JP6197689B2 - Operation plan support program, operation plan support method, and operation plan support apparatus - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to an operation plan support program and the like.

  In recent years, there is a PPS (Power Producer and Supplier) business called new power. PPS operators aim to increase profits by supplying power to high-voltage consumers such as factories and companies as well as low-voltage consumers such as ordinary households.

  In addition, PPS operators actively use renewable energy and own power generation facilities to maintain a balance between power supply and demand.

  For example, the center of renewable energy is solar power generation and wind power generation, and may be affected by the natural environment. For this reason, when the supply is insufficient with respect to the demand for electric power, the PPS company controls its own power generation facility to compensate for the insufficient electric power or procure electric power from an external organization.

JP 2004-72900 A

  However, the above-described conventional technology has a problem that it is not possible to detect a sign that the balance between power demand and supply is lost earlier and feed it back to the operation plan.

  PPS operators, etc., respond to changes in the operation plan of their own power generation facilities when the amount of power generated by renewable energy fluctuates due to fluctuations in the weather and temperature, or when power demand fluctuates, Procurement will keep the balance between supply and demand. Here, in the case of controlling the in-house power generation facility or when power is procured from an external organization, it cannot be dealt with without a certain amount of delay. However, the current situation is that it is not possible to detect a sign that the balance between power supply and demand will be lost sooner.

  The above problem is not limited to PPS operators, but also occurs in the technical field where electric power is supplied to customers through renewable energy, in-house power generation facilities, and external procurement.

  In one aspect, an object is to provide an operation plan support program, an operation plan support method, and an operation plan support device that can detect a sign that the balance between supply and demand of electric power is lost and feed back to an operation plan. To do.

  In the first plan, the computer executes the following processing. The computer calculates a demand amount of power, a first power generation amount based on a generator operation plan, and a second power generation amount based on weather prediction. The computer executes a determination process based on a difference value between the addition value obtained by adding the first power generation amount and the second power generation amount and the demand amount. The computer displays the calculation result of the demand amount, the first power generation amount, and the second power generation amount and the execution result of the determination process in association with the time axis. When the computer displays the execution result and the calculation result of the determination process and then receives a request for changing the operation plan, the computer executes the change process of the operation plan of the generator, and performs the first operation based on the changed operation plan. The amount of power generation is calculated, and the display is updated.

  According to one embodiment of the invention, a sign that the balance between power demand and supply is lost can be detected earlier and fed back to the operation plan.

FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a configuration of a system according to the present embodiment. FIG. 2 is a functional block diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of the operation plan creation device. FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of demand forecast data. FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of the data structure of the generator information. FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of a data structure of the power generation prediction data. FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of the data structure of the supplier data. FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of the data structure of the condition data. FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating an example of a data structure of the operation plan table. FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating an example of operation plan data. FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of the ratio of supply to demand. FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating an example of the amount of power that can be generated by the generator. FIG. 12 is a diagram (1) illustrating an example of a screen displayed by the display processing unit. FIG. 13 is a diagram (2) illustrating an example of a screen displayed by the display processing unit. FIG. 14 is a diagram (3) illustrating an example of a screen displayed by the display processing unit. FIG. 15 is a flowchart illustrating a processing procedure of the operation plan creation device according to the present embodiment. FIG. 16 is a diagram illustrating a flowchart of processing for calculating a procurement plan and an operation plan. FIG. 17 is a diagram illustrating an example of a computer that executes a display program.

  Embodiments of an operation plan support program, an operation plan support method, and an operation plan support apparatus disclosed in the present application will be described below in detail with reference to the drawings. Note that the present invention is not limited to the embodiments.

  FIG. 1 is a diagram illustrating a configuration of a system according to the present embodiment. As shown in FIG. 1, this system includes power generators 10a to 10c, solar power generators 11a to 11c, wind power generators 12a to 12c, geothermal power generators 13a to 13c, hydroelectric power generators 14a to 14c, and biomass power generator 15a. ~ 15c. The system includes power companies 20a to 20c, high-voltage customers 30, low-voltage customers 40, power suppliers 50a to 50c, and PPS (Power Producer and Supplier) 100. Each apparatus 10-15,20,30,40,50 is mutually connected by the electric wire 5 grade | etc.,. The PPS 100 is not connected to the electric wire 5 and directly controls the devices 10 to 15 remotely by communication, or performs indirect control by instructing by telephone contact with an administrator of the device.

  The generators 10a to 10c are devices that generate electric power using something other than renewable energy. For example, the generator 10 corresponds to a gas turbine generator or the like. The generators 10a to 10c are collectively referred to as a generator 10 as appropriate. The generator 10 generates electric power based on an operation plan created by an operation plan creation device 200 described later. Although omitted in FIG. 1, generators other than the generators 10a to 10c may be included.

  The solar power generators 11a to 11c are devices that convert sunlight into electric power using a solar panel or the like. The solar power generators 11a to 11c are collectively referred to as the solar power generator 11 as appropriate. Although description is abbreviate | omitted in FIG. 1, solar power generators other than the solar power generators 11a-11c may be included.

  The wind power generators 12a to 12c are devices that rotate a windmill with wind power and convert the rotational motion into electric power. The wind power generators 12a to 12c are collectively referred to as a wind power generator 12 as appropriate. Although description is abbreviate | omitted in FIG. 1, wind power generators other than the wind power generators 12a-12c may be included.

