CN109146146A - Event prediction method and device, electronic equipment - Google Patents
Event prediction method and device, electronic equipment Download PDFInfo
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- CN109146146A CN109146146A CN201810847090.6A CN201810847090A CN109146146A CN 109146146 A CN109146146 A CN 109146146A CN 201810847090 A CN201810847090 A CN 201810847090A CN 109146146 A CN109146146 A CN 109146146A
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Abstract
This specification one or more embodiment provides a kind of event prediction method and device, electronic equipment, is applied to block chain node；The described method includes: determine that participant is directed to the prediction result of specified event input and is released to block chain, the generation moment of the input time of the prediction result earlier than the actual result of the specified event；Call the intelligent contract for being used for evaluation and foreca situation, the intelligence contract be used to read the prediction result and the actual result, and the prediction result is compared with the actual result, the first intellectual capital voucher to be distributed to the participant according to comparison result.
Description
Technical field
This specification one or more embodiment be related to block chain technical field more particularly to a kind of event prediction method and
Device, electronic equipment.
Background technique
It for the event not yet completed, generally requires after the completion of waiting the event, can accurately know the knot of the event
Fruit.But wish to know in advance under some scenes event as a result, such as taking reply to arrange in advance based on the result of the event
It applies, the result based on the event determines the need for being adjusted the processing scheme of correlating event for another example.
In the related art, prediction of result can be carried out to event in several ways, such as according to the pre- of historical data
Analysis is surveyed, forecast analysis etc. is carried out by the prediction model that sample training goes out for another example.Due to use prediction data, use
Prediction mode, locating prediction environment etc. have differences, so that different participant is to participate in the result for same event pre-
When survey, the prediction result frequently resulted in is also not quite similar, or even there are relatively large deviations.
Summary of the invention
In view of this, this specification one or more embodiment provides a kind of event prediction method and device, electronic equipment.
To achieve the above object, it is as follows to provide technical solution for this specification one or more embodiment:
According to this specification one or more embodiment in a first aspect, propose a kind of event prediction method, it is applied to
Block chain node；The described method includes:
Determine that participant is directed to the prediction result that specified event inputs and is released to block chain, the input of the prediction result
Generation moment of the moment earlier than the actual result of the specified event；
The intelligent contract for being used for evaluation and foreca situation is called, the intelligence contract be used to read the prediction result and institute
Actual result is stated, and the prediction result is compared with the actual result, to be provided the first intelligence according to comparison result
Voucher is produced to distribute to the participant.
According to the second aspect of this specification one or more embodiment, a kind of event prediction device is proposed, is applied to
Block chain node；Described device includes:
Determination unit is issued, determines that participant is directed to the prediction result that specified event inputs and is released to block chain, it is described
Generation moment of the input time of prediction result earlier than the actual result of the specified event；
Contract call unit, calls the intelligent contract for being used for evaluation and foreca situation, and the intelligence contract be used to read institute
State prediction result and the actual result, and the prediction result be compared with the actual result, with according to compare knot
Fruit distributes the first intellectual capital voucher to the participant.
According to the third aspect of this specification one or more embodiment, a kind of electronic equipment is proposed, comprising:
Processor；
Memory for storage processor executable instruction；
Wherein, the processor is by running the executable instruction to realize the thing as described in any in above-described embodiment
Part prediction technique.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is a kind of flow chart for event prediction method that an exemplary embodiment provides.
Fig. 2 is a kind of schematic diagram for predicted events result that an exemplary embodiment provides.
Fig. 3 is the flow chart for the function logic that a kind of intelligent contract that an exemplary embodiment provides is implemented.
Fig. 4 is the flow chart for the function logic that the intelligent contract of another kind that an exemplary embodiment provides is implemented.
Fig. 5 is a kind of structural schematic diagram for equipment that an exemplary embodiment provides.
Fig. 6 is a kind of block diagram for event prediction device that an exemplary embodiment provides.
Specific embodiment
Example embodiments are described in detail here, and the example is illustrated in the accompanying drawings.Following description is related to
When attached drawing, unless otherwise indicated, the same numbers in different drawings indicate the same or similar elements.Following exemplary embodiment
Described in embodiment do not represent all embodiments consistent with this specification one or more embodiment.Phase
Instead, they are only some aspects phases with the one or more embodiments of as detailed in the attached claim, this specification
The example of consistent device and method.
It should be understood that the sequence that might not show and describe according to this specification in other embodiments executes
The step of correlation method.In some other embodiments, step included by method can than described in this specification more
It is more or less.In addition, single step described in this specification, may be broken down into other embodiments multiple steps into
Row description；And multiple steps described in this specification, it may also be merged into single step progress in other embodiments
Description.
Fig. 1 is a kind of flow chart for event prediction method that an exemplary embodiment provides.As shown in Figure 1, this method is answered
For block chain node, may comprise steps of:
Step 102, determine that participant is directed to the prediction result that specified event inputs and is released to block chain, the prediction knot
Generation moment of the input time of fruit earlier than the actual result of the specified event.
