WO2013084268A1

WO2013084268A1 - Resource allocation method by means of coordination among different entities

Info

Publication number: WO2013084268A1
Application number: PCT/JP2011/006877
Authority: WO
Inventors: 光一朗飯島; 孝史野口; 恭福本; 平澤　茂樹
Original assignee: 株式会社日立製作所
Priority date: 2011-12-09
Filing date: 2011-12-09
Publication date: 2013-06-13
Also published as: CN103959322A; JP5822948B2; CN103959322B; JPWO2013084268A1

Abstract

The invention pertains to a method of continuously providing services by resource allocation done by means of coordination among multiple business entities, said coordination pertaining to the providing of infrastructure services such as electric power, water and rail transport, said services being provided by the business entities. In a resource allocation method in which, in response to an allocation request, whether to accept or reject said request is assessed on an individual basis by the entity that has received same, and reduction quantity and desirability are determined through negotiation, determining the request recipient that will accomplish the allocation, and determining the request method are problems. Particular problems addressed are high-precision estimation of: an assessment criterion for allocation by different business entities; and a possible allocation method. Infrastructure service usage plans and infrastructure service supply plans are shared among multiple business entities. If a resource shortage occurs, a deadline for solving same by allocation is computed. In accordance with the length of time until the deadline, the request recipient and the allocation method are changed, thereby predicting the likelihood of a change in a plan of another business entity.

Description

Resource interchange method by cooperation between different entities

The present invention relates to a system linkage method between a plurality of business entities. In particular, the present invention relates to a method for continuously providing services through resource interchange through cooperation between operators regarding the provision of infrastructure services such as electric power, water supply, and railways.

In infrastructure services such as electric power, water, and railroads, it is possible to provide stable infrastructure services by predicting the demand and preparing a supply corresponding to the demand in advance. For example, in power supply, a power provider predicts a demand amount in a consumer in the jurisdiction and provides a stable power supply service by generating an amount of power that can meet the demand. As a system to achieve this, the attributes and past behaviors of service consumers and other service suppliers are accumulated, future demand is predicted from this information, and the supply volume that matches this demand is determined. . For example, in a power supply service, a power company collects customer information such as power consumption history and consumer attributes and stores it in a database, and uses this information to predict consumer usage behavior. To do. When predicting usage behavior, we extract the usage history in the current situation such as the day of the week and the climate from the past power usage history of the consumer, and for customers with no past power usage history Usage behavior is predicted using the history of consumers with similar characteristics.

In addition, with the recent increase in environmental awareness, not only preparing the supply volume that matches the predicted demand volume, but also making effective use of the facilities of each person in cooperation with customers and other service providers. Therefore, it is required to reduce the environmental load while maintaining a balance between supply and demand. In particular, in the power supply service, along with the spread of smart grids and distributed power sources, the amount of power generation is not increased due to the solar power generators and storage batteries held by consumers, and further, the suppression of power use by consumers (power saving). Therefore, it is required to keep power supply and demand. For this reason, it is necessary not only to predict usage behavior, but also to include supply behavior such as power saving and use of distributed power sources. When providing infrastructure services in cooperation with customers and other service providers, we ask customers and service providers to control infrastructure usage and increase supply, and customers and services that have received requests. The provider determines acceptance / rejection of the request according to each purpose. In order to realize highly accurate supply and demand adjustment, it is necessary to determine a cooperation method with the customer and other service providers while evaluating the possibility of acceptance / rejection in the above-described cooperation.

For example, Patent Document 1 is a method of solving the power shortage by sharing power among a plurality of power generation companies, which causes a power shortage from supply and demand plan information separately created by a plurality of companies. Select a business that has surplus power and can be accommodated, and determine the amount of power that can be accommodated.

According to the description in Patent Document 1, it is possible to create an accommodation plan in a situation where there are a plurality of businesses that need to be accommodated and a plurality of businesses that can be accommodated.

Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 2005-45887

However, in the technique described in Patent Document 1, an accommodation plan is drawn up based on a steady supply and demand plan set in advance. In addition, the set supply and demand plan does not fluctuate greatly, and can be accommodated by a business operator that is planned to have surplus, and cannot be accommodated by a business operator that is planned to have no surplus. It is assumed that.

For this reason, it is difficult to apply when the supply and demand situation changes greatly depending on the time and environment, or when the plan itself is changed in response to a request from a supply shortage operator to realize flexibility. . For example, in regional power management (CEMS: Community Energy Management System), each factory cooperates with the use of private power generators, solar power generators, and storage batteries owned by multiple factories in the region. When aiming to maintain a balance between supply and demand, the availability of supply and demand plans and availability depends on the production situation at each factory and the environmental conditions such as the weather, and the supply and demand plans are not necessarily fixed. For this reason, it is difficult to cope with the case where the supply-demand balance is disrupted due to a sudden situation such as an accident. In addition, it is difficult for the requestee to achieve the supply and demand adjustment by changing the supply and demand plan according to the situation at the time in response to the request for accommodation.

As described above, the technique disclosed in Patent Document 1 can deal with a case where the supply and demand plan changes according to the situation, and further, the case where the supply and demand plan is changed through a request-judgment negotiation to realize flexibility. Have difficulty.

An object of the present invention is a request for achieving a control target with high accuracy in a resource accommodation process in which an operator who has received a request for a resource accommodation request judges acceptance / rejection and decides a suppression amount and availability through negotiation. It is to decide how and where to go. In particular, the objective is to estimate the criteria for the accommodation of different operators and possible accommodation methods.