  The geothermal power generators 13a to 13c are devices that generate electric power using steam extracted from deep underground. The geothermal power generators 13a to 13c are collectively referred to as a geothermal power generator 13 as appropriate. Although description is abbreviate | omitted in FIG. 1, geothermal power generators other than the geothermal power generators 13a-13c may be included.

  The hydroelectric generators 14a to 14c are devices that are installed in the vicinity of a dam or the like and generate electric power using energy when water falls. The hydroelectric generators 14a to 14c are collectively referred to as a hydroelectric generator 14 as appropriate. Although description is abbreviate | omitted in FIG. 1, hydraulic power generators other than the geothermal power generators 14a-14c may be contained.

  The biomass power generators 15a to 15c are devices that generate electric power by directly combusting or gasifying biological resources. The biomass generators 15a to 15c are collectively referred to as a biomass generator 15 as appropriate. Although description is abbreviate | omitted in FIG. 1, biomass power generators other than biomass power generators 15a-15c may be contained.

  Although the electric power companies 20a to 20c perform control so that the entire receiving balance of the electric wires 5 can be maintained, and when the PPS 100 cannot maintain the receiving balance, the electric power companies 20a to 20c supplement the electric power and maintain the receiving balance of the entire electric wires 5. It is also possible to play a role as a power supplier by making a contract. In the following description, the electric power companies 20a to 20c are collectively referred to as the electric power company 20 as appropriate.

  The high-voltage consumer 30 is a facility that is a power supply destination, and corresponds to, for example, a factory or a company. The low-voltage consumer 40 is a facility that is a power supply destination, and corresponds to, for example, a general house. Although FIG. 1 shows the high-pressure consumer 30 and the low-voltage consumer 40 as an example, other customers may be included.

  The power suppliers 50a to 50c are a kind of power generation company that can supply power when the power is insufficient by making a contract with the PPS 100. Procurement is done through the Japan Wholesale Power Exchange, or directly contracted with a power generation company. In addition, the power suppliers 50a to 50c perform power supply based on a power procurement plan created by the operation plan creation device 200 described later. The explanation regarding the procurement plan will be described later. In the following description, the power suppliers 50a to 50c are collectively referred to as a power supplier 50 as appropriate.

  The PPS 100 supplies power generated by the power generator 10, the solar power generator 11, the wind power generator 12, the geothermal power generator 13, the hydroelectric power generator 14, and the biomass power generator 15 to the high-pressure consumer 30 and the low-pressure consumer 40. Device. In addition, when the power supply is insufficient with respect to the power demand, the PPS 100 reviews the operation plan of the generator 10 to compensate for the insufficient power. The PPS 100 procures the insufficient power from the power company 20 when the power generator 10 cannot be used to compensate for the insufficient power.

  The PPS 100 supplies power generated by the power generator 10, the solar power generator 11, the wind power generator 12, the geothermal power generator 13, the hydroelectric power generator 14, and the biomass power generator 15 to the high-pressure consumer 30 and the low-pressure consumer 40. It is a business operator that makes a plan and controls it directly, or indirectly gives control instructions to the operation manager of the generator. In addition, when the power supply is insufficient with respect to the power demand, the PPS 100 reviews the operation plan of the generator 10 to compensate for the insufficient power. The PPS 100 procures the insufficient power from the power supplier 50 when the deficient power cannot be compensated by using the generator 10.

  FIG. 2 is a functional block diagram illustrating an example of the configuration of the operation plan creation device. As illustrated in FIG. 2, the operation plan creation apparatus 200 includes a communication unit 210, an input unit 220, a display unit 230, a storage unit 240, and a control unit 250.

  The communication unit 210 performs data communication with the power generator 10, the solar power generator 11, the wind power generator 12, the geothermal power generator 13, the hydroelectric power generator 14, the biomass power generator 15, the power supplier 50, and the like via the network. Is a processing unit. For example, the communication unit 210 corresponds to a communication device.

  The input unit 220 is an input device for inputting various types of information to the operation plan creation device 200. For example, the input unit 220 corresponds to a keyboard, a mouse, a touch panel, or the like.

  The display unit 230 is a display device that displays information output from the control unit 250. For example, the display unit 230 corresponds to a liquid crystal display, a touch panel, or the like.

  The storage unit 240 includes demand data 241, maintenance plan planning data 242, power generation prediction data 243, supplier data 244, condition data 245, and operation plan table 246. For example, the storage unit 240 corresponds to a semiconductor memory device such as a RAM (Random Access Memory), a ROM (Read Only Memory), and a flash memory (Flash Memory), and a storage device such as an HDD (Hard Disk Drive).

  The demand prediction data 241 is time series data of demand power predicted by the high-voltage consumer 30 and the low-voltage consumer 40 in the system. For example, the demand prediction data 241 is data in which each time zone in a day is associated with a demand power value. This power demand value is calculated from statistical data of past power consumption values, for example. FIG. 3 is a diagram illustrating an example of demand forecast data. The horizontal axis of FIG. 3 indicates time [h], and the vertical axis indicates the demand power value [kW].

The maintenance planning data 242 includes generator information, hourly system loss rate information, hourly in-house loss rate information, CO ₂ conversion coefficient, and cost data.

  Among these, the generator information holds various information related to the generator 10. FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example of the data structure of the generator information. As shown in FIG. 4, this generator information associates generator identification information, rated output, maximum output ratio, maximum output, minimum output ratio, minimum output, and operation time. The generator identification information is information that uniquely identifies the generator. The rated output, maximum output ratio, and minimum output ratio indicate the rated output, maximum output ratio, and minimum output ratio of the generator identified by the generator identification information, respectively.

