CN104408558B - A kind of accounting operations analogue simulation model system - Google Patents
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- 238000004088 simulation Methods 0.000 title claims abstract description 21
- 238000004458 analytical method Methods 0.000 claims abstract description 30
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- 230000007613 environmental effect Effects 0.000 claims abstract description 6
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- 238000012502 risk assessment Methods 0.000 claims description 3
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Abstract
The present invention is a kind of high practicability accounting operations analogue simulation model system.Using financial simulation as core, consider external environmental factor and internal-corporate decision factor, by sensitivity analysis and objective management modeling tool, formed to external environment condition and the suggestion value of feedback of internal decision making quantizating index, and verified by simulation system, form the analogue simulation model system of closed loop.Wherein two big submodels are power supply and demand model and electricity trade model, and two big analysis models are sensitivity analysis model and objective management model, and two big extension functions are financial analysis and financial risk evaluation and warning function.The present invention not only considers financial data, and has merged the external influence factors such as the energy, power supply and demand, financial policy, monetary policy, electrovalence policy simultaneously, therefore model is comprehensive stronger, and the thinking of model more conforms to objective reality work requirements.Convenient and practical, simple possible of the invention, is favorably improved operation and financial capability forecasting accuracy.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the research of accounting operations emulation technology, specifically a kind of accounting operations analogue simulation model system.
Background technology
Influence factor is as the indispensable major part of model, and it is reasonable and comprehensive that it chooses whether, directly affects whole
The effect of model system.And financial forecast model traditional at present mainly uses the hook between enterprises financial data to check pass
System is predicted, and data are mainly derived from Finance Department, it is impossible to consider influence of the internal and external factors to finance model.
The content of the invention
It is an object of the invention to consider above mentioned problem and to provide a kind of comprehensively feasible raising operation and financial capability pre-
Survey the accounting operations analogue simulation model system of accuracy.
The accounting operations analogue simulation model system of the present invention is by simulating external environment condition and internal decision making come Analogic Corp.
Management environment, predict the financial situation and management performance in enterprise's following regular period by financial analysis, think enterprise
Industry senior management staff decision-making provides financial information and supported.The model system considers external environment condition using financial simulation as core
Factor and internal decision making factor, support that there is provided two big analysis model functions and two big extension function modules by two big submodels.
Wherein two big submodels are power supply and demand model and electricity trade model, and two big analysis models are sensitivity analysis model and mesh
Administrative model is marked, two big extension functions are financial analysis and financial risk evaluation and warning function.
The present invention considers external environmental factor and internal decision making factor, not only comprising financial data, while fusion
The external influence factors such as the energy, power supply and demand, financial policy, monetary policy, electrovalence policy, and cover submodel, analysis
Model and extension function module, model it is comprehensive stronger, the thinking of model more conforms to objective reality work requirements.The present invention
It is a kind of accounting operations emulation mould for being favorably improved operation and financial capability forecasting accuracy of convenient and practical simple possible
Analog model system.
Brief description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is structure chart of the invention；
Fig. 2 is the simplified principle figure of financial simulation model.
Embodiment
The accounting operations analogue simulation model system of the present invention considers external environmental factor using financial simulation as core
With internal decision making factor, support that there is provided two big analysis model functions and two big extension function modules by two big submodels.Wherein
Two big submodels are power supply and demand model and electricity trade model, and two big analysis models are sensitivity analysis model and target tube
Model is managed, two big extension functions are financial analysis and financial risk evaluation and warning function.
By taking Southern Power Grid Company accounting operations analogue simulation model system as an example.