In order to solve the above-described problems, in the present invention, when a shortage of resources is detected in its own system, a business entity that performs resource interchange to the system of another business entity is searched. Here, by preparing behavior model information that is information that predicts the behavior of other business entities in advance, it is possible to determine which business entity should submit a request for resource interchange by searching for that information. To do. Resource interchange is realized by requesting resource interchange to the business entity that is determined in this way.

According to the present invention, it is possible to predict the acceptance / rejection attitude of each business operator for accommodation when maintaining the provision of infrastructure services through resource accommodation among a plurality of business operators.

It is a typical hardware block diagram in this invention. It is a typical software block diagram in this invention. It is an example of the processing flow (request source side processing) of the resource accommodation method according to the present invention. It is an example of the processing flow (request destination side process) of the resource accommodation method according to the present invention. It is an example of the detailed processing flow of the accommodation request method which concerns on this invention. It is an example of the detailed process flow of the estimation method of the accommodation action model which concerns on this invention. It is an example of the detailed process flow of the accommodation deadline calculation method which concerns on this invention. It is an example of the table which shows the resource utilization plan which concerns on this invention. It is an example of the table which shows the accommodation behavior model which concerns on this invention. It is a conceptual diagram which shows the electric power accommodation by the resource accommodation method of this invention. It is a conceptual diagram which shows the electric power accommodation by the resource accommodation method of this invention. It is a conceptual diagram which shows the transportation amount accommodation by the resource accommodation method of this invention. It is an example of an accommodation method list table.

First, an outline of the embodiment will be described.

<Overview>
In this embodiment, in a plurality of factories having a power supply facility such as a private power generator, a solar power generator, a storage battery, and a power consumption device such as a production facility or an office device, a reference value having a power usage amount, For example, when the maximum power usage contracted with a power company in advance is approached, multiple power can be accommodated by increasing the power supply or reducing the power usage to other companies that can accommodate power. Coordinate power supply and demand within a group of operators.

FIG. 10 is a conceptual diagram showing power supply and demand adjustment which is an example of an embodiment of the present invention. When a shortage of power is detected by one operator (1002) among multiple operators who share the power supply infrastructure 1010 such as a low-voltage distribution line or a private network, the other operator 1003 Then, it requests power interchange by reducing power usage and supplying power from power devices such as distributed power sources via the communication channel 1005, and tries to solve the power shortage. At that time, the business operator 1002 who is the client predicts the behavior of the

other business operators

1003 and 1004 in response to the power interchange request, and issues the request with priority to the business operator who is likely to respond to the request. Ensure power interchange. However, it is difficult to determine in advance whether it is possible for the business operator 1003 who has received the request to change the normal business plan or facility usage plan and execute the power interchange in response to the request for power interchange. It is necessary to predict the possibility of change of the plan in the past history and the negotiation process of the request.

More specifically, resource interchange will be realized as follows.

In this embodiment, the resources to be provided with infrastructure services, such as power and transportation capacity, between infrastructure service providers and consumers, or between multiple business entities such as between customers or between infrastructure service providers. Share the regular supply plan and usage plan, and if the resource shortage occurs, extract the business entity that can respond to flexibility by increasing supply or suppressing usage from the supply plan and usage plan Then, the business entity sends a request for accommodation to the business entity, and the business entity that receives the accommodation request determines whether to change the usage plan or supply plan based on the current business situation and respond to the accommodation. Respond to the service provider.

To create the accommodation request, increase / decrease of resource usage / supply amount based on the supply plan and usage plan of each shared business owner, or start / end of resource usage / supply, or change of end time, or The probability of accepting the request to change the maximum time of resource use / supply and the certainty level indicating the certainty of the acceptance probability are recorded. Among supply methods for eliminating supply shortage when supply is insufficient, the supply shortage is solved by requesting an accommodation method with high acceptance probability and high certainty factor.

On the other hand, since the acceptance probability for the request differs depending on the business situation and environment of the business owner who has received the request and cannot be shared in advance, the requesting service provider predicts the acceptance probability, and the prediction Is calculated and retained as the certainty factor. In order to calculate the acceptance probability and the certainty factor, the service provider calculates a time limit that makes it impossible to adjust the supply and demand with the flexibility of a plurality of business owners. Issue a request by selecting an accommodation method with low confidence among the accommodation methods that can be adjusted, and increase the confidence along with updating the acceptance rate according to the response from the business entity that is the requestee If the period up to the deadline is less than or equal to a certain period, a request is issued by selecting an accommodation method having a high acceptance probability and high certainty among the accommodation methods capable of adjusting supply and demand. Further, the certainty factor is subtracted for a method of accommodating a business operator who has not been requested for a certain period of time. As a result, when there is a long period of time during which supply and demand adjustment is possible due to the accommodation, it is possible to adjust the supply and demand through the accommodation by searching for the ease of accepting the accommodation by the plan change in each business entity that is the requestee. If the deadline is short, it asks for accommodation that is surely accepted and easy to adjust supply and demand.