  The operation time indicates the time during which the generator identified by the generator identification information is operated. When maintenance work or inspection is performed on the generator, the operation of the generator is stopped. Although not described in the example of FIG. 4, the information corresponding to the operation time may include information on a time zone in which the generator can be operated for each time of each date.

  The hourly system loss rate information is information on the hourly power loss rate in the electric wire 5.

  The hourly in-house loss rate information is information on the hourly power loss rate of the facilities constituting the generator when the generator 10 supplies power to the high-voltage consumer 30 or the low-voltage consumer 40.

The CO ₂ conversion coefficient and cost data are parameters used when creating an operation plan and a procurement plan to be described later.

  The power generation prediction data 243 is time series data of predicted power generated by the solar power generator 11, the wind power generator 12, the geothermal power generator 13, the hydroelectric power generator 14, and the biomass power generator 15. FIG. 5 is a diagram illustrating an example of a data structure of the power generation prediction data. The horizontal axis of FIG. 5 indicates time [h], and the vertical axis indicates the predicted generated power value [kW].

The supplier data 244 holds various types of information related to suppliers that supply electric power. The power source is, for example, the power company 20. FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of the data structure of the supplier data. As shown in FIG. 6, the supplier data 244 associates supplier identification information, type, supplyable time, supply amount / supply unit price, and CO ₂ emission coefficient.

The supplier data 244 holds various types of information related to the power supplier 50 that procures power. FIG. 6 is a diagram illustrating an example of the data structure of the supplier data. As shown in FIG. 6, the supplier data 244 associates supplier identification information, type, supplyable time, supply amount / supply unit price, and CO ₂ emission coefficient.

  The condition data 245 is a condition used when creating an operation plan to be described later. FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating an example of the data structure of the condition data. As shown in FIG. 7, the condition data 245 includes a plan unit, a plan time, a plan stop time, a screen refresh interval, and a convergence condition. The planning unit indicates the minimum unit for switching the start / stop of the generator. The planned time indicates the period of the operation plan. For example, when the plan unit is “30 minutes” and the plan time is “84 hours”, an operation plan of 168 frames is created.

  The planned time-out time is the time during which the creation of the operation plan is stopped. The screen refresh interval is an interval at which the display processing unit 253 described later refreshes the screen. The convergence condition is a convergence condition used when an operation plan is created using a solution called a metaheuristic such as a local search method. When the difference between a certain operation plan and the next operation plan falls within the convergence condition, the operation plan search by the local search method or the like is terminated.

The operation plan table 246 is a table that holds a plurality of types of operation plans. FIG. 8 is a diagram illustrating an example of a data structure of the operation plan table. As shown in FIG. 8, this operation plan table associates an operation plan identification number, an operation plan, a power generation cost, a CO ₂ emission amount, a selection ratio, a date, a start time, and an end time.

Among these, the operation plan identification number is information for uniquely identifying each operation plan. The operation plan is information on an operation plan corresponding to each operation identification number. The power generation cost is the power generation cost of the generator 10 corresponding to the operation plan. CO ₂ emissions are emissions of CO ₂ is discharged from the generator 10 corresponding to the operation plan.

The selection ratio is information indicating a ratio between the power generation cost and the CO ₂ emission amount. For example, the numerical value on the left side of the selection ratio indicates the power generation cost ratio, and the numerical value on the right side corresponds to the numerical value of the CO ₂ emission amount. When the emphasis is on making the power generation cost smaller than the CO ₂ emission amount, the numerical value on the left side of the selection ratio becomes larger than the numerical value on the right side. When the emphasis is on reducing the CO ₂ emission amount rather than the power generation cost, the numerical value on the right side of the selection ratio becomes larger than the numerical value on the left side.

  The date corresponds to the date when the corresponding operation plan is created. The start time indicates the time when the creation of the corresponding operation plan is started. The end time indicates the time when the corresponding operation plan has been created.

  Next, an example of operation plan data included in the operation plan table 246 of FIG. 8 will be described. FIG. 9 is a diagram illustrating an example of operation plan data. As shown in FIG. 9, the operation plan data associates generator identification information with parameters. The generator identification information is information that uniquely identifies the generator.

  The parameter indicates an operation plan every 30 minutes for each generator. When the plan unit is “30 minutes” and the plan time is “84 hours”, an operation plan of 168 frames is created. The first frame at the left end shows the state of the generator from 0 to 29 minutes, and the second frame shows the state of the generator from 30 to 59 minutes. The 168th frame at the right end shows the state of the generator from 83 hours 30 minutes to 84 hours. 0 or 1 is set in each frame. “0” indicates that the state of the generator 10 is stopped. “1” indicates that the state of the generator 10 is activated.

  The actual demand data 247 indicates the actual value of the demand power in the high voltage consumer 30 and the low voltage consumer 40 in the system. For example, the demand record data 247 associates each time zone and the actual value of demand power up to the present time. The demand record data 247 is periodically notified and updated from a predetermined device in the system.

  The generator performance data 248 is information on the actual values of the power generated by the solar power generator 11, the wind power generator 12, the geothermal power generator 13, the hydroelectric power generator 14, and the biomass power generator 15. For example, the generator performance data 248 associates each time zone and generated power up to the present time. The generator performance data 248 is periodically notified and updated from a predetermined device in the system.

