WO2004046986A1 - 植林事業計画システム及び植林事業計画プログラム - Google Patents
植林事業計画システム及び植林事業計画プログラム Download PDFInfo
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- WO2004046986A1 WO2004046986A1 PCT/JP2003/014679 JP0314679W WO2004046986A1 WO 2004046986 A1 WO2004046986 A1 WO 2004046986A1 JP 0314679 W JP0314679 W JP 0314679W WO 2004046986 A1 WO2004046986 A1 WO 2004046986A1
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
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- A—HUMAN NECESSITIES
- A01—AGRICULTURE; FORESTRY; ANIMAL HUSBANDRY; HUNTING; TRAPPING; FISHING
- A01C—PLANTING; SOWING; FERTILISING
- A01C21/00—Methods of fertilising, sowing or planting
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- A—HUMAN NECESSITIES
- A01—AGRICULTURE; FORESTRY; ANIMAL HUSBANDRY; HUNTING; TRAPPING; FISHING
- A01G—HORTICULTURE; CULTIVATION OF VEGETABLES, FLOWERS, RICE, FRUIT, VINES, HOPS OR SEAWEED; FORESTRY; WATERING
- A01G23/00—Forestry
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0631—Resource planning, allocation, distributing or scheduling for enterprises or organisations
-
- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q10/00—Administration; Management
- G06Q10/06—Resources, workflows, human or project management; Enterprise or organisation planning; Enterprise or organisation modelling
- G06Q10/063—Operations research, analysis or management
- G06Q10/0635—Risk analysis of enterprise or organisation activities
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
- G06Q99/00—Subject matter not provided for in other groups of this subclass
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A—TECHNOLOGIES FOR ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02A40/00—Adaptation technologies in agriculture, forestry, livestock or agroalimentary production
- Y02A40/10—Adaptation technologies in agriculture, forestry, livestock or agroalimentary production in agriculture
- Y02A40/22—Improving land use; Improving water use or availability; Controlling erosion
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- Y—GENERAL TAGGING OF NEW TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENTS; GENERAL TAGGING OF CROSS-SECTIONAL TECHNOLOGIES SPANNING OVER SEVERAL SECTIONS OF THE IPC; TECHNICAL SUBJECTS COVERED BY FORMER USPC CROSS-REFERENCE ART COLLECTIONS [XRACs] AND DIGESTS
- Y02—TECHNOLOGIES OR APPLICATIONS FOR MITIGATION OR ADAPTATION AGAINST CLIMATE CHANGE
- Y02P—CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE PRODUCTION OR PROCESSING OF GOODS
- Y02P60/00—Technologies relating to agriculture, livestock or agroalimentary industries
- Y02P60/40—Afforestation or reforestation
Definitions
- the present invention relates to a tree planting business planning system and a tree planting business planning program that can formulate and evaluate a tree planting business plan.
- a tree planting business plan is created by simulating a tree planting business using a single tree species. Since the period from planting to logging is as long as several tens of years, optimizing a forestation project plan through simulation is an effective means. Also, in natural or artificial coniferous forests, by managing the relationship between the number of remaining trees per unit area and the age of trees, the current condition of forests and the amount of trees accumulated There is known a quantitative thinning method that enables prediction of the amount of vegetation (Japanese Patent Laid-Open No. 5-111335).
- CDM is an abbreviation of “Clean Development Mechanism”. Developed countries that have set numerical targets for greenhouse gas emissions have implemented projects such as reducing emissions in developing countries. The resulting reduction in emissions is to be acquired as a national emission allowance, and the afforestation project is one candidate for multiple CDM projects (eg, “The Clean Development Mechanism in the Countdown: Going Forward” Global Warming Countermeasures, Expanding Business Opportunities ”, Nikkei Ecology, October 2002, Nikkei Inc., September 8, 2002, No. 40, p. 98—101).
- the purpose of running a tree planting business is to cut down trees so that they can be sold at a high price.
- the timber market price depends on the balance between supply and demand. At the time of logging, the prices of the trees in question are not always high. In addition, delaying the harvesting period until the timber market price becomes high may degrade the forest, and in some cases reduce the commercial value of the timber. In addition, expensive and traded trees are generally accompanied by risks such as insufficient growth due to damage by pests and the like. In addition, it is necessary to formulate an afforestation plan that is appropriate for the environment where the afforestation will take place, and also to make a plan that takes into account the adverse effects of afforestation on the surrounding area.
- afforestation projects are attracting attention as an effective countermeasure against global warming.However, to implement afforestation projects to prevent global warming, the amount of carbon accumulated in trees as they grow grows. It is necessary to carefully formulate the afforestation project plan to maximize it. For this purpose, it is important to accurately identify the current status of the candidate plantation sites.Therefore, the current carbon stock of the candidate plantation sites is accurately grasped, and the candidate plantations are classified based on the carbon stock. There is a problem that it is difficult to formulate an afforestation project plan in consideration of global warming by the conventional method of planning an afforestation business plan. Disclosure of the invention
- An object of the present invention is to provide a tree planting business planning system and a tree planting business planning program that can formulate a tree planting business plan and evaluate business feasibility according to the purpose of tree planting.