For example, when the power supply and demand in a region is adjusted by requesting power saving to a business operator such as a factory in the CEMS, each factory discloses the power usage plan for each business such as production to the CEMS. Aims to solve the power shortage by requesting a decrease in the maximum power usage for each business, a change in the start / end time of the business, or a change in the power usage peak time zone for a power shortage at a specific time. The business operator who has received the request determines whether the request is executable and determines whether the request is accepted or rejected in consideration of the possibility of affecting the entire business, and responds to the CEMS. Based on the response from the operator, the CEMS is the one of the accommodation methods requested in the reduction of the maximum power usage, the change of the start / end time of the work, or the change of the peak hours of power use. Update acceptance probability and increase corresponding confidence. In the deadline from the adjustment of power supply and demand through cooperation between business entities in the region to the transition to other supply and demand adjustment methods such as requests for accommodation to other regions, requests for supply to the upper power system, or emergency measures such as planned power outages Accordingly, when the time limit is long, a request is made for an accommodation method with a low certainty factor, and when the time limit is short, a request is made for an accommodation method with a high acceptance probability and the certainty factor.

In order to achieve the above items, this embodiment has the following configuration. A resource interchange method between multiple business entities using a computer, and predicts the acceptability of other business entities for resource interchange when there is a shortage of resources. The business entity that is the requester of resource accommodation and the accommodation method are selected from the height of the resource, and the business entity that is the requester of resource accommodation evaluates the feasibility of the accommodation method and the impact on the business of the accommodation. , Determining whether the accommodation request can be executed, and responding to the requester whether the execution is possible, and each business entity performs either or both of its own resource utilization plan and resource supply plan according to the request contents and the response. change.

Further, in the method of predicting acceptability, means for sharing a resource use / supply plan among the plurality of operators, means for estimating an acceptance probability of change of the use / supply plan, and estimation of the probability Means for calculating the certainty, and means for generating the utilization and supply plan change method capable of receiving the necessary resource interchange from the utilization and supply plan when the resource supply and demand is imbalanced; The belief according to the means for obtaining a time until determining whether the resource imbalance has been resolved, the use supply plan change acceptance probability, the certainty of the possibility estimation, and the length of the time A means for issuing a request for a low-accuracy accommodation method, a change acceptance probability of the utilization supply plan, a certainty factor of the possibility estimation, and a high probability of change acceptance and the certainty factor according to the length of the time limit Means to issue a request for accommodation method , Comprising a.

<Detailed explanation>
Next, details of the present embodiment will be described.
FIG. 1 is a hardware configuration diagram according to the present invention.
The service provider A system 137 is a system group owned by the service provider A, and the service provider B system 101 is a system group owned by the service provider B, and is connected by a wide area communication network 156. Here, in FIG. 1, the system is configured by the systems of two business operators, the business operator A system 137 and the business operator B system 101, but a larger number of business operator systems may be included.

The business operator A system 137 is a set of systems owned by the business operator A and used and supplied with infrastructure services such as power supply and use. The service management server 142, the cooperation management server 168, and the monitoring control server group 140 are provided. , 141, controller groups 138, 139, and

power device groups

157, 158, 159.

The service management server 142 is a computer for monitoring excess and deficiency of resources in the infrastructure service, and planning and transmitting control plans for the lower-level monitoring

control server groups

140 and 141. The CPU 145, the secondary storage 147, and the main storage 146 The input / output device 144 and the communication device 143. A program for the resource accommodation method is stored in the main memory 146 and the secondary memory 147, and is executed by the CPU 147.

Further, the communication device 143 cooperates with the cooperation management server 168 and the monitoring

control server groups

140 and 141. The input / output device 170 is a device for the operator to operate the service management server 142, check the execution result, and update the program. The input / output device 170 may be a user interface device such as a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, or a CD drive. The data input / output device may be used.

The cooperative management server 168 is a computer that generates a request for resource interchange of infrastructure services with the business operator B system 101 and predicts the behavior of other business operators such as business operator B. This server is also used on the side receiving the request. In this case, the operation shown in FIG. 4 is executed.

The CPU 171, the secondary storage 173, the main storage 172, the input / output device 170, and the communication device 169 are configured. A program for the resource accommodation method is stored in the main memory 172 and the secondary memory 173 and executed by the CPU 171. Further, the communication device 169 cooperates with the business operator B system 101 via the service management server 142 and the wide area communication network 156. The input / output device 170 is a device for the operator to operate the cooperation management server 168, check the execution result, and update the program. The input / output device 170 may be a user interface device such as a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, or a CD drive. The data input / output device may be used.

The monitoring

control server groups

140 and 141 are computers that perform monitoring control related to the infrastructure service in cooperation with the controller groups 138 and 139, and include a plurality of monitoring control servers corresponding to the target range of the monitoring control. Here, the configuration includes a plurality of monitoring control servers, but the configuration may include only a single monitoring control server 141. The monitoring control server 141 includes a CPU 150, a secondary storage 152, a main storage 151, an input / output device 149, and a communication device 148. Based on the plan from the service management server 142, monitoring control for the controller groups 138 and 139 is executed. Monitoring control programs are stored in the secondary storage 152 and the main storage 151 and executed by the CPU 150. The communication device 148 cooperates with the service management server 142 via the LAN, receives the monitoring results from the controller groups 138 and 139, and transmits a control instruction. The input / output device 149 is a device for the operator to operate the monitoring control server, check the execution result, and update the program. The input / output device 149 may be a user interface device such as a keyboard, mouse, or touch panel, or may be a CD drive or the like. A data input / output device may be used.

The controller groups 138 and 139 are control devices that control and measure the

power device groups

157, 158, and 159, and include a plurality of controllers corresponding to the power devices to be controlled. Here, the configuration is made up of a plurality of controllers. However, a configuration with only a single controller 139 may be used, or a configuration in which the controller is not placed and the monitoring control server 141 directly controls the

power device groups

157, 158, and 159 may be used. . The controller 139 includes a CPU 154, a main memory 153, and a communication device 155, and the CPU 154 executes a control program stored in the main memory 153. Further, the communication device 155 cooperates with the monitoring control server 141 via the LAN and controls the power device group.

