JP5886407B1 - Prediction device - Google Patents

Abstract

A prediction device for predicting the amount of power generated by a power generation device using natural energy is provided. Based on measured values of natural energy for a first time zone and predicted values of natural energy at the plurality of points acquired from measuring devices installed at a plurality of points around the power generation device. An estimation unit that calculates a value related to an average value of prediction errors of predicted values of natural energy at the plurality of points, and estimates the value as a prediction error of predicted values of natural energy at the installation position of the power generation device; Based on the prediction error estimated by the estimation unit, the correction unit for correcting the predicted value of natural energy for the second time zone after the first time zone at the installation position of the power generation device, and the correction unit corrected Based on the predicted value of natural energy for the second time zone and the power generation characteristics of the power generation device indicating the relationship between the natural energy and the power generation amount, the generation of the power generation device for the second time zone is determined. It comprises a power generation amount prediction unit for predicting an amount, a. [Selection] Figure 2

Description

  The present invention relates to a prediction device that predicts the amount of power generated by a power generation device using natural energy.

  In recent years, the introduction of power generation systems using natural energy has progressed, and solar power generators and wind power generators have been constructed in various places and have started operation. Solar power generators and wind power generators are clean energy generators, but the amount of power generation varies over time depending on the weather conditions at the installation site. It is required to accurately predict the amount of power generated. In particular, it is necessary to perform load frequency control (LFC) and voltage adjustment in each power system in order to keep frequency fluctuations and voltage fluctuations generated according to these fluctuations in power generation within an allowable range. Although it may be a prediction of a short time ahead (for example, one hour ahead), it is required to accurately predict fluctuations in the amount of power generation. Against this background, various systems and methods for predicting the amount of power generated by solar power generation or wind power generation have been proposed (see, for example, Patent Document 1).

JP 2009-167847 A

  However, Patent Document 1 merely discloses means for avoiding the risk of frequency fluctuations due to fluctuations in the amount of power generated by wind power generation, and what improves the prediction accuracy of the amount of power generated by wind power generation. is not.

  On the other hand, in recent years, weather information forecasting technology has improved. For example, the Japan Meteorological Agency calculates each local area model (Local Forecast Model: LFM) that forecasts weather by dividing each area into a mesh with a narrow area of 2km square as a unit section. Weather forecast information (Grid Point Value: GPV) is provided. When using weather forecast information calculated with such a local model, it is necessary to accurately predict the amount of power generated at the installation position of a solar power generation device or wind power generation device as compared to prediction in units of several tens of kilometers. Is possible. However, as an adverse effect of weather prediction using a local model, there is a high possibility that a position shift will occur from the corresponding prediction point. As a result, there is a possibility that a large deviation occurs in the value, and as a result, a large deviation also occurs in the prediction of the power generation amount.

  Then, this invention solves the said problem and aims at providing the prediction apparatus which makes it possible to estimate the electric power generation amount of a solar power generation device or a wind power generator with high precision.

  The main present invention for solving the above-mentioned problems is a prediction device for predicting the amount of power generated by a power generation device using natural energy, and is installed at a plurality of points around the power generation device and used for power generation. Based on the measured value of the natural energy for the first time zone and the predicted value of the natural energy for the first time zone at the plurality of points obtained from the measuring device that measures An estimation unit that calculates a value related to an average value of a prediction error of a predicted value of natural energy at a point of the current value and estimates the value as a prediction error of a predicted value of natural energy at the installation position of the power generation device; The first time zone at the installation position of the power generation device based on the prediction error of the predicted value of natural energy at the installation position of the power generation device estimated by A correction unit that corrects a predicted value of natural energy for the second time zone after the correction, a predicted value of natural energy for the second time zone corrected by the correction unit, and a relationship between the natural energy and the power generation amount And a power generation amount prediction unit that predicts the power generation amount of the power generation device for the second time zone based on the power generation characteristics of the power generation device. Other features of the present invention will become apparent from the accompanying drawings and the description of this specification.

  According to the prediction device according to the present invention, it is possible to accurately predict the amount of power generated by a solar power generation device or a wind power generation device.

It is a figure explaining the installation position of the electric power generating apparatus in 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure explaining the installation position of the electric power generating apparatus in 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the structure of the prediction apparatus in 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the data structure of the prediction apparatus in 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the data structure of the prediction apparatus in 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the data structure of the prediction apparatus in 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the operation | movement flow of the prediction apparatus in 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the structure of the prediction apparatus in 2nd Embodiment of this invention. It is a figure which shows the structure of the electric power grid | system in 2nd Embodiment of this invention.

  At least the following matters will become apparent from the description of this specification and the accompanying drawings.

<First Embodiment>
The prediction apparatus according to the present embodiment is calculated by applying a local model (LFM) among numerical prediction models in order to improve the prediction accuracy of the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus linked to the power system. Meteorological forecast data (hereinafter also referred to as “predicted value of solar radiation”) and measurement data of solar radiation measuring devices installed at multiple locations around the solar power generation device (hereinafter referred to as “actual value of solar radiation”) Also used).

  Specifically, the numerical forecast model of weather forecast data calculates the rate of change over time using various weather data in the immediately preceding time zone (for example, immediately before 1 hour) as boundary conditions, Since weather forecast data for a time zone (for example, one hour later) is calculated, the prediction error in the immediately preceding time zone tends to be reflected as a prediction error in the predicted value in the next time zone as it is. Therefore, it is only necessary to actually measure the prediction error of the amount of solar radiation for the immediately preceding time zone at the installation position of the photovoltaic power generation device and reflect it in the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation in the next time zone. In many cases, the number of power generation devices installed increases, and the solar radiation amount measurement device is not installed at the installation position of the solar power generation device. Therefore, in view of the difficulty of actually measuring the prediction error for all points, the prediction device according to the present embodiment has an actual measurement value of the solar radiation amount of a plurality of solar radiation amount measurement devices installed around the solar power generation device, and Based on the predicted values of the amount of solar radiation at these points, the prediction error at the installation position of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus is estimated (details will be described later).

=== About the installation position of the generator set ===
With reference to FIG. 1, FIG. 2, the relationship between the installation position of the solar power generation device which concerns on this embodiment, and the mesh estimated by weather prediction data is demonstrated.

  FIG. 1 shows a map Z of the Chugoku region in the Japanese archipelago. As shown in FIG. 1, the photovoltaic power generation apparatuses G <b> 1 to G <b> 5 according to the present embodiment are scattered in various places and grid-connected to a commercial power system. And the solar radiation amount measuring devices T1-T10 are interspersed and installed around them.

