WO2022201477A1 - 推定装置、推定方法及び推定プログラム - Google Patents
推定装置、推定方法及び推定プログラム Download PDFInfo
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H04—ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
- H04L—TRANSMISSION OF DIGITAL INFORMATION, e.g. TELEGRAPHIC COMMUNICATION
- H04L41/00—Arrangements for maintenance, administration or management of data switching networks, e.g. of packet switching networks
- H04L41/06—Management of faults, events, alarms or notifications
- H04L41/069—Management of faults, events, alarms or notifications using logs of notifications; Post-processing of notifications
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- G—PHYSICS
- G08—SIGNALLING
- G08B—SIGNALLING OR CALLING SYSTEMS; ORDER TELEGRAPHS; ALARM SYSTEMS
- G08B31/00—Predictive alarm systems characterised by extrapolation or other computation using updated historic data
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H04—ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
- H04L—TRANSMISSION OF DIGITAL INFORMATION, e.g. TELEGRAPHIC COMMUNICATION
- H04L41/00—Arrangements for maintenance, administration or management of data switching networks, e.g. of packet switching networks
- H04L41/06—Management of faults, events, alarms or notifications
- H04L41/0677—Localisation of faults
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H04—ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
- H04L—TRANSMISSION OF DIGITAL INFORMATION, e.g. TELEGRAPHIC COMMUNICATION
- H04L41/00—Arrangements for maintenance, administration or management of data switching networks, e.g. of packet switching networks
- H04L41/12—Discovery or management of network topologies
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H04—ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
- H04L—TRANSMISSION OF DIGITAL INFORMATION, e.g. TELEGRAPHIC COMMUNICATION
- H04L41/00—Arrangements for maintenance, administration or management of data switching networks, e.g. of packet switching networks
- H04L41/16—Arrangements for maintenance, administration or management of data switching networks, e.g. of packet switching networks using machine learning or artificial intelligence
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- H—ELECTRICITY
- H04—ELECTRIC COMMUNICATION TECHNIQUE
- H04L—TRANSMISSION OF DIGITAL INFORMATION, e.g. TELEGRAPHIC COMMUNICATION
- H04L43/00—Arrangements for monitoring or testing data switching networks
- H04L43/50—Testing arrangements
Definitions
- the present invention relates to an estimation device, an estimation method, and an estimation program.
- a trunk system facility consisting of a cable including a large number of core wires, one of the many core wires, and a core wire in which one core wire is branched into a plurality of core wires (hereinafter referred to as a drop cable)
- a drop cable It may be composed of wiring system equipment consisting of ), terminal equipment (ONU: Optical Network Unit) installed in the user's residence, etc.
- the number of devices that can issue an alarm when they malfunction is limited. For example, when a cable is cut, the device connected by this cable issues an alarm because the cable itself cannot issue an alarm. By analyzing these alarms, it is sometimes possible to determine which part has failed, but at present, skilled operators often refer to the combination of alarms that have been raised to determine the failure part. . In addition, when judging only based on an alarm at a certain point in time and when looking at the entire history of alarms going back to the past, the contents of the judgment of the failure location may be misunderstood.
- failure point if the failure point cannot be identified, workers may be dispatched to the section where the failure may occur and the failure point may be identified using a testing machine or by visual inspection. In addition to the increase in human and financial costs due to dispatching workers, the number of workers themselves is decreasing. There is a demand for a technique for identifying a specific failure location from an alarm.
- the present invention has been made in view of the above, and is intended to estimate in which section of a connection facility connecting a building housing telecommunication facilities to a terminal device in a user's premises a failure has occurred.
- an estimation device is a connection facility that connects a building in which telecommunication facilities are accommodated to a terminal device located in each user's home.
- a cable including a plurality of first core wires branched by a first branching equipment, a second branching equipment for branching the first core wire into a plurality of second core wires, and terminating the second core wire
- a collection unit that collects alarms issued when the equipment that constitutes the connection equipment is in an abnormal state, and the type of collected alarm and the equipment that is generating the alarm.
- an estimating unit for estimating in which section of the connection equipment the failure has occurred, based on the above.
- connection equipment that connects the building housing the telecommunications equipment to the terminal device in the user's home a failure has occurred.
- FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating an outline of connection equipment.
- FIG. 2 is a diagram for explaining an overview of connection equipment.
- FIG. 3 is a diagram for explaining an equipment configuration and a method of estimating a failure section.
- 4 is a diagram schematically illustrating an example of a configuration of an estimation device according to Embodiment 1.
- FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of items in the device log.
- FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing a processing procedure of processing executed by the estimation device 10 according to the first embodiment.
- FIG. 7 is a flow chart showing the procedure of the estimation process shown in FIG.
- FIG. 8 is a diagram for explaining determination conditions in the determination processing shown in FIG.
- FIG. 9 is a flow chart showing the procedure of the estimation process shown in FIG. FIG.
- FIG. 10 is a diagram for explaining determination conditions in the determination processing shown in FIG.
- FIG. 11 is a flowchart showing the procedure of the estimation process shown in FIG. 6
- 12A and 12B are diagrams for explaining determination conditions in the determination processing shown in FIG. 11.
- FIG. FIG. 13 is a flowchart showing the procedure of the estimation process shown in FIG. 6
- FIG. 14 is a diagram for explaining determination conditions in the determination processing shown in FIG.
- FIG. 15 is a diagram for explaining an overview of connection equipment.
- FIG. 16 is a diagram showing an example of a device log.
- FIG. 17 is a diagram showing an example of a device log.
- FIG. 18 is a flowchart of a procedure of estimation processing according to the second embodiment.
- FIG. 19 is a flow chart showing the procedure of the faulty cable estimation process shown in FIG.
- FIG. 20 is a diagram showing a correspondence relationship between alarm appearance patterns and failure locations.
- 21 is a diagram schematically showing an example of a configuration of a learning device according to Embodiment 3.
- FIG. 22 is a diagram explaining the flow of the learning process according to the third embodiment and the estimation process according to the third embodiment.
- 23 is a diagram schematically illustrating an example of a configuration of an estimation device according to Embodiment 3.
- FIG. FIG. 24 is a flowchart of a learning process procedure according to the third embodiment.
- 25 is a flowchart of a procedure of estimation processing according to Embodiment 3.