The

power device groups

157, 158, and 159 are devices for supplying or using infrastructure services such as power, and may be power supply facilities such as thermal power generators, solar power generators, storage batteries, substation devices, It may be a power transmission / distribution facility such as a transformer or a switch, or a power utilization device such as a production facility, an air conditioner, or a home appliance.

The business operator B system 101 and other business operator systems have the same hardware configuration as the business operator A system 137.

FIG. 2 shows a software configuration executed in the hardware configuration shown in FIG.
In the business operator A system 137, on the service management server 142, a plan deadline management 201, a service level management 202, and a plan operation DB 203 are executed as software. The service level management 202 manages the planning of work executed by the business operator A system 137 and the supply and use status of infrastructure. For example, if the company is a factory, it manages production operations and infrastructure service utilization plans there. The plan deadline management 201 calculates a deadline for determining the start of the plan as a time constraint for execution on the business plan. The operation management DB 203 includes a controller group 138, 139 and a

power device group

157, 158, 159 collected in cooperation with the monitoring control server 141 and the business plan drafted by the service level management 202, and the power etc. Accumulate measurement results of infrastructure services.
On the cooperation management server 168, interchange request management 204, model estimation 205, and other business operator model DB 206 are executed as software. The accommodation request management 204 performs selection of resource accommodation request destinations for other businesses including the business operator B, generation of request contents, transmission of requests, and reception of responses. Since the model estimation 205 is used for the request destination selection and the request content generation in the communication request management 204, the behavior of the other business operator in response to the accommodation request is estimated from the information stored in the other business model DB 206. The other company model DB 206 accumulates the results of interchange requests with other companies in the past, and accumulates the content estimated by the model estimation 205 as the other company model.
On the monitoring control server 141, the monitoring control of the controller groups 138 and 139, the report to the service management server 142, the monitoring control 207 for receiving and executing the plan from the service management server 142, and the controller group 138 by the monitoring control 207 , The monitoring control DB 208 for accumulating 139 monitoring control results. Other monitoring control servers such as the monitoring control server 140 have the same configuration.
On the controller 138, measurement / control 209 for measuring the sensor value of the electric device group and controlling the actuator is executed.
Next, processing contents of the plan deadline management 201, service level management 202, interchange request management 204, and model estimation 205 will be mainly described with reference to FIGS.

FIG. 3 is an outline of a resource accommodation method, and is a processing flow of a requester who receives resource accommodation from another business operator.

First, step 301 is a process for detecting a shortage of resources. In the service level management 202, the resource usage amount and the available amount are compared, and if the difference is below a certain value, the processing from step 302 is executed. Here, the resource usage is a plan for the power usage based on the business plan of each operator. For example, it may be the amount of power usage for each hour, or may be a total of power usage plans of other businesses disclosed in advance by other businesses. In addition, the available amount may be a maximum power usage amount contracted in advance with a power provider if it is a power service recipient, or may be a target value of the power usage amount or power saving amount planned by itself. Further, if the power supplier itself is a power provider or the like, the maximum power supply amount obtained by summing up the power generator capabilities may be used.

Next, step 302 is a process for drafting a resource shortage elimination plan. The service level management 202 drafts a business plan for solving the resource shortage, and drafts a control plan to be transmitted to the monitoring control server 141. Here, the said business plan is a plan for every time of operation | movement method of power supply apparatuses, such as a generator, and the operation method of power consumption apparatuses, such as a production facility.

Step 303 is a process for checking whether or not the resource shortage can be solved. The service level management 202 checks whether or not the resource shortage can be solved by the resource shortage elimination plan prepared in step 302. The resource use amount and the resource supply amount according to the resource shortage plan are calculated from the past history and the monitoring control history accumulated in the plan operation DB 203, and analyzed whether the resource shortage is solved. If the resource shortage cannot be resolved, the process from step 304 is performed.

Step 304 is a process for calculating a deadline for avoidance, the time when the resource shortage occurs, and the failure of the

power equipment group

157, 158, 159 when the resource shortage occurs and the influence on other operators is minimized. An avoidance process for suppressing the avoidance process is planned, and a time limit for starting the avoidance process is calculated.
At the time from the current time point to the deadline of the avoidance process, the interchange request management 204, the model estimation 205, and the other provider model DB 206 issue a request for resource interchange to another provider and attempt to solve the resource shortage.

Next, in step 305, in order to issue a resource accommodation request to another business operator, it is a process of acquiring the other business operator's accommodation behavior model from the other business operator model DB 206. The accommodation behavior model is information for predicting whether or not to respond to a request for resource accommodation such as reduction of power usage amount or increase of power supply amount. At least one power accommodation method is used. The amount of resource accommodation obtained, the acceptance probability of the request, and the certainty factor indicating the accuracy of prediction of the acceptance probability are included. Since the resource accommodation behavior model is set for each accommodation method, first, the accommodation method is identified using the accommodation method list shown in FIG. 13, and the resource accommodation behavior model is extracted based on the identified accommodation method. To do.

Step 306 is a process for drafting an accommodation plan that can solve the resource shortage by the model estimation 205, and based on the accommodation behavior model acquired in Step 305, the resource accommodation to other business operators that solve the resource shortage. Develop a plan. From the resource accommodation amount included in the resource accommodation behavior model, a request issuer and a resource accommodation method to be requested are extracted on the assumption that other operators respond to all requests.

