CN103959322A - Resource allocation method by means of coordination among different entities - Google Patents
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- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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Abstract
The invention pertains to a method of continuously providing services by resource allocation done by means of coordination among multiple business entities, said coordination pertaining to the providing of infrastructure services such as electric power, water and rail transport, said services being provided by the business entities. In a resource allocation method in which, in response to an allocation request, whether to accept or reject said request is assessed on an individual basis by the entity that has received same, and reduction quantity and desirability are determined through negotiation, determining the request recipient that will accomplish the allocation, and determining the request method are problems. Particular problems addressed are high-precision estimation of: an assessment criterion for allocation by different business entities; and a possible allocation method. Infrastructure service usage plans and infrastructure service supply plans are shared among multiple business entities. If a resource shortage occurs, a deadline for solving same by allocation is computed. In accordance with the length of time until the deadline, the request recipient and the allocation method are changed, thereby predicting the likelihood of a change in a plan of another business entity.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to the intersubjective cooperative system method of a plurality of operation.Relate in particular to about the providing of the infrastructure services such as electric power, waterpipe, railway, the method for service is provided to continue to provide by the resource of the cooperation based between operator.
Background technology
In the infrastructure services such as electric power, waterpipe, railway, by predict its demand and prepare the supply corresponding with demand in advance, can provide stable infrastructure services.For example, in electric power is supplied with, electric power operator predicts the demand of the demander in administration, carries out meeting the generating of the amount of this demand, provides thus stable electric power to supply with service.As for realizing the system of this point, put aside demand for services person or other attribute or past of serving provider and take action, according to these information predictions demand in the future, the quantity delivered that decision and this demand meet.For example, at electric power, supply with in service, electric power operator collects the demander information such as electric power consumption resume or demander attribute and stores in database, utilizes the utilization action of these information prediction demanders.When prediction utilizes action, from the electric power of the demander in past, utilize and resume, extract the resume that utilize under the situation that approaches the present situations such as week or weather, in addition, for not having electric power in the past to utilize the demander of resume, utilize the resume of the demander with similar characteristics to predict utilization action.
And, raising along with current environment consciousness, not only prepare the quantity delivered being consistent with the demand doping, also require effectively to utilize by demander and other ISPs' coordination the equipment having separately, when keeping balance between supply and demand, reduce environmental pressure thus.Especially at electric power, supply with in service, along with popularizing of intelligent grid and decentralized power s, the solar generator keeping by demander or accumulator, the inhibition (economize on electricity) that the electric power of demander utilizes in addition can keep electricity supply and demand in the situation that not increasing generated energy.Therefore, not only need prediction to utilize action, the such supply action of utilization that also needs prediction to comprise economize on electricity or decentralized power s.When coordinating to provide infrastructures service by demander or other ISPs like this, demander or ISP are asked infrastructure utilization to suppress or supplied with increment, receive that the demander of request or ISP promising/refusing what ask according to various object judgements.When realizing high-precision supply and demand and adjust, need to the possibility of promising/refuse in evaluating coordination as above in, decision demander or other ISPs' coordination approach.
For example, patent documentation 1 is by carry out mutually the method that electric power circulates to eliminate power shortage between a plurality of generating operators, according to the supply and demand program information of being made respectively by a plurality of operators, for the operator that power shortage occurs, the selected operator who has electric power surplus, can circulate, and determine that its electric power circulation can energy.
According to the record of patent documentation 1, existing respectively under a plurality of operators' that need to accept the operator of circulation and can circulate situation, can make circulation plan.
Prior art document
Patent documentation
Patent documentation 1: TOHKEMY 2005-45887 communique
Summary of the invention
The problem that invention will solve
Yet in the technology of recording at patent documentation 1, the normal supply and demand program of setting of take is worked out circulation plan as basis in advance.In addition, the supply and demand program that prerequisite is set described in being does not carry out larger change, can circulate from being planned into the operator of surplus, and can have the operator of surplus to circulate from being planned into.
Therefore, when supply and demand situation is according to the time or environment is larger is difficult to apply while changing or while itself realizing circulation when changing one's plans according to the request of the operator from undersupply.For example, in region electrical management (CEMS:Community Energy Management System), when in the time of oneself generator of possessing when a plurality of factories in order to in region, solar generator, accumulator, each factory coordinates to keep electricity supply and demand balance in region to be target, supply and demand program and circulation could Bei Ge factory production status at every moment and be called as the environmental aspect institute left and right of weather, supply and demand program may not be fixed.Therefore, when breaking balance between supply and demand due to burst states of affairs such as accidents, be difficult to reply.In addition,, for the request of circulation, requested person is difficult to reach supply and demand adjustment according to situation change supply and demand program at every moment.
As mentioned above, in the technology of recording at patent documentation 1, be difficult to reply supply and demand program and change supply and demand program to realize the situation of circulation according to the situation of changed condition, negotiation by request-judgement.
The object of the invention is, the operator who has accepted request to resource circulation request respectively judgement promise/refuse and decide by negotiation amount of suppression, could resource circulation process in, request target and the circulation method of control target reached in decision accurately.Especially, take that what infer different operators is object for the judgment standard of getting around regulations and possible circulation method.
For solving the means of problem
For solving above-mentioned problem, in the application's invention, when inadequate resource being detected in self system, retrieval carries out managing to other operation main body of resource circulation of the system of main bodys.At this, by preparing prediction in advance, other manage the information of main body action, movable model information retrieve this information at once, decide which to manage main body to propose the request of resource circulation suitable.By the subject goal request resource of managing to such decision, circulate to realize resource and circulate.
