JP2016093016A - Operation plan generating device, operation plan generation device and program - Google Patents

Abstract

PROBLEM TO BE SOLVED: To generate an operation plan even if the request reserve force of power generating unit cannot be ensured.SOLUTION: An operation plan generating device for generating a plurality of power generating units includes a target function acquisition unit for acquiring a target function for calculating the power generation cost or the generation rate of greenhouse effect gas and constraint conditions of power generating units, a power generation amount calculation unit for calculating a request power generation amount, i.e., an adjustment amount from the request power generation amount that must be ensured in preparation for the case where the demand prediction deviates from the request power generation amount, i.e., the amount of power that must be generated every predetermined time, on the basis of the demand prediction value of power every predetermined time and the error during the object period of operation plan, a penalty acquisition unit for acquiring a penalty function for calculating a value depending on the deficiency for the request adjustment value, when the adjustment amount of power generation amount, that can be secured, is smaller than the request adjustment amount, and an operation plan generation unit for generating an operation plan so that the value of an expansion target function, obtained by adding a penalty function to a target function while satisfying the constraint conditions is minimized.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

  The present invention relates to an operation plan generation device, an operation plan generation method, and a program.

  Electricity demand changes from moment to moment depending on various factors such as the season, time of day, day of the week, etc., but if the balance between electricity demand and supply is disrupted, power system frequency and voltage changes, power outages, etc. occur and are stable. Troubles in the supply of power.

  For this reason, the power company that operates the power generation business predicts the power demand every day and operates each power plant so as to maintain a balance between supply and demand.

  For example, an electric power company predicts future power demand based on various information such as past power demand results and weather information, and formulates an operation plan for the generators in each power plant. I have control.

  When planning such an operation plan, it is necessary to consider various interrelated constraints such as power demand, power generation cost, generator power generation characteristics, inspection schedule, and so on. A mathematical model that can express a generator operation plan by expressing a mathematical formula and finding an optimal solution has also been developed. For example, a technique has been developed in which an operation plan is made using a mathematical model that takes into account errors included in power demand prediction, weather prediction, and the like (see, for example, Patent Document 1 and Patent Document 2).

  Patent Document 1 discloses a predicted value and actual value of a power generation output of a natural energy-based power generation facility that generates power using natural energy such as sunlight and wind power, and a prediction error calculated from a predicted value and actual value of power demand. Is used to create a plurality of power supply scenarios, and to create a power supply / demand plan that prioritizes cost reduction and a power supply / demand plan that prioritizes power supply / demand balance. When creating a power supply and demand plan that prioritizes power supply and demand balance, reserve capacity is ensured by increasing the number of controllable power generation equipment when the reserve capacity is insufficient, and the supply and demand plan can be operated even if an error occurs in the forecast. It is described that it is possible to plan.

  Further, in Patent Literature 2, a plurality of load forecast results based on feasible load prediction results and load forecast results are created, and the amount of correction at the time of supply and demand planning is obtained by obtaining load forecast results with probabilistic weights. It is described that the robustness of the supply and demand plan is improved by evaluating and selecting the optimum plan from the supply and demand plan group.

  On the other hand, in recent years, in order to cope with environmental problems and energy security problems, various distributed power sources such as solar power generation and wind power generation have been rapidly introduced. The specific gravity is also increasing.

  For this reason, various techniques for predicting the output and load from the power generation facility using natural energy and obtaining the estimated width of the prediction error have been developed (for example, see Non-Patent Documents 1 to 3).

  Non-Patent Document 1 and Non-Patent Document 2 describe obtaining a predicted value of an output from a power generation facility using natural energy and its estimated width. Non-Patent Document 3 describes obtaining an estimated width when a predicted load value and a weather forecast are different.

JP 2011-130484 A Patent No. 5248372

Naoto Ishibashi, 3 others, “Prediction of solar radiation using partial least square method and estimation method of its confidence interval”, IEEJ Transactions B, 2012, Vol. 133, no. 1, pp. 64-71 Tatsuya Iizaka and five others, “Wind power generation method and estimation method of its confidence interval”, IEEJ Transactions C, 2011, Vol. 131, no. 10, pp. 1672-1678 Shotaro Omi, 1 other "Short-term power load prediction expressing uncertainty by Gaussian process", IEEJ Transactions B, 2002, Vol. 126, no. 2, pages 202-208

  Thus, in recent years, the introduction of various distributed power sources has rapidly progressed, and the power supplied from these distributed power sources to the power system has increased, so existing hydropower plants and thermal power plants, When formulating an operation plan for a centralized power source such as a nuclear power plant, it is necessary to take into account the amount of power generated from these distributed power sources.

  However, the amount of power generated by the distributed power source greatly fluctuates depending on the weather and time of day, and the error in the forecast value is large. When making an operation plan for each power plant, there is a case where a solution that satisfies the constraints of each generator and cannot cope with fluctuations in the amount of power generated when the supply-demand forecast is lost has occurred.