- FIG. 26 is a diagram showing the estimation accuracy of the result of estimating the location of failure by the operator and the result of estimating the location of failure by the estimation device according to the third embodiment.
- FIG. 27 is a diagram illustrating an example of a computer that realizes an estimation device and a learning device by executing a program;
- FIG.1 and FIG.2 is a figure explaining the outline
- the configuration when connecting from the accommodation building (inside) of the communication line carrier side to the user's home is an on-site device on the upper side (on the side of the station building of the communication carrier of the optical line).
- Network equipment, OLT (Optical Line Terminal)) 1 core line is split into 4 core lines (first core line) using a splitter (4SP (first branch facility)) in the station building branched.
- a splitter (8SP (second branching facility for branching the first core wire into a plurality of second core wires)) is used to branch into eight core wires (second core wires).
- 4SP first branch facility
- a splitter 8SP (second branching facility for branching the first core wire into a plurality of second core wires)
- ONU Terminal Unit
- the OLT stores device logs.
- a splitter is a device for separating and joining lines in data communication.
- a connection method using a splitter allows multiple people to efficiently use the optical fiber in the main line, so compared to the method of connecting the optical fiber directly to the user's home, the facility efficiency is improved, and construction costs and usage costs are reduced. can be lowered.
- 4SP is a 4-branch splitter installed in the station.
- 8SP is an 8-branch splitter installed outside the station. Normally, 4 SPs and 8 SPs are connected by the ONU in the user's premises, so 32 users share one core line connected to the in-house equipment.
- the inside of the station refers to the inside of the station building on the side of the telecommunications carrier in optical communication. Outside the office is outside the station building of the telecommunications carrier in optical communication. The ONU in the user's home is also included in the off-site.
- the device log is time-series data divided into time slots at regular time intervals, and includes alarms issued when the devices constituting the connection facility shown in FIG. 1 are in an abnormal state.
- the trunk cable (cable containing multiple first core wires) is a cable that is connected to the in-house equipment and is connected with 8SP. Considering the efficiency of use, usually about 100 to 1000 fibers are contained in the trunk cable.
- the distribution cable is a cable connected from 8SP to the bottom. Normally, about 8 to 100 cores are contained in the wiring cable.
- a drop cable is a cable for leading from a user wiring point to a user's home, and is also called a lead-in cable.
- the upper part refers to the station building of the optical line communication carrier from the target device.
- “8SP upper cable” refers to the trunk cable from the telecommunications carrier's office to 8SP.
- the bottom refers to the user premises side from the device of interest.
- “8SP lower cable” equipment that connects the second core wire to ONU” refers to the distribution cable and drop cable that are connected from 8SP to the user's home.
- the highest (closest to the local) element common to the type of alarm being issued and the facility issuing the alarm is A technique for specifying a fault location by specifying it will be described.
- the above configuration is assumed in this embodiment, it may be appropriately changed according to the relationship between multiplexing and hierarchy.
- Fig. 3 is a diagram explaining the equipment configuration and the method of estimating the failure section.
- the line test ((1) in Fig. 3) is used to estimate the occurrence of failures in the network section within the facility. It is possible to estimate the occurrence of a failure based on the flashing state of the LED, symptoms, etc.).
- the access line section from the network equipment in the premises to the ONU main body in the user's home, it was difficult to determine the location of the failure, and the accuracy of the arrangement for the failure was sometimes low.
- the device log is used to estimate whether or not a failure has occurred in the access line section.
- the estimation method according to Embodiment 1 based on device logs for a certain period of time going back in the past, as a failure that affects multiple lines, whether there is an impact on the entire 4-branch splitter (4SP) and 8 Determine if there is an impact on the entire branch splitter (8SP).
- the determination is based on the entire history of logs during the past month, for example, rather than on a certain snapshot log.
- having an influence can be said to mean that all of the devices arranged below the splitter (on the user side) issue an alarm.
- FIG. 4 is a diagram schematically illustrating an example of a configuration of an estimation device according to Embodiment 1.
- FIG. 4 is a diagram schematically illustrating an example of a configuration of an estimation device according to Embodiment 1.
- the estimating device 10 reads a predetermined program into a computer or the like including ROM (Read Only Memory), RAM (Random Access Memory), CPU (Central Processing Unit), etc., and the CPU executes the predetermined program. is realized by The estimating device 10 also has a communication interface for transmitting and receiving various information to and from another device connected via a wired connection or a network.
- the estimation device 10 has a collection unit 11 , an estimation unit 12 and an output unit 13 .
- the collection unit 11 collects alarms issued when the equipment constituting the connection facility shown in FIG. 1 is in an abnormal state. Specifically, the collection unit 11 collects alarms by receiving input of OLT device logs (alarm history) in the optical communication equipment.
- FIG. 5 is a diagram showing an example of items in a device log.
- the equipment log contains items such as time stamp (yyyymmdd hh:mm:ss format), line accommodation position (package number, slot number, port number), alarm name, alarm occurrence classification (occurrence / recovery).
- the estimation unit 12 estimates in which section of the connection equipment shown in FIG.
- the location of the failure the section in which the failure occurs. Therefore, in the first embodiment, by analyzing a large number (for example, 5000) of device logs, the types of alarms and the corresponding relationships between the facilities generating the alarms and the failure locations are obtained in advance.
- the estimating unit 12 estimates the location of the failure by executing the determination logic based on the previously obtained correspondence relationship between the type of alarm and the location of the failure.
- the estimating unit 12 confirms whether there is an impact on all 4 SPs and whether there is an impact on all 8 SPs as a failure that affects multiple lines. Subsequently, in the estimation method according to Embodiment 1, when it is estimated that there is no effect on multiple lines, it is regarded as a single line failure, and by further isolating the failure location, in the range from the access line section to the ONU Presence or absence of failure is estimated. The estimating unit 12 determines the presence or absence of degradation or service disconnection in 4SP and the presence or absence of degradation or service disconnection in 8SP with respect to the type of alarm described in the device log and the facility for which the alarm is issued.
- the estimating unit 12 determines whether or not the ONU has been powered off and whether or not the power off period has been prolonged.
- the estimating unit 12 estimates whether the failure location is the inside of the premises, the cable above the 8SP, the cable below the 8SP, or the ONU main body, according to the determination result of each determination.
