US20060217994A1 - Method and system for harnessing collective knowledge - Google Patents

Method and system for harnessing collective knowledge Download PDF

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Publication number
US20060217994A1
US20060217994A1 US11/088,901 US8890105A US2006217994A1 US 20060217994 A1 US20060217994 A1 US 20060217994A1 US 8890105 A US8890105 A US 8890105A US 2006217994 A1 US2006217994 A1 US 2006217994A1
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Prior art keywords
prediction
user
rating
stock
users
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US11/088,901
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David Gardner
Tracy Sigler
Todd Etter
Robert Etter
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Motley Fool LLC
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Motley Fool LLC
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Priority to US11/088,901 priority Critical patent/US20060217994A1/en
Priority to US11/267,179 priority patent/US7882006B2/en
Assigned to THE MOTLEY FOOL, INC. reassignment THE MOTLEY FOOL, INC. ASSIGNMENT OF ASSIGNORS INTEREST (SEE DOCUMENT FOR DETAILS). Assignors: GARDNER, DAVID HERR, ETTER, JR., ROBERT GLENN, ETTER, TODD LEWIS, SIGLER, TRACY RANDALL
Priority to JP2008502973A priority patent/JP2008537817A/ja
Priority to PCT/US2006/001235 priority patent/WO2006104534A2/en
Priority to US11/522,933 priority patent/US7813986B2/en
Publication of US20060217994A1 publication Critical patent/US20060217994A1/en
Assigned to BIA DIGITAL PARTNERS SBIC II LP reassignment BIA DIGITAL PARTNERS SBIC II LP SECURITY AGREEMENT Assignors: MOTLEY FOOL ASSET MANAGEMENT, LLC, THE MOTLEY FOOL HOLDINGS, INC., THE MOTLEY FOOL, LLC
Assigned to SILICON VALLEY BANK reassignment SILICON VALLEY BANK SECURITY AGREEMENT Assignors: MOTLEY FOOL, LLC, THE
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    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING OR CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q40/00—Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
    • G—PHYSICS
    • G06—COMPUTING OR CALCULATING; COUNTING
    • G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
    • G06Q40/00—Finance; Insurance; Tax strategies; Processing of corporate or income taxes
    • G06Q40/06—Asset management; Financial planning or analysis

Definitions

  • the present invention is directed to a method and system for presenting aggregated information and, in one embodiment, to a method and system for presenting aggregated information related to stocks.
  • the present invention provides a method, system, and apparatus for aggregating community member/users' knowledge in an efficient manner, independent of the subject matter of the knowledge.
  • the present invention provides a method, system, and apparatus for aggregating community member/users' knowledge with respect to predictions of future events.
  • the present invention also enables community member/users to rate each other's information and predictions about future events, independent of the subject matter of the information and predictions.
  • Another non-limiting embodiment of the present invention enables community member/users to be rated (e.g., by a computer system) based on the accuracy of the information previously presented by each member/user, as well as by the sentiment of the other community member/users.
  • the present invention is especially useful in the field of stock market analysis.
  • a method, system, and apparatus that enable aggregation of community member/users' information, such as opinions, predictions, and other types of evaluations.
  • This information may be related to any type of subject matter, including (but not limited to): financial instrument performance, financial instrument value, market performance, market value, monetary exchange rates, sports teams' performances, professional athletes' performances, college athletes' performances, national and international events, as well as many other types of subject matter apparent to those of skill in the art.
  • the present invention also provides, as a non-limiting embodiment, a public index database of “subject snapshots” on individual subjects of interest such as financial instruments (e.g., stocks). These subject snapshots may be broken down by various characteristics (e.g., by a particular advisor, topic, technology related to a stock) or other factors known to those of skill in the art.
  • the subject snapshots bring together the most interesting and relevant information by aggregating user input together with publications by professional information providers (such as advisors' publications).
  • FIG. 1 represents a member/user interface according to an embodiment of the present invention.
  • FIG. 2 represents a member/user interface according to another embodiment of the present invention.
  • FIG. 3 represents a non-limiting example of a rating screen presented to a member/user
  • FIG. 4 represents another non-limiting example of a member/user interface according to the present invention.
  • FIG. 5 represents a non-limiting illustration of a computer that may be used to implement the method and/or system of the present invention
  • FIG. 6 represents another non-limiting example of a member/user interface according to the present invention.
