WO2020019780A1

WO2020019780A1 - Event prediction method and apparatus, and electronic device

Info

Publication number: WO2020019780A1
Application number: PCT/CN2019/084089
Authority: WO
Inventors: 邵佳翼; 陆旭明
Original assignee: 阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司
Priority date: 2018-07-27
Filing date: 2019-04-24
Publication date: 2020-01-30
Also published as: TWI706341B; CN109146147A; TW202008230A

Abstract

Provided are an event prediction method and apparatus, and an electronic device, which are applied to a blockchain node. The method comprises: acquiring a prediction result input by a participant for a specified event and released on a blockchain, wherein the input moment of the prediction result is earlier than the occurrence moment of an actual result of the specified event; releasing a corresponding comparison result to the blockchain by comparing the prediction result with the actual result; and invoking a smart contract for asset allocation in the blockchain, wherein the smart contract is used for reading the comparison result so as to allocate a first smart asset credential to the participant according to the comparison result.

Description

Event prediction method and device, and electronic equipment

Technical field

One or more embodiments of the present specification relate to the field of blockchain technology, and in particular, to an event prediction method and device, and an electronic device.

Background technique

For an unfinished event, it is often necessary to wait for the event to complete before accurately knowing the result of the event. However, in some scenarios, it is desirable to know the result of the event in advance, for example, to take measures in advance based on the result of the event, and then determine whether to adjust the processing plan of the associated event based on the result of the event.

In related technologies, event prediction can be performed in a variety of ways, such as predictive analysis based on historical data, and then predictive analysis based on a prediction model trained on samples. Due to the differences in the prediction data used, the prediction method used, and the prediction environment, the different participants often get different prediction results when they participate in the prediction of the results for the same event, even with large deviations. .

Summary of the Invention

In view of this, one or more embodiments of the present specification provide an event prediction method and device, and an electronic device.

To achieve the above purpose, one or more embodiments of the present specification provide technical solutions as follows:

According to a first aspect of one or more embodiments of the present specification, an event prediction method is proposed, which is applied to a blockchain node; the method includes:

Obtaining a prediction result input by a participant for a specified event published on the blockchain, where the input time of the prediction result is earlier than the occurrence time of the actual result of the specified event;

By comparing the prediction result with the actual result, publishing a corresponding comparison result to the blockchain;

A smart contract for asset allocation in the blockchain is called, and the smart contract is used to read the comparison result to allocate a first smart asset credential to the participant according to the comparison result.

According to a second aspect of one or more embodiments of the present specification, an event prediction device is proposed, which is applied to a blockchain node; the device includes:

An obtaining unit, which obtains a prediction result input by a participant for a specified event published on the blockchain, and an input time of the prediction result is earlier than an occurrence time of an actual result of the specified event;

A comparison unit, by comparing the predicted result with the actual result, publishing a corresponding comparison result to the blockchain;

An invoking unit for invoking a smart contract for asset allocation in the blockchain, the smart contract being used to read the comparison result to allocate a first smart asset credential to the participant according to the comparison result .

According to a third aspect of one or more embodiments of the present specification, an electronic device is provided, including:

processor;

Memory for storing processor-executable instructions;

The processor executes the executable instruction to implement the event prediction method according to any one of the foregoing embodiments.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 is a flowchart of an event prediction method according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of predicting an event result according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 3 is a flowchart of a function logic for performing prediction on an event according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 4 is a flowchart of another function logic for performing prediction on an event according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of a device according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 6 is a block diagram of an event prediction apparatus according to an exemplary embodiment.

detailed description

Exemplary embodiments will be described in detail herein, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings. When the following description refers to the accompanying drawings, the same numbers in different drawings represent the same or similar elements unless otherwise indicated. The implementations described in the following exemplary embodiments do not represent all implementations consistent with one or more embodiments of the present specification. Rather, they are merely examples of devices and methods consistent with some aspects of one or more embodiments of the specification, as detailed in the appended claims.

It should be noted that, in other embodiments, the steps of the corresponding method are not necessarily performed in the order shown and described in this specification. In some other embodiments, the method may include more or fewer steps than described in this specification. In addition, a single step described in this specification may be divided into multiple steps for description in other embodiments; and multiple steps described in this specification may be combined into a single step for other embodiments. description.

FIG. 1 is a flowchart of an event prediction method according to an exemplary embodiment. As shown in Figure 1, the method is applied to a blockchain node and can include the following steps:

Step 102: Obtain a prediction result input by a participant for a specified event published on the blockchain, and an input time of the prediction result is earlier than an occurrence time of an actual result of the specified event.

In one embodiment, by creating a transaction on the blockchain client, the transaction can be used to publish the prediction results entered by the participants on the blockchain, becoming one of the distributed databases in the blockchain. Data.

