JP2019154213A - Solar power generation amount prediction device and solar power generation amount prediction system - Google Patents

Abstract

To make it possible to predict an amount of solar power generation with high accuracy.SOLUTION: For each area, a data acquisition unit 24 acquires an amount of solar power generation at each position in the area as a solar power generation amount distribution. A prediction part 28 predicts the solar power generation distribution in the area that includes a to-be-predicted position after a predetermined time on the basis of the solar power generation amount distribution of each area around the area including the to-be-predicted position and predicts the solar power generation amount at the to-be-predicted position after the predetermined time on the basis of the predicted solar power generation amount distribution.SELECTED DRAWING: Figure 2

Description

  The present invention relates to a photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device and a photovoltaic power generation amount prediction system.

  Conventionally, methods for predicting PV power generation are known. For example, the prediction target fluctuation pattern in the collation time zone of the power generation amount of the photovoltaic power generation device to be forecasted, and each peripheral fluctuation pattern in the collated time zone before the collation time zone of the power generation amount status of the plurality of peripheral power generation devices Is identified as a windward power generator and becomes a prediction target in a prediction target time zone after a predetermined time based on the peripheral fluctuation pattern of the power generator. A method for predicting a predicted power generation amount Wpv of a power generation device is known (Patent Document 1). In the prior art described in Patent Literature 1, the PV power generation amount to be predicted is predicted from the power generation amount in the vicinity in consideration of the wind direction.

  Moreover, based on the measured value of natural energy for the first time zone obtained from the measuring devices installed at a plurality of points around the power generation device, and the predicted value of natural energy at the plurality of points, An estimation unit that calculates a value related to an average value of prediction errors of predicted values of natural energy at the plurality of points, and estimates the value as a prediction error of predicted values of natural energy at the installation position of the power generation device, and an estimation unit Based on the prediction error estimated by, the correction unit for correcting the predicted value of natural energy for the second time zone after the first time zone at the installation position of the power generation device, and the second corrected by the correction unit The power generation amount of the power generation device for the second time zone is determined based on the predicted value of natural energy for the time zone and the power generation characteristics of the power generation device indicating the relationship between the natural energy and power generation amount. Power generation amount prediction apparatus comprising: a power generation amount prediction unit for measuring a is known (Patent Document 2).

JP 2013-51326 A JP 2016-111182 A

  However, in the prediction of the conventional PV power generation amount, the fact that the PV power generation amount is not uniform cannot be taken into account due to the shape of the cloud, etc., and the prediction accuracy may deteriorate.

  This invention is made | formed in view of said situation, and it aims at providing the photovoltaic power generation amount prediction apparatus and photovoltaic power generation amount prediction system which can estimate a photovoltaic power generation amount accurately.

  In order to achieve the above object, a photovoltaic power generation amount predicting apparatus according to the present invention obtains, for each area, a photovoltaic power generation amount at each position in the area as a photovoltaic power generation amount distribution, and prediction. Based on the solar power generation amount distribution of each area around the area including the target position, the solar power generation amount distribution of the area including the prediction target position after a predetermined time is predicted, and the predicted solar power generation distribution is obtained. And a prediction unit that predicts the amount of photovoltaic power generation at the prediction target position after the predetermined time.

  According to this invention, an acquisition part acquires the photovoltaic power generation amount of each position in the said area as a photovoltaic power generation amount distribution for every area. Then, the prediction unit predicts the photovoltaic power generation amount distribution in the area including the prediction target position after a predetermined time based on the respective solar power generation amount distributions in the areas around the area including the prediction target position. The amount of photovoltaic power generation at the prediction target position after the predetermined time is predicted based on the distribution of photovoltaic power generation.

  Thus, based on the solar power generation amount distribution of each area around the area including the prediction target position, the solar power generation amount distribution of the area including the prediction target position after the predetermined time is predicted, and after the predetermined time By predicting the amount of photovoltaic power generation at the prediction target position, the amount of photovoltaic power generation can be accurately predicted.

  As described above, according to the photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device and the photovoltaic power generation amount prediction system of the present invention, the effect that the photovoltaic power generation amount can be predicted with high accuracy is obtained.

It is a block diagram which shows the solar energy generation amount prediction system which concerns on the 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a block diagram which shows the server which concerns on the 1st Embodiment of this invention. It is a flowchart which shows the content of the PV electric power generation amount prediction process routine in the server which concerns on the 1st Embodiment of this invention.

  Embodiments of the present invention will be described below with reference to the drawings.