Invention effect
According to the present invention, when circulating to maintain the providing of infrastructure services by the resource between a plurality of operators, can predict the attitude of promising/refusing of each operator to circulation.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is representational hardware structure diagram of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is representational software architecture diagram of the present invention.
Fig. 3 is an example of the treatment scheme (request source is processed) of resource circulation method of the present invention.
Fig. 4 is an example of the treatment scheme (processing of request target side) of resource circulation method of the present invention.
Fig. 5 is an example of the detailed treatment scheme of circulation requesting method of the present invention.
Fig. 6 is the example of detailed treatment scheme of the presuming method of circulation of the present invention action model.
Fig. 7 is an example of the detailed treatment scheme of circulation time limit computing method of the present invention.
Fig. 8 means an example of the table of utilization of resources plan of the present invention.
Fig. 9 means an example of the table of circulation action model of the present invention.
Figure 10 means the concept map of the electric power circulation based on resource circulation method of the present invention.
Figure 11 means the concept map of the electric power circulation based on resource circulation method of the present invention.
Figure 12 means the concept map of the freight volume circulation based on resource circulation method of the present invention.
Figure 13 is an example of circulation method list.
Embodiment
Embodiment 1
First, the summary of embodiment is described.
(summary description)
In the present embodiment, in a plurality of factories with power consumption equipments such as the electric power supply devices such as non-utility power generation machine, solar generator, accumulator and production equipment, office equipments, when electric power utilization approaches certain reference value, for example, during in advance with the signing maximum power utilization of electric power operator, to carrying out other operators of electric power circulation, by increasing electric power, supply with or reduce electric power utilization and circulate electric power, in a plurality of operators' group, adjusting electricity supply and demand thus.
Figure 10 means the concept map that the electricity supply and demand of an example of embodiments of the present invention is adjusted.At electric power such as sharing low-voltage distribution wire, self-operation net, supply with between a plurality of operators 1002,1003,1004 of infrastructure 1010, when power shortage being detected in certain operator (1002), to other operators 1003, the electric power circulation based on cutting down electric power utilization or supplying with from the electric power of the electrical circuitry equipments such as decentralized power s via communication line 1005 requests, attempts eliminating power shortage.Now, as described operator 1002 other operators 1003,1004 of prediction action that circulation is asked for electric power of requestor, preferentially to promising the high operator of possibility of request to send request, thereby accept reliably electric power circulation.Yet, request for electric power circulation, the operator 1003 who receives request is difficult to judge whether to plan to carry out electric power and circulate by changing the utilization of common business plan or equipment in advance, need to predict according to the resume in past or request negotiation process the change possibility of described plan.
More specifically, realize as follows resource circulation.
In the present embodiment, infrastructure services supplier and the person of needs, or between the person of needs, or between infrastructure services supplier between such a plurality of operation main bodys, share the resource that object is provided that becomes infrastructure services, for example supply plan during electric power or movement capacity normal and utilize plan, when producing described resource not enough, according to described supply plan and utilization plan, extract the operation main body that can supply with or suppress to be used to promise to circulate by enhancing, described operation main body is sent to circulation request, the operation main body of receiving described circulation request determines that according to current state of affairs change utilization plan or supply plan to promise circulation, to the ISP as requestor, reply.
In order to make described circulation request, record is to take the increase and decrease of the utilization of resources/quantity delivered that the described shared supply plan of respectively managing main body person and described utilization plan be benchmark or the beginning of the utilization of resources/supplys, the certainty factor of promising to promise described in probability and expression the confidence level of probability of the request of the change in the maximum moment of the change of end time or the utilization of resources/supplys.When undersupply, eliminate in the circulation method of undersupply, by promising probability described in asking and the higher circulation method of described certainty factor is eliminated undersupply.
On the other hand, for the probability of promising of described request, according to the operation main body person's of the request of receiving state of affairs and environment and difference can not be shared in advance, therefore described in the ISP who asks predicts, promise probability, calculate and keep the confidence level of this prediction as described certainty factor.Described in calculating, promise probability and certainty factor, described ISP calculates the time limit that can not adjust supply and demand in the circulation between a plurality of operation main body persons, when till the time in described time limit be certain when above, in can adjusting the circulation method of supply and demand, select to send request after circulation method that certainty factor is lower, and increasing described certainty factor when promising rate from replying of the operation main body as requested person described in renewal, when till the described time limit during be certain when following, in can adjusting the circulation method of supply and demand, select to promise to send request after circulation method that probability and certainty factor are higher.In addition,, for the circulation method that there is no requested operator during certain, described certainty factor is carried out to subtraction.Thus, when adjusting time limit of supply and demand by described circulation when long, exploration is as the difficulty of promising of requested person's the circulation based on change of plan of respectively managing main body, when the time limit that can adjust supply and demand by described circulation in short-term, request is reliably promised and easily successfully circulation of supply and demand adjustment.
For example, when asking economize on electricity to adjust the electricity supply and demand in region by the operator to factory etc. in CEMS, each factory is to the electric power utilization plan of each business such as CEMS openly produces, CEMS is for the power shortage of the particular moment of object region, by asking change or the electric power of beginning finish time of minimizing, the business of the maximum power utilization of each business to utilize the change of time to peak section to seek to eliminate power shortage.The operator who accepts request considers that can described request content be carried out and the possibility that affects of all business is judged the promising/refuse of request, described CEMS is replied.CEMS is according to replying from described operator, the circulation method of asking in the change that renewal utilizes time to peak section as change or the electric power of beginning finish time of the minimizing of the maximum power utilization of described circulation method, business promise probability, increase corresponding certainty factor.According to the electricity needs adjustment of the coordination between the operation main body from based in region, time limit till shifting to the circulation request to other regions, to other supply and demand adjustment methods of adjustment such as the emergency measures such as the supply request of upper electric system or scheduled outage, when the described time limit is longer, the circulation method that described certainty factor is lower is asked, when the described time limit more in short-term, to described, promise probability and the higher circulation method of described certainty factor is asked.