In the present embodiment, above-mentioned two big submodel is supported i.e. with " econometric model " as core, passes through south electric network
In terms of company's power supply and demand model prediction power supply and demand core index, power supply, the electricity volume of simulation and forecast phase
And the electricity volume structure of all kinds of units；In terms of electricity needs, using economic electric power conduction model, comprising macroeconomic model with
Electric power demand forecasting model two parts.By taking Third Industry Economy electric power conduction model as an example,
Tertiary industry value added=A* tertiary industry investment in fixed assets+B* tertiary industry employed populations+C
Tertiary industry power consumption=D* tertiary industry value addeds+E
And with " programming evaluation model " for core, referred to by Southern Power Grid Company electricity trade model prediction purchase sale of electricity core
Mark.If c is purchases strategies, in the optional power purchase region of Southern Power Grid Company, there is n electricity transaction market, if vector x=
(x1, x2..., xn) it is purchase of electricity of the Southern Power Grid Company on n trade market, to simplify consideration, its power purchase total amount M assumes
For the constant that can be predicted in advance；The corresponding prices of n in the market purchase of electricity x are located at for p=(p1, p2..., pn) ', and often
The transaction value p in one marketiObey N (μi,) normal distribution；The trading volume x of each in the marketiExerted oneself respectively by power supply
F is used in constraint, power constraint and trading program constraint, these constraintsi(a1, a2..., am) and gi(b1, b2..., bj) represent, institute
Parameter a=(a in constrained condition1, a2..., am) and b=(b1, b2..., bj) a certain constraint space A and B is belonging respectively to,
While the trading volume in each market also needs to meet the management requirements such as energy-conservation, emission reduction, drop damage, y is used1, y2... yiRepresent that these are managed
Reason requirement, 0≤yk≤wk, k=1,2 ..., l is exactly the constraints suffered by various management are required.Represented with mathematic(al) representation
For：
Power purchase total amount M can be predicted according to macroeconomic model, can also refer to company management target prediction, simultaneously
According to can actually adjust at any time.By power purchase decision optimization model, the power purchase valency and purchase of electricity of each electricity market are obtained, and
Prediction sale of electricity valency and electricity sales amount, and then obtain the financial index such as power selling income, purchases strategies on this basis.It is straight for large user
Power purchase is taken in, due to its particularity, the progress of reporting situations according to company management's target and market to Direct Purchase of Electric Energy by Large Users policy
Growth rate is predicted, it is contemplated that following this part income.
In the present embodiment, above-mentioned two big analysis model can determine for above-mentioned submodel and other external environment conditions and inside
Plan factor index is analyzed.The key factor of sensitivity analysis model analysis influence Southern Power Grid Company financial result, target
Administrative model analysis will reach Southern Power Grid Company financial objectives, and key factor needs the condition met.
In the present embodiment, above-mentioned finance analysis function is by analyzing the history and prediction data of Southern Power Grid Company, generation
Analyze chart and report；Financial risk evaluation and warning function combination Southern Power Grid Company history and prediction data analysis result,
Generate the risk assessment and early warning chart and report of Southern Power Grid Company.
In the present embodiment, said external environmental factor is macro economic policy, electrovalence policy, involved by Southern Power Grid Company
The electricity power supply and demand of five provinces, internal decision making factor is the investment of Southern Power Grid Company, financing, capital operation, cost, manpower money
Source control, power purchase decision-making.
In the present embodiment, above-mentioned financial analysis includes the statement analysis of Southern Power Grid Company, financial capability analysis, Du Pont point
Analysis, State Assets Administration Committee's examination analysis, EVA analyses, dynamic analysis, valuation analysis and sustainable growth analysis；Financial risk is evaluated and pre-
Alert financial risk evaluation, financial risk early warning, risk analysis coordinate diagram, early-warning lamp and instrument board comprising Southern Power Grid Company,
Risk report.
The present invention accounting operations simulation model simplified principle figure as shown in Fig. 2 external environment condition and internal decision making each
Key index is acted in Fig. 2 each submodel, wherein with electricity price model, depreciation amortization model, cash financing interest
Model based on model, operating income model, running cost model, financial expenses model are transition model, Profit model, cash
Discharge model, Asset Liability Model obtain EVA models and other master financials refer on this basis to predict the outcome model
Mark.Financial forecast model focuses on Cash flow prospects, and balance sheet on this basis using forecasting of profit as core, and then
Predict the financial index such as EVA.