  FIG. 2 is a diagram illustrating a mesh M of weather prediction data around the solar power generation device G1. The mesh M is an area serving as a unit section for calculating weather prediction data in the numerical forecast model. For example, an area defined by a substantially rectangular area of 2 km square is used as the unit section. Meshes M1 to M35 in FIG. 2 represent the unit sections, and numbers are assigned to the respective unit sections for explanation. And in the said area, the solar power generation device G1 is installed in the position corresponding to the mesh M18, and the solar radiation amount measuring apparatus T1-T4 is installed in each position corresponding to the meshes M6, M15, M30, and M32.

  In the present embodiment, GPV data calculated by applying a local model (LFM) among the numerical forecast models provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency is used as the weather forecast data. The GPV data is obtained by a simulation (three-dimensional variational method) based on a predetermined dynamic model using meteorological data and meteorological satellite data observed in various places as boundary conditions immediately before the prediction target (for example, one hour before). It is the calculated weather forecast data for several hours ahead. Note that the GPV data calculated by the local model is between 22.4 ° to 47.6 ° north latitude and 120 ° to 150 ° east longitude, as described above, with a substantially rectangular area of 2 km square as a unit section. As weather prediction data on the ground surface (altitude 10 m) at each mesh position, it is created up to 9 hours ahead at 1 hour intervals.

  The solar power generation device G1 is a power generation device that generates power using sunlight. The solar power generation device G1 is configured by a photoelectric conversion element, and generates sunlight by converting sunlight irradiated to the mesh M18 on which the solar power generation device G1 is installed into electric energy. The solar power generation device G1 converts the generated power into AC power having a predetermined frequency and voltage (for example, 60 Hz, 100 V) by a power conditioner, and the distribution line of the power system connected to the solar power generation device G1. Power to.

  The solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4 are devices that measure the solar radiation amount of the meshes M6, M15, M30, and M32 on which the solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4 are installed. The solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4 are constituted by, for example, thermoelectric elements, receive the solar radiation amount from all directions of the whole sky by the thermoelectric elements, and measure the electromotive force generated due to the difference from the reference temperature. Measure the amount of solar radiation (measured from the whole sky). The solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4 include a control unit configured by a CPU or the like, a storage unit configured by a non-volatile memory, a volatile memory, or the like, a communication unit configured by a communication controller, and the like. Data communication with 100 is possible. The solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4 measure the solar radiation amount by the control unit executing a predetermined program, store the measured actual solar radiation amount value in the storage unit, and at a predetermined timing, the prediction device The measurement data is transmitted to 100.

  In this embodiment, when estimating the prediction error of the predicted value of the solar radiation amount at the installation position M18 of the solar power generation device G1, since the solar radiation amount measuring device is not installed at the installation position M18, the solar radiation amount measurement around it is performed. Devices T1 to T4 are used. And in that case, in order to reflect the prediction error in each azimuth around the installation position M18 of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus G1, the installation position of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus G1 was installed at four surrounding points. The solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4 are used.

=== About the configuration of the prediction device ===
Hereinafter, an example of the configuration of the prediction device 100 according to the present embodiment will be described with reference to FIGS. 3, 4A, 4B, and 4C.

  FIG. 3 shows an example of the configuration of the prediction apparatus 100 according to this embodiment. The prediction device 100 according to the present embodiment is a device that predicts the power generation amount of the solar power generation device G1 or the like. The prediction device 100 is a computer including a control unit 110, a storage unit 120, a communication unit 130, an input unit 140, and a display unit 150.

  The control unit 110 performs data communication with the hardware configuring the storage unit 120, the communication unit 130, the input unit 140, and the display unit 150 via a bus (not shown), and controls their operations. Further, the control unit 110 has functions of an acquisition unit 111, an estimation unit 112, a correction unit 113, and a power generation amount prediction unit 114 in order to calculate a predicted value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation device G1 and the like (details will be described later) ). For example, the control unit 110 is realized by the CPU executing a computer program stored in the storage unit 120.

  The storage unit 120 includes power generation device data 121, measurement device data 122, weather prediction data 123, a computer program 124 that controls the prediction device 100, and an area (not shown) that stores intermediate data of arithmetic processing (details). Will be described later).

  The communication unit 130 performs data communication with the weather information providing apparatus 200 such as the solar radiation amount measuring apparatuses T1, T2, T3, and T4 via the communication line 300. The communication unit 130 is configured by, for example, a communication controller, and performs data communication with these devices via a LAN (communication line 300). The communication unit 130 is an interface for the prediction apparatus 100 to perform data communication with an external device, and is a device that performs data communication with the external device using an arbitrary communication method such as RS232C, USB, or NIC (Network Interface Card). A different communication method may be used depending on the external device using a plurality of communication devices. When the user of the prediction device 100 inputs data, the input unit 140 causes the storage unit 120 to store the input content. The input unit 140 is configured by a keyboard, for example. The display unit 150 displays the result of the arithmetic processing performed by the control unit 110 such as the predicted value of the power generation amount so that the user of the prediction device 100 can identify the result. The display unit 150 is configured by a liquid crystal display, for example.

  The weather information providing device 200 is a computer capable of data communication with the prediction device 100, and the weather prediction data such as the amount of solar radiation, temperature, humidity, wind speed, and pressure provided by the Japan Meteorological Agency are stored in the storage unit. . The weather information providing apparatus 200 transmits the weather prediction data to the prediction apparatus 100 in response to a request from the prediction apparatus 100.

= Data structure =
Here, with reference to FIG. 4A-FIG. 4C, the electric power generating apparatus data 121 which the memory | storage part 120 has, the measuring apparatus data 122, and the weather forecast data 123 are demonstrated.

  The power generation device data 121 includes “data indicating the installation position of the solar power generation device” and “data indicating the power generation characteristics of the solar power generation device”.

  More specifically, “data indicating the installation position of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus” includes, for example, coordinate data indicating the latitude and longitude of the position where the photovoltaic power generation apparatus G1 is installed, and the photovoltaic power generation apparatus G1 is the power system. It is the data which shows the position connected to the distribution line. The prediction device 100 sets a mesh position (for example, mesh M18) corresponding to the installation position of the solar power generation device G1 among the mesh M of the weather prediction data based on the coordinate data of the solar power generation device G1 and the like. . Further, the prediction device 100 predicts a voltage fluctuation point or the like in the power system based on data indicating a position connected to a distribution line of the power system.

Also, "data indicating the power generation characteristics of the solar power generation device", insolation at 0.1 W / m ² units (W / m ²⁾ and the power generation amount of a photovoltaic power generator G1 and (kW) is associated It is a data table. FIG. 4A shows the data table in a graph. In addition, the horizontal axis of FIG. 4A represents the total solar radiation amount (W / m ² ), and the vertical axis represents the power generation amount (kW) of the solar power generation device G1. The data indicating the power generation characteristics is, for example, data determined in advance by design values of the solar power generation device. And the prediction apparatus 100 converts into the predicted value of the electric power generation amount of the solar power generation device G1 from the predicted value of solar radiation amount based on the data which show the said electric power generation characteristic. The power generation amount of the solar power generation device represents the output power (W) of the solar power generation device G1 or the product (W · s) of the output power and the power generation time.

