JP6452854B2 - Power generation amount calculation device, power generation amount calculation system, power generation amount calculation method, and program - Google Patents

Description

  The present invention relates to a power generation amount calculation device, a power generation amount calculation system, a power generation amount calculation method, and a program.

  2. Description of the Related Art In recent years, technology that utilizes natural energy has attracted attention, and there are many cases where power generation devices that generate power using natural energy represented by sunlight and wind power are installed in consumers. Such a consumer consumes the electric power generated by the power generator or supplies it to a commercial power system and sells it to an electric utility. Thereby, a consumer can reduce the electric power purchased from a commercial power grid, and can obtain an economic profit.

  Here, if the generated power of the power generator is not stable, the use of the generated power and the operation plan of the device that consumes the power are determined in advance by calculating the predicted value of the generated power, and the generated power is made effective. It is desirable to use it. Therefore, a technique for predicting the power generation amount of the power generation apparatus has been proposed (see, for example, Patent Document 1).

  Patent Document 1 describes a technique for creating a power generation rate distribution map from the power generation amount and latitude / longitude information of a plurality of photovoltaic power generation apparatuses, and predicting a future power generation amount from a power generation rate distribution map that changes from the past to the present. ing.

JP2015-138912A

  In the technique described in Patent Document 1, if a plurality of solar power generation devices are densely distributed in a relatively narrow area, a predicted value of the power generation amount can be calculated with a certain degree of accuracy. However, when the distribution of the photovoltaic power generation apparatus is sparse, it is considered that the calculation accuracy of the predicted value is significantly reduced with the technique described in Patent Document 1. For this reason, there is room for improving the calculation accuracy of the predicted value of the power generation amount.

  The present invention has been made in view of the above circumstances, and an object thereof is to improve the calculation accuracy of the predicted value of the power generation amount.

In order to achieve the above object, a power generation amount calculation apparatus according to the present invention acquires a forecast for obtaining a weather forecast at each of a first point where a first power generation device is installed and a second point where a second power generation device is installed. acquiring means, prediction means for predicting a power generation amount of the power generation amount and the second power generating apparatus of the first power generation unit from the weather forecast obtained by forecasting obtaining means, the actual value that indicates the amount of power generated by the second power generating apparatus The first power generation device is identified from the power generation amount acquisition means, the first power generation device and the second power generation device, and the power generation amount predicted by the prediction means for the identified first power generation device is determined as the second power generation predicted by the prediction means. Correction means for correcting based on the power generation amount of the apparatus and the actual value acquired by the power generation amount acquisition means .

  According to the present invention, the power generation amount of the first power generation device is predicted from the weather forecast, and the predicted power generation amount is corrected based on the value of the power generation amount of the second power generation device. Thereby, the calculation accuracy of the predicted value of the power generation amount can be improved.

It is a figure which shows the structure of the electric power generation amount calculation system which concerns on Embodiment 1. FIG. It is a 1st figure for demonstrating the principle by which a power generation amount calculation system calculates power generation amount. It is a 2nd figure for demonstrating the principle by which a power generation amount calculation system calculates power generation amount. It is a figure which shows the hardware constitutions of an electric power generation amount calculation apparatus. It is a block diagram which shows the functional structure of an electric power generation amount calculation apparatus. It is a figure which shows an example of customer information typically. It is a flowchart which shows an electric power generation amount calculation process. It is a figure which shows an example of the screen displayed by a display part. It is a flowchart which shows a prediction process. It is a flowchart which shows a prediction correction process.

  Hereinafter, embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the drawings.

Embodiment.
FIG. 1 shows a configuration of a power generation amount calculation system 100 according to the first embodiment. The power generation amount calculation system 100 is a system that calculates a predicted value of the power generation amount of each power generation apparatus installed in a plurality of consumers. As shown in FIG. 1, the power generation amount calculation system 100 includes a power generation amount calculation device 10, a weather information server 20 that distributes weather forecasts, a first power generation device 31 a installed in the first consumer 31, and a second consumer. The second power generation device 32 a installed at 32 and the third power generation device 33 a installed at the third consumer 33 are included. Below, the 1st consumer 31, the 2nd consumer 32, and the 3rd consumer 33 are named generically, a consumer is only written, and the 1st power generator 31a, the 2nd power generator 32a, and the 3rd power generator 33a are named generically. And simply referred to as a power generator. Note that each of the power generation devices according to the present embodiment is a distributed power source that includes a solar panel and generates power using sunlight.