[First embodiment]
<System configuration of photovoltaic power generation prediction system>
As shown in FIG. 1, the photovoltaic power generation amount prediction system 100 according to the embodiment of the present invention includes a PV generator 10, a storage battery 12, a measuring instrument 14, and a management device 16 provided for each consumer. And a server 20. The management device 16 and the server 20 for each customer are connected to each other via a network 40 such as the Internet. The server 20 is an example of a photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device.

  The measuring instrument 14 measures the power generation amount of the PV generator 10 and outputs it to the management device 16. The management device 16 manages loads of various electric power devices including the PV generator 10 and the storage battery 12, and home appliances, etc., possessed by the consumer by the load control unit. Moreover, the management apparatus 16 transmits the measurement result of the measuring instrument 14 to the server 20 sequentially with a consumer's identification number and measurement time.

  Based on the measurement result of the PV power generation amount transmitted from the management device 16 for each consumer, the server 20 predicts the PV power generation amount of the prediction target consumer after a predetermined time from the present time, and The prediction result is transmitted to the management device 16.

  As illustrated in FIG. 2, the server 20 includes a communication unit 22, a data acquisition unit 24, a location information database 26 that stores location information for each customer, and a prediction unit 28. The prediction unit 28 is an example of a prediction unit and a weight determination unit.

  The location information database 26 stores the location information of the customer corresponding to each customer identification number.

  The data acquisition unit 24 uses the identification number of the customer for each PV power generation measurement result transmitted from the management device 16 for each customer received by the communication unit 22, and the location of the customer. Information is acquired from the position information database 26. For each area, the data acquisition unit 24 acquires the PV power generation amount at each position in the area as a distribution of the PV power generation amount. For example, for each mesh obtained by dividing the area, the PV power generation amount of the mesh is obtained based on the measurement result and position information of the PV power generation amount of each customer in the mesh, and the distribution of the PV power generation amount in the area To do. At this time, in the area, the mesh for which the PV power generation amount measurement result is not obtained is interpolated from the PV generation amount measurement result of the surrounding mesh to obtain the PV power generation amount, and the PV power generation amount of the mesh is obtained. What is necessary is just to make distribution of PV power generation amount in the said area.

  When the prediction unit 28 receives a prediction request for the power generation amount of the PV generator of the prediction target consumer by the communication unit 22, the prediction unit 28 determines an area including the prediction target consumer and its surrounding area. For example, an area including the prediction target consumer is determined as a prediction target area, and a plurality of areas around the prediction target area are determined as peripheral areas. The prediction unit 28 acquires the distribution of the PV power generation amount in the peripheral area for each of the determined peripheral areas.

  Then, the prediction unit 28 predicts the distribution of the PV power generation amount in the prediction target area after a predetermined time from the current time based on the temporal change data of the PV power generation distribution in each peripheral area.

  At this time, the weights for the surrounding areas may be determined based on the past wind direction and wind speed data, the previous wind direction and wind speed change data, or the wind direction and wind speed of the prediction target area obtained from weather information. The weight for each peripheral area is learned in advance for each combination of wind direction and wind speed. For example, the weight for the peripheral area on the windward is large, the higher the wind speed, the larger the weight for the distant peripheral area, and the slower the wind speed, the greater the weight for the nearby peripheral area. And the result of combining the distribution of the PV power generation amount in each peripheral area using the weight for each peripheral area is predicted as the distribution of the PV power generation amount in the prediction target area.

  In addition, the cloud shape is estimated from the distribution of PV power generation in the area, and the accuracy of prediction differs between the central part and the peripheral part of the cloud, so further consideration is given to a combination of the cloud shape and the accuracy prediction. Thus, the distribution of the PV power generation amount in the prediction target area may be predicted.

  The prediction unit 28 generates power from the PV generator 10 of each consumer in the prediction target area according to the positional information of each consumer in the prediction target area from the distribution of the PV power generation amount in the predicted prediction target area. Predict the amount.

  And the communication part 22 transmits the prediction result of the electric power generation amount of the PV generator 10 of each consumer of a prediction object area to the management apparatus 16 of each consumer in a prediction object area.

When the management device 16 of each customer in the prediction target area receives the prediction result of the power generation amount of the PV power generator 10, the load control unit causes various electric powers that the customer has to be optimized according to the prediction result. Control the load of equipment and home appliances. For example, when the control target is an air conditioner or a refrigerator, based on the prediction result, the output is increased and cooled in advance before the PV power generation amount decreases, and the output is decreased when the PV power generation amount decreases. The load can be leveled. In addition, the charge / discharge control unit controls the charge / discharge amount of the storage battery 12 that the consumer has so as to be optimized according to the prediction result. For example, based on the prediction result, when the PV power generation amount decreases, the discharge amount of the storage battery 12 is increased, and when the PV power generation amount increases, the charge amount of the storage battery 12 is increased.
Note that, as the “optimum”, power purchase fee minimization, primary energy consumption minimization, CO2 emission minimization, discharge charge minimization, and the like are assumed, but not limited thereto.