  The present invention has been made in view of such a problem, and when making an operation plan for a plurality of power generation facilities linked to an electric power system, power supply and demand predictions are not satisfied while satisfying the constraint conditions of each power generation facility. Another object is to provide an operation plan generation device, an operation plan generation method, and a program capable of obtaining a solution that can cope with fluctuations in the amount of power generated.

  One of means for solving the above problem is an operation plan generation device for generating an operation plan of a plurality of power generation facilities linked to an electric power system, wherein the power generation cost or greenhouse gas of the plurality of power generation facilities is generated. An objective function for calculating the generation amount, an objective function acquisition unit for acquiring a constraint condition at the time of operation of the plurality of power generation facilities, a power supply / demand prediction value for each predetermined time during the target period of the operation plan, and Based on the error in the predicted supply and demand value, the plurality of power generation facilities secure the required power generation amount that is the power generation amount that should be generated by the plurality of power generation facilities every predetermined time and the case where the demand and supply prediction is out of order. A power generation amount calculation unit that calculates a required adjustment amount that is an adjustment amount from the required power generation amount to be kept, and a power generation amount adjustment amount that can be secured by the plurality of power generation facilities is smaller than the required adjustment amount To the required adjustment amount A penalty function obtaining unit for obtaining a penalty function for calculating a value corresponding to the shortage to the shortage, and the value of the extended objective function obtained by adding the penalty function to the objective function while satisfying the constraint condition is minimized And an operation plan generator for generating operation plans for the plurality of power generation facilities during the target period.

  In addition, the problems disclosed by the present application and the solutions thereof will be clarified by the description in the column of the embodiment for carrying out the invention and the description of the drawings.

  According to the present invention, when an operation plan of a plurality of power generation facilities connected to the power system is made, the variation in the amount of power generated when the power supply and demand prediction is deviated while satisfying the constraint condition of each power generation facility is also supported. It is possible to obtain a solution that can be used.

It is a figure which shows the whole structure of an electric power control system. It is a figure which shows the structure of an operation plan production | generation apparatus. It is a flowchart which shows the flow of control of an operation plan production | generation apparatus. It is a figure which shows the example of a distributed power generation amount prediction. It is a figure which shows the example of electric power demand prediction. It is a figure which shows the example of supplied electric power. It is a figure which shows the example of supplied electric power and request | requirement reserve power.

  At least the following matters will become apparent from the description of this specification and the accompanying drawings.

  FIG. 1 shows an overall configuration of a power system 1000 according to an embodiment of the present invention.

  In the power system 1000, a plurality of power supply sources 600 and a plurality of power load devices 700 are connected to the power system 500 via the power cable 510, and the plurality of power supply sources 600 and the plurality of power supply devices 700 are connected via the communication network 400. The power load device 700, and the monitoring control system 200 and the operation plan generation device 100 are connected to be communicable.

  The communication network 400 is configured by, for example, a public network including the Internet and a telephone line network, and a dedicated network such as a LAN (Local Area Network), etc., and each power supply source 600, each power load device 700, and monitoring via a communication cable 410. The control system 200 and the operation plan generation device 100 are connected to each other.

  The power load device 700 is an electrical device in a home or factory that consumes the power supplied via the power system 500.

  The power supply source 600 is a power source that extracts power energy from the energy source and supplies it to the power system 500. Like a hydroelectric power plant, a nuclear power plant, or a thermal power plant, the power generation amount can be controlled according to a prior power generation plan. A controllable power generation facility 610 that is a simple power generation facility, and a natural energy utilization power generation facility 620 that is a power generation facility whose power generation amount is difficult to control according to a prior power generation plan.

  Controllable power generation facilities 610 include, for example, thermal power plants, hydroelectric power plants, nuclear power plants, fuel cells, biomass power generation, power storage facilities such as batteries, and the like.

  The natural energy generation power generation facility 620 includes, for example, a power plant that performs solar power generation or wind power generation.

  The operation plan generation device 100 is an information processing device that generates operation plans for a plurality of controllable power generation facilities 610. Although the details will be described later, the operation plan generation device 100 according to the present embodiment sets the constraint condition of each controllable power generation facility 610 when making an operation plan of the plurality of controllable power generation facilities 610 connected to the power system 500. While satisfying this, it is possible to obtain a solution that can cope with fluctuations in the amount of power generated when the power supply and demand forecasts deviate.

  In addition, this embodiment demonstrates the case where the driving plan production | generation apparatus 100 produces | generates the driving plan of several controllable power generation equipment 610. FIG.