For reaching above-mentioned item, possesses in the present embodiment following structure.As the resource circulation method between computed a plurality of operation main bodys, when inadequate resource, predict the promise possibility of other operation main bodys to resource circulation, according to described, promise operation main body and the circulation method that the height of possibility and the height of precision of prediction are selected to the request target of resource circulation, that as the operation main body of the request target of described resource circulation, evaluates described circulation method realizes possibility and described circulation to the impact of managing, judgement could be carried out described circulation request, described in replying to request source, could carry out, each manage main body according to described request content and described in reply, change the some or both sides of self utilization of resources plan and resource provision plan.
In addition, described in predicting, promise, in the method for possibility, to possess: the means of the utilization of shared resource between described a plurality of operators, supply plan; Infer the means of promising probability of the change of described utilization, supply plan; Calculate the means of the certainty factor that described probability infers; When resource supply and demand are unbalanced, according to described utilization, supply plan, generate and can accept the necessary described utilization of resource circulation, the means of the variation of supply plan; Obtain until judge the means in the unbalanced time limit that can eliminate described resource; According to the change of described utilization supply plan, promise certainty factor that probability, described possibility infer and the length in described time limit, send the means of the request of the circulation method that described certainty factor is lower; According to the change of described utilization supply plan, promise certainty factor that probability, described possibility infer and the length in described time limit, send the means that the request of probability and the higher circulation method of described certainty factor is promised in change.
(detailed description)
Next, the present embodiment is described in detail.
Fig. 1 is hardware structure diagram of the present invention.By all systematic group of operator A, be that operator A system 137 and all systematic group of operator B are that operator B system 101 forms, and connect by WAN communication network 156.At this, in Fig. 1, by operator A system 137 and 101 two operator's systems of operator B system, formed, but also can comprise more operator's systems.
Operator A system 137 for operator A all, carry out the set of the utilizations of infrastructure services such as electric power supply, utilization and the systematic group of supply, possess Service Management server 142, cooperation management server 168, monitor Control Server group 140,141, controller group 138,139 and electrical circuitry equipment group 157,158,159.
Service Management server 142 is surplus, the deficiencies for monitoring the resource of infrastructure services, and work out, send the computing machine of the next supervision Control Server group 140,141 control plan, by CPU145, two external memories 147, primary memory 146, input-output unit 144 and communicator 143, formed.In primary memory 146 and two external memories 147, storage is used for the program of resource circulation method, and carries out by CPU147.
In addition, cooperation management server 168 and supervision Control Server group 140,141 cooperate by communicator 143.In addition, input-output unit 170 is the devices for operator's operate services management server 142, confirmation execution result, refresh routine, can be the user's interface devices such as keyboard, mouse, touch-screen, can be also the data input/output devices such as CD driver.
Cooperation management server 168 is to generate the request of circulating about the resource of the infrastructure services with operator B system 101, the computing machine of predicting other operators' such as operator B action.In addition, this server also can be utilized in a side that receives request.Now, the action shown in execution graph 4.
By CPU171, two external memories 173, primary memory 172, input-output unit 170 and communicator 169, formed.In primary memory 172 and two external memories 173, storage is used for the program of resource circulation method, and carries out by CPU171.In addition by communicator 169, via Service Management server 142 and WAN communication network 156, cooperate with operator B system 101.In addition, input-output unit 170 is for operator, to operate the device of cooperation management server 168, confirmation execution result, refresh routine, can be the user's interface devices such as keyboard, mouse, touch-screen, can be also the data input/output devices such as CD driver.
Monitor Control Server group the 140, the 141st, cooperate with controller group 138,139, carry out the computer cluster of the supervision control that infrastructure services is relevant, a plurality of supervision Control Servers corresponding by the object range with monitoring control form.At this, although be the structure based on a plurality of supervision Control Servers, also can only by single supervision Control Server 141, be formed.Monitor that Control Server 141 consists of CPU150, two external memories 152, primary memory 151, input-output unit 149 and communicator 148.According to the plan from Service Management server 142, carry out the supervision of controller group 138,139 is controlled.In two external memories 152 and primary memory 151, store supervisory control program, and carry out by CPU150.In addition, communicator 148 cooperates with Service Management server 142 via LAN, receives the supervision result of controller group 138,139, and sends control indication.In addition, input-output unit 149 is the devices for operater action monitor's Control Server, confirmation execution result, refresh routine, can be the user's interface devices such as keyboard, mouse, touch-screen, can be also the data input/output devices such as CD driver.
Controller group the 138, the 139th, controls, measures electrical circuitry equipment group 157,158,159 control device, consists of accordingly with the electrical circuitry equipment of control object a plurality of controllers.At this, by a plurality of controllers, formed, but also can only by Single Controller 139, be formed, also can adopt controller not to be set and by monitoring that Control Server 141 directly controls electrical circuitry equipment group 157,158,159 structure.Controller 139 consists of CPU154, primary memory 153, communicator 155, carries out the control program of storage in primary memory 153 by CPU154.In addition, communicator 155 cooperates with supervision Control Server 141 via LAN, in addition, controls electrical circuitry equipment group.
Electrical circuitry equipment group the 157,158, the 159th, for providing or utilize the equipment of the infrastructure services such as electric power, can be the electric power supply devices such as thermoelectric generator, solar generator, accumulator, also can be that transformation device, transformer, switch etc. send controller switching equipment, can also be the electric power utilization equipments such as production equipment, air conditioning device, household electrical appliances.