- the gist of the present invention is a tree-planting business planning system, which is capable of communicating with a terminal installed at a site where tree-planting is performed via the Internet, and includes a computer server for drafting and evaluating a tree-planting business plan.
- a plan database that records the plan, a tree species database in which tree species are stored in advance for each tree species, and a breast height diameter and a tree height in a local area at a plurality of candidate plantation sites input from the terminal.
- the present condition information collecting means that collects the tree height and the tree height and the tree height in the local area, the current amount of carbon dioxide absorption at the afforestation site is determined by a predetermined calculation formula.
- Means for determining a plantation area by selecting a candidate plantation area having a value smaller than the first threshold value; a planting area in the plantation area and the tree species data; W
- the gist of the present invention is a tree planting business planning system comprising a computer server for communicating and communicating with a terminal installed at a site where tree planting is performed via the Internet, and for making and evaluating a tree planting business plan.
- a planning database that records the obtained afforestation business plan, a tree species database in which tree species data is recorded for each tree species, and all trees in the local area of each of the plurality of candidate forestation sites input from the terminal
- the present state information collecting means for receiving the breast height diameter value and the tree height value, and information for specifying the candidate afforestation site, and, based on the received breast height diameter value and the tree height value, the average CO 2 per unit area at the current time at the afforestation candidate site
- the amount of carbon absorbed is determined by a predetermined calculation formula, and a candidate afforestation site having a calculated average carbon dioxide absorption value smaller than the first threshold value is selected.
- a first calculation means for calculating an average diameter and an average tree height for each forest age, a second calculating means for calculating a number distribution and a height distribution for each tree diameter by calculation, and A third calculating means for calculating the log volume by diameter per unit area based on the number distribution and the tree height distribution, and multiplying the log volume by the plantation area to obtain the log volume of the entire plantation area; Fourth calculating means for calculating the monetary value of the entire plantation by multiplying the log volume of the entire plantation by the log price by diameter, and the tree planting for each of the tree species recorded in the tree species database.
- Change land area The monetary value of the entire plantation is calculated by repeatedly executing the first, second, third and fourth calculating means, and the monetary value obtained by the fourth calculating means is the most.
- a planning means for selecting a tree species and a plantation area to be increased, and recording the selected tree species, planting area and a predicted value of a change in the growth of the tree in the planning database as forestation business plan information; and recording in the planning database.
- Been Planning output means for displaying the afforestation business plan information on the terminal.
- the gist of the present invention is that the afforestation business planning system includes an indirect impact storage means for preliminarily storing information on indirect impact for each environment of the plantation business and the size of the afforestation business obtained by the preliminary survey, and a preliminary survey.
- a risk storage unit that stores in advance the risk information of each plantation project scale and the environment of the plantation site, and the size of the plantation business plan read out from the plan database and the planned value of the indirect impact corresponding to the plantation site.
- An indirect impact prediction unit that reads out from the impact storage unit and records it in the plan database; and reads out the scale of the afforestation business plan and the planned value of the risk corresponding to the plantation area read out from the plan database from the risk storage unit. And a risk predicting means for recording in the plan database.
- the gist of the present invention is that the afforestation business planning system includes: an indirect impact collecting unit that receives and collects the current status information for the indirect impact prediction input from the terminal; and the current status information for the risk prediction input from the terminal.
- Risk collecting means to be received and collected; the indirect influence collecting means; the current state information of the indirect effects, the current state information of the risk; and the information of the tree growing state received by the risk collecting means and the current state information collecting means, respectively.
- a plan achievement status determining means for comparing each of the above with a forecast value or a plan value recorded in the plan database to calculate the ratio of the current state to the plan; and If the tree planting business plan has not been achieved, the system further comprises a plan reviewing unit that drafts the tree planting business plan again and records the plan in the plan database.
- the indirect impact predicting means and risk prediction unit based on the plan that the recorded reviewing the plan database, perform again indirect effect and prediction of risk.
- the gist of the present invention is that the plantation site determining means sets a second threshold value smaller than the first threshold value, and the obtained carbon dioxide absorption is smaller than the first threshold value. If it is larger than the second threshold value, the current secondary forest is cut down and determined as a plantation site for new plantation.
