TWI665570B - Power generation plan developing apparatus, power generation plan developing method, and recording medium - Google Patents

Abstract

In one embodiment, a power generation plan development device includes a power generation information processor for processing information about performance or a group of power generation facilities, the processor predicting the performance based on information about a natural environment, or Registering information about the facilities that belong to the group and information about one of the groups as a definition of the group. The device further includes a power generation plan creator to create a power generation plan for the facilities based on the performance or definitions. The creator creates a first plan and a second plan based on the effects predicted from the first data and the second data about the natural environment to create a third plan, or selects a At least any of the first group and the second group of load schedules to which the facility belongs to create the power generation plan based on the selected load schedule.

Description

Power generation plan development device, power generation plan development method, and recording medium

The embodiments described herein relate to a power generation plan development device, a power generation plan development method, and a recording medium.

The power generation unit includes a unit whose efficiency changes according to a natural environment such as weather, and a unit whose efficiency does not change. For example, steam and nuclear power generation units can stably generate electricity without many of the adverse effects of the natural environment. The maximum output hardly varies depending on the natural environment. In contrast, a power generation unit of a combined cycle power generation of a combined gas turbine and a steam turbine has a maximum output according to a temperature variation. More specifically, an increase in temperature reduces the density of the atmosphere, which reduces the amount of oxygen entering a combustor of one of the gas turbines. Therefore, the amount of fuel injected into the combustor is correspondingly reduced, and the maximum output of the gas turbine engine is reduced. Generally speaking, increasing the temperature from 5 ° C to 40 ° C reduces the maximum output of the gas turbine generator by about 20% to 30%. The steam turbine contains a condenser for converting steam to water. The performance of the condenser varies depending on the temperature of the seawater used to cool the steam. Therefore, the efficiency of the steam turbine varies according to the temperature of the seawater. In photovoltaic power generation units, the density of clouds in the sky and the intensity of sunlight change the incident energy of sunlight, which in turn changes the amount of electricity generated. In addition, in a power generation unit for wind power generation, the amount of power generated varies according to the strength of the wind. The amount of power generated by wind power increases with the strength of the wind. However, when the wind exceeds a specified value, power generation is stopped for safety reasons. In hydroelectric power generation units, the amount of power generated varies according to the volume of the river. As described above, in some types of power generation, the efficiency (power generation capacity) varies according to the natural environment such as the weather. Power generation units include units of various sizes, ranging from a unit having a large amount of power generation capacity through a single unit to a unit having a small amount of power generation capacity through each single unit. Regarding each power generation unit having a small amount of power generation capacity, control may be performed in some cases such that the power generation units are aggregated into a single group of power generation units. The control of multiple generating units aggregated into a group as described above is called GLC (Group Load Control). The use of power generation units of a specific size, in some cases to determine the amount of power generation, power generation instructions and power generation plans in groups. For example, regarding power generation units that use seawater to cool condensers, consider the adverse effects of warm seawater discharged into the sea on fisheries. In some cases, a total amount of warm seawater emissions is set between the power plant and the fishery operator One cap one contract. In this case, warm seawater emissions are proportional to power generation output. Therefore, not only the instantaneous total output of the generating units in the power plant but also the integrated total output for one day and the integrated total output for one month are limited. Therefore, the power generation units in the power plant are treated as a group of warm water discharge restriction units. In the combined cycle power generation in an early stage, a plurality of power generation units are grouped and a control device (GLC) that dispatches a single load instruction to one of the plurality of power generation units is provided. This is because the power generation capacity of each single power generation unit is small in the combined cycle power generation in the early stage, and if the load instruction is issued directly from a central power supply station to the respective power generation unit, the program at the central power supply station increases. On the other hand, currently, there occurs a situation in which an increase (upgrade) in the capacity of a power generation unit controlled by a control device (GLC) allows a load instruction to be issued directly from a central power supply station to one of the power generation units. Therefore, a situation occurs in which the number of members of a group increases or decreases at a specific point in time. As described above, there is a problem in which the performance of the power generation unit varies according to the natural environment and a problem related to the group. Here, the power generation amount of each power generation unit needs to meet the demanded power generation amount. When power generation is higher than demand, the frequency can increase and the voltage can increase. Conversely, when the amount of power generation is lower than demand, the frequency can be reduced and the voltage can be reduced. Therefore, an accurate estimation of the power generation amount of each power generation unit is required to achieve a power generation amount that meets the demand. The consistency between predicted demand and actual power generation is called actual simultaneous balance. In recent years, power generation operators and retail operators have been separated from each other. Therefore, power generation operators need to generate the amount of electricity they have promised to generate. Retail operators need to consume the amount of electricity they promise to sell to power consumers. Demands are called planned values simultaneously balanced. When the amount of power generated is less than or greater than the amount promised, the power generation operator must pay a penalty called an imbalance. Therefore, the power generation operator needs to grasp how the power generation of its own power generation unit changes in accordance with changes in the natural environment and reflect the changes in the power generation plan in order to achieve actual simultaneous balance and planned value simultaneous balance. In the power generation plan, power generation in a specific time period (for example, a day, a week, or a month) is planned in a specific time network (for example, a time interval such as one hour, 30 minutes, or 5 minutes). For example, in order to meet the demand or the promised power generation volume, the start-up timing and power generation output are planned for each of the one or more power generation type power generation units. In this case, it is also necessary to develop a plan that considers an economic portfolio with low power generation costs.