  The power generation amount calculation device 10, the weather information server 20, and the power generation device are all connected to the wide area network NW. The power generation amount calculation device 10, the weather information server 20, and the power generation device communicate with each other by transmitting and receiving signals via the wide area network NW. The wide area network NW is, for example, the Internet. The power generation device is connected to the wide area network NW via a HEMS (Home Energy Management System) controller that manages and manages the power generation device, the power storage device, and the electric equipment that consumes power installed in each consumer. Also good.

  The power generation amount calculation system 100 predicts the power generation amount of the power generation device from the weather forecast distributed by the weather information server 20, and the power generation amount predicted for each power generation device based on the actual value of the power generation amount by other power generation devices. to correct. The correction of the predicted value will be described with reference to FIG.

  As shown in FIG. 2, if there is no cloud at the point where the first power generation device 31a is installed, sunlight reaches the solar panel of the first power generation device 31a without being blocked by the cloud, and the first power generation device 31a generates electric power. On the other hand, if there is a cloud at the point where the second power generation device 32a is installed, the amount of power generated by the second power generation device 32a decreases because sunlight is blocked by the cloud. Here, if wind is blowing from the point of the second power generation device 32a toward the point of the first power generation device 31a, it is estimated that the power generation amount of the first power generation device 31a will decrease in the future due to the movement of clouds. The

  FIG. 3 shows an example of the predicted power generation amount and the power generation amount corrected after the prediction. As shown in FIG. 3, if the deviation between the actual value and the predicted value of the power generation amount of the second power generation device 32a is remarkably large, it is considered that a cloud has been applied to the sky above the second power generation device 32a. Here, if the wind is blowing from the point of the second power generation device 32a to the point of the first power generation device 31a, the power generation amount calculation system 100 calculates the predicted value of the power generation amount of the first power generation device 31a in the future as shown in FIG. Correct as indicated by the arrow inside. As a result, the power generation amount can be accurately predicted in a time segment shorter than the weather forecast delivery interval.

  Returning to FIG. 1, the power generation amount calculation device 10 is a server device that acquires a weather forecast from the weather information server 20 and collects the actual value of the power generation amount from the power generation device and notifies the power generation device of the predicted value of the power generation amount. is there. The power generation amount calculation device 10 may distribute the predicted value of the power generation amount to the HEMS controller in each customer.

  FIG. 4 shows a hardware configuration of the power generation amount calculation apparatus 10. As shown in FIG. 4, the power generation amount calculation device 10 is configured as a computer having a processor H1, a main storage unit H2, an auxiliary storage unit H3, an input unit H4, an output unit H5, and a communication unit H6. The main storage unit H2, the auxiliary storage unit H3, the input unit H4, the output unit H5, and the communication unit H6 are all connected to the processor H1 via the internal bus H7.

  The processor H1 includes a CPU (Central Processing Unit). The processor H1 exhibits the functions described later by executing the program Pr stored in the auxiliary storage unit H3.

  The main storage unit H2 includes a RAM (Random Access Memory). The main storage unit H2 loads the program Pr from the auxiliary storage unit H3. The main storage unit H2 is used as a work area for the processor H1.

  The auxiliary storage unit H3 includes a nonvolatile memory represented by an HDD (Hard Disk Drive) or a flash memory. The auxiliary storage unit H3 stores various data used for the processing of the processor H1 in addition to the program Pr.

  The input unit H4 includes an input key and a capacitance type pointing device. The input unit H4 acquires information input by the user and notifies the processor H1.

  The output unit H5 includes a display device represented by an LCD (Liquid Crystal Display). For example, the output unit H5 is formed integrally with a pointing device that configures the input unit H4, thereby configuring a touch screen.

  The communication unit H6 includes a communication interface circuit for communicating with an external device. The communication unit H6 notifies the processor H1 of information included in the signal received from the outside, and transmits a signal for transmitting the information output from the processor H1 to an external device.