Embodiment described above is only that the preferred embodiment of the present invention is described, not to the model of the present invention
Enclose and be defined, on the premise of design spirit of the present invention is not departed from, technical side of the those of ordinary skill in the art to the present invention
In various modifications and improvement that case is made, the protection domain that claims of the present invention determination all should be fallen into.
Claims (4)
1. a kind of accounting operations analogue simulation model method for building up, it is characterised in that using financial simulation as core, considers outer
Portion's environmental factor and internal decision making factor, are supported by two big submodels, and provide two big analytic function modules and two big extensions
Functional module, wherein two big submodels are power supply and demand model and electricity trade model, two big analytic function modules are sensitivity
Property analytic function module and objective management functional module, two big extension function modules are financial analysis module and financial risk evaluation
With warning function module；
Third Industry Economy electric power conduction model is：
Tertiary industry value added=A1* tertiary industry investment in fixed assets+B1* tertiary industry employed populations+C
Tertiary industry power consumption=D* tertiary industry value addeds+E
Above-mentioned A1, B1, C, D are coefficients, pass through electricity trade model prediction purchase sale of electricity core index --- with " programming evaluation mould
Type " is core, in the optional power purchase region of grid company, there is n electricity transaction market, if vector x=(x1, x2..., xn)
For purchase of electricity of the grid company on n trade market, to simplify consideration, its power purchase total amount M is assumed to predict in advance
Constant；The corresponding prices of n in the market purchase of electricity x are located at for p=(p1, p2..., pn) ', and the settlement price in each market
Lattice piObeyNormal distribution；The trading volume x of each in the marketiRespectively by power supply units limits, power constraint and friendship
F is used in easily plan constraint, these constraintsi(a1, a2..., am) and gi(b1, b2..., bj) represent, the parameter in suffered constraints
A=(a1, a2..., am) and b=(b1, b2..., bj) a certain constraint space A and B is belonging respectively to, while the transaction in each market
Measure and also need to meet energy-conservation, emission reduction, drop damage management requirement, use y1, y2..., ylRepresent that these management are required, 0≤yk≤wk, k=
1,2 ..., l is exactly the constraints suffered by various management are required, is expressed as with mathematic(al) representation：
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F (x, p) is the mathematic(al) representation of purchases strategies.
2. accounting operations analogue simulation model method for building up according to claim 1, it is characterised in that above-mentioned two big analyses
Functional module is analyzed for above-mentioned submodel and external environment condition and internal decision making factor index, sensitivity analysis function mould
Block analysis influences the key factor of financial result, and the analysis of objective management functional module will reach financial objectives, and key factor needs
The condition of satisfaction.
3. accounting operations analogue simulation model method for building up according to claim 1, it is characterised in that above-mentioned two big extensions
Functional module, financial analysis module is by analysis of history and prediction data, generation analysis chart and report, financial risk evaluation with
Warning function module combination history and prediction data analysis result, generation risk assessment and early warning chart and report.
4. the accounting operations analogue simulation model method for building up according to any one of claims 1 to 3, it is characterised in that outside
Environmental factor is electricity power supply and demand, macro economic policy, electrovalence policy, and internal decision making factor is investment, financing, capital fortune
Battalion, cost, human resource management, power purchase decision-making.
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| CN112286986B (en) * | 2020-10-14 | 2021-08-03 | 北京乾唐伟业科技股份公司 | Property right analysis management system based on enterprise genealogy |
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| CN102117379A (en) * | 2010-01-04 | 2011-07-06 | 黑龙江电力职工大学 | Experiential teaching simulation training method for power market commercial operation |
| CN102930458A (en) * | 2012-10-24 | 2013-02-13 | 国网能源研究院 | Method and system for electricity price evaluation simulation |
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| CN102117379A (en) * | 2010-01-04 | 2011-07-06 | 黑龙江电力职工大学 | Experiential teaching simulation training method for power market commercial operation |
| CN102930458A (en) * | 2012-10-24 | 2013-02-13 | 国网能源研究院 | Method and system for electricity price evaluation simulation |
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