<Operation of Solar Power Generation Prediction System 100>
Next, the operation of the photovoltaic power generation amount prediction system 100 according to the present embodiment will be described.

  First, the measuring device 14 for each consumer sequentially measures the power generation amount of the PV power generator 10 and outputs it to the management device 16, and the management device 16 sequentially identifies the measurement result of the measuring device 14 to the consumer. It transmits to the server 20 with a number and measurement time.

  At this time, upon receiving a prediction request for the power generation amount of the PV generator 10 of the consumer to be predicted, the server 20 executes the PV power generation amount prediction processing routine shown in FIG.

  First, in step S <b> 100, the data acquisition unit 24 uses the identification number of each consumer for each PV power generation measurement result transmitted from the management device 16 for each consumer received by the communication unit 22. The position information of the customer is acquired from the position information database 26. The data acquisition unit 24 obtains the distribution of the PV power generation amount in the area based on the measurement result and the position information of the PV power generation amount of each customer in the area.

  Then, the prediction target area including the prediction target consumer and its peripheral area are determined, and the distribution of the PV power generation amount in the peripheral area is acquired for each of the determined peripheral areas.

  In step S102, the prediction unit 28 determines the weight for each peripheral area based on the wind direction and the wind speed of the prediction target area obtained from past data, previous change data, or weather information, and the weight for each peripheral area; Based on the temporal change data of the PV power generation amount distribution in each peripheral area, the distribution of the PV power generation amount in the prediction target area after a predetermined time from the current time is predicted.

  In step S104, the communication unit 22 transmits the prediction result of the power generation amount of the PV generator 10 of each consumer in the prediction target area to the management device 16 of each consumer in the prediction target area, thereby predicting the PV power generation amount. The processing routine ends.

  And the management apparatus 16 of each consumer in a prediction object area receives the prediction result of the electric power generation amount of the PV generator 10, and various electric power equipment which a consumer has so that it may become optimal according to a prediction result, and While controlling loads, such as a household appliance, the charge / discharge amount of the storage battery 12 which a consumer has is controlled.

  As described above, according to the photovoltaic power generation amount prediction system according to the first embodiment of the present invention, the predetermined amount is determined based on the respective photovoltaic power generation amount distributions in the areas around the area including the prediction target position. By predicting the photovoltaic power generation amount distribution in the area including the prediction target position after time and predicting the solar power generation amount at the prediction target position after a predetermined time, the solar power generation amount can be predicted with high accuracy. .

  In addition, by collecting a large amount of information, it is possible to predict a power generation amount with a wide range and high accuracy. Accurate power generation prediction is possible without purchasing expensive weather forecasts. Further, no additional measuring device is required, and the power generation amount can be predicted at a low cost. At home, the electric power generated by the PV generator can be used effectively, and the electricity charge can be reduced. By using the electric power generated by the PV generator in the home, the reverse power flow to the distribution system can be reduced and the voltage rise can be reduced.

[Second Embodiment]
Next, a photovoltaic power generation amount prediction system according to the second embodiment will be described. In addition, since the photovoltaic power generation amount prediction system according to the second embodiment has the same configuration as the photovoltaic power generation amount prediction system according to the first embodiment, the same reference numerals are given and description thereof is omitted. .

  In the second embodiment, the PV power generation distribution in the area to be predicted is predicted from the PV power generation distribution in the surrounding area on the windward using an anemometer and an anemometer. This is different from the embodiment.

  In the photovoltaic power generation amount prediction system 100 according to the second embodiment, an anemometer and an anemometer are provided in each area, and the anemometer and the anemometer sequentially transmit measurement results to the server 20. .

  The data acquisition unit 24 of the server 20 further acquires the wind direction and wind speed measurement results received from the anemometer and anemometer provided in the prediction target area including the consumers to be predicted. The data acquisition unit 24 is an example of an acquisition unit and a wind information acquisition unit.

  Then, the prediction unit 28 of the server 20 determines each area that is upstream from the prediction target area as the windward area. The prediction unit 28 acquires the distribution of the PV power generation amount in the upwind area for each determined upwind area. Then, the prediction unit 28 predicts the distribution of the PV power generation amount in the prediction target area after a predetermined time from the current time, based on the distribution of the PV power generation amount in each windward area and the measurement result of the wind speed.