It should be noted that: transactions in the blockchain are divided into narrow transactions and broad transactions. A narrow transaction refers to a value transfer issued by a user to the blockchain; for example, in a traditional Bitcoin blockchain network, a transaction can be a transfer initiated by a user in the blockchain. The generalized transaction refers to a piece of business data with business intent issued by the user to the blockchain; for example, the operator can build an alliance chain based on actual business needs, and rely on the alliance chain to deploy other types that are not related to value transfer. Online business (such as event forecasting, renting business, vehicle dispatching business, insurance claims business, credit service, medical service, etc.), and in this type of alliance chain, the transaction can be a transaction issued by the user in the alliance chain. Intent business message or business request. Transactions in this description should be interpreted as transactions in a broad sense.

In one embodiment, because the blockchain uses a distributed database, the prediction results published on the blockchain cannot be tampered with, and the prediction results can be ensured to be true and reliable.

In one embodiment, the prediction result input by the participant can be published to the blockchain by the aforementioned blockchain node. In another embodiment, the prediction result input by the participant may be published to the blockchain by other blockchain nodes different from the above-mentioned blockchain node, and the above-mentioned blockchain node may obtain information related to the prediction result, and The prediction result (or a hash value of the prediction result) can be recorded in a local database (ie, a blockchain ledger) maintained by the blockchain node.

In one embodiment, one or more participants can predict the same event, so that there can be prediction results corresponding to each participant on the blockchain; wherein each participant can have a corresponding unique identifier, such that The prediction results released by each participant can be associated with its unique identification, so as to effectively distinguish the various prediction results released on the blockchain.

In an embodiment, the designated event is any event that is indicated to be determined to require result prediction, such as traffic conditions at an intersection, rice harvest in a certain area, typhoon formation time in a certain sea area, etc., which is not described in this specification. limit.

In an embodiment, the input time of the prediction result should be earlier than the occurrence time of the actual result of the specified event. The input time can be recorded in the transaction that contains the prediction result in the blockchain, or the transaction can be created directly. The time is used as the input time. In one case, when the specified event is an instantaneous event, that is, the time period from the start time to the end time of the specified event is short, which is not enough for the participant to input the prediction result within the time period, and the participant The predicted result can be entered at any time before the actual result occurs. In another case, when the specified event is a non-transient event, that is, the participant can input the prediction result in a time period between the start time and the end time of the specified event, which can limit the participant in the specified event. Enter the prediction result after the start time of.

Step 104: Publish a corresponding comparison result to the blockchain by comparing the prediction result with the actual result.

In one embodiment, the above-mentioned blockchain node compares the prediction result with the actual result, and the comparison result can be published on the blockchain after consensus. Because the predicted results input by the participants and the actual results of the specified event are recorded on the blockchain, any blockchain node can verify the above comparison results to determine the validity of the comparison results.

In an embodiment, the comparison result includes a matching situation between the predicted result and the actual result, such as complete agreement, partial agreement, and complete inconsistency.

In step 106, a smart contract for asset allocation in the blockchain is called, and the smart contract is used to read the comparison result to allocate the first smart asset credential to the participant according to the comparison result. .

In one embodiment, the smart contract may pre-write processing logic for allocating smart asset credentials based on the comparison result, so that the smart contract may automatically determine whether the first smart asset credentials need to be allocated to the corresponding participants based on the comparison results; Among them, because the processing logic on the smart contract is public content, and the entire processing process is automatically completed by the smart contract, there is no manual intervention, so that the distribution of smart asset credentials can ensure objectivity and fairness.

In one embodiment, when the prediction result matches the actual result, it indicates that the participant providing the prediction result has a certain accuracy for the result prediction of the specified event. Then, by allocating the first smart asset voucher to the participants, the amount of smart asset vouchers held by each participant can be controlled, thereby achieving a marking effect for each participant to a certain extent: the more participants hold smart asset credentials The stronger the ability to predict the outcome of an event, therefore, in the subsequent event prediction process, it is possible to quickly select the participants with strong predictive ability to obtain potentially more accurate prediction results from these participants.

In one embodiment, the smart asset voucher is used to characterize certain rights and interests, so as to realize the incentive for the participant to accurately predict the specified event, which helps the participant to continue to participate in the prediction of subsequent events, thereby achieving a virtuous circle. For example, when a participant implements a preset operation on the blockchain, for example, the preset operation can include publishing transactions, initiating consensus (such as initiating based on the PBFT practical Byzantine fault tolerance algorithm), etc., and can allocate a certain amount to each blockchain node. Intelligent asset voucher to facilitate the preset operation to complete smoothly as soon as possible. For another example, participants can use the blockchain nodes that play the anchor role on the blockchain to exchange the smart asset certificates they hold for equivalent off-chain equity certificates, such as membership points in the membership system, Coupons, etc. on trading platforms are not limited in this manual.