- the gist of the present invention is to communicate with a terminal installed at a site where tree planting is conducted via the Internet, and to plan and evaluate a tree planting business plan, a plan database for recording the tree planting business plan, Tree planting running on a tree planting business planning system consisting of a computer server with a tree species database pre-stored for each species
- a business planning program comprising: a current state information collection process of collecting tree heights and heights of trees in a local region at a plurality of candidate plantations input from the terminal; ⁇ From the height, determine the current amount of carbon dioxide absorption at the proposed afforestation site by a predetermined formula, and select the afforestation site where the calculated amount of carbon dioxide absorption is smaller than the first threshold.
- Plan to select the tree species and planting area that can be planted, and record the selected tree species, planting area, and predicted growth changes of the trees in the planning database as tree planting business plan information.
- a computer is made to perform a planning process and a plan output process of displaying the tree planting business plan information recorded in the plan database on the terminal.
- the gist of the present invention is that a communication can be made via the Internet with a terminal installed at the site where tree planting is carried out, and in order to formulate and evaluate a tree planting business plan, a plan database that records the tree planting business plan,
- a tree-planting business planning program that operates on a tree-planting business planning system comprising a computer server having a tree species database in which tree species data is stored in advance.
- the present condition information collection processing for receiving the breast height diameter value and the tree height value of all the trees in the area and the information for specifying the candidate plantation site, and the received breast height diameter value and the tree height value, and
- the average carbon dioxide absorption per unit area in the area is calculated using a prescribed formula, and the calculated average carbon dioxide absorption is smaller than the first threshold.
- the candidate plantation site is determined as a plantation site, and a plantation site determination process for outputting a breast height diameter value and a tree height value of a tree at the candidate plantation site and information for specifying the candidate plantation site.
- the computer causes the computer to perform a planning process of recording in a database and a plan output process of displaying the tree planting business plan information recorded in the planning database on the terminal.
- the gist of the present invention is as follows.
- the tree planting business planning program is obtained by an indirect impact storage process for preliminarily storing information on an indirect impact for each environment of a plantation site and the size of the tree planting business obtained by the preliminary survey, and a preliminary survey.
- a risk storage process that stores in advance the risk information for each plantation project scale and the environment of the plantation site, and the size of the plantation project plan and the planned value of the indirect impact corresponding to the plantation site read out from the above-mentioned planning night.
- From the indirect impact storage process and records the indirect impact prediction process into the planning database; and stores the scale of the afforestation business plan read from the planning database and the planned value of the risk corresponding to the plantation area in the risk storage.
- the computer further performs a risk prediction process which is read out from the process and recorded in the plan database.
- the gist of the present invention is that the afforestation project planning program includes: an indirect impact collection process of receiving and collecting current status information for indirect impact prediction input from the terminal; and current status information for risk prediction input from the terminal.
- the risk collection process received and collected, the indirect impact collection process, the risk collection process and the current status information collection process received the current status information of the indirect impact, the current status information of the risk, and the status of tree growth Comparing each piece of information with a predicted value or a plan value recorded in the plan database to calculate a ratio of the current state to the plan; and a plant achievement project based on the ratio of the current state to the plan. If the plan has not been achieved, the reforestation business plan is drafted again, and the plan review process recorded in the plan database is further executed. To perform the computer, the indirect effect prediction process and risk prediction process, on the basis of the plan that the recorded reviewing the plan database, perform again indirect effects and risk prediction.
- the gist of the present invention is as follows. When the obtained carbon dioxide absorption is smaller than the first threshold and larger than the second threshold, the current secondary forest is cut down and a new It will be decided as a reforestation area for tree planting.
- a project for tree planting is made based on the current situation of the tree plantation, and indirect impacts and risks are forecasted.
- the advantage is that the business feasibility can also be evaluated.
- the achievement status of the plan was determined based on the current status information, indirect impact information, and risk information, and the plan was reviewed based on the results of this determination. I can do it.
- FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of one embodiment of the present invention.
- FIG. 2 is a flowchart showing the operations for planning and evaluating afforestation projects.
- FIG. 3 is an explanatory diagram showing a local region in a plantation. BEST MODE FOR CARRYING OUT THE INVENTION
- FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing the configuration of the embodiment.
- reference numeral 1 denotes an afforestation project planning system for planning and evaluating afforestation projects, and is composed of a combi-evening server.
- Reference numeral 3 denotes a plantation terminal installed at a local office in a plantation including overseas and capable of communicating with the planting business planning system, and is owned by individuals and traders who operate forestry in the plantation. When implementing a large-scale tree planting project, one plantation terminal 3 is installed for each plantation area. Here, three plantation terminals are shown as an example.
- Reference numeral 4 denotes the Internet, which is used for exchanging information between each plantation area terminal 3 and the plantation business planning system 1.
- Reference numeral 11 denotes a current status information collection unit that collects information on the current status of the plantation input from the plantation terminal 3.