- the estimating unit 12 estimates the possibility of a failure below the ONU based on the history of alarms in the device log, depending on whether or not there is a log output from the port corresponding to the ONU to be estimated.
- the trouble is, for example, failure of the ONU or the port that the user connects to the opposite side of the ONU, poor connection of the cable connected to the ONU, etc. It is intended that one of the devices is not normal.
- the output unit 13 outputs the result of estimation by the estimation unit 12. During actual operation, the output unit 13 outputs the estimated failure location from the viewpoint of convenience for the user of the optical line communication service provider who uses the estimation result.
- the output unit 13 may output a combination of the location of the failure and the contents of the repair arrangement. In the subsequent processing, an example will be described in which a combination of a failure location and an order content is output as an estimation result.
- FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing a processing procedure of processing executed by the estimation device 10 according to the first embodiment.
- the collection unit 11 collects alarms by inputting device logs of the connection equipment shown in FIG. 1 (step S11).
- the estimating unit 12 performs an estimating process of estimating the failure point of the connection equipment shown in FIG. 1 based on the device log (step S12).
- the output unit 13 performs an output process of outputting the estimation result by the estimation unit 12 (step S13).
- the estimation unit 12 refers to the device log and determines whether or not there is a multiple wiring fault.
- the estimation unit 12 determines whether or not service disconnection is occurring in all 8SPs (step S21 in FIG. 7).
- FIG. 8 is a diagram for explaining determination conditions in the determination processing shown in FIG.
- the estimating unit 12 determines whether service disconnections that occurred simultaneously (within 5 seconds before and after) in two or more ports including the corresponding port among the eight ports are still occurring. judge. Specifically, the estimating unit 12 finds two or more out of 8 ports around its own port that have experienced service disruptions that have continued up to the present time, and combines the times at which the service disruptions occurred two by two. Then, determine if there is a difference whose absolute value is within 5 seconds.
- step S21 in FIG. 7 If service disconnection is occurring in all 8SPs (step S21 in FIG. 7: Yes), the estimation unit 12 determines whether or not service disconnection has occurred and is continuing at the same timing for the 8SPs other than the relevant 8SP (Fig. 7 step S22). Note that the "corresponding 8SP" is the 8SP to which the own line is connected among the four 8SPs. As shown in FIG. 8, in step S22 of FIG. 7, the estimating unit 12 performs the It is determined whether or not there is a service disconnection that occurred within 5 seconds before or after the time of the service disconnection that occurred in step S21 of FIG. 7, and that service disconnection has continued to the present.
- step S22 in FIG. 7 If service disconnection has occurred and continues at the same timing in a service other than the corresponding 8SP (step S22 in FIG. 7: Yes), the estimation unit 12 estimates that there is an external failure (upper part of 8SP) (step S23 in FIG. 7). ), it is determined that the content of the order is an external order (step S24 in FIG. 7). If the service disconnection has occurred at the same timing and is not continuing at the 8SP other than the corresponding 8SP (step S22 in FIG. 7: No), the estimation unit 12 estimates that there is an external failure (lower part of the 8SP) (step S25 in FIG. 7). , it is determined that the content of the arrangement is an out-of-office arrangement (step S26 in FIG. 7).
- step S31 in FIG. 9 is a diagram for explaining determination conditions in the determination processing shown in FIG. As shown in FIG. 10, in step S31 of FIG. 9, the estimating unit 12 determines whether or not 5 ports or more out of 32 ports under the 4SP have one or more uplink error degradations in 3 days. do.
- the numerical values used as threshold values, such as 5 ports or more, 3 days, 1 time or more, 5 seconds, etc., are designed based on the statistical values and prior knowledge of the implementation location.
- step S31 in FIG. 9 the estimation unit 12 determines whether the suspect user can be identified (step S32 in FIG. 9).
- the "suspect user” is the cause line that affects the failure of the entire 8SP.
- step S32 of FIG. 9 the estimation unit 12 determines whether or not there is a user with a suspected flag of "1".
- the estimation unit 12 determines whether the suspected user is the user itself (step S33 of FIG. 9). It should be noted that the self is the "own line" (of the contract for which the failure was reported). In step S33 of FIG. 9, the estimating unit 12 (1) sets a suspicion flag for less than 2 ports out of 8 SPs and the self is suspected, and (2) sets a suspicion flag for less than 2 ports out of 8 SPs and the self is not a suspect. or (3) 3 ports or more out of 8 SPs have the suspected flag set.
- step S33 the estimating unit 12 estimates an external failure (lower part of 8SP to ONU) (step S34 in FIG. 9), It is determined that the content is an off-site arrangement (step S35 in FIG. 9).
- step S33 in FIG. 9: (2) the determination result of step S33 in FIG. 9: (2)
- step S36 the estimating unit 12 estimates an off-site failure (lower part of 8SP of other line to ONU) ( (step S36), and it is determined that the content of the arrangement is outside arrangement (step S37 in FIG. 9).
- step S33 is (3) (step S33 in FIG. 9: (3))
- the estimation unit 12 estimates that there is an external failure (8SP upper part) (step S38 in FIG. 9), and the arrangement content is It is determined that it is an out-of-office arrangement (step S39 in FIG. 9).
- step S32 in FIG. 9 No
- the estimating unit 12 presumes that there is a failure related to the on-site equipment or an ONU failure (step S40 in FIG. 9). It is determined that there is (step S41 in FIG. 9).
- step S31 in FIG. 9 When uplink degradation does not occur frequently in all 4SPs (step S31 in FIG. 9: No), the estimation unit 12 determines whether downlink degradation or service disconnection occurs frequently in all 4SPs (step S31 in FIG. 11). step S51). 12A and 12B are diagrams for explaining determination conditions in the determination processing shown in FIG. 11. FIG. As shown in FIG. 8, in step S51 of FIG. 11, the estimating unit 12 detects 5 ports or more out of 32 ports under 4SPs, downlink error degradation or service disconnection 4 times or more in 3 days. Determines whether or not it has occurred (the sum of two types).
