WO2023273207A1 - Système et procédé d'analyse économique de projet basés sur un procédé de valeur actuelle nette - Google Patents

Système et procédé d'analyse économique de projet basés sur un procédé de valeur actuelle nette Download PDF

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WO2023273207A1
WO2023273207A1 PCT/CN2021/139004 CN2021139004W WO2023273207A1 WO 2023273207 A1 WO2023273207 A1 WO 2023273207A1 CN 2021139004 W CN2021139004 W CN 2021139004W WO 2023273207 A1 WO2023273207 A1 WO 2023273207A1
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project
year
present value
module
price
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PCT/CN2021/139004
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English (en)
Chinese (zh)
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丁佳敏
陆胜勇
杜长明
李建华
朱慧萍
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浙江大学台州研究院
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
    • G06F17/00—Digital computing or data processing equipment or methods, specially adapted for specific functions
    • G06F17/10—Complex mathematical operations
    • G06F17/11—Complex mathematical operations for solving equations, e.g. nonlinear equations, general mathematical optimization problems
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
    • G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
    • G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
    • G06Q10/0639—Performance analysis of employees; Performance analysis of enterprise or organisation operations
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q30/00—Commerce
    • G06Q30/02—Marketing; Price estimation or determination; Fundraising
    • G06Q30/0283—Price estimation or determination
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q40/00—Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
    • G06Q40/06—Asset management; Financial planning or analysis