- Reference numeral 12 denotes a carbon stock determination unit that quantifies and defines the current status of the plantation area based on the information collected by the current status information collection unit 11 before starting the tree planting business. In the following explanation, indicators indicating the status of plantations are Then, use the carbon stock obtained from the volume of the tree. The method of calculating the carbon accumulation amount will be described later.
- Reference numeral 13 denotes a carbon storage amount storage unit that stores the carbon storage amount determined by the carbon storage amount determination unit 12.
- Reference numeral 14 denotes a planting tree type that determines the type of tree to be planted in a plantation where a project is to be started based on the carbon storage amount stored in the carbon storage amount storage unit 13 ( ⁇ ).
- Reference numeral 15 denotes a tree type database in which the tree type and information on each tree referred to when the planting / species determination unit 14 determines the tree type are defined in advance.
- Reference numeral 16 designates a plan for an afforestation business by using a simulation based on the tree species determined by the planting tree species determining unit 14 and the carbon storage amount stored in the carbon storage amount storage unit 13. It is a planning department to do.
- Reference numeral 17 denotes a plan database that stores the plans made by the planning unit 16.
- Reference numeral 18 denotes an indirect method that predicts indirect effects that will occur when tree planting is performed based on the plan stored in the plan database 17 and stores the prediction result in the plan database 17. This is the impact prediction unit.
- Reference numeral 19 indicates a risk that may occur when afforestation is carried out based on the plan stored in the planning database 17, and the prediction result is used as a planning schedule. This is the risk prediction section stored in 17.
- Reference numeral 20 denotes a plan output unit that outputs plans, indirect effects, and risks stored in the plan database 17 to the plantation terminal 3 via a display internet 4 (not shown).
- Reference numeral 21 denotes an indirect impact information collection unit that collects information on the indirect impact of tree planting around the plantation input from the plantation terminal 3.
- Reference numeral 22 denotes a risk information collection unit that collects information on risks caused by plantation input from the plantation terminal 3.
- Reference numeral 23 indicates the current status information, the indirect impact information, and the risk information from the current status information collection unit 11, the indirect impact information collection unit 21, and the risk information collection unit 22, respectively, and based on these information, the planning database 1 7 is a plan achievement status determination unit that determines the achievement status of the plan stored in 7.
- Reference numeral 24 denotes a plan reviewing unit that reviews the plan based on the achievement status determination result of the plan achievement status determination unit 23 and stores the revised plan in the plan database 17.
- the afforestation company selects a number of candidate afforestation sites, Set up a place.
- At the plantation office at least one plantation terminal 3 will be installed.
- the current status information collection unit 11 instructs the plantation terminal 3 to input the current status information.
- the plantation worker inputs the forest survey results from the plantation terminal 3.
- the forest survey result here means that in the reforestation candidate area AO with a known area shown in Fig. 3, arbitrary local areas A1 to A7 are determined, and all the trees in each of the local areas A1 to A7 are determined. It is information on the results of surveying the breast height diameter and tree height, and consists of information for identifying candidate afforestation sites and local areas, and the breast height diameter and height of trees in each local area.
- the current status information collection unit 11 receives the forest survey result information and passes it to the carbon stock determination unit 12.
- the carbon storage determining unit 12 determines and determines the carbon storage by estimating the carbon storage by the following formula (Step S
- the obtained stem weight Wt dry is multiplied by the carbon content rate 05 , and further multiplied by the expansion factor 1.6 to obtain the carbon content including the branches and leaves. This carbon content is the carbon content of one tree.
- This calculation of carbon content is performed for all trees, and the obtained carbon content is added to obtain the carbon stock in one local area. This calculation is performed for all the local regions A1 to A7, and the average carbon storage amount Ct (CtonZha) per unit area is calculated. This value is the value of the carbon stock (average carbon stock per unit area) in the plantation area AO. Note that the amount of carbon storage here is proportional to the amount of carbon dioxide absorbed by existing trees up to the present time. Therefore, the carbon storage amount may be multiplied by a predetermined coefficient to obtain the carbon dioxide absorption amount.
- the carbon stock determining unit 12 compares the obtained carbon stock with a predetermined threshold value, and determines a candidate afforestation site in one of the following three afforestation site classifications (a) to (c). According to the result of this plantation classification, the area of degraded secondary forest and zero carbon stock Select a region and decide on afforestation.
- the calculated carbon stock is 0.6 to 9.6 C tonZha, it is classified as a deteriorated secondary forest. This is an area where it is necessary to conduct a new afforestation project because no carbon stock can be expected.
- the forest is classified as a secondary forest with a large amount of carbon stock. This is an area where it is necessary to conserve current forests in order to be able to expect sufficient carbon stocks even at the present time.
- the calculated carbon stock is less than 0.6 C t onZha, which is considered to be almost zero, it is classified as zero carbon stock. This is an area where new afforestation needs to be carried out.