Embodiments will now be explained with reference to the accompanying drawings. In FIGS. 1 to 15, the same or similar components are denoted by the same element symbols, and overlapping explanations thereof are omitted. Various methods are known for developing power generation plans. For example, methods are known that cause multiple generators to operate in one unit and dispatch generator output to the generator. In addition, the following method is known: classify multiple generators into groups, increase the output of one group and decrease the output of another group in a specific demand stage, thereby achieving flexible dynamic load scheduling. However, no method has been considered that reflects the efficiency of each power generation unit in terms of dispatching. As described above, the conventional method cannot achieve the load scheduling in which the performance of each power generation unit is reflected (for example, the performance according to natural environment changes). In addition, in the case where the power generation units are grouped and the load is scheduled, it is not possible to achieve a load scheduling that reflects the performance of each power generation unit and the grouping. Conventionally, a transmission and distribution power operator, a power generation operator and a retail operator are in one company. Therefore, in one of the cases of determining the load scheduling of the generating units that meet the demand, even if a certain degree of difference may occur, the speculation of a large reserve power prevents a major problem from occurring. However, in one of the cases where the transmission and distribution operator was separated from the other operator as another company, a fine attributable to the imbalance occurred. To minimize imbalances, the efficiency of each power generation unit needs to be accurately reflected in the power generation plan. In the case where one of the plurality of power generation units is controlled by a group, it is necessary to develop a power generation plan that can support a change in the member configuration of the group and the performance of the group members at a specific point in time. In one embodiment, a power generation plan development device includes a power generation information processor configured to process information about performance or a group of power generation facilities, the power generation information processor predicting based on data about a natural environment The effectiveness of these power generation facilities, or registration of information about the power generation facilities that belong to the group and information about one of the groups as a definition of the group of the power generation facilities. The device further includes a power generation plan creator configured to create information about the performance of the power generation facilities predicted by the power generation information processor or the definition of the group registered by the power generation information processor. One of these power generation facilities is a power generation plan. The power generation plan creator creates a first power generation plan based on the effectiveness predicted from the first data about the natural environment, creates a second power generation plan based on the effectiveness predicted from the second data about the natural environment, and based on the first power generation plan And the second power generation plan to create a third power generation plan, or to select a load dispatch on a first group of power generation facilities with a first efficiency and a second group of power generation facilities with a second efficiency At least any of the group's load schedules and a power generation plan is created based on the selected load schedule. (First Embodiment) FIG. 1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a power generation plan development device according to a first embodiment. The power generation plan development device of FIG. 1 develops a power generation plan that defines the time to start a power generation unit and the unit operation to achieve the amount of power generation output that meets the demand and promised power generation. Power generation units are, for example, generators of various types of power generation. A power generation unit is an example of a power generation facility. The power generation plan development device of FIG. 1 includes a predicted demand data input unit 1, a power generation facility data input unit 2, a predicted weather data input unit 3, a power generation facility performance predictor 4, a power generation plan creator 5, and a predicted demand. Data storage 11, a power generation facility data storage 12, a forecast weather data storage 13, a power generation facility performance data storage 14, a power generation plan data storage 15, a prediction error input unit 21, a prediction error calculator 22 and a waiting facility selector 23. The power generation facility performance predictor 4 of this embodiment is an example of a power generation information processor. The prediction error calculator 22 of this embodiment is an example of an error rate calculator and a reserve rate calculator. The forecasted demand data input unit 1 inputs forecasted demand data (which is time series data about one of forecasted power demand) to a power generation plan development device. The power demand forecast from this data is also one of the power supply units that the power generation unit serving as the development target of the power generation plan needs to meet. The predicted demand data storage 11 stores the predicted demand data input from the predicted demand data input unit 1 in a time series in a table. The power generation facility data input unit 2 inputs power generation facility data, which is information about the characteristics and operations of the power generation unit (power generation facility), into a power generation plan development device. Examples of power generation facility information include the code of the power generation unit, basic conditions such as the rated MW and minimum MW of the power generation unit, and information about the restrictions imposed on the power generation unit (types of restriction conditions and restricted time periods). The power generation facility data storage 12 stores the power generation facility data input from the power generation facility data input unit 2 in a table. The power generation facility data storage 12 further stores a calculation range required when the power generation plan creator 5 creates a power generation plan. The predicted weather data input unit 3 inputs predicted weather data, which is time-series data predicted about one of the weather around the power generation unit at the scheduled time and date of power generation, into the power generation plan development device. Weather forecast data is an example of information about the natural environment. The predicted weather data in this embodiment are prediction data about the air temperature (the temperature of the atmosphere) and the seawater temperature (the temperature of the seawater) around the power generation unit. The forecast weather data storage 13 stores the forecast weather data input from the forecast weather data input unit 3 in a table. Predicted weather data is stored in a table on a time network basis. The power generation facility performance predictor 4 predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on the predicted weather data obtained from the predicted weather data storage 13 and the power generation facility data obtained from the power generation facility data storage 12. More specifically, the power generation facility performance predictor 4 calculates prediction data on the performance of the power generation unit according to weather changes on a time network basis. An example of such performance includes the maximum output of a power generation unit that varies according to air temperature or seawater temperature. The prediction result of the performance of the power generation facility performance predictor 4 is stored as power generation facility performance data in one of the performance matrix diagrams of the power generation facility performance data storage 14. For example, the power generation facility performance predictor 4 obtains the reference thermal efficiency η [%] from the power generation facility data storage 12, the modification coefficient α [%] due to the seawater temperature, and the modification coefficient β [%] due to the air temperature. 、 Air temperature correction coefficient of maximum output of thermal power of combined cycle power `` k ₁ "[MW / ° C ³ ], "K ₂ "[MW / ° C ² ], "K ₃ "[MW / ° C] and" k ₄ "[MW], the unit price" Fv "[yen / MJ] of power generation output," P "[MW], the fuel cost" Y "[yen / h], and the like are used as power generation facility information. The power generation facility performance predictor 4 acquires air temperature "Ta" [° C] and seawater temperature "Tw" [° C] from the power generation facility data storage 12 as predicted weather data. Next, the power generation facility performance predictor 4 replaces the power generation facility data and the predicted weather data in equations (1) to (8). Equation (1) represents the maximum output "Px" [MW] of combined cycle power generation after air temperature correction. Equation (2) represents the thermal efficiency "η" [%] of the combined cycle power generation after air temperature correction. Equation (3) represents the thermal efficiency "η '" [%] of steam power generation after air temperature correction. Equation (4) shows the relationship between the seawater temperature "Tw" [° C] and the degree of vacuum "V" [hPa] ("a ₁ "To" a ₄ ”Is the correction factor for seawater temperature). Equation (5) represents the relationship between the degree of vacuum "V" [hPa] and the modification coefficient "α" (%) ("b ₁ "To" b ₄ ”Indicates the correction factor for the degree of vacuum). Equation (6) shows the relationship between the air temperature "Ta" [° C] and the modification coefficient "β" [%] ("c ₁ "To" c ₄ ”Is the correction factor for air temperature). Equation (7) shows the relationship between the power generation output "P" [MW] and the fuel cost "Y" [yen / h] ("Kf" [J / Wh] in the equation is a conversion factor of the calorific value). Equation (8) represents an approximate expression according to a least squares method for the relationship between the power generation output "P" [MW] and the fuel cost "Y" [yen / h]. The symbol "i" is used to distinguish power generation units from each other. For example, P (1) = 500 MW, P (2) = 375 MW, P (3) = 250 MW and P (4) = 125 MW. The symbols "a", "b", and "c" of Equation (8) are called a quadratic coefficient, a linear coefficient, and a constant term of a fuel cost function, respectively. The smaller the values of "a", "b" and "c", the lower the fuel cost at which the power generating unit can operate. Economic efficiency can be considered high. In the case of one of the power generation units that handles combined cycle power generation, the power plant performance predictor 4 calculates the maximum output "Px" from equation (1), and replaces equations (2) and (4) to (7) in equation (8) ) To calculate the quadratic coefficient "a", linear coefficient "b" and constant term "c" of the fuel cost function (see Figure 2). FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of an efficiency matrix diagram of the first embodiment. Figure 2 shows the air temperature "Ta" and seawater temperature "Tw" provided on the basis of the time network. The power plant performance predictor 4 calculates the maximum output "Px", the quadratic coefficient "a", the linear coefficient "b", and the constant term "c" of each power generation unit based on the air temperature "Ta" and the seawater temperature "Tw" The calculated results are stored in the performance matrix based on the time network. FIG. 2 shows an example of time series data about “Px”, “a”, “b”, and “c” of the power generating units “1”, “2”, ..., “n”. FIG. 2 shows changes in air temperature "Ta" and seawater temperature "Tw" from 00:00 to 14:00 on a specific sunny day. As can be understood from FIG. 2, the air temperature “Ta” increases from midnight to daylight on this clear day. On the other hand, the maximum output "Px" in the power generation unit of combined cycle power generation decreases as the air temperature "Ta" increases (see the maximum output "Px" of the power generation units "1" to "n" in Figure 2 ). Therefore, in some cases, when the air temperature "Ta" increases from midnight to daytime, the power generation unit of the combined cycle power generation cannot increase the output to the rated value. When a power generation plan is created in this embodiment, for example, a power generation plan that considers the maximum output "Px" of the performance matrix is created. Therefore, power generation with a small deviation between the power generation amount in the power generation plan and the actual power generation amount can be achieved. In combined cycle power generation and steam power generation, the power generation efficiency of the power generation unit varies due to the adverse effects of air temperature "Ta" and seawater temperature "Tw". Therefore, when the output of multiple power generation units is intended to be scheduled to achieve a further cheap fuel cost, the relationship between the total output of these power generation units and the air temperature "Ta" and the seawater temperature "Tw" is calculated and based on the calculated As a result, output scheduling is determined, thereby allowing reduction in fuel costs. The power generation facility performance predictor 4 of this embodiment calculates a quadratic coefficient "a", a linear coefficient "b" and a constant of the approximate expression of the relationship between the power generation output "P" and the fuel cost "Y" (fuel cost function). Term "c", and store these calculated results in the performance matrix. Therefore, the power generation plan creator 5 can grasp the relationship between the power generation output "P" and the fuel cost "Y" of each power generation unit, and can schedule the output so as to achieve a cheap total fuel cost of one power generation unit to create a power generation plan . Hereinafter, referring to FIG. 1 again, the configuration and operation of the power generation plan development device of this embodiment will be described. The power generation plan creator 5 obtains data on the performance of the power generation unit (power generation facility performance data) from the performance matrix diagram in the power generation facility performance data storage 14 and obtains the predicted demand data from the predicted demand data storage 11. Next, the power generation plan creator 5 creates (generates) a power generation plan for the power generation unit based on the obtained power generation facility performance data and predicted demand data. Therefore, a power generation plan can be created that takes into account power demand forecasts and better output scheduling. The power generation plan created by the power generation plan creator 5 is stored in the power generation plan data storage 15 as the power generation plan data on the basis of the time network. For example, the power generation plan creator 5 obtains the maximum output “Px” of multiple power generation units from the performance matrix diagram, and schedules the output of these power generation units in order to achieve a small deviation between the generated power in the power generation plan and the actual power generation And create a