In one embodiment, by creating transaction (transfer) in the client of block chain, the transaction can be passed through
The prediction result that participant inputs is distributed on block chain, a data in the distributed data base of block chain are become.
It is noted that the transaction in block chain, there are points of the transaction of narrow sense and the transaction of broad sense.The friendship of narrow sense
Easily refer to the value Transfer that user issues to block chain；For example, in traditional bit coin block chain network, transaction can be with
It is that initiate in block chain one of user transfers accounts.And the transaction of broad sense refers to that one that user issues to block chain has business
The business datum of intention；For example, operator can build alliance's chain based on actual business demand, chain portion of alliance is relied on
Affix one's name to it is some it is unrelated with value Transfer it is other types of line service (for example, event prediction, business of renting a house, vehicle scheduling business,
Settlement of insurance claim business, credit services, medical services etc.), and in this kind of alliance's chain, transaction can be user and send out in alliance's chain
The service message or service request that there is one of cloth business to be intended to.Transaction in this specification should be tended to be interpreted as
Sensu lato transaction.
In one embodiment, since block chain uses distributed data base, so that being distributed to the prediction result on block chain
It can not be tampered, it can be ensured that prediction result is true, reliable.
In one embodiment, the prediction result of participant input can be issued from above-mentioned block chain node to block chain.?
In another embodiment, the prediction result of participant input can be from being different from other block chain nodes of above-mentioned block chain node to area
The publication of block chain, and above-mentioned block chain node can know information relevant to the prediction result, can also by the prediction result (or
The cryptographic Hash of the prediction result) it is recorded in the local data base (i.e. block chain account book) of the block chain node maintenance.
In one embodiment, one or more participants can predict same event, so that can be on block chain
In the presence of the prediction result for corresponding respectively to each participant；Wherein, each participant may exist corresponding unique identification, so that
The prediction result of each participant publication can be associated with its unique identification, in order to each pre- to what is issued on block chain
Result is surveyed effectively to be distinguished.
In one embodiment, specified event is any one occurrence for being specified determination and needing to carry out prediction of result, such as a certain
The traffic condition at crossing, the rice harvest in a certain area, the typhoon formation time in a certain sea area etc., this specification not to this into
Row limitation.
In one embodiment, the input time of prediction result should earlier than the generation moment of the actual result of specified event,
The input time can be recorded in the transaction in block chain comprising the prediction result, or can be directly by the wound of the transaction
It builds constantly as the input time.In one case, when it is temporal event that this, which specifies event, i.e., this specifies event from starting
Moment is very short to the period between finish time, insufficient for participant during this period of time input prediction as a result, participate in
It side can be in any time input prediction result before the generation moment of actual result.In another case, when this is specified
When event is non-instantaneous event, i.e., participant can specify in the initial time of event to the period between finish time at this
Input prediction is as a result, participant input prediction result after the initial time for specifying event can be limited.
Step 104, the intelligent contract for being used for evaluation and foreca situation is called, the intelligence contract be used to read the prediction
As a result with the actual result, and the prediction result is compared with the actual result, with according to comparison result by
One intellectual capital voucher is distributed to the participant.
In one embodiment, the processing being compared to prediction result with actual result can be previously written in intelligent contract
Logic, and the processing logic being allocated based on comparative result to intellectual capital voucher allow intelligent contract to be based on reading
The prediction result and actual result that take and automatically determine whether to need to distribute the first intellectual capital voucher to corresponding participant；Its
In, since the processing logic on intelligent contract is disclosure, and entire treatment process is automatically performed by intelligent contract, is not deposited
In manual intervention, so that the distribution relatively or to intellectual capital voucher either to prediction result and actual result, it can
Enough ensure objective, just.
In one embodiment, when prediction result and actual result match, show the participant that the prediction result is provided
There is certain accuracy for the prediction of result of above-mentioned specified event.So, by distributing the first intellectual capital to participant
Voucher can control each participant for the volume of holding of intellectual capital voucher, thus to a certain extent for each participation
The effect of Fang Shixian label: it is stronger for the predictive ability of event result to hold the more participant of intellectual capital voucher, thus
During subsequent event prediction, the strong participant of predictive ability can be quickly filtered out accordingly, to obtain from these participants
Obtaining may relatively more accurate prediction result.
In one embodiment, intellectual capital voucher is for characterizing certain equity, to realize on participant Accurate Prediction
The excitation for stating specified event facilitates the participant and continues to participate in prediction to successor, to realize benign cycle.Such as
When implementing predetermined registration operation on block chain, for example the predetermined registration operation may include publication transaction, initiates common recognition (such as base participant
Initiated in the practical Byzantine failure tolerance algorithm of PBFT) etc., it can be provided by distributing a certain amount of intelligence to each block chain node
Voucher is produced, to promote the predetermined registration operation that can smoothly complete as early as possible.Participant can be by playing the part of anchor on block chain for another example
The intellectual capital voucher held is converted to equity voucher outside chain of equal value, for example by the block chain node of point (anchor) role
Member's integral, discount coupon on transaction platform in member system etc., this specification is limited not to this.
