WO2020019791A1

WO2020019791A1 - Event prediction method and apparatus and electronic device

Info

Publication number: WO2020019791A1
Application number: PCT/CN2019/084374
Authority: WO
Inventors: 陆旭明
Original assignee: 阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司
Priority date: 2018-07-27
Filing date: 2019-04-25
Publication date: 2020-01-30
Also published as: CN109117994B; CN109117994A; TWI706340B; TW202008228A

Abstract

One or a plurality of the embodiments of the present description provides an event prediction method and apparatus and an electronic device, used for a blockchain node; said method comprises: determining that a prediction result inputted with regard to a specified event by a participant is published to a blockchain, the moment of input of said prediction result being earlier than the moment at which the actual result of said specified event occurs; invoking a smart contract used for evaluating prediction conditions; said smart contract is used for reading the prediction result and the actual result and performing a comparison between the prediction result and the actual result, such that an allocation instruction is sent to an off-chain object according to the comparison result, said allocation instruction being used for instructing said off-chain object to allocate a first off-chain rights certificate to the participant.

Description

Event prediction method and device, and electronic equipment

Technical field

One or more embodiments of the present specification relate to the field of blockchain technology, and in particular, to an event prediction method and device, and an electronic device.

Background technique

For an unfinished event, it is often necessary to wait for the event to complete before accurately knowing the result of the event. However, in some scenarios, it is desirable to know the result of the event in advance, for example, to take measures in advance based on the result of the event, and then determine whether to adjust the processing plan of the associated event based on the result of the event.

In related technologies, event prediction can be performed in a variety of ways, such as predictive analysis based on historical data, and then predictive analysis based on a prediction model trained on samples. Due to the differences in the prediction data used, the prediction method used, and the prediction environment, the different participants often get different prediction results when they participate in the prediction of the results for the same event, even with large deviations. .

Summary of the Invention

In view of this, one or more embodiments of the present specification provide an event prediction method and device, and an electronic device.

To achieve the above purpose, one or more embodiments of the present specification provide technical solutions as follows:

According to a first aspect of one or more embodiments of the present specification, an event prediction method is proposed, which is applied to a blockchain node; the method includes:

Determining that the prediction result input by a participant for a specified event is published to the blockchain, and the input time of the prediction result is earlier than the occurrence time of the actual result of the specified event;

Invoking a smart contract for evaluating a prediction situation, the smart contract is used to read the prediction result and the actual result, and compare the prediction result with the actual result to go out of the chain according to the comparison result The object sends an allocation instruction, and the allocation instruction is used to instruct the off-chain object to allocate a first off-chain equity certificate to the participant.

According to a second aspect of one or more embodiments of the present specification, an event prediction device is proposed, which is applied to a blockchain node; the device includes:

The release determination unit determines that the prediction result input by the participant for a specified event is released to the blockchain, and the input time of the prediction result is earlier than the occurrence time of the actual result of the specified event;

The contract invoking unit invokes a smart contract for evaluating a prediction situation, and the smart contract is used to read the prediction result and the actual result, and compare the prediction result with the actual result to compare the prediction result with the actual result. As a result, an allocation instruction is sent to the off-chain object, and the allocation instruction is used to instruct the off-chain object to allocate a first off-chain equity certificate to the participant.

According to a third aspect of one or more embodiments of the present specification, an electronic device is provided, including:

processor;

Memory for storing processor-executable instructions;

The processor executes the executable instruction to implement the event prediction method according to any one of the foregoing embodiments.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 is a flowchart of an event prediction method according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of predicting an event result according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 3 is a flowchart of functional logic implemented by a smart contract according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 4 is a flowchart of functional logic implemented by another smart contract according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of a device according to an exemplary embodiment.

FIG. 6 is a block diagram of an event prediction apparatus according to an exemplary embodiment.

detailed description

Exemplary embodiments will be described in detail herein, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings. When the following description refers to the accompanying drawings, the same numbers in different drawings represent the same or similar elements unless otherwise indicated. The implementations described in the following exemplary embodiments do not represent all implementations consistent with one or more embodiments of the present specification. Rather, they are merely examples of devices and methods consistent with some aspects of one or more embodiments of the specification, as detailed in the appended claims.

It should be noted that, in other embodiments, the steps of the corresponding method are not necessarily performed in the order shown and described in this specification. In some other embodiments, the method may include more or fewer steps than described in this specification. In addition, a single step described in this specification may be divided into multiple steps for description in other embodiments; and multiple steps described in this specification may be combined into a single step for other embodiments. description.

FIG. 1 is a flowchart of an event prediction method according to an exemplary embodiment. As shown in Figure 1, the method is applied to a blockchain node and can include the following steps:

Step 102: It is determined that a prediction result input by a participant for a specified event is published to a blockchain, and an input time of the prediction result is earlier than an occurrence time of an actual result of the specified event.

In one embodiment, by creating a transaction on the blockchain client, the transaction can be used to publish the prediction results entered by the participants on the blockchain, becoming one of the distributed databases in the blockchain. Data.