power plan. As a result, a power generation plan can be created that meets demand and one of the commitments. The power generation plan creator 5 obtains a quadratic coefficient "a", a linear coefficient "b", and a constant term "c" of the fuel cost function of a plurality of power generation units from the performance matrix diagram, and schedules the output so as to achieve a low total of one of these power generation units. Fuel costs and create power generation plans. Therefore, an economic power generation plan with a low power generation cost can be created. Next, functions of the prediction error input unit 21, the prediction error calculator 22, and the waiting facility selector 23 will be described. In a case where there is one of many days from the creation time to the submission time of the power generation plan, a large difference sometimes occurs between the atmospheric temperature (predicted temperature) and the actual atmospheric temperature (actual temperature) in the power generation plan. The difference varies depending on the season. For example, in a case where the atmospheric temperature in the power generation plan corresponds to the temperature of a sunny day in summer and the actual atmospheric temperature corresponds to the temperature of a rainy day in summer, sometimes the former predicted temperature is different from the latter's actual temperature. There is a difference between about 10 ° C. This also applies to seawater temperatures. In fact, considering the actual temperature of the day rather than the predicted temperature to create a power generation calculation sometimes cannot meet the power demand. In this case, there is a problem in which it is difficult to instantly determine the degree of unmet demand and one of the power generating units that can be started. The prediction error input unit 21, the prediction error calculator 22, and the waiting facility selector 23 then operate as follows to solve this problem. The prediction error input unit 21 switches whether or not the prediction error calculation is turned on or off according to a switching operation of one of the users of the power generation plan development device. The forecast weather data input unit 3 inputs the current forecast weather data into the power generation plan development device, and at the same time, the forecast error input unit 21 inputs the forecast weather data predicted in the past into the power generation plan development device. The former forecast weather data is an example of the first data. The latter forecast weather data is an example of the second data. The predicted weather data in this embodiment are prediction data about the air temperature (the temperature of the atmosphere) and the seawater temperature (the temperature of the seawater) around the power generation unit. As described above, the power generation facility performance predictor 4 obtains the current forecast weather data from the predicted weather data input unit 3 (forecast weather data storage 13), predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on the data, and stores the prediction result as the power generation facility performance data. In the power generation facility performance data storage 14. Next, the power generation plan creator 5 creates a power generation plan based on the power generation facility performance data. Hereinafter, this power generation plan is referred to as the "first power generation plan". Similarly, the power generation facility performance predictor 4 obtains past forecast weather data from the prediction error input unit 21, predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on the data, and stores the prediction result as power generation facility performance data in the power generation facility performance data storage 14 . Next, the power generation plan creator 5 creates a power generation plan based on the power generation facility performance data. Hereinafter, this power generation plan is referred to as a "second power generation plan". The prediction error calculator 22 calculates one error rate regarding the power supply in the first power generation plan, and one error rate regarding the power supply in the second power generation plan. The error rate of this embodiment is the ratio between the required power and the supplied power at the same time, and is provided by dividing the supplied power by the required power. Use the first power generation plan and forecast demand data to calculate the error rate of the first power generation plan. Use the second power generation plan and forecast demand data to calculate the error rate of the second power generation plan. In a case where the error rate in the second power generation plan is higher or lower than one of the error rates in the first power generation plan, the prediction error calculator 22 recalculates a reserve rate for the waiting for the power generation unit. More specifically, the reserve rate is recalculated so that the error rates can agree with each other. The reserve ratio of this embodiment is an indicator of the period during which the power generating unit is outputting less than one of the maximum outputs. For example, in a case where the reserve ratio is one of 20%, at least some of the power generation units (which are the development goals of the power generation plan) operate with a maximum output of 80% and wait with an output less than the maximum output. The reserve ratio having a value different from one of the values of the reserve ratio calculated by the power generation plan creator 5 is recalculated by the prediction error calculator 22. Here, the waiting facility selector 23 determines whether the recalculated reserve ratio is a value that requires an additional start or stop of the power generation unit. When additional start or stop of the power generation unit is required, the waiting facility selector 23 considers the efficiency of each power generation unit to select a power generation unit that can be started or stopped immediately, and notifies the power generation plan creator 5 of the result of the power generation unit selection. The power generation unit selected as the startup target operates with an output smaller than the maximum output. The power generation plan creator 5 modifies the first power generation plan based on the notification from one of the waiting facility selectors 23. For example, in one of the cases of no additional start-up and additional stop of the power generation unit, the recalculation result of the reserve ratio is supported by changing the load on the started power generation unit without changing the lineup of the started power generation unit, and modifying the A power generation plan. On the other hand, one of the cases of additional start-up of the power generation unit raises a problem in which conditions such as the timing of the startable power generation unit and the time required to reach a predetermined output after the power generation unit is started depend on the power generation unit's variation. Therefore, in this case, the power generation unit creator 5 supports a recalculation result considering the reserve ratio of these conditions, and modifies the first power generation plan. As described above, the power generation plan creator 5 creates a third power generation plan that satisfies a reserve ratio by modifying the first power generation plan, and stores the third power generation plan as power generation plan data in the power generation plan data storage 15. The power generation facility performance predictor 4 may obtain past forecast weather data from the forecast weather data storage 13 instead of the past forecast weather data from the forecast error input unit 21. In this case, for example, the power generation facility performance predictor 4 may obtain, as one of the past forecast weather data, among the forecast weather data about one year before the current forecast weather data, which has a current value close to the current one. One of the air temperature and the seawater temperature in the weather data is predicted. FIG. 3 is a flowchart showing one operation of the power generation plan development device of the first embodiment. When the prediction error calculation is turned on (step S11), the prediction error calculator 22 calculates an error rate based on the first power generation plan (current forecast weather data) (step S12) and calculates an error rate based on the second power generation plan (past forecast weather data). (Step S13). Only in the case where the predicted weather data in step S12 is data before the predicted weather data in step S13, the predicted weather data in step S12 is the current predicted weather data. Next, the prediction error calculator 22 recalculates the reserve ratios regarding the waiting of the power generation units so that the error rates can be consistent with each other (step S14). Next, the waiting facility selector 23 determines whether the recalculated reserve ratio is a value that requires an additional start or stop of the power generation unit (step S15). When an additional start or stop of the power generation unit is required, a power generation unit that can be started or stopped immediately is selected, and the power generation unit selected as the start target is started using an output smaller than one of the maximum outputs (step S16). Subsequently, a third power generation plan satisfying the reserve ratio is created by modifying the first power generation plan (step S17). Conversely, when additional start-up or additional stop of the power generation unit is not required, step S17 is performed without the intervention of step S16. As described above, the power generation plan development device of this embodiment predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on information about the natural environment (such as air temperature and seawater temperature), and creates a power generation plan based on the predicted performance. Therefore, this embodiment can develop a better power generation plan that takes into account changes in the performance of the power generation unit due to the natural environment, and develop a power generation plan that is excellent in terms of power generation volume prediction and economic efficiency of power generation. This embodiment can develop a power generation plan that can easily support changes in weather. For example, in a case where the weather changes from a cloudy weather to a fine weather or the like during the use of the power generation plan, the change in weather is supported by immediately starting or stopping the power generation unit. Therefore, this embodiment can develop a power generation plan with high reachability. (Second Embodiment) FIG. 4 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a power generation plan development device of a second embodiment. The power generation plan development device in FIG. 4 includes a load scheduling calculator 24 instead of the waiting facility selector 23 in FIG. 1. As described above, considering the actual temperature of the day rather than the predicted temperature to create a power calculation sometimes does not meet the power demand. In this case, there is a problem in which it is difficult to instantly determine the degree of unmet demand and one of the power generating units that can be started. Even when an attempt is made to start the power generation unit when the air temperature of the day is recognized, the start-up cannot be performed in a timely manner in some cases. In these cases, the demand is not met. In this embodiment, the load scheduling calculator 24 is used instead of the waiting facility selector 23, and additional start and stop of the power generation unit as in the first embodiment are avoided while accepting a certain degree of error rate. Hereinafter, operations of the prediction error input unit 21, the prediction error calculator 22, and the load scheduling calculator 24 according to this embodiment will be described. As in the first embodiment, the prediction error input unit 21 switches between turning on and off prediction error calculation. The predicted weather data input unit 3 inputs the current forecast weather data into the power generation plan development device, and the prediction error input unit 21 inputs the predicted weather data of the past forecast into the power generation plan development device. The power generation facility performance predictor 4 predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on the current forecast weather data. The power generation plan creator 5 creates a power generation plan (first power generation plan) based on the power generation facility performance data. Similarly, the power generation facility performance predictor 4 predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on past forecast weather data. The power generation plan creator 5 creates a power generation plan (second power generation plan) based on the power generation facility performance data. The prediction error calculator 22 calculates one error rate regarding the power supply in the first power generation plan, and one error rate regarding the power supply in the second power generation plan. In a case where the error rate in the second power generation plan is higher or lower than one of the error rates in the first power generation plan, the prediction error calculator 22 recalculates a reserve rate for the waiting for the power generation unit. At this time, the load scheduling calculator 24 determines whether the first power generation plan can satisfy the reserve ratio only by changing the load of the power generation unit over the entire time period. When starting or stopping is needed, the load scheduling calculator 24 starts or stops the power generation unit to achieve a desired reserve ratio. Conversely, when starting or stopping is not required, the reserve ratio is achieved only by changing the load scheduling of the power generation unit. In the latter case, the load scheduling calculator 24 creates a lineup of units that may immediately support possible changes in load scheduling in response to changes in the reserve rate if a change is needed. The load scheduling calculator 24 notifies the power generation plan creator 5 of information on the start or stop of the power generation unit and the load scheduling of the power generation unit. The power generation plan creator 5 modifies the first power generation plan based on a notification from one of the load scheduling calculators 24. More specifically, the power generation plan creator 5 creates a third power generation plan that meets one of the reserve ratios by modifying the first power generation plan, and stores the third power generation plan as power generation plan data in the power generation plan data storage 15. The reserve ratio of this embodiment is not necessarily set so that the error rates in the first power generation plan and the second power generation plan can be consistent with each other. These error rates can be set so that the difference between the error rates is within a specific range. FIG. 5 is a diagram showing one operation of one of the power generation plan development devices of the second embodiment. Figure 5 shows the time variation of the load (MW) on a particular power generation unit. The load on each power generation unit has restrictions on the load change rate and load duration. The load variation rate is one variation of the load per minute. For example, the upper and lower limits of the amount of change in the load change according to the magnitude of the load. The load duration is the duration during which the same load value