  FIG. 5 shows a functional configuration of the power generation amount calculation apparatus 10. The function of the power generation amount calculation device 10 shown in FIG. 5 is realized by the above-described hardware operating in cooperation. The power generation amount calculation device 10 includes, as its functions, a weather forecast acquisition unit 101 and a weather result acquisition unit 102 that acquire information from the weather information server 20, a power generation amount acquisition unit 103 that acquires an actual value of power generation amount from the power generation device, and a database A management unit 120 that manages the solar radiation, a solar radiation amount calculation unit 105 that calculates the amount of solar radiation incident from outside the atmosphere at each customer's point, and a prediction model update that updates the prediction model 107 for predicting the power generation amount from the weather forecast Unit 106, prediction unit 108 for predicting the amount of power generation from the weather forecast, prediction value DB 109 for accumulating the prediction value of the power generation amount, correction unit 110 for correcting the prediction value of the power generation amount, display unit 111 for displaying the prediction value, prediction value And a control unit 113 for controlling the electrical equipment installed in the consumer based on the predicted value.

  The weather forecast acquisition unit 101 is realized mainly by the communication unit H6. The weather forecast acquisition unit 101 acquires a weather forecast at each point of the consumer where the power generation device is installed from the weather information server 20 and stores data indicating the acquired weather forecast in the weather forecast DB 121 of the management unit 120. The weather forecast is distributed from the weather information server 20 every 3 hours, for example.

  The weather record acquisition unit 102 is realized mainly by the communication unit H6. The weather record acquisition unit 102 inquires the weather information server 20 for the latest weather record every day, for example, and stores the weather record obtained by the response of the weather information server 20 in the weather record DB 122 of the management unit 120.

  Here, the weather forecast is information indicating predicted values of various weather conditions, and the weather performance is information indicating actual values of various weather conditions. The weather conditions include, for example, weather conditions including “sunny” and “rain”, temperature, humidity, precipitation, atmospheric pressure, wind direction, wind speed, solar radiation, cloud height, cloud cover, and visibility. These weather conditions may be an altitude distribution. Moreover, the weather forecast acquisition part 101 and the weather results acquisition part 102 may acquire the distribution of the weather conditions in the wide area including each customer's point as a weather forecast or a weather result.

  The power generation amount acquisition unit 103 is mainly realized by the communication unit H6. The power generation amount acquisition unit 103 acquires the actual value of the power generation amount of the power generation device from the power generation device, and stores the acquired actual value in the power generation amount DB 123 of the management unit 120. The actual value of the power generation amount means a measurement value of the power generation amount per unit time.

  The management unit 120 is realized mainly by the cooperation of the processor H1 and the auxiliary storage unit H3. The management unit 120 accumulates a weather forecast DB 121 for accumulating weather forecasts, a weather performance DB 122 for accumulating weather results, a power generation amount DB 123 for accumulating performance values of power generation, and customer information regarding each customer and power generator. It has a customer information DB 124. Here, DB means a database.

  FIG. 6 schematically shows an example of customer information. As shown in FIG. 6, the customer information is installed in the customer ID, the point information indicating the point of the customer, the reference location of the weather information, and the customer, which are associated with each other. It is the information which consists of the information regarding the electric power generating apparatus which is. In addition, ID means an identification code, and in FIG. 6, the identification code equal to the reference code of each consumer is shown as the customer ID for convenience of explanation.

  The point information is information for specifying each customer's point by latitude and longitude. The reference location of the weather information indicates a point serving as a reference for information distributed by the weather information server 20 as weather information at the point of the consumer. For example, weather information based on a weather station or AMeDAS point nearest to each consumer is distributed from the weather information server 20 as weather information at each customer's point. The weather information includes a weather forecast and a weather record.

  The information regarding the power generation device is information including a device ID, a related device ID, an influence degree, and a specification of the power generation device that are associated with each other for each power generation device. In FIG. 6, an identification code equal to the reference code of each power generator is shown as a device ID.

  The related device ID is an identification code of another power generation device related to each power generation device, and indicates the device ID of another power generation device that can correlate with the power generation amount indicated by the device ID. For example, if the condition that the wind direction is directed from the second consumer 32 to the first consumer 31 is satisfied, the power generation amount of the first power generation device 31 a installed in the first consumer 31 is installed in the second consumer 32. The generated power of the second power generation device 32a can be correlated with a time difference. For this reason, as shown in FIG. 6, the device ID “31a” and the related device ID “32a” are associated with each other.