  The control unit 250 includes a procurement optimization processing unit 251, an operation plan optimization processing unit 252, and a display processing unit 253. The control unit 250 corresponds to an integrated device such as an application specific integrated circuit (ASIC) or a field programmable gate array (FPGA). The control unit 250 corresponds to an electronic circuit such as a CPU (Central Processing Unit) or an MPU (Micro Processing Unit).

  The procurement optimization processing unit 251 is a processing unit that creates a procurement plan based on dynamic programming or the like. For example, the procurement plan is information indicating the relationship between the supplier and the power to be procured for each hour.

The procurement optimization processing unit 251 compares the demand prediction data 241, the power generation prediction data 243, and the operation plan created by the operation plan optimization processing unit 252, and specifies an insufficient amount of power for each hour. The procurement optimization processing unit 251 specifies a combination of suppliers for compensating for a shortage of electric power every hour based on the supplier data 244. Then, the procurement optimization processing unit 251 identifies the combination with the lowest power generation cost and the small amount of CO ₂ emission among the combinations of the suppliers by using dynamic programming or the like.

  The procurement optimization processing unit 251 assumes that the initial operation plan is that all the generators 10 that can be operated generate power with the maximum generated power. The procurement optimization processing unit 251 outputs the created procurement plan information to the operation plan optimization processing unit 252. Then, the procurement optimization processing unit 251 newly acquires an updated operation plan from the operation plan optimization processing unit 252, creates a procurement plan again based on the acquired operation plan, and creates the procurement The plan is output to the operation plan optimization processing unit 252. The procurement optimization processing unit 251 repeatedly executes such processing to create an optimal procurement plan.

  The dynamic programming method, etc., is disclosed in the literature <“Generation of power generator operation plan for power supply and demand operation”, Japan Operations Research Society, Japan, May 1997 issue 341-344 Kenichi Kawada et al. Has been. The procurement optimization processing unit 251 may create a procurement plan using the disclosed conventional dynamic programming, or may create a procurement plan using another dynamic programming. .

  The operation plan optimization processing unit 252 is a processing unit that creates an operation plan using a local search method or the like. The operation plan optimization processing unit 252 is an example of a calculation unit. The operation plan optimization processing unit 252 is, for example, information in which the operation plan defines start “1” and stop “0” for each frame as shown in the parameters of FIG.

  The operation plan optimization processing unit 252 identifies the power generated by the generator 10 to satisfy the demand based on the demand prediction data 241, the power generation prediction data 243, and the procurement plan. The operation plan optimization processing unit 252 sets the parameter value of each frame to “0” or “1” under the constraint that satisfies the amount of power generated by the generator 10 based on the generator information shown in FIG. ”Is randomly specified, and an initial operation plan is created.

The operation plan optimization processing unit 252 calculates the power generation cost of the initial operation plan and the CO ₂ emission amount due to power generation as follows, and registers them in the operation plan table 246. The operation plan optimization processing unit 252 calculates the power generation cost of the operation plan using Equation (1).

In equation (1), _pit represents the output of the generator at time t of the generator i. u _it shows the start and stop state of the power generator at time t of the generator i. If the generator is running, the value "1" next to the u, if the generator is not running, the value of u _it becomes "0". SC _i indicates the startup cost of the generator i.

In Equation (1), FCOST _i (p _it ) is defined by Equation (2).

In formula (2), a _i , b _i , and c _i indicate fuel characteristics for each generator.

In addition, the operation plan optimization processing unit 252 calculates the CO ₂ emission amount due to power generation using the equation (3).

In the equation (3), FCO2 _i (P _it ) indicates the CO ₂ emission amount and is defined by the equation (4).

In Equation 4, RateCO2 _i represents a CO ₂ emission conversion coefficient.

The operation plan optimization processing unit 252 changes some parameters of the operation plan under a constraint condition that satisfies the amount of power generated by the generator 10 to satisfy the demand and supply, and generates the power generation cost of the previous operation plan. And the operation plan which becomes the power generation cost and the CO ₂ emission amount lower than the emission amount and CO ₂ is searched using the local search method. The operation plan optimization processing unit 252 registers the searched operation plan information in the operation plan table 246 and outputs the operation plan information to the procurement optimization processing unit 251.

  When creating the operation plan, the operation plan optimization processing unit 252 may associate the procurement plan acquired from the procurement optimization processing unit 251 and register it in the operation plan table 246.

When the operation plan optimization processing unit 252 obtains the procurement plan from the procurement optimization processing unit 251 again, the operation plan optimization processing unit 252 repeats the process of creating the operation plan based on the above-described local search method based on the obtained procurement plan. Run. Operation plan optimization processor 252, a power generation cost and CO ₂ emissions of the previous operation plan, changes in the power generation cost and CO ₂ emissions of this operation plan, if the convergence condition is satisfied, the operation plan Finish creation.

  For example, when the expressions (5) and (6) are satisfied, the operation plan optimization processing unit 252 ends the creation of the operation plan.

  Absolute value ((power generation cost of previous operation plan-power generation cost of current operation plan) / power generation cost of current operation plan) <convergence condition (5)

Absolute value ((CO ₂ emissions of the previous operation plan - CO ₂ emissions of the current operational plan) / CO ₂ emissions of the current operational plan) <convergence condition (6)

  The local search method is disclosed in the literature <"Metaheuristics Application Technology to Power Systems", The Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan, Metaheuristics Application Research Committee for Electric Power Systems, 2003/06/10>. Moreover, it is disclosed by Unexamined-Japanese-Patent No. 2013-132195. The operation plan optimization processing unit 232 may create an operation plan using the disclosed local search method, or may create an operation plan using another local search method.