- step S51 in FIG. 11 If downlink degradation or service disconnection occurs frequently in the entire 4SP (step S51 in FIG. 11: Yes), the estimation unit 12 determines whether the suspect user can be identified (step S52 in FIG. 11). ). If it is an actual facility, it will not break cleanly, and errors may occur and service disconnection may occur intermittently. This can occur not only in ONUs, but also in units of OLTs and SPs, as well as in units of subordinate facilities housed in OLTs and SPs. In other words, even if a certain piece of equipment fails, the equipment housed in that equipment may not issue an alarm at the same time. Therefore, in step S52, it is determined whether or not a failure has occurred in each line based on the number and types of alarms generated within a predetermined period of time.
- the judgment can be set as appropriate, and for example, the occurrence of downlink error degradation, uplink error degradation, and service interruption may be used as types.
- the estimating unit 12 determines whether or not there is a user whose suspicion flag is "1", as in step S32 of FIG.
- step S51 in FIG. 11 Yes
- step S53 in FIG. 11 the estimating unit 12 sets (1) a suspect flag for less than 2 ports in 8 SPs and the self as a suspect, and (2) less than 2 ports in 8 SPs, as in step S33 in FIG. It is determined whether the suspect flag is present and the self is not suspected, or (3) the suspect flag is set on 3 or more ports out of the 8 SPs.
- step S53 If the determination result of step S53 is (1) (step S53: (1) in FIG. 11), the estimating unit 12 estimates an external failure (8SP lower part to ONU) (step S54 in FIG. 11), It is determined that the content is external arrangement (internal 0 report) (step S55 in FIG. 11). If the determination result of step S53 is (2) (step S53 in FIG. 11: (2)), the estimating unit 12 estimates that there is an off-site failure (lower part of 8SP to ONU of other line) (step S56 in FIG. 11). ), and it is determined that the contents of the order are outside orders (internal information 0) (step S57 in FIG. 11). If the determination result in step S53 is (3) (step S53 in FIG. 11: (3)), the estimating unit 12 estimates that there is an off-site failure (8SP upper part) (step S58 in FIG. 11), and the arrangement content is It is determined that it is an outside arrangement (step S59 in FIG. 11).
- step S52 in FIG. 11 No
- the estimating unit 12 presumes that there is an on-site failure (PKG failure or TIE cable failure) (step S60 in FIG. 11), and the contents of the arrangement are on-site arrangements. (Step S61 in FIG. 11).
- step S51 in FIG. 11 When downlink deterioration and service disconnection do not frequently occur in the entire 4SP (step S51 in FIG. 11: No), the estimation unit 12 determines whether or not downlink deterioration or service disconnection frequently occurs in the entire 8SP. (step S62 in FIG. 11). In step S62 of FIG. 11, the estimating unit 12 determines whether or not two or more of the eight ports of the relevant line have downlink error degradation or service disconnection four or more times in three days.
- step S62 in FIG. 11 If downlink deterioration or service disconnection occurs frequently in the entire 8SP (step S62 in FIG. 11: Yes), the estimating unit 12 estimates an external failure (8SP upper part or 8SP failure) (step S63 in FIG. 11). ), it is determined that the content of the order is an external order (step S64 in FIG. 11).
- step S62 in FIG. 11: No A case where downlink deterioration and service disconnection do not occur frequently in the entire 8SP (step S62 in FIG. 11: No) will be explained.
- the suspected part is other than 4SP and 8SP, so the lower part of the ONU (that is, the home failure) is suspected as the suspected part. That is, since it is estimated that there is no effect on multiple lines, the failure is regarded as a single line failure, and the following processing is performed to isolate the location of the failure.
- the estimating unit 12 determines whether or not ONU power-off occurs frequently (step S71 in FIG. 13).
- FIG. 14 is a diagram for explaining determination conditions in the determination processing shown in FIG. As shown in FIG. 14, in step S71 of FIG. 13, the estimating unit 12 determines whether or not ONU power failure has occurred four times or more in the 31 days in its own port.
- the estimating unit 12 estimates that the ONU main body is broken (step S72 in FIG. 13), and determines that the order content is DIY order ( Step S73 in FIG. 13).
- the DIY arrangement is, for example, sending repair parts for repair by the user himself/herself.
- step S71 in FIG. 13 NO
- the estimation unit 12 determines whether or not upper system errors occur frequently (step S74 in FIG. 13).
- "Upper system error” includes service disconnection, upstream error deterioration, and downstream error deterioration.
- step S74 of FIG. 13 the estimating unit 12 determines whether the service disconnection, the deterioration of the upstream error, or the deterioration of the downstream error occurs 4 or more times (the sum of the number of occurrences of the 3 types) in the 3 days at its own port. determine whether or not
- step S74 in FIG. 13 Yes
- the estimating unit 12 presumes that there is an ONU upper failure (step S75 in FIG. 13), and determines that the order content is an off-site arrangement (step S76 in FIG. 13).
- step S74 in FIG. 13 determines whether or not the service has been disconnected for a long period of time (step S77 in FIG. 13). In step S77 of FIG. 13, the estimating unit 12 determines whether or not there is an event that the service interruption has continued for 30 minutes or more at its own port within 10 days. However, in the case of products by a specific manufacturer, service interruption due to ONU power failure is excluded.
- step S77 in FIG. 13 Yes
- the estimating unit 12 presumes that there is an ONU upper failure (step S78 in FIG. 13), and determines that the content of the arrangement is an out-of-office arrangement. (step S79 in FIG. 13).
- step S77 in FIG. 13 the estimation unit 12 determines whether the service disconnection has not continued for a long period of time (step S77 in FIG. 13: No). In step S80 of FIG. 13, the estimating unit 12 determines whether an ONU power failure occurred 30 minutes or more ago in its own port and whether or not there is a log of ONU failure recovery up to now.
- step S80 in FIG. 13 Yes
- the estimating unit 12 presumes that there is an ONU main unit failure (step S81 in FIG. 13), and determines that the order content is a DIY arrangement. Determine (step S82 in FIG. 13).
- step S80 in FIG. 13 No
- the estimation unit 12 determines whether the log of the port is output (step S83 in FIG. 13). In step S83 of FIG. 13, the estimation unit 12 determines whether even one log has been output from its own port within the last 31 days.
- step S83 in FIG. 13 Yes
- the estimating unit 12 presumes that the ONU has a lower part failure (step S84 in FIG. 13), and determines that the order content is other. (step S85 in FIG. 13).
- step S83 in FIG. 13 No
- the estimating unit 12 estimates that it is not subject to determination (step S86 in FIG. 13), and determines that the order content is other (step S86 in FIG. 13 step S87).
