application has been described with examples, those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that there are numerous variations and permutations of the present application without departing from the spirit of the application, and it is intended that the appended claims encompass such variations and permutations without departing from the spirit of the application.
Claims (10)
1. A method for determining investment decision results of an exploration and development project is characterized in that initial indexes in a value evaluation model of a target developer are provided; wherein the initial index is used for representing the operation condition of the target developer; the method comprises the following steps:
determining a key index in the value evaluation model according to the initial index;
establishing an incidence relation between the return on investment of the target developer and the key index;
determining an investment decision result corresponding to the target developer based on the incidence relation; wherein the investment decision result is used for representing the influence result of a target index in the key indexes on the return on investment; the target metrics include price, cost, investment and yield.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the value assessment model comprises a yield model or an empirical model; wherein,
the initial indicators in the yield model include: price, yield, commodity rate, commodity quantity, employee wages and benefits, depreciation rate, management costs, sales costs, financial costs, operating costs, financial accounting equivalents, exploration and development investments, asset proportion parameters, fixed assets and conversion coefficients;
the initial indicators in the empirical model include: price, yield, commodity rate, exploration and development investment, available reserve, fixed assets, depreciation rate, oil and gas integrated operation cost, natural oil and gas reduction rate after planning period, exploration success rate, sales tax and proportion of additional sales income, proportion of sales and management expenses to operation cost, disposal cost rate and discount rate.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein key metrics in the yield model include: price, commodity rate, yield, investment, sales revenue, first cost, and first tax; wherein the first cost expense comprises employee wages and benefits, depreciation and depreciation expenses, amortization expenses, mineral resource compensation expenses, special income money, security fund, safety production expenses, sales expenses, financial expenses, purchase service expenses and operation costs; the first tax comprising: crude oil value-added tax, natural gas value-added tax, business tax, consumption tax, city construction maintenance tax and resource tax;
key indicators in the empirical model include: price, yield, commodity rate, investment, sales revenue, second cost, and second tax; wherein the second cost costs include sales management costs, revenue generating costs, exploration costs, depreciation costs, and exploration costs; the second tax includes a sales tax and an add-on.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein determining key indicators in the value assessment model comprises:
calculating the safe production cost according to the yield in the initial index in the yield model, the crude oil safe production rate and the natural gas safe production rate in the management cost, and calculating the mineral resource compensation rate according to the commodity quantity, the price and the mineral resource compensation rate in the management cost in the initial index in the yield model;
calculating the sales tax and the addition according to the commodity quantity and the price in the initial index in the empirical model and the proportion of the sales tax and the addition to the sales income; and calculating the sales management cost according to the commodity quantity, the comprehensive oil and gas operation cost and the proportion of the sales and management cost to the operation cost in the initial indexes in the empirical model.
5. The method of claim 2, wherein correlating the return on investment of the target developer with the key indicator comprises:
and establishing the corresponding incidence relation of the yield model by adopting the following formula:
In1＝Y1×Cr1×P1
wherein, ROI1Representing the corresponding return on investment, In, of the yield model1、E1、C1、Ic1、Y1、Cr1And P1Respectively representing sales income, first tax, first cost, investment, yield, commodity rate and price in key indexes in the yield modelGrid;
and establishing the corresponding incidence relation of the empirical model by adopting the following formula:
In2＝Y2×Cr2×P2
wherein, ROI2Representing the corresponding return on investment, In, of the yield model2、E2、C2、Ic2、Y2、Cr2And P2Sales revenue, first tax, first cost, investment, yield, commodity rate, and price are respectively represented in key indicators in the yield model.
6. The method of claim 1, wherein determining the investment decision result corresponding to the target developer comprises:
calculating an initial value of the return on investment according to the incidence relation and the initial value of the target index;
adjusting an initial value of a specified index in the target indexes to a corresponding target value according to a specified change rate, and calculating a target value of the return on investment rate based on the incidence relation, the target value of the specified index and initial values of other indexes in the specified index; wherein the other indexes represent indexes other than the specified index among the specified indexes;
dividing the result of subtracting the initial value of the return on investment from the target value of the return on investment by the specified change rate to obtain the sensitivity of the return on investment to the specified index, and taking the sensitivity of the return on investment to the specified index as the investment decision result corresponding to the target developer.
7. The method of claim 5, wherein determining the investment decision result corresponding to the target developer further comprises:
under the condition that the price in the target index is a designated price, respectively determining target values of yield, investment and cost in the target index based on the incidence relation so as to enable the value of the return on investment rate to reach a designated return on investment rate value;
and taking the target values of the yield, the investment and the cost in the target indexes corresponding to the designated price and the designated return on investment value as the investment decision result corresponding to the target developer.
8. The method of claim 5, wherein determining the investment decision result corresponding to the target developer further comprises:
respectively determining target values of all the target indexes based on the incidence relation so as to enable the value of the return on investment rate to reach a specified return on investment rate value;
respectively determining the change rate value of each index according to the initial value and the target value of each index in the target indexes;
drawing curve data formed by the change rate values of all the indexes when the value of the return on investment is a specified return on investment value; the curve data is used for representing curves on the radar graph with each index as a coordinate;
and taking the curve data as an investment decision result corresponding to the target developer.
9. An apparatus for determining investment decision results for an exploration development project, the apparatus providing an initial indicator in a value assessment model of a target developer; wherein the initial index is used for representing the operation condition of the target developer; the device comprises: the system comprises a key index determining module, an incidence relation determining module and an investment decision result determining module; wherein,
the key index determining module is used for determining a key index in the value evaluation model according to the initial index;
the incidence relation determining module is used for establishing the incidence relation between the return on investment of the target developer and the key index;
the investment decision result determining module is used for determining an investment decision result corresponding to the target developer based on the incidence relation; wherein the investment decision result is used for representing the influence result of a target index in the key indexes on the return on investment; the target metrics include price, cost, investment and yield.
10. An apparatus for determining investment decision results for an exploration development project, the apparatus comprising a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored on the memory, the memory having stored therein an initial indicator in a value assessment model of a target developer; wherein the initial indicator is used for characterizing the business situation of the target developer, and the computer program is executed by the processor to perform the following steps:
determining a key index in the value evaluation model according to the initial index;
establishing an incidence relation between the return on investment of the target developer and the key index;
determining an investment decision result corresponding to the target developer based on the incidence relation; wherein the investment decision result is used for representing the influence result of a target index in the key indexes on the return on investment; the target metrics include price, cost, investment and yield.
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| CN110084641A (en) * | 2019-04-17 | 2019-08-02 | 新地能源工程技术有限公司 | Gas works design pricing method and device and management equipment and storage medium |
| CN113837510A (en) * | 2020-06-23 | 2021-12-24 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Oil gas development evaluation method and electronic equipment |
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN110084641A (en) * | 2019-04-17 | 2019-08-02 | 新地能源工程技术有限公司 | Gas works design pricing method and device and management equipment and storage medium |
| CN113837510A (en) * | 2020-06-23 | 2021-12-24 | 中国石油化工股份有限公司 | Oil gas development evaluation method and electronic equipment |
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