Step 309 is a process of selecting the request destination and the accommodation method from the acceptance probability and the prediction accuracy in the model estimation 205 and the accommodation request management 204, one according to the acceptance probability and the certainty included in the accommodation behavior model. Select the above-mentioned business operator and the resource accommodation method.

Steps

310 and 311 are processes for issuing a request to the requested business operator in the flexible request management 204 and receiving the availability of accommodation as a response to the request from the requested business operator.

The processing of step 309, step 310, and step 311 is repeated until the time limit calculated in step 304 is reached (step 307), or resource shortage becomes possible (step 308).

In step 312, the model action 205 updates the accommodation behavior model from the contents of the request for accommodation in

steps

309 and 310 and the response contents in step 311, and stores them in the other operator model DB 206.

FIG. 4 is an outline of a resource accommodation method and is a processing flow of a request destination that receives a resource accommodation request from another business operator.

First, step 401 is processing for receiving a resource (power) accommodation request, and processing for receiving the resource accommodation request issued in step 310.
Step 402 is a process for creating an accommodation plan. A change in a business plan for realizing resource accommodation such as requested power and a change in the control plan to be transmitted to the monitoring control server 140 for realizing the business plan change are performed. Make a plan.

Step 403 is a process for analyzing the influence on the own business, and the service level management 202 is a process for analyzing the influence on the business caused by the resource interchange. For example, when realizing the resource accommodation with the operation of a private power generator, the cost increases due to fuel costs, etc., and when realizing the resource accommodation with power saving by stopping the power utilization facility such as a production facility, the production amount, etc. Analyze how many of the business goals are missed.

Step 404 is a process for calculating the start deadline of the accommodation plan, and the deadline for starting the work plan change and control plan change for realizing the resource accommodation is calculated by the plan deadline management 201.

Step 405 is a process for determining whether or not to allow the accommodation. The availability of the accommodation is determined from the influence on the business analyzed in Step 403 by the accommodation request management 201 and the start deadline calculated in Step 404. For example, if the start deadline has passed or the period until the start deadline is less than a certain value, the accommodation cannot be executed, and if the influence on the business is large, the accommodation is not executed. A decision is finally made.

Step 406 is a process of transmitting a response, and the availability determination determined in step 405 by the accommodation request management 201 is sent to the requesting provider. The response is received at step 311.
If the approval / disapproval determined in step 405 is acceptance, the control plan change is transmitted to the monitoring control server 140 in order to execute the accommodation plan prepared in step 402, thereby realizing resource accommodation for the request.

FIG. 5 is a process flow showing a resource accommodation request destination and a method for selecting an accommodation method, and is a detailed process flow of step 309.
First, step 501 is a process of acquiring acceptance probability and certainty from the resource accommodation behavior model, and is extracted as an accommodation method in the resource accommodation plan of the business operator extracted as a request destination in the resource accommodation plan drafted in step 306. The resource accommodation behavior model concerning the accommodation method is extracted, and the acceptance probability and the certainty degree are acquired.

Step 502 is a process for checking whether or not the time until the deadline is longer than a certain value. The time until the deadline until the avoidance process acquired at step 304 is compared with a threshold set in advance and the difference is calculated.

Step 503 is processing when the time until the deadline calculated in step 502 is longer than the threshold, and is processing for selecting an accommodation method with a low certainty factor from the accommodation behavior model. When the time until the deadline is long, an accommodation method with a low certainty factor is selected from the accommodation behavior models acquired in step 501. Here, as a method for selecting an accommodation method with a low certainty factor, only one interchange method with the lowest certainty factor may be selected from among the acquired accommodation behavior models, or the obtained interchange method may be selected as a certainty factor. It is possible to select a plurality of accommodation methods until the necessary resource accommodation amount is reached in the order of higher rankings, or to select an accommodation method with a low certainty of priority. Any method may be used.
Step 504 is a process for checking whether or not the time until the deadline is shorter than a certain value. The time until the deadline until the avoidance process acquired at step 304 is compared with a threshold set in advance and the difference is calculated.

Step 505 is a process when the time until the deadline calculated in Step 504 is shorter than the threshold, and is a process for selecting an accommodation method with a high certainty factor and acceptance probability. When the time until the deadline is long, a method with a high certainty factor and acceptance probability is selected from the flexible behavior model acquired in step 501. Here, as a method for selecting an accommodation method, an accommodation method having a certainty level of a certain value or higher is extracted from the obtained accommodation behavior model, and from the acceptance probability and the amount of accommodation by the resource accommodation method. An expected accommodation amount may be calculated, and an accommodation method that matches the required resource accommodation amount or is expected to be more than the resource accommodation amount may be selected, and the certainty factor may be used to predict the acceptance probability. Assuming that the probability is correct, the amount of multiplication of the certainty factor and the acceptance probability may be regarded as the execution probability of resource accommodation, and the expected accommodation amount may be calculated, or the certainty factor and the acceptance probability are high. Any method may be used as long as the accommodation method is preferentially selected.

FIG. 6 is a process flow diagram showing a method for estimating the resource accommodation behavior model, and is a detailed processing flow of updating the accommodation behavior model in Step 312.

First, step 601 is a process of acquiring request contents and response contents. For the request method and the interchange method requested in step 309 and step 310, and the request contents received in step 311 Whether the requested business operator has accepted or rejected is acquired.