It should be noted that: transactions in the blockchain are divided into narrow transactions and broad transactions. A narrow transaction refers to a value transfer issued by a user to the blockchain; for example, in a traditional Bitcoin blockchain network, a transaction can be a transfer initiated by a user in the blockchain. The generalized transaction refers to a piece of business data with business intent issued by the user to the blockchain; for example, the operator can build an alliance chain based on actual business needs, and rely on the alliance chain to deploy other types that are not related to value transfer. Online business (such as event forecasting, renting business, vehicle dispatching business, insurance claims business, credit service, medical service, etc.), and in this type of alliance chain, the transaction can be a transaction issued by the user in the alliance chain. Intent business message or business request. Transactions in this description should be interpreted as transactions in a broad sense.

In one embodiment, because the blockchain uses a distributed database, the prediction results published on the blockchain cannot be tampered with, and the prediction results can be ensured to be true and reliable.

In one embodiment, the prediction result input by the participant can be published to the blockchain by the aforementioned blockchain node. In another embodiment, the prediction result input by the participant may be published to the blockchain by other blockchain nodes different from the above-mentioned blockchain node, and the above-mentioned blockchain node may obtain information related to the prediction result, and The prediction result (or a hash value of the prediction result) can be recorded in a local database (ie, a blockchain ledger) maintained by the blockchain node.

In one embodiment, one or more participants can predict the same event, so that there can be prediction results corresponding to each participant on the blockchain; wherein each participant can have a corresponding unique identifier, such that The prediction results released by each participant can be associated with its unique identification, so as to effectively distinguish the various prediction results released on the blockchain.

In an embodiment, the designated event is any event that is indicated to be determined to require result prediction, such as traffic conditions at an intersection, rice harvest in a certain area, typhoon formation time in a certain sea area, etc., which is not described in this specification. limit.

In an embodiment, the input time of the prediction result should be earlier than the occurrence time of the actual result of the specified event. The input time can be recorded in the transaction that contains the prediction result in the blockchain, or the transaction can be created directly. The time is used as the input time. In one case, when the specified event is an instantaneous event, that is, the time period from the start time to the end time of the specified event is short, which is not enough for the participant to input the prediction result within the time period, and the participant The predicted result can be entered at any time before the actual result occurs. In another case, when the specified event is a non-transient event, that is, the participant can input the prediction result in a time period between the start time and the end time of the specified event, which can limit the participant in the specified event. Enter the prediction result after the start time of.

Step 104: Invoking a smart contract for evaluating a prediction situation, the smart contract is used to read the prediction result and the actual result, and compare the prediction result with the actual result, according to the comparison result. An allocation instruction is sent to an off-chain object, and the allocation instruction is used to instruct the off-chain object to allocate a first off-chain equity certificate to the participant.

In one embodiment, the smart contract may write in advance processing logic for comparing the predicted result with the actual result, and processing logic for sending an allocation instruction based on the comparison result, so that the smart contract may be based on the read predicted result and the actual result. Automatically determine whether to send allocation instructions; among them, because the processing logic on the smart contract is public content, and the entire processing process is automatically completed by the smart contract, there is no manual intervention, so whether it is the comparison of predicted results and actual results or allocation The sending of instructions can ensure objectivity and fairness.

In one embodiment, when the prediction result matches the actual result, it indicates that the participant providing the prediction result has a certain accuracy for the result prediction of the specified event. Then, by sending an allocation instruction to an off-chain object, so that the off-chain object assigns the first off-chain equity certificate to the participant, it is possible to control the holdings of the off-chain equity certificate by each participant, and to a certain extent for each participation Party to achieve the role of marking: the more parties with more off-chain equity credentials, the stronger the ability to predict the outcome of the event, so in the subsequent event prediction process, it can quickly select the participants with strong predictive ability to Participants obtain prediction results that may be relatively more accurate.

In one embodiment, the off-chain equity voucher is used to characterize certain rights and interests, so as to realize the incentive for the participant to accurately predict the specified event, which helps the participant to continue to participate in the prediction of subsequent events, thereby achieving a virtuous circle. For example, when a participant implements a preset operation on the blockchain, for example, the preset operation can include issuing transactions, initiating consensus (such as initiation based on PBFT's practical Byzantine fault tolerance algorithm), etc., and the off-chain equity credentials can be converted into a blockchain Equivalent smart asset vouchers are included, and a certain amount of smart asset vouchers are allocated to each blockchain node to facilitate the preset operation to be completed smoothly as soon as possible.

In an embodiment, the off-chain equity voucher may include a voucher for characterizing any type of off-chain equity, such as membership points in a member system, coupons, exchange coupons, discount coupons, etc. on the trading platform. The manual does not limit this.

In an embodiment, the above-mentioned smart contract may be called under the driving of a transaction or another smart contract to trigger it to read the above-mentioned prediction result and actual result from the blockchain, thereby further implementing the events of this specification. Forecast scenario. In one case, the actual result of the specified event can be published by the Oracle node in the blockchain to the blockchain. Since the data provided by the Oracle node is considered absolutely reliable, it can be guaranteed The accuracy of this actual result. In another case, the actual result of the designated event may be published by any blockchain node in the blockchain to the blockchain after consensus. For example, any blockchain node may A consensus is initiated in the blockchain to confirm the actual results provided by any one of the blockchain nodes. When the actual result passes the consensus of each blockchain node, it shows that the actual result has sufficient accuracy and can be verified by It should be used for comparison with predicted results.

In an embodiment, the specified event includes one or more sub-events, and the prediction result is used to perform result prediction on the one or more sub-events; wherein the smart contract is used to predict When the result predictions of the one or more sub-events are all correct, the allocation instruction is sent to the off-chain platform, so that the off-chain object allocates the first off-chain equity certificate to the participant. In other words, when the prediction result is completely correct for the result of the specified event, the prediction result is determined by the smart contract to match the actual result of the specified event.