  FIG. 10 is a diagram illustrating an example of the ratio of supply to demand. The horizontal axis in FIG. 10 represents time, and the vertical axis represents supply power. Here, as an example, the demand power at each time is 1a, 1b, 1c, and 1d, respectively. Then, for example, the power by procurement at 13:00 is 2a, the power by the generator 10 is 2b, and the power by renewable energy is 2c. The power from procurement at 13:30 is 3a, the power from the generator 10 is 3b, and the power from renewable energy is 3c. The power from procurement at 14:00 is 4a, the power from the generator 10 is 4b, and the power from renewable energy is 4c. The power by procurement at 14:30 is 5a, the power by the generator 10 is 5b, and the power by renewable energy is 5c. It is assumed that the amount of power supplied by the generator covers a predetermined ratio with respect to the demand power. The predetermined ratio is, for example, 16%.

  In addition, since the generator 10 has a restriction | limiting in the minimum maximum output ratio, the electric energy which can be generated will be in a stepping stone state. FIG. 11 is a diagram illustrating an example of the amount of power that can be generated by the generator. For example, in the generator information shown in FIG. 4, the amount of power generation cannot be supplied for portions other than the shaded area in FIG. 11.

  Returning to the description of FIG. The display processing unit 253 is a processing unit that displays information on the demand prediction data 241, the power generation prediction data 243, the power generation amount based on the procurement plan, and the power generation amount based on the operation plan on the screen of the display unit 230. For example, the display processing unit 253 calculates the power generation amount according to the procurement plan based on the procurement plan obtained from the procurement optimization processing unit 251 and the supplier data 244 based on the power generation amount based on the procurement plan. The display processing unit 253 calculates the power generation amount based on the operation plan based on the operation plan table 246 and the generator information.

  In the following description, the power generation amount based on the operation plan is combined with the power generation amount based on the procurement plan and the power generation amount based on the operation plan. Further, the power generation amount generated by the solar power generator 11 and the wind power generator 12 specified from the power generation prediction data 243 is expressed as a power generation amount based on weather prediction.

  12-14 is a figure which shows an example of the screen which a display process part displays. For example, in FIG. 12, the horizontal axis indicates time, and the vertical axis indicates power value. The demand curve 51 shows the demand amount of each time zone created based on the demand forecast data 241. The demand curve 51 is corrected based on the demand record data 247. The black bars in each time zone indicate the amount of power generation based on the operation plan. The shaded bars for each time body indicate the amount of power generation based on weather forecasts. The power generation amount based on the weather forecast is corrected based on the generator performance data 248. The determination unit 52 indicates whether or not the balance between supply and supply is maintained. The calculation execution button 53 is a button that is pressed by the user by operating the input unit 220 when the operation plan is calculated again.

  12 to 14, the current time zone is a time zone 61 (12:00 to 12:30). In the time zone 60, the actual value of the power generation amount based on the operation plan every 30 minutes of the past 3 hours, the solar power generator 11, the wind power generator 12, the geothermal power generator 13, the hydroelectric power generator 14, and the biomass power generator 15 The actual value of the amount of power generated is shown. In the time zone 62, the plan value of the power generation amount based on the operation plan every 30 minutes of the next 30 minutes to 84 hours ahead of the current 30 minutes and the power generation amount based on the weather prediction are shown.

  The display processing unit 253 displays the demand curve 51 based on the demand prediction data 241. In addition, the display processing unit 253 corrects the demand curve 51 based on the demand curve result data 247 that is periodically updated. For example, the display processing unit 253 uses the demand forecast data 241 and the demand record data 247 at the same time, and corrects the demand curve 51 by a method called data assimilation in which the demand forecast data is updated using the demand record data. This data assimilation method is described in the literature <“Predicting several hours ahead of power load using linear regression model updated by Kalman filter” Masatoshi Nakamura (Saga Univ.), Hiroaki Hatasaki (Kyushu Electric Power Co.) Sector Journal 103 (4), P251-258, 1983-04 The Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan>.

  The display processing unit 253 displays the power generation amount based on the weather prediction based on the power generation prediction data 243. Further, the display processing unit 253 corrects the power generation amount based on the weather prediction based on the power generation result data 248 that is periodically updated. The correction method uses a data assimilation method in the same manner as the update of demand forecast data.

  The display processing unit 253 calculates a difference value between the value obtained by adding the power generation amount based on the operation plan and the power generation amount based on the weather prediction and the demand amount based on the demand curve 51, and causes the determination unit 52 to display the calculation result. In the following description, a value obtained by adding the power generation amount based on the operation plan and the power generation amount based on the weather forecast is appropriately described as an addition value. Further, the difference value between the added value and the demand amount based on the demand curve 51 is simply expressed as a difference value as appropriate.

  For example, the display processing unit 253 causes the determination unit 52 to display the first color when the absolute value of the difference value is less than the threshold value. In the example illustrated in FIG. 12, the demand amount based on the demand curve 51 and the added value are approximately equal and the absolute value of the difference value is less than the threshold value in each time zone 12:00 to 18:00. Therefore, the display processing unit 253 displays the determination units 52g to 52r in the first color.

  On the other hand, when the absolute value of the difference value is equal to or greater than the threshold value, the display processing unit 253 displays the determination unit in the second color. The second color may be any color as long as it is different from the first color.