If the requested business operator's response is acceptance (step 602), step 603 is a process for increasing the acceptance probability, and the acceptance probability corresponding to the requested accommodation method for the requested business operator. Is a process for calculating. The acceptance probability may be calculated by increasing the acceptance probability by a preset value and setting the acceptance probability to 1.0 when the acceptance probability exceeds 1.0. The probability may be calculated by holding the request history and dividing the number of times of acceptance by the number of previous requests from the request history, or any method that calculates the probability of acceptance increasing due to the number of responses of acceptance. The method is fine.

When the response of the requested business operator is acceptance (step 604), step 604 is a process for reducing the acceptance probability corresponding to the requested contents of the request destination, and the request relating to the business operator that is the request destination. This is a process of calculating the acceptance probability corresponding to the accommodation method. As the method of calculating the acceptance probability, the acceptance probability may be decreased by a preset value and the acceptance probability may be set to 0.0 when the acceptance probability is less than 0.0. The probability may be calculated by holding the request history and dividing the number of times of acceptance by the number of previous requests from the request history, or any method for calculating that the probability of acceptance decreases due to the lack of acceptance response The method is fine.

Next, step 605 is a process for increasing the certainty factor corresponding to the requested contents of the interchange, and increases the corresponding certainty factor regardless of the content of the response. Further, step 606 is a process of reducing the certainty factor other than the request destination accommodation method, and reduces the certainty factor of the request destination accommodation method that has not issued the request. As the method for increasing or decreasing the certainty factor, for example, the certainty factor may be increased or decreased by a predetermined small value set in advance. The flexibility of issuing requests frequently, or the confidence method of the latest request issue date and time is shorter than the current time, the reliability of the request method is less frequent, or the latest request issue date is the current request issue date Any method can be used as long as the reliability of the farther accommodation method can be calculated low.

FIG. 8 is an example of a table showing a power usage plan according to the resource accommodation method. Each company implements a resource interchange method by sharing the power usage plan shown in FIG. 8 among a plurality of companies and storing it in the other company model DB 206.

Column 801 “contractor name” is the name of the business operator, and indicates the business operator who makes and executes the plan. A column 802 “business type” is an attribute of the power usage plan, and indicates a type of business that uses power, such as production business and office business. A column 803 “time” indicates a time when power is used, and a column 804 “power usage” indicates a power amount used at the power usage time. FIG. 8 discloses and shares the amount of power used every hour among the operators.

Line 806 indicates that the power usage plan that the operator “Hitachi Sales Office” implements as “normal office work” from “2011/11/11 0: 00-1: 00” is “10”.

FIG. 9 is an example of a table showing an accommodation behavior model related to a resource accommodation method. Based on the power usage plan shared by each operator in FIG. 8, the probability of change of the power usage plan is predicted to obtain a flexible behavior model.

The column 901 “contractor name” is the name of the business operator similar to the column 801, and the column 902 “business type” is the type of business that uses power similar to the column 802.

Column 903 “start time” is a time at which power usage is started in the same business type of the same contractor in the power usage plan. A column 904 “change probability” is a predicted value of a probability that is accepted when a change request is made, such as moving the start time forward or backward, and a column 905 “confidence” indicates the change probability at the start time. It is a value indicating the probability of the predicted value.

Column 906 “End time” is a time at which power use ends in the same business type of the same contractor in the power use plan. Column 907 “Change Probability” is a predicted value of the probability of being accepted when the end time is moved forward, changed backwards, etc., and column 908 “Confidence” is the change probability at the end time. It is a value indicating the probability of the predicted value.

A column 909 “peak time” is a time at which the power usage amount is planned to be maximum in the power usage plan, and a column 910 “change probability” and a column 911 “confidence” correspond to the peak time change request. It is a value indicating the predicted value of the acceptance probability and its certainty.

Column 912 “peak usage” is the maximum power usage in the power usage plan, and column 913 “change probability” and column 914 “confidence” are requested to decrease or increase the peak usage This is a value indicating the predicted value and the certainty of the acceptance probability.

In FIG. 9, the acceptance probability and the certainty are treated as the same without distinguishing the increase and decrease of each planned value and the amount of change, but the acceptance probability depends on the direction of change such as increase or decrease. The certainty factor may be treated as another value, or may be treated as a probability distribution function having a value corresponding to the amount of change for which the acceptance probability is requested.

In FIGS. 8 and 9, the usage amount of electric power is planned and used as an accommodation behavior model. However, in the case of including an operator having electric power supply facilities such as a generator and a storage battery, the electric power supply amount is planned. Alternatively, it may be held as an accommodation behavior model.

FIG. 7 is a processing flow for acquiring a resource accommodation deadline, and is a detailed processing flow in step 304.

First, step 701 is a process for predicting a failure occurrence time due to a shortage of resources, comparing the resource use plan with the resource supply plan in infrastructure services such as power supply and use, and the use amount exceeds the supply amount or in advance. Predicts the time when a fault occurs when the margin, which is the difference between the set usage and supply, falls below. For power supply and usage, supply and compare the business plan and power usage plan that are shared in advance between operators and the power supply plan that is shared between the power operator and the power generation facility. Calculate the time when surplus power falls below a certain value and the supply voltage and frequency cannot be maintained, and a power failure is expected to occur.