In one embodiment, the designated event includes multiple sub-events; the equity value corresponding to the first off-chain equity certificate is positively related to the proportion of the sub-events that are accurately predicted by the prediction result in the multiple sub-events . For example, when the prediction result is exactly the same as the actual result, that is, the proportion of the sub-events accurately predicted by the prediction result in the multiple sub-events is 100%, and the size of the equity represented by the first off-chain equity certificate can be The preset maximum value; when the prediction result is completely different from the actual result, that is, the proportion of the sub-events accurately predicted by the prediction result in the multiple sub-events is 0%, which is characterized by the first off-chain equity certificate The equity size can be a preset minimum value (0 or other preset value).

In an embodiment, the size of the equity represented by the first off-chain equity certificate can be linearly changed. For example, when the proportion of equity is 30%, the magnitude of equity is 30% of a preset maximum value, and for example, when the proportion is 80%, The equity is 80% of the preset maximum. In another embodiment, the size of the equity represented by the first off-chain equity certificate can be changed non-linearly. For example, when the proportion is 30%, the equity is 10% of the preset maximum value, and for example, the proportion is 80%. When the equity size is 50% of the preset maximum value, for example, when the proportion is 95%, the equity size is 80% of the preset maximum value.

In an embodiment, the specified event includes multiple sub-events. When the prediction result is not completely consistent with the actual result, regardless of the proportion of the sub-events accurately predicted by the prediction result among the multiple sub-events, It can be determined that the two do not match, so that the smart contract does not need to send an allocation instruction to the off-chain object, and thus does not allocate the first off-chain equity certificate to the participant.

In an embodiment, it may be determined that the second off-chain equity certificate held by the participant is frozen as a guarantee certificate for guaranteeing the validity of the predicted result; wherein the smart contract is used for When the prediction result does not match the actual result, a deduction instruction is sent to the manager of the guarantee certificate to release the participant's holding relationship to the guarantee certificate. By freezing the second off-chain equity certificate held by the participant as a guarantee certificate, the guarantee certificate is used to guarantee the forecast results provided by the participant, which can set a certain threshold for the participant to avoid the impact of random participation Accurate predictions of the events specified above.

In an embodiment, when the equity represented by the security voucher is greater, it indicates that the participant is more confident in the prediction result provided by himself. Then, when the prediction result matches the actual result, it indicates to a certain extent that the participant does have a very strong Therefore, by setting the size of the equity represented by the first-chain equity certificate to be positively related to the size of the equity represented by the security certificate, the forecasting ability of the corresponding participant can be more accurately labeled, and Provide greater incentives for corresponding parties.

In one embodiment, even if the participant does not freeze to form the security voucher, he can still participate in the prediction of the result of the specified event, and obtain the above-mentioned first off-chain equity certificate if the predicted result matches the actual result. In another embodiment, when the participant does not freeze to form the guarantee voucher, the prediction result entered by the participant is determined to be invalid, so that it cannot really participate in the prediction of the result of the specified event; or, between the predicted result and the actual result In the case of matching, although the first off-chain equity certificate can be assigned to the participant, the first off-chain equity certificate cannot represent any equity equivalent to no off-chain equity certificate assigned, making the participation of the participant meaningless .

In an embodiment, the calling conditions of the smart contract may include: a third off-chain equity certificate held by the off-chain object is frozen, and the frozen off-chain equity certificate is sufficient for the allocation instruction Respond. By freezing the third off-chain equity certificate held by the off-chain object before calling the smart contract, this part of off-chain equity certificate can be locked in advance, so that even if the off-chain object refuses to allocate the first The off-chain equity certificate or the off-chain equity certificate held is not enough to complete the distribution, and the distribution operation can also be smoothly performed based on the frozen third-chain off-chain equity certificate.

In an embodiment, if the off-chain object distributes the first off-chain equity certificate to the participant according to the allocation instruction, the off-chain object may resume the holding of the third off-chain equity certificate. If the off-chain object does not assign the first off-chain equity certificate to the participant, the smart contract used to assign the off-chain equity certificate may send a mandatory allocation instruction to the manager of the third off-chain equity certificate To obtain the first off-chain equity certificate from the third off-chain equity certificate and distribute it to the participants. Among them, the response of the off-chain object to the allocation instruction can be monitored by the blockchain node. For example, the response can be transmitted to the blockchain by the aforementioned oracle machine node to ensure the accuracy of its message; or the oracle machine node will After the above response situation is transmitted to the blockchain, the smart contract for distributing off-chain equity vouchers can automatically determine whether the off-chain object allocates the first off-chain equity voucher to the participants, and automatically send the above Mandatory allocation instructions.

FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of predicting an event result according to an exemplary embodiment. As shown in FIG. 2, it is assumed that the user A wishes to participate in the prediction of the result for the event B, and the user A can input the prediction result through the mobile phone 21 with the client installed. The prediction result can be obtained by user A in any way, for example, by user A performing big data analysis on historical data through a server not shown in FIG. 2, or for example, by user A based on his own experience, which is not described in this specification. Limitation.