  However, if the distance between consumers is long, the correlation between the amounts of power generation becomes weak. Further, depending on the terrain, the correlation between the power generation amounts is weak even if the distance between the consumers is short, or the correlation is strong even if the distance between the consumers is long. Furthermore, when a power generation device breaks down or a high-rise building that blocks sunlight is constructed in the vicinity of a consumer, the strong correlation between the power generation amounts becomes extremely weak. There may also be cases where the correlation increases or decreases as the weather conditions change according to the season.

  The degree of influence is a value between 0 and 1, and indicates the strength of the correlation between the power generation amount of the power generation device indicated by the device ID and the power generation amount of the power generation device indicated by the related device ID. The degree of influence increases as the correlation increases. However, the influence degree may be a negative value. The negative influence level indicates that, for example, when the power generation amount of the power generation device indicated by the device ID increases, the power generation amount of the power generation device indicated by the related device ID decreases.

  The device ID, the related device ID, and the degree of influence constitute related information 125 that associates the power generation devices. This related information 125 is used to accurately correct the predicted value of the power generation amount, excluding power generation devices that cannot correlate the power generation amount.

  The specification of the power generation device includes a rated value indicating the maximum capacity of the power generation capacity. The rated value is used to normalize the power generation amount for a plurality of power generation devices and correct the power generation amount. The power generation amount means, for example, the power generation amount in kWh units, but when the power generation amount is predicted and when the predicted power generation amount is corrected, the power generation amount normalized by the rated value is used.

  Returning to FIG. 5, the prediction model update unit 106 is mainly realized by the processor H1. The prediction model update unit 106 updates the prediction model 107 every day by obtaining a relationship between the ratio between the amount of solar radiation outside the atmosphere and the amount of power generation and the weather performance by regression analysis. The prediction model 107 updated in this way is data that substantially indicates a regression equation, and is stored in the auxiliary storage unit H3.

  The prediction unit 108 is mainly realized by the processor H1. The prediction unit 108 uses the prediction model 107 to predict the power generation amount of the power generation apparatus installed in the consumer from the weather forecast and the amount of solar radiation at the point of each consumer. And the prediction part 108 stores the predicted value of electric power generation amount in predicted value DB109.

  The predicted value DB 109 is mainly realized by the auxiliary storage unit H3. The predicted value DB 109 stores the predicted value of the power generation amount calculated for each power generator by the prediction unit 108.

  The correction unit 110 is mainly realized by the processor H1. The correction unit 110 monitors the actual value of the power generation amount and the predicted value of the power generation amount stored in the prediction value DB 109, and the actual value greatly deviating from the predicted value is obtained for the power generation amount by one power generation device. In this case, the predicted value of the power generation amount by another power generation device is corrected. For example, as shown in FIG. 3, when the weather forecast indicates “clear” and the actual power generation value is large, when the actual power generation value of the second power generation device 32 a greatly deviates from the predicted value, 2 It is conceivable that a cloud appeared above the customer 32.

  And the correction | amendment part 110 specifies the consumer who has the electric power generating apparatus which should correct | amend the predicted value of electric power generation amount using the information which shows at least one of the direction or speed which a weather phenomenon propagates. The meteorological phenomenon according to the present embodiment is a decrease in the amount of solar radiation due to clouds. The direction and speed at which the cloud moves is the wind direction and wind speed at the altitude at which the cloud is distributed, and is included in the weather forecast. In the present embodiment, the power generation device whose power generation amount is to be corrected is located leeward of the power generation device in which the actual value of the power generation amount greatly deviates from the predicted value.

  Furthermore, the correction unit 110 calculates a time during which a weather phenomenon propagates to the point of the specified power generation device and a correction value of the power generation amount predicted for the specified power generation device. This correction value is calculated based on the degree of influence obtained by comparing the correction value of the power generation amount calculated in the past between the power generation apparatuses or between the consumers and the actual value of the power generation amount. However, when there is no correction value calculated in the past, the correction unit 110 sets the initial value of the influence level as 1, and sets a correction value that deviates from the predicted value in the same manner as the actual amount of power generation greatly deviated from the predicted value. calculate. Moreover, about the electric power generating apparatus specified as what should correct | amend electric power generation several times, the correction | amendment part 110 is good also considering the average value of the correction value calculated whenever it specified as a new correction value.