  The monitoring control system 200 is communicably connected to the power supply source 600, the power load device 700, and the operation plan generation device 100, and exchanges various information. For example, the monitoring control system 200 periodically acquires the actual power generation amount and the actual power consumption value from each power supply source 600 and each power load device 700 and transmits it to the operation plan generation device 100. The monitoring control system 200 generates a control command with a shorter cycle based on the operation plan generated by the operation plan generation device 100 and transmits the control command to each controllable power generation facility 610 to control each controllability. Real-time control of the power generation facility 610 is performed.

  Next, the configuration of the operation plan generation device 100 will be described with reference to FIG.

  The operation plan generation device 100 acquires the power measurement values (actual values) of the controllable power generation facility 610, the natural energy utilization power generation facility 620, and the power load device 700 from the monitoring control system 200. Further, the operation plan generation device 100 uses these actual values and various types of weather data to predict the power generation amount predicted by the natural energy generation power generation facility 620 and the error, and the power consumed by the power load device 700. Calculate the predicted value and error of the electricity demand. And the operation plan production | generation apparatus 100 produces the operation plan of the controllable power generation equipment 610 using the said predicted value and error.

  The time interval (predetermined time) for creating an operation plan is usually every 30 minutes or every hour, but this time interval can be set arbitrarily. In addition, the time range for creating the operation plan (target period of the operation plan) is usually one day or one week, but the time range for creating the operation plan can be arbitrarily set. Further, the created operation plan is transmitted to each controllable power generation facility 610 via the monitoring control system 200.

  The operation plan generation device 100 is a computer including a CPU (Central Processing Unit) (not shown), a nonvolatile storage device such as a memory and a hard disk, a keyboard, a monitor, a mouse, a communication device, a recording medium reader, and the like. Various functions as the operation plan generation device 100 are realized by reading the operation plan generation device control program 810 composed of codes for performing various operations according to the embodiment from the nonvolatile storage device and executing the program. .

  For example, although the details will be described later, the operation plan generation device control program 810 is executed by the CPU, and by cooperating with hardware devices such as a memory, a communication device, and a nonvolatile storage device, an objective function acquisition unit and a power generation amount calculation are performed. Part, penalty function acquisition part, operation plan generation part, etc. are realized.

  Further, the operation plan generation device 100 reads the operation plan generation device control program 810 from various recording media 800 such as a CD and a DVD and stores it in the nonvolatile storage device. Or the operation plan production | generation apparatus 100 receives the operation plan production | generation apparatus control program 810 from the other computer connected to the communication network 400, and stores it in a non-volatile storage device.

  Furthermore, the operation plan generation device 100 does not include a nonvolatile storage device, and the operation plan generation device control program 810 stored in another computer connected to the communication network 400 is read into the memory and executed. Is possible.

  As illustrated in FIG. 2, the operation plan generation apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment includes a power demand prediction unit 101, a natural energy generation power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 102, a required power calculation unit 103, an operation plan calculation unit 104, and an operation plan. An output unit 105, a power consumption DB (database) 110, a weather DB (database) 111, a natural energy utilization power generation facility power generation amount DB (database) 112, and a power generation facility DB (database) 113 are included.

  Among these, the operation plan calculation unit 104 includes the above-described objective function acquisition unit, penalty function acquisition unit, and operation plan generation unit. The required power calculation unit 103 includes the above-described power generation amount calculation unit. The power consumption DB 110, the weather DB 111, the natural energy utilization power generation facility power generation amount DB 112, and the power generation facility DB 113 are realized using a hard disk.

  The power consumption DB 110, the weather DB 111, the natural energy utilization power generation facility power generation amount DB 112, and the power generation facility DB 113 may be realized on a hard disk built in the operation plan generation device 100, or may be communicated like a cloud. It may be realized on a hard disk controlled by another computer connected to the computer.

  The power consumption DB 110 stores the power consumption transmitted from the power measurement device (not shown) installed in each power load device 700 via the communication network 400.

  In the weather DB 111, actual values and forecast values of various weather data transmitted from a weather server (not shown) via the communication network 400 are accumulated.

  In the natural energy generation power generation facility power generation amount DB 112, the actual value of the power generation amount transmitted from the power measurement device (not shown) installed in the natural energy generation power generation facility 620 via the communication network 400 is accumulated.

  The power generation facility DB 113 stores an objective function, a penalty function, an extended objective function, various constraint conditions for each controllable power generation facility 610, and the like according to the present embodiment described later.

  The natural energy utilization power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 102 stores the past actual value of the power generation amount of the natural energy utilization power generation facility 620 accumulated in the natural energy utilization power generation facility power generation amount DB 112 and the past accumulated in the weather DB 111. The predicted value and error of the power generation amount of the natural energy utilizing power generation facility 620 are calculated using the weather results and the weather forecast. The error of the predicted value includes an upper limit value and a lower limit value of the predicted value.

  Prediction of the power generation amount of the natural energy utilization power generation facility 620 can be performed using various techniques as described in Non-Patent Document 1, Non-Patent Document 2, and the like.