The device 22 is configured as a blockchain node in the blockchain, and the device 22 can receive the prediction result sent by the mobile phone 21; based on the logged-in account on the client running the mobile phone 21, the prediction result can be determined as coming from the user A. Of course, the mobile phone 21 may also send the above prediction results to other blockchain nodes in the blockchain. The processing process of these blockchain nodes is similar to that of the device 22, and reference may be made to the description of the device 22 in this specification. And other users can also predict the result of Event B and send it to device 22 or other blockchain nodes through their mobile phones or other electronic devices. The processing process of these users is similar to that of User A. You can refer to this manual for details. A description of user A.

The device 22 can agree on the prediction result input by the user A in the blockchain, so that the prediction result is released to the blockchain after passing the consensus to be recorded in the blockchain's distributed database, that is, "on-chain" . This specification does not limit the type of consensus algorithm used; for example, when the block chain where the device 22 is located is an alliance chain or a public chain, the device 22 can be based on algorithms such as PBFT (Practical Byzantine Fault Tolerance). Other blockchain nodes initiate consensus, and after the consensus is passed, the prediction result is published to the blockchain, so that it is recorded in the blockchain's distributed database; for another example, when the blockchain where device 22 is located is In the public chain, the device 22 can compete with other blockchain nodes for bookkeeping rights based on the POW (Proof of Work, Proof of Work) algorithm, POS (Proof of Stake, Proof of Stake) algorithm, or other algorithms, and obtain the bookkeeping by The right blockchain node records transaction data into the corresponding block, and when the transaction containing the prediction result input by user A is recorded, the prediction result can be recorded in the blockchain's distributed database.

The blockchain can include a predictor node 23, which can obtain data off-chain (that is, outside the blockchain) and transfer the data off-chain into the blockchain. For example, the oracle node 23 can obtain the actual result of event B from the off-chain, and publish the actual result to the blockchain for recording in the blockchain's distributed database, that is, "on-chain".

In order to determine whether the predicted result input by user A matches the actual result, especially to avoid human intervention during the processing process and ensure accuracy and effectiveness, a smart contract can be created on the blockchain in advance. A function logic is defined for determining the matching between the prediction result and the actual result. The function logic can automatically compare the prediction result input by the user A with the actual result of the event B passed by the oracle node 23, so that the comparison result is objective. ,accurate.

In one embodiment, a smart contract can be called by a transaction on the blockchain or other smart contracts to trigger its automatic implementation of related functional logic, such as the functional logic described above for determining the matching between predicted results and actual results. Wait. The device 22 may issue a transaction in the blockchain or call other smart contracts to implement the above-mentioned smart contract; or, it may call the above-mentioned smart contract by other blockchain nodes, and this specification does not limit this. After being called, the above-mentioned smart contract can be run on the device 22 to automatically implement the above-mentioned functional logic.

In order to facilitate understanding, the functional logic implemented by the smart contract mentioned in the embodiment shown in FIG. 2 will be described in detail below with reference to FIGS. 3 and 4.

FIG. 3 is a flowchart of functional logic implemented by a smart contract according to an exemplary embodiment. As shown in FIG. 3, the functional logic may include the following steps:

Step 302: Obtain the prediction result of user A from the blockchain.

In one embodiment, the prediction result of user A is recorded in a transaction on the blockchain, and the transaction can be marked as related to event B, so that the smart contract can find the transaction from the blockchain accordingly. And obtain the prediction result of user A. For example, the smart contract can obtain the prediction result input by user A by scanning the transaction record of a specific address or the transaction record of a specific serial number.

In one embodiment, the prediction results input by other users are also recorded on the blockchain, and the smart contract can obtain these prediction results in a similar manner, which will not be described one by one here.

Step 304: Obtain actual results from the blockchain.

In an embodiment, the actual result passed by the oracle 23 is recorded in a transaction on the blockchain, and the transaction can be marked as related to event B, so that the smart contract can be retrieved from the blockchain accordingly. Find the transaction and get the actual result. For example, the smart contract can obtain the actual result by scanning the transaction record of a specific address or the transaction record of a specific serial number.

Step 306: Compare the prediction result of the user A with the actual result of the event B, and determine whether the prediction result is consistent with the actual result.

In an embodiment, it is assumed that event B is the only event and does not include multiple sub-events, so that there are only two cases of the predicted result and the actual result: the result is consistent or the result is not consistent. The predicted results should have the same data structure as the actual results to facilitate comparison operations. For example, suppose event B is the traffic condition of a certain intersection during the rush hour. The predicted result and the actual result can include a field m. When the field m = 0, it means congestion, and when the field m = 1, it means no congestion. .

In step 308A, when the prediction result is consistent with the actual result, it is determined whether a guarantee certificate exists for the user A.

In step 310A, when a guarantee certificate exists, an allocation instruction 1 is sent to the institution C.

In step 310B, when there is no guarantee certificate, an allocation instruction 2 is sent to the institution C.