  The display unit 111 is realized mainly by the output unit H5. The display unit 111 displays information related to the predicted value of the power generation amount predicted by the prediction unit 108 and information related to the correction value of the power generation amount corrected by the correction unit 110.

  The notification unit 112 is mainly realized by the communication unit H6. The notification unit 112 distributes the predicted value stored in the predicted value DB 109 to each consumer.

  The control unit 113 is realized mainly by the cooperation of the processor H1 and the communication unit H6. The control unit 113 controls the electrical equipment installed in each consumer based on the predicted value of the power generation amount, or changes the operation plan of the electrical equipment.

  For example, if the predicted value of the amount of power generation is corrected to a small value when an electric water heater is operated by boiling water with generated power in a certain consumer, unnecessary power purchase occurs at this consumer. The control unit 113 stops the boiling operation in preparation for a decrease in the amount of power generation. In this case, the control unit 113 may change the operation plan of the power storage device so that the power stored in the power storage device is supplied to the electric water heater when the amount of power generation is reduced.

  In addition, the predicted value of the power generation amount that is initially predicted may be replaced with a large correction value by the correction unit 110. In this case, the control unit 113 may add a heating operation plan for the electric water heater. In addition, the control unit 113 may supply power to the power storage device to reduce the charging rate in advance to prepare for charging of generated power that is larger than the initial prediction.

  Next, the power generation amount calculation process executed by the power generation amount calculation apparatus 10 will be described with reference to FIGS. The power generation amount calculation process shown in FIG. 7 is executed after the power generation amount calculation device 10 is turned on. In the following description, the hardware configuration shown in FIG. 4 and the functional configuration shown in FIG. 5 are used as appropriate.

  In the power generation amount calculation process, first, the processor H1 determines whether or not a weather forecast has been distributed from the weather information server 20 (step S301). When it determines with the weather forecast not being delivered (step S301; No), the processor H1 transfers a process to step S200.

  On the other hand, when it is determined that the weather forecast has been delivered (step S301; Yes), the prediction unit 108 executes a prediction process, and predicts the power generation amount of the power generator installed in a plurality of consumers (step S100). Details of this prediction process will be described later.

  Next, the correction | amendment part 110 performs a prediction correction process (step S200). Details of this prediction correction processing will be described later.

  Next, the display unit 111 displays the prediction result (step S302). FIG. 8 shows an example of a screen displayed by the display unit 111. As illustrated in FIG. 8, the display unit 111 displays the predicted value and the correction value so that they can be compared. In addition, when the operation state or the operation plan of the electric device is changed by the control unit 113, the display unit 111 preferably displays that the operation state or the operation plan is changed.

  Next, the control part 113 controls the electric equipment installed in the consumer by which the predicted value of electric power generation was correct | amended according to the prediction result (step S303).

  Next, the management unit 120 determines whether or not a new actual value of the power generation amount has been acquired by the power generation amount acquisition unit 103 (step S304). When it determines with the performance value of power generation amount not being acquired (step S304; No), the power generation amount calculation apparatus 10 repeats the process after step S301.

  On the other hand, when determining that the actual value of the power generation amount has been acquired (step S304; Yes), the management unit 120 compares the correction value of the power generation amount with the actual value, and corrects the related information 125 according to the comparison result. To do. Specifically, the management unit 120 corrects the degree of influence so that the correction value approaches the actual value. When the actual value is substantially equal to the initial predicted value, the management unit 120 determines that the correction is unnecessary, and deletes the related device ID used for the correction from the related information 125.

  Thereafter, the power generation amount calculation apparatus 10 repeats the processes after step S301. Thereby, the predicted value of the power generation amount is corrected in a cycle shorter than the cycle in which the weather information server 20 delivers the weather forecast.

  Next, the prediction process in step S100 will be described with reference to FIG.

  As shown in FIG. 9, in the prediction process, the prediction unit 108 acquires the amount of solar radiation outside the atmosphere calculated by the outdoor solar radiation amount calculation unit 105 (step S <b> 101). Next, the prediction unit 108 acquires a weather forecast at each customer point from the weather forecast DB 121 (step S102). Next, the prediction unit 108 predicts the power generation amount of each power generation device from the acquired amount of solar radiation outside the atmosphere and the weather forecast using the prediction model 107 (step S103). Thereafter, the processing by the processor H1 returns to the power generation amount calculation processing shown in FIG.