In an embodiment, the above-mentioned smart contract may be called under the driving of a transaction or another smart contract to trigger it to read the above-mentioned prediction result and actual result from the blockchain, thereby further implementing the events of this specification. Forecast scenario. In one case, the actual result of the specified event can be published by the Oracle node in the blockchain to the blockchain. Since the data provided by the Oracle node is considered absolutely reliable, it can be guaranteed The accuracy of this actual result. In another case, the actual result of the designated event may be published by any blockchain node in the blockchain to the blockchain after consensus. For example, any blockchain node may A consensus is initiated in the blockchain to confirm the actual results provided by any one of the blockchain nodes. When the actual result passes the consensus of each blockchain node, it shows that the actual result has sufficient accuracy and can be verified by It should be used for comparison with predicted results.

In an embodiment, the specified event includes one or more sub-events, and the prediction result is used to perform result prediction on the one or more sub-events; wherein the smart contract is used to predict When the result predictions of the one or more sub-events are all correct, the first smart asset credential is allocated to the participant. In other words, when the prediction result is completely correct for the result of the specified event, the prediction result is determined by the smart contract to match the actual result of the specified event.

In an embodiment, the designated event includes multiple sub-events; when the first smart asset certificate is allocated to the participant, the size of the equity represented by the first smart asset certificate is positively related to the The proportion of the child events accurately predicted by the prediction result among the multiple child events. For example, when the prediction result is exactly the same as the actual result, that is, the proportion of the sub-events accurately predicted by the prediction result in the multiple sub-events is 100%, the size of the equity represented by the first smart asset certificate may be Set the maximum value; when the prediction result is completely different from the actual result, that is, the proportion of the sub-events accurately predicted by the prediction result in the multiple sub-events is 0%, the equity represented by the first smart asset certificate The size can be a preset minimum value (0 or another preset value).

In one embodiment, the size of the equity represented by the first smart asset certificate can be linearly changed. For example, when the proportion is 30%, the equity is 30% of the preset maximum value. For example, when the proportion is 80%, the equity The size is 80% of the preset maximum, etc. In another embodiment, the size of the equity represented by the first smart asset certificate can be changed non-linearly, for example, when the proportion is 30%, the equity is 10% of the preset maximum value, and for example, when the proportion is 80% , The equity size is 50% of the preset maximum value, for example, when the proportion is 95%, the equity size is 80% of the preset maximum value.

In an embodiment, the specified event includes multiple sub-events. When the prediction result is not completely consistent with the actual result, regardless of the proportion of the sub-events accurately predicted by the prediction result among the multiple sub-events, It may be determined that the two do not match, so that the first smart asset certificate is not allocated to the participant.

In an embodiment, it may be determined that the second smart asset voucher held by the participant is frozen as a voucher for guaranteeing the validity of the predicted result; wherein the smart contract is used for If the prediction result does not match the actual result, the holding relationship of the participant to the guarantee certificate is released. By freezing the second smart asset certificate held by the participant as a guarantee certificate, the guarantee certificate is used to guarantee the forecast results provided by the participant, which can set a certain threshold for the participant to avoid random participation and affect the Accurate prediction of the above specified events.

In an embodiment, when the equity represented by the security voucher is greater, it indicates that the participant is more confident in the prediction result provided by himself. Then, when the prediction result matches the actual result, it indicates to a certain extent that the participant does have a very strong Therefore, by setting the size of the equity represented by the first smart asset voucher to be positively correlated with the size of the equity represented by the second smart asset voucher, the prediction capabilities of the corresponding participants can be more accurately Place markers, and greater incentives for corresponding parties.

In one embodiment, even if the participant does not freeze to form the guarantee certificate, he can still participate in the prediction of the result of the specified event, and obtain the above-mentioned first smart asset certificate if the predicted result matches the actual result. In another embodiment, when the participant does not freeze to form the guarantee voucher, the prediction result entered by the participant is determined to be invalid, so that it cannot really participate in the prediction of the result of the specified event; or, between the predicted result and the actual result In the case of matching, although the first smart asset voucher can be assigned to the participant, the first smart asset voucher cannot represent any equity equivalent to no smart asset voucher being allocated, making the participation of the party meaningless.

FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of predicting an event result according to an exemplary embodiment. As shown in FIG. 2, it is assumed that the user A wishes to participate in the prediction of the result for the event B, and the user A can input the prediction result through the mobile phone 21 with the client installed. The prediction result can be obtained by user A in any way, for example, by user A performing big data analysis on historical data through a server not shown in FIG. 2, or for example, by user A based on his own experience, which is not described in this specification. Limitation.