In one embodiment, above-mentioned intelligent contract can be called under transaction or the driving of another intelligent contract, with
It triggers it and reads above-mentioned prediction result and actual result etc. from block chain, so that the event for further implementing this specification is pre-
Survey scheme.In one case, specify the actual result of event can be by prophesy machine (Oracle) node in the block chain
It is distributed on the block chain, since the data that prophesy machine node provides are considered absolutely reliable, thus may insure the reality
As a result accuracy.In another case, the actual result for specifying event can be after knowing together by the block chain
Either block chain node is distributed on the block chain, for example the either block chain node can be initiated in block chain common recognition,
Confirmed with the actual result provided for the either block chain node, when the actual result has passed through each block chain node
Common recognition after, show the actual result have enough accuracy, can be applied to be compared with prediction result.
In one embodiment, the specified event includes one or more subevents, and the prediction result is used for described
One or more subevents carry out prediction of result；Wherein, the intelligent contract is used in the prediction result to one
Or in the correct situation of the prediction of result of multiple subevents, the first intellectual capital voucher is distributed to the participant.
In other words, when prediction of result of the prediction result to specified event is completely correct, which is determined as by intelligent contract
The actual result of event is specified assigned in this.
In one embodiment, the specified event includes multiple subevents；When the first intellectual capital voucher is assigned
When to the participant, it is accurate by the prediction result that the equity size that the first intellectual capital voucher is characterized is positively correlated with
Accounting of the subevent of prediction in the multiple subevent.For example, when prediction result is identical with actual result, i.e. quilt
Accounting of the subevent of the prediction result Accurate Prediction in the multiple subevent is 100%, the first intellectual capital voucher
The equity size characterized can be preset maximum value；It is when prediction result and actual result be not completely identical, i.e., described
Accounting of the subevent of prediction result Accurate Prediction in the multiple subevent is 0%, and the first intellectual capital voucher is characterized
Equity size can be preset minimum value (0 or other preset values).
In one embodiment, the equity size that the first intellectual capital voucher is characterized can use linear change, such as account for
When than being 30%, equity size is the 30% of preset maximum value, in another example equity size is preset maximum value when accounting is 80%
80% etc..In another embodiment, the equity size that the first intellectual capital voucher is characterized can use nonlinear change, example
When such as accounting being 30%, equity size is the 10% of preset maximum value, then when for example accounting is 80%, equity size be it is default most
50% be worth greatly, in another example equity size is 80% etc. of preset maximum value when accounting is 95%.
In one embodiment, the specified event includes multiple subevents, when prediction result and actual result and non-fully
When consistent, and though by accounting of the subevent of the prediction result Accurate Prediction in the multiple subevent why, can be with
It is determined as that the two mismatches, to not distribute intellectual capital voucher to participant.
In one embodiment, can determine that the second intellectual capital voucher that the participant is held is frozen, using as with
In the guarantee voucher for the validity for assuring the prediction result；Wherein, the intelligent contract be used for the prediction result not
The participant is released in the case where assigned in the actual result, and relationship is held to the guarantee voucher.By the way that participant is held
The second intellectual capital voucher having freezes to assure voucher, so that the guarantee voucher is used for the prediction result provided participant
It is assured, certain participation threshold participant can be arranged, avoid arbitrarily participating in and influencing the standard to above-mentioned specified event
Really prediction.
In one embodiment, when the equity of the second intellectual capital voucher characterization is bigger, show that participant provides itself
Prediction result it is more self-confident, then showing that participant is certain to a certain extent when prediction result and actual result match
Have an extremely strong predictive ability, thus the equity size by being characterized the first intellectual capital voucher be set as with it is described
The equity size of second intellectual capital voucher characterization is positively correlated, and can carry out to the predictive ability of corresponding participant subject to more
It really marks, and corresponding participant is greatly motivated.
In one embodiment, it even if participant does not freeze to form guarantee voucher, may still participate in specified event
Prediction of result, and the first above-mentioned intellectual capital voucher is obtained in the case where prediction result and actual result match.Another
In one embodiment, when participant does not freeze to form guarantee voucher, the prediction result of participant input is judged as in vain, making
It can not really participate in the prediction of result to specified event；Alternatively, in the case where prediction result and actual result match,
Although can distribute the first intellectual capital voucher to the participant, which is unable to characterize any equity
It is equivalent to unallocated any intellectual capital voucher, so that the participation of the participant is meaningless.
Fig. 2 is a kind of schematic diagram for predicted events result that an exemplary embodiment provides.As shown in Figure 2, it is assumed that user A
Wish that the prediction of result for participating in being directed to event B, the user A can be by being equipped with the 21 input prediction result of mobile phone of client.
The prediction result can be obtained by user A by any way, for example, by user A by unshowned server in Fig. 2 to going through
History data carry out big data analysis and obtain, and are for another example obtained by user A according to experience, and this specification is not to this progress
Limitation.
Equipment 22 is configured as a block chain node in block chain, which can receive the pre- of the transmission of mobile phone 21
Survey result；The login account in client run based on mobile phone 21, the prediction result can be determined that from user A.