  • FIG. 7 illustrates another non-limiting example of a member/user interface according to the present invention.
  • FIG. 8 represents another non-limiting example of a member/user interface according to the present invention.
  • FIG. 9 represents yet another non-limiting example of a member/user interface according to the present invention.
  • FIG. 10 represents another non-limiting example of a member/user interface according to the present invention.
  • FIG. 11 represents another non-limiting illustration of a member/user interface according to the present invention.
  • FIG. 12 represents another non-limiting example of a member/user interface according to the present invention.
  • FIG. 13 represents another non-limiting example of a member/user interface according to the present invention.
  • FIG. 1 illustrates a non-limiting example of a member/user interface according to the present invention.
  • This member/user interface may be provided to any individual seeking to participate in the community.
  • a “member/user” refers to an individual accessing the system and/or method of the present invention.
  • the present invention provides, as one non-limiting aspect, a reward for the community member/users who outperform the experts, such as discounts on future services or other rewards known to those of skill in the art.
  • a further aspect of the present invention enables monetization of the features of the invention. For example, it is possible to charge community member/users a nominal fee to view the top performers.
  • the top performers may be ranked by industry, active stocks, or a member/user's overall success rate. Other factors known to those of skill in the art may be used to select which performers are chosen as the top performers. Additionally, the number of performers chosen may be varied based on the needs of the application.
  • different levels of access to the member/user interface may be provided, depending on a particular individual's level of subscription. For example, if an individual has paid more money for a subscription to be part of the community, that individual may access all features of the interface. By contrast, if an individual has not paid for a subscription to the community, that member/user might be able to access only rudimentary features of the member/user interface (or may not be able to access the member/user interface at all).
  • the levels of access offered by the provider of the member/user interface (hereafter, “the provider”) may be determined according to the provider's needs, and are within the level of ordinary skill in the art.
  • a member/user is presented with a particular stock to rate.
  • the member/user may select this stock from a list of stocks supplied by the provider, or may enter his own selection of a stock available on any stock market.
  • Stock markets may include, but are not limited to, the New York Stock Exchange, NASDAQ, the London Stock Exchange, as well as any other type of market known to those of skill in the art.
  • the present invention is also not limited to stock markets, as explained above, and is equally applicable to any situation in which information may be aggregated and/or performance may be assessed.
  • the “Fool Rating” (also referred to as a “Bull/Bear Rating”) is 50%.
  • This Fool Rating may be determined by what the member/users think about a particular prediction by another member/user or by an advisor.
  • the Fool Rating may also reflect how any member/users believe that a particular stock will out perform the market. For example, Fool Ratings are illustrated for a variety of different stocks in FIGS. 2, 6 , 7 , 9 - 1 1 , and 13 .
  • a Fool Rating over 50% means that more than half of the member/users believe that the selected stock will outperform the market.
  • the Fool Rating may account for a particular member/user's past performance at making accurate predictions. For example, the weight given to an individual's opinion in calculating the Fool Rating may be reduced if that particular member/user frequently makes inaccurate or incorrect predictions. The weight given to an individual's predictions may also be raised when calculating the Fool Rating if the particular member/user's predictions are frequently accurate or correct. The weighting may account for the relative levels of difficulty for each prediction.
  • the member/user interface of FIG. 1 also provides the stock symbol, the last known stock price, as well as a link to news information related to the selected stock.
  • the member/user interface presents the member/user with an opportunity to rate the selected stock.
  • the member/user may select options such as “outperform,” “underperform,” “match,” as well as other performance indicators known to those of skill in the art. As explained below, the member/user may compare the selected stock's performance to any given number of benchmarks.
  • the member/user may also provide commentary supporting his selection.
  • This commentary (referred to as a “60 second pitch”) may optionally be used by other member/users of the community who are assessing the rating member/user's likelihood of successful rating or when making their own ratings. Examples of the input field for the 60 second pitch are shown in FIGS. 1, 6 , 7 , 9 - 11 , and 13 .
  • the provider may also collect the member/users' commentary and may provide an aggregated listing of the commentary to member/users. This aggregated listing of commentary may be provided in any format known to those of skill in the art. Non-limiting examples of aggregated commentary are shown in FIGS. 6 and 7 . The user may select any of the listed commentaries to view more details.