In an embodiment, the user A may configure a corresponding guarantee credential on the prediction result input by the user A, so as to guarantee the validity of the prediction result. For example, user A may have a corresponding account a outside the blockchain, and through the account a holds certain off-chain equity credentials, at least part of the off-chain equity credentials in the account a may be frozen as The above-mentioned security certificate; for example, the account a may temporarily transfer at least a part of the off-chain equity certificate into a dedicated voucher freezing account, or may add a frozen logo to the at least a part of the off-chain equity certificate in the account a, This specification does not limit this. In this embodiment, the guarantee certificate is not necessary: if there is a guarantee certificate, the distribution instruction 1 can be sent to the institution C, so that the institution C allocates the off-chain equity certificate S1 to the user A, and if there is no guarantee certificate, it can be distributed to the institution C Send distribution instruction 2 so that the institution C assigns off-chain equity certificate S2 to user A; of which, the equity represented by off-chain equity certificate S1 should be greater than the equity represented by off-chain equity certificate S2 to indicate that the security certificate is provided to user A , And makes user A more off-chain equity credentials, which indicates that the user A's forecasting ability becomes stronger or the prediction accuracy increases. Among them, the interests represented by the off-chain equity certificates S1 and S2 can be fixed values, or the interests represented by the off-chain equity certificates S1 and S2 can be positively correlated with the interests represented by the security certificates, that is, the equity represented by the guarantee certificates The greater / more, the greater / more equity is represented by the off-chain equity certificates S1, S2.

In an embodiment, in order to prevent user A from publishing the prediction result of event B at random and ensuring that the prediction result is meaningful, a certain threshold may be set for participating user B's result prediction, such as requiring user A to provide a guarantee certificate. Therefore, in the case where there is a security certificate, the off-chain equity certificate S1 can be assigned to the user A. The off-chain equity certificate S1 is used to characterize a certain interest; and when there is no security certificate, the off-chain distribution to the user A The equity certificate S2 cannot characterize any equity, which is equivalent to not assigning any off-chain equity certificates, so the participation of user A will be meaningless.

In step 308B, when the prediction result is inconsistent with the actual result, it is determined whether a guarantee certificate exists for the user A.

Step 310C: When a security certificate exists, the security certificate is deducted.

In an embodiment, when the prediction result is inconsistent with the actual result, that is, user A's prediction of the result of event B is inaccurate or the prediction fails, user A can terminate holding the off-chain equity certificate corresponding to the guarantee certificate by deducting the guarantee certificate , Then the off-chain equity certificate held by user A is reduced to indicate that the prediction ability of user A is weakened or the prediction accuracy is reduced.

In an embodiment, the guarantee voucher corresponding to user A may have a management party, such as an account management system, and the smart contract may send a deduction instruction to the management party, so that the management party deducts the corresponding guarantee in response to the deduction instruction. certificate.

FIG. 4 is a flowchart of functional logic implemented by another smart contract according to an exemplary embodiment. As shown in FIG. 4, the functional logic may include the following steps:

Step 402: Obtain the prediction result of user A from the blockchain.

Step 404: Obtain actual results from the blockchain.

In an embodiment, steps 402 to 404 may refer to steps 302 to 304 shown in FIG. 3, and details are not described herein again.

Step 406: Compare the prediction result of the user A with the actual result of the event B, and determine whether the prediction result is completely consistent with the actual result.

In an embodiment, it is assumed that the event B includes multiple sub-events. If the prediction result of the user A accurately predicts all the sub-events, the prediction result is completely consistent with the actual result; and if the user A only accurately predicts part of the sub-events Result, or user A has only implemented predictions for some sub-events, then the prediction results may be partially consistent with the actual results; of course, it is possible that user A's predictions for all sub-events are incorrect, and the prediction results and the actual results are completely Not consistent.

In an embodiment, the predicted result and the actual result should have the same data structure, so as to facilitate the comparison operation. For example, suppose event B is the traffic condition of an intersection during the commute rush hour. The predicted results and actual results can include the fields m1 and m2 respectively. The m1 field represents the traffic conditions during the morning rush hour and m2 represents the traffic conditions during the evening rush hour , When the field m1 = 0 indicates congestion during the morning peak, when the field m1 = 1 indicates no congestion during the morning peak, when the field m2 = 0 indicates congestion during the late peak, and when the field m2 = 1, it indicates late No congestion during peak hours.

In step 408A, when the prediction result is completely consistent with the actual result, it is determined whether the user A has a guarantee certificate.

In step 410A, when a guarantee certificate exists, an allocation instruction 1 is sent to the institution C.

In step 410B, when there is no guarantee certificate, an allocation instruction 2 is sent to the institution C.

In an embodiment, step 408A, step 410A, and step 410B may refer to step 308A, step 310A, and step 310B shown in FIG. 3, and details are not described herein again.

Step 408B: when the prediction result is not completely consistent with the actual result, determine whether the prediction result is partially consistent with the actual result.

Step 410C, when the predicted result is completely inconsistent with the actual result, if there is a guarantee certificate, the guarantee certificate is deducted.

In an embodiment, similar to the embodiment shown in FIG. 3, the user A may configure a corresponding guarantee credential for the prediction result input by the user A to guarantee the validity of the prediction result. Then, when the prediction result is completely inconsistent with the actual result, that is, user A's prediction of the result of event B is inaccurate or the prediction fails, user A can be deducted from the guarantee certificate by deducting the guarantee certificate. Then, the user The number of off-chain equity certificates held by A is reduced to indicate that the user A's prediction ability is weakened or the prediction accuracy is reduced.

In step 410D, when the prediction result is consistent with the actual result, it is determined whether a guarantee certificate exists for the user A.

In step 412A, when a guarantee certificate exists, an allocation instruction 3 is sent to the institution C.

In step 412B, when there is no guarantee certificate, an allocation instruction 4 is sent to the institution C.