Operator B system 101 and other operator's systems also have the hardware configuration identical with operator A system 137.
Fig. 2 is the structure of the software carried out in the hardware configuration of Fig. 1.
In operator A system 137, on Service Management server 142 as software and DB203 is used in executive plan time limit management 201, service level management 202, plan.The plan formulation of business and the supply of infrastructure services that service level management 202 management is carried out in operator A system 137, utilize situation.For example, when operator is factory, the utilization plan of the infrastructure services business of managing production and there.Plan time limit management 201 calculates the time limit for judging that plan starts for the plan of described business, as the time restriction for carrying out.The described business plan that operation management DB203 savings is worked out by service level management 202, by the measurement result with monitoring the infrastructure services such as controller group 138,139 that cooperating of Control Server 141 collected and electrical circuitry equipment group 157,158,159 and electric power.
On cooperation management server 168, as software, carry out that circulation request management 204, model infer 205, other operator's models DB206.That circulation request management 204 carries out is selected to the request target of the resource circulation of other operators with headed by operator B, request content generates and the transmission of request, reply reception.Model infer 205 in circulation the selected and described request content of the described request target in request management 204 in generating, utilize, according to the information of putting aside in other operator's models DB206, infer the action of other operators to circulation request.Other operator's models DB206 puts aside results in the past and circulation requests other operators, and savings is inferred 205 contents of inferring as other operator's models by model.
Monitor on Control Server 141, by receive and implementation controller group 138,139 supervision is controlled, to the report of Service Management server 142 and from the supervision of the plan of Service Management server 142 control 207 and the savings supervision of controlling 207 controller group 138,139 based on the described supervision supervision of controlling result control DB208 and form.Other monitor that Control Server also has identical structure to monitor Control Server 140 grades.
On controller 138, execution is carried out electrical equipment group's the measurement of sensor values and the measurement of the control of actuator, is controlled 209.
Next, according to Fig. 3 to Fig. 7, mainly explanation plan time limit management 201, service level management 202, circulation request management 204 and model are inferred 205 contents processing.
Fig. 3 is the summary of resource circulation method, is from other operators, to accept the treatment scheme of the request source of resource circulation.
First, step 301 is to detect the processing of inadequate resource, compares utilization and the amount usable of resource by service level management 202, if its difference is certain value processing below 302 with next execution step.At this, the utilization of resource is the plan of the electric power utilization of the business plan based on each operator.Can be for example self by the electric power utilization of time, can be also to add up to the result of disclosed other operators' electric power utilization plan gained in advance from other operators.In addition, when when as electrical power services recipient, described amount usable can be and electric power operator signing maximum power utilization in advance, can be also the electric power utilization self worked out or the desired value of amount of electricity saving.In addition,, when when waiting electric power provider as electric power operator, described amount usable can be the maximum power quantity delivered that adds up to generator ability gained.
Next, step 302 is to work out the processing of inadequate resource elimination plan, works out for eliminating the business plan of described inadequate resource, and work out the control plan that sends to supervision Control Server 141 in service level management 202.At this, described business plan is the plan hourly that the electric power such as generator is supplied with the method for operation of the power consumption equipments such as the running of equipment and production equipment.
Step 303 is processing that can investigation eliminate inadequate resource, and can the described inadequate resource elimination plan that inspection is worked out in described step 302 by service level management 202 eliminate described inadequate resource.According to using the resume in the past of putting aside in DB203 in plan and monitoring, control resume, calculate utilization of resources amount and resource provision amount based on described inadequate resource plan, and analyze and can eliminate inadequate resource.If can not eliminate inadequate resource, the processing below carry out step 304.
Step 304 is the processing of calculating the time limit of avoiding, work out the time that inadequate resource produces and for preventing electrical circuitry equipment group 157,158,159 fault or the impact to other operators being suppressed to minimal avoiding, process when inadequate resource produces, and the time limit of processing is avoided in calculating described in starting.
From current time till in the described time of avoiding time limit of processing, at circulation request management 204, model, infer 205, in other operator's models DB206, to other operators, send resource circulation request, attempt eliminating described inadequate resource.
Next, step 305 is in order to send resource circulation request to other operators, obtains the processing of other operators' circulation action model from other operator's models DB206.Described circulation action model, the information of whether promising request for predicting when having asked the circulation of the resource such as the reduction of electric power utilization or the enhancing of electric power quantity delivered, comprise resource circulation amount that at least more than one electric power circulation method is obtained, to request promise probability and represent described in promise the certainty factor of the precision of prediction of probability.In addition, each circulation method is set to resource circulation action model, therefore, first use the circulation method list shown in Figure 13 to determine circulation method, and extract resource circulation action model according to this definite circulation method.
Step 306 is to infer by model the processing that 205 formulations can be eliminated the circulation plan of inadequate resource, according to the described circulation action model of obtaining in step 305, works out to the resource circulation plan of eliminating other operators of described inadequate resource.According to the resource circulation amount comprising in described resource circulation action model, be extracted in the transmission target of the request that can eliminate inadequate resource under the prerequisite that other operators promise all requests and the resource circulation method of asking.
Step 309 be model infer 205 and circulation request management 204 according to the processing of promising probability and precision of prediction and select request target and circulation method, described in comprising according to described circulation action model, promise probability and described certainty factor, select more than one request target operator and resource circulation method.
Step 310 and step 311 are to described request target operator, to send request in circulation in request management 204, and from described request target operator, as replying of request, receive circulation carry out could processing.
Before the time limit that arrival calculates in step 304 (step 307), until can eliminate the processing of inadequate resource (step 308) repeating said steps 309, step 310 and step 311.