lasts. For example, when the load becomes equal to or higher than "X", the load duration is limited to "Y" or less ("X" and "Y" are predetermined real numbers). Therefore, the load scheduling calculator 24 creates a lineup of units that simultaneously meets these restrictions and other restrictions from the power generation facility data store 12 and can immediately support changes in load scheduling based on changes in the reserve rate. FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing an operation of the power generation plan development device of the second embodiment. When the prediction error calculation is turned on (step S21), the prediction error calculator 22 calculates an error rate based on the first power generation plan (current forecast weather data) (step S22) and calculates an error rate based on the second power generation plan (past forecast weather data). (Step S23). Next, the prediction error calculator 22 recalculates the reserve ratio of the waiting for the power generation unit so that the difference between the error rates can be within a specific range (step S24). Next, the load scheduling calculator 24 determines whether the first power generation plan can satisfy the reserve ratio only by changing the load of the power generation unit over the entire time period (step S25). When the support cannot be achieved only by the change of the load, the output of the started power generation unit is appropriately reduced, or if the demand is not satisfied at this time, the stopped power generation unit is appropriately started (step S26). Subsequently, a third power generation plan satisfying the reserve ratio is created by modifying the first power generation plan (step S27). In contrast, when the support can be achieved only by changing the load, step S27 is performed without the intervention of step S26. This embodiment can develop a power generation plan that can easily support changes in weather. For example, in a case where the weather changes from cloudy to clear during the use of the power generation plan, or the like, the change in weather can be supported by changing the load scheduling without starting or stopping the power generation unit. Therefore, according to this embodiment, it is possible to develop a highly flexible power generation plan that can also support sudden changes in weather only by changes in load scheduling. (Third Embodiment) FIG. 7 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a power generation plan development device of a third embodiment. The power generation plan development device in FIG. 7 includes a supply capacity margin appender 25 and a supply capacity notifier 26 instead of the prediction error calculator 22 and the waiting facility selector 23 in FIG. 1. The supply capacity margin adder 25 in this embodiment is an example of a margin calculator. As described above, considering the actual temperature of the day rather than the predicted temperature to create a power calculation sometimes does not meet the power demand. In this case, if a power generation plan is promised and transmitted to a retail operator and subsequently unable to supply an estimated level of power due to sudden changes in weather, a payment of For imbalance fines. Therefore, in this embodiment, when the retail operator is initially informed of the supply capacity (supply potential), a higher air temperature (or seawater temperature; this can be applied in the same way later) is calculated, the maximum output is calculated, and a power generation plan is developed . Hereinafter, operations of the prediction error input unit 21, the supply capacity margin appender 25, and the supply capacity notifier 26 according to this embodiment will be described. The prediction error input unit 21 switches whether or not the supply capacity calculation is turned on or off according to a switching operation of one of the users of the power generation plan development device. The prediction error input unit 21 inputs a difference temperature (temperature margin) for receiving a change in air temperature to a power generation plan development device according to a user's input operation. When the difference temperature is T ° C, accept the change of the actual air temperature within ± T ° C relative to the predicted air temperature. In addition, the forecast weather data input unit 3 inputs the current forecast weather data into the power generation plan development device, and the prediction error input unit 21 inputs the forecast weather data predicted in the past into the power generation plan development device. The power generation facility performance predictor 4 predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on the current forecast weather data. The power generation plan creator 5 creates a power generation plan (first power generation plan) based on the power generation facility performance data. On the other hand, the power generation facility performance predictor 4 predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on past forecast weather data and differential temperature. The power generation plan creator 5 creates a power generation plan (second power generation plan) based on the power generation facility performance data. Therefore, a second power generation result is one in which the difference temperature is reflected. The supply capacity margin adder 25 calculates one margin (redundant demand) regarding the power supply of the power generation unit based on the first power generation plan and the second power generation plan. This margin is created in the entire time network on the basis of the time network and is supplied to the power generation plan creator 5. The power generation plan creator 5 modifies the first power generation plan by adding a margin to the predicted demand and recreating the first power generation plan. As described above, the power generation plan creator 5 creates a third power generation plan that satisfies a margin by modifying the first power generation plan, and stores the third power generation plan as power generation plan data in the power generation plan data storage 15. The supply capacity notifier 26 refers to the power generation plan data in the power generation plan data storage 15 and notifies the retail operator of the third power generation plan instead of the first power generation plan. Therefore, even if the supply capacity of power generation units (which are the development targets in the power generation plan) is reduced by the margin according to the change in weather, the power generation plan that can meet the power demand can still be transmitted to the retail operator. For example, the value of the margin of this embodiment is calculated using a second power generation plan created by varying the predicted air temperature within a range of ± T ° C (variation width). The supply capacity notifier 26 may notify the retail operator of information about the supply capacity of the power generation unit and information about the third power generation plan. FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing one operation of the power generation plan development device of the third embodiment. When the supply capacity calculation is turned on (step S31), the supply capacity margin adder 25 calculates the supply capacity of the power generation unit based on the first power generation plan (current forecast weather data) (step S32) and based on the second power generation plan (previous forecast weather) (Data) Calculate the supply capacity of the power generation unit (step S33). Here, the predicted weather data with a higher air temperature is used as the current predicted weather data to create the first power generation plan in this embodiment (see step S32). At the same time, the second power generation plan in this embodiment is created by varying the air temperature in the past forecast weather data within a variation width (see step S33). In step S33, the second power generation plan may be created by obtaining past forecast weather data from the forecast weather data storage 13 instead of obtaining past forecast weather data from the forecast error input unit 21. In this case, for example, the power generation facility performance predictor 4 may be expected to obtain one of the predicted weather data having a relatively high air temperature among the predicted weather data of the year before the current predicted weather data as a past forecast. Weather information. Next, the supply capacity margin adder 25 calculates a margin on the power supply of the power generation unit based on the first power generation plan and the second power generation plan, and adds the margin to the supply capacity of the power generation unit (step S34). More specifically, the margin is added by adding the margin to the predicted demand. For example, even if the air temperature fluctuates in the fluctuation width in step S33, the value of the margin is still set in this embodiment in order to satisfy the power demand. Next, the supply capacity margin adder 25 determines whether additional start-up or stop of the power generation unit is required to achieve the margin additional supply capacity (step S35). When additional start or stop of the power generation unit is required, the output of the started power generation unit is appropriately reduced, or if the demand is not satisfied at this time, the stopped power generation unit is appropriately started (step S36). Subsequently, a third power generation plan satisfying the margin is created by modifying the first power generation plan (step S37). Conversely, when no additional start or stop of the power generation unit is required, step S37 is performed without the intervention of step S36. This embodiment can develop a power generation plan that can easily support changes in weather. For example, in a situation in which the weather changes from cloudy to sunny during the use of the power generation plan, or the like, a power generation plan that avoids paying an imbalance fine can be developed. Fourth Embodiment FIG. 9 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a power generation plan development device of a fourth embodiment. The power generation plan development device in FIG. 9 includes a group definition data input unit 6, a group limit changer 7, a group definition changer 8, a virtual GLC group load scheduler 9, and a GLC group load scheduling. Device 10, a group definition data storage 16 and a group restriction data storage 17 instead of the predicted weather data input unit 3, the power generation facility performance predictor 4, the forecast weather data storage 13, and the power generation facility performance in FIG. The data storage 14, the prediction error input unit 21, the prediction error calculator 22, and the waiting facility selector 23. The group definition data input unit 6, the group restriction changer 7, and the group definition changer 8 according to this embodiment are examples of a power generation information processor. The group definition data input unit 6 and the group definition data storage 16 according to this embodiment are examples of an input unit and a storage, respectively. The group definition data input unit 6 inputs the group definition data (which is data about the definition of a power generation unit group) into the power generation plan development device, and registers the data. Group definition data contains information about the generating units that belong to the group, and information about restrictions on one of the groups. The former data indicates which power generation unit belongs to which group. The latter data indicates which restrictions are imposed on which groups. The group definition data storage 16 stores (registers) the group definition data input from the group definition data input unit 6 in a table. A part of the group definition data in the group definition data storage 16 is created using the power generation facility data in the power generation facility data storage 12. These examples of group definition data include the code, basic conditions, and restriction information of the generation units that belong to the group. Restrictions on groups may be allowed to be input from the power generation facility data input unit 2 instead of the group definition data input unit 6, or both from the group definition data input unit 6 and the power generation facility data input unit 2. In this case, the power generation facility data input unit 2 is an example of a power generation information processor or input unit. FIG. 10 is a diagram showing an example of group definition data according to the fourth embodiment. Figure 10 shows groups A to C (these are the same central control group), groups D and E (they stop excluding the utilization group), and groups F and G (these are output restriction groups) And groups H to J (these are GLC groups). For example, power generation units 1 and 2 belong to group A, and power generation units 3 and 4 belong to group B. The same central control group belongs to a group of generating units of the same central control in a power plant. The stop exclusion utilization group is a group used to limit the stop exclusion utilization of the power generation unit to which it belongs. The output restriction group is a group for restricting the output of the power generation unit to which it belongs. The GLC group is used to dispatch a single load instruction to a group of power generation units belonging to it. Other examples include a simultaneous start restriction group that restricts the simultaneous start of generation units belonging to it, and a power plant group that includes one generation unit that belongs to the same power plant. For example, a restriction (restriction) that limits the total output of group F to 1000 MW or less is imposed on group F (which is an output restriction group) in order to comply with a fishery agreement "A". In this case, the total output of the power generating units 1 to 4 belonging to the group F is limited to 1000 MW or less during one time period during which the group F is valid. A restriction (restriction) limiting the total output of the group G to 600 MW or less is imposed on the group G (which is an output restriction group) so as to comply with an environmental emission standard "B". In many cases, the 600 MW limit is a limit to be imposed on a single power generation unit. Therefore, in many cases, only one power generation unit belonging to the group G operates during one time period during which the group G is valid. However, in a case where the output of each power generation unit is low, two or more power generation units belonging to the group G may operate simultaneously. For example, a restriction (limitation) on the number of simultaneous generation restriction groups to be limited to one is imposed on the simultaneous activation restriction group. In this case, during one time period during which the group is valid, two or more power generating units belonging to the group cannot be in an active state at the same time. As described above, restrictions on groups include restrictions on conditions (such as 1000 MW, 600 MW, and simultaneous activation restrictions), and restrictions on time periods (such as valid time periods and invalid time periods of groups). The group definition data storage 16 stores data regarding these restrictions on conditions and time periods as group definition data. In this embodiment, restrictions on groups are classified into two types. One type is a situation in which it is initially determined that one of the groups is restricted and then one of the power generation units that are members of the group is determined. In this case, the