  In the present embodiment, as an example, the predicted value of the power generation amount of the natural energy utilizing power generation facility 620 is obtained from the average value of the past actual values, the upper limit value, and the lower limit value.

  The natural energy utilization power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 102 accumulates the predicted value, the prediction upper limit value, and the prediction lower limit value of the power generation amount of the natural energy utilization power generation facility 620 in the natural energy utilization power generation facility power generation amount DB 112.

  The power demand forecasting unit 101 includes past performance values of past power consumption (also referred to as power demand) stored in the power consumption DB 110 and past weather results and weather forecasts accumulated in the weather DB 111. Referring to Fig. 4, the predicted value of electric power demand and the assumed error are calculated. The expected error of the predicted value includes an upper limit value and a lower limit value of the predicted value.

  The prediction of power demand can be performed using the method described in Non-Patent Document 3.

  In the present embodiment, as an example, the predicted value of power demand is obtained from an average value, an upper limit value, and a lower limit value of past power demand.

  The power demand prediction unit 101 accumulates the power demand prediction value, the prediction upper limit value, and the prediction lower limit value in the power consumption DB 110.

  The required power calculation unit 103 uses the predicted value and error of the power consumption of the power load device 700 and the predicted value and error of the power generation amount of the natural energy generation power generation facility 620 to calculate the supplied power (required power generation amount). Calculate the required reserve (required adjustment amount).

  In the present embodiment, the supplied power is the amount of power generated per predetermined time that should be generated by the plurality of controllable power generation facilities 610 determined based on power supply and demand prediction. Further, in the present embodiment, the required reserve capacity is an adjustment amount from the required power generation amount that should be secured by the plurality of controllable power generation facilities 610 in order to maintain the supply / demand balance even when the power supply / demand prediction of power is off. is there. Further, the adjustment amount of the power generation amount that can be secured without changing the number of operating controllable power generation facilities 610 is also referred to as supply reserve capacity.

  In addition, there are two required reserve forces: an increase request reserve and a decrease request reserve. The required reserve capacity on the raising side is an increase when the amount of power generation needs to be increased rather than the supplied power. The lower-side required reserve capacity is a decrease when the power generation amount needs to be reduced rather than the supplied power. In other words, the increase-side required reserve capacity is an adjustment amount (reserve capacity) of the power generation amount required to increase the power generation output of the controllable power generation facility 610, and the decrease-side required reserve capacity is the controllable power generation facility 610. The amount of power generation adjustment (reserved power) required to reduce the power generation output.

  The operation plan calculation unit 104 uses a variety of data such as the supply power calculated by the required power calculation unit 103, the required reserve power, and the constraint conditions of the controllable power generation facility 610 stored in the power generation facility DB 113. The operation plan of the start / stop state of the power generation facility 610 and the power generation output is created.

  At this time, the operation plan calculation unit 104 uses the objective function for calculating the power generation cost of the plurality of controllable power generation facilities 610 from the power generation facility DB 113 and the adjustment amount of the power generation amount that can be secured by the plurality of controllable power generation facilities 610. And a penalty function for calculating a value corresponding to a shortage with respect to the required reserve when the required reserve is smaller than the required reserve. Then, the operation plan calculation unit 104 acquires the extended objective function by adding the penalty function to the objective function.

  And the operation plan calculation part 104 acquires the constraint conditions at the time of the driving | operation of several controllable power generation equipment 610 from power generation equipment DB113, and satisfy | fills this restriction condition, An operation plan is set so that the value of an extended objective function may become the minimum. The operation plan of the plurality of controllable power generation facilities 610 during the target period is generated. The objective function may calculate the amount of greenhouse gas generated.

  The operation plan output unit 105 transmits the operation plan calculated by the operation plan calculation unit 104 to the control unit of each controllable power generation facility 610 via the communication network 400 and also to the monitoring control system 200. The supervisory control system 200 performs real-time control of each controllable power generation facility 610 based on this operation plan.

  Next, the process flow of the operation plan creation apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to the flowchart shown in FIG.

  First, the natural energy utilization power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 102 predicts the power generation amount of the natural energy utilization power generation apparatus 620 (S1000). The natural energy generation power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 102 is a distributed power generation facility that is stored in the weather forecast transmitted from a weather server (not shown) connected to the communication network 400 and the natural energy generation power generation facility power generation amount DB 112. The power generation amount of the natural energy generation power generation facility 620 is predicted using the past actual performance value of the power generation amount 620 and the past weather performance accumulated in the weather DB 111.

  The natural energy utilization power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 102 uses, for example, a method described in Non-Patent Document 1, Non-Patent Document 2, and the like when predicting the power generation amount of the natural energy utilization power generation facility 620. Then, the predicted value, predicted upper limit value, and predicted lower limit value of the power generation amount of the natural energy generation power generation facility 620 are output.