- Embodiment 1 the correspondence between the types of alarms, the equipment for which alarms are issued, and the failure locations described above is obtained in advance, and the judgment logic based on this correspondence is established.
- this determination logic makes it possible to estimate in which section of the connection facility connecting the building housing the telecommunication facility to the user's home the failure has occurred.
- this determination logic by executing this determination logic, it is possible to accurately ascertain the location of the failure and the details of the arrangement in a short period of time. 7 to 14 should be appropriately redesigned according to the location where the first embodiment is to be applied and the facility being used. This is because it depends on the distance between each device and the station building, the resolution of the NMS (Network Management System) being used, the time until the device itself issues an alarm, the upper limit of the number of repetitions, and so on.
- NMS Network Management System
- the first embodiment by estimating the failure location by dividing into granularity of the inside of the facility, the upper part of the 8SP, the lower part of the 8SP, and the ONU main body, it is possible to appropriately arrange the repair team and repair materials corresponding to the failure location. . Therefore, according to Embodiment 1, it is possible to reduce DIY opportunity loss, reduce arrangement errors, and reduce on-site response time. According to Embodiment 1, repair teams and repair materials can be arranged automatically, so reception costs and lead times can be reduced, and failure repair work costs can be reduced.
- FIG. 15 is a diagram for explaining an overview of connection equipment.
- the lower part of the 8SP is divided into the distribution cables to be arranged by the access team and the drop cables to the upper part of the ONU to be arranged by the in-home breakdown team, and the breakdown arrangements are made.
- the failure location is estimated for the granularity of inside, 8SP upper part, 8SP lower part, ONU main body, and others.
- the second embodiment will be described on the premise of (A) to (C).
- A Cable testers on the market display the content of the generated alarm, but truncate the time stamp.
- B A distribution cable contains a large number of core wires (for example, about 8 to 100 cores), and a drop cable contains only one core wire.
- C When a distribution cable breaks down, alarms are issued almost simultaneously (within about 1 second) in multiple core wires included.
- FIG. 16 and 17 are diagrams showing examples of device logs.
- FIG. 16 shows that when the distribution cable is disconnected, service disconnection occurs on multiple lines almost simultaneously (within about 1 second) (within the same slot).
- FIG. 17 Also, when the drop cable was cut, only the single line in the same slot that was actually cut by the drop cable was broken (FIG. 17).
- the estimation device according to the second embodiment has the same configuration as the estimation device according to the first embodiment. Also, the estimation apparatus according to Embodiment 2 performs the same processing as the estimation apparatus according to Embodiment 1, except for part of step S13 (estimation processing) shown in FIG. Therefore, estimation processing in the second embodiment will be described.
- [Procedure of estimation processing] 18 is a diagram depicting a processing procedure of estimation processing according to Embodiment 2; FIG. Steps S221 to S225 shown in FIG. 18 perform the same processing as steps S21 to S25 shown in FIG.
- the estimating unit 12 performs faulty cable estimating processing for estimating which cable under the 8SP is the faulty location (step S226).
- the processing after step S31 of the estimation processing in the first embodiment is the same as the processing after step S221 when the service disconnection is not occurring in the entire 8SP (step S221: No).
- FIG. 19 is a flow chart showing the procedure of the faulty cable estimation process shown in FIG.
- the estimation unit 12 refers to the device logs for adjacent lines (step S231), and determines whether or not 2 to 7 lines in the same slot have simultaneous failures (step S232).
- step S232 If 2 to 7 lines in the same slot are simultaneously out of order (step S232: Yes), the estimation unit 12 estimates that the wiring table is out of order (step S233). group) (step S234).
- step S232 A case where 2 to 7 lines in the same slot do not have a simultaneous failure (step S232: No), that is, a case where only a single line fails will be described.
- the estimating unit 12 estimates that the part between the drop cable of the line in which the failure occurred and the ONU, that is, the part above the failed drop cable and the ONU is in failure (step S235). ), it is determined that the content of the arrangement is outside arrangement (in-house breakdown group) (step S236).
- the failure point is estimated with the granularity of the inside of the station, the upper part of the 8SP (from the inside to the trunk cable), the lower part of the 8SP (distribution cable), the lower part of the 8SP (drop cable to the upper part of the ONU), and the ONU itself. be able to.
- Embodiment 3 Next, Embodiment 3 will be described.
- the location of a failure is estimated using an estimation model in which correspondence relationships between past warning appearance patterns and past failure-occurring sections are learned in advance.
- FIG. 20 is a diagram showing the correspondence between alarm appearance patterns and failure locations.
- the alarm appearance pattern of the device log is a set of analyzable feature values extracted from the device log, which is time-series data.
- FIG. 21 is a diagram schematically showing an example of a configuration of a learning device according to Embodiment 3.
- FIG. FIG. 22 is a diagram explaining the flow of the learning process according to the third embodiment and the estimation process according to the third embodiment.
- the learning device 220 is realized, for example, by loading a predetermined program into a computer or the like including ROM, RAM, CPU, etc., and executing the predetermined program by the CPU.
- the learning device 220 also has a communication interface for transmitting and receiving various information to and from another device connected via a wired connection or a network.
- the learning device 220 has a learning data collection unit 221 , an estimation unit 222 , a parameter update unit 223 and an output unit repetition control unit 224 .
- the learning data collection unit 221 collects, as learning data, past device logs and fault locations associated with each appearance pattern of alarms in the device logs. As shown in FIG. 22A, the failure location is obtained from a trouble ticket showing information on repairs actually performed. Alternatively, the failure location may be estimated by performing the estimation processing in the first and second embodiments.
- the estimating unit 222 extracts an alarm appearance pattern as a feature quantity from the past device logs collected by the learning data collecting unit 221 ((1) in FIG. 22). At this time, the estimation unit 222 may cluster appearance patterns.
- the estimation unit 222 uses the estimation model 2221 to estimate in which section of the connection equipment shown in FIG.
- the estimation model 2221 is composed of, for example, a neural network (NN).
- the estimating unit 222 inputs an alarm appearance pattern extracted from past device logs to the estimating model 2221, and acquires the fault location output from the estimating model 2221 as an estimation result.