  In the example illustrated in FIG. 13, in the time zone 15:30 to 18:00, the added value is smaller than the demand amount based on the demand curve 51, and the absolute value of the difference value is equal to or greater than the threshold value. For this reason, the display processing unit 253 displays the determination units 52n to 52r in the second color. In addition, since the absolute value of the difference value is less than the threshold value in the time zone 12: 0 to 15:30, the display processing unit 253 displays the determination units 52g to 52r in the first color.

  In the example illustrated in FIG. 14, the added value is smaller than the demand amount based on the demand curve 51 in the time zone 14:30 to 16:00, 17: 0 to 18:00, and the absolute value of the difference value is equal to or greater than the threshold value. It becomes. For this reason, the display processing unit 253 displays the determination units 52l, 52m, 52n, 52q, and 52r in the second color. Since the absolute value of the difference value is less than the threshold value in the time zones 12: 0 to 14:30 and 16: 0 to 17:00, the display processing unit 253 determines that the determination units 52f to 52k, 52o, and 52p are the first ones. 1 color is displayed.

  As shown in FIGS. 13 and 14, the user who has confirmed that the determination unit 52 is displayed in the second color operates the input unit 220 and presses the calculation execution button 53. When the calculation execution button 53 is pressed, the display processing unit 253 requests the procurement optimization processing unit 251 to calculate the procurement plan, and requests the operation plan optimization processing unit 252 to calculate the operation plan.

  Upon receipt of the calculation request, the procurement optimization processing unit 251 and the operation plan optimization processing unit 252 execute optimization calculation of the procurement plan and the operation plan again. The display processing unit 253 acquires the calculation results from the procurement optimization processing unit 251 and the operation plan optimization processing unit 252. The display processing unit 253 calculates a difference value between the value obtained by adding the power generation amount based on the operation plan and the power generation amount based on the weather prediction and the demand amount based on the demand curve 51, and causes the determination unit 52 to display the calculation result. The display processing unit 253 displays the determination unit 52 in the first color or the second color based on the difference value.

  Next, a processing procedure of the operation plan creation apparatus 200 according to the present embodiment will be described. FIG. 15 is a flowchart illustrating a processing procedure of the operation plan creation device according to the present embodiment. As shown in FIG. 15, the procurement optimization processing unit 251 and the operation plan optimization processing unit 252 calculate a procurement plan and an operation plan (step S101).

  The display processing unit 253 of the operation plan creation apparatus 200 displays the demand amount, the power generation amount based on the operation plan, and the power generation amount based on the weather prediction (step S102). In step S102, the display processing unit 253 displays the determination unit 52 in the first color or the second color according to whether the difference value is equal to or greater than the threshold value.

  The display processing unit 253 determines whether or not the calculation execution button 53 has been pressed (step S103). If the calculation execution button 53 has not been pressed (No at Step S103), the display processing unit 253 proceeds to Step S102.

  On the other hand, when the calculation execution button 53 is pressed (Yes in step S103), the display processing unit 253 outputs a calculation request for an operation plan to the procurement optimization processing unit 251 and the operation plan optimization processing unit 252 ( Step S104).

  The procurement optimization processing unit 251 and the operation plan optimization processing unit 252 update the procurement plan and the operation plan (step S105). The display processing unit 253 determines and displays the update of the procurement plan and the operation plan (step S106), and proceeds to step S103.

  Next, a processing procedure of processing for calculating a procurement plan and an operation plan shown in step S101 of FIG. 15 will be described. The process for updating the procurement plan and the operation plan shown in step S105 in FIG. 15 also corresponds to the process procedure shown in FIG.

  FIG. 16 is a diagram illustrating a flowchart of processing for calculating a procurement plan and an operation plan. The procurement optimization processing unit 251 of the operation plan creation apparatus 200 determines whether or not it is the first process (step S201).

  In the case of the first process (step S201, Yes), the procurement optimization processing unit 251 can supply the generator 10 from the number of controllable generators 10 and the value of the maximum generated power for each generator. The maximum power is calculated (step S202), and the process proceeds to step S204.

  If it is not the first process (step S201, No), the procurement optimization processing unit 251 calculates the power supplied by the generator 10 based on the operation plan (step S203), and proceeds to step S204.

  The procurement optimization processing unit 251 executes a procurement plan planning process (step S204). In step S <b> 204, the procurement optimization processing unit 251 identifies a value obtained by subtracting the power supply B that can be supplied from the predicted value A of the demand power as the procurement power amount. The suppliable power B is a value obtained by multiplying the ratio C with the predicted value A. The procurement optimization processing unit 251 creates a procurement plan by calculating a combination satisfying the procurement power amount every 30 minutes based on the dynamic programming method.

  The operation plan optimization processing unit 252 executes an operation plan planning process (step S205). In step S205, the operation plan optimization processing unit 252 specifies a value obtained by subtracting the total amount D of procurement power from the predicted value A of demand power as the supply power amount. The operation plan optimization processing unit 252 creates an operation plan by calculating a combination satisfying the supplied power every 30 minutes based on the local search method.

  The control unit 250 determines whether or not the total supply amount of the power purchased according to the procurement plan and the power based on the operation plan has converged (step S206). When the total supply amount has not converged (No at Step S206), the control unit 250 proceeds to Step S201. On the other hand, if the total supply amount has converged (step S206, Yes), the control unit 250 ends the operation plan optimization calculation.