Certainly, above-mentioned prediction result can also be sent to other block chain nodes in block chain, these block chain links by mobile phone 21
The treatment process of point is similar with equipment 22, can be with reference to the associated description in this specification for equipment 22.And other users
Can to event B carry out prediction of result, and the mobile phone used by itself or other electronic equipments be sent to equipment 22 or other
At block chain node, the treatment process of these users is similar with user A, can be with reference to the correlation in this specification for user A
Description.
Equipment 22 can know together to the prediction result of user A input in block chain, so that the prediction result is logical
It is released to block chain after crossing common recognition, to record into the distributed data base of block chain, i.e., " cochain ".This specification is simultaneously unlimited
Surely the type of the common recognition algorithm used；For example, the equipment 22 can when the block chain locating for the equipment 22 is alliance's chain or publicly-owned chain
With based on such as PBFT (Practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance, practical Byzantine failure tolerance) algorithm to other
Block chain node initiates common recognition, and the prediction result is distributed to block chain after through common recognition, is recorded it to block chain
Distributed data base in；For another example the equipment 22 can be with other blocks when the block chain locating for the equipment 22 is publicly-owned chain
Chain node is based on POW (Proof of Work, proof of work) algorithm, POS (Proof of Stake, equity prove) algorithm
Or other algorithms competition book keeping operation power, and the block chain node from obtaining book keeping operation power charges to transaction data into respective block, and work as
When the transaction of prediction result comprising user A input is credited to, which can be recorded to the distributed number of block chain
According in library.
It may include prophesy machine node 23 in block chain, the available chain of prophesy machine node 23 is outer (i.e. except block chain)
Data, and data outside chain are passed in block chain.For example, the prophesy machine node 23 can obtain the practical knot of event B outside chain
Fruit, and the actual result is distributed in block chain, to be recorded in the distributed data base of block chain, i.e., " cochain ".
In order to determine whether the prediction result of user A input matches with actual result, especially for avoiding handling
It is related to human intervention in the process, ensures accuracy and validity, intelligent contract, the intelligence can be created on block chain in advance
Definition has a function logic for determining the match condition between prediction result and actual result in contract, which can be with
Automatically the actual result of the event B incoming with prophesy machine node 23 of the prediction result to user A input is compared, so that comparing
As a result objective, accurate.
In one embodiment, intelligent contract can by block chain transaction or other intelligent contracts be called, with touching
Its automatic implementation correlation function logic is sent out, it is for example above-mentioned for determining the function of the match condition between prediction result and actual result
Energy logic etc..Other intelligent contracts can be traded or be called to equipment 22 by issuing in block chain, to realize to above-mentioned intelligence
The calling of contract；Alternatively, can be called by other block chain nodes to above-mentioned intelligent contract, this specification not to this into
Row limitation.After called, above-mentioned intelligent contract can be run in equipment 22, with the above-mentioned function logic of automatic implementation.
In order to make it easy to understand, being implemented below with reference to Fig. 3 and Fig. 4 for the intelligent contract referred in embodiment illustrated in fig. 2
Function logic be described in detail.
Fig. 3 is the flow chart for the function logic that a kind of intelligent contract that an exemplary embodiment provides is implemented.Such as Fig. 3 institute
Show, which may comprise steps of:
Step 302, the prediction result of user A is obtained from block chain.
In one embodiment, the prediction result of user A is recorded in a certain transaction on block chain, which can be by
Labeled as related to event B, intelligent contract is allowed to find the transaction from block chain accordingly, and obtain the pre- of user A
Survey result.For example, intelligent contract can be by scanning the transaction record of particular address or the transaction record of specific serial number, i.e.,
It can get the prediction result of user A input.
In one embodiment, the prediction result for there are other users to input also is recorded on block chain, intelligent contract can pass through
Similar fashion obtains these prediction results, no longer repeats one by one herein.
Step 304, actual result is obtained from block chain.
In one embodiment, the incoming actual result of prophesy machine node 23 is recorded in a certain transaction on block chain,
The transaction can be marked as related to event B, allow intelligent contract to find the transaction from block chain accordingly, and obtain
Take the actual result.For example, intelligent contract can pass through the transaction of the transaction record or specific serial number of scanning particular address
Record, can be obtained the actual result.
Step 306, compare the prediction result of user A and the actual result of event B, determine the prediction result and actual result
It is whether consistent.
In one embodiment, it is assumed that event B is unique cases, does not include multiple subevents, so that prediction result and reality
As a result there is only two kinds of situations: result is consistent or result is inconsistent.Prediction result and actual result should data having the same
Structure compares operation in order to realize.For example it is assumed that event B is traffic condition of a certain crossing in peak period on and off duty, prediction
As a result, actual result can separately include a field m, and congestion is indicated as field m=0, is indicated not as field m=1
Congestion.
Step 308A determines user A with the presence or absence of guarantee voucher when prediction result is consistent with actual result.
Step 310A distributes intellectual capital voucher S1 to user A when there is guarantee voucher.
Step 310B distributes intellectual capital voucher S2 to user A when there is no guarantee voucher.