The device 22 is configured as a blockchain node in the blockchain, and the device 22 can receive the prediction result sent by the mobile phone 21; based on the logged-in account on the client running the mobile phone 21, the prediction result can be determined as coming from the user A. Of course, the mobile phone 21 may also send the above prediction results to other blockchain nodes in the blockchain. The processing process of these blockchain nodes is similar to that of the device 22, and reference may be made to the description of the device 22 in this specification. And other users can also predict the result of Event B and send it to device 22 or other blockchain nodes through their mobile phones or other electronic devices. The processing process of these users is similar to that of User A. You can refer to this manual for details. A description of user A.

The device 22 can agree on the prediction result input by the user A in the blockchain, so that the prediction result is released to the blockchain after passing the consensus to be recorded in the blockchain's distributed database, that is, "on-chain" . This specification does not limit the type of consensus algorithm used; for example, when the block chain where the device 22 is located is an alliance chain or a public chain, the device 22 can be based on algorithms such as PBFT (Practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance). Other blockchain nodes initiate consensus, and after the consensus is passed, the prediction result is published to the blockchain, so that it is recorded in the blockchain's distributed database; for another example, when the blockchain where device 22 is located is In the public chain, the device 22 can compete with other blockchain nodes for bookkeeping rights based on the POW (Proof of Work, Proof of Work) algorithm, POS (Proof of Stake, Proof of Stake) algorithm, or other algorithms, and obtain the bookkeeping by The right blockchain node records transaction data into the corresponding block, and when the transaction containing the prediction result input by user A is recorded, the prediction result can be recorded in the blockchain's distributed database.

The blockchain can include a predictor node 23, which can obtain data off-chain (that is, outside the blockchain) and transfer the data off-chain into the blockchain. For example, the oracle node 23 can obtain the actual result of event B from the off-chain, and publish the actual result to the blockchain for recording in the blockchain's distributed database, that is, "on-chain".

In the process of implementing event prediction, it actually contains two functional logics: the first is the functional logic 1 for determining the comparison result between the predicted result and the actual result, and the second is the functional logic for assigning smart asset credentials based on the comparison result 2.

For the above-mentioned functional logic 1, the device 22 can read the prediction result input by the user A and the actual result of the event B passed by the oracle node 23 from the blockchain, and compare the prediction result with the actual result to obtain Corresponding comparison results. The device 22 can publish the comparison result to the blockchain, so that the comparison result can be recorded in the distributed database of the blockchain after consensus. Since the prediction results and actual results are all published to the blockchain, any blockchain node can confirm the comparison results issued by the device 22 by querying the prediction results and actual results to ensure that the comparison results are true and valid.

For the above-mentioned functional logic 2, a smart contract can be created on the blockchain in advance, and the above-mentioned functional logic 2 is defined in the smart contract, so that the smart contract can be automatically allocated to user A according to the comparison result issued by the device 22 after being called. Smart asset vouchers, and in the process can avoid human intervention, ensure accuracy and effectiveness, and make comparison results objective and accurate.

In one embodiment, the smart contract can be called by a transaction on the blockchain or other smart contracts to trigger it to automatically implement related functional logic. The device 22 may issue a transaction in the blockchain or call other smart contracts to implement the above-mentioned smart contract; or, it may call the above-mentioned smart contract by other blockchain nodes, and this specification does not limit this. After being called, the above-mentioned smart contract can be run on the device 22 to automatically implement the above-mentioned functional logic.

In order to facilitate understanding, the functional logic mentioned in the embodiment shown in FIG. 2 will be described in detail below with reference to FIGS. 3 and 4.

FIG. 3 is a flowchart of a function logic for performing prediction on an event according to an exemplary embodiment. As shown in FIG. 3, steps 302 to 306 correspond to the above-mentioned functional logic 1. The functional logic 1 may be implemented by the device 22 as a blockchain node, and steps 308A to 310C correspond to the aforementioned functional logic 2. The functional logic 2 may be Called smart contract implementation; where:

Step 302: Obtain the prediction result of user A from the blockchain.

In one embodiment, the prediction result of user A is recorded in a transaction on the blockchain. The transaction can be marked as related to event B, so that the device 22 can find the transaction from the blockchain accordingly. And obtain the prediction result of user A. For example, the device 22 may obtain the prediction result input by the user A by scanning a transaction record of a specific address or a transaction record of a specific serial number.

In one embodiment, the prediction results input by other users are also recorded on the blockchain. The device 22 can obtain these prediction results in a similar manner, which will not be described in detail here.

Step 304: Obtain actual results from the blockchain.

In an embodiment, the actual result passed in by the oracle node 23 is recorded in a transaction on the blockchain, and the transaction can be marked as related to event B, so that the device 22 can be retrieved from the blockchain accordingly. Find the transaction and get the actual result. For example, the device 22 may obtain the actual result by scanning a transaction record of a specific address or a transaction record of a specific serial number.