Definitions

  • the invention relates to the plasma field, in particular to a project economic analysis system and method based on the net present value method.
  • the purpose of the present invention is to solve the deficiencies of the prior art, and provide a project economic analysis system and method based on the net present value method, which has a simple structure and is easy to use.
  • a project economic analysis system based on the net present value method including an operation module, a historical data capture module, and an economic analysis module; wherein the operation module is connected to the historical data capture module and the economic analysis module by communication; the economic analysis The module is also communicated with the previous year data capture module;
  • the operation module is used to set the input, modify or delete the cash flow data of the past years, and to set and select the projects that need to be analyzed economically, as well as to set the input equity capital, external financing capital, and amortization period;
  • the operation module also includes storage The device, the storage device is used to store the data set and input;
  • the operation module also includes a display device, which facilitates human-computer interaction through the display device;
  • the historical data capture module is used to obtain the cash flow data of the specified years of the selected project from the operation module, and transmit the captured cash flow data to the economic analysis module;
  • the cash flow data includes cash inflow and cash outflow;
  • the economic analysis module selects the historical cash flow data of the project, and combines the discounted cash flow method and the net present value algorithm to obtain the minimum treatment subsidy price of the project;
  • the economic analysis module also includes an investment evaluation module and a price comparison module; the investment evaluation module, according to the set investment cost calculation formula, calculates the investment cost of each year within the amortization period; the price comparison module is used to compare different projects The minimum processing subsidy price of the project is compared and analyzed to obtain the item corresponding to the minimum value of the minimum processing subsidy price.
  • the economical analysis module also includes a list module, which is used to form a table with the obtained minimum processing subsidy price and corresponding items, and sort them according to the setting rules.
  • the setting rules include numerical forward order and numerical reverse order, and the numerical values include A numeric value for the minimum processing subsidy price.
  • a project economic analysis method based on the net present value method comprising the following steps:
  • Step 1 The investment evaluation module in the economic analysis module obtains the data information of the equity capital, external financing capital, and amortization period of the project to be evaluated from the operation module, and obtains the amortized value of the project to be evaluated according to the set investment cost calculation formula.
  • Step 2 The economic analysis module obtains the cash flow data of the project over the years from the operation module through the historical data capture module, including the cash inflow and cash outflow of the project over the years; and according to the cash flow formula based on the free cash flow discount method , to obtain the cash flow over the years;
  • Step 3 The economic analysis module calculates the expected rate of return of the asset according to the set capital asset pricing model, and replaces the discount rate in the free cash flow discount method with the discount rate of the asset's expected return to obtain the net present value formula;
  • Step 4 The economic analysis module substitutes the investment cost calculation formula and the cash flow formula into the net present value formula, and converts the net present value formula to obtain the project processing price calculation formula; the net present value combined with the net present value formula is 0, Obtain the lowest processing subsidy price of the item to be evaluated;
  • Step 5 The price comparison module in the economic analysis module compares the minimum treatment subsidy price with the minimum treatment subsidy price of other projects of the same type, and combines the sensitivity economic evaluation method of the analysis project to select the corresponding minimum treatment price with the smallest value
  • the project is used as an investment decision-making project.
  • step 1 the formula for calculating the investment cost in step 1 is as follows:
  • I inv (k) represents the investment cost of the k-th year in the amortization period
  • I 0 represents the initial investment cost
  • e r represents the equity capital ratio
  • n represents the amortization period, and the unit is years
  • k represents the amortization period
  • the k-th year of ; i EF represents the loan interest rate.
  • the free cash flow in step 2 includes inflow items and outflow items, wherein inflow items include power generation income, income from recycling metals and slag, solid waste treatment subsidy prices; outflow items include operating costs and taxes.
  • FCFE ⁇ p energy ( ⁇ ) ⁇ E+(p ⁇ +p metal+slag ) ⁇ q w -c O&M -f tax
  • FCFE ⁇ represents the cash flow in the ⁇ year
  • p energy ( ⁇ ) represents the on-grid electricity price in the ⁇ year
  • E represents the annual on-grid electricity in the ⁇ year, which is equivalent to the annual power generation of the project to be evaluated
  • p ⁇ Indicates the treatment subsidy price of unit solid waste in ⁇ year
  • p metal+slag indicates the selling price of metal and slag produced by unit solid waste in ⁇ year
  • q w indicates the annual solid waste treatment unit volume in ⁇ year
  • c O&M means operation and maintenance cost
  • f tax means tax.
  • the expected rate of return of assets is calculated according to the capital asset pricing model, which is expressed as:
  • R m represents the expected return of the market portfolio
  • R i represents the expected return of investment i
  • COV(R m , R i ) represents the covariance of R m and R i
  • ⁇ m 2 represents the variance of the market portfolio return
  • the net present value represents the difference between the present value of the future cash flow and the present value of the investment cost, and the formula for calculating the net present value is expressed as:
  • FCFE ⁇ represents the cash flow in year ⁇
  • I inv (t) represents the investment cost of year t in the amortization period
  • n represents the amortization period
  • ⁇ represents the year ⁇
  • v represents the operating cycle of the project
  • the set base year is usually the year when the project starts
  • NPV represents the net present value
  • ⁇ represents the construction period of the project
  • E(R) represents the expected return on assets.
  • p ⁇ represents the treatment subsidy price of unit solid waste in year ⁇
  • I inv (t) represents the investment cost in year t
  • n represents the amortization period
  • ⁇ represents year ⁇
  • v represents the operation cycle of the project
  • the set base year is usually the year when the project starts
  • ⁇ represents the construction period of the project
  • q w represents the annual volume of the same waste treatment unit in the year ⁇
  • E(R) represents the expected return on assets
  • the minimum processing price is the value obtained from the project processing price calculation formula when the net present value is 0.
  • FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of module connection in Embodiment 1 of the present invention.
  • Fig. 2 is a flow chart diagram of the method of Embodiment 1 of the present invention.
  • Fig. 3 is a timeline of construction, financing repayment and operation of the plasma power generation project in Embodiment 1 of the present invention.
  • an economic analysis system includes an operation module, a data capture module over the years, and an economic analysis module; wherein the operation module is connected with the data capture module over the years and the economic analysis module; the economic analysis module It is also communicated with the calendar year data capture module.
  • the operation module is used to set, input, modify or delete cash flow data over the years, set and select items that need to be analyzed economically, and set operations or settings such as input equity capital, external financing capital, and amortization period. input.
  • the operation module also includes a storage device, which can store the set input data.
  • the operation module also includes a display device, which facilitates human-computer interaction.
  • the historical data capture module is used to obtain the cash flow data of the specified years of the selected project from the operation module, and transmit the captured cash flow data to the economic analysis module;
  • the cash flow data includes cash inflow and cash outflow