In one embodiment, user A can configure corresponding guarantee voucher to entered by himself prediction result, with for pair
The validity of the prediction result is assured.For example, user A may exist corresponding account a in block chain, and pass through the account
Family a holds certain intellectual capital voucher, can be by freezing at least part intellectual capital voucher in account a
Knot, using as above-mentioned guarantee voucher；For example, at least part intellectual capital voucher can be temporarily transferred to by account a
In dedicated voucher Frozen Account, or at least part intellectual capital voucher addition can be freezed to mark in account a
Know etc., this specification is limited not to this.In this embodiment, the guarantee voucher is not necessarily: if there is guarantee with
Card, can to user A distribute intellectual capital voucher S1, if there is no guarantee voucher, can to user A distribute intellectual capital with
Demonstrate,prove S2；Wherein, the equity that intellectual capital voucher S1 is characterized should be greater than the equity that intellectual capital voucher S2 is characterized, to show
It tenders guarantee the excitation of voucher to user A, and the intellectual capital voucher that user A is held is more, to show the user A's
Predictive ability becomes strong or prediction accuracy increases.Wherein, the equity that intellectual capital voucher S1, S2 are characterized can be fixed value,
Or the equity that the intellectual capital voucher S1, S2 are characterized can be positively correlated with the equity for assuring that voucher be characterized, that is, assure
When the equity that voucher is characterized is bigger/more, the equity that the intellectual capital voucher S1, S2 are characterized is bigger therewith/more.
In one embodiment, in order to avoid user A arbitrarily issues the prediction result to event B, ensures that the prediction result has
Meaning can be arranged a set threshold for the prediction of result of participating user B, for example require user A that must tender guarantee voucher.Cause
This can distribute intellectual capital voucher S1, the intellectual capital voucher S1 to user A and use in the case where there is guarantee voucher
In the certain equity of characterization；And when there is no the intellectual capital voucher S2 in the case where guarantee voucher, distributed to user A to be unable to characterize
Any equity is equivalent to unallocated any intellectual capital voucher, then the participation of user A will be meaningless.
Step 308B determines user A with the presence or absence of guarantee voucher when prediction result and actual result are inconsistent.
Step 310C, when existing, when assuring voucher, deduction assures voucher.
In one embodiment, when prediction result and actual result are inconsistent, i.e. user A to the prediction of result of event B not
Accurate or prediction of failure can make user A termination hold the corresponding intellectual capital of guarantee voucher by deducting guarantee voucher
Voucher, then the intellectual capital voucher held of user A is reduced, to show that the predictive ability of the user A dies down or prediction accuracy
It reduces.
Fig. 4 is the flow chart for the function logic that the intelligent contract of another kind that an exemplary embodiment provides is implemented.Such as Fig. 4 institute
Show, which may comprise steps of:
Step 402, the prediction result of user A is obtained from block chain.
Step 404, actual result is obtained from block chain.
In one embodiment, step 402-404 can refer to step 302-304 shown in Fig. 3, and details are not described herein again.
Step 406, compare the prediction result of user A and the actual result of event B, determine the prediction result and actual result
It is whether completely the same.
In one embodiment, it is assumed that event B includes multiple subevents, if the prediction result of user A is to all sub- things
The equal Accurate Prediction of part, then the prediction result and actual result are completely the same；And the if only Accurate Prediction part subevent user A
As a result, user A inherently implement prediction only for part subevent, then prediction result and actual result possibility portion
Divide consistent；It is of course possible to user A is incorrect to the prediction of all subevents, then prediction result and actual result be not completely
Unanimously.
In one embodiment, prediction result and actual result should data structure having the same, compare in order to realize
Operation.For example it is assumed that event B is a certain crossing in the traffic condition of peak period on and off duty, prediction result, actual result can divide
Not Bao Han traffic condition during field m1 and field m2, m1 field references morning peak, m2 represent evening peak during traffic shape
Condition indicates congestion, the not congestion during expression morning peak as field m1=1 during morning peak as field m1=0, when this
Congestion, the not congestion during expression evening peak as field m2=1 during expression evening peak when field m2=0.
Step 408A determines user A with the presence or absence of guarantee voucher when prediction result and actual result are completely the same.
Step 410A distributes intellectual capital voucher S1 to user A when there is guarantee voucher.
Step 410B distributes intellectual capital voucher S2 to user A when there is no guarantee voucher.
In one embodiment, step 408A, step 410A and step 410B can with reference to step 308A as shown in Figure 3,
Step 310A and step 310B, details are not described herein again.
Step 408B determines that prediction result is with actual result when prediction result and actual result are not completely the same
No part is consistent.
Step 410C, when prediction result and actual result it is completely inconsistent when, assure voucher if it exists, then deduct guarantee with
Card.
In one embodiment, analogously with embodiment illustrated in fig. 3, user A can match entered by himself prediction result
Corresponding guarantee voucher is set, to assure for the validity to the prediction result.So, when prediction result and actual result
When completely inconsistent, i.e. user A can make the prediction of result inaccuracy or prediction of failure of event B by deducting guarantee voucher
It obtains user A termination and holds the corresponding intellectual capital voucher of the guarantee voucher, then the intellectual capital voucher that user A holds is reduced,
To show that the predictive ability of the user A dies down or prediction accuracy reduces.