In an embodiment, similar to steps 410A-410B, when the prediction result is consistent with the actual result, it indicates that the user A has a certain degree of prediction ability. Therefore, for the labeling of this part of the prediction ability, and for the user A Incentive, you can send distribution instruction 3 or distribution instruction 4 to institution C, so that institution C allocates certain off-chain equity credentials to user A. In this embodiment, the guarantee certificate is not necessary: if a guarantee certificate exists, the off-chain equity certificate S3 can be assigned to the user A, and if there is no guarantee certificate, the off-chain equity certificate S4 can be assigned to the user A; In terms of equity, S1> S3> S4, S1> S2> S4.

In an embodiment, the rights and interests represented by the off-chain equity vouchers S1 and S3 may be corresponding fixed values, or the rights and interests represented by the off-chain equity vouchers S1 and S3 may be positively related to the rights and interests represented by the security vouchers, respectively. That is, when the equity represented by the security certificate is larger / more, the equity represented by the smart asset certificate S1, S3 is larger / more.

In an embodiment, in order to prevent user A from publishing the prediction result of event B at will and ensuring that the prediction result is meaningful, a certain threshold may be set for participating user B's result prediction, such as requiring user A to provide a guarantee certificate. Therefore, in the case where there is a security certificate, the off-chain equity certificate S3 can be assigned to the user A, and the off-chain equity certificate S3 is used to characterize a certain interest; and when there is no security certificate, the off-chain distribution to the user A The equity certificate S4 cannot characterize any equity, which is equivalent to not assigning any off-chain equity certificates, so the participation of user A will be meaningless.

In one embodiment, since user A can only be assigned to the corresponding off-chain equity certificate if the predicted result matches the actual result, the off-chain equity certificate held by user A can be used to characterize his forecast Ability or prediction accuracy, that is, when more off-chain equity certificates are held or the represented equity is greater, it indicates that the user A has a stronger prediction ability or a higher prediction accuracy.

Among them, user A can also use off-chain equity credentials for other purposes. For example, some blockchain nodes in the blockchain can play the role of anchor points, and can exchange the off-chain equity certificates held by user A into equivalent smart asset certificates, such as real estate certificates and securities certificates issued by the anchor point. , Stock certificates, deposit certificates, etc., this manual does not limit this. When the off-chain equity certificate is used to characterize the user's predictive ability, only the off-chain equity certificate is allowed to be converted into a smart asset certificate, and the smart asset certificate is restricted to be exchanged to an off-chain equity certificate; of course, if there is also a The first type of off-chain equity vouchers for prediction capabilities and the second type of off-chain equity vouchers that are not used to characterize the user's prediction capabilities can limit the conversion of smart asset vouchers to the first type of off-chain equity vouchers and allow off-chain equity vouchers Converted to the second type of off-chain equity certificate.

In the embodiment shown in Figure 3-4, when institution C receives the allocation instructions 1 to 4, the off-chain equity certificates S1 to S4 may not be allocated to user A for various reasons. For example, institution C holds Some off-chain equity certificates are insufficient to respond to distribution instructions 1 to 4 (ie, the off-chain equity certificates held by Institution C are less / less than the off-chain equity certificates S1 to S4) or other reasons. In order to avoid the above situation, to ensure that user A can obtain the off-chain equity vouchers S1 to S4 smoothly, before initiating the prediction for event B, it can first determine that institution C will freeze at least part of the off-chain equity vouchers held, for example, it can freeze At a designated management party (such as a third-party financial platform), and the oracle node 23 can transfer the corresponding frozen result into the blockchain, the above-mentioned smart contract can be executed after scanning the frozen result as shown in Figure 3 or The processing logic shown in FIG. 4 may not be executed otherwise. After the allocation instructions 1 to 4 are sent to the institution C, the oracle node 23 can transfer the allocation of the off-chain equity certificates S1 to S4 by the institution C to the blockchain, and the device 22 can call the off-chain equity certificates Assigned smart contract. The smart contract can send a mandatory allocation instruction to the above-mentioned management party, so that the management party can unfreeze the frozen off-chain equity certificate and assign the corresponding off-chain equity certificate to user A. This process is not subject to the organization. C bound.

FIG. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of a device according to an exemplary embodiment. Please refer to FIG. 5. At the hardware level, the device includes a processor 502, an internal bus 504, a network interface 506, a memory 508, and a non-volatile memory 510. Of course, it may also include hardware required by other services. The processor 502 reads the corresponding computer program from the non-volatile memory 510 into the memory 508 and then runs it to form an event prediction device on a logical level. Of course, in addition to the software implementation, one or more embodiments of this specification do not exclude other implementations, such as a logic device or a combination of software and hardware, etc. That is to say, the execution body of the following processing flow is not limited to each A logic unit can also be a hardware or logic device.

Please refer to FIG. 6. In a software implementation, the event prediction device is applied to a blockchain node; the device may include:

The release determination unit 61 determines that a prediction result input by a participant for a specified event is released to the blockchain, and an input time of the prediction result is earlier than an occurrence time of an actual result of the specified event;

The first contract invoking unit 62 invokes a smart contract for evaluating a prediction situation, where the smart contract is used to read the prediction result and the actual result, and compare the prediction result with the actual result, According to the comparison result, an allocation instruction is sent to the off-chain object, and the allocation instruction is used to instruct the off-chain object to allocate a first off-chain equity certificate to the participant.

Optional,

The actual result is read from the blockchain by the smart contract, and the actual result is published on the blockchain by a oracle node in the blockchain;

Alternatively, the actual result is read from the blockchain by the smart contract, and the actual result is published by any blockchain node in the blockchain to the blockchain after consensus .