  At this time, the weight for each upwind area is determined based on the measurement result of the wind speed. The weight for each windward area is learned in advance for each wind speed. For example, the faster the wind speed, the greater the weight for a distant upwind area, and the slower the wind speed, the greater the weight for a nearby upwind area. Then, the result of synthesizing the distribution of the PV power generation amount in each windward area using the weight for each windward area is predicted as the distribution of the PV power generation amount in the prediction target area.

  The prediction unit 28 predicts the power generation amount of each consumer's PV generator in the prediction target area from the distribution of the predicted PV power generation amount in the prediction target area.

  In addition, about the other structure and effect | action in the solar energy generation amount prediction system which concern on 2nd Embodiment, since it is the same as that of 1st Embodiment, description is abbreviate | omitted.

  As explained above, according to the photovoltaic power generation amount prediction system according to the second embodiment of the present invention, based on the respective photovoltaic power generation amount distributions in the upwind area of the area including the prediction target position, Predicting the amount of photovoltaic power generation in an area including a prediction target position after a predetermined time and predicting the amount of photovoltaic power generation at the prediction target position after a predetermined time can accurately predict the amount of photovoltaic power generation it can.

  Note that the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiment, and various modifications and applications are possible without departing from the gist of the present invention.

  For example, not only a PV power generation amount measuring device but also a pyranometer may be provided. In this case, it is possible to distinguish the effects of clouds from the effects of dirt on the PV surface, shadows of neighboring buildings, etc., and more accurate power generation prediction is possible.

  Further, the cloud shape estimated from the distribution of the PV power generation amount may be stored in a database that stores past cloud movements and used for prediction calculation, so that prediction with higher accuracy may be performed.

  Further, when a change in weather is detected using the cloud shape estimated from the distribution of PV power generation amount, it may be distributed to consumers as information on laundry drying.

  Alternatively, the cloud shape estimated from the distribution of the PV power generation amount may be used to predict the clear sky time, calculate the dry level of the laundry, and distribute it to the consumer as laundry drying information.

DESCRIPTION OF SYMBOLS 10 PV generator 12 Storage battery 14 Measuring device 16 Management apparatus 20 Server 22 Communication part 24 Data acquisition part 26 Location information database 28 Prediction part 40 Network

Claims (6)

For each area, an acquisition unit that acquires a photovoltaic power generation amount at each position in the area as a solar power generation amount distribution;
Based on the solar power generation amount distribution of each area around the area including the prediction target position, the solar power generation amount distribution of the area including the prediction target position after a predetermined time is predicted, and the predicted solar power generation distribution A prediction unit that predicts the amount of photovoltaic power generation at the prediction target position after the predetermined time,
Photovoltaic power generation prediction device including A wind information acquisition unit for acquiring measurement results of wind direction information and wind speed information;
A weight determination unit that determines a weight for each solar power generation amount distribution in an area around the area including the prediction target position based on the measurement result of the acquired wind direction information and wind speed information;
The prediction unit uses a weight for each photovoltaic power generation distribution in an area around the area including the determined prediction target position, and uses the weight for the solar power generation distribution in the area including the prediction target position after the predetermined time. The photovoltaic power generation amount prediction apparatus according to claim 1, wherein The photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device according to claim 1 or 2,
A photovoltaic power generation amount prediction system including a management device that is provided for each consumer and transmits a measurement result of the photovoltaic power generation amount of a solar power generator to the photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device,
The photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device
A position information database for storing position information for each consumer;
The said acquisition part is based on the measurement result of the photovoltaic power generation amount transmitted from the measuring instrument provided for every said consumer, and the positional information for every said consumer, The said photovoltaic power generation amount distribution for every said area Get solar power forecasting system. The photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device further transmits the prediction result of the photovoltaic power generation amount to the management device of the consumer at the prediction target position,
The said management apparatus is a photovoltaic power generation amount prediction system of Claim 3 containing the load control part which controls load based on the received prediction result of the said photovoltaic power generation amount. The photovoltaic power generation amount prediction device further transmits the prediction result of the photovoltaic power generation amount to the management device of the consumer at the prediction target position,
The said management apparatus is a photovoltaic generation amount prediction system of Claim 3 or 4 containing the charging / discharging control part which controls the charging / discharging amount of a storage battery based on the received prediction result of the said photovoltaic generation amount. The prediction unit estimates, for each of the surrounding areas, the photovoltaic power generation amount at each position where the photovoltaic power generation amount is not obtained in the area, based on the acquired photovoltaic power generation amount distribution of the area. And
The solar power generation amount distribution of an area including a prediction target position after a predetermined time is predicted based on the solar power generation amount distribution of the area including the estimated solar power generation for each of the surrounding areas. The photovoltaic power generation amount prediction system according to any one of claims 1 to 5.