Next, step 702 is a process for predicting a response time due to a resource accommodation request, and the time required to receive a response when a request is issued to another business operator is predicted from the past request history. As a prediction method, the past request history is held in the other operator model DB 206, and an average value of the difference between the request time and the response time for each operator may be used as a predicted value, or the request time of all the operators The average value of the difference in response time is a predicted value, and any method may be used as long as it is a method for predicting the time for receiving a response to a request.

Step 703 is a process for acquiring the failure avoidance process and the processing time, and acquires the process time of the avoidance process planned in Step 304. The time required to execute the avoidance process is calculated from the past history and the set value at the design time. When stopping power equipment in preparation for a power failure as the avoidance process, the maximum time required to stop each power equipment without causing a failure may be set as the processing time. When notifying the surrounding business operators of the occurrence of a power outage, the processing time is assumed to be the time required for each business operator to recognize the notification and prepare for the power outage.

Finally, step 704 is a process for calculating the final time of request issuance. Based on the response time for the resource accommodation request, the processing time for the avoidance process, and the predicted failure occurrence time, a resource accommodation request to another business operator is performed. The last time to issue is calculated. As a calculation method, an advance time corresponding to the avoidance process time is calculated as an avoidance process start time period from the expected failure occurrence time, and an advance time corresponding to the resource accommodation request from the avoidance process start time period is calculated as a resource accommodation time. Calculated as the request issue last time. Here, the calculation method is calculated by the reverse calculation from the predicted failure occurrence time. However, the past request history is held in the other operator model DB 206 and the first request is issued until the accommodation method is determined. The resource accommodation request issuance final time may be calculated from the average convergence time, or any method may be used as long as a subsequent request to another business operator does not lead to effective resource accommodation.

In this embodiment and FIG. 10, it was assumed that a plurality of operators acted in an autonomous and distributed manner to implement power interchange with each other. However, as shown in FIG. 11, the electric power company 1102 performs the electric power exchange method intensively, and requests electric power exchange to the

electric companies

1103, 1104, and 1105 that exist in the region 1101 and share the electric power infrastructure 1110 such as distribution lines. It is good also as a structure which eliminates the power shortage in the area by issuing.

According to the resource accommodation method of the present embodiment, when a normal business plan or facility use plan changes or when the plan is changed according to a request and the power interchange is executed, it can be obtained in the past history or request negotiation process. It is possible to predict the possibility of change of the plan from the response of the other business operator and to highly predict the flexibility of the other business operator. As a result, highly accurate power interchange can be realized.

Next, an outline of another embodiment will be described.

In the present embodiment, among a plurality of transportation companies that supply transportation services such as railways and buses, the number of transportation objects such as passengers and cargo increases more than planned and the transportation capacity is insufficient. In the case where the transportation force is reduced due to a sudden event such as a failure, the lack of transportation force is resolved by allowing transportation power to be interchanged among the plurality of transportation companies.

FIG. 12 is a conceptual diagram showing transportation capacity accommodation which is an example of another embodiment. Among the

railway operators

1202 and 1203 and the bus operator 1204 that provide passenger services between the same region and the same point, in the section of A station 1205 and B station 1206 where a certain operator (1202) provides passenger services If a malfunction occurs and passenger service cannot be provided, the railway operator 1203 or bus operator 1204, who can provide passenger service within the same section, will be able to provide passenger transportation by detour and increased transportation capacity by increasing the number of buses. Requests via communication channel 1211 to try to resolve lack of transport capacity and maintain passenger service levels. At that time, the railway operator 1202 as the client predicts the transport capacity of the

other operators

1203 and 1204 and the behavior for the request, and issues the request with priority to the operator who is highly likely to respond to the request. In this way, we can get transportation capacity quickly.

This method of requesting accommodation can be realized by a method similar to the resource accommodation method shown in FIGS. For example, in the case of an increase in passengers expected in advance, such as holding an event, it is possible to take a sufficiently long negotiation period. If a sudden and sufficient negotiation period cannot be taken, such as an accident, a transportation company with a high degree of certainty and acceptance probability can be requested to ensure that it can receive transportation capacity.

137: Company A system, 101: Company B system, 142: Service management server, 168: Cooperation management server, 140: Monitoring control server, 141: Monitoring control server, 139: Controller, 156: Wide area communication path, 157: Electric power equipment, 203: Operation management DB, 206: Other operator model DB, 208: Supervisory control DB