Optionally, the specified event includes one or more sub-events, and the prediction result is used to separately perform a result prediction on the one or more sub-events; wherein the smart contract is used to perform the prediction on When the result predictions of the one or more sub-events are correct, the allocation instruction is sent to the off-chain platform.

Optionally, the designated event includes multiple sub-events; the size of the equity corresponding to the first off-chain equity certificate is positively related to the proportion of the sub-events accurately predicted by the prediction result in the multiple sub-events.

Optional, also includes:

The freezing determination unit 63 determines that the second off-chain equity certificate held by the participant is frozen as a guarantee certificate for guaranteeing the validity of the predicted result;

Wherein, the smart contract is used to send a deduction instruction to the manager of the guarantee voucher if the predicted result does not match the actual result, so as to release the participant's holding relationship to the guarantee voucher .

Optionally, the size of the equity represented by the first off-chain equity certificate is positively related to the size of the equity represented by the security certificate.

Optionally, the smart contract is used to determine that the prediction result corresponding to the participant is invalid when the participant does not have corresponding guarantee credentials.

Optionally, the first off-chain equity certificate includes at least one of the following: member points, coupons, exchange coupons, and discount coupons.

Optionally, the calling conditions of the smart contract include: the third off-chain equity certificate held by the off-chain object is frozen, and the frozen off-chain equity certificate is sufficient to respond to the allocation instruction.

Optional, also includes:

A second contract invoking unit 64 invokes a smart contract for allocating off-chain equity vouchers when the off-chain object does not assign the first off-chain equity voucher to the participant, so that the The smart contract that assigns the off-chain equity certificate sends a mandatory allocation instruction to the manager of the third off-chain equity certificate to obtain the first off-chain equity certificate from the frozen third-chain equity certificate and allocates it To the participants.

The system, device, module, or unit described in the foregoing embodiments may be specifically implemented by a computer chip or entity, or a product with a certain function. A typical implementation device is a computer, and the specific form of the computer may be a personal computer, a laptop computer, a cellular phone, a camera phone, a smart phone, a personal digital assistant, a media player, a navigation device, an email sending and receiving device, and a game control Desk, tablet computer, wearable device, or a combination of any of these devices.

In a typical configuration, a computer includes one or more processors (CPUs), input / output interfaces, network interfaces, and memory.

Memory may include non-persistent memory, random access memory (RAM), and / or non-volatile memory in computer-readable media, such as read-only memory (ROM) or flash memory (flash RAM). Memory is an example of a computer-readable medium.

Computer-readable media includes both permanent and non-persistent, removable and non-removable media. Information can be stored by any method or technology. Information may be computer-readable instructions, data structures, modules of a program, or other data. Examples of computer storage media include, but are not limited to, phase change memory (PRAM), static random access memory (SRAM), dynamic random access memory (DRAM), other types of random access memory (RAM), and read-only memory (ROM), electrically erasable programmable read-only memory (EEPROM), flash memory or other memory technologies, read-only disc read-only memory (CD-ROM), digital versatile disc (DVD) or other optical storage, Magnetic tape cartridges, magnetic disk storage, quantum memory, graphene-based storage media, or other magnetic storage devices or any other non-transmission media can be used to store information that can be accessed by computing devices. As defined herein, computer-readable media does not include temporary computer-readable media, such as modulated data signals and carrier waves.

It should also be noted that the terms "including," "including," or any other variation thereof are intended to encompass non-exclusive inclusion, so that a process, method, product, or device that includes a series of elements includes not only those elements but also Other elements not explicitly listed, or those that are inherent to such a process, method, product, or device. Without more restrictions, the elements defined by the sentence "including a ..." do not exclude the existence of other identical elements in the process, method, product or equipment including the elements.

The specific embodiments of the present specification have been described above. Other embodiments are within the scope of the following claims. In some cases, the actions or steps recited in the claims may be performed in a different order than in the embodiments and the desired result may still be achieved. In addition, the processes depicted in the figures do not necessarily require the particular order shown or sequential order to achieve the desired results. In some embodiments, multitasking and parallel processing are also possible or may be advantageous.

The terminology used in one or more embodiments of this specification is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only, and is not intended to limit one or more embodiments of this specification. The singular forms "a," "the," and "the" used in one or more embodiments of this specification and the appended claims are also intended to include the plural forms unless the context clearly indicates otherwise. It should also be understood that the term "and / or" as used herein refers to and includes any or all possible combinations of one or more of the associated listed items.

It should be understood that although the terms first, second, third, etc. may be used to describe various information in one or more embodiments of the present specification, the information should not be limited to these terms. These terms are only used to distinguish the same type of information from each other. For example, without departing from the scope of one or more embodiments of the present specification, the first information may also be referred to as second information, and similarly, the second information may also be referred to as first information. Depending on the context, the word "if" as used herein can be interpreted as "at" or "when" or "in response to determination".

The above descriptions are merely preferred embodiments of one or more embodiments of the present specification, and are not intended to limit one or more embodiments of the present specification. Wherever within the spirit and principle of one or more embodiments of the present specification, Any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement, etc. should be included in the protection scope of one or more embodiments of this specification.