Step 410D determines user A with the presence or absence of guarantee voucher when prediction result is consistent with actual result part.
Step 412A distributes intellectual capital voucher S3 to user A when there is guarantee voucher.
Step 412B distributes intellectual capital voucher S4 to user A when there is no guarantee voucher.
In one embodiment, similar with step 410A-410B, when prediction result is consistent with actual result part,
Show that user A has a degree of predictive ability, thus for the mark to this fractional prediction ability, and for user A
Excitation, certain intellectual capital voucher can be distributed to user A.In this embodiment, the guarantee voucher is not necessarily: if
In the presence of guarantee voucher, intellectual capital voucher S3 can be distributed to user A, if there is no guarantee voucher, can be distributed to user A
Intellectual capital voucher S4；Wherein, in terms of the equity size characterized: S1 > S3 > S4, S1 > S2 > S4.
In one embodiment, the equity that intellectual capital voucher S1, S3 are characterized can be corresponding fixed value, or
The equity that the equity that the intellectual capital voucher S1, S3 are characterized can be characterized with guarantee voucher respectively is positively correlated, that is, assures
When the equity that voucher is characterized is bigger/more, the equity that the intellectual capital voucher S1, S3 are characterized is bigger therewith/more.
In one embodiment, in order to avoid user A arbitrarily issues the prediction result to event B, ensures that the prediction result has
Meaning can be arranged a set threshold for the prediction of result of participating user B, for example require user A that must tender guarantee voucher.Cause
This can distribute intellectual capital voucher S3, the intellectual capital voucher S3 to user A and use in the case where there is guarantee voucher
In the certain equity of characterization；And when there is no the intellectual capital voucher S4 in the case where guarantee voucher, distributed to user A to be unable to characterize
Any equity is equivalent to unallocated any intellectual capital voucher, then the participation of user A will be meaningless.
In one embodiment, since user A is only in the case where prediction result and actual result match, can divide
Be fitted on corresponding intellectual capital voucher, thus the intellectual capital voucher held of user A can be used for characterizing its predictive ability or
Prediction accuracy shows the predictive ability of the user A that is, when the intellectual capital voucher held is more or the equity of characterization is bigger
Stronger or prediction accuracy is higher.
Wherein, intellectual capital voucher can also be used for other aspects by user A.For example, the Partial Block chain in block chain
Node can play the part of the role of anchor point, and the intellectual capital voucher that user A holds can be converted to equity voucher outside chain of equal value,
For example member's integral, discount coupon etc., this specification is limited not to this.When intellectual capital voucher is for characterizing the pre- of user
When survey ability, only allow to convert to intellectual capital voucher equity voucher outside chain, and limits and equity voucher outside chain is converted into intelligence
It can assets voucher；Certainly, if existing simultaneously the first kind intellectual capital voucher of the predictive ability for characterizing user, being not used in
The the second class intellectual capital voucher for characterizing the predictive ability of user can limit equity voucher outside chain converting to first kind intelligence
Assets voucher and allow to convert to equity voucher outside chain into the second class intellectual capital voucher.
Fig. 5 is a kind of schematic configuration diagram for equipment that an exemplary embodiment provides.Referring to FIG. 5, in hardware view, it should
Equipment includes processor 502, internal bus 504, network interface 506, memory 508 and nonvolatile memory 510, is gone back certainly
It may include hardware required for other business.Processor 502 reads corresponding computer journey from nonvolatile memory 510
Then sequence is run into memory 508, event prediction device is formed on logic level.Certainly, other than software realization mode,
Other implementations, such as the mode of logical device or software and hardware combining is not precluded in this specification one or more embodiment
Etc., that is to say, that the executing subject of following process flow is not limited to each logic unit, is also possible to hardware or logic
Device.
Referring to FIG. 6, the event prediction device can be applied to block chain node in Software Implementation；The device
Include:
Determination unit 61 is issued, determines that participant is directed to the prediction result that specified event inputs and is released to block chain, institute
State the generation moment of the input time of prediction result earlier than the actual result of the specified event；
Contract call unit 62, calls the intelligent contract for being used for evaluation and foreca situation, and the intelligence contract be used to read
The prediction result and the actual result, and the prediction result is compared with the actual result, with according to comparing
As a result the first intellectual capital voucher is distributed to the participant.
Optionally,
The actual result is read from the block chain by the intelligent contract, and the actual result is by the block chain
In prophesy machine node be distributed on the block chain；
Alternatively, the actual result is read from the block chain by the intelligent contract, the actual result is through knowing together
It is distributed on the block chain by the either block chain node in the block chain afterwards.
Optionally, the specified event includes one or more subevents, the prediction result be used for one or
Multiple subevents carry out prediction of result；Wherein, the intelligent contract is used in the prediction result to one or more of
In the correct situation of the prediction of result of subevent, the first intellectual capital voucher is distributed to the participant.
Optionally, the specified event includes multiple subevents；When the first intellectual capital voucher is assigned to described
When participant, the equity size that the first intellectual capital voucher is characterized is positively correlated with by the prediction result Accurate Prediction
Accounting of the subevent in the multiple subevent.