  The measurement device data 122 includes “data indicating the installation position of the solar radiation measurement device” and “measurement data acquired from the solar radiation measurement device”.

  More specifically, “data indicating the installation position of the solar radiation amount measuring device” is, for example, coordinate data indicating the latitude and longitude of the position where the solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4 are installed. Based on the data, the prediction device 100 sets mesh positions (for example, meshes M6, M15, M30, and M32) corresponding to the installation positions of the solar radiation amount measurement devices T1 to T4, etc., among the meshes of the weather prediction data. .

Further, the “measurement data acquired from the solar radiation amount measuring device” is stored in association with, for example, the actual measurement value (W / m ² ) of the solar radiation amount measured in each of the solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4. This is a data table. FIG. 4B shows an example of the measurement data of the measurement device data 122. The measurement data is stored in association with the measured date and time at 10 minute intervals, for example, the average solar radiation amount for 10 minutes of the actual values of the total solar radiation amount measured by the solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4. The storage unit 120 updates (accumulates) the data table every time the measurement data of the solar radiation amount is acquired from the solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4. The prediction device 100 determines the amount of solar radiation at the point based on the difference between the measured value of the amount of solar radiation in the time zone immediately before the measurement data and the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation for the corresponding time zone in the weather forecast data 123. The prediction error of the predicted value is calculated and reflected in the predicted value of the solar radiation amount in the next time zone at the installation position of the solar power generation device G1. In addition, when the solar radiation amount measurement data of the solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4 are stored in the central management device, the solar radiation amount measurement data may be acquired via the central management device.

  The weather forecast data 123 includes “data indicating a predicted value of solar radiation amount” and “data indicating a mesh position” acquired from the weather information providing apparatus 200.

More specifically, the “data indicating the predicted value of solar radiation amount” is, for example, a data table that stores the predicted value of solar radiation amount for each mesh position in association with the prediction target time. FIG. 4C shows an example of the configuration of the weather forecast data 123. In FIG. 4C, the predicted value (W / M ² ) of the total solar radiation amount is stored in association with the prediction date and time at intervals of 1 hour for each mesh position (M1, M2,...). In addition, the data indicating the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation includes the data indicating the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation in the next time zone to be predicted (for example, one hour later), and the previous time zone that has already passed at the present time. Data including the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation for (for example, one hour ago) is also included.

  The “data indicating the mesh position” is coordinate data of each mesh position of the weather forecast data 123. The prediction device 100 associates the installation position of the solar power generation device G1 and the installation positions of the solar radiation amount measurement devices T1 to T4 with the mesh positions of the weather prediction data 123 based on the data. Then, the prediction device 100 predicts the amount of solar radiation based on the difference between the actually measured value of the solar radiation amount of the measurement data in the immediately preceding time zone and the predicted value of the solar radiation amount of the weather forecast data 123 for the corresponding time zone. The prediction error of the value is calculated and reflected in the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation at the installation position of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus G1 in the next time zone.

  In addition, since the memory | storage part 120 performs data communication with each solar radiation amount measuring device T1-T4 and the weather information provision apparatus 200 via the communication line 300, it also has the data regarding the communication address of these apparatuses.

= Function configuration =
Here, functions of the acquisition unit 111, the estimation unit 112, the correction unit 113, and the power generation amount prediction unit 114 included in the control unit 110 will be described.

  The acquisition unit 111 performs data communication with the solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4 and the weather information providing device 200 at a predetermined timing, and acquires measurement data (actually measured solar radiation amount) from the solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4. In addition, it is a function for acquiring weather forecast data (predicted value of solar radiation amount) from the weather information providing apparatus 200.

  More specifically, for example, the acquisition unit 111 performs data communication with the solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4 at intervals of 10 minutes, acquires measurement data (actually measured solar radiation amount), and stores the measurement device in the storage unit 120. Store as data 122. Further, the acquisition unit 111 performs data communication with the weather information providing apparatus 200 at intervals of, for example, 10 minutes, acquires weather prediction data (predicted value of solar radiation amount), and stores it as the weather prediction data 123 in the storage unit 120. To do. Note that the timing at which the acquisition unit 111 acquires the measurement data is arbitrary as long as the data for the time zone immediately before the time point estimated by the estimation unit 112 can be acquired. Similarly, the timing at which the acquisition unit 111 acquires the weather prediction data is arbitrary as long as the correction unit 113 can acquire data about the next time zone (time zone to be predicted).

  The estimation unit 112 is an actual measurement value for the immediately preceding time zone (first time zone) acquired from a measurement device that measures the solar radiation amount installed at a plurality of locations around the installation position of the photovoltaic power generation device. And a function for estimating the prediction error of the predicted value of the solar radiation amount at the installation position of the photovoltaic power generation device based on the predicted value for the time zone immediately before (the first time zone) at those points. is there.

  As described above, the predicted value of solar radiation calculated using the numerical forecast model is distorted between the observation points of the meteorological data during the simulation, resulting in a displacement from the corresponding predicted point. There may be a prediction error. In the numerical prediction model, various meteorological data in the immediately preceding time zone (for example, one hour ago) are used as boundary conditions to calculate their temporal change rate, and the subsequent time zone (for example, one hour later). Therefore, the prediction error in the immediately preceding time zone tends to be reflected as the prediction error in the predicted value in the next time zone as it is. Therefore, the estimation unit 112 uses the measurement device that measures the solar radiation amount installed at a plurality of locations around the installation position of the solar power generation device, and immediately before the installation position of the solar power generation device. The prediction error of the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation in the time zone is calculated.

  More specifically, when the solar radiation amount measuring device is installed at the same position as the installation position of the solar power generation device, the estimating unit 112 calculates the solar radiation amount for the time zone immediately before acquired from the solar radiation amount measuring device. Is estimated from the difference between the measured value of the solar radiation amount and the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation for the immediately preceding time zone at the installation position of the solar power generation device . And when the solar radiation amount measuring apparatus is not installed in the same position as the installation position of the solar power generation device, the estimation unit 112 is installed at a plurality of points around the solar power generation device and measures the solar radiation amount. The amount of solar radiation at the plurality of points based on the measured value of the amount of solar radiation for the immediately preceding time zone obtained from the measuring device and the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation for the immediately preceding time zone at the plurality of points. A value related to the average value of the prediction errors of the predicted values is calculated, and the value is estimated as a prediction error of the predicted value of the solar radiation amount at the installation position of the solar power generation device. In addition, whether the solar radiation amount measuring device is installed at the same position as the installation position of the solar power generation device is whether the solar radiation amount measuring device is installed at the mesh position corresponding to the installation position of the solar power generation device. It is judged by. Similarly, the prediction error of the predicted value of the solar radiation amount is calculated based on the difference between the actually measured value at the installation position of the solar radiation amount measuring device and the predicted value at the mesh position corresponding to the installation position of the solar radiation amount measuring device. Is done.