  Next, the prediction correction process in step S200 will be described with reference to FIG.

  As illustrated in FIG. 10, in the prediction correction process, the correction unit 110 selects one customer that has not yet been selected (step S <b> 201).

  Next, the correction unit 110 calculates an error between the predicted value of the amount of power generated by the power generation device installed in the selected consumer and the latest actual value, and sets a predetermined threshold value for the magnitude of this error. It is determined whether or not it exceeds (step S202). The threshold corresponds to, for example, 5% of the actual value.

  When it determines with the magnitude | size of an error not exceeding a threshold value (step S202; No), the correction | amendment part 110 transfers a process to step S207. On the other hand, when it determines with the magnitude | size of an error exceeding a threshold value (step S202; Yes), the correction | amendment part 110 acquires customer information from customer information DB124 (step S203). Specifically, the correction unit 110 reads customer point information included in the customer information.

  Next, the correction unit 110 acquires at least one of the direction and the speed at which the weather phenomenon propagates (step S204). Specifically, the correction unit 110 reads the wind direction and wind speed around the customer selected in step S201 from the weather forecast DB 121.

  Next, the correction | amendment part 110 searches the consumer used as correction | amendment object, and determines whether a power generator can be specified (step S205). Specifically, the correction unit 110 searches for other customers at a destination where the change in weather conditions affecting the power generation amount propagates from the point of the customer selected in Step S201. And the correction | amendment part 110 specifies the electric power generating apparatus installed in the searched consumer. However, when specifying the power generation device, the correction unit 110 excludes the power generation device that is not registered in the related information 125 as being related to the power generation device installed in the selected consumer.

  When it determines with a power generation device not being identifiable (step S205; No), the correction | amendment part 110 transfers a process to step S207. On the other hand, when it is determined that the power generation device can be specified (step S205; Yes), the correction unit 110 uses the influence degree between the consumer selected in step S201 and the consumer acquired in step S205 to identify the specified demand. The power generation amount of the power generator installed in the house is corrected (step S206).

  Thereafter, the correction unit 110 repeats the processes after step S205.

  In step S207, the correction unit 110 determines whether all consumers have been selected (step S207). When it determines with not having selected all the consumers (step S207; No), the correction | amendment part 110 transfers a process to step S201, and selects one consumer which has not been selected yet. Thereby, the process of step S201-S207 is repeatedly performed. Then, the power generation amount calculation device 10 monitors whether or not the actual value of the power generation device installed at each consumer greatly deviates from the predicted value, and predicts the power generation device installed at another consumer as necessary. The generated power generation is corrected.

  On the other hand, when it determines with having selected all the consumers (step S207; Yes), the correction | amendment part 110 notifies a correction result to the consumer used as correction object via the notification part 112 (step S208).

  Thereafter, the processing by the processor H1 returns to the power generation amount calculation processing shown in FIG.

  As described above, in the power generation amount calculation system 100 according to the present embodiment, the power generation amount calculation device 10 predicts the power generation amounts of a plurality of power generation devices from the weather forecast, and the power generation amount predicted for one power generation device. Is corrected based on the actual value of the power generation amount of other power generation devices. As a result, the power generation amount is predicted from at least the weather forecast even for power generation devices that do not have other power generation devices in the vicinity. Further, the predicted power generation amount is corrected based on the power generation amount of another power generation device. Therefore, the accuracy of the predicted power generation amount can be improved.

  In addition, the correction unit 110 always monitors whether or not the power generation amount predicted by the prediction unit 108 from the weather forecast distributed at a fixed period is a correction target. The amount was corrected. Thereby, the correction unit 110 corrects the predicted value of the power generation amount before a new weather forecast is distributed from the weather information server 20 and acquired by the weather forecast acquisition unit 101. Therefore, the correction unit 110 corrects the predicted value of the power generation amount at a time interval shorter than the weather forecast distribution cycle. As a result, the accuracy of the predicted power generation value can be improved.

  Moreover, the correction | amendment part 110 is the demand where the electric power generating apparatus used as correction | amendment object was installed from the point of the consumer in which the several electric power generating apparatus was installed based on the information regarding at least one of the direction and speed which a weather phenomenon propagates. Identify the location of the house. Thereby, an appropriate power generation device to be corrected is specified.