In step 312, by model, infer 205, according to the response content in the request content of the circulation in step 309, step 310 and step 311, upgrade circulation action model, and be stored in other operator's models DB206.
Fig. 4 is the summary of resource circulation method, is from other operators, to receive the treatment scheme of the request target of resource circulation request.
First, step 401 is the processing that receive resource (electric power) circulation request, is the processing that is received in the resource circulation request of sending in step 310.
Step 402 is to work out the processing of circulation plan, work out the circulation such as the resource that realizes requested electric power business plan change and in order to realize described business plan change, send to the change of the control plan that monitors Control Server 140.
Step 403 is processing of analyzing the impact of own service, is to analyze the processing on the impact of business producing by described resource circulation in service level management 202.For example, when the running by non-utility power generation machine realizes described resource circulation, analyze the rising of the costs such as fuel cost, in addition, when when utilizing the economize on electricity stopping of equipment to realize the circulation of described resource based on electric power such as production equipments, analyze not the reaching of the business objectives such as turnout that produces which kind of degree.
Step 404 is the processing of calculating the beginning time limit of circulation plan, calculates and in plan time limit management 201, starts for realizing the business plan change of described resource circulation, the time limit of control plan change.
Step 405 be determine circulation could processing, in circulation request management 201, according to what analyze, the impact of business and beginning time limit of calculating are determined to the execution of circulation could in step 403 in step 404.For example, when surpass the described beginning time limit or to described elementary period, be limited to stop during while being less than certain value, be judged as and cannot carry out described circulation, in addition, when larger on the impact of described business, be judged as and do not carry out circulation.
Step 406 is to send the processing of replying, and the circulation determining could be sent to the operator of request source in circulation request management 201 in step 405.Described in receiving in step 311, reply.
When the circulation determining in step 405 could when promise, in order to carry out the circulation plan of working out in step 402, send to the change of described control plan to monitor Control Server 140, and realize the resource circulation to request.
Fig. 5 means the treatment scheme of the request target of resource circulation and the system of selection of circulation method, is the detailed treatment scheme of step 309.
First, step 501 is to obtain the processing of promising probability and certainty factor according to resource circulation action model, extract the resource circulation action model relevant to the circulation method of extracting as circulation method in the works from operator's described resource circulation, and obtain it and promise probability and certainty factor, wherein said operator extracts as request target in the works from the resource circulation of working out step 306.
Step 502 is that investigation expires and is limited to whether long than certain value processing of time only, relatively in step 304, obtain to the time in the time limit of avoiding processing and the threshold value of setting in advance and calculate that it is poor.
Step 503 is in the situation that expiring of calculating in step 502 is limited to the time processing longer than threshold value only, is according to the processing of the lower circulation method of described circulation action Model Selection certainty factor.When till select the circulation method that certainty factor is lower in the circulation action model when longer, obtained of the time in described time limit in step 501.At this, system of selection as the lower circulation method of certainty factor, can from the described circulation action model of obtaining, select a circulation method that certainty factor is minimum, also the described circulation method obtaining can be sorted from low to high with certainty factor, according to a plurality of circulation methods of described sequence select progressively from high to low, until reach the resource circulation amount needing, so long as preferentially select the method for the circulation method that certainty factor is lower, can be any means.
Step 504 is that investigation expires and is limited to whether short than certain value processing of time only, relatively in step 304, obtain to the time in the time limit of avoiding processing and the threshold value of setting in advance and calculate that it is poor.
Step 505 is in the situation that expiring of calculating in step 504 is limited to the time processing shorter than threshold value only, is the processing of selecting certainty factor and promising the circulation method that probability is higher.When till select certainty factor and promise the method that probability is higher the circulation action model when longer, obtained from step 501 of the time in described time limit.At this, system of selection as circulation method, can from the described circulation action model of obtaining, extract the circulation method of certainty factor more than certain value, and according to described probability and the calculating of the circulation amount based on the described resource circulation method expectation circulation amount of promising, select the circulation method of the circulation method consistent with the resource circulation amount needing or circulation more than expectation resource circulation amount, also described certainty factor can be considered as promising described in representing the correct probability of prediction of probability, by described certainty factor with described in promise probability multiplication gained the amount execution probability that is considered as resource circulation calculate described expectation circulation amount, so long as preferentially select certainty factor and promise the circulation method that probability is higher, it can be any means.
Fig. 6 means the processing flow chart of the presuming method of resource circulation action model, is the detailed treatment scheme of the circulation action model modification in step 312.
First, step 601 is to obtain the processing of request content and response content, for the described request content that becomes the operator of request target and the circulation method of request in step 309, step 310, receive, obtain which kind of action of described requested operator in taking to promise, refuse in step 311.
When described requested operator's reply when promising (step 602), step 603 is to increase the processing of promising probability, is the processing of promising probability corresponding to circulation method of calculating the described request relevant to the operator who becomes described request target.As described computing method of promising probability, described in can only making, promise the value that probability increase is set in advance, when described promise probability while surpassing 1.0 will described in promise probability and be made as 1.0, also can in other operator's models DB206, keep request resume in the past and from described request resume, will promise number of times and carry out calculating probability divided by described request number of times, so long as according to the methods of promising the calculating of probability increase of replying of promising, can be any means more.
Reply when promising (step 604) as described requested operator, step 604 is to reduce the processing of promising probability corresponding with the circulation content of request target, is the processing of promising probability corresponding to circulation method of calculating the described request relevant to the operator who becomes described request target.As the described method for calculating probability of promising, described in can only making, promise probability and reduce the value of in advance setting, when described promise probability lower than 0.0 time will described in promise probability and be made as 0.0, also can in other operator's models DB206, keep request resume in the past and from described request resume, will promise number of times and carry out calculating probability divided by described request number of times, so long as according to few method of promising the calculating of probability minimizing of replying of promising, can be any means.