Since the solar radiation amount measuring device is not installed at the installation position (mesh M18) of the solar power generation device G1 according to the present embodiment, the solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4 installed around the solar power generation device G1 are installed. Using, the prediction error of the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation in the installation position of the solar power generation device G1 is calculated. Specifically, the estimation unit 112, a measured value P _i of the insolation time zone immediately before being measured in each solar radiation measuring device T1-T4, at the installation position of the respective solar radiation measuring device T1-T4, The prediction error a _i at the installation position of each of the solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4 is calculated using Equation 1 from the predicted value Q _i of the solar radiation amount in the immediately preceding time zone.

（但し、ａ_iはメッシュＭ_i（日射量計測装置Ｔ１〜Ｔ４の設置位置）における日射量の予測誤差（晴天指数の予測誤差）、Ｑ_iはメッシュＭ_iにおける全天日射量の予測値、Ｐ_iはメッシュＭ_iにおける全天日射量の実測値を表す。）
ここで、直前の時間帯とは、予測を行う時点の直前の一定の時間、又は、予測を行う時点の直前の時点を意味する。即ち、予測装置１００が参照する、直前の時間帯の日射量の実測値Ｐ_i及び日射量の予測値Ｑ_iは、予測を行う時点の直前の一定の時間（例えば、直前の１時間）の平均値であってもよいし、時間との積分値であってもよい。あるいは、予測を行う時点の直前の一時点（例えば、１時間前）における値であってもよい。又、日射量の実測値Ｐ_iと日射量の予測値Ｑ_iは、予測誤差を算出することができれば、完全に同時刻に関するデータでなくともよく、例えば、日射量の実測値として１０分前に取得した実測値を用い、日射量の予測値として直前１時間の平均値を用いてもよい。

(Where a _i is the prediction error of the solar radiation amount (prediction error of the clear sky index) in the mesh M _i (installation position of the solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4), Q _i is the predicted value of the total solar radiation amount in the mesh M _i , P _i represents the actual value of the total solar radiation in the mesh M _i .)
Here, the time zone immediately before means a certain time immediately before the time point when the prediction is performed or a time point immediately before the time point when the prediction is performed. That is, the measured value P _i of the solar radiation amount and the predicted value Q _i of the solar radiation amount in the immediately preceding time zone referred to by the prediction device 100 are a certain time (for example, the immediately preceding 1 hour) immediately before the time when the prediction is performed. It may be an average value or an integral value with time. Alternatively, it may be a value at one time point (for example, one hour before) immediately before the time point at which prediction is performed. Further, the actual measurement value P _i of the solar radiation amount and the predicted value Q _i of the solar radiation amount do not have to be completely related to the same time as long as the prediction error can be calculated. The average value of the previous hour may be used as the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation using the actually measured value obtained in step S2.

In order to eliminate the influence of the season and the like, Equation 1 uses the estimation error a _i of the solar radiation amount, the total solar radiation amount of the actual measurement value P _i of the solar radiation amount, and the predicted value Q _i of the solar radiation amount as the atmospheric solar radiation amount (Earth Is the amount of solar radiant energy per unit time that the unit area is perpendicular to the sun's rays at the upper end of the Earth's atmosphere, and is the specified value determined by the latitude and longitude information of the target position and the date and time. It is expressed by the error of the clear sky index divided by).

And the estimation part 112 uses the formula 2, for example, and uses the installation position of the solar power generation device G1 and each of the solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T1 as the prediction error a _i at the installation position of the solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4. By calculating a weighted average based on the distance d _i of the installation position of T4, an estimated value a ₁₈ ′ of the solar radiation amount prediction error at the installation position (M18) of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus G1 is calculated. That is, the estimation unit 112 predicts the predicted value of the solar radiation amount at the installation position (M18) of the solar power generation device G1 using the value related to the average value of the prediction error of the solar radiation amount measured around the solar power generation device G1. Estimate error.

（但し、ａ₁₈’はメッシュＭ１８（太陽光発電装置Ｇ１の設置位置）における日射量の予測誤差の推定値、ａ_iはメッシュＭ_i（日射量計測装置Ｔ１〜Ｔ４の設置位置）における日射量の予測誤差、ｄ_iは太陽光発電装置Ｇ１の設置位置と各日射量計測装置Ｔ１〜Ｔ４の設置位置の距離を表す。）
本実施形態では、当該各日射量計測装置Ｔ１〜Ｔ４の設置位置における予測誤差ａ_iを、太陽光発電装置Ｇ１の設置位置と各日射量計測装置Ｔ１〜Ｔ４の設置位置の距離ｄ_iに基づいて加重平均することにより、当該各日射量計測装置Ｔ１〜Ｔ４の設置位置における予測誤差ａ_iが、これらの距離ｄ_iに応じた度合で、太陽光発電装置Ｇ１の設置位置における日射量の予測値の予測誤差に反映されるようにしている。尚、太陽光発電装置Ｇ１の設置位置と各日射量計測装置Ｔ１〜Ｔ４の設置位置の距離ｄ_iは、夫々の設置位置の緯度経度を示す座標データに基づいて算出された距離、又は、夫々の設置位置の対応するメッシュ位置に基づいて算出された距離である。

(However, a ₁₈ ′ is the estimated value of the prediction error of the solar radiation amount in the mesh M18 (installation position of the solar power generation device G1), and a _i is the solar radiation amount in the mesh M _i (installation position of the solar radiation amount measurement devices T1 to T4). Prediction error, d _i represents the distance between the installation position of the solar power generation device G1 and the installation positions of the solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4.)
In the present embodiment, the prediction error a _i at the installation positions of the solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4 is based on the distance d _i between the installation position of the solar power generation device G1 and the solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4. By calculating the weighted average, the prediction error a _{i at} the installation position of each of the solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4 is predicted according to the distance d _i to predict the solar radiation amount at the installation position of the solar power generation device G1. It is reflected in the prediction error of the value. The distance d _i between the installation position of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus G1 and the installation positions of the solar radiation amount measuring apparatuses T1 to T4 is a distance calculated based on coordinate data indicating the latitude and longitude of each installation position, or respectively. Is a distance calculated based on the mesh position corresponding to the installation position.