  Furthermore, the correction | amendment part 110 identified the electric power generating apparatus using the relevant information 125, and corrected the relevant information according to the comparison result of the correction value of power generation amount, and a track record value. Thereby, it is possible to identify the power generation device with which the power generation amount strongly correlates and improve the accuracy of the correction.

  Further, the power generation amount calculation device 10 includes a display unit 111 that displays the power generation amount predicted by the prediction unit 108 and the power generation amount corrected by the correction unit 110. Thereby, the user of the power generation amount calculation device 10 can recognize an accurate predicted value of the power generation amount and appropriately grasp the cause of the change in the operation state or the operation plan of the electric device.

  As mentioned above, although embodiment of this invention was described, this invention is not limited by the said embodiment.

  For example, in the above embodiment, the information included in the weather forecast is used as the direction and speed at which the weather phenomenon propagates in step S204 in FIG. 10, but the present invention is not limited to this. The correction | amendment part 110 may collect the measured value of the wind anemometer installed in each consumer, and may utilize it in step S204.

  In the above embodiment, since the moving direction and speed of the area where the amount of solar radiation decreases due to the clouds are equal to the moving direction and speed of the clouds, the wind direction and the wind speed are used as the direction and speed of propagation of the meteorological phenomenon. This is not a limitation. For example, when a shadow due to a solar eclipse occurs on the ground surface, the moving direction and speed of the area where the solar eclipse is observed correspond to the direction and angle at which the meteorological phenomenon propagates. In addition, when a swarm of insects covering the sky is generated, the movement prediction direction and speed of this swarm correspond to the direction and speed of propagation of the meteorological phenomenon.

  Moreover, although the said embodiment demonstrated the case where a power generation device generated electric power with sunlight, it is not limited to this. For example, the power generation device may be a device that generates power using wind power. When the power generation device generates power using wind power, the power generation amount varies depending on the wind speed, and the power generation amount of one power generation device follows the power generation amount of the other power generation devices according to the transition of the atmospheric pressure distribution. In this case, the meteorological phenomenon in step S204 in FIG. 10 corresponds to the atmospheric pressure distribution.

  Further, the correction of the predicted power generation amount is not limited to that based on the actual value of the power generation amount. For example, the power generation amount calculation device 10 may monitor data including weather information and location information posted to a social networking service (SNS). Since this data indicates that the weather condition indicated by the weather information has been observed at the position indicated by the position information, it is predicted for the power generator installed at a point that may be affected in the future from this weather condition. It can be used to correct the amount of power generated.

  Further, the program Pr stored in the auxiliary storage unit H3 can be read by a computer such as a flexible disk, a CD-ROM (Compact Disk Read-Only Memory), a DVD (Digital Versatile Disk), and an MO (Magneto-Optical disk). By storing and distributing in a recording medium and installing the program Pr in a computer, an apparatus that executes the above-described processing can be configured.

  Further, the program Pr may be stored in a disk device included in a server device on a communication network represented by the Internet, and may be downloaded to a computer, for example, superimposed on a carrier wave.

  The above-described processing can also be achieved by starting and executing the program Pr while transferring it via a network represented by the Internet.

  Furthermore, the above-described processing can also be achieved by executing all or part of the program Pr on the server device and executing the program Pr while the computer transmits / receives information related to the processing via the communication network. .

  In the case where the above functions are realized by sharing an OS (Operating System) or when the functions are realized by cooperation between the OS and an application, only the part other than the OS may be stored in a medium and distributed. It may also be downloaded to a computer.

  The means for realizing the function of the power generation amount calculation device 10 is not limited to software, and a part or all of the means may be realized by dedicated hardware. For example, the solar radiation amount calculation unit 105, the prediction model update unit 106, the prediction unit 108, and the correction unit 110 may be configured using a circuit represented by an FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array) or an ASIC (Application Specific Integrated Circuit). For example, the power generation amount calculation device 10 can save power.

  Various embodiments and modifications can be made to the present invention without departing from the broad spirit and scope of the present invention. The above-described embodiments are for explaining the present invention and do not limit the scope of the present invention. In other words, the scope of the present invention is shown not by the embodiments but by the claims. Various modifications within the scope of the claims and within the scope of the equivalent invention are considered to be within the scope of the present invention.