- the parameter updating unit 223 updates the parameters of the estimation model 2221 so that the failure location estimated by the estimation model 2221 approaches the failure location that actually occurred. For example, the parameter updating unit 223 updates the parameters of the estimation model 2221 so that the loss is optimized using a loss function representing the loss of the failure location estimated by the estimation model 2221 with respect to the failure location that actually occurred. do.
- the repetition control unit 224 determines whether or not a predetermined termination condition has been reached.
- the end conditions are, for example, that the parameters of the estimation model 2221 have been updated a predetermined number of times, that the loss value used for parameter updating has become equal to or less than a predetermined threshold value, or that the amount of parameter update (differentiation of the loss function value value, etc.) has become equal to or less than a predetermined threshold.
- the repetition control unit 224 returns to the estimation unit 222 and causes the estimation process to be executed again.
- the learning device 220 ends the learning process. In this way, the learning device 220 causes the estimation model 2221 to learn the correspondence relationship between past warning appearance patterns and past failure-occurring sections ((2) in FIG. 22).
- FIG. 23 is a diagram schematically illustrating an example of a configuration of an estimation device according to Embodiment 3.
- FIG. 23 is a diagram schematically illustrating an example of a configuration of an estimation device according to Embodiment 3.
- the estimating device 210 is realized, for example, by loading a predetermined program into a computer or the like including ROM, RAM, CPU, etc., and executing the predetermined program by the CPU.
- the learning device 220 also has a communication interface for transmitting and receiving various information to and from another device connected via a wired connection or a network.
- the learning device 220 has an estimator 212 instead of the estimator 12 shown in FIG.
- the estimating unit 212 extracts the alarm appearance pattern from the device log collected by the collecting unit 11 as a feature amount ((3) in FIG. 22). At this time, the estimation unit 212 may cluster appearance patterns. Using the estimation model 2221, the estimation unit 212 estimates in which section of the connection equipment shown in FIG.
- the estimation model 2221 is a model that has learned the correspondence relationship between the type of alarm appearance pattern and the failure location through the learning process by the learning device 220, and is configured by, for example, NN.
- the estimating unit 212 inputs, to the estimating model 2221, the alarm appearance pattern extracted from the device logs collected by the collecting unit 11, and acquires the fault location output from the estimating model 2221 as an estimation result.
- the estimating unit 212 estimates the failure location by dividing into the granularity of inside, 8SP upper part, 8SP lower part, ONU main body, and ONU lower part. Furthermore, the estimating unit 212 may estimate the failure location by dividing the 8SP lower part into the granularity of distribution cables and drop cables.
- FIG. 24 is a flowchart of a learning process procedure according to the third embodiment.
- the learning data collection unit 221 collects, as learning data, past device logs and fault locations associated with each occurrence pattern of alarms in the device logs (step S301). .
- the estimating unit 222 extracts an alarm appearance pattern as a feature quantity from the past device logs collected by the learning data collecting unit 221 (step S302).
- the estimating unit 222 uses the estimating model 2221 to perform an estimating process of estimating in which section of the connection equipment shown in FIG.
- the estimating unit 222 inputs, to the estimating model 2221, the alarm appearance pattern extracted from the device log collected by the learning data collecting unit 221, and acquires the fault location output from the estimating model 2221 as an estimation result.
- the parameter updating unit 223 updates the parameters of the estimation model 2221 so that the failure location estimated by the estimation model 2221 approaches the actual failure location (step S304).
- the repetition control unit 224 determines whether or not a predetermined termination condition has been reached (step S305). If the termination condition is not met, the repetition control unit 224 returns to step S303 and causes the estimation unit 222 to perform the estimation process again. When the end condition is reached, the learning device 220 outputs the parameters of the estimation model 2221 to the estimation device 210 and ends the learning process.
- FIG. 25 is a flowchart of a procedure of estimation processing according to Embodiment 3.
- FIG. 25 is a flowchart of a procedure of estimation processing according to Embodiment 3.
- Step S311 shown in FIG. 25 is the same processing as step S11 shown in FIG.
- the estimating unit 212 extracts an alarm appearance pattern as a feature amount from the device log collected by the collecting unit 11 (step S312).
- the estimating unit 222 uses the estimating model 2221 to estimate in which section of the connection equipment shown in FIG.
- the estimating unit 212 inputs, to the estimating model 2221, the alarm appearance pattern extracted from the device logs collected by the collecting unit 11, and acquires the fault location output from the estimating model 2221 as an estimation result.
- Step S314 shown in FIG. 25 is the same processing as step S13 shown in FIG.
- FIG. 26 is a diagram showing the estimation accuracy of the estimation result of the failure location by the operator and the estimation result of the failure location by the estimating device 210 according to the third embodiment. As shown in FIG. 26, it was found that the estimation accuracy of about 80% was improved to 97% by using the estimation device 210 when the operator estimated.
- the third embodiment by estimating the location of a failure using an estimation model in which the correspondence relationship between past warning appearance patterns and sections in which past failures have occurred is pre-learned, It is possible to accurately estimate in which section of the connection equipment that connects the building housing the telecommunications equipment to the user's home the failure has occurred.
- estimation model 2221 is also made to learn the details of the arrangements corresponding to the location of the failure, and by outputting the details of the arrangements together with the location of the failure, it is also possible to properly arrange the repair team and repair materials.
- Each component of the estimating devices 10, 210 and learning device 220 is functionally conceptual and does not necessarily need to be physically configured as illustrated. That is, the specific form of distribution and integration of the functions of the estimating devices 10 and 210 and the learning device 220 is not limited to the illustrated one, and all or part of them can be arbitrarily selected according to various loads and usage conditions. It can be functionally or physically distributed or integrated in units.
- each process performed in the estimation devices 10, 210 and the learning device 220 is implemented entirely or in part by a CPU, a GPU (Graphics Processing Unit), and a program that is analyzed and executed by the CPU and GPU. may be Further, each process performed in the estimation device 10, the learning device 20, and the signal processing device 100 may be implemented as hardware based on wired logic.
- FIG. 27 is a diagram showing an example of a computer that implements the estimation devices 10 and 210 and the learning device 220 by executing programs.
- the computer 1000 has a memory 1010 and a CPU 1020, for example.
- Computer 1000 also has hard disk drive interface 1030 , disk drive interface 1040 , serial port interface 1050 , video adapter 1060 and network interface 1070 . These units are connected by a bus 1080 .