  The natural energy utilization power generation facility power generation amount prediction unit 102 uses natural energy generation power generation in the same time range (for example, one day) and time interval (for example, 30 minutes) as a load prediction value (predicted value of power consumption) described later. The predicted value of the power generation amount of the facility 620 is calculated. FIG. 4 shows a prediction example of the power generation amount of the renewable utilization power generation facility 620 when the time range is one day and the time interval is 30 minutes.

  Next, the power demand prediction unit 101 performs load prediction, that is, prediction of power consumption by the power load device 700 (S1010). The power demand prediction unit 101 includes a weather forecast transmitted from a weather server (not shown) connected to the communication network 400, a past power consumption actual value by the power load device 700 stored in the power consumption DB 110, The load is predicted using the past weather record accumulated in the weather DB 111.

  The power demand prediction unit 101 outputs a load prediction value, a load prediction upper limit value, and a load prediction lower limit value using a method as described in Non-Patent Document 3 when performing load prediction.

  The power demand prediction unit 101 predicts a load predicted value at an arbitrary time interval (for example, 30 minutes) in an arbitrary time range (for example, one day) for creating an operation plan. FIG. 5 shows an example of load prediction when the time range is 1 day and the time interval is 30 minutes.

  Next, the required power calculation unit 103 stores the predicted power consumption amount (load predicted value) by the power load device 700 and the natural energy-based power generation stored in the power consumption DB 110 and the natural energy-based power generation facility power generation amount DB 112. The power supply to be supplied by the controllable power generation facility 610 is calculated using the predicted value of the power generation amount by the facility 620 (S1020).

  The required power calculation unit 103 obtains the supplied power by subtracting the predicted value of the amount of power generated by the natural energy utilizing power generation facility 620 from the predicted value of the power consumption, as shown in Expression (1).

但し、S_t ：時刻tにおける供給電力
L_t ：時刻tにおける負荷予測値
E_t ：時刻tにおける自然エネルギー利用発電設備の発電量の予測値
図４および図５の例から算出される供給電力を図６に示す。

Where _St : Power supplied at time t
L _t : Load predicted value at time t
E _t : Predicted value of power generation amount of natural energy utilization power generation facility at time t FIG. 6 shows the power supply calculated from the examples of FIGS. 4 and 5.

  Next, the required power calculation unit 103 stores the predicted upper limit value and the predicted lower limit value of the power consumption by the power load device 700 stored in the power consumption DB 110 and the natural energy utilizing power generation facility power generation DB 112, and the natural energy utilizing power generation facility. The required reserve capacity required for the controllable power generation facility 610 is calculated using the predicted upper limit value and predicted lower limit value of the power generation amount 620.

  There are two required reserve forces: an increase request reserve and a decrease request reserve. The increase request reserve is an increase in the power output of the controllable power generation facility 610, and the decrease request reserve is the control reserve of the controllable power generation facility 610. This reserve force is required when it is assumed that a prediction error occurs in the direction of power generation output reduction.

  The required power calculation unit 103 obtains the increase-side required reserve force by Equation (2) and obtains the decrease-side requirement reserve force by Equation (3). FIG. 7 shows the required reserve power and the supplied power calculated from the examples of FIGS.

但し、R_t ^up ：時刻tにおける上げ側要求予備力
L_t ^up ：時刻tにおける電力消費量の予測上限値
E_t ^down ：時刻tにおける自然エネルギー利用発電設備の発電量の予測下限値

However, R _t ^up : Increase required reserve at time t
L _t ^up : Predicted upper limit value of power consumption at time t
E _t ^down : Lower limit of prediction of power generation amount of power generation facility using natural energy at time t

但し、R_t ^down ：時刻tにおける下げ側要求予備力
L_t ^down ：時刻tにおける電力消費量の予測下限値
E_t ^up ：時刻tにおける自然エネルギー利用発電設備の発電量の予測上限値
次に運転計画算出部１０４は、要求電力算出部１０３によって算出された供給電力、上げ側要求予備力、下げ側要求予備力、さらに発電設備ＤＢ１１３に格納されている目的関数、ペナルティ関数、制約条件を用いて、複数の可制御発電設備６１０の運転計画を作成する（S1040）。

However, R _t ^down : Lower side required reserve at time t
L _t ^down : Forecast lower limit value of power consumption at time t
E _t ^up : Prediction upper limit value of power generation amount of natural energy generation power generation facility at time t Next, the operation plan calculation unit 104 supplies the power supply calculated by the required power calculation unit 103, the required increase reserve capacity, and the required decrease reserve capacity The operation plan of the plurality of controllable power generation facilities 610 is created using the power, the objective function, penalty function, and constraint conditions stored in the power generation facility DB 113 (S1040).