determination of a particular power generation unit that is a member of a particular group automatically determines the restrictions to be imposed on the power generation unit. The other type is one in which members of a group are initially determined and subsequently restrictions on the group are determined. In this case, after the power generation unit is adopted as a member of a specific group, the restriction imposed on the power generation unit belonging to the group is determined. FIG. 11 is a schematic diagram showing an example of a group configuration of the fourth embodiment. Figure 11 shows that power generation units 1 to 3 belong to a specific output restriction group, power generation units 2 to 4 belong to a specific same central control group, power generation units 3 to 6 belong to a specific simultaneous start restriction group, and power generation units 5 and 6 Belongs to a specific fishery agreement "A" target group. Here, the power generation unit 2 belongs to the output restriction group and the same central control group, and the power generation unit 5 belongs to the simultaneous start restriction group and the fishery agreement "A" target group. As described above, the groups in this embodiment are defined so as to allow one power generation unit to redundantly belong to multiple groups. FIG. 12 is a diagram showing an example of a group configuration of the fourth embodiment. FIG. 12 corresponds to a schema extracted from FIG. 11. Figure 12 shows the power generation unit U ₁ To U ₄ Belongs to a group G ₁ , Power generation unit U ₄ And U ₅ Belongs to a group G ₂ , Power generation unit U ₅ To U ₉ Belongs to a group G ₃ And the power generation unit U ₈ And U ₉ Belongs to a group G ₄ . Define group G ₁ To G ₄ In order to allow one generating unit to belong to multiple groups redundantly. In this case, each power generation unit may belong to multiple groups. Therefore, the restrictions imposed on the power generation unit can be varied differently to allow for free scheduling of loads. On the other hand, if the number of types of restrictions imposed on the power generation unit is large, there is a possibility that the restrictions conflict with each other and the flexible operation of the power generation unit becomes difficult. Therefore, in the power generation plan development device in this embodiment, the power generation plan creator 5 has information about various groups, and the power generation plan creator 5 creates power generation plans so that the restrictions on the groups are compatible with each other as much as possible. That is, the power generation plan creator 5 creates a power generation plan in one of a way to obtain an information program, a solution that imposes multiple restrictions on it. Therefore, a better power generation plan can be developed while handling multiple groups. Hereinafter, referring to FIG. 9 again, the configuration and operation of the power generation plan development device of this embodiment will be described. The group restriction changer 7 and the group definition changer 8 are blocks for changing (updating) the group definition data in the group definition data storage 16. In this embodiment, the group definition data input unit 6 can continuously change the group definition data, and the group definition changer 8 can temporarily change the group definition data. The user of the power generation plan development device can change the group definition data by performing one of the operations of continuously or temporarily changing the group definition data on a UI (user interface) of the power generation plan development device. The group restriction changer 7 inputs the group restriction data for temporarily changing the restriction on the group included in the group definition data into the power generation plan development device. The group restriction data input from the group restriction changer 7 is stored in the group restriction data storage 17. This group restriction data is an example of changing data. The group definition changer 8 temporarily changes the group definition data in the group definition data storage 16 based on the group restriction data in the group limitation data storage 17. For example, when the group restriction data on a specific group is read from the group restriction data storage 17, the group definition data in the group definition data storage 16 is rewritten to change the definition of the group ( Restrictions on groups). For example, the group restriction data contains information about one of the restrictions imposed on the group changing the time period and details of the change. The group definition changer 8 changes the group definition data in the group definition data storage 16 according to the changed details during this change time period. After the change time period has passed, the group definition data in the group definition data storage 16 is returned to the original. The power generation plan creator 5 obtains the data (group definition data) about the definition of the power generation unit group from the group definition data storage 16, and obtains the predicted demand data from the predicted demand data storage 11. Next, the power generation plan creator 5 creates a power generation plan for the power generation unit based on the obtained group definition data and predicted demand data. Therefore, it is possible to create a power generation plan that takes into account the forecast of power demand and the restrictions on individual groups, and it is possible to perform power generation that meets the restrictions on individual groups and meets the power demand. The power generation plan created by the power generation plan creator 5 is stored in the power generation plan data storage 15 as the power generation plan data on the basis of the time network. When the group definition data in the group definition data storage 16 is temporarily changed by the group definition changer 8, the power generation plan creator 5 creates a power generation plan based on the changed group definition data. Conversely, when the group definition data in the group definition data storage 16 is not changed by the group definition changer 8, the power generation plan creator 5 is based on the self-defined group data input unit 6 (or the power generation facility data input unit 2) ) Enter the group definition data to create a power generation plan. The power generation plan creator 5 can obtain a processing result obtained by processing the group definition data through the virtual GLC group load scheduler 9 or the GLC group load scheduler 10 instead of obtaining the group definition data itself. Hereinafter, operations of the virtual GLC group load scheduler 9 and the GLC group load scheduler 10 and a virtual GLC group and a GLC group are described. The virtual GLC group is an instance of a first group. The GLC group is an example of a second group. In the power generation unit serving as the target of GLC control, the GLC control device provided for the power generation unit receives a command from the central power supply station, and the GLC control device is provided in the power generation unit that has been started and is in a state capable of accepting power supply instructions Command values that are equally divided. In this case, regarding the power generation units belonging to the GLC group, the characteristics including the maximum output, the start curve and the stop curve can be processed by each power generation unit without any problems, but a problem arises in the load scheduling to the power generation units. This is because simultaneous load scheduling to power generation units with the same incremental unit price can be performed through load scheduling using the equal lambda method but cannot be performed to simultaneous load scheduling to power generation units with different incremental unit prices. Load scheduling of power generation units with different incremental unit prices should be performed sequentially. However, the incremental unit prices of power generation units are not always the same and are usually different. In particular, there are no examples of power generation units with uniform incremental unit prices other than coaxial power generation units for combined cycle power generation. Here, according to the specific characteristics of the power generation unit, even in a case where unit A has a lower cost relative to the minimum output at a unit price (yen) per MW, unit B sometimes has a relative cost to the maximum output. Lower cost. The cost to increase the output of units A and B by 100 MW is cheaper in unit A. However, the cost after the increase is sometimes cheaper in the unit B. Therefore, there is a problem that one of the typical GLC load schedulers is only applicable to power generation units with incremental unit prices that are consistent with each other. In contrast, in this embodiment, power generation units with the same incremental unit price are grouped into GLC groups, and power generation units with incremental unit prices close to each other are grouped into virtual GLC groups. Units with the same incremental unit price can belong to the virtual GLC group. Generation units with different incremental unit prices can belong to this group. The virtual GLC group in this embodiment contains power generation units with the same approximate value of the incremental unit price. In other words, generation units with incremental unit prices that are consistent with each other within an error range belong to the same virtual GLC group. Therefore, according to this embodiment, in the case of one of a plurality of power generation units having an incremental unit price consistent within an error range, these units are grouped into a virtual GLC group. Under the assumption that the incremental unit prices of the power generation units have the same value, the load scheduling of the power generation units is performed. Therefore, load scheduling of power generation units with different incremental unit prices can be performed simultaneously. The incremental unit prices of power generation units approximately coincide with each other. Therefore, the inconvenience and calculation errors attributed to simultaneous scheduling can be suppressed to be small. In cases where the inconvenience due to simultaneous scheduling and calculation errors are not considered to be one of the problems, the accuracy of the approximate calculation in which the incremental unit prices are approximately consistent with each other can be set to low, and can be performed for many power generation units Grouping. The power generation plan development device in this embodiment uses both a virtual GLC group and a GLC group. Therefore, this device includes both a virtual GLC group load scheduler 9 and a GLC group load scheduler 10. As described later, the power generation plan creator 5 may use only one of the load scheduling of the virtual GLC group and the load scheduling of the GLC group to create a power generation plan, or use the load scheduling of the virtual GLC group and the load scheduling of the GLC group. Create a power generation plan. In addition to incremental unit prices, GLC groups and virtual GLC groups can also be configured based on a performance. In this case, power generation units with the same performance are grouped into GLC groups, and power generation units with performances close to each other are grouped into virtual GLC groups. Next, details of the virtual GLC group load scheduler 9 and the GLC group load scheduler 10 are described. The GLC group load scheduler 10 determines a block regarding the load scheduling of the GLC group. The GLC group is used to dispatch a single load instruction to a group of power generating units belonging to the group. The GLC group load scheduler 10 determines the load scheduling of the power generation units belonging to the GLC group based on the group definition data obtained from the group definition data storage 16. On the other hand, the virtual GLC group load scheduler 9 determines a block regarding the load scheduling of the virtual GLC group. Like the GLC group, the virtual GLC group is used to dispatch a single load instruction to one of the power generation units belonging to the group. The virtual GLC group load scheduler 9 determines the load scheduling of the power generating units belonging to the virtual GLC group based on the group definition data obtained from the group definition data storage 16. The power generation plan creator 5 obtains the determination result of the load scheduling of the power generation units belonging to the virtual GLC group (the first load scheduling data) from the virtual GLC group load scheduler 9 and obtains the GLC group from the GLC group load scheduler 10 The result of the load scheduling of the power generation unit (second load scheduling data), and the predicted demand data is obtained from the predicted demand data storage 11. Next, the power generation plan creator 5 creates a power generation plan for the power generation unit based on the obtained first load scheduling data, second load scheduling data, and predicted demand data. Therefore, it is possible to create a power generation plan that takes into account the forecast of power demand, the load scheduling of the GLC group, and the load scheduling of the virtual GLC group, and can execute power generation that meets the load instruction and meets the power demand. The power generation plan created by the power generation plan creator 5 is stored in the power generation plan data storage 15 as the power generation plan data on the basis of the time network. The power generation plan creator 5 can create a power generation plan using only one of the virtual GLC group's load scheduling and the GLC group's load scheduling, or use both the virtual GLC group's load scheduling and the GLC group's load scheduling to create a power generation plan. . For example, in a case where any power generation unit belonging to both the virtual GLC group and the GLC group resides, or in a case where the power generation plan is intended to create only one of the virtual GLC group and one of the GLC groups Consider using only one load schedule. In this case, the power generation plan creator 5 selects the load scheduling of the virtual GLC group or the load scheduling of the GLC group, and creates the power generation plan based on the selected load scheduling. Next, details of the load scheduling of this embodiment are described. The GLC group is described below. However, this also applies to virtual GLC groups. For example, in a case where the GLC group includes a plurality of power generation units with different fuel efficiency performance, the GLC group load scheduler 10 determines that the load scheduling makes as many power generation units with a good fuel efficiency performance as possible to operate . More specifically, when the power demand is low, the GLC group load scheduler 10 determines load scheduling in order to release the parallel generation of power generation units with a poor fuel efficiency in the GLC group. Conversely, when the power demand is high, the GLC group load scheduler 10 determines the load scheduling so that a power generation unit with a poor fuel efficiency is connected in parallel in the GLC group. When the fluctuation of the power demand is within a certain range without disabling the parallel or parallel generation units, the GLC group load scheduler 10 determines the load scheduling so as to allow the output of the generation units in the GLC group to have the same value to support Subsequent increases and decreases in electricity demand. In this