- the memory 1010 includes a ROM 1011 and a RAM 1012.
- the ROM 1011 stores a boot program such as BIOS (Basic Input Output System).
- BIOS Basic Input Output System
- Hard disk drive interface 1030 is connected to hard disk drive 1090 .
- a disk drive interface 1040 is connected to the disk drive 1100 .
- a removable storage medium such as a magnetic disk or optical disk is inserted into the disk drive 1100 .
- Serial port interface 1050 is connected to mouse 1110 and keyboard 1120, for example.
- Video adapter 1060 is connected to display 1130, for example.
- the hard disk drive 1090 stores, for example, an OS (Operating System) 1091, application programs 1092, program modules 1093, and program data 1094. That is, a program that defines each process of the estimating devices 10 and 210 and the learning device 220 is implemented as a program module 1093 in which code executable by the computer 1000 is described.
- Program modules 1093 are stored, for example, on hard disk drive 1090 .
- the hard disk drive 1090 stores a program module 1093 for executing processing similar to the functional configurations of the estimation devices 10 and 210 and the learning device 220 .
- the hard disk drive 1090 may be replaced by an SSD (Solid State Drive).
- the setting data used in the processing of the above-described embodiment is stored as program data 1094 in the memory 1010 or the hard disk drive 1090, for example. Then, the CPU 1020 reads out the program module 1093 and the program data 1094 stored in the memory 1010 and the hard disk drive 1090 to the RAM 1012 as necessary and executes them.
- the program modules 1093 and program data 1094 are not limited to being stored in the hard disk drive 1090, but may be stored in a removable storage medium, for example, and read by the CPU 1020 via the disk drive 1100 or the like. Alternatively, the program modules 1093 and program data 1094 may be stored in another computer connected via a network (LAN (Local Area Network), WAN (Wide Area Network), etc.). Program modules 1093 and program data 1094 may then be read by CPU 1020 through network interface 1070 from other computers.
- LAN Local Area Network
- WAN Wide Area Network
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Abstract
Description
本実施の形態では、ネットワークマネジメントシステムなどに収集される装置ログを基に、光回線通信事業者側収容ビルからユーザ宅内のONUまでを接続する接続設備のいずれの区間で故障が発生しているかを推定する。
まず、光回線通信事業者側収容ビルからユーザ宅内のONUまでを接続する接続設備について説明する。図1及び図2は、接続設備の概要を説明する図である。
次に、電気通信設備が収容される建物からユーザ宅までを接続する接続設備のいずれの区間で故障が発生しているかを推定する推定装置について説明する。図4は、実施の形態1に係る推定装置の構成の一例を模式的に示す図である。
図6は、実施の形態1に係る推定装置10が実行する処理の処理手順を示すフローチャートである。
次に、図6に示す推定処理(ステップS13)の処理手順について説明する。図7、図9、図11、図13は、図6に示す推定処理の処理手順を示すフローチャートである。
従来、オペレータが通信の不具合を受け付け、問診、試験による、修理やDIYの手配をしていた。この場合、受け付けにリードタイムがかかる反面、手配の判定精度が低いという問題があった。
次に、実施の形態2について説明する。図15は、接続設備の概要を説明する図である。図15に示すように、8SP下部に対しては、アクセス班が手配対象となる配線ケーブルと、宅内故障班が手配対象となるドロップケーブル~ONU上部とに分けて、故障手配を行う。実施の形態1では、装置ログの警報履歴の内容をもとに、所内、8SP上部、8SP下部、ONU本体、それ以外の粒度で故障個所を推定した。実施の形態2では、8SP下部について、配線ケーブルが故障しているか、ドロップケーブルが故障しているかを推定可能とする。
(A)市販されているケーブル試験機は発生している警報の内容を表示するもののタイムスタンプを切り捨てている。
(B)配線ケーブルには多数(例えば8~100芯程度)の芯線が含まれており、ドロップケーブルには1の芯線のみが含まれている。
(C)配線ケーブルが故障した際、含まれている芯線の複数でほぼ同時(1秒前後の時間内)に警報が発生する。
図18は、実施の形態2における推定処理の処理手順を示す図である。図18に示すステップS221~S225は、図7に示すステップS21~S25と同じ処理を行う。推定部12は、8SP下部のいずれのケーブルが故障個所であるか推定する故障ケーブル推定処理を行う(ステップS226)。なお、8SP全体でサービス切断が発生中でない場合(ステップS221:No)以降の処理は、実施の形態1における推定処理のステップS31以降と同じ処理である。
図18に示す故障ケーブル推定処理(ステップS226)について説明する。図19は、図18に示す故障ケーブル推定処理の処理手順を示すフローチャートである。
このように、実施の形態2によれば、所内、8SP上部(所内~幹線ケーブル)、8SP下部(配線ケーブル)、8SP下部(ドロップケーブル~ONU上部)、ONU本体の粒度で故障個所を推定することができる。
次に、実施の形態3について説明する。実施の形態3では、過去の警報の出現パターンと、過去の故障が発生している区間との対応関係を予め学習させた推定モデルを用いて、故障個所を推定する。