  The operation plan calculation unit 104 creates an operation plan by solving a so-called supply and demand plan problem. Generally, the supply and demand planning problem is an optimal solution that minimizes the objective function for calculating the power generation cost within a range that satisfies a separately set constraint condition (the start / stop state of each controllable power generation facility 610 and the power generation output). This is an optimization problem for finding an optimal combination of competence.

  The operation plan calculation unit 104 according to the present embodiment includes an adjustment amount of the power generation amount that can be secured by the plurality of controllable power generation facilities 610 in the objective function for calculating the power generation cost of the plurality of controllable power generation facilities 610. An extended objective function is generated by adding a penalty function that calculates a value corresponding to a shortage with respect to the required reserve when the force is smaller than the force, and the expansion is performed while satisfying the constraint conditions during operation of each controllable power generation facility 610 An operation plan is generated by obtaining a solution that minimizes the value of the objective function (that is, an optimal combination of the start / stop state of each controllable power generation facility 610 and the power generation output amount).

  Below, the example of the supply-and-demand plan problem which the operation plan calculation part 104 which concerns on this embodiment makes object is described. In formulating the supply and demand planning problem, there are a linear display method and a non-linear display method. In this embodiment, a non-linear display method is exemplified.

  The extended objective function of the present embodiment is expressed as shown in Equation (4).

但し、G_i、_t ^out ：可制御発電設備iの時刻tにおける発電出力
a_f、b_f、c_f：可制御発電設備iの燃料消費特性係数
u_i、_t ：可制御発電設備iの時刻tにおける起動停止状態(起動=1,停止=0)
FC_i ：可制御発電設備iの燃料従量料金単価
SUC_i,t ：可制御発電設備iの時刻tにおける起動費
P ：総ペナルティ（ペナルティ関数。詳細は後述する）
なお可制御発電設備６１０の発電出力Gは固定値とし、最適化変数から除くこともできる。

However, G _i , _t ^out : Power generation output of controllable power generation facility i at time t
a _f , b _f , c _f : Fuel consumption characteristic coefficient of controllable power generation facility i
u _i , _t : Start / stop state of controllable power generation facility i at time t (start = 1, stop = 0)
FC _i : Unit price of fuel charge for controllable power generation facility i
SUC _{i, t} : Startup cost of controllable power generation facility i at time t
P : Total penalty (penalty function; details will be described later)
The power generation output G of the controllable power generation facility 610 can be a fixed value and can be excluded from the optimization variable.

  On the other hand, the constraint conditions of the present embodiment are expressed as in Expression (5) to Expression (9).

  Equation (5) shows the supply and demand balance constraint.

式（６）は、可制御発電設備６１０の出力上下限制約を示す。

Formula (6) shows the output upper and lower limit constraints of the controllable power generation facility 610.

但し、G_i ^min ：可制御発電設備iの出力下限値（発電量の最小値）
G_i ^max ：可制御発電設備iの出力上限値（発電量の最大値）
式（７）は、可制御発電設備６１０の出力変化率上下限制約を示す。

However, G _i ^min : Output lower limit value of controllable power generation facility i (minimum value of power generation)
G _i ^max : Output upper limit value of controllable power generation facility i (maximum value of power generation)
Formula (7) shows the upper and lower limit constraints on the output change rate of the controllable power generation facility 610.

但し、ΔG_i ^downmax：可制御発電設備iの下降側最大変化率
ΔG_i ^upmax ：可制御発電設備iの上昇側最大変化率
Δt ：t-(t-1)=1
式（８）は、可制御発電設備の最小連続停止時間制約を示す。

Where ΔG _i ^{downmax is the} maximum rate of change on the descending side of the controllable power generation facility i ΔG _i ^{upmax is the} maximum rate of change on the ^{upside of the} controllable power generation facility i Δt: t- (t-1) = 1
Formula (8) shows the minimum continuous stop time constraint of the controllable power generation facility.

但し、mint_i ：可制御発電設備iの最小連続停止時間
式（９）は、可制御発電設備の最小連続運転時間制約を示す。

However, mint _i : Minimum continuous stop time of controllable power generation facility i Equation (9) shows the minimum continuous operation time constraint of the controllable power generation facility.

但し、minr_i ：可制御発電設備iの最小連続運転時間
また、本実施形態のペナルティ関数は、式（１０）に示すように示される。

However, minr _i : Minimum continuous operation time of the controllable power generation facility i Further, the penalty function of the present embodiment is expressed as shown in Expression (10).

  The penalty function of the present embodiment is obtained by the sum of the upside reserve force penalty (upward penalty function) and the downside reserve force penalty (downward penalty function).