case, when any power generation unit reaches the maximum output, the GLC group load scheduler 10 determines the load scheduling so that the output of the power generation unit can be maintained at the maximum output and the output of the remaining power generation units can be the same. When the next power generation unit reaches the maximum output, the GLC group load scheduler 10 determines the load scheduling so that the outputs of these two power generation units can be maintained at the maximum output and the outputs of the remaining power generation units can be the same. The GLC group load scheduler 10 repeats this process until all power generation units in the GLC group reach the maximum output. Conversely, when the power demand decreases with all power generation units in the GLC group having the maximum output, the output of the power generation unit with the highest maximum output is gradually reduced. Then, when the output of the power generating unit is reduced to that of the power generating unit having the second largest maximum output, gradually reduce the output of the two power generating units so as to have the same value, or stop one of the power generating units and gradually reduce the other power generating unit. Its output. At this time, the GLC group load scheduler 10 determines whether the former method or the latter method defines the economic efficiency of the load scheduling of the two power generation units, and decides to use a load scheduling with a higher economic efficiency. The GLC group load scheduler 10 repeats this procedure for all power generation units in the GLC group. In this embodiment, multiple GLC groups can be registered in the group definition data storage 16. In contrast to these GLC groups, when the maximum output is increased by upgrading the power generation unit or the performance of the power generation unit is improved by improving the burner, the members of the GLC group and the effective time period are changed according to each opportunity. As described above, in this embodiment, multiple GLC groups can be flexibly operated. For example, it is assumed that one specific GLC group includes five power generation units, and the output variation rate of each power generation unit is one of 5 MW / min. In this case, the output of each power generation unit changes by only 5 MW per minute. However, when the output of five power generation units is changed at the same time, a maximum output variation rate of 25 MW / min can be achieved. When the amount of electricity generated by large-scale photovoltaic power generation (million-watt solar power) varies greatly due to sudden changes in weather, this can serve as, for example, a method of payload scheduling to support the amount of electricity generated. The power generation plan creator 5 obtains load scheduling data that defines the relationship between power demand and load scheduling from the GLC group load scheduler 10, and obtains predicted demand data from the predicted demand data storage 11. Next, the power generation plan creator 5 creates time series data on load scheduling by applying predicted demand data to the relationship between power demand and load scheduling, and creates a power generation plan based on the time series data. FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of load scheduling in the fourth embodiment. FIG. 13 shows the time variation of the output of a single-axis power generation unit, a dual-axis power generation unit, and a three-axis power generation unit of a combined cycle power generation belonging to a specific GLC group, and the time variation of power demand. FIG. 13 further shows the maximum output of a uniaxial power generating unit, a biaxial power generating unit, and a triaxial power generating unit at a specific air temperature. The maximum output of a combined cycle power generation unit is provided by equation (1) described above. Symbol K ₁ This indicates a case where only a triaxial power generating unit having a poor performance is configured to have a low output. Symbol K ₅ Shows a case where only one of the triaxial power generating units with poor performance is stopped. On the other hand, the symbol K ₂ And K ₄ Indicates a case where the outputs of three of the power generation units are configured to have the same value. In addition, the symbol K ₃ It indicates that the output of three power generation units has reached one of the maximum output. As described above, the GLC group load scheduler 10 in this embodiment can change the load schedule in various ways according to the change in power demand. As described above, the power generation plan development device in this embodiment registers data on the definition of a group (such as members of the group and restrictions on the group) in the group definition data storage 16 and is based on the registered definition Create a power plan. Therefore, this embodiment can develop a better power generation plan that takes into account the members of the individual group and the restrictions on the individual group, and develop a power generation plan that is excellent in terms of economic efficiency and operational flexibility of power generation. According to this embodiment, the power generating units having a certain degree of difference in performance are grouped into a virtual GLC group, thereby achieving simultaneous output changes. As a result, it is possible to achieve load scheduling with a significant rate of load variation and to create more flexible and highly operational power generation plans. When the amount of electricity generated by large-scale photovoltaic power generation (million-watt solar power) varies greatly due to sudden changes in weather, this can serve as, for example, a method of payload scheduling to support the amount of electricity generated. For example, this embodiment is effective in one of cases where a power generation plan of a power generation unit is integrally created according to a plurality of schemes such as hydraulic pressure, photovoltaic power generation, and thermal power generation. The group restriction changer 7 receives change data (group restriction data) for temporarily changing restrictions on a group. Alternatively, this changer may be replaced with one of the changers that receives change data for temporarily changing the definition of the group. That is, the change target of changing the data is not necessarily limited to the restriction on the group. Goals can further include members of the group. In this case, the group definition changer 8 can temporarily change not only the restrictions on the groups contained in the group definition data but also temporarily change the members of the groups contained in the group definition data. For example, temporarily increase or decrease the number of power generation units belonging to a particular group according to changes in the group definition data. Fifth Embodiment FIG. 14 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a power generation plan development device of a fifth embodiment. The power generation plan development device in FIG. 14 includes an instant data input unit 27, an error estimator 28, and a processing result notifier 29 instead of the prediction error input unit 21, the prediction error calculator 22, and the waiting facility selector in FIG. twenty three. The processing result notifier 29 in this embodiment is an example of a display. In this embodiment, the predicted weather data input unit 3 inputs the current forecast weather data into the power generation plan development device, and the real-time data input unit 27 obtains the current measured weather data from each power plant 30 in real time and inputs the data to the power generation plan development. Device. The weather measurement data in this embodiment are measurement data about the air temperature (atmospheric temperature) and seawater temperature (temperature of seawater) around the power generation unit, and are, for example, around the power generation unit installed at 30 locations of each power plant One of the measuring instruments. The weather forecast data is an example of the first data. The weather measurement data is an example of the second data. The real-time data input unit 27 further obtains the current output value of the power generation unit, and inputs the value to the power generation plan development device. The power generation facility performance predictor 4 predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on the predicted weather data. The power generation plan creator 5 creates a power generation plan (first power generation plan) based on the power generation facility performance data. Similarly, the power generation facility performance predictor 4 predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on the measured weather data. The power generation plan creator 5 creates a power generation plan (second power generation plan) based on the power generation facility performance data. The first power generation plan and the second power generation plan are stored as power generation plan data in the power generation plan data storage 15. The processing result notifier 29 refers to the power generation plan data in the power generation plan data storage 15, and displays the first power generation plan and the second power generation plan described above on the same screen. For example, a graph showing changes in the output value of the first power generation plan and a graph showing changes in the output value of the second power generation plan are displayed on the same coordinates, thereby allowing the user to compare these values. The current output value input from the real-time data input unit 27 may also be displayed on the coordinates. A graph showing a change in air temperature of the first power generation plan (that is, a predicted change in air temperature) and a display of a change in air temperature of the second power generation plan (that is, a measurement of a change in air temperature) can be displayed on the same coordinates. A chart. The error estimator 28 calculates the difference between the predicted air temperature and the measured air temperature, and displays the difference on the screen as the air temperature error through the processing result notifier 29. Therefore, the user can be provided with information about the error between the predicted air temperature and the measured air temperature. The error estimator 28 may have the same functions as those of the prediction error calculator 22 and the waiting facility selector 23 in the first embodiment. In this case, the error estimator 28 may calculate an error rate and a reserve rate, and the power generation plan creator 5 may create the first to third power generation plans based on the reserve rate. On the other hand, the error estimator 28 may have the same functions as those of the prediction error calculator 22 and the load scheduling calculator 24 in the second embodiment. Also in this case, the error estimator 28 may calculate an error rate and a reserve rate, and the power generation plan creator 5 may create the first to third power generation plans based on the reserve rate. The error estimator 28 may calculate an error rate between the predicted air temperature and the measured air temperature, and provide the error rate for the power generation plan creator 5. In this case, the power generation plan creator 5 can create a third power generation plan by modifying the first power generation plan so that the error rate can be within a predetermined range. The power generation plan development device in this embodiment may modify the first power generation plan based on an input operation by one of the users watching the screen. For example, users may be allowed to modify the air temperature of predicted weather data. In this case, the power generation facility performance predictor 4 re-predicts the performance of the power generation unit based on the predicted weather data. The power generation plan creator 5 recreates the first power generation plan based on the power generation facility performance data. Therefore, it is possible to consider the user's intention to create the first power generation plan to the third power generation plan. This embodiment enables the user to visually recognize the difference between the predicted value and the real-time measured value in the power generation plan. If there is an inconvenience difference at this time, the user can quickly resolve the difference, thereby allowing operations to achieve a highly stable power generation plan. (Sixth Embodiment) FIG. 15 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a power generation plan development device of a sixth embodiment. The power generation plan development device 31 in FIG. 15 includes: a processor 32 such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit); a main storage device 33 such as RAM (Random Access Memory); and an auxiliary storage device 34 such as an HDD (Hard disk drive); a network interface 35, such as a LAN (Local Area Network) board; a device interface 36, such as a memory slot or a memory port; and a bus 37, which connects these devices to each other connection. The power generation plan development device 31 may be, for example, a computer such as a PC (personal computer), and includes: an input device such as a keyboard and a mouse; and a display device such as an LCD (liquid crystal display) monitor . According to this embodiment, a power generation plan development program for causing the computer to execute information processing in the power generation plan development device of any of the first to fifth embodiments is installed in the auxiliary storage device 34. The power generation plan development device 31 deploys the program in the main storage device 33, thereby allowing the processor 32 to execute the program. Therefore, the functions of the blocks shown in FIG. 1, FIG. 4, FIG. 7, FIG. 9, or FIG. 14 can be achieved in the power generation plan development device 31, thereby realizing the creation of Power generation plan. The data created by this information processing is stored by being temporarily held in the main storage device 33 or stored in the auxiliary storage device 34. The power generation plan development program can be installed by installing an external device 38 that records the program to the device interface 36 and by storing the program from the external device 38 in the auxiliary storage device 34. Examples of the external device 38 include a computer-readable recording medium and a recording device internally containing such a recording medium. Examples of the recording medium include a CD-ROM and a DVD-ROM. An example of the recording device is an HDD. For example, the power generation plan development program can be installed by downloading the program through the network interface 35. According to this embodiment, the function of the power generation plan development device in any of the first to fifth embodiments can be achieved using software. Although certain embodiments have been described, these embodiments have been presented by way of example only, and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention. In fact, the novel devices, methods, and media described herein may be embodied in various other forms; in addition, various omissions, substitutions, and changes in the forms of the devices, methods, and media described herein may be made without departing from the spirit of the present invention. The scope of the accompanying patent application and its equivalent are intended to cover such forms or modifications as would fall within the scope and spirit of the invention.