Step 306: Compare the prediction result of the user A with the actual result of the event B, and generate a corresponding comparison result.

In an embodiment, it is assumed that event B is the only event and does not include multiple sub-events, so that there are only two cases of the predicted result and the actual result: the result is consistent or the result is not consistent. The predicted results should have the same data structure as the actual results to facilitate comparison operations. For example, suppose event B is the traffic condition of a certain intersection during the rush hour. The predicted result and the actual result can include a field m. When the field m = 0, it means congestion, and when the field m = 1, it means no congestion. .

In step 308A, when the prediction result is consistent with the actual result, it is determined whether a guarantee certificate exists for the user A.

In step 310A, when there is a security certificate, the smart asset certificate S1 is allocated to the user A.

In step 310B, when there is no guarantee certificate, the smart asset certificate S2 is allocated to the user A.

In an embodiment, the user A may configure a corresponding guarantee credential on the prediction result input by the user A, so as to guarantee the validity of the prediction result. For example, user A may have a corresponding account a in the blockchain and hold a certain amount of smart asset vouchers through the account a. At least a part of the smart asset vouchers in the account a may be frozen to serve as the aforementioned guarantee. Vouchers; for example, the account a can temporarily transfer at least a part of the smart asset voucher to a dedicated voucher freezing account, or can add a frozen flag to the at least a part of the smart asset voucher in the account a, which is not described in this specification Limitation. In this embodiment, the guarantee certificate is not necessary: if there is a guarantee certificate, the smart asset certificate S1 can be assigned to the user A, and if there is no guarantee certificate, the smart asset certificate S2 can be assigned to the user A; The tokenized interest should be greater than the tokenized interest in the smart asset voucher S2 to indicate that user A provides incentives for guarantee vouchers and that user A holds more smart asset vouchers, thereby indicating that the user A's forecasting ability is stronger or more predictable. Increased accuracy. Among them, the equity represented by the smart asset vouchers S1 and S2 can be fixed values, or the equity represented by the smart asset vouchers S1 and S2 can be positively correlated with the equity represented by the security vouchers, that is, the greater the equity represented by the security vouchers The more and more equity represented by the smart asset vouchers S1 and S2, the greater / more.

In an embodiment, in order to prevent user A from publishing the prediction result of event B at random and ensuring that the prediction result is meaningful, a certain threshold may be set for participating user B's result prediction, such as requiring user A to provide a guarantee certificate. Therefore, for the case where there is a guarantee certificate, the smart asset certificate S1 can be assigned to the user A, and the smart asset certificate S1 is used to characterize a certain interest; and when the guarantee certificate does not exist, the smart asset certificate S2 assigned to the user A Failure to characterize any equity is equivalent to not assigning any smart asset credentials, so user A's participation will be meaningless.

In step 308B, when the prediction result is inconsistent with the actual result, it is determined whether a guarantee certificate exists for the user A.

Step 310C: When a security certificate exists, the security certificate is deducted.

In an embodiment, when the prediction result is inconsistent with the actual result, that is, the prediction of the result of the event B by the user A is inaccurate or the prediction fails, the user A may terminate the holding of the smart asset certificate corresponding to the guarantee certificate by deducting the guarantee certificate. Then the smart asset credentials held by user A decrease to indicate that the prediction ability of user A is weakened or the prediction accuracy is reduced.

FIG. 4 is a flowchart of another function logic for performing prediction on an event according to an exemplary embodiment. As shown in FIG. 4, steps 402 to 406 correspond to the above-mentioned functional logic 1. The functional logic 1 can be implemented by the device 22 as a blockchain node, and steps 408A to 410D correspond to the aforementioned functional logic 2. The functional logic 2 can be Called smart contract implementation; where:

Step 402: Obtain the prediction result of user A from the blockchain.

Step 404: Obtain actual results from the blockchain.

In an embodiment, steps 402 to 404 may refer to steps 302 to 304 shown in FIG. 3, and details are not described herein again.

Step 406: Compare the prediction result of the user A with the actual result of the event B, and generate a corresponding comparison result.

In an embodiment, it is assumed that the event B includes multiple sub-events. If the prediction result of the user A accurately predicts all the sub-events, the prediction result is completely consistent with the actual result; and if the user A only accurately predicts part of the sub-events Result, or user A has only implemented predictions for some sub-events, then the prediction results may be partially consistent with the actual results; of course, it is possible that user A's predictions for all sub-events are incorrect, and the prediction results and the actual results are completely Not consistent.