Optionally, further includes:
Freeze determination unit 63, determine that the second intellectual capital voucher that the participant is held is frozen, using as being used for
Assure the guarantee voucher of the validity of the prediction result；
Wherein, the intelligent contract is for releasing institute in the case where the prediction result does not match the actual result
It states participant and relationship is held to the guarantee voucher.
Optionally, the equity size and the second intellectual capital voucher that the first intellectual capital voucher is characterized characterize
Equity size be positively correlated.
Optionally, the intelligent contract is used to determine in the case where corresponding guarantee voucher is not present in the participant
The corresponding prediction result of the participant is invalid.
Optionally, further includes:
Voucher redemption unit 64 is anchored the intellectual capital voucher that the participant is held, to convert to equivalence
The outer equity voucher of chain.
System, device, module or the unit that above-described embodiment illustrates can specifically realize by computer chip or entity,
Or it is realized by the product with certain function.A kind of typically to realize that equipment is computer, the concrete form of computer can
To be personal computer, laptop computer, cellular phone, camera phone, smart phone, personal digital assistant, media play
In device, navigation equipment, E-mail receiver/send equipment, game console, tablet computer, wearable device or these equipment
The combination of any several equipment.
In a typical configuration, computer includes one or more processors (CPU), input/output interface, network
Interface and memory.
Memory may include the non-volatile memory in computer-readable medium, random access memory (RAM) and/or
The forms such as Nonvolatile memory, such as read-only memory (ROM) or flash memory (flash RAM).Memory is computer-readable medium
Example.
Computer-readable medium includes permanent and non-permanent, removable and non-removable media can be by any method
Or technology come realize information store.Information can be computer readable instructions, data structure, the module of program or other data.
The example of the storage medium of computer includes, but are not limited to phase change memory (PRAM), static random access memory (SRAM), moves
State random access memory (DRAM), other kinds of random access memory (RAM), read-only memory (ROM), electric erasable
Programmable read only memory (EEPROM), flash memory or other memory techniques, read-only disc read only memory (CD-ROM) (CD-ROM),
Digital versatile disc (DVD) or other optical storage, magnetic cassettes, disk storage, quantum memory, based on graphene
Storage medium or other magnetic storage devices or any other non-transmission medium, can be used for storing can be accessed by a computing device
Information.As defined in this article, computer-readable medium does not include temporary computer readable media (transitory media),
Such as the data-signal and carrier wave of modulation.
It should also be noted that, the terms "include", "comprise" or its any other variant are intended to nonexcludability
It include so that the process, method, commodity or the equipment that include a series of elements not only include those elements, but also to wrap
Include other elements that are not explicitly listed, or further include for this process, method, commodity or equipment intrinsic want
Element.In the absence of more restrictions, the element limited by sentence "including a ...", it is not excluded that including described want
There is also other identical elements in the process, method of element, commodity or equipment.
It is above-mentioned that this specification specific embodiment is described.Other embodiments are in the scope of the appended claims
It is interior.In some cases, the movement recorded in detail in the claims or step can be come according to the sequence being different from embodiment
It executes and desired result still may be implemented.In addition, process depicted in the drawing not necessarily require show it is specific suitable
Sequence or consecutive order are just able to achieve desired result.In some embodiments, multitasking and parallel processing be also can
With or may be advantageous.
The term that this specification one or more embodiment uses be only merely for for the purpose of describing particular embodiments, and
It is not intended to be limiting this specification one or more embodiment.In this specification one or more embodiment and the appended claims
Used in the "an" of singular, " described " and "the" be also intended to including most forms, unless context understands earth's surface
Show other meanings.It is also understood that term "and/or" used herein refers to and includes one or more associated list
Any or all of project may combine.
It will be appreciated that though this specification one or more embodiment may using term first, second, third, etc. come
Various information are described, but these information should not necessarily be limited by these terms.These terms are only used to same type of information area each other
It separates.For example, the first information can also be referred to as in the case where not departing from this specification one or more scope of embodiments
Two information, similarly, the second information can also be referred to as the first information.Depending on context, word as used in this is " such as
Fruit " can be construed to " ... when " or " when ... " or " in response to determination ".
The foregoing is merely the preferred embodiments of this specification one or more embodiment, not to limit this theory
Bright book one or more embodiment, all within the spirit and principle of this specification one or more embodiment, that is done is any
Modification, equivalent replacement, improvement etc. should be included within the scope of the protection of this specification one or more embodiment.
Claims (17)
1. a kind of event prediction method is applied to block chain node；The described method includes:
Determine that participant is directed to the prediction result that specified event inputs and is released to block chain, the input time of the prediction result
Earlier than the generation moment of the actual result of the specified event；
The intelligent contract for being used for evaluation and foreca situation is called, the intelligence contract be used to read the prediction result and the reality
Border as a result, and the prediction result is compared with the actual result, with according to comparison result by the first intellectual capital with
Card is distributed to the participant.