- the carbon stock determining unit 12 stores the obtained carbon stock and the determined plantation land classification in the carbon stock storing unit 13, and terminates the carbon stock determining process for the planting tree type determining unit 14. Notify that Based on the carbon stock and the tree plantation classification results obtained here, the degraded secondary forest area and the candidate forest planting site with zero carbon stock will be the forest plantations where the tree planting project will be carried out.
- the planting tree type determination unit 14 reads out the carbon storage amount and the plantation classification stored in the carbon storage storage unit 13 and selects the type of tree to be planted for each plantation classification. Determine (step S2).
- the tree species is determined by referring to the tree species data stored in the tree species database 15 in advance. ⁇
- the tree species data stored in the species database 15 is based on the “standard growth amount”, “cutting time J”, “standard timber price”, “density when planting”, and “thinning” for each type of plant. Case density, degree of risk, soil suitable for planting, climate suitable for planting, and average carbon content are defined.
- the planting tree species determining unit 14 refers to the tree species database 15 and selects and determines a tree species that matches the readout carbon storage amount and the plantation area classification.
- the planting tree type determining unit 14 notifies the planning unit 16 of the tree type selected and determined here.
- the planning unit 16 drafts a plan for the afforestation business (step S3). Total The planning is based on the following simulation results of the planting and logging plan.
- the optimal afforestation business plan for the purpose of afforestation is formulated in the following order (1) Perform in (10).
- the growth prediction of the average tree height and average breast height diameter is performed from the measured data of the existing forest, and then the density reduction or the density control according to the aging of the forest after planting. make a plan. Growth forecasting is based on an approximation of the growth curve.
- H i m i ⁇ (l—Lh i ⁇ e xp (-K i t))
- mi, Lhi, ki, Ldi, and ki are constants
- t is the forest age.
- a well-known growth curve such as a rodistic curve or Gompertz curve can be used, but it is not limited to these curves.
- a table may be used in which forest age, mean height and mean breast height diameter correspond.
- the relationship between the average diameter and the standard deviation of the diameter, the minimum diameter, etc., determined from any forest age, is determined, and the number distribution for each diameter floor is determined using an appropriate diameter distribution model formula.
- the distribution function should take a shape close to the actual diameter distribution. Normal distribution may be used when the forest age is young, but the Weibull function is often used for the distribution of trees in normal forests.
- a is called a position parameter
- b is called a scale parameter
- c is called a shape parameter.
- o 2 b 2 ⁇ A (1 + 2Xc) - ⁇ 2 (1 + 1 zo c) ⁇ .
- ⁇ (s) S. ⁇ x s — 1 e— x dx, D: average diameter, a, b, c: parameters Because of the property of overnight, if n and ⁇ 2 are known,
- ⁇ (s) 1 - 0. 57710166 (s - 1) + 0. 98585399 (s - 1) 2 - 0. 87642182 (s - 1) 3 + 0. 8328212 (s- l) 4 - 0. 5684729 ( (s-l) 5 + 0.25482049 (s-l) 6 + 0.055 993 (s- 1) 7
- the minimum diameter is relatively large because the pressure trees are removed. In forests where thinning has not been performed, many pressure trees remain and the minimum diameter is small. Minimum diameter a is also flat In most cases, regression can be performed with the average diameter D. However, a constant value does not significantly affect the shape of the distribution regardless of the average diameter.
- the area of one diameter floor from any diameter di to d + 1 is calculated from the distribution function to find the ratio for each diameter floor, and then multiplied by the number of timber (number of trees Zha) to obtain 1 Number distribution per diameter floor per ha.
- the standard stem shape is determined according to the degree of perfection for each tree species. It is more convenient to use an nth-order curve for the standard stem shape, and a cubic curve is usually sufficient. An example is shown below.
- the height of the tree -1.3111 is 1
- the diameter of the breast height is 1
- the tip of the tree height is the origin (0, 0)
- the height of the tree is the X-axis from the tip to the root
- Plot it on the y-axis and approximate it with a cubic curve y ax + bx 2 + cx 3 that passes through the origin and the breast height (1, 0.5).
- X i the height of the site where the diameter was measured
- d i the diameter of the site at the height of h i
- D the breast height diameter
- a cubic curve is approximated from these values by the method of least squares. This cubic curve is a skinned curve.
- the diameter distribution is calculated from the average diameter of any forest age using the standard deviation of the diameter, the relationship with the minimum diameter, etc., and the tree height at each diameter floor is calculated using the above relational expression.
- the log volume obtained when the trees on the floor are sampled is calculated, and these are applied to all diameter floors to obtain the log volume by diameter obtained from the entire forest.
- the diameter of the log when this tree is felled and timbered can be obtained from the standard stem form.
- the diameter of an arbitrary height can be calculated from the standard stem shape multiplied by the tree height and the diameter multiplied by the breast height diameter as this tree shape.