  • Cash inflows in this example include revenue from electricity generation, revenue from recycling metals and slag, and subsidized prices for solid waste disposal; cash outflows include operating costs and taxes.
  • the economic analysis module selects the historical cash flow data of the project, and combines the discounted cash flow method and the net present value algorithm to obtain the minimum treatment subsidy price of the project.
  • the economic analysis module also includes an investment evaluation module and a price comparison module.
  • the investment evaluation module calculates the investment cost of each year within the amortization period according to the set investment cost calculation formula.
  • the price comparison module is used to compare and analyze the minimum treatment subsidy prices of different items, and obtain the item corresponding to the minimum treatment subsidy price with the smallest value.
  • the economic analysis module also includes a list module, which is used to form a table with the obtained minimum treatment subsidy price and corresponding items, and sort them according to the setting rules.
  • the setting rules include numerical positive order, numerical reverse order, etc., and the numerical value includes the minimum treatment subsidy price value.
  • the economic analysis method of the economic analysis module specifically includes the following steps:
  • Step 1 The investment evaluation module in the economic analysis module obtains the data information of the equity capital, external financing capital, and amortization period of the project to be evaluated from the operation module, and obtains the amortized value of the project to be evaluated according to the set investment cost calculation formula.
  • Step 2 The economic analysis module obtains the cash flow data of the project over the years from the operation module through the historical data capture module, including the cash inflow and cash outflow of the project over the years; and according to the cash flow formula based on the free cash flow discount method , to obtain the cash flow over the years;
  • Step 3 The economic analysis module calculates the expected return rate of assets according to the set capital asset pricing model, and replaces the discount rate in the free cash flow discount method with the discount rate of the expected return on assets to obtain the net present value formula;
  • Step 5 The price comparison module in the economic analysis module compares the lowest treatment subsidy price with the lowest treatment subsidy price of other projects of the same type, and selects the investment decision-making project of the project in combination with economic evaluation methods such as analyzing the sensitivity of the project; In this example, the item corresponding to the lowest processing price with the smallest value is selected as the investment decision item.
  • the calculation formula of the investment cost in the step 1 is as follows:
  • I inv (k) represents the investment cost of the k-th year in the amortization period
  • I 0 represents the initial investment cost, including equity capital and external financing capital
  • e r represents the ratio of equity capital
  • n represents the amortization period
  • the unit is year, which is 15 years in this example
  • k means the kth year in the amortization period
  • i EF means the loan interest rate of external financing capital.
  • the cash inflow in step 2 is income, and the cash outflow is expenditure.
  • the free cash flow in this example includes, but is not limited to, inflow items: revenue from power generation, revenue from recycling metals and slag, solid waste treatment subsidy prices, and outflow items: operating costs and taxes, where operating costs include fixed costs and variable costs.
  • Fixed costs refer to maintenance costs, purchase costs and other foreseeable expenses that require periodic expenditures or one-time expenditures; variable costs refer to unforeseen expenses, including equipment damage and maintenance costs, etc.; solid waste treatment subsidy prices represent the external environment for the unit Subsidies for solid waste treatment, the external environment includes local policies, national policies, etc.
  • the calculation of the cash flow FCFE is expressed as:
  • FCFE ⁇ p energy ( ⁇ ) ⁇ E+(p ⁇ +P metal+slag ) ⁇ q w -c O&M -f tax
  • FCFE ⁇ represents the cash flow in ⁇ year
  • p energy ( ⁇ ) represents the on-grid electricity price in ⁇ year, for example, p energy (2021) represents the on-grid electricity price in 2021
  • E represents the annual on-grid electricity in ⁇ year, namely The annual power generation of the project to be evaluated
  • p ⁇ represents the treatment subsidy price of unit solid waste in ⁇ year
  • p metal+slag represents the selling price of metal and slag produced by unit solid waste in ⁇ year
  • q w represents the ⁇ is the annual solid waste treatment unit volume in the year
  • c O&M represents operation and maintenance costs
  • f tax represents taxation.
  • the expected rate of return on assets is calculated according to the capital asset pricing model, expressed as:
  • the calculation formula of ⁇ is as follows:
  • R m represents the expected return of the market portfolio
  • R i represents the expected return of investment i
  • COV(R m , R i ) represents the covariance of Rm and Ri
  • ⁇ m 2 represents the variance of the market portfolio return.
  • ⁇ indicates the ⁇ -th year, such as 2021, etc.
  • v indicates the operation cycle of the project, which is 29 years in this example
  • ⁇ indicates the set base year, usually the year when the project starts
  • FCFE indicates the cash in the ⁇ year Flow
  • E(R) represents the expected return on assets.
  • the net present value represents the difference between the present value of the future cash flow and the present value of the investment cost, and the formula for calculating the net present value is expressed as:
  • FCFE ⁇ represents the cash flow in year ⁇
  • I inv (t) represents the investment cost of year t in the amortization period
  • n represents the amortization period
  • ⁇ represents the year ⁇
  • v represents the operating cycle of the project
  • the set base year is usually the year when the project starts
  • NPV means the net present value
  • ⁇ means the construction period of the project, which is 1 year in this example
  • E(R) means the expected return on assets.
  • the calculation formula of the project treatment price in the step 4 is obtained by transforming the calculation formula of the net present value NPV, and the calculation formula of the project treatment subsidy price p ⁇ is expressed as:
  • p ⁇ represents the treatment subsidy price of unit solid waste in year ⁇
  • I inv (t) represents the investment cost in year t
  • n represents the amortization period
  • ⁇ represents year ⁇
  • v represents the operation cycle of the project
  • the set base year is usually the year when the project starts
  • ⁇ indicates the construction period of the project, which is 1 year in this example
  • q w indicates the annual solid waste treatment unit volume in the year ⁇
  • E(R) indicates the asset expectation rate of return.
  • the lowest treatment subsidy price of the project can be obtained, and the profit and loss of the project can be balanced at the lowest treatment subsidy price; because in the calculation process, the treatment subsidy price is used as a variable, while other cash flow data and Investment cost data, etc. are all known quantities, so when the NPV is 0, the obtained treatment subsidy price is the lowest treatment subsidy price for the sustainable development of the project. There is also a profit in dealing with subsidized prices.
  • the calculation method of the minimum treatment subsidy price of other items of the same type in the step 5 is also obtained through steps 1-4. It should be noted that after the economic analysis module completes the calculation of the minimum treatment subsidy price of all items, the list module will also obtain all the items and the minimum treatment subsidy price, and fill the minimum treatment subsidy price and the corresponding item into the table , in this example, they are sorted according to the numerical value of the lowest processing subsidy price; the list module will also transfer the completed form to the storage device of the operation module, and display it through the display device of the operation module. Among them, the sensitivity analysis of the project adopts the existing analysis method.
  • the treatment subsidy price of the project is affected by the policy, fluctuates greatly, and occupies a large proportion in the cash flow; on the other hand, the project treatment subsidy price is part of the extra income.
  • the NPV is 0, that is, when the balance of payments is reached, the lowest project treatment subsidy price is sought, which means that the project has low dependence on the treatment subsidy price, so this project is selected as an investment decision-making project.