Claims

A resource interchange method for accommodating resources between multiple business entities,
It has a database that stores behavior model information, which is information that predicts the timing and amount of resources used by other business entities,
A detection step for detecting a shortage of resources;
As a result of detection, an acquisition step of acquiring the behavior model information from the database when resources are insufficient;
Based on the acquired behavior model, a specific step of identifying a business entity that performs resource accommodation for resolving the detected resource shortage,
Performing resource accommodation at the identified business entity;
A resource accommodation method characterized by comprising:
The resource accommodation method according to claim 1,
A deadline calculating step of calculating a deadline for avoiding the detected resource shortage;
In the resource accommodation method, the specifying step specifies the business entity based on the calculated time limit and the current time.
The resource accommodation method according to claim 2,
The behavior model information further includes accuracy information indicating the certainty of the behavior model information,
A resource accommodation method characterized in that, when the time until the deadline is longer than a predetermined length, the identifying step identifies a business entity having low accuracy information as an accommodation partner.
In the resource accommodation method according to claim 2 or 3,
The deadline calculating step is calculated based on a time when a resource shortage occurs and a response time when a request for accommodation of resources is made to the other business entity.
In the resource accommodation method of Claim 4,
The resource accommodation method, wherein the resource is an amount of electric power or a transportation amount in a transportation facility.
A resource accommodation server that is installed in a plurality of business entities and manages resource interchange between the business entities,
A database storing behavior model information, which is information that predicts the timing and amount of use by other business entities;
A detection device that detects a shortage of resources;
As a result of detection, when the resource is insufficient, the behavior model information is acquired from the database, and based on the acquired behavior model, the business entity that performs resource accommodation for resolving the detected resource shortage is specified. A cooperation management device that transmits resource accommodation request information to the resource accommodation server of the identified business entity;
A resource accommodation server comprising:
In the resource accommodation server according to claim 6,
The resource management server, wherein the cooperation management device calculates a time limit for avoiding the detected resource shortage, and identifies the business entity based on the calculated time limit and the current time.
In the resource accommodation server according to claim 7,
The behavior model information further includes accuracy information indicating the certainty of the behavior model information,
When the time until the deadline is longer than a predetermined length, the cooperation management device identifies a business entity with low accuracy information as an accommodation partner.
In the resource accommodation server according to claim 7 or 8,
The cooperation management apparatus calculates a resource accommodation server based on a time when a resource shortage occurs and a response time when the other business entity requests resource accommodation.
A resource interchange method between multiple business entities using a computer,
Predicting the acceptability of other business entities for resource accommodation in the event of a shortage of resources;
Selecting a business entity and an accommodation method as a request for resource accommodation from the high acceptability and high prediction accuracy;
By the computer of the business entity that is the requester of the resource accommodation, evaluating the feasibility of the accommodation method and the impact on the business by the accommodation, and determining whether or not the accommodation request can be executed;
A step of replying to the requester whether the execution is possible;
Each business entity changes one or both of its resource use plan and resource supply plan according to the request content and the response; and
A resource accommodation method characterized by comprising:
The resource accommodation method according to claim 10,
In the step of predicting the acceptability, a means for sharing the resource utilization and supply plan among the plurality of operators, and the probability of accepting the change of the utilization and supply plan are estimated,
A step of calculating a certainty factor of the probability estimation;
Generating a change method of the use and supply plan that can receive the necessary resource interchange from the use and supply plan when the resource supply and demand becomes imbalanced;
Obtaining a time until determining whether or not the resource imbalance is resolved;
Issuing a request for an accommodation method with a low certainty according to the change acceptance probability of the utilization supply plan, the certainty of the possibility estimation, and the length of the time limit;
Issuing a request for a change acceptance probability and a high flexibility method according to the change probability of the utilization plan, the certainty of the likelihood estimation, and the length of the time limit;
A resource accommodation method characterized by comprising:
The resource accommodation method according to claim 11,
The means for calculating the certainty factor of the probability estimation is:
Share a resource usage plan that includes at least resource usage by time and a resource supply plan that includes at least resource usage by time of day.
Aggregating acceptance probabilities for the resource usage plan and the resource supply plan or the change request of the resource supply plan,
Calculating the probability of the acceptance probability using at least one of the frequency of issuing the change request and the length of the period until the latest issue;
A resource accommodation method characterized by
The resource accommodation method according to claim 12,
The step to get the time limit is
Get the time when the resource imbalance needs to be resolved,
Predict response times for resource accommodation requests,
Obtaining the processing time of another resource imbalance avoidance method when the resource accommodation fails;
Calculating a final deadline for issuing a request to avoid resource imbalance through resource accommodation from the time when the membership fee is required, the response time, and the processing time of the another avoidance method;
A resource accommodation method characterized by
The resource accommodation method according to claim 13,
The step of issuing a request is
Obtain the time when the resource imbalance needs to be resolved,
Predict response times for resource accommodation requests,
Obtaining the processing time of another resource imbalance avoidance method when the resource accommodation fails;
Calculating a final deadline for issuing a request for avoiding a resource imbalance through resource accommodation, from the time when the avoidance is required, the response time, and the processing time of the another avoidance method;
A resource accommodation method characterized by
A method for transporting traffic between transport operators using a computer,
Predicting the possibility of accepting requests to increase the amount of transportation to other carriers when the supply and demand of the transportation amount is tight,
From the high acceptability and high prediction accuracy, select the transport company and the request method that is the request destination of the transport amount increase request,
The transport operator who is the requester of the transport amount increase request evaluates the feasibility of the increase in the transport amount and the influence of the increase in the transport amount on the other transport business of the transport operator, and Judge whether it is possible
Reply to the requester about the availability,
Each transportation company changes its transportation facility usage plan according to the contents of the request and the response.
A transportation amount accommodation method characterized by that.
A power interchange method between electric power companies, between an electric power company and an electric power consumer, or between electric power consumers using a computer,
When the difference between the amount of power used and the amount of power supplied, or the amount of power contracted is less than a certain value, increase the amount of power supplied to other power companies or request for power usage reduction to consumers Predicting acceptability,
From the high acceptability and the high prediction accuracy, select the power supplier or the customer and the request method to request the power supply increase or use reduction request,
The requesting power company evaluates the feasibility of the increase in supply amount and the impact on the power business due to the increase in supply amount, determines whether the power supply can be increased,
The customer who is the request destination evaluates the feasibility of the reduction in consumption and the effect of the reduction in consumption, determines whether the power consumption can be reduced,
Reply to the requester about the availability,
Each electric power company and the customer change their power sharing facilities and power utilization facility usage plans according to the contents of the request and the response.
A power interchange method characterized by the above.