Next, step 605 is the processing that increase the certainty factor corresponding with the circulation content of request target, though described in the content of replying, all increase corresponding certainty factor.In addition, step 606 is to reduce the processing of the certainty factor beyond the circulation method of request target, reduces the certainty factor of circulation method of the request target of the request of not sending.For example, the increase method of described certainty factor, minimizing method can make certainty factor increase, reduce with certain less value of setting in advance.So long as can calculate the certainty factor of the circulation method of the request of frequently sending or nearest request time date issued circulation method shorter than current time, uprise, the method of sending the certainty factor step-down of circulation method that the frequency of request is lower or the nearest request time date issued circulation method far away than current time can be any means.
Fig. 8 means the example of table of the electric power utilization plan of resource circulation method.Each operator shares the electric power utilization plan shown in Fig. 8 and is stored in other operator's models DB206 between a plurality of operators, realizes thus resource circulation method.
Row 801 " promisor's name " are operator's titles, represent the operator who works out, carries out this plan.Row 802 " class of service " are the attributes of this electric power utilization plan, and expression production business, office service etc. are utilized the classification of the business of electric power.Row 803 " constantly " represent the moment of carrying out electric power utilization, and row 804 " electric power utilization " are illustrated in the electric power amount that described electric power utilization utilizes constantly.Open between each operator, the shared horal electric power utilization of Fig. 8.
Row 806 represents that the electric power utilization plan that operator " business office of Hitachi " conduct " office service conventionally " is implemented at " 2011/11/110:00-1:00 " is " 10 ".
Fig. 9 means the example of table of the circulation action model of resource circulation method.Each operator shared electric power utilization plan in Fig. 8 of take is basis, predicts the change probability of described electric power utilization plan, thus as circulation action model.
Row 901 " promisor's name " are the operator's identical with row 801 titles, and row 902 " class of service " are the classifications of the business of utilizing electric power identical with row 802.
Row 903 " zero hour " are that described electric power utilization starts the moment that electric power utilizes in identical promisor's identical services classification in the works.Row 904 " change probability " are the predicted values when the probability that has carried out in advance, postponed being promised when the changes such as the described zero hour are asked, and row 905 " certainty factor " mean the value of confidence level of predicted value of the described change probability of the described zero hour.
Row 906 " finish time " are the described electric power utilization moment that the end electric power in identical promisor's identical services classification utilizes in the works.Row 907 " change probability " are the predicted values when the probability that has carried out in advance, postponed being promised when the changes such as the described finish time are asked, and row 908 " certainty factor " mean the value of confidence level of predicted value of the described change probability of the described finish time.
Row 909 " peak value constantly " are in described electric power utilization, to be planned in the works electric power utilization to become the maximum moment, and row 910 " change probability " and row 911 " certainty factor " mean the described peak value predicted value of promising probability of change request and the value of its confidence level constantly.
Row 912 " peak value utilization " are that described electric power utilizes calculated maximum power utilization, and row 913 " change probability " and row 914 " certainty factor " mean the value of the predicted value of promising probability of having asked in the minimizing of described peak value utilization or the situation of increase and its confidence level.
In Fig. 9, the increase of as broad as long each planned value, minimizing and as broad as long variable quantity ground will promise probability and certainty factor is processed as identical value, but can will promise probability and certainty factor is processed as different value according to the direction of the variations such as increase, minimizing, also can as the probability distribution function with the value corresponding with asked variable quantity, process promising probability.
In addition, in Fig. 8 and Fig. 9, using electric power utilization as plan, circulation action model, but in the situation that comprise there is generator, the operator of the electric power supply device such as accumulator, can be using electric power quantity delivered as plan, circulation action model keep.
Fig. 7 obtains the resource treatment scheme in circulation time limit, is the detailed treatment scheme of step 304.
First, step 701 is that the fault that prediction inadequate resource causes produces processing constantly, utilization of resources plan and the resource provision plan of comparing the infrastructure services such as electric power supply, utilization, the difference that prediction utilization surpasses quantity delivered or the utilization of in advance setting and quantity delivered is that surplus capacity declines and the moment of generation fault.When supplying with, utilizing for electric power, shared business plan and electric power utilization plan between operator more in advance, with by electric power operator and there is the electric power supply that the operator of generating set is shared and plan, thereby calculate to be contemplated to, supply with that surplus energy cannot maintain service voltage lower than certain value or frequency produces the moment having a power failure.
Next, step 702 is to predict the processing of the response time based on resource circulation request, when other operators being sent to request, and the needed time till replying according to the request resume prediction reception in past.As Forecasting Methodology, can in other operator's models DB206, keep request resume in the past, using each operator's request constantly with the mean value of replying difference constantly as predicted value, also can using all operators' described request constantly with the mean value of replying difference constantly as predicted value, so long as prediction receives the method to the time of replying of request, it can be any means.
Step 703 is to obtain fault-avoidance processing and the processing in processing time, obtains the processing time of avoiding processing of working out in step 304.According to the resume in past or design setting value calculating execution constantly, avoid processing the needed time.While stopping electrical circuitry equipment when avoiding described in conduct being treated to preparation power failure, can will there is no fault and stop the maximum time of each electrical circuitry equipment in the needed time to be made as the described processing time, and when as described in avoid processing peripherad operator and notify while produce having a power failure, each operator of anticipation is confirmed to notify and prepares the needed time of power failure to be made as the processing time.