  In addition, the value regarding the average value of the measured value of the solar radiation amount of several points and the prediction error of the predicted value does not necessarily need to be calculated by the weighted average. For example, the solar radiation amount measuring device that simply refers to these values. It may be a value averaged by the number of. Moreover, you may calculate an average value by suitable weighting according to the topography of the installation position of a solar power generation device or a solar radiation amount measuring apparatus.

  Based on the prediction error of the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation at the installation position of the solar power generation device G1 estimated by the estimation unit 112, the correction unit 113 performs the next time zone (first time at the installation position of the solar power generation device G1). This is a function for correcting the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation in the second time zone later).

Specifically, the correcting unit 113 reflects the prediction error a ₁₈ ′ of the predicted value of the solar radiation amount calculated by the estimating unit 112 in the predicted value Q ₁₈ of the solar radiation amount at the installation position of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus G1. For example, the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation in the next time zone is corrected using Equation 3 below.

（但し、ａ₁₈’はメッシュＭ１８（太陽光発電装置Ｇ１の設置位置）における日射量の予測誤差の推定値、Ｑ₁₈はメッシュＭ１８における日射量の予測値、Ｑ₁₈’は補正後の日射量の予測値を表す。）
ここで、補正部１１３が、予測対象とする次の時間帯とは、予測を行う時点の直後の一定の時間帯、又は、予測を行う時点の直後の時点を意味する。即ち、予測装置１００が参照する、次の時間帯の日射量の予測値Ｑは、予測を行う時点の直後の一定の時間（例えば、直後の１時間）の平均値であってもよいし、予測を行う時点の直後の一時点（例えば、１時間後）における値であってもよい。又、気象予測データ１２３として、数時間先までのデータを複数有している場合、それらのデータ全てについて補正を行ってもよい。

(However, a ₁₈ ′ is the estimated value of the prediction error of the solar radiation amount in the mesh M18 (installation position of the photovoltaic power generation device G1), Q ₁₈ is the predicted value of the solar radiation amount in the mesh M18, and Q ₁₈ ′ is the corrected solar radiation amount. Represents the predicted value.)
Here, the next time zone that the correction unit 113 uses as a prediction target means a certain time zone immediately after the time point when the prediction is performed, or a time point immediately after the time point when the prediction is performed. That is, the predicted value Q of the amount of solar radiation in the next time zone referred to by the prediction device 100 may be an average value of a certain time immediately after the time point when the prediction is performed (for example, immediately after 1 hour), It may be a value at one time point (for example, one hour later) immediately after the time point when the prediction is performed. Further, when the weather forecast data 123 includes a plurality of data up to several hours ahead, all of the data may be corrected.

  In addition, when the solar radiation amount measuring device is installed at the same position as the installation position of the solar power generation device, the correction unit 113 uses the prediction error of the predicted value of the solar radiation amount at the installation position of the solar power generation device, Using Equation 3, the predicted value of the solar radiation amount is corrected.

  The power generation amount prediction unit 114 is based on the predicted value of the solar radiation amount at the installation position of the solar power generation device corrected by the correction unit 113, and the power generation characteristics indicating the relationship between the solar radiation amount and the power generation amount of the solar power generation device, This is a function for calculating a predicted value of the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus for the next time zone.

More specifically, the power generation amount prediction unit 114 uses the data (for example, FIG. 4A) indicating the power generation characteristics of the solar power generation device G1 in the power generation device data 121, and the solar power generation device G1 corrected by the correction unit 113. The power generation amount (kW) of the solar power generation device G1 converted from the predicted value Q ₁₈ ′ of the solar radiation amount at the installation position of the solar power generation device and the predicted power generation amount (kW) of the solar power generation device G1 for the next time zone calculate.

=== About the operation of the prediction device ===
Hereinafter, an example of an operation flow of the prediction apparatus 100 will be described with reference to FIG.

  S1 to S5 in FIG. 5 represent steps that the control unit 110 of the prediction device 100 executes in order according to the computer program. Below, the aspect which estimates the electric power generation amount of the solar power generation device G1 is demonstrated. Note that the details of the function of each unit are as described above, and thus the description thereof is omitted here.

  S1 is a process in which the acquisition unit 111 acquires measurement data in the immediately preceding time zone (for example, one hour before the predicted time point) through data communication with the solar radiation amount measuring apparatuses T1 to T4. Then, the acquisition unit 111 stores the acquired measurement data (actually measured value of solar radiation) as the measurement device data 122.

  S <b> 2 is a step in which the acquisition unit 111 performs data communication with the weather information providing apparatus 200 to acquire weather prediction data for the next time zone (for example, 2 hours ahead from the time of prediction). And the acquisition part 111 memorize | stores the acquired weather prediction data (prediction value of solar radiation amount) as the weather prediction data 123. FIG.

  S3 is a process in which the estimation unit 112 estimates the prediction error of the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation at the installation position of the solar power generation device G1. In this step, since the solar radiation amount measuring device is not installed at the installation position of the solar power generation device G1, the estimation unit 112 is installed with the solar radiation amount measurement device T1 installed around the installation position of the solar power generation device G1. The prediction error of the predicted value of the solar radiation amount in the installation position of the solar power generation device G1 is estimated using the prediction error of the predicted solar radiation amount of T4.

  Specifically, the estimation unit 112 measures the amount of solar radiation and measures the amount of solar radiation for the immediately preceding time zone (for example, one hour before the predicted time) at the installation positions of the solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4. Using the predicted values of the amount of solar radiation for the immediately preceding time zone (for example, one hour before the predicted time) at the installation positions of the devices T1 to T4, the amount of solar radiation according to the above-described formulas 1 and 2 The value regarding the average value of the prediction error of the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation at the installation positions of the measuring devices T1 to T4 is calculated. And the estimation part 112 estimates the value regarding the average value of the prediction error of the predicted value of the said solar radiation amount as the prediction error of the predicted value of the solar radiation amount in the installation position of the solar power generation device G1.

  S4 is a process in which the correction unit 113 corrects the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation for the next time zone at the installation position of the solar power generation device G1. In this step, the correction unit 113 uses the prediction error of the predicted value of the solar radiation amount at the installation position of the solar power generation device G1 estimated by the estimation unit 112, and the installation position of the solar power generation device G1 according to Equation 3 described above. A value obtained by correcting the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation in the next time zone (for example, up to two hours ahead) is calculated. Note that the steps S3 and S4 are not necessarily performed in separate steps, and can be performed in one step if they are converted into a single formula based on Formulas 1 to 3 and stored in advance. it can.

  In S5, the power generation amount prediction unit 114 calculates the solar power generation device G1 in the next time zone (for example, up to two hours ahead) from the predicted value of the amount of solar radiation at the installation position of the solar power generation device G1 corrected by the correction unit 113. This is a step of calculating the amount of power generation. In this step, the power generation amount prediction unit 114 uses the power generation characteristic data of the solar power generation device G1 of the power generation device data 121 to calculate the predicted value of the solar radiation amount at the installation position of the solar power generation device G1 corrected by the correction unit 113. It converts into the electric power generation amount of the electric power generating apparatus G1.