  • the amount of information provided to the member/user for each commentary may be determined based on the provider's needs. Additionally, the amount of information provided to each member/user may depend on the subscription rate paid by the member/user, the frequency of use of the present invention by the member/user, as well as other factors.
  • Another aspect of the invention provides a bull/bear sentiment tool that invites any member/user to submit (e.g., via a form) his prediction as to whether an investment (e.g., a stock, mutual fund, option or future) will outperform or underperform a benchmark during a given time period (e.g., 12 months).
  • the benchmark may include a market-wide index or average (e.g., the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the S&P 500 , FTSE 100 , or the NASDAQ Composite Index) or a sector specific index (e.g., the semiconductor or transportation indices).
  • picks may be ranked in a number of ways, including total number of picks by member/users, likelihood of outperforming the market based on member/users' picks, likelihood of underperforming the market according to the member/users' picks, as well as by a weighted percentage based on member/users' past successful picks (e.g., a stock picked by a member/user who frequently correctly predicts the stock's performance might be given a higher rating than a stock picked by a member/user who frequently incorrectly predicts that stock's performance).
  • FIGS. 2, 8 , 9 , and 13 Examples of access to other member/user's picks are illustrated in FIGS. 2, 8 , 9 , and 13 .
  • the member/users may also access additional information related to the picks offered by the provider, at the information provider's discretion.
  • the most popular picks and other information may be provided based on a time restricted manner (e.g., the most popular picks over the last three months).
  • Another non-limiting example of the present invention provides for a member/user to access other member/users' individual performance information.
  • the individual performance information may be determined and presented by the provider, at the provider's discretion.
  • a member/user may also access a quantity of most recommended posts, as illustrated in FIG. 6 . While FIG. 6 shows that the five most recommended posts from the last three months may be selected, the member/user and/or the provider may select different quantities of postings and different time durations, as desired.
  • the raw player rating may be expressed as a number between 0 and 100, for example, as the official member/user rating displayed to the member/user.
  • every member/user may be rated according to two factors: how often the member/user is correct, and by how much the member/user is correct.
  • the score rating represents the number of percentage points by which a member/user is correct or incorrect across every single contest in which the member/user is active. This score rating also includes a member/user's success both past and present. For instance, if a member/user picked three stocks to outperform, and each of these stocks did outperform, and beat the market respectively by 5.06 percentage points, 12.34 percentage points, and 107.94 percentage points, the member/user's score rating would be (+125.34). If the second stock had underperformed by 12.34 points, the member/user's score would be (+100.66). According to this non-limiting example, it is possible for scores to be negative. In short, the score rating represents the total number of percentage points by which a member/user is ahead or behind in the game.
  • the “percent right” is the percentage of time that the market agrees with the member/user's selection. If a member/user has 38 total contests, and the member/user is correct in 19 of those contests, the member/user's percent right is 50%. The percent right is computed as a simple percentage of correctness over all past and present contests. (Of course, it would be possible to calculate the percent right based on a selected group of contests as well.) According to this non-limiting example, a member/user winning 20 out of 38 contests would have a percent right score of 52.63%.
  • the number of member/users is not divisible by 100, it is possible to take the number 100 and divide by the number of players to obtain the player ratings. For example, for 7,394 member/users, the highest score among the 7,394 member/users would be given a 100, the second highest a rating of (100 ⁇ 0.0135), which is 99.9865, and so on. This 0.0135 number is derived from 100 divided by 7,394. Alternatively, the lowest rated member/user would receive a score of .0135, the second lowest member/user a 0.270, etc. The scores may be rounded to the nearest tenth decimal or other factor, as desired by the provider.
  • the raw player rating is not the final rating because force ranking all player ratings between 0-100 provides the easiest display for the provider. Other methods of force ranking are possible, depending on the needs of the provider.
  • a member/user To encourage member/user participation, a member/user must have at least seven open active contests, according to a non-limiting aspect of the invention (the number seven is a non-limiting example, and may be changed based on the discretion of the provider). If at any time a member/user falls below this minimum threshold, he will not earn a visible player rating and is considered inactive. Simply put, member/users who do not maintain enough activity may not receive official ratings.
  • the provider may still track all of that member/user's data and predictions. While member/users who do not meet the minimum criteria are considered inactive and will not show up on a hot player list or other game page, these member/users are allowed and encouraged to enter more ratings as soon as possible to reach the minimum at any time. Once the member/user has reached the minimum, all of that member/user's past and present contests may be tracked and may affect stock ratings, etc.