In an embodiment, the predicted result and the actual result should have the same data structure, so as to facilitate the comparison operation. For example, suppose event B is the traffic condition of an intersection during the commute rush hour. The predicted results and actual results can include the fields m1 and m2 respectively. The m1 field represents the traffic conditions during the morning rush hour and m2 represents the traffic conditions during the evening rush hour , When the field m1 = 0 indicates congestion during the morning peak, when the field m1 = 1 indicates no congestion during the morning peak, when the field m2 = 0 indicates congestion during the late peak, and when the field m2 = 1, it indicates late No congestion during peak hours.

In step 408A, when the prediction result is completely consistent with the actual result, it is determined whether the user A has a guarantee certificate.

In step 410A, when there is a security certificate, the smart asset certificate S1 is allocated to the user A.

Step 410B, when there is no guarantee certificate, the smart asset certificate S2 is allocated to the user A.

In an embodiment, step 408A, step 410A, and step 410B may refer to step 308A, step 310A, and step 310B shown in FIG. 3, and details are not described herein again.

Step 408B, when the predicted result is completely inconsistent with the actual result, if there is a guarantee certificate, the guarantee certificate is deducted.

In an embodiment, similar to the embodiment shown in FIG. 3, the user A may configure a corresponding guarantee credential for the prediction result input by the user A to guarantee the validity of the prediction result. Then, when the prediction result is completely inconsistent with the actual result, that is, User A's prediction of the result of Event B is inaccurate or the prediction fails, user A can deduct the security certificate by holding the security asset certificate corresponding to the security certificate, then User A The number of smart asset credentials held is reduced to indicate that the prediction ability of the user A is weakened or the prediction accuracy is reduced.

In step 408C, when the prediction result is consistent with the actual result, it is determined whether a guarantee certificate exists for the user A.

In step 410C, when there is a security certificate, the smart asset certificate S3 is allocated to the user A.

Step 410D, when there is no guarantee certificate, the smart asset certificate S4 is allocated to the user A.

In an embodiment, similar to steps 410A-410B, when the prediction result is consistent with the actual result, it indicates that the user A has a certain degree of prediction ability. Therefore, for the labeling of this part of the prediction ability, and for the user A Incentives can be assigned to certain smart asset credentials to user A. In this embodiment, the guarantee certificate is not necessary: if there is a guarantee certificate, the smart asset certificate S3 can be assigned to the user A, and if there is no guarantee certificate, the smart asset certificate S4 can be assigned to the user A; In terms of size: S1> S3> S4, S1> S2> S4.

In an embodiment, the rights and interests represented by the smart asset vouchers S1 and S3 may be corresponding fixed values, or the rights and interests represented by the smart asset vouchers S1 and S3 may be respectively positively related to the rights and interests represented by the security vouchers, that is, guarantees. The greater / more equity represented by the voucher, the greater / more equity represented by the smart asset voucher S1, S3.

In an embodiment, in order to prevent user A from publishing the prediction result of event B at random and ensuring that the prediction result is meaningful, a certain threshold may be set for participating user B's result prediction, such as requiring user A to provide a guarantee certificate. Therefore, for the case where there is a guarantee certificate, the smart asset certificate S3 can be allocated to the user A, and the smart asset certificate S3 is used to represent a certain interest; and when the guarantee certificate does not exist, the smart asset certificate S4 allocated to the user A Failure to characterize any equity is equivalent to not assigning any smart asset credentials, so user A's participation will be meaningless.

In an embodiment, since the user A can only be assigned to the corresponding smart asset voucher if the predicted result matches the actual result, the smart asset voucher held by user A can be used to characterize its predictive ability or Prediction accuracy, that is, when more smart asset vouchers are held or the represented equity is greater, it indicates that the user A has a stronger prediction ability or a higher prediction accuracy.

Among them, user A can also use smart asset credentials for other purposes. For example, some blockchain nodes in the blockchain can play the role of anchor points, and the smart asset certificate held by user A can be exchanged for equivalent off-chain equity certificates, such as membership points, coupons, etc. This is not restricted. When smart asset vouchers are used to characterize the user's prediction capabilities, only smart asset vouchers can be exchanged for off-chain equity vouchers, while off-chain equity vouchers are restricted to be exchanged for smart asset vouchers; of course, if there are also predictions that characterize users Capabilities of the first type of smart asset vouchers and the second type of smart asset vouchers that are not used to characterize the user's predictive capabilities can limit the conversion of off-chain equity vouchers to first-class smart asset vouchers, while allowing the off-chain equity vouchers to Class II smart asset certificate.

FIG. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of a device according to an exemplary embodiment. Please refer to FIG. 5. At the hardware level, the device includes a processor 502, an internal bus 504, a network interface 506, a memory 508, and a non-volatile memory 510. Of course, it may also include hardware required by other services. The processor 502 reads the corresponding computer program from the non-volatile memory 510 into the memory 508 and then runs it to form an event prediction device on a logical level. Of course, in addition to the software implementation, one or more embodiments of this specification do not exclude other implementations, such as a logic device or a combination of software and hardware, etc. That is to say, the execution body of the following processing flow is not limited to each A logic unit can also be a hardware or logic device.