- this tree is cut from the root, for example, every 4 m, and its diameter and volume are calculated, and the number of trees per ha is multiplied to total the volume for each diameter.
- the volume is calculated by the diameter excluding the thickness of the skin.
- the minimum breast height diameter D min to the maximum breast height diameter D max to obtain a volume per 1 ha. If the area is further multiplied, it is possible to obtain the total volume per diameter floor of the entire target forest.
- the sales amount of the entire forest stand is estimated by multiplying the volume and the amount of money by diameter and multiplying them.
- the volume before and after thinning is calculated by changing the number before and after thinning.
- Thinning is common during the forest cultivation stage. The purpose is to remove the inferior trees by thinning and promote the growth of the remaining trees, and at the same time, to generate income in the middle. Diameter growth after thinning is usually good, but the extent to which growth is accelerated depends on tree species, topography, soil, rainfall, tree density before and after thinning, and is not generally understood yet, I have no choice but to ask. Therefore, for the sake of convenience, it is assumed that thinning of both large and small trees is performed almost equally, or that thinning of both large and small trees on both sides of the distribution is mainly performed, and the average diameter before and after thinning does not change. Estimate only that it decreases. The thinned timber volume is the difference in the timber volume for this number of cuts.
- the main cutting (clear cutting)
- the timber corresponding to the average diameter, average tree height, and number of standing trees shall be output as it is.
- the main cutting shall be clear cutting, and all the calculated volume will be output.
- the planting plan is developed by solving it by a linear programming method that maximizes the revenue minus the cost.
- n species of trees will be planted on a standless land with a target area of 100,000 ha, and the project period will be 60 years in the future, with a 1-year period of 5 years and a 12-minute planting plan.
- main cutting cutting
- one of n species will be selected for reforestation.
- the objective variable the objective variable
- V i, k Volume per ha by main cutting of tree species i, k age (m 3 Zha)
- BT i, k species i, lumber prices (SZM 3) per m 3 by thinning k age classes 81 1 £: stem volume per ha by thinning species k age class (m 3 Zh a)
- X i , j, k Total variable, stand area of the j-th stage of tree species i, k-age class (ha)
- H i, j Total logging cost in the jth period ⁇ "Tree species i main logging and transportation cost ($ Zm 3 )
- BH i, j Total variable expenditure in the jth period for the tree type i Thinning and logging cost ($ / m m 3 ).
- the profit is equal to or more than a certain value, other elements may be prioritized over the profit. For example, we estimate the amount of carbon fixation based on afforestation and give priority to the amount of carbon fixation when profits are above a certain level. In addition, if the transaction of the carbon fixed amount is possible, the income according to the carbon fixed amount may be added to the profit.
- the amount of carbon fixed here is defined as the amount of carbon stock that is obtained by performing tree planting for a predetermined period of time.
- the tree species to be planted and the planting area are determined for each plantation area, and the tree species and planting area to be planted for each plantation area become a tree planting business plan.
- 16 stores the drafted plan in the plan database 17.
- the Planning Department 16 also divides the afforestation project period (normally 30 years) into multiple parts (for example, 30 divisions), and calculates the tree growth change for each of the divided periods (1 year). It is stored in the planning database 17.
- This growth change amount is stored as a change in the carbon storage amount obtained by the above-described calculation formula for determining the carbon storage amount.
- the indirect impact prediction unit 18 reads out the plan information from the plan database 17 and executes the plan according to the surrounding environment. Predict the effect (step S4). In particular, anticipate negative impacts on afforestation where the goal is to maximize carbon fixation.
- the types of indirect effects are:
- values predicted based on preliminary surveys are stored in advance for each size of the tree planting project and the environment of the tree planting site, and values corresponding to the planned plan are read and predicted.
- the indirect impact prediction unit 18 records the predicted indirect impact in the planning database 17.
- the risk prediction unit '18 reads the plan information from the plan database 17 and predicts a risk that may occur when executing the plan (step Step S5).
- the type of risk is
- values predicted based on preliminary surveys are stored in advance for each size of the tree planting project and the environment of the tree planting site, and the values corresponding to the planned plan are read and predicted.
- the risk prediction unit 19 stores the predicted risk in the plan database 17.
- plan output section 20 reads out the plan information stored in the plan database 17 and outputs the plan information to a display (not shown) or to the plantation terminal 3 via the Internet 4.
- a plan for the tree planting project is output, and the tree planting company implements the tree planting project based on the plan (step S6).
- the planning operation may be performed again and the plan may be reviewed to reduce the indirect effects and risks. In this way, it is possible to conduct an accurate business evaluation by taking into account indirect effects and risks when planning.
- the plantation implementer inputs the current status information such as the growth status of the forest from the plantation terminal 3 and transmits it to the plantation business planning system 1.