1‧‧‧ Forecast demand data input unit

2‧‧‧Generation facility data input unit

3‧‧‧ Forecast weather data input unit

4‧‧‧Estimator of power plant performance

5‧‧‧ Generator Plan Creator

6‧‧‧Group definition data input unit

7‧‧‧ group limit changer

8‧‧‧Group definition changer

9‧‧‧ Virtual Group Load Control (GLC) Group Load Scheduler

10‧‧‧Group Load Control (GLC) Group Load Scheduler

11‧‧‧ forecast demand data storage

12‧‧‧Data storage of power generation facilities

13‧‧‧ Forecast Weather Data Storage

14‧‧‧Power storage facility performance data storage

15‧‧‧Generation plan data storage

16‧‧‧Group definition data storage

17‧‧‧Group Restricted Data Store

21‧‧‧ prediction error input unit

22‧‧‧ Forecast Error Calculator

23‧‧‧ waiting for facility selector

24‧‧‧Load Scheduling Calculator

25‧‧‧Supply capacity margin adder

26‧‧‧Supply Capacity Notifier

27‧‧‧Real-time data input unit

28‧‧‧ Error Estimator

29‧‧‧ processing result notifier

30‧‧‧ Power Plant

31‧‧‧Power generation plan development device

32‧‧‧ processor

33‧‧‧Main storage device

34‧‧‧ auxiliary storage device

35‧‧‧ web interface

36‧‧‧device interface

37‧‧‧Bus

38‧‧‧External Device

G ₁ to G ₄ ‧‧‧ Group

U ₁ to U ₉ ‧‧‧ Power generation units

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1 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a power generation plan development device of a first embodiment; FIG. 2 is a diagram showing an example of an efficiency matrix diagram of the first embodiment; FIG. 3 is a diagram showing a first FIG. 4 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a power generation plan development device of a second embodiment; FIG. 5 is a block diagram showing a power generation plan development device of a second embodiment; A diagram of an operation of a plan development device; FIG. 6 is a flowchart showing an operation of the power generation plan development device of the second embodiment; FIG. 7 is a diagram of a configuration of a power generation plan development device of a third embodiment A block diagram; FIG. 8 is a flowchart showing an operation of a power generation plan development device of the third embodiment; FIG. 9 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a power generation plan development device of a fourth embodiment; 10 is a diagram showing an example of a group definition data of a fourth embodiment; FIG. 11 is a diagram showing an example of a group configuration of a fourth embodiment; FIG. 12 is a diagram showing a fourth embodiment An example of group configuration A schematic diagram; FIG. 13 is a diagram showing an example of load scheduling in the fourth embodiment; FIG. 14 is a block diagram showing a configuration of a power generation plan development device in a fifth embodiment; and FIG. 15 is a diagram showing A block diagram of a configuration of a power generation plan development device of a sixth embodiment.