Please refer to FIG. 6. In a software implementation, the event prediction device may include:

The obtaining unit 61 obtains a prediction result input by a participant for a specified event published on the blockchain, and an input time of the prediction result is earlier than an occurrence time of an actual result of the specified event;

The comparison unit 62 publishes a corresponding comparison result to the blockchain by comparing the prediction result with the actual result;

An invoking unit 63 invokes a smart contract for asset allocation in the blockchain, where the smart contract is used to read the comparison result to allocate a first smart asset credential to the participant according to the comparison result square.

Optional,

The actual result is published on the blockchain by a oracle node in the blockchain;

Alternatively, the actual results are published on the blockchain by any blockchain node in the blockchain after consensus.

Optionally, the specified event includes one or more sub-events, and the prediction result is used to perform result prediction on the one or more sub-events; wherein the smart contract is used to indicate that the comparison result indicates that the If the prediction result is correct for the result prediction of the one or more sub-events, the first smart asset credential is allocated to the participant.

Optionally, the designated event includes multiple sub-events; when the first smart asset certificate is allocated to the participant, the size of the equity represented by the first smart asset certificate is positively related to the predicted result The proportion of accurately predicted sub-events among the plurality of sub-events.

Optional, also includes:

A determining unit 64, which determines that the second smart asset certificate held by the participant is frozen as a guarantee certificate for guaranteeing the validity of the predicted result;

Wherein, the smart contract is used to release the holding relationship of the participant to the guarantee certificate if the comparison result indicates that the predicted result does not match the actual result.

Optionally, the size of the equity represented by the first smart asset certificate is positively correlated with the size of the equity represented by the second smart asset certificate.

Optional, also includes:

The determining unit 65 determines that the prediction result corresponding to the participant is invalid when the participant does not have a corresponding guarantee certificate.

Optional, also includes:

The voucher conversion unit 66 anchors the smart asset voucher held by the participant to be converted into an equivalent off-chain equity voucher.

The system, device, module, or unit described in the foregoing embodiments may be specifically implemented by a computer chip or entity, or a product with a certain function. A typical implementation device is a computer, and the specific form of the computer may be a personal computer, a laptop computer, a cellular phone, a camera phone, a smart phone, a personal digital assistant, a media player, a navigation device, an email sending and receiving device, and a game control Desk, tablet computer, wearable device, or a combination of any of these devices.

In a typical configuration, a computer includes one or more processors (CPUs), input / output interfaces, network interfaces, and memory.

Memory may include non-persistent memory, random access memory (RAM), and / or non-volatile memory in computer-readable media, such as read-only memory (ROM) or flash memory (flash RAM). Memory is an example of a computer-readable medium.

Computer-readable media includes both permanent and non-persistent, removable and non-removable media. Information can be stored by any method or technology. Information may be computer-readable instructions, data structures, modules of a program, or other data. Examples of computer storage media include, but are not limited to, phase change memory (PRAM), static random access memory (SRAM), dynamic random access memory (DRAM), other types of random access memory (RAM), and read-only memory (ROM), electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), flash memory or other memory technologies, read-only disc read-only memory (CD-ROM), digital versatile disc (DVD) or other optical storage, Magnetic tape cartridges, magnetic disk storage, quantum memory, graphene-based storage media, or other magnetic storage devices or any other non-transmission media can be used to store information that can be accessed by computing devices. As defined herein, computer-readable media does not include temporary computer-readable media, such as modulated data signals and carrier waves.

It should also be noted that the terms "including," "including," or any other variation thereof are intended to encompass non-exclusive inclusion, so that a process, method, product, or device that includes a series of elements includes not only those elements but also Other elements not explicitly listed, or those that are inherent to such a process, method, product, or device. Without more restrictions, the elements defined by the sentence "including a ..." do not exclude the existence of other identical elements in the process, method, product or equipment including the elements.

The specific embodiments of the present specification have been described above. Other embodiments are within the scope of the following claims. In some cases, the actions or steps recited in the claims may be performed in a different order than in the embodiments and the desired result may still be achieved. In addition, the processes depicted in the figures do not necessarily require the particular order shown or sequential order to achieve the desired results. In some embodiments, multitasking and parallel processing are also possible or may be advantageous.

The terminology used in one or more embodiments of this specification is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only, and is not intended to limit one or more embodiments of this specification. The singular forms "a," "the," and "the" used in one or more embodiments of this specification and the appended claims are also intended to include the plural forms unless the context clearly indicates otherwise. It should also be understood that the term "and / or" as used herein refers to and includes any or all possible combinations of one or more of the associated listed items.