  Through the above steps, the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus G1 for the next time zone can be predicted with high accuracy. And the predicted value of the electric power generation amount of the solar power generation device G1 of 2 hours ahead can be calculated sequentially by repeating the process of said S1-S5, for example at 1 hour intervals. In addition, since said prediction method estimates the electric power generation amount of the solar power generation device G1 in a short time ahead, the prediction of the electric power generation amount of the solar power generation device G1 in a long time ahead (for example, one day) It is effective to use a separate process. For example, in order to generate a power generation plan, the predicted amount of solar radiation before correction (predicted value of solar radiation calculated with a local model) or the predicted value of solar radiation calculated with a meso model The change of the power generation amount of the solar power generation device G1 is predicted by the above-described steps S1 to S5 two hours before the prediction target, and the fluctuation amount is set to an appropriate value ( For example, it can be used to determine whether or not to deviate from the LFC capacity prepared for maintaining at 60 Hz.

  As described above, according to the prediction device 100 according to the present embodiment, it is possible to accurately predict the power generation amount of a solar power generation device or the like, and tolerate frequency fluctuations and voltage fluctuations in the power system due to fluctuations in the power generation amount. In order to be within range, it is possible to deal with surely or early.

Second Embodiment
The prediction device 100 ′ according to this embodiment is a first embodiment in that the target voltage of the voltage adjustment transformer is controlled based on the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation device calculated by the power generation amount prediction unit 114 described above. Is different. In addition, description is abbreviate | omitted about the structure which is common in 1st Embodiment.

  FIG. 6 shows an example of the configuration of the prediction apparatus 100 ′ according to the present embodiment. FIG. 7 shows an example of a power system according to the present embodiment. The electric power system which concerns on this embodiment becomes a structure which transmits to downstream consumers R1-R4 via the high voltage bus LL and the high voltage distribution line L1 from the system voltage adjustment transformer 500 of a connection substation. Yes. In the power system according to the present embodiment, the solar power generation device G1 is connected to the high-voltage distribution line L1, and the voltage variation of the high-voltage distribution line L1 due to the variation in the power generation amount of the solar power generation device G1 is used for line voltage adjustment. The voltage is adjusted by the transformer 400 and the system voltage adjusting transformer 500.

  The line voltage adjusting transformer 400 and the system voltage adjusting transformer 500 are, for example, transformers with a load tap changer, and the transformer ratio (target voltage) is controlled by the prediction device 100 ′, respectively. It is a device for adjusting the voltage of the electric wire L1. Each of the consumers R1 to R4 has a home appliance or an induction motor as a power load, and the power received from the high voltage distribution line L1 to the low voltage distribution line via the pole transformers Tr1 to Tr4 Used for power load. In addition, the transformation ratio of the pole transformers Tr1 to Tr4 is normally set so that the supply voltage to the low-voltage distribution line is within an appropriate range in consideration of the voltage drop of the power transmitted from the system voltage adjustment transformer 500 ( 101 ± 6V). In addition, the point A, B point, D point, E point, and F point in FIG. 7 are points branched from the high voltage distribution line L1 on the way from the upstream side near the system voltage adjusting transformer 500 to the downstream side. Represent.

  The line voltage adjusting transformer 400 and the system voltage adjusting transformer 500 automatically adjust the target voltage using a line voltage drop compensator (LDC) to cope with fluctuations in the downstream voltage. The method to do is generally taken. However, when a distributed power source (solar power generation device G1) is connected to the downstream side as in this embodiment, the line voltage drop compensator can handle the change in current because it cannot be accurately grasped. In addition, since a certain time (at least several tens of seconds or more) is required for the tap switching of the transformer with a load tap changer, it is impossible to cope with a rapid voltage fluctuation of the distribution line.

  Therefore, in the prediction device 100 ′ according to the present embodiment, a “voltage adjustment unit 115” is further provided as a functional configuration of the control unit 110, and the voltage adjustment unit 115 of the photovoltaic power generation device G1 calculated by the power generation amount prediction unit 114 is provided. Based on the predicted value of the amount of power generation, the target voltage of the line voltage adjustment transformer 400 and the system voltage adjustment transformer 500 is controlled, particularly in the vicinity of the position where the photovoltaic power generation device G1 of the high voltage distribution line L1 is connected. It is set as the aspect which suppresses the voltage fluctuation of F point.

  Specifically, the voltage adjustment unit 115 calculates the voltage fluctuation at the point F based on the predicted value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation device G1, and the target of the line voltage adjustment transformer 400 and the system voltage adjustment transformer 500 is calculated. Calculate the amount of voltage variation. At this time, the voltage adjustment unit 115 is, for example, the predicted value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation device G1, the line impedance of the high-voltage distribution line L1, the target voltage at the F point of the high-voltage distribution line L1, the power load of the high-voltage distribution line L1. Based on a coefficient obtained from the predicted value or the like, the amount to be changed of the target voltage is calculated by the following expression 4. Note that Equation 4 is a well-known tidal current calculation, and a detailed description thereof will be omitted.

尚、予測装置１００’の記憶部１２０は、上記の電圧調整部１１５が目標電圧の変動すべき量を算出するために参照するデータとして、電力系統データ１２５を有する。電力系統データ１２５は、例えば、最上流の発電機から各点の需要家に電力を送電する現在の電力系統や、当該電力系統における配電線の線路インピーダンス、太陽光発電装置Ｇ１の接続位置、高圧配電線Ｌ１の各点で維持すべき適正電圧等に関するデータである。

Note that the storage unit 120 of the prediction device 100 ′ includes power system data 125 as data referred to by the voltage adjustment unit 115 to calculate the amount of change in the target voltage. The power system data 125 includes, for example, the current power system that transmits power from the most upstream generator to consumers at each point, the line impedance of distribution lines in the power system, the connection position of the photovoltaic power generation device G1, the high voltage It is the data regarding the appropriate voltage etc. which should be maintained at each point of the distribution line L1.

  Then, the voltage adjustment unit 115 outputs, to the line voltage adjustment transformer 400 and the system voltage adjustment transformer 500, the amount of change of the target voltage calculated above as an instruction signal. Adjust the target voltage at the time of prediction. In other words, the line voltage adjusting transformer 400 and the system voltage adjusting transformer 500 are the solar power generation apparatus obtained from the prediction apparatus 100 ′ as a temporary target voltage when the power generation amount of the solar power generation apparatus G1 is not considered. A value obtained by adding the fluctuation amount of the target voltage corresponding to the power generation amount of G1 is set as a normal target voltage. The voltage adjustment unit 115 may control these devices so that the voltage output to the secondary side of the line voltage adjustment transformer 400 and the system voltage adjustment transformer 500 approaches the target voltage. The target voltage itself may be transmitted as data, or a value related to the target voltage, for example, a variation amount of the target voltage may be transmitted as data, and these devices may set the target voltage based on the data.