- This current status information is received by the current status information collection unit 11 and notified to the plan achievement status determination unit 23.
- the plantation implementer inputs the information of the indirect impact from the plantation terminal 3 and transmits it to the plantation business planning system 1.
- This indirect impact information is received by the indirect impact information collection unit 21 and notified to the plan achievement status determination unit 23.
- the plantation implementer inputs risk information from the plantation terminal 3 and transmits the information to the plantation business planning system 1.
- Step S7 This risk information is received by the risk information collection unit 22 and notified to the plan achievement status determination unit 23.
- the plan achievement status determination unit 23 reads the plan information from the plan database 17 and compares the plan information with the information obtained from each information collection unit to determine the achievement status of the plan.
- Step S7 First, based on the current status information obtained by the current status information collection unit 11, the amount of carbon stock is determined according to the procedure described above, and stored in the calculated amount of carbon storage and the plan database 17. The achievement rate is calculated by comparing with the stored carbon stock. For indirect impacts and risks, calculate the ratio of the current situation to the plan.
- This determination result is output to a display (not shown) or a printer, and is also output to the plan review unit 24.
- the plan reviewing section 24 reviews the plan if the plan has not been achieved, based on the results of the determination of the achievement status.
- the plan reviewing unit 24 outputs to the display or the printer a candidate for the cause of the unachieved plan, which is stored internally in advance, based on the determination result notified from the plan achievement status determination unit 23.
- the worker estimates the cause of the unachieved plan with reference to the cause candidates, and inputs the estimated cause to the plan reviewing unit 24 from a keyboard (not shown).
- the plan reviewing unit 24 outputs a good or bad measure defined in advance for each cause.
- the worker takes measures by referring to the post-measures (Step S9).
- the plan reviewing section 24 reviews the plan by re-planning the plan based on the plan information stored in the plan database 17 (step S10).
- the plan reviewing section 24 newly stores the revised plan in the plan database 17.
- the indirect influence predicting section 18 newly predicts the indirect effect by the above-described operation, and stores the result in the plan database 17.
- the risk prediction unit 19 newly performs risk prediction by the above-described operation, and stores the result in the plan database 17.
- Steps S7 to S10 shown in FIG. 2 are repeatedly executed periodically until the planning period of the afforestation project ends.
- the tree planting business plan is formulated based on the current state of the tree plantation, and the indirect impacts and risks are predicted, so that the tree planting business plan can be easily formulated. Also, during the execution of the plan, based on the current status information, indirect impact information, and risk information Then, the status of achievement of the plan was determined, and the plan was reviewed based on the results of this determination, so that the afforestation project plan could be executed without fail.
- a program for realizing the functions of the respective processing units in FIG. 1 is recorded on a computer-readable recording medium, and the program recorded on the recording medium is read into a computer system and executed to execute a tree planting business.
- a planning process may be performed.
- the “computer system” includes hardware such as OS and peripheral devices.
- the “computer system” also includes a homepage providing environment (or display environment) if a WWW system is used.
- the “computer-readable recording medium” refers to a portable medium such as a flexible disk, a magneto-optical disk, a ROM, a CD-ROM, and a storage device such as a hard disk built in a computer system.
- a “computer-readable recording medium” is a volatile memory (RAM) inside a computer system that becomes a server or a client when a program is transmitted via a network such as the Internet or a communication line such as a telephone line. ), Such as those holding programs for a certain period of time.
- RAM volatile memory
- the above program may be transmitted from a computer system storing the program in a storage device or the like to another computer system via a transmission medium or by a transmission wave in the transmission medium.
- the “transmission medium” for transmitting a program refers to a medium having a function of transmitting information, such as a network (communication network) such as the Internet or a communication line (communication line) such as a telephone line.
- the above program may be for realizing a part of the functions described above.
- a program that can realize the above-described functions in combination with a program already recorded in the computer system that is, a so-called difference file (difference program) may be used.