It should be understood that although the terms first, second, third, etc. may be used to describe various information in one or more embodiments of the present specification, the information should not be limited to these terms. These terms are only used to distinguish the same type of information from each other. For example, without departing from the scope of one or more embodiments of the present specification, the first information may also be referred to as second information, and similarly, the second information may also be referred to as first information. Depending on the context, the word "if" as used herein can be interpreted as "at" or "when" or "in response to determination".

The above descriptions are merely preferred embodiments of one or more embodiments of the present specification, and are not intended to limit one or more embodiments of the present specification. Wherever within the spirit and principle of one or more embodiments of the present specification, Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. should be included in the protection scope of one or more embodiments of this specification.

Claims

An event prediction method applied to a blockchain node; the method includes:

Obtaining a prediction result input by a participant for a specified event published on the blockchain, where the input time of the prediction result is earlier than the occurrence time of the actual result of the specified event;

By comparing the prediction result with the actual result, publishing a corresponding comparison result to the blockchain;

A smart contract for asset allocation in the blockchain is called, and the smart contract is used to read the comparison result to allocate a first smart asset credential to the participant according to the comparison result.
The method according to claim 1,

The actual result is published on the blockchain by a oracle node in the blockchain;

Alternatively, the actual results are published on the blockchain by any blockchain node in the blockchain after consensus.
The method according to claim 1, wherein the designated event includes one or more sub-events, and the prediction result is used for result prediction of the one or more sub-events; wherein the smart contract is used for The comparison result indicates that, if the prediction result is correct for the result prediction of the one or more sub-events, the first smart asset credential is allocated to the participant.
The method according to claim 1, wherein the designated event includes a plurality of sub-events; when the first smart asset certificate is allocated to the participant, the size of the equity represented by the first smart asset certificate is positively related to The proportion of the sub-events accurately predicted by the prediction result among the multiple sub-events.
The method of claim 1, further comprising:

Determining that the second smart asset voucher held by the participant is frozen as a guarantee voucher for guaranteeing the validity of the predicted result;

Wherein, the smart contract is used to release the holding relationship of the participant to the guarantee certificate if the comparison result indicates that the predicted result does not match the actual result.
The method according to claim 5, wherein the size of the equity represented by the first smart asset certificate is positively correlated with the size of the equity represented by the second smart asset certificate.
The method of claim 5, further comprising:

When the participant does not have a corresponding guarantee certificate, it is determined that the prediction result corresponding to the participant is invalid.
The method of claim 1, further comprising:

Anchor the smart asset vouchers held by the participants to convert them into equivalent off-chain equity vouchers.
An event prediction device is applied to a blockchain node; the device includes:

An obtaining unit that obtains a prediction result input by a participant for a specified event published on the blockchain, and the input time of the prediction result is earlier than the occurrence time of the actual result of the specified event;

A comparison unit, by comparing the predicted result with the actual result, publishing a corresponding comparison result to the blockchain;

An invoking unit for invoking a smart contract for asset allocation in the blockchain, the smart contract being used to read the comparison result to allocate a first smart asset credential to the participant according to the comparison result .
The device according to claim 9,

The actual result is published on the blockchain by a oracle node in the blockchain;

Alternatively, the actual results are published on the blockchain by any blockchain node in the blockchain after consensus.
The device according to claim 9, wherein the designated event includes one or more sub-events, and the prediction result is used for result prediction of the one or more sub-events; wherein the smart contract is used for The comparison result indicates that, if the prediction result is correct for the result prediction of the one or more sub-events, the first smart asset credential is allocated to the participant.
The device according to claim 9, the designated event comprises a plurality of sub-events; when the first smart asset certificate is allocated to the participant, the size of the equity represented by the first smart asset certificate is positively related to The proportion of the sub-events accurately predicted by the prediction result among the multiple sub-events.
The apparatus according to claim 9, further comprising:

A determining unit, which determines that the second smart asset voucher held by the participant is frozen as a guarantee voucher for guaranteeing the validity of the predicted result;

Wherein, the smart contract is used to release the holding relationship of the participant to the guarantee certificate if the comparison result indicates that the predicted result does not match the actual result.
The device according to claim 13, the size of the equity represented by the first smart asset certificate is positively correlated with the size of the equity represented by the second smart asset certificate.
The apparatus according to claim 13, further comprising:

The determination unit determines that the prediction result corresponding to the participant is invalid when the participant does not have a corresponding guarantee certificate.
The apparatus according to claim 9, further comprising:

The voucher conversion unit anchors the smart asset vouchers held by the participants to convert them into equivalent off-chain equity vouchers.
An electronic device includes:

processor;

Memory for storing processor-executable instructions;

The processor executes the executable instructions to implement the event prediction method according to any one of claims 1-8.