  Next, effects of the operation plan creation device 200 according to the present embodiment will be described. The operation plan creation device 200 causes the determination unit to visually display a time zone in which the amount of power obtained by adding the amount of power generation based on the operation plan and the amount of power generation based on the weather prediction is different from the predicted demand power. For this reason, it is possible to detect a sign that the balance between power demand and supply is lost earlier and feed it back to the operation plan.

  The operation plan creation apparatus 200 displays the determination unit 52 in association with each time period, and displays the determination unit 52 for the time period in which the absolute value of the difference value is less than the threshold value in the first color. Moreover, since the operation plan preparation apparatus 200 displays the determination part 52 of the time slot | zone whose absolute value of a difference value is more than a threshold value with a 2nd color, it is easy to discriminate | determine the time slot | zone where the balance of supply and supply collapses. Can do.

  The operation plan creation apparatus 200 displays a demand curve based on the demand prediction data 241 and corrects the demand curve based on the demand actual data. Then, the operation plan creation device 200 displays the determination unit 52 in the first color or the second color based on the corrected demand curve and the added value. For this reason, it is possible to easily determine the time zone in which the balance between the demand and the supply collapses in response to the actual demand that changes every moment.

  The operation plan creation device 200 corrects the power generation amount based on the weather forecast based on the power generation result data 248. Then, the operation plan creation device 200 displays the determination unit 52 in the first color or the second color based on the corrected demand curve and the added value. For this reason, it is possible to easily determine a time zone in which the balance between supply and demand is lost in response to changes in weather.

  Next, an example of a computer that executes an operation plan creation program that realizes the same function as the operation plan creation device 200 shown in the above embodiment will be described. FIG. 17 is a diagram illustrating an example of a computer that executes a display program.

  As illustrated in FIG. 17, the computer 300 includes a CPU 301 that executes various arithmetic processes, an input device 302 that receives input of data from a user, and a display 303. The computer 300 also includes a reading device 304 that reads a program or the like from a storage medium, and an interface device 305 that exchanges data with other computers via a network. The computer 300 also includes a RAM 306 that temporarily stores various types of information and a hard disk device 307. The devices 301 to 307 are connected to the bus 308.

  The hard disk device 307 has a display processing program 307a. The CPU 301 reads each program 307 a and develops it in the RAM 306. The display processing program 307a functions as a display processing process 306a. For example, the display processing process 306 a corresponds to the cover processing unit 253.

  Note that the display processing program 307a is not necessarily stored in the hard disk device 307 from the beginning. For example, each program is stored in a “portable physical medium” such as a flexible disk (FD), a CD-ROM, a DVD disk, a magneto-optical disk, and an IC card inserted into the computer 300. Then, the computer 300 may read and execute the display processing program 307a from these.

  The following supplementary notes are further disclosed with respect to the embodiments including the above examples.

(Supplementary note 1)
Calculate the demand for power, the first power generation based on the generator operation plan, and the second power generation based on weather forecasts,
A determination process based on a difference value between the addition value obtained by adding the first power generation amount and the second power generation amount and the demand amount;
The calculation result of the demand amount, the first power generation amount, and the second power generation amount, and the execution result of the determination process are displayed in association with a time axis,
After displaying the execution result and the calculation result of the determination process, when receiving an operation plan change request, execute the operation plan change process of the generator,
An operation plan support program characterized in that a first power generation amount based on the changed operation plan is calculated, and the display is updated.

(Supplementary Note 2) The determination process is executed in association with each time zone, and an absolute value of a difference value between the first power generation amount and the second power generation amount and the power demand amount. The determination corresponding to the time zone in which the difference is less than the threshold value is displayed in the first color, and the determination corresponding to the time zone in which the absolute value of the difference is equal to or greater than the threshold value is displayed in the second color. The operation plan support program according to 1.

(Additional remark 3) The said determination process displays the calculation result of the demand amount of electric power based on prediction, the said 1st electric power generation amount, and the said 2nd electric power generation amount, Based on the actual value of the electric power demand amount The power demand amount based on the prediction is corrected, and a difference value between the added value obtained by adding the first power generation amount and the second power generation amount and the corrected demand amount is calculated. The operation plan support program according to 1 or 2.

(Additional remark 4) The said determination process is the addition which correct | amended the said 2nd power generation amount based on the actual value of the power generation amount based on a weather, and added the said 1st power generation amount and the corrected 2nd power generation amount The operation plan support program according to appendix 3, wherein a difference value between the value and the corrected demand is calculated.

(Supplementary Note 5) An operation plan support method executed by a computer,
Calculate the demand for power, the first power generation based on the generator operation plan, and the second power generation based on weather forecasts,
A determination process based on a difference value between the addition value obtained by adding the first power generation amount and the second power generation amount and the demand amount;
The calculation result of the demand amount, the first power generation amount, and the second power generation amount, and the execution result of the determination process are displayed in association with a time axis,
After displaying the execution result and the calculation result of the determination process, when receiving an operation plan change request, execute the operation plan change process of the generator,
An operation plan support method, comprising: calculating a first power generation amount based on the changed operation plan, and updating the display.

(Supplementary Note 6) The determination process is executed in association with each time period, and an absolute value of a difference value between the first power generation amount and the second power generation amount and the power demand amount The determination corresponding to the time zone in which the difference is less than the threshold value is displayed in the first color, and the determination corresponding to the time zone in which the absolute value of the difference is equal to or greater than the threshold value is displayed in the second color. 5. The operation plan support method according to 5.