  The increase side reserve capacity penalty calculates a value corresponding to the shortage when the adjustment amount that can be adjusted in the direction in which the plurality of controllable power generation facilities 610 increase the generation amount is insufficient with respect to the increase side required reserve capacity. It is a function. Similarly, the reduction side reserve penalty is a value corresponding to the shortage when the adjustment amount that can be adjusted in the direction in which the plurality of controllable power generation facilities 610 decrease the generation amount is insufficient with respect to the reduction side reserve reserve. Is a function for calculating

但し、P_t ^rsvup ：時刻tにおける上げ側予備力ペナルティ
P_t ^rsvdown ：時刻tにおける下げ側予備力ペナルティ
ここで、上げ側予備力ペナルティは、式（１１）及び式（１２）により示される。また下げ側予備力ペナルティは、式（１３）及び式（１４）により示される。

Where P _t ^rsvup : ^Upside reserve penalty at time t
P _t ^rsvdown : ^Lower side reserve penalty at time t Here, the higher side reserve penalty is expressed by Equation (11) and Equation (12). Further, the lower side reserve penalty is expressed by the equations (13) and (14).

但し、P_t ^rsvup ：時刻tにおける上げ側予備力ペナルティ
P_t ^rsvdown ：時刻tにおける下げ側予備力ペナルティ
r_t ^up ：時刻tにおける上昇側予備力
r_t ^down ：時刻tにおける下降側予備力
G_i、_t ^rsvup ：可制御発電設備iの時刻tにおける上昇側予備力
G_i、_t ^rsvdown ：可制御発電設備iの時刻tにおける下降側予備力
a_rsv、b_rsv ：予備力ペナルティ特性係数
運転計画算出部１０４は、上記の式（５）〜式（９）により特定される各可制御発電設備６１０の運転時の制約条件を満たしつつ、式（４）により特定される拡張目的関数の値が最小になるような解を求めることにより、運転計画を生成する。

Where P _t ^rsvup : ^Upside reserve penalty at time t
P _t ^rsvdown : ^Lower reserve penalty at time t
r _t ^up : Ascending reserve at time t
r _t ^down : descent reserve force at time t
G _i , _t ^rsvup : Ascending reserve capacity of controllable power generation facility i at time t
G _i , _t ^rsvdown : ^Lowering reserve force at time t of controllable power generation facility i
a _rsv , b _rsv : reserve power penalty characteristic coefficient The operation plan calculation unit 104 satisfies the constraint conditions during operation of each controllable power generation facility 610 specified by the above expressions (5) to (9), An operation plan is generated by obtaining a solution that minimizes the value of the extended objective function specified by (4).

  It should be noted that various methods known as so-called optimization problems can be used for solving the extended objective function.

  Then, the operation plan output unit 105 outputs the operation plan of each controllable power generation facility 610 created by the operation plan calculation unit 104, and transmits it to the monitoring control system 200 (S1050).

  Then, based on this operation plan, the supervisory control system 200 transmits a control command for the start / stop state and the power generation output amount to each controllable power generation facility 610.

  The operation plan generation device 100 according to the present embodiment has been described above. However, according to the operation plan generation device 100 according to the present embodiment, even when a plurality of controllable power generation facilities 610 cannot secure the required reserve capacity. An operation plan can be generated.

  As a result, since a solution can be obtained even in the case where a numerical solution of an operation plan cannot be obtained conventionally, it is possible to greatly reduce the work burden at the time of operation plan formulation.

  In addition, according to the operation plan generation device 100 according to the present embodiment, not only when the adjustment amount of the power generation amount that should be secured in preparation for the case where the power supply and demand prediction deviates, does not satisfy the increase side reserve reserve, Even if the lowering side reserve reserve is not satisfied, an operation plan can be generated.

  As a result, even in the case where the conventional operation plan has been adapted to meet the downside requirement reserve capacity by stopping the operation of the power generation equipment, there is also a flexible operation plan that keeps the power generation equipment without stopping. As a result, the efficient operation of the power plant can be promoted.

  Furthermore, the operation plan generation apparatus 100 according to the present embodiment can formulate an operation plan that can be operated within an assumed error range even when the power supply and demand prediction is out of the range.

  In addition, the operation plan generation device 100 according to the present embodiment does not fix the variable range of the value of the supply reserve by the constraint condition, but uses the penalty value as an objective function when the supply reserve is less than the required reserve. By using the method of adding, even if there is a point in time when it is not possible to obtain an operation plan that can satisfy the required supply reserve due to the restrictions of the controllable power generation facility 610, an excellent operation plan within a feasible range is obtained. Can be output.

  Therefore, the operation plan generation device 100 according to the present embodiment can create an optimization problem in which the best operation plan is output even when there is a point in time when reserve capacity cannot be secured.