  • each member/user may only have one contest for that stock.
  • a member/user may not artificially inflate his score or earn minimum active status by playing a given stock more than once at a time.
  • Each member/user may select a duration for each contest. There is no maximum or minimum duration required. It is also possible for a provider to measure a member/user's response rate using cookies and e-mails, as well as other tracking methods known to those of skill in the art. If the provider determines that the member/user is no longer active, it is possible for the provider to end that member/user's contest at any time after the member/user has been determined to be inactive.
  • members/users may be prevented from making initial predictions on stocks that are under $1.00 per share. However, if these stocks arrive at such a share price through bad performance of the stock, then the contest may continue.
  • the provider may select certain stocks not to be included in a contest, based on the provider's discretion.
  • the criteria that a provider may use may include stock price and/or volume of stocks traded, as non-limiting examples.
  • FIG. 3 illustrates a Microsoft prediction. This attachment may be viewed as the next step after FIGS. 1 or 2 . It shows that on 12/22/04 the member/user predicted that in one week (12/29/04) Microsoft will “outperform” the market. As is evident, on the date member/user made that prediction Microsoft's price was $22.96. If a member/user makes a prediction after the market to which the prediction is tied has closed, the opening price of the stock in that market may be used. Alternatively, it is possible to use the closing price of the stock, or an average of the two prices. Other price calculations may also be used, at the discretion of the provider or as requested by the member/user.
  • the member/user is not required to identify the price of Microsoft at the time of the prediction—the present invention may track the price at the time of prediction relative to the current price without the prediction price being identified to other member/users.
  • the current or latest price is $27.09 in FIG. 2 . In this example, if the member/user predicted that Microsoft would outperform the market, the member/user would be winning.
  • the member/user may also choose the duration of the prediction.
  • the choices are 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, 12 months, 24 months, and 36 months.
  • the premature withdrawal may impact that member/user's overall performance rating, at the discretion of the provider.
  • member/users may view information related to other member/users making related predictions.
  • member/users may view all other predictions related to Microsoft, in the non-limiting examples of FIGS. 8, 9 , and 13 .
  • Member/users may also view their prediction performances relative to the other member/users.
  • FIG. 12 illustrates an example of performance information that may be provided to a user.
  • the member/user using the “screen name” “TMFDiesel” has an aggregate rating of zero. This aggregate rating reflects that TMFDiesel has made only one prediction, which has not yet met its deadline (in the example of FIG. 12 , the deadline is 12/20/05, which at the time of the application is in the future).
  • FIG. 12 also provides stock related information for the member/user's reference with respect to the member/user's prediction.
  • FIG. 3 illustrates performance information in an alternative format.
  • the prediction information for member/users may be sorted and filtered in any way desired, based on the requirements of either the member/user or the information provider.
  • a member/user may view date, ticker, price, prediction, deadline, percent change, the market used, and whether or not the prediction is presently correct for as many other member/users as the information provider will permit (or as many other member/users as the member/user desires).
  • the member/user may sort this information using methods known to those of ordinary skill in the art. Non-limiting examples of the illustration of the information are shown in FIGS. 7, 9 , 10 , and 13 .
  • a member/user may also access additional information, such as related issues or updates, additional articles, and proprietary information such as the “Foolish 8” criteria.
  • the Foolish 8 criteria relate to revenues, growth rates, net profit margin, daily dollar volume, insider holdings, share price, relative strength, and operating cash flow for a given corporation.
  • the Foolish 8 criteria are based on a combination of business-related and market-related factors that were chosen to highlight eight attributes that investors should look for in small companies.
  • the first four business-level factors set minimum standards for the following things: earnings and sales growth (at least 25% in both cases), net profit margins (at least 7%), operating cash flow (a positive figure), and insider holdings (at least 10% ownership). Three of the four remaining Foolish 8 factors highlight stock market neighborhoods where good small companies are likely found.
  • Subject snapshots such as the one in FIG. 4 may be provided as an online page. These snapshots (also referred to “Fool's Eye View”) may appear with statistics, in a format similar to performance statistics appearing on a baseball card, for each stock covered by the provider. When a provider selects a new stock, the stock receives a snapshot. Snapshots on stocks not yet covered may also be requested by a member/user accessing the snapshot interface. The member/user may fill out a short submission form that may include information such as the stock's ticker symbol. On a periodic basis, the member/user requests may be reviewed and selected submitted symbols may be chosen to include new snapshots. Thus, for the present invention, an index of snapshots may be developed.