Finally, step 704 is the processing in computation requests final moment of sending, according to the response time of described resource circulation request, described in avoid processing time and the described fault processed to produce prediction constantly, calculate the final moment of sending resource circulation request to other operators.As computing method, calculating produces anticipation from described fault and constantly avoids described in advance the moment in processing time of processing to start the time limit as avoiding processing, calculate from described avoid processing start the final moment that the time limit sends as resource circulation request the moment of the response time of described resource circulation request in advance.At this, computing method predict that by producing from described fault turning calculation constantly around calculates, but also can in other operator's models DB206, keep request resume in the past basis from sending initial request till the on average time of finishing that circulation method is determined is calculated the final moment that described resource circulation request is sent, so long as calculate the method that these backward other operators' request does not cause the moment of effective resource circulation, it can be any means.
In the present embodiment and Figure 10, a plurality of operator's self-disciplines are taken action dispersedly and mutually implemented electric power circulation as prerequisite.Yet, also can be as shown in figure 11, electric power operator 1102 concentrates the electric power circulation method of implementing, and to the operator 1103,1104,1105 who is present in region 1101 and share the power infrastructures 1110 such as distribution wire, sends electric power circulation request, thus the structure of the power shortage in elimination region.
According to the resource circulation method of the present embodiment, while carrying out electric power circulation when the utilization plan of common business plan or equipment changes or according to the described plan of request change, can, according to other operators' that obtain in the negotiation process of the resume in past or request the change possibility of replying the described plan of prediction, can predict to heavens other operators' circulation action.Thus, can realize high-precision electric power circulation.
Embodiment 2
Next, the summary of other embodiments is described.
In the present embodiment, at railway, public transport etc., provide between a plurality of transport operator of transportation service, when the objects of transport such as passenger or goods are increased to the above and transport power of plan when not enough or cause transport power to reduce because of the accidents such as fault of transportation equipment, by circulate mutually transport power between described a plurality of transport operator, eliminate transport power deficiency.
Figure 12 means the concept map as the transport power circulation of an example of other embodiments.In identical region, a plurality of railroading persons 1202 that provide passenger to serve between same place, 1203, in public transport operator 1204, when administer and provide interval generation the in A station 1205 and B station 1206 that passenger serves a certain operator (1202), be not in good state, in the time of cannot providing passenger to serve, via the railroading person 1203 that can provide passenger to serve in 1211 pairs of communication lines are between same zone or public transport operator 1204 requests, by roundabout circuit, carry out passenger transport or carry out transport power circulation by increasing public transport, attempt eliminating the deficiency of transport power, maintain passenger's grade of service.Now, requestor is described railroading person 1202 other operators' 1203,1204 of prediction transport power and the action to request, preferentially, to promising the higher operator of possibility of request to send request, promptly accepts thus transport power circulation.
This circulation requesting method can be realized by the identical method of resource circulation method with shown in Fig. 3 to Fig. 7.For example, during the passenger's who is in advance contemplated to holding of celebration etc. increase, during can obtaining sufficiently long negotiation, therefore ask transport power circulation method that certainty factor is lower to calculate other operators' the probability of promising, and in bursts such as accidents, can not obtain enough negotiations during in the situation that, by certainty factor with promise transport operator that probability is higher and ask to accept reliably transport power and circulate.
Symbol description
137 operator A systems
101 operator B systems
142 Service Management servers
168 cooperation management servers
140 monitor Control Server
141 monitor Control Server
139 controllers
156 wide-area communication circuits
157 electrical circuitry equipments
203 operation management DB
206 other operator's models DB
208 monitor control DB
Claims (16)
1. a resource circulation method of circulating resource between a plurality of operation main bodys, is characterized in that,
Possess:
Database, it stores has envisioned other and manages main bodys and utilize the timing of resource and the information of amount movable model information at once,
Possess:
Detect the detecting step of inadequate resource;
When testing result is inadequate resource, from described database, obtain the step that obtains of described action model information;
According to the described described action model of obtaining, determine the determining step of the operation main body of the resource circulation carry out the inadequate resource for detecting described in eliminating; And
By the described operation main body of being determined, carry out the step of resource circulation.
2. resource circulation method according to claim 1, is characterized in that,
Possess time limit calculation procedure, it calculates the time limit of the inadequate resource for detecting described in avoiding,
The time limit and the current time that described in described determining step basis, calculate are determined described operation main body.
3. resource circulation method according to claim 2, is characterized in that,
Described action model information also possesses the reliability information of the confidence level that represents this action model information,
When till time in described time limit when longer than predetermined length, described determining step determines that operation main body that described reliability information is low is as circulation object.
4. according to the resource circulation method described in claim 2 or 3, it is characterized in that,
Described time limit calculation procedure according to occur inadequate resource the moment, to described other response times while managing the circulation of subject requests resources, calculate.
5. resource circulation method according to claim 4, is characterized in that,
Described resource is the freight volume of electric weight or communication.
6. resource is circulated a server, and it is arranged in a plurality of operation main bodys, manages the resource circulation between this operation main body, it is characterized in that,
Possess:
Database, it stores has envisioned other and manages main bodys and utilize the timing of resource and the information of amount movable model information at once;
Pick-up unit, it detects inadequate resource; And
Cooperation management device, it is when testing result is inadequate resource, from described database, obtain described action model information, the described action model obtained according to this is determined the operation main body of the resource circulation of carrying out the inadequate resource for detecting described in eliminating, and the resource circulation server of the operation main body of being determined to this sends resource circulation solicited message.
7. resource circulation server according to claim 6, is characterized in that,
Described cooperation management device calculates the time limit of the inadequate resource for avoiding detecting, and the time limit calculating according to this and current time are determined described operation main body.