Claims

An event prediction method applied to a blockchain node; the method includes:

Determining that the prediction result input by a participant for a specified event is published to the blockchain, and the input time of the prediction result is earlier than the occurrence time of the actual result of the specified event;

Invoking a smart contract for evaluating a prediction situation, the smart contract is used to read the prediction result and the actual result, and compare the prediction result with the actual result to go out of the chain according to the comparison result The object sends an allocation instruction, and the allocation instruction is used to instruct the off-chain object to allocate a first off-chain equity certificate to the participant.
The method according to claim 1,

The actual result is read from the blockchain by the smart contract, and the actual result is published on the blockchain by a oracle node in the blockchain;

Alternatively, the actual result is read from the blockchain by the smart contract, and the actual result is published by any blockchain node in the blockchain to the blockchain after consensus .
The method according to claim 1, wherein the designated event includes one or more sub-events, and the prediction result is used to separately predict the result of the one or more sub-events; wherein the smart contract is used to When the prediction result is correct for the result prediction of the one or more sub-events, the allocation instruction is sent to the off-chain platform.
The method according to claim 1, wherein the designated event comprises a plurality of sub-events; the size of the equity corresponding to the first off-chain equity certificate is positively related to the sub-event accurately predicted by the prediction result among the plurality of sub-events Proportion.
The method of claim 1, further comprising:

Determining that the second off-chain equity certificate held by the participant is frozen as a guarantee certificate used to guarantee the validity of the predicted result;

Wherein, the smart contract is used to send a deduction instruction to the manager of the guarantee voucher if the predicted result does not match the actual result, so as to release the participant's holding relationship to the guarantee voucher .
The method according to claim 5, wherein the size of the equity represented by the first off-chain equity certificate is positively correlated with the size of the equity represented by the security certificate.
The method according to claim 5, wherein the smart contract is used to determine that the prediction result corresponding to the participant is invalid when the participant does not have a corresponding guarantee certificate.
The method according to claim 1, wherein the first off-chain equity certificate comprises at least one of the following: member points, coupons, exchange coupons, and discount coupons.
The method according to claim 1, the calling condition of the smart contract comprises: a third off-chain equity certificate held by the off-chain object is frozen, and the frozen off-chain equity certificate is sufficient for the third-chain off-chain equity certificate Assign a command in response.
The method according to claim 9, further comprising:

Invoking a smart contract for allocating off-chain equity vouchers, said smart contract for allocating off-chain equity vouchers The manager of the third off-chain equity certificate sends a mandatory allocation instruction to obtain the first off-chain equity certificate from the frozen third-chain equity certificate and allocate it to the participant.
An event prediction device is applied to a blockchain node; the device includes:

The release determination unit determines that the prediction result input by the participant for a specified event is released to the blockchain, and the input time of the prediction result is earlier than the occurrence time of the actual result of the specified event;

The first contract calling unit invokes a smart contract for evaluating a prediction situation, and the smart contract is used to read the prediction result and the actual result, and compare the prediction result with the actual result to According to the comparison result, an allocation instruction is sent to the off-chain object, and the allocation instruction is used to instruct the off-chain object to allocate the first off-chain equity certificate to the participant.
The device according to claim 11,

The actual result is read from the blockchain by the smart contract, and the actual result is published on the blockchain by a oracle node in the blockchain;

Alternatively, the actual result is read from the blockchain by the smart contract, and the actual result is published by any blockchain node in the blockchain to the blockchain after consensus .
The device according to claim 11, wherein the specified event comprises one or more sub-events, and the prediction result is used to separately perform result prediction on the one or more sub-events; wherein the smart contract is used to When the prediction result is correct for the result prediction of the one or more sub-events, the allocation instruction is sent to the off-chain platform.
The device according to claim 11, wherein the designated event includes multiple sub-events; the size of the equity corresponding to the first off-chain equity certificate is positively related to the sub-event accurately predicted by the prediction result among the multiple sub-events Proportion.
The apparatus according to claim 11, further comprising:

A freezing determination unit, which determines that the second off-chain equity certificate held by the participant is frozen as a guarantee certificate for guaranteeing the validity of the predicted result;

Wherein, the smart contract is used to send a deduction instruction to the manager of the guarantee voucher if the predicted result does not match the actual result, so as to release the participant's holding relationship to the guarantee voucher .
The device according to claim 15, the size of the equity represented by the first off-chain equity certificate is positively related to the size of the equity represented by the security certificate.
The device according to claim 15, wherein the smart contract is used to determine that the prediction result corresponding to the participant is invalid when the participant does not have a corresponding guarantee certificate.
The device according to claim 11, wherein the first off-chain equity certificate comprises at least one of the following: member points, coupons, exchange coupons, and discount coupons.
The device according to claim 11, the calling condition of the smart contract comprises: the third off-chain equity certificate held by the off-chain object is frozen, and the frozen off-chain equity certificate is sufficient for the third-chain off-chain equity certificate Assign a command in response.
The apparatus according to claim 19, further comprising:

The second contract invoking unit invokes a smart contract for distributing off-chain equity vouchers when the off-chain object does not allocate the first off-chain equity vouchers to the participants, so that the The smart contract of the off-chain equity certificate sends a mandatory allocation instruction to the manager of the third off-chain equity certificate to obtain the first off-chain equity certificate from the third off-chain equity certificate and distribute it to The parties.
An electronic device includes:

processor;

Memory for storing processor-executable instructions;

The processor executes the executable instruction to implement the event prediction method according to any one of claims 1-10.