  As described above, according to the prediction device 100 ′ according to the present embodiment, the line voltage adjustment transformer 400 and the system voltage adjustment transformer are preliminarily determined based on the variation in the power generation amount of the solar power generation device due to the change in the amount of solar radiation. The target voltage of the device 500 can be set.

<Other embodiments>
In each of the above embodiments, the solar radiation amount is measured using the solar radiation amount measuring devices T1 to T4, and converted from the clear sky index converted from the actual measurement value of the solar radiation amount and the predicted value of the global solar radiation amount. The prediction error was calculated by the difference of the clear sky index. However, the prediction error of the predicted value of the solar radiation amount does not necessarily have to be calculated based on the difference in the clear sky index, and may simply be calculated based on the difference between the actually measured solar radiation amount and the predicted value of the solar radiation amount. Further, the amount of solar radiation to be measured may be a direct solar radiation amount instead of the total solar radiation amount. Further, the solar radiation amount measuring device may be a measurement using a photoelectric conversion element instead of the measurement using a thermoelectric element. Further, if there is a solar power generation device that can acquire the actual value of the power generation amount, an actual measurement value of the solar radiation amount may be calculated from the actual value and used.

  In addition, the power generation characteristics of the solar power generation device may change depending on the temperature or the like. Therefore, when calculating the predicted value of the power generation amount of the solar power generation device, weather prediction data such as temperature may be referred to in addition to the amount of solar radiation. In that case, similarly to the amount of solar radiation, a prediction error at the installation position of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus may be calculated and reflected.

  Moreover, in each said embodiment, about the case where the solar radiation amount measuring device is not installed in the installation position of the solar power generation device G1, it installs in four directions around the solar power generation device G1 from the installation position of the solar power generation device G1. The aspect which uses the measured value of the solar radiation amount measuring apparatus T1-T4 made was shown. However, when the solar radiation amount measuring device is not installed close to the four directions around the solar power generation device, only the actual measurement values of the solar radiation amount measuring device in two or three directions may be used.

  Moreover, in each said embodiment, the estimation part 112 is the predicted value of the solar radiation amount in the installation position of the solar power generation device G1 using the measured value and predicted value of the solar radiation amount about the time zone immediately before the time of prediction. The prediction error is calculated. However, even if it does not include the time zone immediately before the prediction time point, the amount of solar radiation for the first time zone, for example, two hours before, is likely to obtain a certain degree of accuracy to calculate the prediction error. It may be an actual measurement value and a predicted value. Similarly, the correction unit 113 is later than the first time zone in which there is a possibility that a certain accuracy can be obtained in the calculated prediction error even when the next time zone of the prediction time point is not included. It may be a predicted value of the amount of solar radiation for the second time zone, for example, 5 hours later.

  Moreover, although each said embodiment demonstrated the aspect which estimates the electric power generation amount of a solar power generation device, the prediction apparatus which concerns on this invention is another power generation device using natural energy, such as a wind power generation device and a tidal current power generation device. It can also be used to predict the amount of power generation. That is, the GPV data calculated by the numerical forecast model (local model) may be misaligned with respect to the weather forecast data other than the solar radiation amount similarly to the solar radiation amount. In that case, by calculating the prediction error of the predicted value of the natural energy at the installation position of the power generation device by the same method as in the above embodiment and reflecting this in the predicted value of the next time zone, Similar to the prediction of the power generation amount of the power generation device, the prediction accuracy can be improved. Natural energy is natural energy that is power for generating electricity with the power generation device, and is, for example, the amount of solar radiation, wind speed, and tidal flow velocity.

  Each of the above embodiments discloses an invention specified by the following description.

The main present invention that solves the above-described problems is a prediction device 100, 100 ′ that predicts the amount of power generated by the power generation device G1 using natural energy, and is installed at a plurality of points around the power generation device G1 for power generation. The measured values P _i of natural energy for the first time zone (corresponding to the measured data of the measuring device data 122) acquired from the measuring devices T1 to T4 that measure the used natural energy, and the plurality of points Based on the natural energy predicted value Q _i (corresponding to the weather prediction data 123) for the first time zone, the average value of the prediction errors a _i of the natural energy predicted values Q _i at the plurality of points And a estimator 112 for estimating the value as a prediction error a ₁₈ ′ of the predicted natural energy value Q ₁₈ at the installation position of the power generator G1. Based on the prediction error a ₁₈ ′ of the natural energy predicted value Q ₁₈ at the installation position of the power generation device G1 estimated by 2, the second time zone after the first time zone at the installation location of the power generation device G1 a correction unit 113 for correcting the estimated value Q ₁₈ natural energy for shows and naturally predicted value Q ₁₈ energy 'for the second time zone correction unit 113 corrects the amount of power generation related to renewable energy power Based on the power generation characteristics of the device G1 (corresponding to the data indicating the power generation characteristics of the solar power generation device in the power generation device data 121), the power generation amount prediction for predicting the power generation amount of the power generation device G1 for the second time zone And a prediction device 100, 100 ′. As a result, even when the measuring device is not installed at the installation position of the power generation device G1, the prediction error of the predicted value of natural energy at the installation position of the power generation device G1 is grasped, and a relatively short time ahead. It becomes possible to accurately predict fluctuations in the power generation amount of the power generation device G1.

Here, the estimation unit 112 is installed at a plurality of points around the power generation device G1, and is obtained from the measurement devices T1 to T4 that measure natural energy used for power generation. Based on the actual measurement value P _i and the predicted value Q _i of the natural energy for the first time zone at the plurality of points, the installation position of the power generation device G1 and the measurement devices T1 to T4 at the plurality of points are measured. A value related to the average value of the prediction error a _i of the natural energy predicted value Q _i at the plurality of points is calculated by a weighted average according to the distance of the installation position, and the value is calculated as a natural value at the installation position of the power generator G1. The estimation error a ₁₈ ′ of the energy prediction value Q ₁₈ may be estimated. As a result, the prediction error a _{i at} the installation position of each of the measuring devices T1 to T4 is reflected in the prediction error of the predicted value at the installation position of the power generation device G1 to a degree corresponding to the distance d _i. Can do.