Description
Claims
Priority Applications (3)
Application Number | Priority Date | Filing Date | Title |
---|---|---|---|
US10/505,937 US7062450B2 (en) | 2002-11-18 | 2003-11-18 | System and program for afforestation and/or reforestation business |
JP2004553198A JPWO2004046986A1 (ja) | 2002-11-18 | 2003-11-18 | 植林事業計画システム及び植林事業計画プログラム |
AU2003280858A AU2003280858A1 (en) | 2002-11-18 | 2003-11-18 | Tree-planting project system and tree-planting project program |
Applications Claiming Priority (2)
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JP2002333526 | 2002-11-18 | ||
JP2002-333526 | 2002-11-18 |
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WO2004046986A1 true WO2004046986A1 (ja) | 2004-06-03 |
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PCT/JP2003/014679 WO2004046986A1 (ja) | 2002-11-18 | 2003-11-18 | 植林事業計画システム及び植林事業計画プログラム |
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US (1) | US7062450B2 (ja) |
JP (1) | JPWO2004046986A1 (ja) |
AU (1) | AU2003280858A1 (ja) |
WO (1) | WO2004046986A1 (ja) |
Cited By (4)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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KR101198509B1 (ko) | 2011-03-29 | 2012-11-06 | 공주대학교 산학협력단 | 나무의 이산화탄소 흡수 정도를 학습하는 교구 |
JP2018060302A (ja) * | 2016-10-04 | 2018-04-12 | 山秀情報システム株式会社 | 原木販売管理システム |
JP6906824B1 (ja) * | 2020-12-11 | 2021-07-21 | 日本森林総研株式会社 | 情報処理装置、樹木の成長率予測システム、樹木の成長率予測方法及びプログラム |
WO2023204254A1 (ja) * | 2022-04-19 | 2023-10-26 | 株式会社小松製作所 | 林業機械および監視システム |
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US7346589B1 (en) * | 2002-04-30 | 2008-03-18 | Camden Bradley T | Standardized method for pricing tree services |
FI117309B (fi) * | 2003-03-31 | 2006-08-31 | Geodeettinen Laitos | Menetelmä, laitteisto ja ohjelma puiden kasvun määrittämiseksi |
US20080015711A1 (en) * | 2006-06-27 | 2008-01-17 | Normand Charland | Systems and methods for forest harvest management |
WO2009015069A1 (en) * | 2007-07-20 | 2009-01-29 | The Trustees Of Columbia University In The City Of New York | Methods and systems of evaluating forest management and harvesting schemes |
AU2008345628B2 (en) * | 2007-12-20 | 2012-03-08 | Geodigital International Inc. | Remote sensing and probabilistic sampling based method for determining the carbon dioxide volume of a forest |
US20100145716A1 (en) * | 2008-12-08 | 2010-06-10 | Ning Zeng | Carbon sequestration via wood burial and storage |
US8275547B2 (en) * | 2009-09-30 | 2012-09-25 | Utility Risk Management Corporation, Llc | Method and system for locating a stem of a target tree |
US8352410B2 (en) * | 2009-12-17 | 2013-01-08 | Utility Risk Management Corporation, Llc | Method and system for estimating vegetation growth relative to an object of interest |
US8680994B2 (en) | 2010-12-30 | 2014-03-25 | Utility Risk Management Corporation, Llc | Method for locating vegetation having a potential to impact a structure |
CN106993044B (zh) * | 2017-04-10 | 2023-11-07 | 生迪智慧科技有限公司 | 终端、基于灯的碳补偿处理系统和方法 |
US10569875B2 (en) | 2017-09-29 | 2020-02-25 | Deere & Company | Using unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs or drones) in forestry imaging and assessment applications |
US11494799B1 (en) * | 2021-05-14 | 2022-11-08 | William C. Rehm | Supporting action tracking and deeds between multiple parties |
JP2023170706A (ja) * | 2022-05-19 | 2023-12-01 | 横河電機株式会社 | 判定装置、判定方法、および、判定プログラム |
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- 2003-11-18 US US10/505,937 patent/US7062450B2/en not_active Expired - Fee Related
- 2003-11-18 JP JP2004553198A patent/JPWO2004046986A1/ja active Pending
- 2003-11-18 AU AU2003280858A patent/AU2003280858A1/en not_active Abandoned
- 2003-11-18 WO PCT/JP2003/014679 patent/WO2004046986A1/ja active Application Filing
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JP2002073911A (ja) * | 2000-06-01 | 2002-03-12 | Nkk Corp | 廃棄物処理施設の計画装置及び計画方法 |
JP2002117243A (ja) * | 2000-10-11 | 2002-04-19 | Sumitomo Forestry Co Ltd | 花壇施工支援システム |
JP2002203036A (ja) * | 2000-12-28 | 2002-07-19 | Iorina:Kk | 建設系産業廃棄物排出量算出装置及びその方法 |
Cited By (4)
Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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KR101198509B1 (ko) | 2011-03-29 | 2012-11-06 | 공주대학교 산학협력단 | 나무의 이산화탄소 흡수 정도를 학습하는 교구 |
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JP6906824B1 (ja) * | 2020-12-11 | 2021-07-21 | 日本森林総研株式会社 | 情報処理装置、樹木の成長率予測システム、樹木の成長率予測方法及びプログラム |
WO2023204254A1 (ja) * | 2022-04-19 | 2023-10-26 | 株式会社小松製作所 | 林業機械および監視システム |
Also Published As
Publication number | Publication date |
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US7062450B2 (en) | 2006-06-13 |
JPWO2004046986A1 (ja) | 2006-03-16 |
US20050087110A1 (en) | 2005-04-28 |
AU2003280858A1 (en) | 2004-06-15 |
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