  The embodiments described above are for facilitating the understanding of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the present invention. The present invention can be changed and improved without departing from the gist thereof, and equivalents thereof are also included in the present invention.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 100 Operation plan production | generation apparatus 101 Electric power demand prediction part 102 Natural energy generation power generation facility electric power generation amount prediction part 103 Required electric power calculation part 104 Operation plan calculation part 105 Operation plan output part 110 Electricity consumption DB
111 Weather DB
112 Natural energy use power generation facility power generation DB
113 Power generation facility DB
200 monitoring control system 400 network 410 communication cable 500 power system 510 power cable 600 power supply source 610 controllable power generation facility 620 natural energy generation power generation facility 700 power load device 800 recording medium 810 operation plan generation device control program 1000 power system

Claims (6)

An operation plan generation device that generates an operation plan for a plurality of power generation facilities linked to an electric power system,
An objective function for calculating a power generation cost or a generation amount of greenhouse gas of the plurality of power generation facilities, and an objective function acquisition unit for acquiring a constraint condition during operation of the plurality of power generation facilities;
Based on the power supply / demand prediction value for each predetermined time during the target period of the operation plan and the error of the power supply / demand prediction value, the required power generation amount that is the power generation amount to be generated by the plurality of power generation facilities for each predetermined time; A power generation amount calculation unit that calculates a required adjustment amount that is an adjustment amount from the required power generation amount that should be secured by the plurality of power generation facilities in preparation for the case where the supply and demand prediction is off,
A penalty function acquisition unit that acquires a penalty function for calculating a value corresponding to a shortage with respect to the required adjustment amount when an adjustment amount of the generated power amount that can be secured by the plurality of power generation facilities is smaller than the required adjustment amount;
Operation plan generation for generating an operation plan for the plurality of power generation facilities during the target period so that the value of the extended objective function obtained by adding the penalty function to the objective function is minimized while satisfying the constraint condition And
An operation plan generation device comprising: The operation plan generation device according to claim 1,
The demand adjustment amount is an increase request adjustment amount when the power generation amount needs to be increased more than the demand power generation amount, and a decrease amount when the power generation amount needs to be reduced more than the demand power generation amount. Including a certain amount of adjustment required on the downside,
The penalty function is an ascending penalty function that calculates a value corresponding to a shortage when an adjustment amount that can be secured in a direction in which the plurality of power generation facilities increase the power generation amount is insufficient with respect to the increase request adjustment amount. And a descending penalty function for calculating a value corresponding to the shortage when the adjustment amount that can be secured in the direction in which the plurality of power generation facilities reduce the power generation amount is insufficient with respect to the lower side required adjustment amount, An operation plan generation device comprising: The operation plan generation device according to claim 1 or 2,
The error in the supply and demand prediction value is a value obtained from the difference between the assumption error with respect to the prediction value of power demand in the target period of the operation plan and the error in the prediction value of the amount of power generated by the natural energy generation power generation facility. An operation plan generation device characterized by being. The operation plan generation device according to any one of claims 1 to 3,
The operation plan generating apparatus, wherein the operation plan includes information indicating a start / stop state and a power generation amount for each predetermined time of each of the plurality of power generation facilities. An operation plan generation method for generating an operation plan for a plurality of power generation facilities linked to an electric power system,
An objective function for calculating a power generation cost or greenhouse gas generation amount of the plurality of power generation facilities, and a constraint condition during operation of the plurality of power generation facilities,
Based on the power supply / demand prediction value for each predetermined time during the target period of the operation plan and the error of the power supply / demand prediction value, the required power generation amount that is the power generation amount to be generated by the plurality of power generation facilities for each predetermined time; Calculating a required adjustment amount that is an adjustment amount from the required power generation amount that should be secured by the plurality of power generation facilities in order to maintain a balance between supply and demand even when the supply and demand prediction is off,
When a power generation amount adjustment amount that can be secured by the plurality of power generation facilities is smaller than the required adjustment amount, obtain a penalty function that calculates a value corresponding to the shortage relative to the required adjustment amount,
Generating an operation plan for the plurality of power generation facilities during the target period so that the value of the extended objective function obtained by adding the penalty function to the objective function is minimized while satisfying the constraint condition; Operation plan generation method. In the operation plan generator that generates operation plans for multiple power generation facilities linked to the power system,
Means for obtaining an objective function for calculating a power generation cost or a generation amount of greenhouse gas of the plurality of power generation facilities, and a constraint condition during operation of the plurality of power generation facilities;
Based on the power supply / demand prediction value for each predetermined time during the target period of the operation plan and the error of the power supply / demand prediction value, the required power generation amount that is the power generation amount to be generated by the plurality of power generation facilities for each predetermined time; Means for calculating a required adjustment amount that is an adjustment amount from the required power generation amount that should be secured by the plurality of power generation facilities in preparation for the case where the supply and demand prediction is off;
Means for obtaining a penalty function for calculating a value corresponding to a shortage with respect to the required adjustment amount when an adjustment amount of the generated power amount that can be secured by the plurality of power generation facilities is smaller than the required adjustment amount;
Means for generating an operation plan of the plurality of power generation facilities during the target period so that the value of the extended objective function obtained by adding the penalty function to the objective function is minimized while satisfying the constraint condition;
Program to realize.

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