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Abstract

La présente invention concerne un système et un procédé d'analyse économique de projet basés sur un procédé de valeur actuelle nette. Dans la présente invention, le bénéfice et la perte d'un projet sont calculés au moyen d'un algorithme basé sur une valeur actuelle nette, et la valeur temporelle du capital est prise en considération de manière globale, de sorte que, dans le domaine de l'élimination de déchets solides à long terme et à environnement complexe, le prix d'élimination d'un projet peut être calculé avec précision et le projet optimal peut être sélectionné en tant que projet de prise de décision, ce qui permet de réaliser une analyse globale du plan, de réduire les risques et d'augmenter les bénéfices du projet. Un prix d'élimination de projet lorsque la valeur actuelle nette est 0 est calculé et est considéré comme le prix d'élimination optimal du projet, de manière à équilibrer le bénéfice et la perte du projet.
PCT/CN2021/139004 2021-06-27 2021-12-17 Système et procédé d'analyse économique de projet basés sur un procédé de valeur actuelle nette WO2023273207A1 (fr)

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CN105894154A (zh) * 2014-11-24 2016-08-24 国家电网公司 一种考虑环境成本的电厂环保机组投入产出计算方法
CN113449252A (zh) * 2021-06-27 2021-09-28 浙江大学台州研究院 一种基于净现值法的项目经济性分析系统及方法

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