  The present invention is suitable for predicting the amount of power generated by a power generator.

  DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 100 Power generation amount calculation system, 10 Power generation amount calculation apparatus, 101 Weather forecast acquisition part, 102 Weather performance acquisition part, 103 Electric power generation amount acquisition part, 105 Ambient solar radiation amount calculation part, 106 Prediction model update part, 107 Prediction model, 108 Prediction , 109 predicted value DB, 110 correction unit, 111 display unit, 112 notification unit, 113 control unit, 120 management unit, 121 weather forecast DB, 122 weather performance DB, 123 power generation DB, 124 customer information DB, 125 Information, 20 weather information server, 31 first consumer, 31a first power generator, 32 second consumer, 32a second power generator, 33 third consumer, 33a third power generator, H1 processor, H2 main memory , H3 auxiliary storage, H4 input, H5 output, H6 Nobube, H7 internal bus, NW wide area network, Pr program.

Claims (8)

A forecast acquisition means for acquiring a weather forecast at each of the first point where the first power generator is installed and the second point where the second generator is installed ;
Prediction means for predicting the power generation amount of the first power generation device and the power generation amount of the second power generation device from the weather forecast acquired by the forecast acquisition means;
A power generation amount acquisition means for acquiring actual value indicating a power generation amount of the second power generating unit,
The first power generation device is identified from the first power generation device and the second power generation device, and the power generation amount predicted by the prediction unit for the identified first power generation device is predicted by the prediction unit. Correction means for correcting based on the power generation amount of the power generation device and the actual value acquired by the power generation amount acquisition means ;
A power generation amount calculation device comprising: The correction means corrects the power generation amount predicted from the weather forecast by the prediction means before a new weather forecast is acquired by the forecast acquisition means,
The power generation amount calculation apparatus according to claim 1. The correction means specifies the first point from the first point and the second point based on information on at least one of a direction in which a meteorological phenomenon propagates at the second point and a speed of the propagation. Identifying the first power generator,
The power generation amount calculation device according to claim 1 or 2 . Management means for managing related information associating the first power generation device with the second power generation device,
The correction means identifies the first power generation device associated with the second power generation device from the first power generation device and the second power generation device by the related information,
The management unit corrects the related information according to a comparison result between the power generation amount corrected by the correction unit and an actual measurement value of the power generation amount.
The power generation amount calculation apparatus according to any one of claims 1 to 3 . And further comprising display means for displaying information on the power generation amount predicted by the prediction means and information on the power generation amount corrected by the correction means.
The power generation amount calculation device according to any one of claims 1 to 4 . A first power generator installed at a first point;
A second power generator installed at the second point;
A power generation amount calculation device for calculating a power generation amount of the first power generation device,
The power generation amount calculation device includes:
A forecast acquisition means for acquiring a weather forecast at each of the first point and the second point ;
Prediction means for predicting the power generation amount of the first power generation device and the power generation amount of the second power generation device from the weather forecast acquired by the forecast acquisition means;
A power generation amount acquisition means for acquiring a performance value indicating the power generation amount of the second power generation device;
The first power generation device is identified from the first power generation device and the second power generation device, and the power generation amount predicted by the prediction unit for the identified first power generation device is predicted by the prediction unit. Correction means for correcting based on the power generation amount of the power generation device and the actual value acquired by the power generation amount acquisition means ,
Power generation calculation system. Predicting the power generation amount of the first power generation device and the power generation amount of the second power generation device from the weather forecast at each of the first point where the first power generation device is installed and the second point where the second power generation device is installed A prediction step to
The first power generation device is identified from the first power generation device and the second power generation device, and the power generation amount predicted in the prediction step for the identified first power generation device is predicted in the prediction step. A correction step for correcting based on the power generation amount of the power generation device and the actual value of the power generation amount of the second power generation device ;
Power generation amount calculation method including Computer
Predicting the power generation amount of the first power generation device and the power generation amount of the second power generation device from the weather forecast at each of the first point where the first power generation device is installed and the second point where the second power generation device is installed Prediction means,
The first power generation device is identified from the first power generation device and the second power generation device, and the power generation amount predicted by the prediction unit for the identified first power generation device is predicted by the prediction unit. Correction means for correcting based on the power generation amount of the power generation device and the actual value of the power generation amount of the second power generation device ;
Program to function as.

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