まず、推定モデルの学習を実行する学習装置について説明する。図21は、実施の形態3に係る学習装置の構成の一例を模式的に示す図である。図22は、実施の形態3に係る学習処理及び実施の形態3に係る推定処理の流れを説明する図である。
次に、実施の形態3に係る推定装置について説明する。図23は、実施の形態3に係る推定装置の構成の一例を模式的に示す図である。
次に、学習装置220が実行する学習処理について説明する。図24は、実施の形態3に係る学習処理の処理手順を示すフローチャートである。
次に、推定装置210が実行する学習処理について説明する。図25は、実施の形態3に係る推定処理の処理手順を示すフローチャートである。
図26は、オペレータによる故障個所の推定結果と、実施の形態3に係る推定装置210による故障個所の推定結果との推定精度を示す図である。図26のように、オペレータが推定した場合には80%程度の推定精度が、推定装置210を用いることによって、97%まで向上したことが分かった。
推定装置10,210、及び学習装置220の各構成要素は機能概念的なものであり、必ずしも物理的に図示のように構成されていることを要しない。すなわち、推定装置10,210、及び学習装置220の機能の分散及び統合の具体的形態は図示のものに限られず、その全部または一部を、各種の負荷や使用状況などに応じて、任意の単位で機能的または物理的に分散または統合して構成することができる。
図27は、プログラムが実行されることにより、推定装置10,210、及び学習装置220が実現されるコンピュータの一例を示す図である。コンピュータ1000は、例えば、メモリ1010、CPU1020を有する。また、コンピュータ1000は、ハードディスクドライブインタフェース1030、ディスクドライブインタフェース1040、シリアルポートインタフェース1050、ビデオアダプタ1060、ネットワークインタフェース1070を有する。これらの各部は、バス1080によって接続される。
11 収集部
12,212,222 推定部
13 出力部
221 学習データ収集部
2221 推定モデル
223 パラメータ更新部
224 繰り返し制御部
Claims (8)
- 電気通信設備が収容される建物から、個別のユーザの宅内に配置される終端装置までを接続する接続設備であって、第一の分岐設備によって分岐された複数の第一の芯線を含むケーブルと、前記第一の芯線を複数の第二の芯線に分岐する第二の分岐設備と、前記第二の芯線を前記終端装置まで接続する設備とを有する接続設備を構成する機器が正常ではない状態になった際に発出する警報を収集する収集部と、
収集された警報の種類と警報が発生している設備とに基づき、前記接続設備のいずれの区間で故障が発生しているかを推定する推定部と、
を有することを特徴とする推定装置。 - 前記収集部は、警報の履歴を示すログを収集し、
前記推定部は、前記ログの警報の履歴を基に、前記故障が発生している区間が、前記電気通信設備が収容される建物内、前記複数の第一の芯線を含むケーブル、前記第二の分岐設備から第二の芯線を前記終端装置まで接続する設備、及び、前記終端装置の本体のいずれであるかを推定することを特徴とする請求項1に記載の推定装置。 - 前記推定部は、前記ログの警報の履歴を基に、前記第一の分岐設備における劣化またはサービス切断の有無、前記第二の分岐設備における劣化またはサービス切断の有無、または、前記終端装置の電源切断の有無、を判定し、各判定の判定結果に応じて、前記故障が発生している区間が、前記電気通信設備が収容される建物内、前記複数の第一の芯線を含むケーブル、前記第二の分岐設備から第二の芯線を前記終端装置まで接続する設備、及び、前記終端装置の本体のいずれであるかを推定することを特徴とする請求項2に記載の推定装置。
- 前記推定部は、前記ログの警報の履歴を基に、推定対象の前記終端装置に対応するポートから発せられるべきログの出力の有無に応じて、前記終端装置より下部における支障の可能性の有無を推定することを特徴とする請求項2または3に記載の推定装置。
- 前記推定部は、前記故障が発生している区間が、前記第二の芯線を前記終端装置まで接続する設備であると推定した場合、前記ログの警報の履歴を基に、前記複数の第二の芯線のそれぞれに対応するログの同スロットのうち、二以上の前記第二の芯線でのサービスの切断がある場合には、故障が発生している区間が、前記第二の分岐設備からユーザ配線点までの配線ケーブルであると推定し、一つの前記第二の芯線においてのみサービスの切断がある場合には、故障が発生している区間が、前記ユーザ配線点からのドロップケーブルのうち、前記一つの第二の芯線に対応するドロップケーブルから前記終端装置までの間であると推定することを特徴とする請求項2~4のいずれか一つに記載の推定装置。
- 前記推定部は、過去の警報の出現パターンと、過去の前記故障が発生している区間との対応関係を学習させた推定モデルを用いて、前記接続設備のいずれの区間で故障が発生しているかを推定することを特徴とする請求項1に記載の推定装置。
- 推定装置が実行する推定方法であって、
電気通信設備が収容される建物から、個別のユーザの宅内に配置される終端装置までを接続する接続設備であって、第一の分岐設備によって分岐された複数の第一の芯線を含むケーブルと、第一の芯線を複数の第二の芯線に分岐する第二の分岐設備と、前記第二の芯線を前記終端装置まで接続する設備とを有する接続設備を構成する機器が正常ではない状態になった際に発出する警報を収集する工程と、
収集された警報の種類と警報が発生している設備とに基づき、前記接続設備のいずれの区間で故障が発生しているかを推定する工程と、
を含んだことを特徴とする推定方法。 - 電気通信設備が収容される建物から、個別のユーザの宅内に配置される終端装置までを接続する接続設備であって、第一の分岐設備によって分岐された複数の第一の芯線を含むケーブルと、第一の芯線を複数の第二の芯線に分岐する第二の分岐設備と、前記第二の芯線を前記終端装置まで接続する設備とを有する接続設備を構成する機器が正常ではない状態になった際に発出する警報を収集するステップと、
収集された警報の種類と警報が発生している設備とに基づき、前記接続設備のいずれの区間で故障が発生しているかを推定するステップと、
をコンピュータに実行させるための推定プログラム。
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JP2007166446A (ja) * | 2005-12-16 | 2007-06-28 | Sumitomo Electric Ind Ltd | Ponシステム及びその異常判定方法並びに局側装置 |
WO2013125002A1 (ja) * | 2012-02-23 | 2013-08-29 | 三菱電機株式会社 | ネットワークシステム及びトポロジーマップ生成方法 |
JP2015201817A (ja) * | 2014-04-10 | 2015-11-12 | 西日本電信電話株式会社 | 故障切り分けシステム、光加入者線終端装置、及び光増幅器 |
JP2020162014A (ja) * | 2019-03-27 | 2020-10-01 | 東日本電信電話株式会社 | 発光装置、及び発光方法 |
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JP2007166446A (ja) * | 2005-12-16 | 2007-06-28 | Sumitomo Electric Ind Ltd | Ponシステム及びその異常判定方法並びに局側装置 |
WO2013125002A1 (ja) * | 2012-02-23 | 2013-08-29 | 三菱電機株式会社 | ネットワークシステム及びトポロジーマップ生成方法 |
JP2015201817A (ja) * | 2014-04-10 | 2015-11-12 | 西日本電信電話株式会社 | 故障切り分けシステム、光加入者線終端装置、及び光増幅器 |
JP2020162014A (ja) * | 2019-03-27 | 2020-10-01 | 東日本電信電話株式会社 | 発光装置、及び発光方法 |
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