  • the Fool's Eye View is searchable (e.g., by stock ticker symbol). Through this feature, a member/user may enter a stock ticker symbol or other factor related to the stock to access the service snapshot for that stock. Proprietary information may also be linked to the service snapshot, so that members/users may access the proprietary information as desired (or as provided by the users).
  • This invention enables public expression of the community's estimate of stock performance.
  • the user when making a performance estimate, may include comments as to why the user selected a particular bull/bear evaluation. Additionally, users may be rewarded for making the correct judgments.
  • the present invention may also provide an indication of business strength and price attractiveness for any particular stock or group of stocks. This information may be gleaned from experts in the field, a particular professional advisor, or staff of The Motley Fool, as well as from other industry sources.
  • This notification may include additional information related to the features of the present invention (such as the member/user ranking system, etc.).
  • the notification may be in the form of an email message, a text message, an instant message, or other form known to those in the art.
  • FIG. 5 is a schematic illustration of a computer system for performing at least one of the functions of FIGS. 1-4 and 6 - 13 .
  • a computer 100 implements the method of the present invention, wherein the computer housing 102 houses a motherboard 104 which contains a CPU 106 , memory 108 (e.g., DRAM, ROM, EPROM, EEPROM, SRAM, SDRAM, and Flash RAM), and other optional special purpose logic devices (e.g., ASICs) or configurable logic devices (e.g., GAL and reprogrammable FPGA).
  • the computer 100 also includes plural input devices, (e.g., a keyboard 122 and mouse 124 ), and a display card 110 for controlling monitor 120 .
  • the computer system 100 further includes a floppy disk drive 114 ; other removable media devices (e.g., compact disc 119 , tape, and removable magneto-optical media (not shown)); and a hard disk 112 , or other fixed, high density media drives, connected using an appropriate device bus (e.g., a SCSI bus, an Enhanced IDE bus, or a Ultra DMA bus). Also connected to the same device bus or another device bus, the computer 100 may additionally include a compact disc reader 118 , a compact disc reader/writer unit (not shown) or a compact disc jukebox (not shown). Although compact disc 119 is shown in a CD caddy, the compact disc 1 19 can be inserted directly into CD-ROM drives which do not require caddies. In addition, a printer (not shown) may provide hard copies of the features illustrated in FIGS. 1-4 .
  • a printer may provide hard copies of the features illustrated in FIGS. 1-4 .
  • the system includes at least one computer readable medium.
  • Examples of computer readable media are compact discs 119 , hard disks 112 , floppy disks, tape, magneto-optical disks, PROMs (EPROM, EEPROM, Flash EPROM), DRAM, SRAM, SDRAM, etc.
  • the present invention includes software for controlling both the hardware of the computer 100 and for enabling the computer 100 to interact with a human user.
  • Such software may include, but is not limited to, device drivers, operating systems and user applications, such as development tools.
  • the computer readable media and the software thereon form a computer program product of the present invention for performing at least one of the functions of FIGS. 1-4 .
  • the computer code devices of the present invention can be any interpreted or executable code mechanism, including but not limited to scripts, interpreters, dynamic link libraries, Java classes, and complete executable programs.

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US11/088,901 2005-03-25 2005-03-25 Method and system for harnessing collective knowledge Abandoned US20060217994A1 (en)

Priority Applications (5)

Application Number Priority Date Filing Date Title
US11/088,901 US20060217994A1 (en) 2005-03-25 2005-03-25 Method and system for harnessing collective knowledge
US11/267,179 US7882006B2 (en) 2005-03-25 2005-11-07 System, method, and computer program product for scoring items based on user sentiment and for determining the proficiency of predictors
JP2008502973A JP2008537817A (ja) 2005-03-25 2006-01-13 ユーザ所感に基づいてアイテムに得点を付けるため、および予測者の熟練度を決定するための、システム、方法、およびコンピュータプログラム製品
PCT/US2006/001235 WO2006104534A2 (en) 2005-03-25 2006-01-13 Scoring items based on user sentiment and determining the proficiency of predictors
US11/522,933 US7813986B2 (en) 2005-03-25 2006-09-19 System, method, and computer program product for scoring items based on user sentiment and for determining the proficiency of predictors

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