Claims (10)

A power generation plan development device includes: a power generation information processor configured to process information about performance or a group of power generation facilities, the power generation information processor predicts the power generation facilities based on information about a natural environment Such performance, or registering information about the power generation facilities that belong to the group and information about one of the groups as a definition of the group of the power generation facilities; and a power generation plan creator, It is configured to create a power generation plan for one of the power generation facilities based on the performance of the power generation facilities predicted by the power generation information processor or the definition of the group registered by the power generation information processor, where The power generation plan creator creates a first power generation plan based on the performances predicted from the first information about the natural environment, creates a second power generation plan based on the performances from the second nature prediction about the natural environment, and A third power generation plan is created based on the first power generation plan and the second power generation plan; the above power generation plan development device further includes: an error rate A calculator configured to calculate an error rate regarding the power supply in the first power generation plan and an error rate regarding the power supply in the second power generation plan; and a reserve rate calculator , Which is configured to calculate a reserve rate for the waiting for the power generation facilities based on the error rate in the first power generation plan and the error rate in the second power generation plan; and the power generation plan creator uses The third power generation plan is created by modifying the first power generation plan based on the reserve ratio. For example, the device of claim 1, wherein the above-mentioned first data is current forecast weather data, and the above-mentioned second data is past forecast weather data. The device of claim 1, wherein the power generation plan creator creates the third power generation plan by changing the power generation facility that is a waiting target in the first power generation plan. The device of claim 1, wherein the power generation plan creator creates the third power generation plan by changing the load scheduling of the power generation facilities in the first power generation plan. A power generation plan development device includes: a power generation information processor configured to process information about performance or a group of power generation facilities, the power generation information processor predicts the power generation facilities based on information about a natural environment Such performance, or registering information about the power generation facilities that belong to the group and information about one of the groups as a definition of the group of the power generation facilities; and a power generation plan creator, It is configured to create a power generation plan for one of the power generation facilities based on the performance of the power generation facilities predicted by the power generation information processor or the definition of the group registered by the power generation information processor, where The power generation plan creator creates a first power generation plan based on the performances predicted from the first information about the natural environment, creates a second power generation plan based on the performances from the second nature prediction about the natural environment, and A third power generation plan is created based on the first power generation plan and the second power generation plan; the above power generation plan development device further includes a margin calculation , Which is configured to calculate a margin on the power supply of the power generation facilities based on the first power generation plan and the second power generation plan, and the power generation plan creator modifies the first power generation plan to satisfy the margin Degrees to create this third power generation plan. A power generation plan development device includes: a power generation information processor configured to process information about performance or a group of power generation facilities, the power generation information processor predicts the power generation facilities based on information about a natural environment Such performance, or registering information about the power generation facilities that belong to the group and information about one of the groups as a definition of the group of the power generation facilities; and a power generation plan creator, It is configured to create a power generation plan for one of the power generation facilities based on the performance of the power generation facilities predicted by the power generation information processor or the definition of the group registered by the power generation information processor, where The power generation plan creator creates a first power generation plan based on the performances predicted from the first information about the natural environment, creates a second power generation plan based on the performances from the second nature prediction about the natural environment, and A third power generation plan is created based on the first power generation plan and the second power generation plan; the power generation information processor includes: a power generation facility performance prediction , It is configured to predict the performance of the power generation facilities based on the information about the power generation facilities and the information about the natural environment, and the power generation plan creator is based on the power predicted by the power generation facility performance predictor. The efficiency of the power generation facilities was created to create the power generation plan. A power generation plan development device includes: a power generation information processor configured to process information about performance or a group of power generation facilities, the power generation information processor predicts the power generation facilities based on information about a natural environment Such performance, or registering information about the power generation facilities that belong to the group and information about one of the groups as a definition of the group of the power generation facilities; and a power generation plan creator, It is configured to create a power generation plan for one of the power generation facilities based on the performance of the power generation facilities predicted by the power generation information processor or the definition of the group registered by the power generation information processor, where The power generation plan creator selects load dispatching regarding a first group to which the power generation facilities having a first efficiency belong and a second group to which the power generating facilities having a second efficiency belong At least any one of the load scheduling and creating the power generation plan based on the selected load scheduling; and the first group has incremental orders that are the same or different from each other Group in which (incremental unit price) of such power plant, and the second group of lines having a same increment of such power plant belongs to the group of monovalent. A power generation plan development device includes: a power generation information processor configured to process information about performance or a group of power generation facilities, the power generation information processor predicts the power generation facilities based on information about a natural environment Such performance, or registering information about the power generation facilities that belong to the group and information about one of the groups as a definition of the group of the power generation facilities; and a power generation plan creator, It is configured to create a power generation plan for one of the power generation facilities based on the performance of the power generation facilities predicted by the power generation information processor or the definition of the group registered by the power generation information processor, where The power generation plan creator selects the load scheduling related to a first group of the power generation facilities with a first efficiency and the load scheduling related to a second group of the power generation facilities with a second efficiency At least any one of which creates the power generation plan based on the selected load scheduling; the power generation information processor includes: an input unit configured to receive the group The definition, and the definition is stored in a storage; a group restriction changer configured to receive change data for changing the group included in the storage registered in the storage The restriction on the group in the definition; and a group definition changer configured to change the definition of the group registered in the storage based on the change data, and the power generation plan creator The power generation plan is created based on the definition of the group registered in the storage. A method for developing a power generation plan, comprising: processing information about performance or a group of power generation facilities by a power generation information processor, the power generation information processor predicting the performance of the power generation facilities based on data about a natural environment , Or register information about the power generation facilities belonging to the group and information about one of the groups as a definition of the group of the power generation facilities; and by a power generation plan creator based on the The performance of the power generation facilities predicted by the power generation information processor or the definition of the group registered by the power generation information processor creates a power generation plan for one of the power generation facilities, wherein the power generation plan creator is based on A first power generation plan is created based on the performance predicted by the first data of the natural environment, and a second power generation plan is created based on the performance from the second nature prediction of the natural environment, and based on the first power generation plan and the first The second power generation plan creates a third power generation plan; the method further includes: calculating by an error rate calculator An error rate for power supply and an error rate for power supply in the second power generation plan; and a reserve rate calculator based on the error rate in the first power generation plan and the error rate in the second power generation plan An error rate to calculate a reserve rate for the waiting for the power generation facilities; and the power generation plan creator creates the third power generation plan by modifying the first power generation plan based on the reserve rate. A non-transitory computer-readable recording medium containing a power generation plan development program. The power generation plan development program causes a computer to execute a power generation plan development method. The method includes: processing a power generation facility by a power generation information processor. A group of information, the power generation information processor predicts the performance of the power generation facilities based on information about a natural environment, or registers information about the power generation facilities belonging to the group and about one of the groups Restricted data is defined as one of the groups of the power generation facilities; and by a power generation plan creator based on the performance of the power generation facilities predicted by the power generation information processor or registered by the power generation information processor This definition of the group creates a power generation plan for one of the power generation facilities, wherein the power generation plan creator creates a first power generation plan based on the performance predicted from the first information about the natural environment, based on The performance of the second natural prediction of the environment creates a second power generation plan and is based on the first power generation plan and the second The power plan creates a third power generation plan; the method further includes calculating, by an error rate calculator, an error rate regarding power supply in the first power generation plan, and an error regarding power supply in the second power generation plan Rate; and a reserve rate calculator based on the error rate in the first power generation plan and the error rate in the second power generation plan to calculate a reserve rate waiting for the power generation facilities; The generator creates the third power generation plan by modifying the first power generation plan based on the reserve ratio.