2. according to the method described in claim 1,
The actual result is read from the block chain by the intelligent contract, and the actual result is by the block chain
Prophesy machine node is distributed on the block chain；
Alternatively, the actual result is read from the block chain by the intelligent contract, the actual result after knowing together by
Either block chain node in the block chain is distributed on the block chain.
3. the prediction result is used according to the method described in claim 1, the specified event includes one or more subevents
In to one or more of subevents progress prediction of result；Wherein, the intelligent contract is used in the prediction result pair
In the correct situation of the prediction of result of one or more of subevents, the first intellectual capital voucher is distributed to described
Participant.
4. according to the method described in claim 1, the specified event includes multiple subevents；When first intellectual capital with
When card is assigned to the participant, the equity size that the first intellectual capital voucher is characterized is positively correlated with by the prediction
As a result accounting of the subevent of Accurate Prediction in the multiple subevent.
5. according to the method described in claim 1, further include:
Determine that the second intellectual capital voucher that the participant is held is frozen, as assuring having for the prediction result
The guarantee voucher of effect property；
Wherein, the intelligent contract is for releasing the ginseng in the case where the prediction result does not match the actual result
Relationship is held to the guarantee voucher with side.
6. according to the method described in claim 5, the equity size and described second that the first intellectual capital voucher is characterized
The equity size of intellectual capital voucher characterization is positively correlated.
7. according to the method described in claim 5, it is described intelligence contract be used for the participant there is no it is corresponding guarantee with
In the case where card, determine that the corresponding prediction result of the participant is invalid.
8. according to the method described in claim 1, further include:
The intellectual capital voucher that the participant is held is anchored, to convert to equity voucher outside chain of equal value.
9. a kind of event prediction device is applied to block chain node；Described device includes:
Determination unit is issued, determines that participant is directed to the prediction result that specified event inputs and is released to block chain, the prediction
As a result generation moment of the input time earlier than the actual result of the specified event；
Contract call unit, calls the intelligent contract for being used for evaluation and foreca situation, and the intelligence contract be used to read described pre-
Result and the actual result are surveyed, and the prediction result is compared with the actual result, to be incited somebody to action according to comparison result
First intellectual capital voucher is distributed to the participant.
10. device according to claim 9,
The actual result is read from the block chain by the intelligent contract, and the actual result is by the block chain
Prophesy machine node is distributed on the block chain；
Alternatively, the actual result is read from the block chain by the intelligent contract, the actual result after knowing together by
Either block chain node in the block chain is distributed on the block chain.
11. device according to claim 9, the specified event includes one or more subevents, the prediction result
For carrying out prediction of result to one or more of subevents；Wherein, the intelligent contract is used in the prediction result
To in the correct situation of the prediction of result of one or more of subevents, the first intellectual capital voucher is distributed to institute
State participant.
12. device according to claim 9, the specified event includes multiple subevents；When first intellectual capital
When voucher is assigned to the participant, the equity size that the first intellectual capital voucher is characterized is positively correlated with by described pre-
Survey accounting of the subevent of result Accurate Prediction in the multiple subevent.
13. device according to claim 9, further includes:
Freeze determination unit, determines that the second intellectual capital voucher that the participant is held is frozen, as assuring institute
State the guarantee voucher of the validity of prediction result；
Wherein, the intelligent contract is for releasing the ginseng in the case where the prediction result does not match the actual result
Relationship is held to the guarantee voucher with side.
14. device according to claim 13, equity size that the first intellectual capital voucher is characterized and described the
The equity size of two intellectual capital vouchers characterization is positively correlated.
15. device according to claim 13, the intelligence contract is used to that corresponding guarantee to be not present in the participant
In the case where voucher, determine that the corresponding prediction result of the participant is invalid.
16. device according to claim 9, further includes:
Voucher redemption unit is anchored the intellectual capital voucher that the participant is held, and is weighed outside chain of equal value with converting to
Beneficial voucher.
17. a kind of electronic equipment, comprising:
Processor；
Memory for storage processor executable instruction；
Wherein, the processor is by running the executable instruction to realize such as thing of any of claims 1-8
Part prediction technique.
Priority Applications (3)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
|---|---|---|---|
| CN201810847090.6A CN109146146A (en) | 2018-07-27 | 2018-07-27 | Event prediction method and device, electronic equipment |
| TW108101990A TWI729345B (en) | 2018-07-27 | 2019-01-18 | Event prediction method and device, electronic equipment |
| PCT/CN2019/084116 WO2020019783A1 (en) | 2018-07-27 | 2019-04-24 | Event prediction method and apparatus, and electronic device |
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| CN201810847090.6A CN109146146A (en) | 2018-07-27 | 2018-07-27 | Event prediction method and device, electronic equipment |
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| CN201810847090.6A Pending CN109146146A (en) | 2018-07-27 | 2018-07-27 | Event prediction method and device, electronic equipment |
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| CN (1) | CN109146146A (en) |
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| WO2020019783A1 (en) * | 2018-07-27 | 2020-01-30 | 阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司 | Event prediction method and apparatus, and electronic device |
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| WO2020019783A1 (en) | 2020-01-30 |
| TWI729345B (en) | 2021-06-01 |
| TW202008227A (en) | 2020-02-16 |
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