In addition, here, when a measurement device that measures natural energy used for power generation is installed at the installation position of the power generation device G1, the estimation unit 112 acquires the first time zone obtained from the measurement device. Natural energy predicted value Q _i at the installation position of the power generator, based on the actual measured value P _i of the natural energy and the predicted natural energy value Q _i for the first time zone at the installation position of the power generator. _{When 18} measuring errors a ₁₈ ′ are estimated and measurement devices T1 to T4 for measuring natural energy used for power generation are not installed at the installation position of the power generation device G1, the plurality of the surroundings of the power generation device G1 obtained from the measuring device T1~T4 installed at a point, the measured value P _i of the first natural energy for the time zone, in the plurality of points, the first renewable for hours A prediction value Q _i of over, based on, and calculating a value relating to the average value of the prediction error a _i of the prediction value Q _i of the natural energy in the plurality of points, at the installation position of the value power generator G1, It may be estimated as a prediction error a ₁₈ ′ of the natural energy predicted value Q ₁₈ .

  Here, the power generation device G1 may be a solar power generation device that uses sunlight as natural energy, and the measurement devices T1 to T4 may be solar radiation amount measurement devices.

Here, the prediction error a _i of the natural energy predicted value Q _i is the clear sky index calculated by dividing the measured value P _i of the global solar radiation amount by the solar radiation amount outside the atmosphere, and the prediction of the global solar radiation amount. It may be a value calculated by the difference from the clear sky index calculated by dividing the value Q _i by the amount of solar radiation outside the atmosphere.

  Here, the plurality of points may include at least four points around the power generation device G1 with respect to the installation position of the power generation device G1. Thereby, when estimating the prediction error of the predicted value of the natural energy at the installation position of the power generator G1, the prediction error in each direction around the installation position can be reflected.

Here, the natural energy predicted value Q _i may be GPV data.

Further, here, the estimation unit 112 and the correction unit 113 include the installation position of the power generation device G1 and the installation positions of the measurement devices T1 to T4 among the meshes partitioned for calculating the natural energy predicted value Q _i . It may be determined based on the corresponding mesh position.

  Here, the first time zone may include a time zone within one hour immediately before the predicted time point.

  In addition, here, the prediction device 100 ′ determines the power generation amount of the power generation device G1 for the second time zone predicted by the power generation amount prediction unit 114 and the connection position of the distribution line to which the power generation device G1 is connected to the grid. On the basis of the voltage adjustment transformers 400 and 500 for adjusting the voltage of the distribution line, a target voltage for the second time zone of the voltage output to the secondary side is calculated, and the voltage adjustment transformers 400 and 500 are A voltage adjusting unit 115 to be controlled may be further provided.

  As mentioned above, although the specific example of this invention was demonstrated in detail, these are only illustrations and do not limit a claim. The technology described in the claims includes various modifications and changes of the specific examples illustrated above.

G1 to G5 Photovoltaic power generation devices T1 to T10 Solar radiation amount measuring device 100, 100 ′ prediction device 200 weather information providing device 300 communication line 400 line voltage adjusting device 500 system voltage adjusting device M mesh P measured value Q of natural energy Q of natural energy Prediction value a Prediction error R1 to R4 of natural energy prediction value Electric power load LL High voltage bus L1 High voltage distribution line

Claims (10)

A prediction device for predicting the power generation amount of a power generation device using natural energy,
Installed at a plurality of points around the power generation device, obtained from a measurement device that measures natural energy used for power generation, measured values of natural energy for a first time zone, and at the plurality of points, Based on the predicted value of natural energy for the first time zone, a value related to the average value of the predicted error of the predicted value of natural energy at the plurality of points is calculated, and the value is set as the installation position of the power generator. An estimation unit for estimating a prediction error of a predicted value of natural energy in
Based on the prediction error of the predicted value of natural energy at the installation position of the power generation device estimated by the estimation unit, about the second time zone after the first time zone at the installation position of the power generation device. A correction unit for correcting the predicted value of natural energy;
Based on the predicted value of the natural energy for the second time zone corrected by the correction unit and the power generation characteristics of the power generation device indicating the relationship between the natural energy and the power generation amount, the second time zone A power generation amount prediction unit for predicting a power generation amount of the power generation device;
A prediction apparatus comprising: The estimation unit is installed at a plurality of points around the power generation device, obtained from a measurement device that measures natural energy used for power generation, and an actual measurement value of the natural energy for the first time zone, Based on the predicted value of natural energy for the first time zone at a plurality of points, based on the weighted average according to the distance between the installation position of the power generation device and the installation position of the measurement device at the plurality of points, A value related to an average value of prediction errors of predicted values of natural energy at the plurality of points is calculated, and the value is estimated as a prediction error of predicted values of natural energy at the installation position of the power generation device. The prediction device according to claim 1. The estimation unit includes
When a measurement device that measures natural energy used for power generation is installed at the installation position of the power generation device, the measured value of natural energy for the first time zone obtained from the measurement device, and the Based on the predicted value of natural energy for the first time zone at the installation position of the power generator, and estimating the prediction error of the predicted value of natural energy at the installation position of the power generator,
When the measurement device for measuring natural energy used for power generation is not installed at the installation position of the power generation device, the first device obtained from the measurement devices installed at a plurality of points around the power generation device, Based on the measured value of the natural energy for the time zone and the predicted value of the natural energy for the first time zone at the plurality of points, the prediction error of the predicted value of the natural energy at the plurality of points is calculated. 3. The prediction device according to claim 1, wherein a value related to an average value is calculated, and the value is estimated as a prediction error of a predicted value of natural energy at an installation position of the power generation device. 4. The power generation device according to claim 1, wherein the power generation device is a solar power generation device that uses sunlight as natural energy, and the measurement device is a solar radiation amount measurement device. 5. Prediction device. The prediction error of the predicted value of natural energy is the clear sky index calculated by dividing the measured value of the total solar radiation amount by the atmospheric solar radiation amount, and the predicted value of the total solar radiation amount divided by the atmospheric solar radiation amount. The prediction device according to claim 4, wherein the prediction device is a value calculated by a difference from the calculated clear sky index. The prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 5, wherein the plurality of points include at least four points around the power generation device with respect to an installation position of the power generation device. The prediction value of the natural energy is GPV data. The prediction device according to claim 1, wherein the prediction value of natural energy is GPV data. The estimation unit and the correction unit determine an installation position of the power generation device and an installation position of the measurement device based on a corresponding mesh position among meshes divided for calculating a predicted value of natural energy. The prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein: The prediction device according to any one of claims 1 to 8, wherein the first time zone includes a time zone within one hour immediately before the prediction time point. The voltage of the distribution line is adjusted based on the amount of power generation of the power generation device for the second time zone predicted by the power generation amount prediction unit and the connection position of the distribution line connected to the grid by the power generation device. The voltage output from the voltage adjustment transformer to the secondary side is calculated with respect to the target voltage for the second time zone, and the voltage output from the voltage adjustment transformer to the secondary side is the target voltage. The prediction apparatus according to claim 1, further comprising a voltage adjustment unit that controls the voltage adjustment transformer so as to approach a voltage.

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