(Additional remark 7) The said determination process displays the calculation result of the demand amount of electric power based on prediction, the said 1st electric power generation amount, and the said 2nd electric power generation amount, Based on the actual value of the electric power demand amount The power demand amount based on the prediction is corrected, and a difference value between the added value obtained by adding the first power generation amount and the second power generation amount and the corrected demand amount is calculated. 5. The operation plan support method according to 5 or 6.

(Additional remark 8) The said determination process is the addition which correct | amended the said 2nd power generation amount based on the actual value of the power generation amount based on a weather, and added the said 1st power generation amount and the corrected 2nd power generation amount The operation plan support method according to appendix 7, wherein a difference value between the value and the corrected demand is calculated.

(Supplementary note 9) The first power generation amount and the second power generation amount are calculated by calculating the power demand amount, the first power generation amount based on the generator operation plan, and the second power generation amount based on the weather forecast. And a determination result based on a difference value between the added value and the demand amount, a calculation result of the demand amount, the first power generation amount, and the second power generation amount, and the determination process. When the operation plan change request is received after displaying the execution result and the calculation result of the determination process in association with the time axis, the change of the operation plan of the generator is performed. An operation plan support apparatus comprising: a display processing unit that executes and calculates a first power generation amount based on the changed operation plan, and updates the display.

(Supplementary Note 10) The display processing unit executes the determination process in association with each time zone, and adds the first power generation amount and the second power generation amount, and the power demand amount. The determination corresponding to the time zone in which the absolute value of the difference value is less than the threshold is displayed in the first color, and the determination corresponding to the time zone in which the absolute value of the difference is greater than or equal to the threshold is displayed in the second color. The operation plan support apparatus according to Supplementary Note 9, wherein

(Additional remark 11) The said display process part displays the calculation result of the demand amount of electric power based on prediction, the said 1st electric power generation amount, and the said 2nd electric power generation amount as the said determination process, The electric power demand amount Based on the actual value, the power demand amount based on the prediction is corrected, and a difference value between the added value obtained by adding the first power generation amount and the second power generation amount and the corrected demand amount is calculated. The operation plan support apparatus according to appendix 9 or 10, characterized in that.

(Additional remark 12) The said display process part correct | amends the said 2nd electric power generation amount based on the actual value of the electric power generation amount based on a weather as said determination process, The said 1st electric power generation amount and the corrected 2nd The operation plan support apparatus according to appendix 11, wherein a difference value between the added value obtained by adding the power generation amount and the corrected demand amount is calculated.

10a, 10b, 10c Generator 11a, 11b, 11c Solar generator 12a, 12b, 12c Wind generator 13a, 13b, 13c Geothermal generator 14a, 14b, 14c Hydroelectric generator 15a, 15b, 15c Biomass generator 20a, 20b, 20c Electric power company 30 High-voltage customer 40 Low-voltage customer 50a, 50b, 50c Power supplier 100 PPS
200 Operation plan creation device

Claims (6)

On the computer,
Calculate the demand for power, the first power generation based on the generator operation plan, and the second power generation based on weather forecasts,
A determination process based on a difference value between the addition value obtained by adding the first power generation amount and the second power generation amount and the demand amount;
The calculation result of the demand amount, the first power generation amount, and the second power generation amount, and the execution result of the determination process are displayed in association with a time axis,
After displaying the execution result and the calculation result of the determination process, when receiving an operation plan change request, execute the operation plan change process of the generator,
An operation plan support program characterized in that a first power generation amount based on the changed operation plan is calculated, and the display is updated.   The determination process is executed in association with each time period, and an absolute value of a difference value between the added value of the first power generation amount and the second power generation amount and the demand amount of the power is less than a threshold value. The determination corresponding to a certain time zone is displayed in a first color, and the determination corresponding to a time zone in which the absolute value of the difference is greater than or equal to a threshold value is displayed in a second color. Driving plan support program.   The determination process displays a calculation result of the demand amount of power based on prediction, the first power generation amount, and the second power generation amount, and based on the actual value of the power demand amount, 3. The difference value between the corrected demand amount and an added value obtained by correcting the demand amount of electric power based on the first power generation amount and the second power generation amount is calculated. Operation planning support program described in 1.   The determination process corrects the second power generation amount based on the actual value of the power generation amount based on the weather, and adds an addition value obtained by adding the first power generation amount and the corrected second power generation amount. The operation plan support program according to claim 3, wherein a difference value with respect to the demand amount is calculated. An operation plan support method executed by a computer,
Calculate the demand for power, the first power generation based on the generator operation plan, and the second power generation based on weather forecasts,
A determination process based on a difference value between the addition value obtained by adding the first power generation amount and the second power generation amount and the demand amount;
The calculation result of the demand amount, the first power generation amount, and the second power generation amount, and the execution result of the determination process are displayed in association with a time axis,
After displaying the execution result and the calculation result of the determination process, when receiving an operation plan change request, execute the operation plan change process of the generator,
An operation plan support method, comprising: calculating a first power generation amount based on the changed operation plan, and updating the display. The amount of power demand, the first power generation amount based on the generator operation plan, and the second power generation amount based on weather forecast are calculated, and the first power generation amount and the second power generation amount are added. A determination process based on a difference value between the value and the demand amount is executed, and a calculation result of the demand amount, the first power generation amount, and the second power generation amount, and an execution result of the determination process are obtained. When a request for changing the operation plan is received after displaying the execution result and calculation result of the determination process in association with the time axis, the operation plan change process of the generator is executed and changed. An operation plan support apparatus comprising: a display processing unit that calculates a first power generation amount based on the operation plan and updates the display.

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