8. resource circulation server according to claim 7, is characterized in that,
Described action model information also possesses the reliability information of the confidence level that represents this action model information,
When till time in described time limit when longer than predetermined length, described cooperation management device determines that operation main body that described reliability information is low is as circulation object.
9. according to the resource circulation server described in claim 7 or 8, it is characterized in that,
Described cooperation management device according to occur inadequate resource the moment, to described other response times while managing the circulation of subject requests resources, calculate.
10. the resource circulation method between computed, a plurality of operation main bodys, is characterized in that possessing:
When inadequate resource, predict the step of promising possibility of other operation main bodys to resource circulation;
According to the described height of possibility and the height of precision of prediction of promising, be selected to the operation main body of request target and the step of circulation method of resource circulation;
The computing machine of the operation main body by the request target as the circulation of described resource, that evaluates described circulation method realizes possibility and described circulation to the impact of managing, and judgement could be carried out the step of described circulation request;
The step that could carry out described in replying to request source; And
Each manage main body according to described request content and described in reply, change utilization of resources plan and the one party of resource provision plan or both sides' the step of self.
11. resource circulation methods according to claim 10, is characterized in that,
In described prediction, promise in possibility step, infer the utilization of shared resource between described a plurality of operators, the change of the method for supply plan and described utilization, supply plan promise probability,
Described resource circulation method also possesses:
Calculate the step of the certainty factor of inferring of described probability;
When resource supply and demand are unbalanced, according to described utilization, supply plan, generate and can accept the described utilization of needed resource circulation, the step of the variation of supply plan;
Obtain until judge whether successfully to eliminate the step in the unbalanced time limit of described resource;
According to the change of described utilization supply plan, promise certainty factor that probability, described possibility infer and the length in described time limit, send the step of the request of the circulation method that described certainty factor is low; And
According to the change of described utilization supply plan, promise certainty factor that probability, described possibility infer and the length in described time limit, send the step that the request of probability and the high circulation method of described certainty factor is promised in change.
12. resource circulation methods according to claim 11, is characterized in that,
Calculate the method for the certainty factor of inferring of described probability,
Between operator, share the resource provision plan that at least comprises the utilization of resources plan of utilization of resources amount on a time period and at least comprise resource provision amount on a time period,
The promise probability of total to the change request of the utilization of resources amount of described utilization of resources plan and described resource provision plan or quantity delivered,
With described change request send frequency and till the nearest time of sending during length at least one promise the confidence level of probability described in calculating.
13. resource circulation methods according to claim 12, is characterized in that,
Obtain the step in time limit,
Obtain the unbalanced moment that need to eliminate described resource,
The response time of prediction to the request of resource circulation,
The processing time of the unbalanced avoiding method of other resources when obtaining described resource and circulating unsuccessfully,
In the processing time of the moment of avoiding according to described needs, described response time and described other avoiding methods, calculate and send for circulate to avoid the final term of the unbalanced request of resource by resource.
14. resource circulation methods according to claim 13, is characterized in that,
Send the step of request,
Obtain the unbalanced moment that need to eliminate described resource,
The response time of prediction to resource circulation request,
The processing time of the unbalanced avoiding method of other resources when obtaining described resource and circulating unsuccessfully,
In the processing time of the moment of avoiding according to described needs, described response time and described other avoiding methods, calculate and to send for circulate to avoid the final term of the unbalanced request of resource by resource.
Freight volume circulation method between 15. 1 kinds of computed, traffic operators, is characterized in that,
When the supply and demand of freight volume are urgent, prediction increases the possibility of promising of request for the freight volume to other transport operator,
According to the described height of possibility and the height of precision of prediction of promising, be selected to transport operator and requesting method that described freight volume increases the request target of request,
As described freight volume, increase the transport operator of the request target of request, evaluate that described freight volume increases realize possibility and described freight volume increases the impact on other Transportation Operations of described transport operator, judge that described freight volume increases could,
To request source reply described could,
Each transport operator according to described request content and described in reply, change the utilization plan of the transportation equipment of self.
Between 16. 1 kinds of computed, electric power operators or the electric power circulation method between electric power operator and electricity needs person or between electricity needs person, it is characterized in that,
When the difference of electric power utilization and electric power quantity delivered or electric power contract amount is certain value when following, prediction is for to the enhancing of other electric power operator's electric power quantity delivered or cut down the possibility of promising of request to the electric power utilization of demander,
According to the described height of possibility and the height of precision of prediction of promising, be selected to described electric power and supply with electric power operator or demander and the requesting method that strengthens or utilize the request target of the request of reduction,
As the electric power operator of described request target, evaluate that described quantity delivered increases realize possibility and described quantity delivered increases the impact that described electric power is managed, judge described electric power supply with strengthen could,
That as the demander of described request target, evaluates that described consumption reduces realizes the impact that possibility and described consumption reduce, judge that described power consumption cuts down could,
To request source reply described could,
Each electric power operator and demander according to described request content and described in reply the electric power shared device, the utilization plan that electric power utilizes equipment of change self.
Applications Claiming Priority (1)
| Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
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| PCT/JP2011/006877 WO2013084268A1 (en) | 2011-12-09 | 2011-12-09 | Resource allocation method by means of coordination among different entities |
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| CN103959322A true CN103959322A (en) | 2014-07-30 |
| CN103959322B CN103959322B (en) | 2017-03-15 |
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| JP (1) | JP5822948B2 (en) |
| CN (1) | CN103959322B (en) |
| WO (1) | WO2013084268A1 (en) |
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| JP5822948B2 (en) | 2015-11-25 |
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